Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 11, 2004
Billmon: Play It As It Lays

New Post at the Whiskey Bar. Comments may go here.

Comments

as usual, Billmon struck a nerve…as an American I submit that the greatest single “character flaw” that the population continues to suffer from is an inability to retain active memories of events once they are no longer current affairs. It’s easy to blame the press and media, though they are obviously focused on today’s news, stale news doesn’t sell.
It’s become an easy game for those in power with poor intentions to manipulate events based on the knowledge that this memory loss is currency promoting their continued abuses.
Although a growing proportion of the voting public are utilizing the internet and it’s evolving news sources to connect the dots, I find it interesting that the biggest spikes in interest in past sordid affairs come when another politico publishes a tell-all book, and gets a few headlines; the book (or documentary in M. Moore’s case) itself becomes fodder for the news cycle.
The inability to manage the constant bombardment and sensory overkill of the “information age” may yet become responsible for putting much of the rest of the world and even ourselves back to the stone age.
Is it any wonder that the most recent investments by the Carlyle Group have been in information technology firms?

Posted by: route66 | Jul 11 2004 11:31 utc | 1

I do some partime lecturing in Financial Reporting to final year undergraduates.
At the time Enron was all over the press I got my sixty or so students to do individual projects on what went wrong at Enron. By and large, their work was excellent and some of the more creative student went off topic regarding the morality of Enron employees vis a vis buying hookers for parties etc.
Two points to make.
1. There must be thousands upikn thousands of “burnt” investors out there and they should be screaming from the rooftops! (Was Billmon burnt also?) and:
2. I hope my sixty or so students have learnt from the work they did in their Enron project.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 11 2004 12:13 utc | 2

upikn = upon
Any read TPM lately.
We went to war because someone mispelt Iran as Iraq. It was Iran that was buying the yellowcake.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 11 2004 12:15 utc | 3

What I found interesting about the details of the Lay indictment is that Skilling seems to be the one to be the target of all the most serious charges about what the company actually did. Lay is mostly hit for lying to investors and analysts. But the most strongly worded charge against Lay as I read it relates to the bank fraud (see page 53 of the indictment), which is all on him personally.

Posted by: mats | Jul 11 2004 14:11 utc | 4

Patrick Wood III! My god, it’s kind of poetic, the pervasiveness of this level of corruption.
I remember thinking at the time of the California crisis that it had to be a scam. How could there be an energy shortage in one of the richest places on earth? An energy shortage in Kabul I can understand, but not California.
The odd thing was that at the same time on the other side of the Pacific Ocean there were power cuts in Siberia as a result of failing infrastructure.
How could portions of the the US and the former USSR mirror each other in this way? Downright odd.
The US has been well and truly fucked by these guys. Fighting a murderous war for energy resources in the Mid East is more of the same.
And Cheney and Lay and the rest of these oil industry guys are the ones who won’t sign up to Kyoto, and don’t care if the whole planet goes down with them.

Posted by: four more wars | Jul 11 2004 14:31 utc | 5

Rahul Mahajan’s post at Empire Notes is a useful supplement to Billmon’s.
The extent to which the Clinton administration exerted diplomatic and economic pressure on behalf of Enron abroad is not widely understood. This shoddy history poses a much bigger obstacle to effective Dem. partisan use of the Enron crimes than Ken Lay’s relatively puny contributions to Ann Richards or his presence on the board of a Heinz-funded org.

Posted by: Nell Lancaster | Jul 11 2004 15:29 utc | 6

Part of the problem with the California energy crisis was the stupid way in which the auctions were set up in the first place. That system was begging for abuse, as many people have pointed out.

Posted by: x | Jul 11 2004 15:48 utc | 7

“Several of Enron’s unindicted co-conspirators – like the VP of the US and the head of the FERC – are still on the public payroll, and apparently still involved in the cover up…”
Disturbing that this malaise is unremarkable to so many. Eisenhower’s military-industrial complex has come of age, to a universal yawn.
In a not entirely unrelated theater, lies told to make war in iraq have killed thousands. At least in Britain, Blair might pay the price, since few can now listen to his ideas without questioning his fundamental judgement… A brilliant mind who made one major mistake- valuing economic ties before principles. Who speaks for the innocent?

Posted by: Ramlad | Jul 11 2004 15:55 utc | 8

Not sure that Blair is that bright. I lean more and more to Cloned Poster’s contention that he may be CIA, which would also make him as dumb as a brick IMO.
Blair’s putative, much-vaunted personal project is Europe, but by stumbling after the US into Iraq he has opened up one almighty breach with the UK’s natural allies in the EU (60% of UK trade is with France alone). How could that be classed as brilliant?
Now that the UK is thoroughly disgusted with him and doesn’t believe a word he says, he is about to embark on a major effort to “sell” the electorate the new EU constitution.
The likely outcome, that UK voters would reject it – not just because Blair now has zero credibility, but also because of the horrific xenophobia of much of the UK populace, now being played on by bastards like the leisure center deputy managers of UKIP – would be a result that benefits only the US, which is already engaged in efforts to split the EU periphery (former Eastern Soviet bloc, UK, nordic countries) from the key elements in the middle (France, Germany).
The UK is thus potentially about to drift out of the mainstream of the EU project at great detriment to its own national interest, as well as to the supranational interest. A strong EU, as a counterweight to lawless US global hegemony, would benefit us all.
Blair has either screwed up royally (idiot), or been paid to do so (CIA), I can’t decide which yet.

Posted by: four more wars | Jul 11 2004 16:16 utc | 9

4 more wars – good points. I was merely
reacting to the growing reports that
Britain is now one of the richest nations
in Europe. Blair has some reponsibility.
I grew up in the 80s, when the UK was
universally derided for the abysmal 70s…

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 11 2004 16:26 utc | 10

America has always displayed a sinful indulgence towards its robber barons and Kennie Boy’s acts are child’s play compared to the truly monstrous actions of the Rockefeller, Carnegie, Morgan, etc. of the past.
Nothing new there.
What is somewhat different, however, is that in them good ol’ days there were some Jesse James and Butch Cassidys to plunder the rich bastards and entertain the proles.
A tradition still in existence in Latin America where the kidnaping of the rich is the revenge of the poor.
I am truly, truly puzzled that not a single disgruntled employee, enterprising white trash or greedy gangsta hasn’t yet targetted those fat cats for what Alex in CLOCKWORK ORANGE called “a real kick and good for laughs and lashings of the old ultraviolence.”
Truly a mystery to me.

Posted by: Lupin | Jul 11 2004 16:58 utc | 11

4MW,
With all due respect, don’t think Tony’s brilliance is much of an issue here. The main point is that he was corraled into a role from which can cannot escape, and so must continue to go along with a program which is most likely not his own.
This is true with most of these players; they get in and they can’t get out. With Blair my suspicion for a long time has been that he is under the yoke of heavy blackmail; serious shit will happen to him and his family is he steps out of line.
In the Kelly case, in which a lead scientist was snuffed for daring to threaten to tell secrets, the look on Blair’s face when he heard the news spoke more than a thousand words. Fear. He knew he could be next if he betrayed anyone or any compromising information.
Bush is in a similar position but he is dumb enough to sorta enjoy it. What better career opportunities did he have? And he, more than Blair, has been conditioned to believe that he can do anything he wants with no fear of serious personal repercussions. But the Dub too has learned fear, as is so artfully demonstrated in the long lingering shots of his face in F-9/11.
The point is that there really is a bigger, hidden-for-now power back there making all this insane shit happen, while we waste a ton of bandwidth chasing after the puppets.
The evidence is out there and available; I’m sure you have seen a lot of it.
Lupin, One big difference is that J. James and gang got away with it for a long time, didn’t they? Wild West. For comparison look at Waco, where a whole community was incinerated for being a bit odd. Big Brother was beginning to flex his muscles.

Posted by: rapt | Jul 11 2004 17:37 utc | 12

@route66
It’s become an easy game for those in power with poor intentions to manipulate events based on the knowledge that this memory loss is currency promoting their continued abuses.
Nicely put, esp. (if I read you correctly) the description of memory loss as a form of political currency.

Posted by: ralphbon | Jul 11 2004 17:47 utc | 13

Britain is now one of the richest nations
in Europe.

Well, there’s a humungous property bubble that’s been building up there over the past decade or so that probably accounts for much of this putative “wealth”. And who knows when that’s going to go pop as it can’t be infinitely sustainable (lowest available prices in many places are fast becoming out of the reach of those even on middle-class incomes)?
“Richest nation” also requires qualification, because even if that’s so, it’s not equitably spread. Much of the wealth is skewed towards London and the south-east, and the economy of London itself I think is bigger than that of Finland. There’s some quite horrific poverty if you go north, and a lot of towns such as those in the north-east that historically have seen some pretty serious resistance to the depredations of capital now seem to be zombified out of the fight by a mix of Prozac for the women, Ritalin for the kids and crack cocaine or beer for the men.
Not that I’m gloomy or anything.
But to put this post back on topic: according to Forbes Ken Lay is almost certainly going down:
Lay would have had a slightly better chance had he been indicted for first-degree murder, where 9% of the accused in federal courts were freed last year. The odds of acquittal on securities charges are just more than 7%, and they likely fade even further for multiple-count indictments such as the one Lay faces.
O happy day.

Posted by: four more wars | Jul 11 2004 17:50 utc | 14

On Ken Lay:
That 7% or less odds for acquittal is indeed good news. Lay has gotta go down but I want him to take somebody with him. Georgie Boy. What are the odds on that one?
I would love to have an earpiece in the prosecutors’ conference room; don’t you know those guys are all painfully aware that the Big Boss is on the carpet here? And Kenny will of course be pressured to tell stories in exchange for something. Can they really keep the stories under wraps if the Dub somehow becomes part of the scam?
Also waiting breathlessly for the Plame case to break out into the open. Someone said that dumping Cheney would boost the repugs’ chances, but I think it would be just the first card in the house to fall. Or domino or something like that.
Am beginning to feel some positive vibes here.

Posted by: rapt | Jul 11 2004 18:19 utc | 15

America has always displayed a sinful indulgence towards its robber barons
Umm . . . not always. It’s ebbed and flowed throughout our history.
The Anarchist Movement was a time when the rich needed their gun thugs to protect them. There was a bombing on Wall Street — the House of Morgan still bears the scars. In a labor march up 5th Avenue, the protestors rang the doorbells of the rich and powerful — who cowered inside their mansions. Now, they’ve all moved to their estates in gated communities.
In the late 60’s, groups like the Weather Underground targeted the wealthy — that’s what the kidnapping of Patty Hearst was all about.
At any rate, since most everyone would like to be rich, we tend to cut them a lot of slack. When most are comfortable, this is especially so — which is why economic pain is the precursor of political upheaval.
Now, if we can just overcome the wall to wall din of the the right wing media . . .

Posted by: ck | Jul 11 2004 18:19 utc | 16

If you can get BBC1 on the TV, watch Panorama tonight sometime after 10pm GMT.
Payback time has started for Auntie.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 11 2004 18:58 utc | 17

I can’t get that channel Cloned; can you post a synopsis tomorrow? Would love to hear.

Posted by: rapt | Jul 11 2004 19:11 utc | 18

four more wars, that 7% stat baffles me. I’d think a typical jury would have a hard time understanding accounting & securities law. Perhaps the typical case involves testimony implicating the defendant, or at least solid evidence that they participated, neither of which I know to exist here.
Enron is a far more complex fraud than the average insider trading case. The accounting structures that hid Enron’s debts and created artificial assets were complex and fooled the bankers. Skilling also claimed not to know it was illegal, and he had an MBA from Harvard B-School.
I expect the aging Lay, who returned to the CEO role reluctantly, will claim to be just a simple good ol’ boy who there to lobby Presidents and Prime Ministers and land Enron big, new deals, and relied on his accounting & finance guys take care of the number-crunching.
But I also agree with Billmon. This is only the tip of the iceberg of outrage I feel about corporate influence on our government.
Someone asked me the other day why I voted Nader in 2000. Looking back, it was because I did finance in the internet industry, and watched this shit happen first hand. I watched them lie to investors, misrepresent the state of the business, misstate key metrics, and rampantly trade on insider information. The worst was near the end when the business was drying up, execs sold $millions of stock, all while simultaneously telling investors the next quarter would be “even better” & meanwhile conducting quiet layoffs and cancelling bonuses & salary increases for everyone else. It was all too easy because nobody in regulatory agencies seemed to be watching. I didn’t see the dems (especially Joe “Mr stock option” Lieberman) doing much to change that.
Lastly, speaking of electricity shortages and industry reform, what’s been done to fix what caused the 2003 blackout? The foxes are still guarding the henhouse, big time.

Posted by: dirtgirl | Jul 11 2004 19:53 utc | 19

@rapt
Visit the Guardian website when you wake up. I’ll give my take also later.
Bernhard, you’re in Germany. Maybe a “What the Butler saw” thread could be opened tomorrow.
Blair has to be nailed. Like the Messiah he thinks he is.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jul 11 2004 20:01 utc | 20

Lupin: “I am truly, truly puzzled that not a single disgruntled employee, enterprising white trash or greedy gangsta hasn’t yet targetted those fat cats”
My thoughts exactly. What does it tell of most of the American people, that they prefer to shoot their co-workers and underlings that are as enslaved as them, rather than terminate the real culprits, the bastards at the top. In fact, I’m frankly disappointed and even disgusted that there hasn’t been any laid-off guy from WorldCom or Enron who decided to give their due to their boards.
4 more wars:
From what I see, Blair pushes for EU Constitution *because* he knows the English will never buy it from him. He does this precisely in an attempt to destroy it. After all, keep in mind the timeline: Blair goes to Washington to meet Bush, they speak about Iraq, notice the US position is weaker than ever, that UK politics are side-lined, and that “Old Europe” is more influential than ever. Sounds bad. Blair comes back to London, and a couple of days after he announces that the Brits will vote on the Constitution. He obviously got his orders from DC that he should not only support it but make people vote on it to ensure a massive rejection by the English.
UKIP: these guys are fucking morons. There is NO independance for UK. They can only choose between being part of the coalition of powers leading Europe or being the slave of the US. UKIP chooses to get out of Europe, which means they choose to be a satellite of the US under its complete control. They are bloody traitors and should be hung as such. (not that Blair, Hoon and Straw deserves much more…)
rapt: So, you suppose Kelly was killed? Sounds more likely than the official explanation to me, too.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 11 2004 20:50 utc | 21

Clueless, I have come to believe that almost ALL official explanations are lies. In the Kelly case, if you followed it, there was a LOT of evidence pointing to murder; we had means and motive, plus a bunch of physical evidence that was destroyed or suppressed.
BTW, I feel threatened when you lump all the “bastards at the top” into a group that needs to be shot on sight. Can we be a bit more discerning in our accusations?

Posted by: rapt | Jul 11 2004 21:13 utc | 22

The accounting structures that hid Enron’s debts and created artificial assets were complex and fooled the bankers. Skilling also claimed not to know it was illegal, and he had an MBA from Harvard B-School.
Yeah, Enron really needed those 600 offshore vehicles it set up on the Cayman Islands, every company does! And since when did an MBA from anywhere inoculate against being a crook?
Seriously though, like Billmon says, these cases take time to put together because they’re done so in a painstaking fashion, and because of that they generally stick. Here’s hoping, and God, wouldn’t it be fun to be on that jury?
“Fooled” is kind of moot too. In the case of Enron’s auditor, Arthur Andersen, I think it proved to be more like “complicit” on account of them being in receipt of big bucks in consultancy fees, as well for those for accountancy. Kind of dents the old impartiality (one can only guess what the evidence was that they shredded).
But it wasn’t just a systems failure among those involved, the critical scrutiny Enron should have come in for from outside was missing (strong parallels with the role of the SCLM in the lead-up to the Iraq war, I think). In fact, much of the the financial press did the opposite, puffing up Enron at every opportunity. For me, it’s tantamount to complicity when the hard questions don’t get asked (pace Greg Palast). Nothing is that complicated, and Enron’s accounts, in all their footnoted glory, were in the public domain.
(FWIW a large company I occasionally freelance for books its revenue differently now in a change instituted directly as a result of the Enron debacle. So maybe some good has come out of all this after all.)

Posted by: four more wars | Jul 11 2004 21:20 utc | 23

Panorama is giving Blair a kicking, video available here (click on “video – latest programme” in r/h corner).

Posted by: four more wars | Jul 11 2004 21:57 utc | 24

BTW, I feel threatened when you lump all the “bastards at the top” into a group that needs to be shot on sight.
I feel appalled to find discussion of killing as a solution to anything in these comments, period. Everyone’s calmly accepting Lupin’s disappointment at lack of murder/revenge for Enron corruption… Not quite the environment I’d hoped to find here.
Browbeating on behalf of voting as effective action gets you banned (if you’re relentless and rude enough).
Expressing disappointment that no one has physically attacked Enron execs doesn’t even bring a raised eyebrow or murmur of disapproval, much less any intervention from the moderator.
Am I missing something?

Posted by: Nell Lancaster | Jul 11 2004 23:26 utc | 25

rapt: well, indeed, with Kelly there were reasons to kill him, and at first people weren’t so sure he committed suicide. I mean, the British papers and tabloids first articles basically had headlines like “mole found dead”, not “suicidal expert”.
And no worry with my other comments. I mean, it’s silly to dump all the CEOs there, though most of them clearly fit. But if people had any judgment, they could quite easily sort the good from the bad and just plain crooked. But people are coward and prefer to go after weaker than them when it comes to blame the culprits, because the powerful are, well, powerful, and can defend themselves, which the weaker can’t. So, we have far-right fascists claiming foreign workers or Jews are the Enemy that threatens the nation and causes the lower and middle classes to suffer.
I can’t help but feel depressed when I think of what would’ve happened to the world if millions of Germans, instead of being suckered for years and even centuries to think the Jews were the bad guys had, instead of killin millions of innocents, gone after a few thousands of wealthy capitalists that basically owned the country and went fat with the war and the depression. What if the German revolution had succeeded in 1919? No Stalin thanks to a less extreme influence? No WWI? No Cold War? Capitalism forced to find an actuyl compromise? No outrageous American “free-market” empire over the whole miserable planet? Or just more of the same? Or even stalinist take-over in the capitalist West, since there’s no way it could win a world war or even a cold war in the 1920/30s against the combined strength of Germany and Russia?
OK, just another silly rant…

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 11 2004 23:30 utc | 26

Lupin @ 12:58 pm –

I am truly, truly puzzled that not a single disgruntled employee, enterprising white trash or greedy gangsta hasn’t yet targetted those fat cats for what Alex in CLOCKWORK ORANGE called “a real kick and good for laughs and lashings of the old ultraviolence.”

(Emphasis mine)
Nell Lancaster @ 7:26 pm –

Am I missing something?

Uh, yeah.
1)That puzzled does not equal disappointed.
2)That Lupin is a (no offense) grizzled veteran of this community, and we truly, truly love and respect our silverbacks, and cut them all kinds of slack.
3)That nobody was banned.
4)That Chewbacca is a Wookiee from the planet Kashyyyk, but Chewbacca lives on the planet Endor.
I rest my case.

Posted by: sasando | Jul 12 2004 1:34 utc | 27

I understand where Lupin was coming from…after the Newsweek article re. the possibility of postponing the November election and the resulting blogversations on Kos and Atrios tonight I think he may be right on target, no pun intended. We may have already reached a point of no return, in large part due to the apathy I mentioned in my first post way up top. While I’m no advocate of violence I am an advocate of my freedoms and rights as I have grown to expect them. While certain events may have infringed on those expectations, when I witness the machinations of Ashcroft and Ridge and their color coded claims of falling skies, well, it honestly makes me reconsider my policy of not having guns in my home because of the children. I’m now thinking my children deserve and need such protection, and I’m getting the feeling it won’t be protection from Islamic terrorists that is required.

Posted by: route66 | Jul 12 2004 2:18 utc | 28

Route 66, my husband, who totally favors gun control in every way, shape or form, announced that in the event the November election was postponed, he would be purchasing firearms. I was rather taken aback by that.

Posted by: sallyh | Jul 12 2004 3:54 utc | 29

Folks, I’m not an economist, and I’m not an investor–only a reader of the WSJ, which I think I can follow some of the time, and know I can’t follow a lot of the time. The value, for me, of the WSJ’s reporting (I don’t bother with its editorial pages), is its effort, in principle, to help us follow the gross outlines, and even some of the nuances, of the big hard stories.
At the time the Enron story broke, I was impressed by the WSJ’s diligent pursuit of the story–so diligent that the paper itself became a player of sorts–and even more impressed by the paper’s own recognition that it had been blindsided by Enron, and by a number of other stories at the time as well.
The story caught them by surprise, not just because of the malfeasances involved, but because of the perplexities involved. No one could follow the thing, and indeed no one had really followed it from the start (somewhere back in ’96 or ’97, I gather, at least where Skilling and Fastow are concerned).
To this day, there are two questions that remain mysterious to me–so much so that I don’t know how to ask them without sounding idiotic. Trusting you folks to forbear, I’ll try to share those questions.
The first question is this: what does it mean when we say that “money is lost”? In the crash of ’29 it seems to have meant one thing, in the events of 2001, it seems to have meant another.
It may be that the word “money” means different things at the two moments in time (I find this counter-intuitive, but I have to put it on the table). But even if the word means one and the same thing, the structural calamities marking the Great Crash seem to have been dispersed, mitigated or largely absent in 2001 and after–“seems,” that is, to the outsider that I am. In my own case, I know that the directors of my state pension fund have joined in a suit to recover some money from Enron, but the money lost, whatever that money “is”, represents a small piece of the pension’s portfolio. Other pension funds, I know, are not so fortunate.
The opacity of the whole thing is not just a function of the outsider’s ignorance in this case, because the insiders were ignorant too. Here, I might mention the point that an M&A guy explained to me once: “these financial instruments are invented during the deal”–he was referring to some M&A deals that had lost me completely–“and they are devised by one side largely to confuse the other. Part of my job is to figure this out, and when I get lost, which happens from time to time, I hold it against the party that can’t explain itself clearly”. This was a bit of common-sense much overlooked in the Enron case, according to the WSJ, etc.
Here’s another instance of such insider opacity: another good friend, an honest and able lawyer who works with FERC, told me a year ago that, to his astonishment, the Enron deals in the California crisis that he’d been studying were not, so far as he could tell, actionable. It was his impression at the time (perhaps his mind has changed since) that Enron had done its homework where the letter of the law was concerned. It was another instance, if you will, of blindsiding: my friend’s sympathies were entirely with California–he was really outraged at Enron–but he could not, in all rigor, find them on the wrong side of the law.
Anyway, I don’t know how badly we’ve been hurt–compared, say, to 1929–and I don’t quite see how it could have been prevented, given the craft and agendas of various players, aided, abetted and enabled by other players. I also don’t know what we “lost”: are we poorer, absolutely, in 2004 than we were in 1994? If so, then the confusion (my own) could be cleared up very quickly.
Talking to Kenneth Lay about these things is surely a waste of time. I don’t see how an explanation, by him, of his misdeeds can be very instructive or instructive. He isn’t inventive enough, he’s really a politician.
On the other hand, talking to Andrew Fastow–if one could catch him in a moment of generous candor, in which he really tried to walk us through the deals as they unfolded–might be a lot more fruitful. Unless, of course, he’s only a sociopath, in which case we’d also be wasting our time. Lay plays dumb, and he’s convincing; Fastow plays smart, and he’s convincing too.
One of these Wall Street guys once gave me a simple rule of thumb for deciding whether a man is a criminal or not: did anyone lose money doing business with the guy? If no one lost money, then you shouldn’t suppose a crime. The positive example would be a Ponzi scheme. The negative example–hard to prove, like any negative–would be Michael Milken. As far as he could tell–and he wasn’t close to the situation, so he wasn’t speaking as an expert–Milken didn’t lose money for people. Rather the contrary.
Which leaves me back where I started: do we know what the word “money” means? I’m not asking–and the questions may be the same, but I need to be shown this, or at least reminded of it–do we know the value of a buck, I’m asking do we know the meaning of “money” as it morphs and swells and shrinks in the world of finance?
I don’t expect an answer to any of this–hell, the question may be too dumb to talk about–but I will admit that it colors my reading of something like the day-to-day account of a trial at law. I don’t always feel enlightened by a trial; as good as the verdict and sentence may be, the trial itself is not necessarily instructive.

Posted by: alabama | Jul 12 2004 6:05 utc | 30

It’s a mark of my maladroitness in discussing finance that I didn’t ask two questions, as promised, in the post above, I only asked one. Maybe not even one. Or maybe more than two. Briefly, then: what is “money”, and are we poorer than we were a decade ago?
For the record, I should mention that I’ll depend, when retired, on the benefits of Social Security, TIAA-CREF, and the State Teachers Retirement Fund. No big scores in the marketplace!

Posted by: alabama | Jul 12 2004 6:15 utc | 31

I also forgot to mention that these questions were prompted by four more wars and dirtgirl, along with others on this thread. I’m not at the stage where I can track the specific points you make–whence the lack of focus.

Posted by: alabama | Jul 12 2004 6:22 utc | 32

Alabame: I suppose actual economist would make a better reply. E-mailing Paul Krugman would definitely get you a better and more accurate answer than my ramblings, but if I can provide some unenlightened considerations…
Are we poorer now?
Good question. One thing to ponder is the classical Malthusian trick. The country may be wealthier now than 10 years ago – it could, though the massive outsourcing and internal destruction of industrial capacities may be enough to draw it down. On the other hand, with millions more people in the US, if the national growth didn’t outperform the demographic growth, people definitely are poorer since their share of the pie isn’t as big as it was 10 years ago. Of course for an apt comparison, you’d have to take inflation into account. The key difference between the nation’s wealth and the average guy’s wealth and income is interesting in Western societies, but it’s really a big deal in many Third World countries, where population growth is so impressive any economic growth is quickly wiped out – you even see it in theoretically wealthy Saudi Arabia.
That’s the general stuff. Then, you’d have to keep in mind I just mention the most basic and quite often dubious statistic, the average. To have a more accurate picture, we would then have to check the median of American wealth and income; the median being the limit between the 50% who have more and the 50% who have less – and obviously the median is lower than the average, because a few billionaires earning millions a month make up for thousands of lower-class employees (or unemployed people).
That said, I don’t really have any meaningful figures right now, so it was just a theoretical reflection on what would mean the “are we better or worse”. My gut feeling is most people aren’t better, and a good deal are worse.
Money and crash: as far as I’m concerned, I’d say all the “money” in stock market is basically virtual money, since it doesn’t have any relation to the actual worth of the company and doesn’t vary according to the company’s value, but according to expecter profits, and other fanciful wishful thinking. The only real money in play is when stocks are sold and bought. There wasn’t more real money in late 1999 than in late 2001 probably. People were just ready to buy stocks much higher in 1999, hoping they would continue to increase in value.
I tend to think the actual loss of money for most of the people occurred when they actually lost it, that is when they bought a bill of goods in 1998/1999, emptied their bank accounts to buy Amazon, AskJeeves, Enron, Worldcom, and bought over-valued stocks from wealthy bankers who knew it was already over-valued and just waited for some suckers. But that doesn’t mean money was lost, all in all, just that many lost much of it and a happy few benefitted a lot.
Then, I may be way of base with my interpretations…

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Jul 12 2004 8:42 utc | 33

Bravo, sasando.
I had that coming. Got disoriented between the Annex and here. And was reading too much into Lupin’s post and reaction to it.
If, as suggested above, there ends up being very little legal accountability because of the extent to which the system has been gamed, and next to no redress for all the people who lost money, then… well, Lupin’s point is well taken.

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 12 2004 12:47 utc | 34

That’s me at 8:47. Off to have coffee.

Posted by: Nell Lancaster | Jul 12 2004 12:48 utc | 35

CluelessJoe, I haven’t e-mailed Krugman (he’s a busy man, don’t you suppose?), but I’ve spent some time trying to pursue the questions you suggest. No great progress at this time.
Too many variables? In the Great Crash, money disappeared, consumers disappeared, and manufacturing disappeared. In 3001? Non-money disappeared, consumers remained, manufacturing remained (but not always here, of course).
The “job creation” thing is downright spectral. Reading some things, I think we’re not far from 1934. Reading others, I think we’re not far from 1994. So we’ll just have to work away at this one….

Posted by: alabama | Jul 13 2004 18:24 utc | 36