Ukraine Open Thread 2022-128
Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Iran Confirms Drone Sale To Russia - But What Will It Buy In Exchange?
Small birds do not taste well and their small bones makes eating them a fickle. I will have overcome that though as I will now have to eat some crow.
On July 12 Moon of Alabama headlined:
No, Iran Will Not Deliver Armed Drones To Russia
In March this year we were treated to an onslaught of obviously false claims that China would deliver weapons to Russia for the fight in Ukraine.
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Now an equally stupid claim was launched by the very same liar who launched the fake Chinese weapons claim.White House: Iran set to deliver armed drones to Russia - AP - Jul 7, 2022
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Russia has absolutely no need to buy drones from Iran. Besides that it is dubious that Iran would be able to deliver some and certainly not 'several hundreds'.
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The whole issues is just a talking point designed to put Iran and Russia into the same 'baddies' binder for Biden's talks in the Middle East. The countries there may not like Iran but they will certainly not allow for a condemnation of Russia. The whole idea is, as many others Sullivan had, stupid to begin with.So no, there will not be any Iranian drones going to Russia or fly over Ukraine.
I, like the other Iran-watch writers I quoted, was wrong.
Elijah J. Magnier, who has excellent contacts within the 'axis of resistance' led by Iran, reports:
Russia buys 1,000 drones from Iran and expands the level of strategic cooperation
Cont. reading: Iran Confirms Drone Sale To Russia - But What Will It Buy In Exchange?
Ukraine's Mystic Kherson Offensive Did Not, And Will Not Happen
There has been much talk in 'western' media about a Ukrainian offensive in the southern Kherson region. However most of the claims made about it seem to be divorced from the observable realities on the ground. The detailed look below provides that there is no such offensive and that there is little chance that there will ever be one.
The purported offensive has for months been a core talking point:
- Ukraine Battle Expands as Kyiv Launches Counteroffensive - New York Times - May 29, 2022
- Ukraine Regains Some Territory in Counter-Offensive in Kherson Area - Defence Ministry - Reuters - Jun 9, 2022
- Near Kherson, Ukrainians regain territory in major counteroffensive - Washington Post - Jun 29, 2022
- Ukraine prepares a counter-offensive to retake Kherson province - Economist - Jul 3, 2022
- Kherson cut off: Ukrainian counter-offensive gaining momentum in southern city - Fox News - Jul 29, 2022
Lets look at the map of the Kherson area and how it has changed over time. LiveUAmap, the source used here for these maps, is know to be more in favor of Ukrainian claims than Russian ones. The red parts are held by Russian forces.
This is the Kherson area as depicted on May 13, 2022:
Source LiveUAmap 13.5. - bigger
This is the Kherson area as depicted on May 14, 2022:
Cont. reading: Ukraine's Mystic Kherson Offensive Did Not, And Will Not Happen
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-127
Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (NOT Ukraine) Thread 2022-126
News & views NOT related to the Ukraine conflict ...
How Ukraine Lost Its Riches
On February 24, the day Russian troops crossed the borders to Ukraine, I wrote about the potential end state of the operation:
Looking at this map I believe that the most advantageous end state for Russia would be the creation of a new independent country, call it Novorussiya, on the land east of the Dnieper and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population and that, in 1922, had been attached to the Ukraine by Lenin. That state would be politically, culturally and militarily aligned with Russia.
biggerThis would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection.
The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.
On March 19 I revisited the question and added Kryvyi Rih (Kriwoi Rog in Russian), the yellow part of the map, to the list:
Cont. reading: How Ukraine Lost Its Riches
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-125
Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
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Yesterday Russia destroyed a Ukrainian airforce command center:
High-precision long-range air-based missiles have destroyed an active buried command post of AFU Air Force near Voronivtsa, Vinnitsy Region.
Today several explosions took place at the Saki military airport on Crimea. Ukraine claims it attacked the site. There were however no incoming missiles seen or heard.
Russia considers Crimea as its territory. It had threatened to attack 'decision centers' should such attacks on its territory occur.
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The current open thread for other issues is here.
Trump Raid Is Sabotaging The Democrats' Campaign
Over the weekend the Democrats finally passed their rather mediocre $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act, which will not reduce inflation and is mostly about climate related measures and drugs. They hope to profit from it in the November midterm election:
Vulnerable incumbent Democratic senators like Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are already planning events promoting the landmark legislation they passed over the weekend. Democratic ad makers are busily preparing a barrage of commercials about it across key battlegrounds. And the White House is set to deploy Cabinet members on a nationwide sales pitch.The sweeping legislation, covering climate change and prescription drug prices, which came together in the Senate after more than a year of painfully public fits and starts, has kicked off a frenetic 91-day sprint to sell the package by November — and win over an electorate that has grown skeptical of Democratic rule.
But on the very same day the the Justice Department and the FBI handed republicans a huge new rallying point that will significantly increase their election turnout:
Cont. reading: Trump Raid Is Sabotaging The Democrats' Campaign
Policy By Other Means - By Helmholtz Smith
by Helmholtz Smith
"Hybrid war". Western propagandists love the expression "The bad guys are doing nasty underhand things to counter our clean-cut decent and wholly justified activities" but they are just making noise. As Clausewitz knew, however, there is an actual meaning:
We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce, a carrying out of the same by other means. All beyond this which is strictly peculiar to War relates merely to the peculiar nature of the means which it uses (...) for the political view is the object, War is the means, and the means must always include the object in our conception.
In this sense, all intelligently-conducted wars are "hybrid wars" advancing on many levels to achieve the "political object" by "other means".
What is the "object"?
Cont. reading: Policy By Other Means - By Helmholtz Smith
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-124
Only for news & views related to the Ukraine conflict.
Off topic comments will be deleted and repeated offenders WILL get banned.
The current open thread for other issues is here.