Christmas Cease Fire

Russian patriarch calls for Orthodox Christmas truce in Ukraine - Reuters, Jan 5 2023 - 10:05 UTC

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, called on Thursday for both sides of the war in Ukraine to observe a Christmas truce, a step dismissed by Kyiv as a cynical trap.

Many Orthodox Christians, including those living in Russia and Ukraine, celebrate Christmas on Jan. 6-7.

"I, Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, appeal to all the parties involved in the internecine conflict to cease fire and establish a Christmas truce from 12:00 on Jan. 6 until 24:00 on Jan. 7 so that Orthodox people can attend services on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day," he said.

A senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Mykhailo Podolyak, cast the Russian Orthodox Church as a "war propagandist" that had incited the "mass murder" of Ukrainians and the militarisation of Russia.

"The statement of the Russian Orthodox Church about the 'Christmas Truce' is a cynical trap and an element of propaganda," he said.

Putin orders 36-hour weekend cease-fire in Ukraine - AP, Jan 5 2023 - 12:32 UTC

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered Moscow’s armed forces to hold a 36-hour cease-fire in Ukraine this weekend for the Russian Orthodox Christmas holiday, the Kremlin said.

The order follows a proposal by the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, earlier in the day, which was dismissed by an official in the Ukrainian presidential office as propaganda.

“Based on the fact that a large number of citizens professing Orthodoxy live in the combat areas, we call on the Ukrainian side to declare a cease-fire and give them the opportunity to attend services on Christmas Eve, as well as on the Day of the Nativity of Christ,” according to Putin’s order, addressed to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and published on the Kremlin’s website.

The Russian troops will stop their attacks and offensive artillery strike during the announced time span.

The Ukrainian military is likely to disregard the cease fire. It will try to use it for local attacks which will run into well prepared defenses.

For most of the front lines this cease fire it will thereby be essentially a non-story. The value of it is in lifting the mood of the people in Russia and in the Russian affiliated areas of Ukraine.

Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-04

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) ...

Please stop the Covid / vaccine debates. Otherwise I'll have to again start to ban people who do not respect this request.

Ukraine - The Big Push To End The War

Over Christmas I had a short talk with a relative about the war in Ukraine. He asked me who would win and was astonished when I said: "Ukraine has zero chance to win." That person reads some German mainstream news sites and watches the public TV networks. With those sources of 'information' he was made to believe that Ukraine was winning the war.

One may excuse that with him never having been in a military and not being politically engaged. But still there are some basic numbers that let one conclude from the beginning that Russia, the much bigger, richer and more industrialized country, had clearly all advantages. My relative  obviously never had had that thought.

The 'western' propaganda is still quite strong. However, as I pointed out in March last year propaganda does not change a war and lies do not win it. Its believability is shrinking.

Former Lt.Col. Alex Vershinin, who in June pointed out that industrial warfare is back and the 'West' was not ready to wage it, has a new recommendable piece out which analyses the tactics on both sides, looks ahead and concludes that Russia will almost certainly win the war:

Wars of attrition are won through careful husbandry of one’s own resources while destroying the enemy’s. Russia entered the war with vast materiel superiority and a greater industrial base to sustain and replace losses. They have carefully preserved their resources, withdrawing every time the tactical situation turned against them. Ukraine started the war with a smaller resource pool and relied on the Western coalition to sustain its war effort. This dependency pressured Ukraine into a series of tactically successful offensives, which consumed strategic resources that Ukraine will struggle to replace in full, in my view. The real question isn’t whether Ukraine can regain all its territory, but whether it can inflict sufficient losses on Russian mobilized reservists to undermine Russia’s domestic unity, forcing it to the negotiation table on Ukrainian terms, or will Russian’ attrition strategy work to annex an even larger portion of Ukraine.

Russian domestic unity has only grown over the war. As Gilbert Doctorow points out wars make nations. The war does not only unite certain nationalistic parts of Ukraine who still dream of retaking Crimea. It also unites all of Russia. Unlike Ukraine Russia will be strengthened by it.

Casualties are expected in wars and the Russians, with their steady remembrance of the second world war as their Great Patriotic War, know this well. Screw ups also happen and at times some bad leadership decisions puts people into the wrong place where the enemy can and will kill them. That is what happened in Makeyevka (Donetsk) on New Years day 2 minutes after midnight. Some 100 Russian reservists died. The Russian leadership pointed out that they were killed by U.S. HIMARS missiles. The former Indian diplomat M. K. Bhadrakumar judges that this was a U.S. escalation which will likely receive a response:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - The Big Push To End The War

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-03

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Are There Any U.S. Red Lines?

The Biden administration has so far refrained from sending longer range missile to Ukraine. It fears a severe Russian reaction should it change that policy. Some warmongers dislike such sensible restrain.

In today's New York Times some former British diplomat, now working for a pro-war think tank, is arguing for the delivery of longer range weapons to Ukraine.

Putin Has No Red Lines

“What are Putin’s red lines?”

This question, asked with growing urgency as Russia loses its war in Ukraine but does not relent in its aggressions, is intended to offer analytical clarity and to guide policy. In reality, it is the wrong question, because “red line” is a bad metaphor. Red lines are red herrings. There are better ways to think about strategy.

Red lines, where a consequence is threatened when an opponent does a specified escalating move, do not really exists, says the author. Red lines are movable, responding to a red line violation is a cost to the one who drew the line and red lines invite deceptions - says the author.

After spending several hundred words arguing that red lines are a useless concept the author argues that the 'west' should draw a big one:

Cont. reading: Are There Any U.S. Red Lines?

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-02

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-01

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• Dec 19 - Ukraine - Is There Really A Change Of The Narrative?
• Dec 23 - What In Zelenski's "Epic Piece Of Theater" Was "Daring" And "Bold"?
• Dec 28 - Ukraine SitRep - Counter Artillery War - Financial Disaster
• Dec 29 - Typical News Updates From Ukraine
  Related:
  - Ukraine war tolls death knell for NATO - Indian Punchline
  - On the Influence of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine - Consortium News
  - Zaluzhnyi supports increasing responsibility for servicemen guilty of desertion and disobedience - Pravda.ua

• Dec 20 - Death Of Nuclear Deal With Iran Adds To Biden's Failures In U.S. Foreign Policy
  Related:
  - Why the War Party Needed To Demonize Iran - Antiwar
  - Russia, Iran open a trade route heralding a bloc - Indian Punchline
  - U.S. Scrambles to Stop Iran From Providing Drones for Russia - New York Times

• Dec 21 - Russia Takes New Steps To Secures Its Western Border
  Related:
  - New Year Address to the Nation - Putin / Kremlin

> For years, Western elites hypocritically assured us of their peaceful intentions, including to help resolve the serious conflict in Donbass. But in fact, they encouraged the neo-Nazis in every possible way, who continued to take military and overtly terrorist action against peaceful civilians in the people's republics of Donbass.

The West lied to us about peace while preparing for aggression, and today, they no longer hesitate to openly admit it and to cynically use Ukraine and its people as a means to weaken and divide Russia. We have never allowed anyone to do this and we will not allow it now. <

• Dec 30 - Lack Of Good Analyses Contributes To The Decline Of The 'West'
  Related:
  - Russia’s Economy Performed Much Better Than The West Expected Despite Sanctions - South Front

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-01

Slide Safely - Don't Fall - Into The New Year

May all of you have a happy new year!

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-237

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Lack Of Good Analyses Contributes To The Decline Of The 'West'

What really hit me last year was the dearth of correct analyses in main stream media and in politics with regards to the war in Ukraine. Little if anything is based on facts. More than 90% of the published output is propaganda.

The 'western' plan was to draw Russia into Ukraine to then 'kill' it by economic sanctions. As Biden said when he announced those:

We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize the long-term impact on Russia and to minimize the impact on the United States and our Allies. 

And I want to be clear: The United States is not doing this alone. For months, we’ve been building a coalition of partners representing well more than half of the global economy.

Twenty-seven members of the European Union, including France, Germany, Italy — as well as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and many others — to amplify the joint impact of our response.

I just spoke with the G7 leaders this morning, and we are in full and total agreement. We will limit Russia’s ability to do business in Dollars, Euros, Pounds, and Yen to be part of the global economy. We will limit their ability to do that. We are going to stunt the ability to finance and grow Rus- — the Russian military.

We’re going to impose major — and we’re going to impair their ability to compete in a high-tech 21st century economy.

We’ve already seen the impact of our actions on Russia’s currency, the Ruble, which early today hit its weakest level ever — ever in history. And the Russian stock market plunged today. The Russian government’s borrowing rate spiked by over 15 percent.

The assumptions behind these sanctions about the state of the Russian economy were completely wrong. Russia no longer had a low level economy. Yes, its GDP in dollar terms was much lower than those of most European states. But its GDP per capita measured at purchase power of the ruble was quite high. Russia's GDP also includes a much higher percentage of real production and a lower percentage of dubious 'services'. Its health care sector is 5.6% of its GDP. In the U.S. it is 16.7%, without creating a much better outcome. If one looks at Russia's production of steel, concrete and electricity per capita, things of real value, one can see that it is as much developed as other major middle income countries in Europe.

Cont. reading: Lack Of Good Analyses Contributes To The Decline Of The 'West'