Ukraine Open Thread 2022-56

Open Thread 2022-55 (Not Ukraine)

News and views NOT related to Ukraine ...

Politico: "Germany approves tank sales to Ukraine, bowing to pressure"

Did Germany really decide to deliver tanks to the Ukraine?

The German government said Tuesday it will deliver anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine after facing strong pressure at home and abroad to abandon its reluctance to supply heavy weapons to Kyiv.

The decision to provide the “Gepard” tanks, which come from German defense industry stocks, was made at a closed-door government meeting on Monday, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told reporters at a Ukraine security conference at a U.S. airbase in Ramstein, Germany. There was no immediate information on how many tanks Germany would deliver.

The announcement marks a notable shift for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who as recently as last week was still ruling out sending German tanks to Ukraine, insisting it would make more sense for Eastern NATO countries to give Kyiv old Soviet-era tanks already familiar to the Ukrainian military. Scholz promised Germany would then send those countries replacement German tanks.

I find it amusing how many misunderstand this move. First off - the Gepard (Cheetah) is not a tank as the turret has very little protective armor.

bigger

It is a short range (5 km / 3 miles) anti-air system on a tank chassis useful against helicopters, drones and low flying planes.

Cont. reading: Politico: "Germany approves tank sales to Ukraine, bowing to pressure"

A Recap Of The War In Ukraine - by Gonzalo Lira

Gonzalo Lira just delivered a decent recap of the war in Ukraine.

Gonzalo Lira @GonzaloLira1968 - 10:28 UTC · Apr 26, 2022

Quick recap for those who haven't followed what's been going on in Ukraine but want to understand: 02/24: The Russians invaded from the south, south-east, east and north, in a lightning campaign. The Russians invaded with 190K troops—against 250K combat troops from Ukraine.

The RF put 30K troops near Kiev—nowhere near enough to capture the city—but enough to pin down some 100K AFU defenders. The RF also launched several axes of attack, with reinforcements on standby (including a famed 40km long tank column), to see where they might be needed.

Crucially—the Russian's blitz on several axes pre-empted an imminent UKRAINIAN blitzkrieg. The AFU had been about to invade the Donbas. This was the immediate motivation for Russia's invasion: To beat them to the punch and scuttle Ukraine's imminent invasion—which they did.

Cont. reading: A Recap Of The War In Ukraine - by Gonzalo Lira

Ukraine - Railway Hits, U.S. War Aims, Ops Report

Updated below at 17:45 UTC

Last Thursday the first destruction of bridges along Ukrainian railway routes in eastern Ukraine took place. These were important for Ukraine's war effort and especially for the resupplies flowing from west towards the eastern front:

The Ukrainian military, like Russia's, depends on railways for all long distance mass supplies as both have relatively few logistic trucks.

The U.S. and others have said they would give the Ukraine dozens of 155mm towed artillery guns plus tens of thousands of shells with them. The U.S. guns come with one truck each to tow the gun.

That is all manageable so far but now let's look at the logistics (especially without railways). ...

I have estimated that the Ukraine does not have enough trucks to replace railway logistics and those logistics are now falling apart:

The Eurasianist @Russ_Warrior - 10:09 UTC · Apr 25, 2022

The Russian Armed Forces hit 7 substations in western #Ukraine:
_ Zdolbunov (trains stopped in Dubno area, delay of the trains to Kovel), _ Kazatin-2, _ Krasnoye, _ Podolskaya, _ Sknilov, _ Slavuta (decommissioning of the entire area of Zdolbunov and Slavuta stations), _ Fastov

bigger

The attacks have been confirmed:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - Railway Hits, U.S. War Aims, Ops Report

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-54

The MoA Week In Review - NOT Ukraine OT 2022-53

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Apr 18 - The Ukraine Is Still Losing So What Is Its Plan?
• Apr 19 - Russia Has Launched Phase Two Of Its Operation In Ukraine
• Apr 20 - Some Of The Weapons Delivered To Ukraine Will Be Used Against Us
• Apr 22 - Ukraine - Gonzalo Lira, War Aims, Railway Supplies And Incoming Fire
• Apr 24 - How Not To Report On Ukraine
  Related:
  - Poland Preparing For War? - Southfront
  - US narrative won’t survive defeat in Donbass - Indian Punchline
  - Synthetic Left Joins Corporate Right in Getting Ukraine War Wrong - Covert Action Magazine

• Apr 23 - EU Commission, U.S. Submit To Reality
  Related:
  - The Problem With America’s LNG Boom - Oilprice</em
  - The Former Chancellor Who Became Putin’s Man in Germany - NYT>
  - A DER SPIEGEL Interview with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz "There Cannot Be a Nuclear War" - Der Spiegel

• Apr 23 - The 'Rules Based Order' Knows No Distance
  Related:
  - Defying imperialist pressure, China and Solomon Islands sign security pact - WSWS
  - Deepened ties with China prove Solomon Islands on right side of history: Solomons PM - Global Times
  - US’ blatant threat to Solomon Islands exposes its hegemony and bullying: Chinese Embassy - Global Times

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - NOT Ukraine OT 2022-53

How Not To Report On Ukraine

Sitting in New York and London three New York Times writer penned a current above the fold piece on events in Ukraine. It is headlined:

As Western Arms Pour Into Ukraine, Zelensky Promises Victory

A version of the piece also appeared in print on April 24, 2022, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline:

As Heavy Arms Arrive, Ukraine Gets a Boost In Defending the East.

The 'report' seems to be an attempt to summarize the current situation in Ukraine. But the choice of voices quoted in it does not give me any confidence that it is painting a realistic picture:

President Volodymyr Zelensky ... expressed ...
Mr. Zelensky said ...
Mr. Zelensky said ...
The Pentagon and the State Department declined to comment
Mr. Zelensky said ...
Military analysts said ...
Britain’s Ministry of Defense said ...
The ministry said ...
Canada on Friday announced ...
... after President Biden announced ...
Mr. Zelensky reiterated ...
... the Ukrainian defense intelligence agency warned ...
It also said ...
The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, said ...
... The Associated Press reported.
... an aide to the city’s mayor said.
Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, said ...
... Ukrainian officials said.
... said Andriy Yermak, the head of the presidential administration.
Mr. Zelensky reacted angrily ... denouncing ... and asking ...
Photographs and video from the scene appeared to show ...
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said on Twitter ...
... the region’s governor said.
... the Ukrainian military claimed
Mr. Zelensky seized on a Russian general’s statement ...
... Mr. Zelensky said.
Military and political analysts have cast doubt ...
But the commander’s hint ...
... the Moldovan government summoned ...
Poland, ... , said ...
Lesia Vasylenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, shared a photograph on Twitter ... that she said ...
... she wrote ...

To me it seems that there is something amiss with this piece.

The 'Rules Based Order' Knows No Distance

Remarks by President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine, Feb 15 2022

Nations have a right to sovereignty and territorial integrity. They have the freedom to set their own course and choose with whom they will associate.

The distance between the U.S. (New York) and the Ukraine (Lviv) is 7,194 kilometer (4,470 miles). The distance between Russia and Ukraine is zero kilometer (zero miles). They are neighboring countries.

Readout of Senior Administration Travel to Hawaii, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands, Apr 22, 2022

The two sides engaged in substantial discussion around the recently signed security agreement between Solomon Islands and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Solomon Islands representatives indicated that the agreement had solely domestic applications, but the U.S. delegation noted there are potential regional security implications of the accord, including for the United States and its allies and partners. The U.S. delegation outlined clear areas of concern with respect to the purpose, scope, and transparency of the agreement.

If steps are taken to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power-projection capabilities, or a military installation, the delegation noted that the United States would then have significant concerns and respond accordingly.

The distance between the continental U.S. (Los Angeles) and the Solomon Islands is 9,845 kilometer (6,118 miles). The distance between the continental China (Shanghai) and the Solomon Islands is 5,901 kilometer (3,667 miles).

bigger

EU Commission, U.S. Submit To Reality

Me stating the very obvious on Feb 28:

All energy consumption in the U.S. and EU will now come at a premium price. This will push the EU and the U.S. into a recession. As Russia will increase the prices for exports of goods in which it has market power - gas, oil, wheat, potassium, titanium, aluminum, palladium, neon etc - the rise in inflation all around the world will become significant.
...
On February 4 Russia and China declared a multipolar world in which they are two partnering poles that will counter the American one. Russia's move into the Ukraine is a demonstration of that.

It also shows that the U.S. is unwilling to give up its supremacist urges without a large fight. But while the U.S. over the last 20 years has spent its money to mess up the Middle East, Russia and China have used the time to prepare for the larger conflict. They have spent more brain time on the issue than the U.S. has.

The Europeans should have acknowledged that instead of helping the U.S. to keep up its self-image of a unipolar power.

It will take some time for the new economic realities to settle in. They will likely change the current view of Europe's real strategic interests.

I admit that it has been amusing me to watch the process predicted above through the ever evolving headlines:

Europe Rejects Putin’s Demand for Natural Gas Payments in Rubles - Mar 24, 2022, Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders rejected Vladimir Putin’s demand to pay for natural gas in rubles ...

EU payment in roubles for Russian gas would violate sanctions regime - document - Apr 14, 2022, Reuters

BRUSSELS, April 14 (Reuters) - Payment for Russian gas in roubles by European Union buyers would break the EU's sanctions regime against Moscow, an internal European Commission note said.

EU Sees Way to Pay for Russian Gas Without Breaching Sanctions - Apr 22, 2022, Reuters

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - EU companies may be able to work around Russia's demand to receive gas payments in roubles without breaching sanctions if they pay in euros or dollars which are then converted into the Russian currency, the European Commission said on Friday.

Even the U.S. had to submit to reality:

Yellen warns European ban on Russian energy could harm economies - Apr 21, 2022, rfi / AFP

Cont. reading: EU Commission, U.S. Submit To Reality