Tic-Toc 9 On The War On Iran

A ceasefire.

To be broken in 3, 2, 1 ...

Proliferation, Retaliation, And Other Consequences Of The War On Iran

There are several aspects of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities that deserve further discussions:

• Non-proliferation issues
• Retaliation by Iran
• Consequences of unlawful behavior

Before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities Iran was a long standing member of the Treaty for the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The IAEA, tasked with verifying the adherence to the NPT, was able to inspect Iranian facilities. It knew, down to the milligram, how much enriched Uranian Iran had produced and where it was stored.

Western intelligence services as well as the IAEA did not only confirm that Iran had no nuclear weapons. They confirmed that Iran did not even have a nuclear weapon program. There were no plans to produce any weapons.

All that is now in doubt.

The NPT's objective was to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology and to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The second part was the reason why non-nuclear nations have joined the treaty.

The U.S. demand that Iran should stop all enrichment of Uranium, as needed for civilian nuclear reactors, and the attack on Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities make it obvious that Iran is getting deprived of all the positive elements the NPT had promised. There are also serious concerns that the IAEA has leaked the names of Iranian nuclear scientists to Israel which in the end led to their assassinations.

From Iran's side a continuation of its membership in the NPT and any cooperation with the IAEA have lost their purpose. There is no longer any reason to stay within the agreement. Iran is likely to leave the NPT.

That does mean, and does not make it more likely, that Iran will start to produce nuclear weapons. There are principal, religiously bound reasons why it has so far refrained from doing so. Those have not changed.

Iran has said that it had moved all enriched Uranium from its Fordow enrichment site shortly before the U.S. strike on the installation:

Cont. reading: Proliferation, Retaliation, And Other Consequences Of The War On Iran

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The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-137

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Jun 15 - Tic-Toc Thread On The War On Iran, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
  Related:
  - War With Iran - Craig Murray
  - US Attacks Iran: Start of a Long War? - Yves Smith / Naked Capitalism
  - Michael Hudson: Why America Is at War with Iran - Naked Capitalism
  - Will Trump’s Political/Military Theater Widen the War? — UPDATE - Sonar21
  
  - Trump official to The Grayzone: CIA’s Ratcliffe acts as ‘Mossad stenographer’ on Iran - Grayzone
  - The Key Nuclear Allegation that started the Iran-Israeli War was Coaxed from a Palantir Counter-Intelligence Algorithm - Alastair Crooke
  - Inside the spy dossier that led Israel to war (archived) - Economist
    We review its secret intelligence on Iranian nukes
  
  - Trump and the Iran War: perhaps the most openly telegraphed event of all time - Michael Tracy
  - This Is the Real Reason the United States Is Entering the War -Jfeed
    Beyond Iran and Terror: A Strategic Opportunity to Decisively Break the Russia-China Axis in the Middle East
  
  - Israel’s Futile Air War - Precision Strikes Will Not Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program—or Its Government (archived) - Foreign Affairs
  
  - Consequences of the US entering war with Iran & Zionist regime’s intentions behind starting this war - Khamenei.ir

• Jun 16 - Russia Weaponizes UK Climate Project
  Related:
  - Putin’s stealing our sunshine… the dark side of British propaganda - SCF
  - Europe's risky war on Russia's 'shadow fleet' - Responsible Statecraft
  - The definition of insanity: a neocon think tank's recommendations for Russia - Peacemonger
    Or, let's keep doing what we have been doing for a decade, and hope for a different result

• Jun 17 - English Outsider - The 'West' Is A Farce
  Related
  - Israel-Iran conflict ‘drives the final nail into the coffin’ of postwar world order - France24
  - The Collapse of Restraint: Iran, Israel, and the Fragility of Global Order - Modern Diplomacy
  - Ukraine and Iran: two fronts of a piecemeal world war - Thomas Fazi

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-137

Tic-Toc No. 8 On The War On Iran

This report seems genuine:

Exclusive: Iran given advance notice as US insisted attack on nuclear sites is ‘one-off’ - Amwaj

US President Donald Trump says three key nuclear facilities in Iran have been “obliterated,” while threatening more strikes “if peace does not come quickly.” This comes as Amwaj.media has learned that Washington notified Tehran of the strikes. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a high-ranking Iranian political source confirmed that the Trump administration on June 21 conveyed that it did not seek an all-out confrontation, and only intended to strike the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites. Importantly, the senior source also confirmed that the targeted sites were evacuated, with "most" of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium kept in secure locations.

The Pentagon claims that 30 cruise missiles were fired from submarines against Iranian nuclear sites near Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow. The main strike was allegedly by three B-2 heavy bomber which dropped six bunker buster bombs on the buried enrichment facility in Fordow. There are doubts that this indeed has happened:

My theory for the evening? I think this was a low-risk, low-impact attack entirely conducted using submarine-launched cruise missiles, and the DoD is simply lying about heavy bomber involvement for propaganda purposes.

We will have to wait for before/after satellite pictures and/or video from the ground before assessing the attack.

What we do know for sure is that the U.S. has launched an unprovoked, illegitimate attack against another country. The attack was also in breach of the Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty. Iran could, and now maybe should, resign from that treaty and reject inspections by IAEA personnel.

Tic-Toc No. 7 On The War On Iran

Nothing happens. The war continues.

Tic-Toc Thread 6 On The War On Iran

I commented yesterday that Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) by pointing to a CNN piece:

Trump will allow 2 more weeks for diplomacy before deciding on US strike in Iran, White House says

“Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said the president in his statement, which was read aloud by press secretary Karoline Leavitt from the White House briefing room.

However, "within the next two weeks" is open to many possibilities. Still I perceived that Trump had decided to not bomb Iran.

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism sees a different form of TACO:

Trump has approved a US strike package for Iran but is allegedly holding off to see how Tehran responds to his latest ultimatum, which is to give up not just nuclear enrichment but also ballistic missiles, that is, render itself defenseless. Trump has put pedal to the metal and has also thrown the steering wheel out the window. He’s created too much in the way of expectation of action to reverse course. TACO is prevailing: Trump is unwilling and/or unable to stand up to the Israel lobby and neocons.

We will see. My hunch is still that Trump will refrain from attacking Iran because the potential damage it may cause to the global position of the U.S., as well as to his domestic political plans, is too high to make it a viable solution.

Cont. reading: Tic-Toc Thread 6 On The War On Iran

Tic-Toc Thread On The War On Iran - 5

This is dangerous. The majority of Muslim in the Middle East are Shia. Killing the Ayatollah would make the war personal to them.

Defense Minister: Taking out Khamenei, ‘the modern Hitler,’ is a goal of the operation - YnetNews, Jun 19 2025

Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a statement to the media at the site of the direct missile hit in Holon, and for the first time threatened to eliminate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. "Preventing the existence of Khamenei, the modern Hitler - one of the goals of the operation," he said. "A dictator like Khamenei, who leads Iran and has inscribed the destruction of Israel on his flag - he cannot continue to exist."

Fake outrage:

Hala Jaber @HalaJaber - 9:53 UTC · Jun 19, 2025

🔴 IMPORTANT: Israel is yelling “hospital!” to distract from the real headline - the actual targets. Iran didn’t strike Soroka Hospital directly, it hit IDF’s C4I & cyber ops HQ in Gav-Yam tech park, Be’er Sheva:

📍 Digital command & C4ISR systems
👥 Thousands of troops stationed
📏 Just 1–2 km from the hospital, not “far,” not “accidental,” not “random.”

The military intelligence nerve center was the real target.
Soroka’s damage? Collateral from a strike on an active war machine.

PS: If you set up a military base next to a hospital, don’t act shocked when the windows rattle.

Behind the scenes negotiations continue:

Exclusive: Iran delivers response to new US proposal

The Iranian response was sent to the White House just before noon EDT on June 18. The high-ranking source with insight into proceedings described the document to Amwaj.media as "a polite no, but with a good explanation.”

A second senior source described the communication as "long" and in essence stating that Iran, in principle, does not object to negotiations to "discuss possible ways forward." However, the source stated, it is not politically feasible to do so "while our people are under bombardment."

The source declined to get into specifics on the substance of the response, but Iran has in the past indicated that it would be open to the idea of a multilateral consortium—as long as such a facility is built on Iranian soil.

The exchanges over June 17-18, which are believed to be direct, come as President Trump has publicly demanded Iran's “unconditional surrender” while hinting that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may be Israel’s next target.

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