Open Thread 2022-06
News & views ...
Slanted Reporting Can Lead To Bad Foreign Policies
When reading this New York Times piece about economic growth in China one might come away with the impression that the country is trending towards a recession.
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China’s Economy Is Slowing, a Worrying Sign for the World
Economic output climbed 4 percent in the last quarter of 2021, slowing from the previous quarter. Growth has faltered as home buyers and consumers become cautious.
BEIJING — Construction and property sales have slumped. Small businesses have shut because of rising costs and weak sales. Debt-laden local governments are cutting the pay of civil servants.China’s economy slowed markedly in the final months of last year as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well. Lockdowns and travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus also dented consumer spending. Stringent regulations on everything from internet businesses to after-school tutoring companies have set off a wave of layoffs.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Monday that economic output from October through December was only 4 percent higher than during the same period a year earlier. That was a deceleration from the 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter, July through September.
The world’s demand for consumer electronics, furniture and other home comforts during the pandemic has produced record-setting exports for China, preventing its growth from stalling.
Note all the negative attributes sprinkled into nearly every sentence. China's economy must be in really bad shape.
Up to that point the piece has not mentioned its core data point - which is sensationally good and should have been in the headline.
That follows only now, after the reader has been sufficiently prepared to think it is actually bad. The sensationally good data point gets immediately dampened with another negative sentence.
Over all of last year, China’s economic output was 8.1 percent higher than in 2020, the government said. But much of the growth was in the first half of last year.
8.1% growth, after 2.3% growth in Covid 2020 seems excellent to me. It is beyond the 6% target the government had set and higher than previous estimates. For China it is the fastest growth rate in a decade.
Cont. reading: Slanted Reporting Can Lead To Bad Foreign Policies
Yemen's Houthi Tell Abu Dhabi To Pull Back Its Forces
Since 2015 Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are fighting against the Houthi movement in Yemen.
The two countries are different aims. Saudi Arabia wants to destroy the Houthi movement and install a Yemeni government that it can control. The UAE wants to control the ports of Yemen and the seaways around it. For this purpose it has build its own proxy force of southern Yemeni tribes.
The Houthi have hit back at Saudi Arabia by attacking its airports, cities, and oil installations with missiles and drones. They have pushed out Saudi controlled troops from various Yemeni provinces. Recently they were on the verge of taking the the Saudi controlled city of Marib and the rich oil fields around it.
In contrast the Houthi had so far not attacked the UAE. Two years ago the UAE had pulled its troops from Yemen and mostly stopped fighting the Houthis. Their proxies kept control of the harbor cities and the islands the UAE desired to control.
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Early this year the Houthi had again warned that they intend to liberate all of Yemen, including the UAE controlled areas. They also captured a UAE owned 'hospital ship' which carried military trucks and weapons.
Meanwhile the Saudis had great difficulties to stop the Houthi attacks on Marib. Despite the loss of some support from the U.S. they resorted to an extensive bombing campaign:
Yemen Data Project @YemenData - 10:06 UTC · Jan 17, 2022Saudi Coalition Bombings Surge in Yemen Following End of U.N. War Crimes Investigations - link
2021 ended with 224% month-on-month increase in civilian casualties in bombings. Airstrikes killed 32 civilians and injured 62 in December, more than in the 11 previous months of 2021 combined. Following GEE dissolution, air raids increased 43%, civilian casualties at 2.5yr high.
Almost half of all air raids in 2021 hit Marib. 884 air raids, up to 5,322 individual airstrikes targeted Marib up 21% from 2020. Hudaydah was the worst place for civilians in the air war in 2021 - the highest rate of air raids & civilian casualties since 2018 Stockholm Agreement.
Despite the intense bombing campaign the Houthi were still advancing.
That changed last week when suddenly the UAE came back:
Yemeni forces backed by the United Arab Emirates have joined coalition troops fighting the Houthi movement around the central city of Marib in a renewed push to secure the prize of an energy-producing region.
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The Saudi-led coalition this week announced a new operation aimed at turning the tide after newly deployed UAE-backed Giants Brigade forces, supported by air strikes, expelled Houthi forces from oil-producing Shabwa reopening access to Marib.The Brigades - mostly based along the western coast which has been relatively quiet over the past three years - entered Marib on Monday and have since seized large parts of Huraib district, local military sources said.
"The Giants Brigades are better armed and trained (than other Yemeni coalition forces) and fresh to the fight ... The Houthis will put up fierce resistance, but in general their ranks are exhausted," said Maysaa Shuja Al-Deen, a fellow at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies.
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The conflict is a multifaceted one with several Yemeni factions vying for power. The UAE largely ended its military presence on the ground in 2019 amid a military stalemate but continues to hold sway via Yemeni forces it armed and trained.
The Houthi could not leave that without a response. Today they gave a very public warning to the UAE by attacking it on its own ground:
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates using drones on Monday, setting off explosions in three fuel trucks and causing a fire near the airport of Abu Dhabi, capital of the region's commercial and tourism hub.
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The UAE, a member of the coalition, has armed and trained local Yemeni forces that recently joined fighting against the Houthis in Yemen's energy-producing Shabwa and Marib regions.
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Three people were killed and six wounded when three fuel tanker trucks exploded in the industrial Musaffah area near storage facilities of oil firm ADNOC, state news agency WAM said. It said those killed were two Indians and a Pakistani.
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The Houthi's military spokesman said the group launched a military operation "deep in the UAE". Its chief negotiator, Mohammed Abdulsalam, whom Houthi-run media said was currently visiting Tehran, warned the UAE against "tampering in Yemen".
Life and business in the glitzy high-rises of Abu Dhabi will be become much less comfortable should the city come under sustained drone attacks.
The UAE's foreign ministry condemned the attack and said that "it will not pass without punishment."
But what can the UAE do that has not yet been done by the Saudi siege on Yemen and the permanent bombing attacks?
The UAE will have to pull back its proxy forces in Yemen or it will be hit at the core of its wealth.
Dubai, the UAE's central airport, is the world's busiest one by international passenger traffic. A few missile or drone hits on planes parked there would have immediate consequences on global passenger traffic as well as on the tourism profits the UAE gains from it.
Today's drones were a warning. If the UAE tries to ignore it it will be in for some serious hurt.
Please Support Moon of Alabama
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your support is essential to keep Moon of Alabama going.
It is always delectable to see feedbacks like these to Saturday's Mysteries of Kazakhstan post.
Hedwig Kuijpers @Hedwigkuijpers2 - 8:29 UTC · Jan 9, 2022
I once again declare my love for B., who summarized all you need to know about the #Almaty rebellion, and its actors such as wild Arman, MI6's sweetie-pie Ablyazov, and of course the CSTO intervention. link to MoA
Roderic Day @RodericDay - 16:41 UTC · Jan 9, 2022
Retweeting @MoonofA
I don't know exactly what @MoonofA's political orientation is, but their articles are always full of verifiable sources for claims, and you can form your own opinion based on what they report.
They also self-criticize well.
We all need to write more in this style. link to MoA
Ana @Ana_Q_ - 18:41 UTC · Jan 9, 2022
Replying to @RodericDay and @MoonofA
He is very good, indeed! And he accepts diverse views!
Paul Sanoian @PSanoian - 3:15 UTC · Jan 10, 2022
Replying to @RodericDay and @MoonofAAlso strange is that most of the comments are worth reading. I disagree with and object to some of them but almost none of them are outright crazy.
prog_with_nusantara_characteristic @Tana_Bakumpay - 5:07 UTC · Jan 10, 2022
Replying to @PSanoian @RodericDay and @MoonofAYeah, I love reading at the discourse in some articles and I don't necessarily have to agree with everything. Wish we have this kind of healthy environment on here as well.
I love such feedback. But I also need to eat and pay rent.
This site is one person's full time effort and there is currently no other income I can rely on. While I live in somewhat better circumstances than Spitzweg's Poor Poet, I am neither rich nor can I (or want to) indulge in luxuries.
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Thank you very much!
Bernhard aka b.
The MoA Week In Review - OT 2022-005
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
- Jan 10 - The Russia-U.S. Talks In Geneva Are Likely To Fail
- Jan 12 - With No Progress In Talks Russia Will Have To React
- Jan 13 - The Failure Of This Week's US-NATO-Russia Meetings Make War More Likely
Related:
- The U.S. Exit From the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty Has Fueled a New Arms Race - James M. Acton / Carnegie
- Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview on Channel One’s “The Great Game” political talk show, Moscow, January 13, 2022 - mid.ru
- Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks and answers to media questions at a news conference on Russia’s foreign policy performance in 2021, Moscow, January 14, 2022 - mid.ru
Best zinger quote:
> Speaking about the possibility of holding a separate dialogue with the EU independently from the United States and NATO, one should ask the United States and NATO whether they will allow the EU to take any independent action. <
- Jan 11 - The Danger Of Subjective Reading Of Covid News
Related:
- COVID-19 patients show more signs of brain damage than people with Alzheimer’s disease - Studyfinds
- Immunological dysfunction persists for 8 months following initial mild-to-moderate SARS-CoV-2 infection - Nature
- Omicron’s Message on Vaccines: Boosting Begets Breadth - Cell
- Jan 14 - What Might A Lame Duck Biden Aim For?
Related:
- More Mojo, Joe! - Maureen Dowd / NYT
- Antony Blinken and a Gun at Your Head - Ted Snyder / Antiwar
- Harris team looks to course changes to reset her political prospects - Washington Post
- Jan 15 - How Moon of Alabama Feeds Chinese Counter-Propaganda
Related:
- Diplomacy as an Instrument of Statecraft: A Practicum - Chas Freeman
- Unlocked: Order of Battle: US Spooks Clone Australia Anti-Influence Campaign in UK and Canada - Peter Lee
- In high-profile case against MIT’s Gang Chen, prosecutors seeking to drop charges - Washington Post
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2022-005
How Moon of Alabama Feeds Chinese Counter-Propaganda
During my daily round of skimming various global news site I stumble upon this Global Times report:
FM uses slideshow to expose anti-China forces’ lies on Xinjiang
Fabricating reports with numerous loopholes, hiring "actresses" to play as "victims," covering malicious purposes of disturbing China's Xinjiang region with excuses on human rights… Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin on Friday used more than 20 slides to refute disinformation and rumors made by anti-China "scholars," the US and Western media, and the terrorist organization "World Uyghur Congress."
I checked the website of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to see if the slideshow is publicly available. Unfortunately that does not seem to be the case. But there is an English language transcript of yesterday's press conference with foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.
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Prompted by a planted question from a CGTN journalist Wang Wenbin made a prepared presentation on baseless Xinjiang allegations the U.S. likes to make.
This part made me smile (emph. add.):
First of all, those who fabricate lies on Xinjiang always camouflage themselves with three cloaks.
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The second is the cloak of victims. They concoct lies by playing the victim or witness. Such fake witnesses abound. We once exposed how Zumrat Dawut and Tursunay Ziawudun lied. Today, I want to give you another example named Sayragul Sauytbay. She sometimes calls herself a teacher at a vocational training center, and sometimes a “victim” of the “detention center”. She claims to have witnessed “torture” and “violence” at vocational training centers on one occasion, but insisted that she has never seen any acts of violence on the other. She says the “detainees” were forced to have pork, but asserts that there was no meat at all in another context. In fact, this person has never learned or worked in vocational training centers, but is wanted by the public security authorities for suspected crimes of illegal border-crossing and loan fraud. The so-called “testimonies” of these individuals contradict themselves and cannot justify anything, only to reveal that the people are not victims or witnesses, but third-stringer actors that give themselves away while changing their playbooks.
To my best knowledge the first piece ever that took apart the diverging claims Sayragul Sauytbay made in various interviews was published by Moon of Alabama on December 5 2020.
"Uighurs forced to eat pork" - Horror Stories Told By Chinese Defector Seem To Evolve
The lies by Tursunay Ziawudun were subject of a follow on piece on this site posted on February 4 2021:
Cont. reading: How Moon of Alabama Feeds Chinese Counter-Propaganda
What Might A Lame Duck Biden Aim For?
These are a pretty bad days for U.S. President Joe Biden.
Wednesday: Quinnipiac poll shows Biden with 33 percent approval rating
The poll found 57 percent disapproved of Biden's handling of the economy, 54 percent disapproved of his handling of foreign policy and 55 percent disapproved of his handling of the pandemic, which was once a consistent bright spot for Biden.
Thursday: Kyrsten Sinema Backs Senate Filibuster in Blow to Joe Biden Amid Voting Rights Showdown
Senator Kyrsten Sinema has delivered a major blow to President Joe Biden as she reiterated her support for the chamber's 60-vote filibuster—the biggest obstacle for Democrats in passing voting rights legislation.
Thursday: Biden all but concedes defeat on voting, election bills
All but conceding defeat, President Joe Biden said Thursday he’s now unsure the Democrats' major elections and voting rights legislation can pass Congress this year. He spoke at the Capitol after a key fellow Democrat, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, dramatically announced her refusal to go along with changing Senate rules to muscle the bill past a Republican filibuster.
Thursday: Supreme Court blocks vaccine rule for companies, allows health care worker mandate
The Supreme Court on Thursday blocked the Biden administration's vaccine-or-test rule for businesses with at least 100 workers, but granted a separate request from the Biden administration to allow its vaccine mandate for health care workers to take effect.
Thursday: Producer price index increased by 0.2%, up more than 6% for 2021
Friday: U.S. Retail Sales Slide Most in 10 Months on Inflation, Omicron
The value of overall purchases decreased 1.9%, after a revised 0.2% gain a month earlier, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, suggesting price-adjusted receipts were even weaker than the headline number.
Friday: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops More Than Expected Due To Inflation Worries
Noting inflation's regressive impact, Curtin said consumer sentiment among households with total incomes below $100,000 slumped by 9.4 percent in early January, while sentiment among households with incomes over that amount increased by 5.7 percent.
Losses on all fronts. The midterms will likely be devastating for the Democrats. Afterwards Biden will be a lame duck.
The only field where he will still be able to show political initiative, and maybe have some successes, will be in foreign policy.
What could he aim for?
This week Moon of Alabama is asking you, dear reader, to support this site. Please do so as well as you can.
The Failure Of This Week's US-NATO-Russia Meetings Make War More Likely
In the late 1990s the U.S. military-industrial-media complex lobbied the Clinton administration to extend NATO. The sole purpose was to win more customers for U.S. weapons. Russia protested. It had offered to integrate itself into a new European security architecture but on equal terms with the U.S. The U.S. rejected that. It wanted Russia to subordinate itself to U.S. whims.
Since then NATO has been extended five times and moved closer and closer to Russia's border. Leaving Russia, a large country with many resources, outside of Europe's security structure guaranteed that Russia would try to come back from the miserable 1990s and regain its former power.
In 2014 the U.S. sponsored a coup against the democratically elected government of the Ukraine, Russia's neighbor and relative, and installed its proxies. To prevent an eventual integration of the Ukraine into NATO Russia arranged for an uprising against the coup in the eastern Ukraine. As long as the Ukraine has an internal conflict it can not join NATO.
In 2018 the Trump administration withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty which had been created under the Presidents Gorbachev and Reagan to eliminate nuclear missiles in Europe. Now the U.S. made plans to station new nuclear missiles in Europe which would threaten Russia. These required a Russian response.
Meanwhile the U.S. and other NATO states have deployed significant 'training' units to the Ukraine and continue to send weapons to it. This is a sneaking integration of the Ukraine into NATO structures without the formal guarantees.
In late 2021 the U.S. started to make noise about alleged Russian military concentrations at its western border. There were groundless allegations that Russia was threatening to invade the Ukraine which was begging to enter NATO. The purpose was to justify a further extension of NATO and more NATO deployments near Russia.
Russia has had enough of such nonsense. It moved to press the U.S. for a new security architecture in Europe that would not threaten Russia. The rumors about Russian action in the Ukraine helped to press President Joe Biden into agreeing to talks.
After Russia had detailed its security demands towards the U.S. and NATO a series of talks were held.
I had warned that these would likely not be successful as the U.S. had shown no signs to move on core Russian demands. As expected the talks with the U.S. on Monday failed. The U.S. made some remarks that it would like to negotiate some side issues but not on the core of Russia's request to end the extension of NATO and to stop new missile deployments.
Wednesday's talks with NATO had similar results as had today's talks with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
As Russia had previously announced it will not consider further talks as there is nothing to expect from them:
Cont. reading: The Failure Of This Week's US-NATO-Russia Meetings Make War More Likely
Open Thread 2022-04
News & views ...
With No Progress In Talks Russia Will Have To React
Monday's negotiations over Russian security demands between the U.S. and Russia were, as predicted, a failure.
Russia's core demand, to end the NATO drive to its borders by excluding membership for the Ukraine and Georgia, was rejected. A for once realistic NYT piece did not even try to hide the disaster:
In Talks on Ukraine, U.S. and Russia Deadlock Over NATO Expansion
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov, Russia’s lead negotiator, insisted after the meeting that it was “absolutely mandatory” that Ukraine “never, never, ever” become a NATO member.His American counterpart, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, reiterated that the United States could never make such a pledge because “we will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open door policy,” and she said that the United States and its allies would not stand by if Russia sought to change international borders “by force."
Today's talk between all NATO members and Russia in Brussels had similar results. Russia's core requests were rejected and a bunch of stuff with which NATO would like to restrict Russian advantages was thrown up to divert the attention from the core issues.
As NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg summarized it:
Cont. reading: With No Progress In Talks Russia Will Have To React