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May 18, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: Kharkiv Incursion Forensics - Attacks On Russia And Russian Revenge

On May 11 I had analyzed the Russian move towards Kharkiv and concluded that it was designed to create a 'sanitary zone' along the boarder, not to take Kharkiv:

Thus the Kharkiv offensive seems designed to create a buffer zone, maybe 6 miles / 10 kilometers deep, on Ukrainian land along the norther border with Russia. That it diverts Ukrainian forces from elsewhere and positions them in mostly open land for their eventual destruction is just a welcome side effect.

In a recent press conference President Putin of Russia confirmed this:

As far as the developments in the Kharkov sector are concerned, they are also to blame for these, because they shelled and, regrettably, continue to shell residential areas in border territories [of Russia], including Belgorod. Civilians are dying there, it’s clear for everyone. They fire missiles right at the city centre, at residential areas. I said publicly that if this continues, we will be forced to create a security zone, a sanitary zone. And this is what we are doing today.

As for [the seizure of] Kharkov, there are no such plans for now.

The Russian Kharkiv incursion is a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilians.

Likewise is the recent Russian destruction of electrical power generation stations in Ukraine a direct consequence of Ukrainian attacks on Russia refining facilities. As the Russian daily report on its operation in Ukraine noted on May 8:

In response to the Kiev regime's attempt to damage Russian power facilities, the Russian Armed Forces launched a long-range high-precision group strike by sea- and air-based missiles, the Kinzhal aeroballistic hypersonic missile system, unmanned aerial vehicles at power facilities, as well as enterprises of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.

The goal of the strike has been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.

Ukraine has lost some eight gigawatt of generating power and had to start rolling blackouts:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Kharkiv Incursion Forensics - Attacks On Russia And Russian Revenge

Posted by b at 15:03 UTC | Comments (24)

May 17, 2024

Russia, China Reveal Their Global Agenda

There will be more to say about the nearly 8,000 words long

Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on deepening the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership in the new era on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries (in Mandarin) (h/t Arnaud Bertrand).

But for now there are these two excerpts.

On multipolar global governance (machine translation):

The two sides pointed out that the great changes in the world have accelerated their evolution, the status and strength of emerging powers in the “global South” countries and regions have continued to increase, and the world's multipolarization has accelerated. These objective factors have accelerated the redistribution of development potential, resources, opportunities, etc., developed in a direction conducive to emerging markets and developing countries, and promoted the democratization of international relations and international fairness and justice. Countries that embrace hegemonism and power politics run counter to this, attempting to replace and subvert the recognized international order based on international law with a “rules-based order”. The two sides emphasized that the concept of building a community of human destiny and a series of global initiatives proposed by China are of great positive significance.

As an independent force in the process of establishing a multipolar world, China and Russia will fully tap the potential of their relations, promote the realization of an equal and orderly multipolar world and the democratization of international relations, and gather strength to build a fair and reasonable multipolar world.

The two sides believe that all countries have the right to independently choose their development models and political, economic, and social systems in accordance with their national conditions and the will of the people, oppose interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries, oppose unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the Security Council, and oppose ideological lines. The two sides pointed out that neocolonialism and hegemonism are completely contrary to the trend of today's era, and called for equal dialogue, the development of partnership, and the promotion of civilized exchanges and mutual learning.

The two sides will continue to firmly defend the results of the victory of the Second World War and the post-war world order enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, and oppose the denial, distortion and tampering with the history of the Second World War. The two sides pointed out that they must carry out correct historical education, protect the world's anti-fascist memorial facilities from desecration or destruction, and severely condemn the glorification and even attempts to resurrect Nazism and militarism. The two sides plan to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japan and the Great Patriotic War in 2025, and jointly promote the correct view of the history of World War II.

The 'Global South', i.e. the majority of all countries, will very much welcome this.

On the war in Ukraine (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Russia, China Reveal Their Global Agenda

Posted by b at 7:35 UTC | Comments (256)

May 16, 2024

The Al-Aqsa Flood Operation Is - Despite All Damage - Effectual

On Monday Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah held a speech which to a large part explained the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and why it can be seen as a success. (Nasrallah is currently the public spokesperson for the various Resistance groups involved in the current fight):

Sayyed Nasrallah maintained that the Palestinian resistance wanted Al-Aqsa Flood Operation to be a chance to revitalize the Palestinian cause and remind the whole world with the Palestine and Palestinian rights thrown in the oblivion.

On the other hand, some Arab regimes promoted ‘Israel’ as a normal entity that preserves democracy, according to Hezbollah leader, who added that the steadfastness of women, children and resistance fighters in Gaza has changed this situation.

Nowadays, Palestinian and the Palestinian rights are being highlighted all over the world, Sayyed Nasrallah said, adding that over 140 states voted for granting Palestine a full UN membership.

Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the Israeli envoy’s act of shredding a copy of UN Charter over a vote in favor of Palestinian rights displays the Zionist arrogance and carelessness about the international resolutions.

The most important political media scene that reflects the victory of the Palestinian resistance is the moment the Israeli UN envoy raised the picture of Hamas military commander Yahya Al-Sinwar.

Another expression of the success is the fact that Israel has achieved not even one of its war aims:

Cont. reading: The Al-Aqsa Flood Operation Is - Despite All Damage - Effectual

Posted by b at 13:40 UTC | Comments (274)

May 15, 2024

Palestine Open Thread 2024-141

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 14:45 UTC | Comments (109)

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-140

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 14:42 UTC | Comments (376)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-139

Sorry for not posting. Still a bit busy with health related issues.

Of interest (may be):

Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine) thread ...

Posted by b at 14:41 UTC | Comments (185)

May 14, 2024

Ukraine SitRep: An Army And Country At Their End

Stephen Byren writes, correctly, that the purpose of the Russian offensive towards Kharkiv is to disintegrate the Ukrainian army:

To my mind, Russia’s objective is to force Ukraine’s army to chase after invading Russian units. The idea is to cause heavy casualties on the Ukrainian side and, if all goes according to plan, either to split Ukraine’s army into two, or disintegrate it altogether.

In such a manner the idea is not just to take territory but to destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist. There are many indicators that Russia is having success in the ongoing operation.

General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, (which includes foreign fighters and Nazis units,) agrees to that. He paints an bleak picture (archived):

Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.

That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.

“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”

The Ukrainian military has pulled out parts of various brigades that are engaged in the east and is moving them north towards the Kharkiv region. This will be a hodgepodge of partly filled battalions without a unified command and with nothing left to stuff any holes elsewhere.

Budanov correctly fears that Russian can and will repeat this game in other places:

General Budanov said he expected the attacks in the Kharkiv region to last another three or four days, after which Russian forces are expected to make a hard push in the direction of Sumy, a city about 90 miles to the northwest of Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials have previously said that Russia had massed troops across the border from Sumy.

Pavlo Velycho, a Ukrainian officer operating near the Russian border in the Sumy region, said that Russian shelling of the outskirts of Sumy had recently increased.

The Russian forces can easily progress because the money allocated for fortifications in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions was paid to fictitious companies without any trenches ever being build (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: An Army And Country At Their End

Posted by b at 10:54 UTC | Comments (402)

May 13, 2024

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-138

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 16:12 UTC | Comments (189)

May 12, 2024

Palestine Open Thread 2024-137

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 14:27 UTC | Comments (226)

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-136

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 14:27 UTC | Comments (363)