Vladimir Putin Does Not Make Empty Threats

A few month ago a leak of a call between high ranking German officers appeared. They were discussing the possible deployment of a German Taurus cruse missile to Ukraine to be used against Russian targets.

It became obvious from the leak that any such deployment, aiming and firing of such a weapon can not happen without the participation of staff from the country that donated the weapon. This applies to the U.S. ATAMCS missiles, to the French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles just as it would apply to the German Taurus cruse missile:

Gerhartz, [commander of the Luftwaffe], and his subordinates discussed how much Taurus training and support Germany might need to provide if Taurus missiles were sent to Ukraine, and whether this would include targeting and programming information.
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Gerhartz  said: ″When it comes to mission planning, for example, I know how the British do it, they do it completely in reachback [i.e. with support from people who are not forward-deployed]. They also have a few people on the ground, they do that, the French don't. So, they also QC the Ukrainians when loading the SCALP, because Storm Shadow and SCALPS are relatively similar from a purely technical point of view. They've already told me that, yes, for God's sake, they would also look over the shoulders of the Ukrainians when loading the Taurus.

The U.S. is currently discussing (archived) to allow Ukraine to use of long range weapons against targets within Russia, that is beyond targets on Ukrainian and former Ukrainian ground.

This would be qualitative transformation of the war in Ukraine into a NATO war with Russia.

The Russian President Vladimir Putin made this unequivocally clear.

Answer to a media question, September 12 2024, Kremlin.ru

Question: Over the past few days, we have been hearing statements at a very high level in the UK and the United States that the Kiev regime will be allowed to strike targets deep inside Russia using Western long-range weapons. Apparently, this decision is either about to be made, or has already been made, as far as we can see. This is actually quite extraordinary. Could you comment on what is going on?

President of Russia Vladimir Putin:
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[T]he Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West. They cannot do that. These weapons are impossible to employ without intelligence data from satellites which Ukraine does not have. This can only be done using the European Union’s satellites, or US satellites – in general, NATO satellites. This is the first point.

The second point – perhaps the most important, the key point even – is that only NATO military personnel can assign flight missions to these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this.

Therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. It is about deciding whether NATO countries become directly involved in the military conflict or not.

If this decision is made, it will mean nothing short of direct involvement – it will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are parties to the war in Ukraine. This will mean their direct involvement in the conflict, and it will clearly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict dramatically.

This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.

Russia has many means to respond to such threats. This includes direct fire on targets within France, the UK and the U.S. itself.

Vladimir Putin is not known for making empty threats.

Palestine Open Thread 2024-218

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-217

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-216

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Ukraine SitRep: End Of The Kursk Incursion - Long Range Missiles - Ending The War

The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk oblast is coming to an end.

The Ukrainian command had sent its best troops and equipment into the area. It had even pushed its last motorized reserves into the operation. Last week it reinforced the contingent. But four weeks of steady Russian bombing and artillery attacks have taken their toll.

Whatever the aim of the incursion was has not been achieved. It created a short sugar-high in Ukrainian morale but that has already dissipated. 

The price was high. Half of the troops and material invested in the incursion are now gone.

Russia seems to believe that there is not much more for it to gain from this trap and started to shut it down. Yesterday a fast attack by Russian Marines and paratroopers cleared ten towns and hamlets of Ukrainian forces. Today at least three additional towns were liberated.

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Most of the tanks and armored fighting vehicles the Ukrainians had brought to the fight are gone. They will have to retreat in whatever vehicle they may find. This while being under steady bombardment. In two or three weeks the Ukrainians who survive will likely be back inside of their borders.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is in Kiev today. He will likely inform the Ukrainians that they will now be allowed to use U.S. weapons, especially longer range missiles, against targets in Russia.

There are two questions:
- How many U.S. missiles with longer reach does Ukraine still have?
- How many military targets are there left in Russia that have not yet been evacuated or have not received additional protection?

I believe that both of those numbers are low.

There was a fight within the Biden administration about the issues. The Pentagon was reportedly against allowing Ukraine to do such. The generals know what Russia can do and fear that it will retaliate. The warmongers in the State Department though seem to have won the discussion.

But it is the Pentagon that will, or will not, carry out any resupply. The Ukrainians wont get any additional missiles if the generals are determined to block those.

The Wall Street Journal reports about pressure on Ukraine to think of an endgame:

Some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more realistic in its wartime aims. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country.
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Senior European officials say Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support, something neither Washington nor Europe can realistically do.

Zelenski will have to present a Plan B, something that is more realistic than his current uncompromising stand on negotiations. For any ceasefire or peace Ukraine will have to give up on land, on quite a lot of it, and will have to fulfill additional conditions.

Should Zelenski be unable to come to such a solution someone else will be found to take up his role.

Harris And Trump Debate Whatever

Tonight the U.S. will have an election debate and the media will accompany it with their usual horse race reporting.

The pre-debate attack on Donald Trump claims that his rambling way of public talking is a sign of his old age:

At 78, former President Donald J. Trump exhibits more energy and speaks with more volume than President Biden does at 81, but he, too, has mixed up names, confused facts and stumbled over his points. Mr. Trump’s rambling speeches, sometimes incoherent statements and extreme outbursts have raised questions about his own cognitive health and, according to polls, stimulated doubts among a majority of voters.

In 2016, during his first campaign, Trump also held rambling speeches, confused facts and stumbled over points. It was and is his special way of talking to crowds and his followers love him for it.

To now claim that this very unchanged style is a sign of old-age Trump is inconsistent with that history.

But the point will be repeated as soon as the debate is done.

Trump'ss program, as far as he has one, does not differ much from his previous one. Some social red meat for cultural conservatives and economic lunacies for libertarians. Add a few crud ideas he will soon forget about. I generally like his somewhat isolationist stand on foreign policy but there is little chance that any of it will be implemented should he win the election.

The be-partisan foreign policy blob which rules in Washington will sabotage any attempts to make peace with Russia and/or to discard NATO.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is an empty vessel. Voters have never liked her. I have seen her nicknamed Incitata. It fits. The favorite horse of Roman Emperor Caligula was named Incitatus (from Latin 'incitare' - 'to encourage'):

According to Suetonius, in the Lives of the Twelve Caesars (121 AD), Caligula planned to make Incitatus a consul, and the horse would "invite" dignitaries to dine with him in a house outfitted with servants there to entertain such events. Suetonius also wrote that the horse had a stable of marble, with an ivory manger, purple blankets and a collar of precious stones.

Calligula's idea was to mock the Senate.

The blob is doing likewise with the public by offering someone who has no initiative of her own but will faithfully defend the implementation of anything the blob will desire. She is the most more-of-the-same candidate I can think of.

Harris and Trump are the two politicians with the most negative public ratings. That they are the only choices available makes the whole theater a mockery of the public.

One can conclude that U.S. is some form of oligarchy with a facade that is supposed to look like - but is not - a democracy.

Zionists Are Calling For More War And May Well Get It

The daily Israeli murder campaign in Gaza continues unabated.

Netranyahoo is blocking (vid) any proposal for a ceasefire by adding new conditions to the already agreed upon details. His latest quest is to get permanent military control of the so called Philadelphia Corridor which designates the borderline between Egypt and Gaza.

There are two international agreements, brokered by the U.S. and agreed upon by Egypt and Israel, which prohibited anything more than a temporary light force in the corridor:

The US had assured Egypt that Israel's actions along the border would comply with both the 1978 Camp David Accords and the 2005 Memorandum of Understanding. These agreements place clear limitations on Israel’s military presence near Egypt's borders, allowing only small Israeli units for security purposes, and were designed to ensure stability and avoid prolonged occupation in sensitive areas.

Netanyahoo does not care at all what the White House might have promised to Egypt. Biden's timidity in punishing him lets him ignore all interventions.

Zionist settler pogroms in the West Bank, supported by the government, threaten to turn the situation there into the same as in the Gaza strip. As Haaretz editorializes (archived):

Cont. reading: Zionists Are Calling For More War And May Well Get It

Palestine Open Thread 2024-215

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine - CIA/MI-6 Chiefs Push For New Terror Campaign Against Russia

U.S. officials admit that there is no way left for Ukraine to win the war.

The acknowledgment should lead to change in policies. But the U.S. is out of ideas. It will continue to push the downtrodden Ukraine along the Primrose path.

Here is Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin:

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned on Friday there was "no one capability" that would turn the war in Ukraine in Kyiv's favour after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to let his forces use its long-range weapons to strike Russia.
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"There's no one capability that will in and of itself be decisive in this campaign," Austin told reporters at the end of the meeting.

There are no super weapons left on the shelves that could change the picture. Everything that could be used has been used and failed.

The Kursk incursion was the last but short lived attempt to change the picture.

It did create some illusions ...

The War in Ukraine Is Already Over—Russia Just Doesn't Know it Yet - Reason
A front-line report from the Kursk offensive reveals that in the battle for hearts and minds, Ukraine’s resolve outpaces Russia’s crumbling morale, signaling an inevitable conclusion.

... only to soon be caught up reality:

Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion - CNN

The Kursk incursion has failed.

Cont. reading: Ukraine - CIA/MI-6 Chiefs Push For New Terror Campaign Against Russia

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-214

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Palestine:

• Sep 2 - Ukraine - U.S. 'Experts' Throw The Towel
• Sep 3 - Ukraine - Russian Missile Strike Hits Swedish Instructors
• Sep 6 - Ukraine SitRep: Ukrainian Army Chief Reveals Lack of Strategy Behind Kursk Incursion
  Related:
  - Sweden’s foreign minister announces shock departure from politics - AP
  - The British illustrated the praise of Kiev from the Swedish Foreign Minister with a picture from the cemetery - EADaily
  - Glenn Diesen – The Increase in Ukrainian Casualties - BraveNewEurope

• Sep 7 - Caitlin Johnstone - Trump Vs. Cheney
  Related:
  - The Zweikaiserproblem of the US Empire - Agit Papadakis

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-214