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Inside The Fight Of MI6 And CIA Proxies Over Who Is To Lead Ukraine
This fight over the future of Ukraine is intensifying.
Not only on the frontline, or between local power centers in Kiev, but also between the security services of the Anglo-American ‘allies’.
On Wednesday Kiev experienced a gun fight between units of the main (military) intelligence service GRU and forces of the internal security service (SBU) of Ukraine.
The confusing incident has a multifold background. Events in Ukraine attempts to summarize the reasons:
First, the old conflict between the SBU and the GUR. In this case, it’s actually a question of the SBU and the new GUR leadership against the old leader of the GUR, Kirilo Budanov, and the legions of GUR warriors who remain loyal to Budanov. On the side of the SBU, we have its ruthless leader Oleksandr Poklad, also known as ‘the Strangler’.
Mapping onto this first conflict is a second one. On the side of the SBU is Zelensky’s power clan, which has long been frustrated with Budanov’s excessive ambitions. The fact that Budanov still wields a private army of prominent, ideologically fanatical warlords displeases the president and his private court. Budanov has also been trying to foil Zelensky’s plan to appoint the ultra-loyal Poklad as de jure head of the SBU. …
Third and most importantly, revenue. More precisely, competition over control of the highly lucrative scam call centre business, which employs around 60,000 Ukrainians and brings in $1 billion USD a month. The Europeans have been pushing Zelensky to crack down on the industry, which very obviously operates with the sanction of Ukraine’s ‘law enforcement’ agencies, particularly the GUR and SBU.
There have previously been such incidents between the GRU and SBU. One shootout was over the control of a luxury vacation retreat. Others over more valuable businesses:
Today’s shootout comes right as Zelensky announced a new law to target the scam call centres. Just in time, because over the past few months, there has been a spate of terrorist attacks and murders around the world, all linked to the GUR and its scam call centres — torture and decapitation in Bali, explosions in Monaco, and worst of all, naive European burghers scammed out of their savings. Constantly linked with this transnational web of violence is the GUR’s bizarre menagerie of fanatical warlords, along with more traditional mafia bosses.
These mafia like turf wars have long become normal in Ukraine.
But there is more behind the recent one than a hassle about phone scam revenues.
As head of the GRU Kirilo Budanov had become a serious competitor for the (acting) president Vladimir Zelinski. He was promoted away from the GRU, and thereby cut off from most of his resources and soldiers, to lead the office of the president. While this is a powerful position, the step was taken to keep Budanov under control.
Even deeper behind this is a fight between the Zelenski allies in the British MI6, and the CIA over who is to take the lead in Ukraine.
As Black Mountian Analysis writes:
Cont. reading: Inside The Fight Of MI6 And CIA Proxies Over Who Is To Lead Ukraine
Cause And Effect Of High Diesel Prices
The Trump administration has yet to learn of cause and effect …
Bessent Blames High Energy Prices on Ukraine’s Russia Strikes (archived) – Bloomberg, Sep 2 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities were one reason for rising global energy prices, citing those attacks before mentioning the war against Iran when asked about the elevated cost of living in the US.
“We are going through an energy shock right now, due to both the war in Ukraine, because Ukraine has decided that they want to blow up Russian energy assets and refined products — so that is creating upward price pressure on a global basis — and then the conflict in Iran,” Bessent said on Fox News on Wednesday.
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The strikes have forced Moscow to extend a ban on diesel exports through the end of the month. That development, combined with relatively fewer cargoes of fuel making it through the Strait of Hormuz than crude, has tightened supplies worldwide.
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US intel guided Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy sites (archived) – FT, Oct 12 2025
The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin’s economy and force him to the negotiating table.
American intelligence shared with Kyiv has enabled strikes on important Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the frontline, according to multiple Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.
The previously unreported support has intensified since midsummer and has been crucial in helping Ukraine carry out attacks that Joe Biden’s White House discouraged. Kyiv’s strikes have driven up energy prices in Russia and prompted Moscow to cut diesel exports and import fuel.
Iran Open Thread 2026-192
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-191
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-190
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
How Ukraine’s 40-Day Campaign Has Influenced Russia
On June 24 the (acting) president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelinski announced a 40-day campaign:
“I approved a 40-day operation by the Service to influence the aggressor state in order to press for an end to the war,” Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram.
Ukraine has for months engaged in waves of medium-range and long-range strikes on targets in Russia or Russian-held areas, mainly focused on the oil industry.
The campaign was launched while life in Kiev was still relative peaceful. Russian attacks were aimed at industrial sites but tried to avoid civilian targets. Ukrainian im- and exports via Odessa harbor were fully functional. The whole country had sufficient energy supplies.
During the campaign the Ukrainian forces used drones to attack Russia’s oil industry. Strikes on power installations in Crimea, Moscow and St. Peterburg followed. Ukraine soon added all Russian shipping and harbor installations in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea to its target list. Last but not least it started to strike at purely civilian targets in Russia like the warehouses of Wildberry, the Russian Amazon.
The campaign was designed to influence Russian politics as well as Ukraine’s supporters in the West:
Lutsevych suggests Ukraine’s successes in bringing the war to Russia – before and within the 40-day campaign – may have contributed to a change of attitude in the Trump administration towards Ukraine.
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“I think it shows it is done for Russia in its attempt to conquer Ukraine and is important for the strategic posture of Ukraine’s forces in the future, although it is more symbolic at the moment.”
Zelenski’s campaign however did not take into account that Russia could react and would hit back.
The Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, intended to create transport problems for Russia, were responded to by drone attacks on Ukrainian gas stations. More than 300 of those throughout the country’s east have been destroyed by Russian drone strikes. Additionally, Russian forces targeted Ukraine’s railways. So far nearly 500 locomotives have been destroyed or damaged.
Both measures have made the re-supply of Ukrainian front line groupings increasingly difficult.
Attacks on Russian related shipping in the Azov and Black Sea were likewise mirrored.
Cont. reading: How Ukraine’s 40-Day Campaign Has Influenced Russia
War On Iran: – IRGC Defeats U.S. Strait Clearing Scheme
Last Friday, August 28, the U.S. Central Command claimed to have removed all sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that U.S. forces have cleared Iranian sea mines from the internationally recognized shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the routes are now open to commercial shipping.
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The announcement follows earlier statements by President Donald Trump that U.S. forces had removed or detonated mines in international waters in the strait. Cooper’s latest video provides CENTCOM’s formal operational confirmation that the Traffic Separation Scheme has been cleared.
From the position of the U.S. this was, of course, good news.
There was the slight problem that no one believed it:
U.S. allies have privately assessed that some mines may not have been cleared. Earlier estimates from the International Maritime Organization and industry groups placed the number of mines in the historic shipping lanes at around 80, with some assessments higher.
Allied officials have also warned that sea currents can move mines and that residual risks could remain outside the main monitored lanes.
The International Maritime Organization and maritime information centers continue to advise vessels to exercise maximum caution in the area. Shipping companies and insurers are also conducting their own risk assessments.
Iran continued to warn ships to not use any routes besides the one’s designated by it.
(However, there has been no evidence yet that any mines had indeed been laid.)
On Sunday Iran said that the U.S. had attacked Iranian military positions on the island of Larak which sits in the northern edge of the Strait of Hormuz. This was the first attack after a month of relative peace. The strike resulted in the death and injury of several Iranian servicemen.
CentCom later confirmed the strike:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – IRGC Defeats U.S. Strait Clearing Scheme
Iran Open Thread 2026-189
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-188
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-187
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-187
Budanov – Ukraine Is Losing 30,000 Soldiers Per Month
There have been few reliable data of human losses in the war of Ukraine. The estimates vary widely. The official number, especially on the Ukrainian side, are formed by propaganda.
In February of this year the (acting) President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelinski said that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since February 2022:
The last time Zelensky gave an update on Ukraine’s casualties was in December 2024, when he put deaths at 43,000.
In his interview with French television, he said: “In Ukraine, officially the number of soldiers killed on the battlefield – either professionals or those conscripted – is 55,000.”
The official number of dead cited by Zelensky is considerably lower than Ukraine’s total losses. As he said himself, “a large number of people” are registered as missing.
As of six months ago, Ukraine’s interior ministry had recorded more than 70,000 people as officially missing – both soldiers and civilians – but the breakdown is never given.
The true figure may be higher – information about the number of dead is highly sensitive and affects morale.
Five month later Zelenski’s number had shrunk by 5,000:
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Fox News reported 50,000 killed and 400,000 wounded Ukrainian servicemen.
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“Let’s be honest, I don’t want to be too frank about this because the Russians will understand what is happening with our army. So, we have about 50,000 soldiers killed, and approximately 400,000 wounded, and there is a huge number of missing in action,” said the President of Ukraine.
At the end of July 2026, when Zelenski gave the latest number, the war had been waged for 53 months. The average monthly losses for Ukraine, according to his numbers, have thus been some 8,500 dead and wounded per month.
Yesterday the head of the Presidential Office General Kyrylo Budanov made a comment which suggests a different, much higher, number:
Cont. reading: Budanov – Ukraine Is Losing 30,000 Soldiers Per Month
Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit
On Wednesday CIA Director John Ratcliffe landed in Moscow for a few hours of talk with Russian security officials. The trip was no secret as the planes transporting Ratcliffe and his entourage were readily identified.
There was no official announcement from either side about the content of the talks. U.S. media though were splattered with ‘leaks’ of more or less laughable details.
Let’s start with the New York Times:
C.I.A. Chief Delivered Bleak Assessment of Russia’s War in Secretive Moscow Visit (archived) – NY Times, Aug 27 2026
John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, made a secretive visit to Moscow this week to privately share his bleak assessment of the state of the Russian war against Ukraine, and to urge the Russians to cut a deal before their military and economic situation gets worse, current and former officials said.
Mr. Ratcliffe delivered the message to Aleksanndr V. Bortikov, the head of Russia’s F.S.B. intelligence service, …
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C.I.A. analysts have long questioned whether Mr. Putin’s advisers have given him honest assessments of the war’s trajectory and toll.
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Some officials said they hoped that Mr. Putin, a former intelligence officer himself, would see a message from the C.I.A. director as more urgent and credible than communications through normal diplomatic channels.
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It is not clear whether Mr. Ratcliffe’s message presages any change in U.S. policy toward Russia or Ukraine.
There are number of reasons why the claims in the above report are obviously fake.
– The Russian side of the war in Ukraine is the one that is winning. There is no real fear in Russia that its military or economic situation is getting worse.
– If Putin is, as alleged, not getting honest assessments from his people, why would anyone assume that whatever minion Ratcliffe talks to would turn around and tell Putin the ‘truth’. If Putin were indeed isolated by his people the only way to truly reach him would be to talk with him in person. Trump could simply phone him up it that were what is needed.
– Bortnikov is indeed head of Russia’s FSB intelligence service. But the FSB is tasked with internal security and counterespionage. It has little to do with the war in Ukraine. It is not the right partner for the CIA to talk to.
– Moreover it was Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the Russia’s foreign intelligence service SVR, who confirmed the meeting with Ratcliffe:
According to Naryshkin, such negotiations with the heads of the special services are part of the work and are held almost weekly.
“The meeting took place, there is nothing unusual in this,” Naryshkin assured. “In the practice of special services, meetings of managers, personal meetings or online are part of our work. So the meeting with John Ratcliffe is a working format.”
At the same time, Naryshkin refused to tell what issues were discussed, explaining that they were within the competence of the intelligence services.
The NY Times report is obviously bollocks, solely intended to sow doubt and confusion.
A Washington Post report about an alleged motive for the trip is likewise confused:
Cont. reading: Funny Media Speculations About CIA Ratcliffe’s Russia Visit
Iran Open Thread 2026-186
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-185
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-184
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
There Is No Justification -But Hype- For Current AI Investment
I have previously written some bits about the AI-bubble:
I lamented that the much hyped Large Language Models (LLMs), as proffered by OpenAI and Anthropic, are mostly unreliable search engines. There are only a few real use cases for these. That is why I argue that these do not justify the current AI investments.
But the AI companies (and those who promote them) want lots of money. As their is no real use for their very expensive models they always point to future cases. When asked about current use gains, they divert and point to science fiction.
A master of this tactic is Scam Altman, the head of OpenAI.
In a recent interview of him he was asked how he personally is using his company’s product. That is of course a softball question. It is like asking the CEO of Mercedes why he loves to drive his company’s cars. Any reasonable salesperson would catch the softball and laud his products.
Altman, however, veers off (@20:25):
Q: How are you using ChatGPT? How are you using it every day and what’s that look like?
Altman: Ahem- let me answer a more interesting question than that. How I would like to use it.
I think we are close to a world where you can have like a descendant of ChatGPT watch your computer screen all the time, watch every meeting you are in, like record every call, everything like that, have perfect context of your whole life, everything you see …
When I watched that blubber I had two questions:
- Who the hell would want such a thing?
- Why doesn’t Altman say how he is using his product?
A second softball interview with Altman, published three days ago, answers the second question.
Sam Altman is not using ChatGPT (@5:58) or Codecs, his company’s other product.
Altman: I have for 20 years been using computers the same way. I now have a magic thing called codecs. So do you. So does everybody.
That means I should completely be using my computer in a different way. I should not be clicking around uh you know pasting from one messaging app to another. I should not be scrolling mindlessly through my emails and trying to figure out which one is like least painful for me to open and respond when I don’t want to be dealing with it. I should not be like keeping a to-do list and doing sort of this like these wrote computer tasks in the same way that I have for so long.
And yet there’s like something in my mind that is encoded that like doing this kind of stuff is what it means to work and what it means to be productive.
What Altman is really saying here is that his company’s product is not useful for what he does every day. It could be useful, he say, if …, if … and if …. But it currently isn’t. At least not for him.
But still he is out there to hustle for more money to be thrown into ever bigger OpenAI models which will add nothing of value.
It is no wonder then that the rats are leaving his ship:
OpenAI’s Head of Data Centers Has Left the Company (archived) – WSJ
A key executive overseeing OpenAI’s data-center build-out, Chris Malone, left the company last week, according to people familiar with the matter, joining a wave of leadership departures ahead of a planned public offering.
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His departure comes amid a broader exodus at the firm, which is working toward an IPO that is expected in 2027 and racing to catch up to rival Anthropic in sales to business customers. In recent weeks, Chief Revenue Officer Denise Dresser, Chief Operating Officer Brad Lightcap, and Fidji Simo, who served as second-in-command to Chief Executive Sam Altman, have all left.
OpenAI is on its death bed. Its demise will likely cause a larger crash. Then Microsoft will swallow its carcass.
Its main competitor, Anthropic, is just as lunatic (archived) and will also go down:
Cont. reading: There Is No Justification -But Hype- For Current AI Investment
War On Iran: – New U.S. Sanctions Are Unlikely To Work
As the U.S./Israeli bombing campaign against Iran has utterly failed, U.S. President Donald Trump moved the task of regime changing Iran from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Moving the task from a bygone TV host to a (twice) failed fund manager is unlikely to change the outcome of the conflict.
Ten days ago Bessent pre-announced a new economic campaign against Iran. Despite the time it has taken him since to form a new policy the outcome is meager. There are a few new sanctions against Iranian entities that may well hurt. But Iran has been under U.S. sanctions since the birth of Islamic Republic in 1979 and it is used to it.
The major new threat by the U.S. is of secondary sanction against non-Iranian entities which continue to deal with that country. But Bessent’s nearly eight minute long speech yesterday was vague on real measures involved in this. No timing or deadlines were uttered.
The reasons for that are obvious. Any attempt to get serious with secondary sanctions, especially against China, will hit back. Bessent inadvertently conceded that:
In an acknowledgment that a barrage of new sanctions aimed at countries around the world could have unwanted consequences, Mr. Bessent added: “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”
The whole threat was thereby revealed as a bluff:
Bessent’s announcement followed a familiar pattern. He’d spent days promising an “economic D-Day,” the sanctions equivalent of storming the beaches of Normandy. But when the announcement finally came, as one of our reporters put it, it was more like a warning shot.
The Chinese government for one does not agree with U.S. sanctions:
“Economic warfare and maximum‑pressure tactics do no help in resolving problems. They will only further fuel conflicts, trigger risk spillovers, disrupt global economic and financial order and impair the rights and interests of other countries,” [Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian ] said.
The top priority is to de‑escalate the situation and return to the track of dialogue and negotiation at an early date, Lin said, adding that China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its own legitimate rights and interests, Lin added.
Tehran will assume that this new round of sanctions is intended to give the U.S. time to prepare for another attack. Its advantage lies in its ability to preempt it:
Over the weekend, Iran’s security chief issued a warning that any country that joined U.S. efforts to isolate Iran would be “regarded by us as an enemy.” Should the economic pressure ramp up, one analyst told Anton, Iran is likely to look for a way to put fresh military pressure on the U.S. or its Gulf allies.
Last night Iran damaged another tanker which had tried to pass through the Strait under U.S. protection.
There are open question Scott Bessent has yet to answer:
– What comes next? When?
– How, given that the military option has failed, will the U.S. react when (not if) Iran escalates?
War On Iran: – Borg Concedes Loss Of Control In Middle East
At least a part of the U.S. foreign policy borg has come to the conclusion that the U.S. has lost its primary role in the Middle East. There seems to be little appetite to regain the position.
The purpose of this post is to collect these voices.
Marc Lynch writes in Foreign Affairs:
The End of the American Middle East – Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order (archived) – Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2026
The American Middle East is finished. The regional order that has prevailed since 1991 has been one of the many casualties of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The American and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proved the bankruptcy of decades of sanctions and violence. The inability of the United States to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks or to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has fatally undermined the core security bargain that justified its network of military bases in the region. And Israel’s increasingly threatening posture and abandonment of any pretense of interest in reaching an accommodation with the Palestinians have ended Washington’s decades-long mission of bringing its Arab allies and Israel together into an enduring security partnership.
Nevertheless, at the end March Lynch, being a liberal interventionist, argues to further ‘spread democracy’ in the name of ‘human rights’ in the Middle East. It is what the instinct of the ‘liberals’ in the Democratic party prescribes. It is the reason why the Democrats, should they regain power, would likely support a prolongation of the war against Iran.
In the Atlantic the neo-conservative Robert Kagan ponders the consequences of the U.S. defeat:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Borg Concedes Loss Of Control In Middle East
Iran Open Thread 2026-183
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-182
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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