Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

RAND Corp is a government and industry financed large research institute. Founded shortly after the end of the second world war it mostly works for the Pentagon by developing policies and strategies.

In April 2019 RAND published a report about Extending Russia (pdf).

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The report summary explained its purpose:

As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options).

RAND developed policy options in those four fields. It then evaluated their benefit, cost and risks as well as their likelihood of success.

Here is their summary table for economic measures:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-22

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Spain Debunks Russiagate like New York Times Letter Bomb Story

Just three days ago I mocked a New York Times story that used 'Russiagate' like claims by 'U.S. officials' to tie a number of letter bomb incidents in Spain to some 'Russian terrorist organization'.

U.S. Officials Claim More 'Russiagate' Like Nonsense

According to what U.S. officials claim some anti-Kremlin fringe group in Russia was used by a Russian intelligence service to somehow send letter bombs from Valladolid, Spain, to some offices in Madrid.

But why would Russian intelligence run such a nonsense campaign? Why would it use a problematic fringe group of Russian crazies to do so. Why in Spain? Why not in Poland, Germany or France? What is the evidence?

None of those questions get answered. Instead rumors and hot air assumptions are put together to make the claims somewhat less outrageous. This is on the same level as the lies about 'weapons of mass destruction in Iraq' the Times printed 20 years ago.
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We know that 'U.S. intelligence' is bullshit and that U.S. official are liars, especially with regards to anything around Ukraine.

We know that because 'U.S. officials' said so:

That makes the publishing of the above story by the Times even more egregious.

Three days on the Spanish police arrested the guy most likely responsible for making and sending out those letter bombs:

The man was detained in the northern town of Miranda de Ebro, and police searched his home.

The suspect is a retired Spanish citizen with the initials P.G.P. who is tech-savvy and very active on social networks, the ministry said.

Cont. reading: Spain Debunks Russiagate like New York Times Letter Bomb Story

Ukraine Claims Orderly Retreat From City It Lost Days Ago

This is currently at the top of the Yahoo homepage.

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Ukraine forces pull back from Donbas town after onslaught

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces have conducted an organized retreat from a town in the eastern region of the Donbas, an official said Wednesday, in what is a rare but modest battlefield triumph for the Kremlin after a series of setbacks in its invasion that began almost 11 months ago.

Reading the headline I was surprised. Did the Ukrainian command suddenly get sense and ordered the retreat from Bakhmut, which the U.S. has asked for? It would make sense because Bakhmut is where half of the Ukrainian army currently gets ground into bloody dust.

But alas. The second paragraph provides that it is just another fake news story.

The Ukrainian army retreated from the salt-mining town of Soledar to “preserve the lives of the personnel,” Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s forces in the east, told The Associated Press.

The soldiers pulled back to previously prepared defensive positions, he said.

Moscow has portrayed the battle for Soledar, which lies near the city of Bakhmut, as key to capturing the entire Donbas.
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Russia claimed almost two weeks ago that it had taken Soledar, but Ukraine denied it.

It is easy to test who was or is lying here.

It was on January 13, 12 days and not two weeks ago, that Russia publicly claimed to have taken the center of Soledar.

Cont. reading: Ukraine Claims Orderly Retreat From City It Lost Days Ago

Please Support Moon of Alabama

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twice a year I ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going as it is.

Most readers of this site value our analyses. Some even laud us:

Chomsky: Advanced US Weaponry in Ukraine Is Sustaining Battlefield Stalemate - Truthout - Dec 22, 2022

Noam Chomsky: What Merkel had in mind we do not know. We do know that there is no basis in the historical or diplomatic record for her claims. I am inclined to agree with the astute commentator who posts under the name “Moon of Alabama.” He points out that “Merkel is under very harsh critique not only in the U.S. but also in her own conservative party. She is now out to justify her previous decisions as well as the current bad outcome in Ukraine. My hunch is that she is making things up. Unfortunately she also creates serious damage.”

He proceeds to a close analysis of the texts to justify this conclusion, which is the most plausible one I’ve seen.

Others are fond of its vivid comment section. I am very proud to host, and nurture it, to the best of my abilities.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

This website is a tribute not just to the proprietor but to the idea of democracy. The general conclusions reached here over the past nine months (for example) have consistently outperformed the media, the Academy and the political castes which amount to an incredibly expensive and complex and enormously staffed engine designed -in theory at least- to arrive at a realistic assessment of the situation.

Cont. reading: Please Support Moon of Alabama

Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Last week, following two days of heavy fighting along the southern front in Ukraine, I concluded that the expected push from the south into the back of the Ukrainian forces at the Donetzk frontline, was finally happening.

Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front

I was wrong. I, and other analysts following the war, had been deceived by the sudden rush of news from that frontline. It said that Russian forces made progress in a large number of towns. But nearly as soon as I had published my piece that news died down. In the following days nothing happened but the usual exchange of artillery fire and minor local clashes.

I am not sure what happened. But the Ukrainian army also seemed to have believed that something big was coming as it had rushed an additional mechanized brigade to that line.

While the big one has not happened yet there are several probing attacks in the area with some successes around Vuhledar.

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Dima of the Military Summary channel noted (vid) a Russian report which said that two Ukrainian officers had crossed the southern frontline and surrendered to Russian forces. He speculates that the whole fluff up in the news was created as a diversion to allow for a secure extraction of those officers. We have no evidence for that but it may well have happened that way.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-21

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

U.S. Officials Claim More 'Russiagate' Like Nonsense

At the end of last year a letter bomb campaign in Spain hit several offices:

In late November and early December 2022, a number of letter bombs were mailed to locations across Spain. Packages were received at high-profile individuals and locations, including the Prime Minister of Spain's Moncloa residence, the Ukrainian and U.S. embassies in Madrid, Torrejon Air Base, and the arms manufacturer Instalaza. One person has been injured in the attacks—a security officer at the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid.
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Spain's High Court was reported to have opened an investigation for a possible case of terrorism.

In December 2022, Spanish authorities disclosed they believed the letters were postmarked from the city of Valladolid.

Spain has so far not concluded which person or group might have sent the letters and what the possible motives behind the campaign were.

That does not seem to matter for the some 'U.S. officials' which try to pin the case to Russia. The story is a continuation of their fraudulent 'Russiagate' fairytales.

The stenographers at the New York Times thus headline:

Russian Agents Suspected of Directing Far-Right Group to Mail Bombs in Spain
U.S. officials say the operation may be a signal by Russia that the country and its proxies could carry out more terrorist actions in Europe if nations continue supporting Ukraine.

On might expect some evidence when such wide reaching claims are made. But alas, none is provided.

The quite long story is based on the following sources:

Cont. reading: U.S. Officials Claim More 'Russiagate' Like Nonsense

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-20

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-19

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• Jan 17 - Ukraine SitRep - Media Ignorance, Counter-Artillery War, Three Lost Armies
• Jan 18 - Losing In Ukraine
• Jan 19 - Ukraine - Pressing For Tanks
• Jan 21 - Ukraine - Russian Army Activates Southern Front
  Related:
  - Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump - Big Serge
  - U.S. officials advise Ukraine to wait on offensive, official says - Reuters
  - U.S. Military Vets in Ukraine Are Fighting Each Other in Court - Intercept
  - Ukraine Won’t Get Leopard 2 or M1 Abrams Tanks: Does It Matter? - Daniel Davis / 1945
  
  - The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It's About Germany - M. Whitney - Feb 2022
  - Nord Stream Who? - American Conservative
  - Top U.S. officials don't want to give Ukraine tanks despite German pressure - NBC News

> Officials say both Defense Secretary Austin and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Milley are against sending tanks, and there is frustration in the Biden administration with Germany's push. <

Germany's push? Who is pushing whom in this?

Thorsten Benner @thorstenbenner - 7:40 UTC · 22 Jan 2023

"US offers used tanks from its own stocks plus long term industrial partnership to every European country that can deliver Leopard 2 to Ukraine", German defence industry circles claim. "Each country that accepts US offer is lost for German defence industry".
- Deutsche Panzerdebatte: Welche Rolle spielen amerikanische Rüstungsinteressen? (in German) - NZZ

• Jan 20 - When Media Provide 'Analyses'
  Related:
  - Editorial: 'decades' - Referred report headline: 'a decade' - Actual report: 'three to five years'.

A Brutal New Phase of Putin’s Terrible War in Ukraine - New York Times Editorial

> But according to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank, Russia faces decades of economic stagnation and regression even if the war ends soon. <

The Cost of War: Russian Economy Faces a Decade of Regress - Carnegie Endowment

> The Russian economy’s prewar potential was not overly large, with growth at 2–3 percent per year. The war against Ukraine and external restrictions have lowered it to about 1 percent. For now, the economy’s development will be put into reverse and it will take three to five years for that decline to come to a halt. <

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-19