Moon of Alabama Brecht quote

Monthly Archives

July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
July 09, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-154

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 16:55 UTC | Comments (53)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-153

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 16:54 UTC | Comments (102)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-152

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Posted by b at 16:54 UTC | Comments (101)

July 08, 2025

Ukraine - Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand

The Russian military has increased its operational tempo in Ukraine. There is (still) no big arrow movement but a rise in activity along the frontline.

On top of this come frequent drone and missile raids deep into the territory of Ukraine. The numbers are mind boggling:

Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA - 14:49 UTC · Jul 8, 2025
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. ...

That's nearly 100 long range drones per day which target Kiev and other bigger cities. These are by the way no longer Iran made Shahed drones but a third generation development based on the original design. These drones are now bigger. They have new engines and fly faster and higher. Their load of explosives is now about 90 kilogram, double that of the original version. For each of these drones launched against Ukraine there is an additional decoy drone flying along. The decoys look similar but are not armed and much cheaper. The are to attract the air defenses while the real drones pass through.

Recent targets have been Ukrainian refineries, industrial objects and, during the last days, recruiting offices of the Ukrainian military.

These offices are in public buildings. Their addresses are naturally known as the whole mobilization process for additional soldiers is being run by them. The recruiters are hated by the population. Ukrainians are published the  addresses of mobilization offices with requests to Russia to hit them.

At the frontline the area northwest of Donetsk city is the most crucial. The Russian forces are in the process of semi-encircling Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka (see maps below).

The New York Times writes (archived) of the later one:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand

Posted by b at 17:14 UTC | Comments (260)

July 07, 2025

Trump Caves Again Over Tariffs - Uncertainty Increases

On April 2 U.S. President Donald Trump declared a 'Liberation Day' by introducing tariffs on nearly all imports to the United States.

Which led me to predict:

The 'invisible hand' of the markets will respond to Trump's moves by showing him a very visible finger.

The following days confirmed my take.

The tariff rates Trump announced were basically picked from hot air. The whole idea behind them were based on the weird theories of Steve Miran, the Chairman of Trump's President Council of Economic Advisors. They did not make sense.

By April 9 the markets hit back:

Treasury yields spiked on Wednesday as investors bailed out of what has been perceived as the world’s safest instrument on expectations of crumbling foreign demand as tariffs take effect.
...
Yields settled down after China called for dialogue with the U.S. on trade, and then moved right back near the highs of the day after China said it was increasing its tariffs on the U.S. to 84%.
...
“Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation,” said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research.

Shortly thereafter Trump had to pull back (archived):

The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.

Trump's unsteadiness on tariffs increased the uncertainty of economic decisions. Uncertainty is a poison, suppressing real economic activities.

The Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis produces hundreds of economic statistics. It includes several which are measuring uncertainty:

bigger

That FRED graph only included February. The doubt about Trump's economic policies had pushed it that high. The consequences of his tariff games were not yet visible.

Here is the current FRED overview graph of economic uncertainty. The index has reached a new record high:

Cont. reading: Trump Caves Again Over Tariffs - Uncertainty Increases

Posted by b at 15:17 UTC | Comments (289)

July 06, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-151

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 13:25 UTC | Comments (311)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-150

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 13:24 UTC | Comments (170)

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-149

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-149

Posted by b at 13:24 UTC | Comments (231)

July 04, 2025

CIA: Our Trump-Russiagate Claims Were Corrupt, Our Claims On Iran Are ...

The CIA has published a 'tradecraft review' of the 2016 'Intelligence Community Assessment' which had claimed that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election.

The review found what had been obvious to anyone. The 2016 assessment had not followed the normal process for such papers but had based its conclusions on no or insignificant evidence.

Or, as the NY Post headlines: Obama’s Trump-Russia collusion report was corrupt from start

A bombshell new CIA review of the Obama administration’s spy agencies’ assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election to help Donald Trump was deliberately corrupted by then-CIA Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, who were “excessively involved” in its drafting, and rushed its completion in a “chaotic,” “atypical” and “markedly unconventional” process that raised questions of a “potential political motive.”

Further, Brennan’s decision to include the discredited Steele dossier, over the objections of the CIA’s most senior Russia experts, “undermined the credibility” of the assessment.

At that time the ICE was leaked to various media outlets. It was finally published shortly before Trump's first inauguration.

As I wrote at that time:

Up to today there is no public evidence that Russia hacked the Democratic National Council and/or released DNC material to Wikileaks. After today's new intelligence report (pdf) there is still no such evidence. ... There are rather wild assertions and a lot of conjecture but zero facts that could be accepted as proof.

When I wrote the above on January 6 2017 I tried to set it the story into the bigger picture:

Cont. reading: CIA: Our Trump-Russiagate Claims Were Corrupt, Our Claims On Iran Are ...

Posted by b at 14:05 UTC | Comments (344)

July 03, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-148

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 13:27 UTC | Comments (186)