Palestine Open Thread 2025-154

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-153

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-152

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Ukraine - Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand

The Russian military has increased its operational tempo in Ukraine. There is (still) no big arrow movement but a rise in activity along the frontline.

On top of this come frequent drone and missile raids deep into the territory of Ukraine. The numbers are mind boggling:

Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA - 14:49 UTC · Jul 8, 2025

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. ...

That's nearly 100 long range drones per day which target Kiev and other bigger cities. These are by the way no longer Iran made Shahed drones but a third generation development based on the original design. These drones are now bigger. They have new engines and fly faster and higher. Their load of explosives is now about 90 kilogram, double that of the original version. For each of these drones launched against Ukraine there is an additional decoy drone flying along. The decoys look similar but are not armed and much cheaper. The are to attract the air defenses while the real drones pass through.

Recent targets have been Ukrainian refineries, industrial objects and, during the last days, recruiting offices of the Ukrainian military.

These offices are in public buildings. Their addresses are naturally known as the whole mobilization process for additional soldiers is being run by them. The recruiters are hated by the population. Ukrainians are published the  addresses of mobilization offices with requests to Russia to hit them.

At the frontline the area northwest of Donetsk city is the most crucial. The Russian forces are in the process of semi-encircling Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka (see maps below).

The New York Times writes (archived) of the later one:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - Drone Mass Production Lets Russia Gain Upper Hand

Trump Caves Again Over Tariffs - Uncertainty Increases

On April 2 U.S. President Donald Trump declared a 'Liberation Day' by introducing tariffs on nearly all imports to the United States.

Which led me to predict:

The 'invisible hand' of the markets will respond to Trump's moves by showing him a very visible finger.

The following days confirmed my take.

The tariff rates Trump announced were basically picked from hot air. The whole idea behind them were based on the weird theories of Steve Miran, the Chairman of Trump's President Council of Economic Advisors. They did not make sense.

By April 9 the markets hit back:

Treasury yields spiked on Wednesday as investors bailed out of what has been perceived as the world’s safest instrument on expectations of crumbling foreign demand as tariffs take effect.
...
Yields settled down after China called for dialogue with the U.S. on trade, and then moved right back near the highs of the day after China said it was increasing its tariffs on the U.S. to 84%.
...
“Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation,” said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research.

Shortly thereafter Trump had to pull back (archived):

The economic turmoil, particularly a rapid rise in government bond yields, caused Mr. Trump to blink on Wednesday afternoon and pause his “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for the next 90 days, according to four people with direct knowledge of the president’s decision.

Trump's unsteadiness on tariffs increased the uncertainty of economic decisions. Uncertainty is a poison, suppressing real economic activities.

The Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis produces hundreds of economic statistics. It includes several which are measuring uncertainty:

bigger

That FRED graph only included February. The doubt about Trump's economic policies had pushed it that high. The consequences of his tariff games were not yet visible.

Here is the current FRED overview graph of economic uncertainty. The index has reached a new record high:

Cont. reading: Trump Caves Again Over Tariffs - Uncertainty Increases

Palestine Open Thread 2025-151

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-150

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-149

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Jun 30 - NYT - Guessing About Iran With 'Experts' Who Lack Knowledge Of It
  Related:
  - US/Israel Versus Iran - Round One - William Schryver
  - Israel, the US and Iran: the war has only just begun - Thomas Fazi
  - Iran struck five Israeli military bases during 12-day war - Telegraph
  - How Israel inadvertently reawakened Iranian nationalism (archived) - FT

• Jul 1 - Ukraine Puts Neo-Nazi In Charge Of Government Institution
  Related:
  - Unveiling the Strength of the [Azov] 3rd Army Corps - Military Land
  - Ukraine : des centaines de soldats arborent des symboles néo nazis dans cette unité d'élite (video) - Le Monde
  - Don’t believe the conventional wisdom. Ukraine can still lose. (archived) - The Onion Washington Post

• Jul 2 - Attacks On Russia Related Ships Smell Of British / Ukrainian Cooperation
  Related:
  - A Forceful Russian Response to NATO Recklessness - Ron Unz / Unz Review
  - Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources - SCMP

• Jul 4 - CIA: Our Trump-Russiagate Claims Were Corrupt, Our Claims On Iran Are ...
  Related:
  - Old News About Russiagate Being Treated Like “a Bombshell” - Sonar21
  - Godfathers of SAVAK Torture Regime Gaslight World to Further Regime Change War in Iran - Jeff Kaye / Hidden Histories
  Under the Shah of Iran, the CIA & Mossad shaped SAVAK into a torture & killing machine. One of its torture victims was current Iran Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-149

CIA: Our Trump-Russiagate Claims Were Corrupt, Our Claims On Iran Are ...

The CIA has published a 'tradecraft review' of the 2016 'Intelligence Community Assessment' which had claimed that Russia had interfered in the 2016 presidential election.

The review found what had been obvious to anyone. The 2016 assessment had not followed the normal process for such papers but had based its conclusions on no or insignificant evidence.

Or, as the NY Post headlines: Obama’s Trump-Russia collusion report was corrupt from start

A bombshell new CIA review of the Obama administration’s spy agencies’ assessment that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election to help Donald Trump was deliberately corrupted by then-CIA Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, who were “excessively involved” in its drafting, and rushed its completion in a “chaotic,” “atypical” and “markedly unconventional” process that raised questions of a “potential political motive.”

Further, Brennan’s decision to include the discredited Steele dossier, over the objections of the CIA’s most senior Russia experts, “undermined the credibility” of the assessment.

At that time the ICE was leaked to various media outlets. It was finally published shortly before Trump's first inauguration.

As I wrote at that time:

Up to today there is no public evidence that Russia hacked the Democratic National Council and/or released DNC material to Wikileaks. After today's new intelligence report (pdf) there is still no such evidence. ... There are rather wild assertions and a lot of conjecture but zero facts that could be accepted as proof.

When I wrote the above on January 6 2017 I tried to set it the story into the bigger picture:

Cont. reading: CIA: Our Trump-Russiagate Claims Were Corrupt, Our Claims On Iran Are ...

Palestine Open Thread 2025-148

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...