Palestine Open Thread 2025-103

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-102

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-101

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• May 5 - Yemen - They Defeated The Saudis, Then Biden, Now Trump
• May 7 - Yemen - U.S. Concedes Maritime Defeat
  Related:
  - MI5’s Fake Terror Plots 19 - Craig Murray
  - Trump Interview Puts Iran Negotiations in Jeopardy - Ted Snider / AntiWar
  - Exclusive — Steve Witkoff Ahead of Round 4 of Talks: Iran Has Agreed ‘They Don’t Want’ Nuclear Weapon - Breitbart

• May 6 - Germany - Merz Fails To Become Chancellor In Shocking First-Round Vote
  Related:
  - BREAKING: New Merz government orders the pushback of all illegal migrants - Eugyppius
  - How the Establishment Is Domesticating Populism - Thomas Fazi / Compact
  - Romania’s elites are riding the populist tiger - Aris Roussinos / Unherd
  - The Road Right - Wolfgang Streeck / New Left Review

• May 8 - Ukraine - Rada Blocks Detail Agreements Of Mineral Deal
  Related:
  - Vance says Russia ‘asking for too much’ to end war with Ukraine - Politico
  - Hardening lines signal Ukraine peace process collapse - Asia Times
  - Trump’s peacemaking was always doomed - Thomas Fazi / Unherd
  - Trump Still Does Not Understand What Russia Wants and Demands - Sonar21
  
  - Ukraine and allies demand 30-day ceasefire; Putin wants talks first (archived) - Washington Post
  - Putin says Russia is 'committed' to restart talks with Kyiv, suggests May 15 start - NBCnews
  - France, Germany, Poland, UK and Ukraine issue statement on need for ceasefire - Pravda.ua

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE - 22:57 UTC · May 9, 2025

> Macron, Merz, Starmer, and Tusk were supposed to discuss peace in Kiev. Instead, they are blurting out threats against Russia. Either a truce for the respite of Banderite hordes or new sanctions. You think that’s smart, eh? Shove these peace plans up your pangender arses! <

• May 9 - Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests
  Related:
  - Is Donald Trump Putting Israel in the Dog House? - Sonar21
  - Karma Arriving? Times of Israel Frets Over Trump Abandonment With Houthis and Perhaps Even Iran - Naked Capitalism
  - Netanyahu's Israel Cannot Provide Trump With Any Wins He Can Promote Back Home (archived) - Haaretz

• May 9 - Victory Day
  Related:
  - VICTORY DAY 80 - Patrick Armstrong
  - The Moscow Victory Day Military Parade, 9 May 2025 - Gilbert Doctorow
  - Travel Notes, Installment Five: Miscellany - Gilbert Doctorow
  - U.S., Russia In Quiet Talks to Bring Russian Gas Back to Europe - OilPrice

• May 10 - Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan
  Related:
  - Normality returns as nuclear-armed neighbours step back from the brink - Dawn
  - Vance called Indian prime minister to encourage ceasefire talks after receiving alarming intelligence - CNN
  - Reluctant at First, Trump Officials Intervened in South Asia as Nuclear Fears Grew (archived) - NY Times
  - China’s J-10 ‘Dragon’ shows teeth in India-Pakistan combat debut (archived) - FT
  - Military operation in Pakistan reveals weaknesses of India's air force - Le Monde

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-101

Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan

Despite plenty of attempts to do better, the Trump administration had so far failed to achieve any foreign policy victory.

The ceasefire in Gaza which Trump imposed in January was soon sabotaged by the radicals in Netanyahoo's cabinet. The negotiations about peace in Ukraine are stuck around a yet be agreed upon ceasefire which does not solve the root problem. The war on Yemen, on Israel's behalf, was lost militarily. Iran, despite threats, has not moved on inch from its insistence on nuclear sovereignty. The tariff rage waged against China and everyone else is threatening to derail the U.S. economy.

All this makes today's win a special moment.

President Trump announced:

After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ...

Details followed immediately:

Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio - 12:07 UTC · May 10, 2025

Over the past 48 hours, @VP Vance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik.

I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.

We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.

Trump and his cabinet have thus achieved a notable and laudable victory. U.S. mediation has helped to deescalated a crises in South Asia that had threatened to turn into a full fledged (nuclear) war.

On Tuesday, April 22 2025, 26 people were killed when gunman opened fire on tourists in the Indian-occupied Kashmir:

A group of tourists were visiting a popular area — a meadow in mountainous Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley, known as “mini-Switzerland,” outside the town of Pahalgam — when militants emerged from a nearby forest and opened fire. Police said 25 Indians and one Nepalese citizen were killed. Since the group was in an area only accessible by foot or horseback, getting the injured to the nearest hospital was difficult, one witness told The Washington Post.

Indian media outlets attributed the attack to the Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group banned by New Delhi in 2023 as a terrorist organization, but there was no verifiable claim of responsibility.

Indian claims that the TRF has support from Pakistan. In consequence it announced sharp retaliatory measures, targeting trade and the critical Simla water agreement. It ordered to cut the Indus water lifeline into Pakistan.

Craig Murray explains why this was and is an existential threat to that country:

Cont. reading: Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan

Victory Day

Victory day:

Victory Day is a holiday that commemorates the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in 1945. It was first inaugurated in the 15 republics of the Soviet Union following the signing of the German Instrument of Surrender late in the evening on 8 May 1945 (9 May Moscow Time). The Soviet government announced the victory early on 9 May after the signing ceremony in Berlin.

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A live feed of the Victory Day parade 2025 in Moscow can be watched here.

Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests

Over the last weeks U.S. President Donald Trump has broken links between U.S. foreign policy issues in the Middle East and considerations for Israel's interest.

Last month the prime minister of the 'Zionist entity' Benjamin Mileikowsky Netanyahoo visited Washington DC to push Trump towards bombing Iran's nuclear installations. Trump instead announced new talks with Iran. Netanyahoo's attempt had failed:

U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month with a gamble on immediately opening negotiations with Iran.
...
The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Next came the Trump pivot on Yemen about which Netanyahoo had not been informed:

Barak Ravid, a political analyst for the Zionist media outlet ‘Walla’, said that Trump's agreement with Yemen has severely constrained Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Ron Dermer, a close advisor to Netanyahu.

Pointing out that Trump has bypassed the Zionist regime by reaching an agreement on a ceasefire with Yemen's Ansarallah, he stated it seems that Israel's ability to influence the US-Iran negotiations to reach a new nuclear agreement has so far been very restricted.

The senior Israeli official said that he knew nothing about Trump's decision. “Trump surprised us," he added.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House that Yemen's Ansarullah announced that they will no longer fight against the United States, and the United States will also stop its attacks on Yemen.

Today we learn that the U.S. is willing to help Saudi Arabia with a civil nuclear program without requiring Saudi normalization with Israel:

Cont. reading: Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests

Palestine Open Thread 2025-100

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-099

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-098

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Ukraine - Rada Blocks Detail Agreements Of Mineral Deal

The 'mineral deal' between the Trump administration and Ukraine continues to be a contentious issue.

The deal, which was signed last week, consists of (at least) three documents only one of which, the framework agreement, was made public:

The Ukrainian government claims that only the first part has been signed. The other two will follow only after the Ukrainian parliament, the Rada, has ratified the main one. Several 'western' media have contradicted that claim. All three parts of the agreement were signed. But the Ukrainian government is keeping the details of the second and third part secret because the conditions imposed by them are extremely bad for Ukraine.

As Strana reported (machine translation):

[T]he opposition already accuses the authorities of concealing the main points about the deal. The fact is that the agreement on the creation of the fund, signed last week and already made public, is being submitted for ratification, and there are very few specifics in it. This is essentially a framework agreement. For all the main points in the text of the agreement, there are references to another document - the Limited Partnership Agreement. There is also a third document - the Foundation's charter.

A number of deputies claim that all three documents have actually been signed (or agreed upon). But they showed only one-the least important and most abstract of them, from which it is not even clear what the Foundation will do in general.

The government denies this, saying that only one document has been signed, and the rest will still be discussed.

Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, is supposed to ratify the framework agreement today. It will likely do so but with a surprise.

Yesterday the Rada Committee for Foreign Policy passed the relevant language but added an amendment to it (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukraine - Rada Blocks Detail Agreements Of Mineral Deal