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June 16, 2024

Some Links And An Open Thread 2024-146

From a recent email exchange with an MD:

Me: "How long will it take for me to get back into the saddle?"
MD: "Recovery time is often calculated as one month per decade of life."
Me: "Sigh!"

A few days ago a MoA reader I had not known of contacted me and offered to help. He is living in the same city as I do. I had thought that I would be able to do small stuff, like shopping, as soon as I was back home. Wrong - I didn't even make it half way :-(.

So yesterday Nico came by and did some grocery shopping for me.  My fridge now filled! Great! Thanks!

---

The issue below deserves a serious write up. Alas, I am currently not up to it. It was an incredibly irresponsible campaign and some people likely died over it.

Pentagon ran secret anti-vax campaign to undermine China during pandemic - Reuters
The U.S. military launched a clandestine program amid the COVID crisis to discredit China’s Sinovac inoculation – payback for Beijing’s efforts to blame Washington for the pandemic. One target: the Filipino public. Health experts say the gambit was indefensible and put innocent lives at risk.

First thought: This wasn't a war. So why the f*** was the Pentagon at all involved in any such stuff?

Cont. reading: Some Links And An Open Thread 2024-146

Posted by b at 9:46 UTC | Comments (113)

June 15, 2024

Putin's Full Speech: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions

Last year the Canadian intelligence analyst Patrick Armstrong published this sound advice:

“LISTEN TO WHAT HE’S SAYING”

I’m fond of quoting the Duke of Wellington on intelligence:

All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavour to find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called ‘guessing what was at the other side of the hill.’

Find out what you don’t know by what you do“. It’s not easy, it’s not necessarily pleasant but it’s what you have to do in order to minimise your surprise when whatever it is actually comes over the hill at you.

Here’s former British Ambassador to Russia Laurie Bristow saying the same thing:

My advice to all young diplomats and analysts [is that] if you want to understand Mr Putin’s foreign policy, listen to what he’s saying. You won’t like it, but you need to understand it, you need to listen to it. The place to start is the Munich speech in 2007.

Listen to what he says”. It’s quite easy to. Putin has said a lot and most of it appears on the Presidential website in English as well as the original Russian. Never read what the Western reporters say he says – they almost always distort it – read the original. I’m sure that both Wellington and Bristow would agree.

And that’s what intelligence is all about. Try and understand how the other guy sees things.

Every few years Putin comes out with a speech or memorandum which explains - past, presence and future -  and argues for the position at large Russia is taking.

People who read these speeches will understand Russia. People who don't won't.

The later will miss the facts and come to false conclusions. Acting upon those they will weaken their own positions.

One can avoid doing so by reading Putin's latest speech held yesterday at the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. It is quite long but has to be so as it necessarily touches on everything. It includes a kind of peace offer for Ukraine: Hand over the provinces Russia has recognized at its own and gain peace. It was and is not expected that the 'West' will move towards that direction. In consequence the aims of the war will have to change.

With nearly 10,000 words the speech is very long. No summarization will do it justice. I therefore urge you to read it in full.

The English language version was published in full by Sputnik. The authoritative official translation, which will soon appear on the Kremlin website, is not yet complete. As access to both sides may be limited a full copy of the speech is attached below.

What follows is a full reproduction of the English language version Sputnik put out.

Putin's Full Speech at Foreign Ministry: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions - Friday, June 15 2024

/* BEGIN OF PUTIN SPEECH */

Cont. reading: Putin's Full Speech: BRICS, NATO Expansion and Ukraine Peace Talk Conditions

Posted by b at 4:39 UTC | Comments (296)

June 12, 2024

Notice Of Absence - Update

Please check here for previous notes of absence and updates.

In the end it has turned out to be a one-and-done procedure and I am happy to say that it is now done with:

  • The good news: I am likely to recover in full with better health than I have previously had.
  • The not-so-good news: It will take much longer to recuperate from this than I had expected.

The procedure I went through was a quite extended variant of what WebMD calls a Aortobifemoral Bypass.

When my chest was opened up the conditions found in place were worse (..."they always are"...1) than expected. They required bypass procedures more extensive (in size), but less delicate (in number of new shunt connections), than anticipated.

Everything went more or less smooth and, after some seven hours of diligent work, the professors and MDs were satisfied (..."they always are"...) with the job they had done on me.

The physically drain the (larger than expected) procedure took on me has been much stronger (... "it always is" ...) than I had anticipated. The intellectual drain, in consequence of the physical one, was even worse. My current task is to rebuild both strengths. This will take months.

Cont. reading: Notice Of Absence - Update

Posted by b at 4:08 UTC | Comments (200)

May 23, 2024

Notice Of Absence - Update: Change of Plans

Update (May 25, 9:36 UTC)

After discussions involving a dozen MDs, two professors (and me) it was decided to change the relevant department and plans.

This now looks likely to be a small to medium size - but more bloody than expected - intervention coming only next Thursday with a second one following a few weeks later. Plans may change again though if and when appropriate. I for now expect to be back at home around June 6 or so.

In-between being cut up and sewn together I will likely have access to the net. I may therefore pop up here and there and will reopen comments if and when I feel able to at least somewhat police them.

Thank you for your patience.

---

Old post to follow:

For medical reasons your host will be offline from Thursday to Sunday.

I have closed the comments to prevent vandalism while I am away.

I hope to be back at full capacity on Monday, May 27th. Should the procedure be extended, which is a possibility, I will likely be back on Wednesday, May 29.

See you soon ...

Posted by b at 7:26 UTC | Comments (0)

May 22, 2024

Ukraine: 'Shot Down' Drones Hit Targets

Reports of damage caused by Russian drones in Ukraine are regularly followed by reports which claim that all drones were shot down.

Via Strana (machine translations):

Russians hit Konotop and Shostka power facilities in Sumy region

08:22, today

Last night, Russian troops launched an air strike on the energy facilities of Konotop and Shostka in the Sumy region.

This is reported by the Sumy OVA. "The enemy launched an air strike, using a Shahed-type UAV, on the energy facilities of the cities of Shostka and Konotop," the report says.

Currently, work is underway to restore power supply, which was cut off due to an enemy strike.

Also in the OVA reported that over the Sumy region this night destroyed 7 enemy UAVs of the type "Shahed".

Ukrenergo reported that Sumy and the surrounding areas remain without electricity after the night attack of "Shahids".

---

Air forces destroyed all 24 Shaheds that attacked Ukraine

09:00, today

On the night of Wednesday, May 22, Russia attacked Ukraine with 24 strike UAVs of the Shahed-131/136 type. This is reported by the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to shoot down all 24 Shaheds," the report says.
Strike UAVs were destroyed in the Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, Sumy and Odessa regions.

Recall that at night, Russian troops launched an air strike on the energy facilities of Konotop and Shostka in the Sumy region.
Sumy and surrounding areas remain without electricity after the night attack of "Shahids".

I will concede that debris of a shot down drone can still cause damage. But when the 'debris' of a 'shot down' drone is causing the intended damage when it hits its target was it really shot down?

Who do they think they are kidding with this?

Posted by b at 9:26 UTC | Comments (176)

May 21, 2024

A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By 'Sources'

Yesterday The Economist published about an alleged Russian plan to partially encircle Kharkiv:

Ukraine’s desperate struggle to defend Kharkiv (archived)

I find that this is unlikely to ever have been a Russian plan:

Retrieved military plans, details of which were shared with The Economist, suggest the Russians were probing to see if they could partially encircle Kharkiv and put pressure on the Ukrainian formations to the east of the Pechenihy reservoir. The operation was supposedly planned for May 15th-16th but was brought forward by nearly a week for unknown reasons.

According to the plans, the Russians had identified two axes of attack on either side of the reservoir. The push on the western axis was intended, over 72 hours, to bring Russian troops to within artillery range of Kharkiv city at the village of Borshchova. They were stopped by a rapidly redeployed grouping from the elite 92nd Brigade, which pushed them back a full 10km from their initial goal.
...
On the Vovchansk axis, further east, the Russian plan had been to fight past Anna’s father’s house on the reservoir, right down to the town of Pechenihy. The Russians initially made quick work of this operation, sweeping through an area that should have been prepared with minefields and serious engineering fortifications but wasn’t.

The piece includes this not very helpful map:

I have marked the LiveUAmap map of the Russian Kharkiv incursion with arrows from the border to the villages named in the Economist piece:

Cont. reading: A Kharkiv Encirclement As Dreamed Up By 'Sources'

Posted by b at 11:07 UTC | Comments (297)

May 20, 2024

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-145

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Ukraine.

The Economist wants us to know that Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential term expires on May 20th.

I am sure that Russia will act accordingly.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 16:11 UTC | Comments (173)

ICC Prosecutor Asks For Arrest Warrants For Netanyahoo, Gallant And Others

Today the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim A.A. Khan KC, has filed applications for warrants of arrest before a pre-trial chamber of the court.

These concern both sides of the conflict in Palestine:

On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Yahya SINWAR (Head of the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”) in the Gaza Strip), Mohammed Diab Ibrahim AL-MASRI, more commonly known as DEIF (Commander-in-Chief of the military wing of Hamas, known as the Al-Qassam Brigades), and Ismail HANIYEH (Head of Hamas Political Bureau) bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of Israel and the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 7 October 2023: 
...

All three persons are already under threat of assassination by Israel. They do not travel and stay out of the public. Even if arrest warrants are granted against them they are unlikely to be concerned by that.

On the other side of the conflict that may well be a different issue:

On the basis of evidence collected and examined by my Office, I have reasonable grounds to believe that Benjamin NETANYAHU, the Prime Minister of Israel, and Yoav GALLANT, the Minister of Defence of Israel, bear criminal responsibility for  the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 8 October 2023:

  • Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;
  • Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
  • Wilful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
  • Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);
  • Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;
  • Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);
  • Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).

Should the arrest warrants against Netanyahoo and Galant be granted they will have to end all travel to or through those many countries which are member states of the Rome statute. (The U.S., Israel, Russia and Sudan have signed the Rome statute but did not become member states.)

Member states are under obligation to fulfill arrest warrants should the ICC prosecutor have valid ones. There is also a stigma coming with the warrants that will prevent pro-Zionist politicians from Europe and elsewhere from meeting with Netanyahoo or other involved persons.

Posted by b at 13:06 UTC | Comments (218)

President And FM Of Iran Killed in Apparent Helicopter Accident

You all will have heard by now that the President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi as well as its Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian have died in what looks like a helicopter accident:

Raisi was traveling in a US-made Bell 212. Low visibility and the impassibility of the area made search operations difficult, IRNA wrote.

Rescue teams finally managed to locate the crash site on Monday morning with the help of Turkish surveillance drones.

The wreckage was discovered in a wooded area on a mountain slope. The aircraft was severely damaged and charred, and there were no signs of survivors, the Iranian Red Crescent Society said.

Iran will have acquired the Bell 212 before the 1978-79 revolution. While at least 45 years old it had never had access to manufacturer level maintenance or regular replacement parts. It is likely that the helicopter was not equipped for pure instrument flights but required visibility to navigate.

The weather over the mountain range the helicopter was crossing was bad with video from the scene showing heavy fog.

Under such circumstances the flight should not have taken place. But with very important guests on board, who run on a tight schedule, the pilots may have felt a need to fly despite unfavorable weather condition.

I therefore see nothing that would suggest a conspiracy or foreign influence in the incident.

Raisi was on the conservative, and thereby more social, side of Iranian politics. Within the current framework in Iran his successor will likely by from the same political direction.

Iran's Supreme Leader has already announced new elections:

Khamenei.ir @khamenei_ir - 10:05 UTC · May 20, 2024

In accordance with Article 131 of the Constitution, Vice-President Mr. Mokhber will be the head of the Executive Branch & is obliged to cooperate with the heads of the Legislative & Judiciary Branches in facilitating the election of a new president within a maximum of 50 days.

There will be a bit of a rush to decide which personalities will be allowed as candidates for the next presidency.

Election campaigns in Iran are restricted to short periods. Voter turnout is usually low. While there might be surprises when a winner comes up the political system in Iran, established after the revolution, is quite stable and is likely to prevail.

Posted by b at 11:05 UTC | Comments (251)

May 19, 2024

Palestine Open Thread 2024-144

Only for news & views directly related to the war in Palestine.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 11:54 UTC | Comments (252)