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Trump Leaves China With Little In Hand
President Trump’s visit to China has ended.
I had predicted that there would be no tangible outcome from that trip:
Trump is coming to Beijing with his cap in his hand. He, as usual, will try to bluff a way to ‘victory’. He will proceed as if the U.S. were in a great position. The Chinese will be polite, but won’t have any of it.
There have been little preparations for the trip. The sherpas did not convene beforehand to straighten out serious issues between the countries. There are no big contracts or treaties to sign.
One hope had been to sell some 500 Boeing jets to several Chinese airlines. Returning from the trip Trump has claimed that China would buy 200 airplanes. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to confirm that. Boeing’s stock price dropped.
Some 20 company bosses had joined Trump on the trip. But there seem to have been no plans or tasks for any of them. No deals were made, no contracts were signed.
Trump offered to lift the U.S. blockade on the sales of some older NVIDIA AI chips to China. China declined as it now makes its own chips with similar characteristics.
The Chinese side spoke of a “new positioning” and a “constructive strategic stability” as major outcomes of the talks.
The “new positioning” is seeing the U.S. and China as equals with China being objectively in a better position.
The “constructive strategic stability” could be interpreted as an advise to the U.S. to shut up and stay quiet while China is doing its thing:
President Xi clearly pointed out that “constructive strategic stability” means positive stability with cooperation as the mainstay, healthy stability with competition within proper limits, constant stability with manageable differences, and lasting stability with expectable peace. These “four stabilities” paint a clear and feasible blueprint for China-US relations. It is not a stopgap measure, but a long-term approach. It is not a zero-sum game, but a mutual benefit and win-win cooperation. The “four stabilities” lead strategic stability with a constructive attitude and safeguard long-term development through strategic stability, fully demonstrating that China-US relations are a relationship between major powers fully capable of helping each other succeed and prospering together.
While Trump was in China some 30 Chinese ships moved through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the Iranian authorities. Given that Trump was in China the U.S. blockaders in the Arab Sea did not dare to make attempts to stop those ships. This has thus has set a precedence which will allow continues Chinese shipping.
For China the Strait is open.
Iran Open Thread 2026-099
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Ukraine Open Thread 2026-098
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Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-097
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
War On Iran: – U.S. Experiencing Price Increases
The stalemate in the War of Iran is characterized by bets on each side that the enemy side will soon incur unsustainable economic problems.
After several wars and decades of sanctions Iran is well versed in how to sustain under economic pressure. Its people and government know of the larger picture. Price fluctuations are inconveniences but do not change the will of the people.
The U.S. on the other side is rather fragile. Even only mildly unconformable circumstances will lead to political pressure. One percent more or less of inflation will change the election chances for this or that party.
The consequences of the blockade of Hormuz are starting to come in:
US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war – BBC
US prices rose in April at their fastest rate since May 2023 as the impact of the war in Iran was increasingly felt by consumers.
A jump in the cost of gasoline and groceries pushed the consumer price index (CPI), showing the rate prices rose by in the past 12 months, to 3.8%.
It is the highest level since inflation hit 4% three years ago.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said almost half of the rise was driven by surging energy costs, while housing and food costs also contributed.
Consumer inflation can be a short term trend. More worrying than the rise in the CPI is the increase of input prices as reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI):
Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022 – CNBC
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – U.S. Experiencing Price Increases
Trump Goes To China
This week U.S. President Donald Trump is going to China.
His larger plan had been to take Venezuela, Iran and their oil before pressing China, via tariffs and energy restrictions, to concede to U.S. hegemony.
That plan has failed. Trump has lost two wars. His tariff schemes ended in retreat after China restricted the export of its rare earth products. His war on Iran has is one big failure.
Trump is coming to Beijing with his cap in his hand. He, as usual, will try to bluff a way to ‘victory’. He will proceed as if the U.S. were in a great position. The Chinese will be polite, but won’t have any of it.
There have been little preparations for the trip. The sherpas did not convene beforehand to straighten out serious issues between the countries. There are no big contracts or treaties to sign.
Trump will want to sell soybeans and Boeing airplanes. The Chinese are only mildly interested in any such deals. They may sign some contracts to give Trump something to boast about. But they will hedge their deals as the U.S. is known to be a unreliable partner.
Trump will want support for making peace (on U.S. conditions) with Iran. There will be some solemn and wise responses to that.
It is in Chinese interest to see the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East. Any U.S. airplane, ship, gun and soldier in the Middle East is one less to worry about in east Asia. Any munition fired against Iran can not be used against China.
China does not want Iran to lose the war. It will support it, as it already does, wherever needed.
Trump is hauling a bunch of money men with him. A big hope for U.S. financial interest is to open the Chinese (consumer) markets for their virtual ‘products’. But, as President Xi has said, ‘houses are for living’. Communist ideology does not allow for such crap.
A major point of interest on the Chinese side is Taiwan. Beijing wants to finally end the Chinese civil war and for that Taiwan must rejoin the country. U.S. weapon sales to Taiwan and its political agitation are a hindrance to that.
But Taiwan is a big issue in Congress. Some minor verbal commitments on not furthering Taiwan independence may be all Trump can give.
The U.S. wants China to sign on to some rumored about Board of Trade. The U.S. is trying to install such bi-lateral forums to replace the UN, WTO and other international organizations. Like the Board of Peace in Palestine, the Board of Trade wont solve any issues. But as it will not cost China anything to join it will agree to it to keep Trump happy.
To keep Trump happy may well be the sole reason why China has agreed to the meeting.
War On Iran: – Saudis Blame Israel – Neocon Grandee Concedes Defeat
Two remarkable pieces appeared during the last days. They are related to each other as both authors are seasoned right-wing strategist who were deeply involved with the George W. Bush administration and its war on Iraq.
The first piece is by Turki Al-Faisal:
He is a grandson of Saudi Arabia’s founder King Abdulaziz and son of King Faisal. He is chairman of the King Faisal Foundation’s Center for Research and Islamic Studies.
From 1979 to 2001, Prince Turki was director general of Al Mukhabarat Al ‘Ammah, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency, resigning from the position on 1 September 2001, ten days before the September 11 attacks in which 15 Saudi nationals hijacked commercial American airliners.
Prince Turki subsequently served as ambassador to the Court of St. James’s and the United States.
In an op-ed published on Saturday in the semi-official Arab News Faisal reveals the major conspiracy behind the U.S. war on Iran.
While the Saudis are miffed by Iran, they do acknowledge that it is not the real culprit who has caused the mess the whole Gulf region is now in:
When Iran and others tried to drag the Kingdom into the furnace of destruction, our leadership chose to endure the pains caused by a neighbor in order to protect the lives and property of its citizens. Had the Kingdom wanted, and it is capable of doing so, to respond in kind to Iran by destroying Iranian facilities and interests, the outcome could have been the destruction of Saudi oil facilities and desalination plants along the Arabian Gulf coast, and even deep inside the Kingdom.
Had the Israeli plan to ignite war between us and Iran succeeded, the region would have been plunged into ruin and destruction. Thousands of our sons and daughters would have been lost in a battle in which we had no stake. Israel would have succeeded in imposing its will on the region and remained the only actor in our surroundings.
Through the wisdom and foresight of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kingdom avoided the horrors of war and its devastating repercussions. Indeed, together with Pakistan, it is now extinguishing the fire of fighting, helping prevent escalation, and giving advocates of peace hope that they can feel reassured about the lives of their loved ones and the safety of their interests.
The op-ed debunks all the rumors spread by Zionist propagandists who had claimed that the Saudis were urging for a widening of the war.
Since Chinese moderation three years ago has led to political agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia there has been no big confrontation between those countries. Despite the war Saudi Arabia is welcoming Iranian pilgrims to the Hajj. While Iran has hit U.S. installations in Saudi Arabia it has refrained from attacking major Saudi oil interest. In consequence Saudi Aramco, the state owned oil company, is making record profits.
The Saudi position is one of many signs that the U.S. has lost its hegemonic role in the Gulf.
A second op-ed, by arch-neoconservative Robert Kagan in the pro-war Atlantic, confirms that take. Kagan, who had pushed the Bush/Cheney administration towards its war on Iran is conceding that the U.S. has lost its war on Iran:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Saudis Blame Israel – Neocon Grandee Concedes Defeat
Iran Open Thread 2026-096
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Ukraine Open Thread 2026-095
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-094
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-094
War On Iran: – Short takes …
Some short takes …
1. On Wednesday President Trump gave Iran 48 hours to respond to some one page doodle of U.S. wishes for a temporary peace agreement. So far Iran has ignored it. I believe is right to do so. There is no hope yet that the U.S. will agree to even the smallest of Iranian demands, the lifting of sanctions, in exchange for the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
2. Despite the so called ceasefire the U.S. is attacking empty and loaded Iranian tankers. This is an attempt to diminish Iran’s capability to store oil. It is also causing environmental damage.
Iran must prevent a “ceasefire with Israeli characteristics” during which the U.S. continues to attack while Iran is sitting still.
Iran will need to escalate to achieve some movement with regards to point 1 and 2.
During the recent fight with three U.S. destroyers Iran had refrained from using its medium and long range anti-ship missiles (Chinese as well as newer Iranian ones). It may well be time to put these into action.
War On Iran: – Destroyer Battle – Iran Can Sustain – Losers Hold Cards
The current situation around the Strait of Hormuz is vague. We currently have what Chas Freeman calls (vid) a “ceasefire with Israeli characteristics”. Both sides continue to fight but try to avoid a larger escalation.
Yesterday the U.S. stopped an empty Iranian tanker coming from the Indian Ocean which was heading towards an Iranian port. Iran responded by attacking three U.S. destroyer which seem to have intended to pass, east to west, through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.
The destroyers were driven off under intense Iranian fire:
American officials described the Iranian onslaught on three destroyers as fiercer and more sustained than a separate Iranian barrage that two of the warships faced only days earlier.
The vessels came under an intense Iranian assault as swarms of Iranian fast-attack boats maneuvered close enough that American warships opened fire to keep them at bay, U.S. officials told CBS News under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Over several hours, the American warships and supporting aircraft mounted a layered defense, firing their five-inch naval guns and their close-in weapon systems known as CIWS, officials said. Small-caliber gun teams on deck also engaged the attacking boats. American Apache helicopters fired Hellfire missiles, and .50-caliber machine guns were fired from the decks of the ships, as additional aircraft provided support overhead.
Iranian forces also launched drones and missiles during the confrontation, the officials said. As of publication, no casualties or damage to the ships was reported.
(If you believe that last sentence please check out my offer of bridges for sale.)
The Iranian navy was clearly close enough to the destroyers to sink them. That it did not do so might well be a sign that it currently does not want to escalate.
After the attempt to seize Iran’s Uranium had failed with more than ten airplanes and helicopters lost in desert and after the failure of “Project Freedom” earlier this week this was the third tactical military operation attempt by the U.S. in which the Iranian side prevailed.
It confirms the recent ‘leaked’ assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that Iran can sustain this conflict (archived) and has sufficient reserves for many months, if not years, of continuous fighting:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Destroyer Battle – Iran Can Sustain – Losers Hold Cards
War On Iran: – Saudis Pulled Break On Trump’s Escalation
Yesterday President Trump abandoned his laughable “Project Freedom” just five hours after his two lieutenants, Warcrime Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had been sent out to promote it:
The president had pulled the rug out from underneath his top team. Even his closest confidants could not understand why.
“So f—–g embarrassing,” a source close to the president said shortly after the announcement.
The decision represented another abrupt about-turn by the president, who is becoming desperate to find a way out of the conflict that has dragged on well beyond the nation’s expectations. No amount of spin could conceal an abject failure on the high seas.
The reason for Trump’s retreat, claim NBC sources, were a revolt by Arab Gulf states:
President Donald Trump’s abrupt reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after a key Gulf ally suspended the U.S. military’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out the operation, according to two U.S. officials.
Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing “Project Freedom” on social media Sunday afternoon, the officials said, angering leadership in Saudi Arabia. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
Other close Gulf allies were also caught off guard; the president spoke with leaders in Qatar after the effort had already begun.
Saudi Arabia was not the only one to pull the brake:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Saudis Pulled Break On Trump’s Escalation
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-093
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Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-092
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
War On Iran: – Trump Discards “Project Freedom” – Another Oil Market ‘Peace’ Scam – Loss In Trust Of U.S. Protection
Each day it is getting harder to cover the current war on Iran. Official U.S. comments and paths of actions are changing by the hour without any consistency.
Operation “Project Freedom”, i.e. U.S. protection for ships leaving the Persian Gulf, was announced on Sunday. It had failed by Monday. It was promoted (vid) by Warcrime Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday only to be, just five hour later, discarded by President Trump.
The whole point of the ‘Project’ may have been to get some negotiating advantage. After Iran countered the scheme it was immediately discarded.
Today’s major news so far was a new oil market scam launched by the White House.
Axios reporter Barak Ravid, an Israeli intelligence and White House asset who had announced the last seven of zero peace deals with Iran, promoted another one:
The White House believes it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.
The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
It is of course laughable to think that Iran would agree to any non-binding one page doodle from the White House. Still – oil futures dropped as soon as the markets opened.
The ‘news’ was obviously another attempt by White House insiders to fleece the markets:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Trump Discards “Project Freedom” – Another Oil Market ‘Peace’ Scam – Loss In Trust Of U.S. Protection
War On Iran: – “Project Freedom” A One-Off Stunt – Tightening UAE Blockade – China Counters U.S. Sanctions
On Sunday night at around 20:35 UTC President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. Navy would help ships in the Persian Gulf to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Sal Mercogliano, who runs the What’s Going on With Shipping channel, says that around the same time two U.S. flagged commercial ships, both part of the U.S. transport reserve, were leaving the Gulf and have since reached the Arabian Sea. The shipping company Mersk confirmed that one of its ships has left the Persian Gulf.
Mercogliano explains that the U.S. most likely put Navy reserve officer onto those ships. They were equipped with secure communication equipment which allowed to coordinate the moves. On their way out of the Persian Gulf the two ship most likely hugged the Omani coast at the south side of the Gulf of Hormuz.
The U.S. additionally claimed that two of its destroyers had entered the Strait of Hormuz. Iran claims that it had warned off a U.S. military vessel by shooting at it. Neither of these claims has been confirmed.
The U.S. also claimed that it had destroyed 5 to 7 (sources vary) IRGC fast boats, likely by helicopter, implying that those were about to attack the ships the U.S. Navy protected. Iran refutes that and says that the U.S. attacked two small civilian cargo boats. (At any time there are hundreds of these in the Strait.)
The great “Project Freedom”, that Trump had announced, was supposed to allow for traffic to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But it now seem to have been a one-off special operation to get only two of some 900 stuck vessels out of the Persian Gulf.
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – “Project Freedom” A One-Off Stunt – Tightening UAE Blockade – China Counters U.S. Sanctions
War On Iran: – How Trump’s “Project Freedom” Has Failed
Yesterday, at 20:35 UTC, U.S. President Donald Trump seemed to announce U.S. military protection for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz:
.. For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these [neutral] Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.
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This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time.
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If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
A stark announcement. U.S. Central Command, the U.S. military in the region, added some splash to it:
U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.
Iran warned of any such move:
Major-General Ali Abdollahi, Commander of the Khatam Al Anbiya Central Military Command, has warned foreign navies against entering the Strait of Hormuz to escort commercial vessels, Iranian state media reported. He said any such presence could escalate tensions in the strategic waterway, through which a significant share of global oil supplies passes.
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The warning comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission, dubbed Project Freedom, to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Thus the U.S. mountain listened, labored and bore a mice (archived):
The new effort, which Trump dubbed “Project Freedom,” is a process through which countries, insurance companies and shipping organizations can coordinate moving traffic through the Strait, according to a senior U.S. official. It doesn’t currently involve U.S. Navy warships escorting vessels through the strait, the official said.
No sane owner, and no insurance company, will allow ships to sail through the Strait with U.S. ‘coordination’ while Iran opposes such moves.
Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi – 9:44 UTC · May 4, 2026
Iran has declared the area of control in the Strait of Hormuz as defined by the armed forces: from the south, the line between Mount Mobarak in Iran and southern Fujairah in the UAE; and from the west, the line between the end of Qeshm Island in Iran and Umm Al Quwain in the UAE.
biggerOne might speculate that Trump really meant to open the Strait and was pulled back by the Navy which is opposed to the bloody mess any attempt to open of the Strait by force would cause. It still did some testing.
During the last hour a U.S. Navy ship apparently tried to enter the Strait near Jask but was diverted after the Iranian military fired two missiles at it. CentCom seems to confirm the attack when it claims that no missile has hit.
Within a few hours the latest attempt by Donald Trump to somehow change the situation in the Strait has failed.
He is still left with three choices:
- Keep up the blockade of Iran (and thus Hormuz) while the global economy deteriorates further;
- Use again military force against Iran with the likely outcome being a worse situation;
- Declare victory and leave.
I suspect Trump will at least try step 2 before giving up and turning to 3.
Iran Open Thread 2026-091
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-090
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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