Moon of Alabama

March 14, 2025

Echoes Of The May 2 2014 Odessa Massacre

On May 4 2014 I wrote about the February coup aftermath in Ukraine:

Two days ago a mob, supported by the fascists Right Sektor, killed over 30 federalist Ukrainians in Odessa by pushing them from their camp into a building and then setting fire to it. Those who escaped the massacre, not the perpetrators, were rounded up by police. Today pro-federalism people besieged the police headquarter in Odessa until the police released those it had earlier arrested.
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The U.S. plan for Ukraine seems to be to bait Russia into an occupation. This would destroy EU-Russia relations, embolden NATO and help the U.S. to keep the EU as a secondary partner under its control. There would be lots of economic upsides for the U.S. in such a situation. Selling more arms and increasing energy market shares are only the starters.
There are two reasons to believe that this plan will fail:
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Without Russian intervention and without German support the U.S. campaign against Russia is unlikely to reach its secondary target of isolating Russia. The primary target, Sevastopol harbor in Crimea, was already lost when Russia reunified with the island.

What is left to do then for Washington is to create more chaos in Ukraine and to hope that somehow out of total chaos some new chance may arise to stick it to Russia. For lack of real direction that strategy is also unlikely to succeed.

I was unfortunately wrong with the last sentence though it took the U.S. eight more years to succeed.

But it is the first paragraph I what to refer to today. The current two most popular pieces on the website of Strana are echoing it (machine translation):

From the first story (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Echoes Of The May 2 2014 Odessa Massacre

Posted by b at 14:35 UTC | Comments (214)

March 13, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-052

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:28 UTC | Comments (73)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-051

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 14:28 UTC | Comments (456)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-050

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:27 UTC | Comments (154)

March 12, 2025

Trump Opts For More War With Russia

The Trump administration has decided to resume the provision of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine. It is thus aiming at escalating the conflict.

The outcome of yesterday's talk between a Ukrainian and a U.S. delegation Saudi Arabia was not completely in favor of the European/Ukrainian idea of a 30 day ceasefire restricted to air and sea attacks. But it opened the desired pathway to prolonging the war.

The U.S. asked the Ukrainians to accept a 30 day long ceasefire offer. This would of course only be implemented if the Russian side agrees to it. Meanwhile the U.S. resumes all war support for Ukraine. The outcome demonstrates weakness on the U.S. side:

According to the latest from Riyadh, Ukraine says it is ready for a 30 day cease fire. If this is what Washington “extracted” from the Ukrainians, it is operationally meaningless. With Russia on the brink of winning in Kursk and elsewhere, the Russians won’t accept any such deal. If it is a ruse to allow the US to resume arms shipments to Ukraine, knowing Russia will reject it, the so-called peace initiative is a dead letter.

'The ball is now in Russia's court' was the media slogan launched by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and obediently repeated by various European underlings.

But why would or should Russia agree to this when the idea seems to be to trap Russia:

Cont. reading: Trump Opts For More War With Russia

Posted by b at 16:39 UTC | Comments (456)

March 11, 2025

The Pipeline Raid Of Sudzha

Throughout the war in Ukraine natural gas was still pumped through the Brotherhood (Druzhba) pipeline system from Russia via Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia.

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At the beginning of the year the government of Ukraine decided to close the connection. It shut off the valves on Ukrainian ground. That event will be marked the end of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region of Russia.

The map shows the Ukrainian held ground in Russia as of January 1 2025. It includes the city of Sudzha and some 20 Russian hamlets and villages.

Situation on January 1 2025

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The Brotherhood pipeline system consists of five parallel tubes with a diameter of 1.4 meters (4'8"). These run roughly parallel to the 34k-004 road (H-07 in Ukraine) from Kursk southwest-wards passing north of Sudzah on towards Sumy in Ukraine.

The pipes are buried in the ground. Due to vegetation disturbances the buried pipelines are visible in satellite pictures.

Pipeline bundle (from upper right to lower left) near the exit point of the raid

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Sometime after January 1 the Russian command responsible for the area developed a plan to use the pipeline system to attack the Ukrainian enemy from behind.

Natural gas was drained from one of the pipes of the Brotherhood pipeline system. Oxygen was pumped into it. Some 15 kilometer (~10 miles) north-east of Sudzha, near Bol'shoye Soldatskoye, an access hole was cut into the pipeline. Soldiers were sent into the pipeline to reconnaissance it. But there was still some natural gas and too little oxygen in the pipeline. The first soldiers fainted and had to be rescued. After weeks of work the pipeline was usable as a covered passageway towards Sudzha.

Drawn from five different military units a force of 800 men was assembled and prepared for the mission.

During the first two month of the year the Ukrainian forces had already lost ground on the western side of their incursion area. The general situation had gotten worse after the Russian forces gained fire control via drones over the only larger supply route from Sumy to Sudzha. Videos from that road showed dozens of wreaked and burned out vehicles. But the Ukrainian lines, and Sudzha, were still holding.

Situation on March 1 2025

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In early March Russia commandos entered the pipeline (along the arrow above). They used it to get to the north of the industrial zone of Sudzha, started to cut exit-holes and dug through the ground covering the pipeline. Some 800 soldiers followed and settled down within the pipeline.

On March 8, when the command was given, the Russian commandos exited the pipeline and entered nearby woods. They moved on to blockade the 34k-004 road, crossed it and entered the northern part of the industrial zone of Sudzha. There they could dug in. No larger Ukrainian units were in the immediate area. No one could stop the move.

Exit point and attack route

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Hearing reports on their radios of enemies in their back the Ukrainian soldiers panicked. Every unit north-east and east of Sudzha was cut off from supplies. There was no way to retreat. At the same time the Russian army attacked in the west and north of the Ukrainian held area. Resistance soon collapsed. Those who could retreated to Sudzha did so. From there they tried to move back to Ukraine.

Situation on March 11 2025

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Within one day the Ukrainian held area had shrunk by half. The Russian re-captured and cleared a total of 12 settlements. Current reports say that the Ukrainian forces within Russia are in full retreat along roads under permanent fire. Some will survive.

Meanwhile Russian forces are entering Sudzha.

This operation is a wonderful demonstration of what the Russians call 'Operational Art'. It connects the details of tactics with the goals of the strategy.

The move through the pipeline, behind Ukrainian lines and the cut through major Ukrainian supply lines achieved within days more than months of bloody fighting. The commander of this operation has surely earned some high honors.

Dima of the Military Summary Channel discussed some of the above in yesterday's summary.

A Russian news channel provided an excellent five minute video (with English subtitles) which shows the operation. It includes takes from within the pipeline.

This operation is one for the books.

Posted by b at 17:46 UTC | Comments (490)

March 10, 2025

Gordon Hahn On Europe's Role And A Possible Coup In Kiev

Two interesting thoughts from Gordon Hahn's latest piece:

The World Order’s Restructuring Intensifies as the Ukrainian War Implodes the West and Kiev

One question the piece tackles is a split between the U.S. and Europe. The core question:

The international level of the Ukrainian conflict is shifting from a bilateral confrontation between the West and Russia to a trilateral confrontation involving Russia, the U.S., and a new European-Ukrainian axis, with each riven by divisions generated by the intra-Atlantic cold civil war. This begs the question: Will Europe become a separate pole in the international system’s new multipolar stucture, adding to the U.S, and Sin-Russian pole?

Hard to tell, but I doubt it. Europe (which I understand to mean the European Union) does not have sufficient unity to become a real actor in a multipolar structure. The core project of the 'ever closer union' has failed politically and economically. It is bureaucratic laggardness, no intellectual heft, that is still driving it.

Europe's resistance to America’s rapprochement with Russia and peace efforts for Ukraine means stagnation which will only hinder its development towards a more autonomous structure.

Another point of Hahn's piece is made in his discussion about the future configuration of the government in Kiev. It is a warning to those who want to remove Zelenski:

Cont. reading: Gordon Hahn On Europe's Role And A Possible Coup In Kiev

Posted by b at 15:48 UTC | Comments (343)

March 09, 2025