An Immediate Peace Is The Best One Ukraine Can Ever Get

The attritional war in Ukraine is moving towards a new phase. The Ukrainian army is crumbling but its leadership, with the support of some Europeans, is unwilling to concede its defeat.

There are still very unrealistic views in the West about the losses and capabilities in this conflict. They prevent those who have them from acknowledging the urgent need for peace negotiations. 

In a new analysis Alex Vershinin, an expert from RUSI, provides sound arguments and numbers for those who support an immediate end of the war.

In military circles Vershinin is a well known capacity:

Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.

Vershinin is working for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the official think tank of the British military. His experience with modeling and simulations allows him to take the 'big picture' view.

In June 2022 RUSI published his piece on The Return of Industrial Warfare (Jun 17 2022) in which he warned about of lack of an industrial base in the West to sustain a war in Ukraine against Russia. I have referred to the piece in some of my writings:

Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race - Moon of Alabama, Sep 14 2023

A warning that Russia will outproduce the West was given back in June 2022 when Alex Vershinin of RUSI issued a note about The Return of Industrial Warfare:

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

It has become too expensive for the West to regain that capability.

That Russia was running out of stuff was always wishful thinking, not fact based analysis. On that point it took the media more than a year to catch up with reality. On other aspects of the the war, casualty numbers come to mind, the media are still miles behind.

In another RUSI piece published in March 2024 Vershinin repeated his warning. I referred to it in May 2024:

When it came out in March I had read and linked to the latest Alex Vershinin piece at RUSI:

The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine - RUSI

The attritional character of the war was obvious since Putin ordered the de-militarization of Ukraine. It is finally getting some discussion.

Vershinin is thus right in that the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. But it is a one-sided one. It is only NATO and its proxy force Ukraine which get attrited while the Russian military gains in quality and quantity.

Still, it's a must read:

The fastest way to lose a war of attrition is to focus on manoeuvre, expending valuable resources on near-term territorial objectives.

This is exactly what Ukraine has done so far (Bakhmut, Krinky).
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The 'west' (i.e. the U.S.) has lost its mind on the issue:

If the West is serious about a possible great power conflict, it needs to take a hard look at its industrial capacity, mobilisation doctrine and means of waging a protracted war, rather than conducting wargames covering a single month of conflict and hoping that the war will end afterwards.

Shortly after that writing the Ukrainian army launched its disastrous incursion into Russia's Kursk region. It was, after Bakhmut and Krinki, the third large operation which wasted Ukrainian lives and resources on a large scale for temporary propaganda gains.

A months ago Vershinin came out with a third piece that covers the issue. RUSI refrained, for whatever reason, from publishing it. It first appeared in Russia Matters under the title:

Battlefield Conditions Impacting Ukraine Peace Negotiations - Russia Matters, Apr 18 2025

It received little response. It was later republished under a different headline by Responsible Statecraft where I finally noticed it:

Ukraine’s battlefield position is deteriorating fast - Responsible Statecraft, May 5 2025
Should Kyiv collapse, the Russian army will surge forward, pushing the line of contact deeper into Ukraine and peace terms will get worse

Vershinin starts by pointing out the geopolitical importance for the West of wining (or losing) the war:

Cont. reading: An Immediate Peace Is The Best One Ukraine Can Ever Get

Palestine Open Thread 2025-103

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Ukraine Open Thread 2025-102

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The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-101

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• May 5 - Yemen - They Defeated The Saudis, Then Biden, Now Trump
• May 7 - Yemen - U.S. Concedes Maritime Defeat
  Related:
  - MI5’s Fake Terror Plots 19 - Craig Murray
  - Trump Interview Puts Iran Negotiations in Jeopardy - Ted Snider / AntiWar
  - Exclusive — Steve Witkoff Ahead of Round 4 of Talks: Iran Has Agreed ‘They Don’t Want’ Nuclear Weapon - Breitbart

• May 6 - Germany - Merz Fails To Become Chancellor In Shocking First-Round Vote
  Related:
  - BREAKING: New Merz government orders the pushback of all illegal migrants - Eugyppius
  - How the Establishment Is Domesticating Populism - Thomas Fazi / Compact
  - Romania’s elites are riding the populist tiger - Aris Roussinos / Unherd
  - The Road Right - Wolfgang Streeck / New Left Review

• May 8 - Ukraine - Rada Blocks Detail Agreements Of Mineral Deal
  Related:
  - Vance says Russia ‘asking for too much’ to end war with Ukraine - Politico
  - Hardening lines signal Ukraine peace process collapse - Asia Times
  - Trump’s peacemaking was always doomed - Thomas Fazi / Unherd
  - Trump Still Does Not Understand What Russia Wants and Demands - Sonar21
  
  - Ukraine and allies demand 30-day ceasefire; Putin wants talks first (archived) - Washington Post
  - Putin says Russia is 'committed' to restart talks with Kyiv, suggests May 15 start - NBCnews
  - France, Germany, Poland, UK and Ukraine issue statement on need for ceasefire - Pravda.ua

Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE - 22:57 UTC · May 9, 2025

> Macron, Merz, Starmer, and Tusk were supposed to discuss peace in Kiev. Instead, they are blurting out threats against Russia. Either a truce for the respite of Banderite hordes or new sanctions. You think that’s smart, eh? Shove these peace plans up your pangender arses! <

• May 9 - Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests
  Related:
  - Is Donald Trump Putting Israel in the Dog House? - Sonar21
  - Karma Arriving? Times of Israel Frets Over Trump Abandonment With Houthis and Perhaps Even Iran - Naked Capitalism
  - Netanyahu's Israel Cannot Provide Trump With Any Wins He Can Promote Back Home (archived) - Haaretz

• May 9 - Victory Day
  Related:
  - VICTORY DAY 80 - Patrick Armstrong
  - The Moscow Victory Day Military Parade, 9 May 2025 - Gilbert Doctorow
  - Travel Notes, Installment Five: Miscellany - Gilbert Doctorow
  - U.S., Russia In Quiet Talks to Bring Russian Gas Back to Europe - OilPrice

• May 10 - Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan
  Related:
  - Normality returns as nuclear-armed neighbours step back from the brink - Dawn
  - Vance called Indian prime minister to encourage ceasefire talks after receiving alarming intelligence - CNN
  - Reluctant at First, Trump Officials Intervened in South Asia as Nuclear Fears Grew (archived) - NY Times
  - China’s J-10 ‘Dragon’ shows teeth in India-Pakistan combat debut (archived) - FT
  - Military operation in Pakistan reveals weaknesses of India's air force - Le Monde

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-101

Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan

Despite plenty of attempts to do better, the Trump administration had so far failed to achieve any foreign policy victory.

The ceasefire in Gaza which Trump imposed in January was soon sabotaged by the radicals in Netanyahoo's cabinet. The negotiations about peace in Ukraine are stuck around a yet be agreed upon ceasefire which does not solve the root problem. The war on Yemen, on Israel's behalf, was lost militarily. Iran, despite threats, has not moved on inch from its insistence on nuclear sovereignty. The tariff rage waged against China and everyone else is threatening to derail the U.S. economy.

All this makes today's win a special moment.

President Trump announced:

After a long night of talks mediated by the United States, I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a FULL AND IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE. Congratulations to both countries on using Common Sense and Great Intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ...

Details followed immediately:

Secretary Marco Rubio @SecRubio - 12:07 UTC · May 10, 2025

Over the past 48 hours, @VP Vance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik.

I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.

We commend Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif on their wisdom, prudence, and statesmanship in choosing the path of peace.

Trump and his cabinet have thus achieved a notable and laudable victory. U.S. mediation has helped to deescalated a crises in South Asia that had threatened to turn into a full fledged (nuclear) war.

On Tuesday, April 22 2025, 26 people were killed when gunman opened fire on tourists in the Indian-occupied Kashmir:

A group of tourists were visiting a popular area — a meadow in mountainous Kashmir’s Baisaran Valley, known as “mini-Switzerland,” outside the town of Pahalgam — when militants emerged from a nearby forest and opened fire. Police said 25 Indians and one Nepalese citizen were killed. Since the group was in an area only accessible by foot or horseback, getting the injured to the nearest hospital was difficult, one witness told The Washington Post.

Indian media outlets attributed the attack to the Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group banned by New Delhi in 2023 as a terrorist organization, but there was no verifiable claim of responsibility.

Indian claims that the TRF has support from Pakistan. In consequence it announced sharp retaliatory measures, targeting trade and the critical Simla water agreement. It ordered to cut the Indus water lifeline into Pakistan.

Craig Murray explains why this was and is an existential threat to that country:

Cont. reading: Trump Claims Victory In Achieving Peace Between India And Pakistan

Victory Day

Victory day:

Victory Day is a holiday that commemorates the victory of the Soviet Union over Nazi Germany in 1945. It was first inaugurated in the 15 republics of the Soviet Union following the signing of the German Instrument of Surrender late in the evening on 8 May 1945 (9 May Moscow Time). The Soviet government announced the victory early on 9 May after the signing ceremony in Berlin.

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A live feed of the Victory Day parade 2025 in Moscow can be watched here.

Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests

Over the last weeks U.S. President Donald Trump has broken links between U.S. foreign policy issues in the Middle East and considerations for Israel's interest.

Last month the prime minister of the 'Zionist entity' Benjamin Mileikowsky Netanyahoo visited Washington DC to push Trump towards bombing Iran's nuclear installations. Trump instead announced new talks with Iran. Netanyahoo's attempt had failed:

U.S. President Donald Trump blindsided Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month with a gamble on immediately opening negotiations with Iran.
...
The pivot to negotiations with Iran in April was a shock for Netanyahu, who had flown to Washington seeking Trump's backing for military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and learned less than 24 hours before a joint White House press event that U.S. talks with Iran were starting within days, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Next came the Trump pivot on Yemen about which Netanyahoo had not been informed:

Barak Ravid, a political analyst for the Zionist media outlet ‘Walla’, said that Trump's agreement with Yemen has severely constrained Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Ron Dermer, a close advisor to Netanyahu.

Pointing out that Trump has bypassed the Zionist regime by reaching an agreement on a ceasefire with Yemen's Ansarallah, he stated it seems that Israel's ability to influence the US-Iran negotiations to reach a new nuclear agreement has so far been very restricted.

The senior Israeli official said that he knew nothing about Trump's decision. “Trump surprised us," he added.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday evening during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House that Yemen's Ansarullah announced that they will no longer fight against the United States, and the United States will also stop its attacks on Yemen.

Today we learn that the U.S. is willing to help Saudi Arabia with a civil nuclear program without requiring Saudi normalization with Israel:

Cont. reading: Trump Decouples U.S. Middle East Policy From Israel's Interests

Palestine Open Thread 2025-100

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Ukraine Open Thread 2025-099

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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-098

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