Moon of Alabama

March 20, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-058

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 11:40 UTC | Comments (251)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-057

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 11:40 UTC | Comments (344)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-056

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Posted by b at 11:39 UTC | Comments (211)

March 19, 2025

Trump Seeks Russian Support For War On Iran

The readouts from the U.S. and Russian side about yesterday's phone call between President Trump and President Putin has me concerned about the potential of another war in the Middle East.

The Russian readout has 674 words. It is quite specific about Ukraine issues. There is a two sentences paragraph about the Middle East:

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also addressed some other international issues, including the situation in the Middle East and in the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilise the situation in the crisis spots and establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security.

What those 'joint efforts' might be is not specified.

With just 227 words the U.S. readout is much shorter. There is much less on Ukraine. A whole one fourth of the readout is with concern to the Middle East:

The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.

Iran, not mentioned by the Russian's, is mentioned in the context of nuclear ('strategic') weapons.

Iran seems to be the next item on Trump's international meddling list.

Recently leaked documents point to major U.S. planning for a war with Iran. The suddenly renewed U.S. bombing of Yemen, despite no recent attacks by Ansarallah on international shipping, seem to be a provocation towards that:

Tehran has begun circling the wagons as a new phase is beginning in Trump’s foreign policies, with tensions rising steadily over the nuclear issue. The October deadline is drawing closer by the day for invoking the snapback clause in the JCPOA (2015 Iran nuclear deal) to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions will expire, and Iran’s enrichment programme, on the other hand, has apparently reached a point where it already has a stockpile to make “several” nuclear bombs, per the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran however has Russian and Chinese backing:

On March 14, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hosted a joint meeting in Beijing with the Russian and Iranian deputy foreign ministers where he proposed five points “on the proper settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue”, which, for all purposes endorsed Tehran’s stance. It was a resounding diplomatic victory for Iran.
Interestingly, the Beijing meeting was timed to coincide with the conclusion of a 6-day naval exercise at Iran’s Chabahar Port with the theme of Creating Peace and Security Together between the navies of Iran, Russia and China.
...
Moscow has lately waded into the Iran nuclear issue and is positioning itself for a mediatory role potentially. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently came out against attaching extraneous issues (eg., verifiable arrangements by Tehran to ensure the cessation of its support for resistance groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria) to the nuclear negotiations. Lavrov said frankly, “Such a thing is unlikely to yield results.”

Before the renewed bombing of Yemen Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Lavrov had their own phone call. The short U.S. readout said:

The Secretary informed Russia of U.S. military deterrence operations against the Iran-backed Houthis and emphasized that continued Houthi attacks on U.S. military and commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea will not be tolerated.

It did not mention that Russia spoke out against it:

The Russian Foreign Ministry, in a readout on Saturday, stated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Lavrov and informed him about the US decision to attack the Houthis. It said Lavrov, in response, “emphasised the need for an immediate cessation of the use of force and the importance of all parties engaging in political dialogue to find a solution that prevents further bloodshed.” Well, the shoe is on the other foot now, isn’t it?

Trump seems to believe that he can gain Russia's support, or at least its neutrality, in a futile conflict with Iran, by offering to end the U.S. proxy war in Ukraine.

Russia however seems to completely reject such plans.

Posted by b at 14:58 UTC | Comments (224)

Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal

The publicly known results of yesterday's telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are only minor:

In the run up to today's call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin.
But the results look like there's little to shout about.

The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.

Trump can point to Putin's pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.

But it's nowhere near the full and unconditional ceasefire that the US wanted from Russia.

The length of the call, more than two hours, suggests that there were more items to talk about than just a ceasefire in Ukraine. However neither side has given more than a hints of what these items might have been.

The Russian pledge to immediately halt attacks on energy facilities is not new at all.

The Russian readout of yesterday's talk is explicitly mentioning a ceasefire on energy facilities:

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.

The White House readout acknowledges the offer but does not confirm a date for its acceptance:

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

Ukraine seems to have not yet agreed to such a deal (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal

Posted by b at 13:53 UTC | Comments (193)

March 18, 2025

Ever Predicted, Never Happening: Russia's Collapse

Badmouthing Russia's economy has a certain tradition:

Russia's Collapse - Foreign Affairs, Sep 1, 1999
Russia Is Finished - The Atlantic, May 2001
The Russian Economic Crisis - CFR, Apr 2010

Since the start of the Special Military operation in Ukraine many outlets joined the above doomsayers of the foreign policy blob.

Since then most reports about Russia's economy predicted a collapse or at least severe difficulties. Here are some from just the previous six months:

Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession - Business Insider, Sep 26 2024
Humiliation for Putin as Russia could plunge into 'economic collapse' to plug £30bn debt - Express, Oct 7 2024
Putin's Economy Approaches 'Burnout Point' - Newsweek, Oct 8 2024
Russia’s economy is overheating but Putin cannot change course - Atlantic Council, Oct 31, 2024
Russia’s War Economy Is Hitting Its Limits - Foreign Policy, Nov 14 2024
Russia’s economy is doomed - New Statesman, Nov 28 2024
Russian rouble collapse exposes deep problems in the country’s economy - The Conservation, Dec 3 2024
The Russian Economy Remains Putin’s Greatest Weakness - Foreign Affairs, Dec 9, 2024
Russia’s war economy spirals out of control as 2025 brings looming stagnation - NZZ, Jan 7 2025
Is 2025 the year that Russia’s economy finally freezes up under sanctions? - Atlantic Council, Jan 8 2025
Russia’s war economy is a house of cards (archived) - Financial Times, Jan 13 2025
Putin's war economy is running on fumes as inflation and shortages surge - Kyiv Independent, Jan 15 2025
Don’t Blink Now, Trump. Russia’s Economy Is Cracking. - Bloomberg, Feb 10 2025
Russia’s economy is stagnating – but that won’t force it to end the war - The Conservation, Mar 10 2025
The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse and Putin knows it - Independent, Mar 13 2025
Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace - Reuters, Mar 17 2025

Meanwhile the Russian economy is doing well. Its economy is growing faster than most other.

Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF - BBC, Apr 16 2024
IMF raises forecast for growth in Russia's GDP by 0.1 pp in 2025 - Interfax, Jan 17 2025

The lesson from this? Much of what one reads in mainstream media about Russia (and other so called enemies) is garbage.

Posted by b at 16:00 UTC | Comments (198)

March 17, 2025

Trump Bombs Yemen (Short Take)

(The system is acting up on my thus just this short take.)

Fresh US strikes in Yemen with 53 now dead, Houthis say - BBC

Thoughts:

Bombing Yemen is stupid. The Saudis tried for years to get their way by doing that and were defeated.
Yemen can and does shoot back.
It is only a question of time until it hits a U.S. war ship and causes casualties.
Then Trump will be hard pressed to escalate the war towards Iran.
Iran can not be defeated.

That's it.

Posted by b at 18:20 UTC | Comments (418)

March 16, 2025