Ukraine Open Thread 2023-31

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-30

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• Jan 30 - Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine
• Jan 30 - NATO Continues Its Disarmament:
  Related:
  - The Arsenal of Democracy Isn't - Will Schryver
  - Diplomatic Cables Show Russia Saw NATO Expansion as a Red Line - ACURA
  - Gordon Hahn: The NATO-Russian Ukraine War’s New, Most Dangerous Phase - Understanding Russia
  - Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with Rossiya 24 and RIA Novosti, Moscow, February 2, 2023 - MID.ru
  - Vladimir Putin speech on the Anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad. - Kremlin.ru

• Feb 2 - On The Media Of 'Russiagate' And Related Fake Stories
  Related:
  - Diplomatic Immunity - LRB
  - Hunter Biden Claims His Laptop - WSJ
  - The Real Disinformation Was the ‘Russia Disinformation’ Hoax - Antiwar

• Feb 3 - Ukraine SitRep: U.S.-Russia Talks, Bakhmut Retreat, Laughable Casualty Numbers
  Related:
  - The Costs of a Long War in Ukraine - NYT
  - After months of stalemate, Vladimir Putin’s army is on the move again - Telegraph
  - Claim: Ukrainian and Russian casualties according to MOSSAD (in Turkish) - Hürseda Haber
    The above confirms Col. Macgregor's casualty numbers.
    Brigade in Bakhmut asks for 500 body bags. Bakhmut survival time for recruits is 4 hours. Technicals go to the front.

Moon of Alabama @MoonofA - 7:49 UTC · Feb 5, 2023

Then premier of Israel Bennet (2:47h):
"I told Zelensky: 'Putin will not kill you. He promised that.' Two hours later Zelensky publishes selfie saying 'I am not afraid!'"

(3:02h)
"There was a good chance of ceasefire but (the West) curbed it."

Bennett speaks out (Video, English subs)

• Feb 4 - Blinken's Travel Canceling Adds To China Hate
  Related:
  - The Pentagon’s Plans for a Perpetual Three-Front “Long War” Against China and Russia (2018!) - Naked Capitalism
  - Chinese Spy Balloon Over the US: An Aerospace Expert Explains How the Balloons Work and What They Can See - Naked Capitalism
  - U.S. military’s newest weapon against China and Russia: Hot air (2022) - Politico
    The Pentagon is quietly transitioning high-altitude balloon projects to the military services.

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-30

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-29

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Blinken's Travel Canceling Adds To China Hate

In 1964 Richard Hofstadter wrote about The Paranoid Style in American Politics:

Events since 1939 have given the contemporary right-wing paranoid a vast theatre for his imagination, full of rich and proliferating detail, replete with realistic cues and undeniable proofs of the validity of his suspicions. The theatre of action is now the entire world, and he can draw not only on the events of World War II, but also on those of the Korean War and the Cold War. Any historian of warfare knows it is in good part a comedy of errors and a museum of incompetence; but if for every error and every act of incompetence one can substitute an act of treason, many points of fascinating interpretation are open to the paranoid imagination. In the end, the real mystery, for one who reads the primary works of paranoid scholarship, is not how the United States has been brought to its present dangerous position but how it has managed to survive at all.

The paranoid style is not only used on the right-wing side of policies. Adam Schiff's action during 'Russiagate' applied plenty of it. The paranoid style applies to internal U.S. politics as well as to foreign policies against this or that favorite enemy of that time.

It makes the story below, which otherwise just laughable, somewhat dangerous.

Furor Over Chinese Spy Balloon Leads to a Diplomatic Crisis
The Pentagon called the object, which has flown from Montana to Kansas, an “intelligence gathering” balloon. Beijing said it was used mainly for weather research and had strayed off course.

As some 80+% of all Pentagon intelligence comes from open sources the 'intelligence gathering' statement may well include a weather research system. Weather research and weather prediction are important for all kinds of military operations. But they are also important for many civil operations from agriculture, food availability prediction to drainage planning in cities.

The story's opener:

Cont. reading: Blinken's Travel Canceling Adds To China Hate

Ukraine SitRep: U.S.-Russia Talks, Bakhmut Retreat, Laughable Casualty Numbers

The Swiss paper Neue Zürcher Zeitung published a piece today (in German) which claimed that CIA boss William Burns had offered 20% of Ukraine to Russia in exchange for peace in Ukraine.

As Newsweek summarizes:

NZZ reported on Thursday, citing high-ranking German foreign politicians, that in mid-January, Burns presented Kyiv and Moscow with a peace plan that would put an end to the war, which began when Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

According to the newspaper, the proposal offered "around 20 percent of Ukraine's territory"—about the size of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

The Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov, the White House and the CIA rejected the claim:

A CIA official told Newsweek that claims in the NZZ report that Burns took a secret trip to Moscow in January and that there was a peace proposal put forward by the director on behalf of the White House were "completely false."

Last month, Burns traveled in secret to meet and brief Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, the Washington Post reported.

The Neue Züricher says that Kiev as well as Moscow had rejected the U.S. plan.

That everyone is denying that this happened means that the Züricher claims are likely true.

We know that talks between Washington and Kiev are ongoing.

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: U.S.-Russia Talks, Bakhmut Retreat, Laughable Casualty Numbers

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-28

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

On The Media Of 'Russiagate' And Related Fake Stories

Last week Matt Taibbi, with access to Twitter's internal papers, debunked the fake Hamilton 68 propaganda dashboard that was used to create many stories about alleged Russian disinformation. I had done similar five years earlier but had no access to the original data. There were enough secondary indications to conclude that the dashboard was a sham. Still, have the case made with primary data is a valuable addition.

There has been no Russian influence or disinformation campaign.

Two days later the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) published a five part longread from an 18 month long investigation into the 'Russigate' drama and on how the media had cooked it up.

CJR's editor wrote the intro:

No narrative did more to shape Trump’s relations with the press than Russiagate. The story, which included the Steele dossier and the Mueller report among other totemic moments, resulted in Pulitzer Prizes as well as embarrassing retractions and damaged careers. For Trump, the press’s pursuit of the Russia story convinced him that any sort of normal relationship with the press was impossible.

For the past year and a half, CJR has been examining the American media’s coverage of Trump and Russia in granular detail, and what it means as the country enters a new political cycle. Investigative reporter Jeff Gerth interviewed dozens of people at the center of the story—editors and reporters, Trump himself, and others in his orbit.

The result is an encyclopedic look at one of the most consequential moments in American media history.

Gerth's, who is 78, is a longtime mainstream investigative reporter who has written for major media outlets. The result of his investigation is indeed encyclopedic, detailed and very damaging.

The four parts are in chronological order and I recommend to read them all to grasp the real extend of the media's failures.

• INTRODUCTION: ‘I realized early on I had two jobs’
• Chapter 2: The origins of fake news
• Chapter 3: A contested Pulitzer
• Chapter 4: Helsinki and the $3,000 Russian disinformation campaign

For those who do not have time to read the four lengthy pieces there is a Foxnews piece with a decent summary of their content.

Gerth ends his review with a personal afterword:

Cont. reading: On The Media Of 'Russiagate' And Related Fake Stories

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-27

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-26

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) ...

NATO Continues Its Disarmament

NATO is continuing its disarmament mission.

France to send an extra 12 powerful Caesar howitzers to Ukraine

French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu's announcement that France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Kyiv is "clearly important for the Ukrainians, particularly the Caesar artillery system", said FRANCE 24 Chief Foreign Editor Robert Parsons.
...
"They've been very successful in Ukraine, so the Ukrainians will be delighted, I am sure, to get another 12. I think that brings that total to over 40 now, closing on 50 Caesars in Ukraine.

France has only 77 Caesar howitzer left. Others though are worse off.

Estonia Sending All Its 155-mm Howitzers to Ukraine

Estonia will donate all its 155-millimeter howitzers to Ukraine as part of its most extensive military assistance yet.

The package, previously reported to be worth 113 million euros ($122 million), is expected to boost Kyiv’s defense capabilities amid continuing Russian aggression.

Estonia currently operates 24 NATO standard FH-70 towed howitzers.

Apart from the howitzers, Tallinn will send thousands of 155-mm artillery shells and hundreds of Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers.

We know how all that artillery will end.

Cont. reading: NATO Continues Its Disarmament