Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine

A European financial research company has sent me one of their quarterly research letters. It is a 'contrarian review of political and military ramifications' of the war in Ukraine. It analyzes 'winners and losers' of the war.

It is contrarian only in the sense that it counters the false views of 'western' mainstream media with reality. The losers of the war are all on the 'western' side with the only two winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry and Russia.

I was sent the courtesy copy because, as the company writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.

Note to the authors: You are welcome.

I will not quote from the paper as it seems to be a somewhat confidential business product. But I will steal two graphics from it that will help to understand the size of the war in Ukraine and how it will NOT end.

There have been theories that Poland or some U.S. led coalition force would intervene with their troops on the ground in Ukraine to 'kick the Russians out'.

The two graphics though dispel any hope for such an operation.

The following is an operational map of Desert Storm. The U.S. led operation in spring 1991 to kick Iraq out of Kuwait.

Cont. reading: Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-25

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-24

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

• Jan 23 - U.S. Officials Claim More 'Russiagate' Like Nonsense
• Jan 26 - Spain Debunks Russiagate like New York Times Letter Bomb Story
  Related:
  - Observer to a Failed Uprising (Belarus) - Covert Action Magazine
  - Russia Blamed (As Whitney Predicted) For Spain “White Supremacy Attack” – Vanilla ISIS Psyop Begins - Last American Vagabond
  - Letter bomb suspect sought to end Spain's support for Ukraine, judge says - Reuters

> Still, the evidence suggests Gonzalez acted alone, the judge wrote. He said the suspect's alleged actions showed his intent to alter the public peace and to give the impression they were carried out by people with ties with Russia as retribution for Spain's and the United States' support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of the country.

"There is no indication that the person under investigation belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organised group," the statement said. <

• Jan 24 - Ukraine SitRep - No Southern Push Yet, Kiev Government Trouble, Tanks And Escalation
• Jan 25 - Ukraine Claims Orderly Retreat From City It Lost Days Ago
• Jan 27 - Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War
  Related:
  - What's Next? - Helmholtz Smith / Sonar21
  - Kennan’s Warning on Ukraine - Foreign Affairs
  - Barry Posen's 1994 defense concept for Ukraine (long read but very interesting) - Security Studies Program @MIT
  
  - Chartbook #191 Tanks for Ukraine - Adam Tooze
  - Truth About Tanks: How NATO Lied Its Way to Disaster in Ukraine - Scott Ritter / Sputniknews
  - US to Send Abrams Tanks to Ukraine: Will it make any Difference? - Brian Berletic / Journal NEO
  
  - NATO’s 'war against Russia' inches 'closer to direct conflict' (unlocked) - Aaron Maté

• Jan 28 - Twitter Files Debunk Hamilton 68 Dashboard - (We Did The Same Five Years Ago)
  Related:
  - Hamilton 68: Brief Addendum - Matt Taibbi
  - FBI created dashboard to mislabel Twitter users as Russian bots - Al Mayadeen
  - PropOrNot – Setting Up the Atlantic Council for Lawsuits (2018) - Naked Capitalism
  - Left-wing think tank responsible for thousands of fake Russia stories: new Twitter Files - New York Post

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-24

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-23

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Twitter Files Debunk Hamilton 68 Dashboard - (We Did The Same Five Years Ago)

The Twitter files continue to confirm our long held suspicion of nefarious anti-Russian influence in mainstream media.

When criticizing the recent fakenews about letter bombs in Spain spread by the New York Times I asserted:

The New York Times, as well as British media with their equally stupid Skripal affair claims, can be credited with giving cover for the anti-Russian propaganda campaign. It was unleashed after, in 2014, Russia reintegrated Crimea and foiled British and U.S. plans for stationing their naval forces in the Azov and Black Sea.

The Times and other media should be held responsible for the deadly consequences its misreporting and lies have caused.

Six days ago the New York Times attributed the letter bombs in Spain to Russian secret service based on 'U.S. officials' assertions. Yesterday the Spanish investigating magistrate refuted those claims:

[T]he evidence suggests Gonzalez acted alone, the judge wrote. He said the suspect's alleged actions showed his intent to alter the public peace and to give the impression they were carried out by people with ties with Russia as retribution for Spain's and the United States' support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of the country.

"There is no indication that the person under investigation belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organised group," the statement said.

The letter bomb campaign, as well as the New York Times false assertions about them, were both part of the public anti-Russia campaign.

The campaign, launched in 2014, was reinforced after the 2016 election when the losing candidate, Hillary Clinton, blamed 'Russian influence' for her loss instead of her own ineptitude for any higher government position.

Soon a horde of 'disinformation de-bunking' institutes and lobbies evolved. They all claimed to have some insight into 'Russia's influence campaign' that was allegedly designed to deceive U.S. voters. 'Russiagate', the MI6 operation that created the Steele dossier and the false narratives around it, grew on top of that. Partisan actors in the FBI and CIA jumped in to amplify that stuff despite knowing well that it was nonsense. Irresponsible media sucked it all up and spread it further without any fact checking or logical thought. For so called mainstream journalists it was all easy work that brought in good money.

One of the organization involved in this was the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a part of the the German Marshall Fund (which has by the way little to do with Germany). It created the 'Hamilton 68 dashboard' which listed trending hashtags used by some 600 Twitter accounts which it alleged were 'Russian bots'.

Based on the dashboard mainstream media produced hundreds of stories about trending hashtags that allegedly furthered Russian influence.

But, as I exposed in February 2018, there was nothing there. Just like 'Russiagate' it was just another great scam.

As I wrote at that time:

Cont. reading: Twitter Files Debunk Hamilton 68 Dashboard - (We Did The Same Five Years Ago)

Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

RAND Corp is a government and industry financed large research institute. Founded shortly after the end of the second world war it mostly works for the Pentagon by developing policies and strategies.

In April 2019 RAND published a report about Extending Russia (pdf).

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The report summary explained its purpose:

As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options).

RAND developed policy options in those four fields. It then evaluated their benefit, cost and risks as well as their likelihood of success.

Here is their summary table for economic measures:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-22

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Spain Debunks Russiagate like New York Times Letter Bomb Story

Just three days ago I mocked a New York Times story that used 'Russiagate' like claims by 'U.S. officials' to tie a number of letter bomb incidents in Spain to some 'Russian terrorist organization'.

U.S. Officials Claim More 'Russiagate' Like Nonsense

According to what U.S. officials claim some anti-Kremlin fringe group in Russia was used by a Russian intelligence service to somehow send letter bombs from Valladolid, Spain, to some offices in Madrid.

But why would Russian intelligence run such a nonsense campaign? Why would it use a problematic fringe group of Russian crazies to do so. Why in Spain? Why not in Poland, Germany or France? What is the evidence?

None of those questions get answered. Instead rumors and hot air assumptions are put together to make the claims somewhat less outrageous. This is on the same level as the lies about 'weapons of mass destruction in Iraq' the Times printed 20 years ago.
...
We know that 'U.S. intelligence' is bullshit and that U.S. official are liars, especially with regards to anything around Ukraine.

We know that because 'U.S. officials' said so:

That makes the publishing of the above story by the Times even more egregious.

Three days on the Spanish police arrested the guy most likely responsible for making and sending out those letter bombs:

The man was detained in the northern town of Miranda de Ebro, and police searched his home.

The suspect is a retired Spanish citizen with the initials P.G.P. who is tech-savvy and very active on social networks, the ministry said.

Cont. reading: Spain Debunks Russiagate like New York Times Letter Bomb Story

Ukraine Claims Orderly Retreat From City It Lost Days Ago

This is currently at the top of the Yahoo homepage.

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Ukraine forces pull back from Donbas town after onslaught

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian forces have conducted an organized retreat from a town in the eastern region of the Donbas, an official said Wednesday, in what is a rare but modest battlefield triumph for the Kremlin after a series of setbacks in its invasion that began almost 11 months ago.

Reading the headline I was surprised. Did the Ukrainian command suddenly get sense and ordered the retreat from Bakhmut, which the U.S. has asked for? It would make sense because Bakhmut is where half of the Ukrainian army currently gets ground into bloody dust.

But alas. The second paragraph provides that it is just another fake news story.

The Ukrainian army retreated from the salt-mining town of Soledar to “preserve the lives of the personnel,” Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s forces in the east, told The Associated Press.

The soldiers pulled back to previously prepared defensive positions, he said.

Moscow has portrayed the battle for Soledar, which lies near the city of Bakhmut, as key to capturing the entire Donbas.
...
Russia claimed almost two weeks ago that it had taken Soledar, but Ukraine denied it.

It is easy to test who was or is lying here.

It was on January 13, 12 days and not two weeks ago, that Russia publicly claimed to have taken the center of Soledar.

Cont. reading: Ukraine Claims Orderly Retreat From City It Lost Days Ago

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twice a year I ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going as it is.

Most readers of this site value our analyses. Some even laud us:

Chomsky: Advanced US Weaponry in Ukraine Is Sustaining Battlefield Stalemate - Truthout - Dec 22, 2022

Noam Chomsky: What Merkel had in mind we do not know. We do know that there is no basis in the historical or diplomatic record for her claims. I am inclined to agree with the astute commentator who posts under the name “Moon of Alabama.” He points out that “Merkel is under very harsh critique not only in the U.S. but also in her own conservative party. She is now out to justify her previous decisions as well as the current bad outcome in Ukraine. My hunch is that she is making things up. Unfortunately she also creates serious damage.”

He proceeds to a close analysis of the texts to justify this conclusion, which is the most plausible one I’ve seen.

Others are fond of its vivid comment section. I am very proud to host, and nurture it, to the best of my abilities.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

This website is a tribute not just to the proprietor but to the idea of democracy. The general conclusions reached here over the past nine months (for example) have consistently outperformed the media, the Academy and the political castes which amount to an incredibly expensive and complex and enormously staffed engine designed -in theory at least- to arrive at a realistic assessment of the situation.

Cont. reading: Please Support Moon of Alabama