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February 17, 2025

U.S. Questions For European Governments - Another Wake-up Call

U.S. Vice President JD Vance has held up a mirror to Europe's 'elite' which did not like to acknowledge what could be seen in it: Minions, a lot of minions.

"But our common values?" cried Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

What values Mr. Heusgen? Those displayed daily, with your applause, by the European colonists in Palestine?

"Like a headless chicken," is what the German broadsheet Frankfurter Allgemeine called the reaction of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The descriptions fits to (nearly) all European leader.

Today U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia. They will talk like grownups, EU be damned, and find ways to achieve peace in Ukraine and elsewhere.

The Europeans are aghast that they are not invited to take part in the talks.

But why would one invite parties to peace talks when they want nothing more than to sabotage those? The EU's foreign representative Kaja Kallas, a former mayor of Baltic villages, dreams of breaking up Russia into smaller states. How could Russia ever seriously negotiate with such people?

Today the Europeans will huddle in Paris to find some, any, way to get out of the mess. It won't work unless they acknowledge that the war in Ukraine has been lost.

The U.S. has recognized that there aren't enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what's left of Ukraine. The European 'elite' still fails to get that.

Any prolongation of the war will lead to more losses of land to Russia. Will it take the fall of Odessa for the Europeans to be finally ready for talks?

There are still dreams of 'security guarantees' which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.

No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.

Failing that no European battalions strewn over Ukraine could prevent or even hinder another special military operation.

The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that:

The United States has sent European governments a set of questions about what they would need from the U.S. in order to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that Washington "has been clear that we expect European partners to take the lead in establishing a durable security framework and look forward to their proposals."

Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:

Cont. reading: U.S. Questions For European Governments - Another Wake-up Call

Posted by b at 15:04 UTC | Comments (310)

February 16, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-034

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:23 UTC | Comments (134)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-033

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 14:23 UTC | Comments (254)

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-032

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Arnaud Bertrand - @RnaudBertrand - 15:28 UTC · Feb 15, 2025

Extremely interesting proposal by Wang Yi in his speech that I haven't seen anyone talk about yet: he proposed to merge the Belt and Road Initiative with Europe's own version of it.
That's the quote: "China is willing to synergize high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with the European Union’s Global Gateway strategy, so as to empower each other and empower the entire world."
Europe should really consider it. ...

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-032

Posted by b at 13:34 UTC | Comments (177)

February 15, 2025

NYT Prints Lie - Adds Link Which Debunks It

As part of reading up on the JD Vance speech I stumbled over an outrageously arrogant attempt of reader manipulation in the New York Times.

Vance Tells Europeans to Stop Shunning Parties Deemed Extreme (archived) - NY Times, Feb 14 2025

As it didn't fit elsewhere this now gets its own thread. The quote in question:

[Vance] poured scorn on the decision in “remote Romania,” as he called it, to cancel a presidential election because of clear evidence of Russian manipulation of the political campaign.

bigger

The phrase "because of clear evidence of Russian manipulation" caught my interest because I was sure that there had been no evidence at all for this.

But the authors seem to be sure and provide a link to their source. It is, not astonishingly, another NYT piece but from a different author:

A Canceled Vote in Romania Hands Russia a Propaganda Coup (archived) - NY Times, Dec 23 2024

So what is the "clear evidence" presented therein?

The constitutional court justified its surprising decision to restart Romania’s election from scratch largely on the basis of declassified intelligence reports pointing to possible meddling by Russia and evidence that a flood of TikTok videos supporting Mr. Georgescu, the ultranationalist candidate, “could have been coordinated by a state actor.”
...
The intelligence documents released publicly by Romania provided no evidence of a Russian role, only the observation that “Russia has a history of interfering in the electoral processes of other states” and vague claims that what happened in Romania was “similar” to well-documented Russian election interference in neighboring Moldova.

Questions over whether Russia really had played a significant role intensified last week after a respected investigative news outlet reported that a TikTok campaign that ended up helping the ultranationalist candidate had initially been paid for by a centrist party, possibly in order to take votes away from another far-right candidate.

The authors of yesterday's piece who claim that there was "clear evidence of Russian manipulation" in Romania point, as proof for their claims, to a piece that says the exact opposite. That there was no evidence at all of anything Russian in that advertisement purchase on TicToc but that there was evidence that a then ruling Romanian party had paid for it.

Yesterday's "news" piece in question is thereby not a report. It is not even editorialized or manipulative writing. It is outright lying. Stupid lying moreover as it links to a source that is clearly debunking the claim.

Do they really wonder why trust in the media sticks around a record low?

---
Aside from that is there any evidence that social media advertisement, be it on TicToc of Facebook, can influence elections? I very much doubt that. If it does work why couldn't Kamala Harris, who spent $300 million more than Trump did, win the election?

Posted by b at 18:07 UTC | Comments (98)

Vance Criticizes Europe In Fierce Speech

The 2007 speech by Russia's President Vladimir Putin at the Munich Security Conference was one for the ages.

Concepts mentioned therein are only now getting acknowledged:

It is well known that international security comprises much more than issues relating to military and political stability. It involves the stability of the global economy, overcoming poverty, economic security and developing a dialogue between civilisations.

This universal, indivisible character of security is expressed as the basic principle that “security for one is security for all”.
...
The unipolar world that had been proposed after the Cold War did not take place either.
...
It is world in which there is one master, one sovereign. And at the end of the day this is pernicious not only for all those within this system, but also for the sovereign itself because it destroys itself from within.
...
There is no reason to doubt that the economic potential of the new centres of global economic growth will inevitably be converted into political influence and will strengthen multipolarity.

Eighteen years later the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the fact of a multipolar world. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demolished any hope for Ukraine to enter NATO. Donald Trump, by calling President Putin, accepted the concept of a shared if not yet indivisible security. In 2007 Putin also spoke out against the abuse of so called NGOs to manipulate foreign countries' internal policies. Trump has now stopped USAID and NED from financing these.

Eighteen years on the core concepts of Putin's speech have thus been accepted.

Yesterday another speech at the Munich Security Conference was given by U.S. Vice-President JD Vance (video, transcript). It will also echo for years to come:

Cont. reading: Vance Criticizes Europe In Fierce Speech

Posted by b at 12:57 UTC | Comments (399)

February 14, 2025

Trump Calls For Trilateral Arms Reduction - Party On 80th Victory Day?

U.S. post-cold war supremacy is unsustainable when countered by an alliance of Russia and China. The U.S. foreign policy swamp has no common opinion on how to handle this.

One faction is arguing that supremacy is unsustainable. It calls for accepting a multi-polar world in which the big three - Russia, China and the U.S. - agree to avoid fighting each other while partitioning the globe into dedicated zones of interests. Minor conflicts would proceed on the borders but there would be by and large peace.

A second faction wants to sustain U.S. supremacy by defeating Russia before taking on China. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, with their attacks on Russia, were pushing into this direction.

A third faction thinks that splitting Russia and China and to thereby neutralize (or even ally with) Russia before starting a conflict with China is the better way to proceed.

The Trump administration is clearly moving towards the third option but keeps the potential of the first option in mind.

The well choreographed events over the last days show that this is an operation with big aims in mind.

Trump started by removing the biggest roadblock for peace in Ukraine which was the threat of accepting Ukraine into NATO. That worm though is still wiggling.

Press conference by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine - NATO, Oct 03 2024

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte - Well, first on NATO and membership. And as you know, at the last NATO Summit, which took place in Washington in July this year, Allies agreed, and this is important, that Ukraine's path to membership is irreversible.
...
And I think the day will come that Ukraine is a full member of NATO. And let me add to that, if somebody might think otherwise, that Russia on this issue has no vote and no veto.

Interruption:

Hegseth rules out NATO membership for Ukraine - CNN, Feb 12 2025

Trump: not practical for Ukraine to join NATO, get back all land - Reuters, Feb 12 2025

Wiggling:

Cont. reading: Trump Calls For Trilateral Arms Reduction - Party On 80th Victory Day?

Posted by b at 11:08 UTC | Comments (433)

February 13, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-031

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 15:51 UTC | Comments (179)

Ukraine - The Beginning Of The End (Which Is Yet Far Away)

Trump's opening gambit in the negotiations with Russia about Ukraine has caused some waves.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the borderland, i.e. Ukraine, will have to give up territory to Russia. There will be no place for Ukraine in NATO. The U.S. will give no security guarantees to Ukraine. Neither the U.S. military nor NATO will take part in any peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

With that the U.S. conceded to Russia two of its main requests. Four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea will become parts of Russia. NATO enlargement towards the east has been stopped. Any U.S. deployment to Ukraine is, for now, out of question.

The devil however is in the details. Russia will want legal agreements and guarantees. It knows that these might (again) be broken but it is still be better to have those than none.

There is also no agreement at all, when, where and how the fighting might stop.

The Trump administration wants an immediate ceasefire along the current line of contact. For Russia this just a repeat of Minsk 1 and 2 agreements which were used to prop up Ukraine. It is not a sufficient solution.

The Russian readout of yesterday's Trump-Putin call says:

Donald Trump spoke in favour of stopping the hostilities as soon as possible and solving the crisis peacefully.

In turn, Vladimir Putin pointed out it was necessary to eliminate the root causes of the conflict.

Trump wants a ceasefire, Putin wants more.

The question of NATO membership for Ukraine is only one element of the root causes of the conflict. What is necessary to conclude the war is a long lasting indivisible European security structure in which every major country can feel save and secure.

In late 2021 Russia presented two papers to the U.S. and NATO which point to potential solutions. Discussions on those have not even started. This will be a long process.

Unless a structure of indivisible security in Europe is found and agreed upon Russia will have to use military means to guarantee security for itself and its allies. Its Special Military Operation is likely to continue until that objective has been achieved.

There is no sign that Trump has recognized the larger issue at hand and is willing to talk about it. When he finds out that there is no short term solution - a ceasefire - to have, he might want to dump the whole issue and ignore the outcome: "Let Europe take care ..."

When the Biden administration provoked and executed the proxy war against Russia, major European countries ignored their own interest and behaved like U.S. vassals. They now make noise about being left out of the peace process.

Well, if you behave like vassals and ignore your own interest why are you astonished when you are treated like vassals and have your own interests ignored? Grow some balls and fight for your interests. Then maybe, just maybe, other will also start to keep your interests in mind.

Posted by b at 15:51 UTC | Comments (289)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-030

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:51 UTC | Comments (185)