Moon of Alabama

March 18, 2025

Ever Predicted, Never Happening: Russia's Collapse

Badmouthing Russia's economy has a certain tradition:

Russia's Collapse - Foreign Affairs, Sep 1, 1999
Russia Is Finished - The Atlantic, May 2001
The Russian Economic Crisis - CFR, Apr 2010

Since the start of the Special Military operation in Ukraine many outlets joined the above doomsayers of the foreign policy blob.

Since then most reports about Russia's economy predicted a collapse or at least severe difficulties. Here are some from just the previous six months:

Russia's economy is signaling a fate worse than recession - Business Insider, Sep 26 2024
Humiliation for Putin as Russia could plunge into 'economic collapse' to plug £30bn debt - Express, Oct 7 2024
Putin's Economy Approaches 'Burnout Point' - Newsweek, Oct 8 2024
Russia’s economy is overheating but Putin cannot change course - Atlantic Council, Oct 31, 2024
Russia’s War Economy Is Hitting Its Limits - Foreign Policy, Nov 14 2024
Russia’s economy is doomed - New Statesman, Nov 28 2024
Russian rouble collapse exposes deep problems in the country’s economy - The Conservation, Dec 3 2024
The Russian Economy Remains Putin’s Greatest Weakness - Foreign Affairs, Dec 9, 2024
Russia’s war economy spirals out of control as 2025 brings looming stagnation - NZZ, Jan 7 2025
Is 2025 the year that Russia’s economy finally freezes up under sanctions? - Atlantic Council, Jan 8 2025
Russia’s war economy is a house of cards (archived) - Financial Times, Jan 13 2025
Putin's war economy is running on fumes as inflation and shortages surge - Kyiv Independent, Jan 15 2025
Don’t Blink Now, Trump. Russia’s Economy Is Cracking. - Bloomberg, Feb 10 2025
Russia’s economy is stagnating – but that won’t force it to end the war - The Conservation, Mar 10 2025
The Russian economy is on the brink of collapse and Putin knows it - Independent, Mar 13 2025
Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace - Reuters, Mar 17 2025

Meanwhile the Russian economy is doing well. Its economy is growing faster than most other.

Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF - BBC, Apr 16 2024
IMF raises forecast for growth in Russia's GDP by 0.1 pp in 2025 - Interfax, Jan 17 2025

The lesson from this? Much of what one reads in mainstream media about Russia (and other so called enemies) is garbage.

Posted by b at 16:00 UTC | Comments (129)

March 17, 2025

Trump Bombs Yemen (Short Take)

(The system is acting up on my thus just this short take.)

Fresh US strikes in Yemen with 53 now dead, Houthis say - BBC

Thoughts:

Bombing Yemen is stupid. The Saudis tried for years to get their way by doing that and were defeated.
Yemen can and does shoot back.
It is only a question of time until it hits a U.S. war ship and causes casualties.
Then Trump will be hard pressed to escalate the war towards Iran.
Iran can not be defeated.

That's it.

Posted by b at 18:20 UTC | Comments (374)

March 16, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-055

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:49 UTC | Comments (192)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-054

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 14:48 UTC | Comments (376)

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-053

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Mar 10 - Gordon Hahn On Europe's Role And A Possible Coup In Kiev
Mar 11 - The Pipeline Raid Of Sudzha
Mar 12 - Trump Opts For More War With Russia
Mar 14 - Echoes Of The May 2 2014 Odessa Massacre
Mar 15 - NATO Sec.-Gen. On Ukraine Accession
Related:
- Zelensky’s Kursk gamble: Was it worth it? - Telegraph
- Can Trump’s Ukraine peace plan succeed? - Canadian Dimension
- NATO-Russia Ukrainian War Ceasefire: To Be Or Not To Be? - Gordon Hahn

- Inside Ukraine's desperate fight to stabilize Donbas front (video) - Kyiv Independent
- Ukraine War Day #1116: The Timely Death Of A Nazi Racketeer – Part I, Part 2 - Awful Avalanche
- Hungary to hold special referendum on Ukraine’s EU membership - Anadolu
- German intelligence chief Kahl believes Europe would be better off "if the war in Ukraine lasted another five years" – NSDC responds - Espreso.tv

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-053

Posted by b at 14:48 UTC | Comments (110)

March 15, 2025

NATO Sec.-Gen. On Ukraine Accession

Took him a while ...

NATO chief Mark Rutte says Ukraine's membership path is 'irreversible' - UPI / Yahoo, Oct 3 2024

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before," he said. "And will continue on this path until you become a member of our Alliance. I very much look forward to that day."

Ukraine's accession to NATO is no longer under consideration, Rutte confirmed - news-pravda, Mar 14, 2025

Ukraine's accession to NATO is no longer under consideration, Rutte confirmed
When asked whether Trump was really removing the issue of Kyiv joining the alliance from the negotiating table, the NATO Secretary General answered “yes.”

Posted by b at 14:52 UTC | Comments (317)

March 14, 2025

Echoes Of The May 2 2014 Odessa Massacre

On May 4 2014 I wrote about the February coup aftermath in Ukraine:

Two days ago a mob, supported by the fascists Right Sektor, killed over 30 federalist Ukrainians in Odessa by pushing them from their camp into a building and then setting fire to it. Those who escaped the massacre, not the perpetrators, were rounded up by police. Today pro-federalism people besieged the police headquarter in Odessa until the police released those it had earlier arrested.
...
The U.S. plan for Ukraine seems to be to bait Russia into an occupation. This would destroy EU-Russia relations, embolden NATO and help the U.S. to keep the EU as a secondary partner under its control. There would be lots of economic upsides for the U.S. in such a situation. Selling more arms and increasing energy market shares are only the starters.
There are two reasons to believe that this plan will fail:
...
Without Russian intervention and without German support the U.S. campaign against Russia is unlikely to reach its secondary target of isolating Russia. The primary target, Sevastopol harbor in Crimea, was already lost when Russia reunified with the island.

What is left to do then for Washington is to create more chaos in Ukraine and to hope that somehow out of total chaos some new chance may arise to stick it to Russia. For lack of real direction that strategy is also unlikely to succeed.

I was unfortunately wrong with the last sentence though it took the U.S. eight more years to succeed.

But it is the first paragraph I what to refer to today. The current two most popular pieces on the website of Strana are echoing it (machine translation):