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February 01, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-27

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 15:52 UTC | Comments (226)

Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2023-26

News & views (not related to the war in Ukraine) ...

Posted by b at 15:51 UTC | Comments (63)

January 31, 2023

NATO Continues Its Disarmament

NATO is continuing its disarmament mission.

France to send an extra 12 powerful Caesar howitzers to Ukraine

French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu's announcement that France will send 12 additional Caesar howitzers to Kyiv is "clearly important for the Ukrainians, particularly the Caesar artillery system", said FRANCE 24 Chief Foreign Editor Robert Parsons.
...
"They've been very successful in Ukraine, so the Ukrainians will be delighted, I am sure, to get another 12. I think that brings that total to over 40 now, closing on 50 Caesars in Ukraine.

France has only 77 Caesar howitzer left. Others though are worse off.

Estonia Sending All Its 155-mm Howitzers to Ukraine

Estonia will donate all its 155-millimeter howitzers to Ukraine as part of its most extensive military assistance yet.

The package, previously reported to be worth 113 million euros ($122 million), is expected to boost Kyiv’s defense capabilities amid continuing Russian aggression.

Estonia currently operates 24 NATO standard FH-70 towed howitzers.

Apart from the howitzers, Tallinn will send thousands of 155-mm artillery shells and hundreds of Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers.

We know how all that artillery will end.

Cont. reading: NATO Continues Its Disarmament

Posted by b at 18:02 UTC | Comments (384)

January 30, 2023

Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine

A European financial research company has sent me one of their quarterly research letters. It is a 'contrarian review of political and military ramifications' of the war in Ukraine. It analyzes 'winners and losers' of the war.

It is contrarian only in the sense that it counters the false views of 'western' mainstream media with reality. The losers of the war are all on the 'western' side with the only two winners being the owners of the U.S. defense industry and Russia.

I was sent the courtesy copy because, as the company writes, the discussions at Moon of Alabama were "immensely helpful" in forming their view.

Note to the authors: You are welcome.

I will not quote from the paper as it seems to be a somewhat confidential business product. But I will steal two graphics from it that will help to understand the size of the war in Ukraine and how it will NOT end.

There have been theories that Poland or some U.S. led coalition force would intervene with their troops on the ground in Ukraine to 'kick the Russians out'.

The two graphics though dispel any hope for such an operation.

The following is an operational map of Desert Storm. The U.S. led operation in spring 1991 to kick Iraq out of Kuwait.

Cont. reading: Size Matters - On A U.S. Ground Intervention In Ukraine

Posted by b at 16:23 UTC | Comments (494)

January 29, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-25

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 15:01 UTC | Comments (345)

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-24

Last week's post on Moon of Alabama:

> Still, the evidence suggests Gonzalez acted alone, the judge wrote. He said the suspect's alleged actions showed his intent to alter the public peace and to give the impression they were carried out by people with ties with Russia as retribution for Spain's and the United States' support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of the country.

"There is no indication that the person under investigation belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organised group," the statement said. <

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2023-24

Posted by b at 14:56 UTC | Comments (187)

January 28, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-23

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 10:49 UTC | Comments (446)

Twitter Files Debunk Hamilton 68 Dashboard - (We Did The Same Five Years Ago)

The Twitter files continue to confirm our long held suspicion of nefarious anti-Russian influence in mainstream media.

When criticizing the recent fakenews about letter bombs in Spain spread by the New York Times I asserted:

The New York Times, as well as British media with their equally stupid Skripal affair claims, can be credited with giving cover for the anti-Russian propaganda campaign. It was unleashed after, in 2014, Russia reintegrated Crimea and foiled British and U.S. plans for stationing their naval forces in the Azov and Black Sea.
The Times and other media should be held responsible for the deadly consequences its misreporting and lies have caused.

Six days ago the New York Times attributed the letter bombs in Spain to Russian secret service based on 'U.S. officials' assertions. Yesterday the Spanish investigating magistrate refuted those claims:

[T]he evidence suggests Gonzalez acted alone, the judge wrote. He said the suspect's alleged actions showed his intent to alter the public peace and to give the impression they were carried out by people with ties with Russia as retribution for Spain's and the United States' support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of the country.

"There is no indication that the person under investigation belongs to or collaborates with any terrorist gang or organised group," the statement said.

The letter bomb campaign, as well as the New York Times false assertions about them, were both part of the public anti-Russia campaign.

The campaign, launched in 2014, was reinforced after the 2016 election when the losing candidate, Hillary Clinton, blamed 'Russian influence' for her loss instead of her own ineptitude for any higher government position.

Soon a horde of 'disinformation de-bunking' institutes and lobbies evolved. They all claimed to have some insight into 'Russia's influence campaign' that was allegedly designed to deceive U.S. voters. 'Russiagate', the MI6 operation that created the Steele dossier and the false narratives around it, grew on top of that. Partisan actors in the FBI and CIA jumped in to amplify that stuff despite knowing well that it was nonsense. Irresponsible media sucked it all up and spread it further without any fact checking or logical thought. For so called mainstream journalists it was all easy work that brought in good money.

One of the organization involved in this was the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a part of the the German Marshall Fund (which has by the way little to do with Germany). It created the 'Hamilton 68 dashboard' which listed trending hashtags used by some 600 Twitter accounts which it alleged were 'Russian bots'.

Based on the dashboard mainstream media produced hundreds of stories about trending hashtags that allegedly furthered Russian influence.

But, as I exposed in February 2018, there was nothing there. Just like 'Russiagate' it was just another great scam.

As I wrote at that time:

Cont. reading: Twitter Files Debunk Hamilton 68 Dashboard - (We Did The Same Five Years Ago)

Posted by b at 10:46 UTC | Comments (102)

January 27, 2023

Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

RAND Corp is a government and industry financed large research institute. Founded shortly after the end of the second world war it mostly works for the Pentagon by developing policies and strategies.

In April 2019 RAND published a report about Extending Russia (pdf).


bigger

The report summary explained its purpose:

As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia's economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options).

RAND developed policy options in those four fields. It then evaluated their benefit, cost and risks as well as their likelihood of success.

Here is their summary table for economic measures:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - RAND Study Sees Risks In Prolonged War

Posted by b at 16:57 UTC | Comments (278)

January 26, 2023

Ukraine Open Thread 2023-22

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b at 8:18 UTC | Comments (528)