Syria - Winners And Losers Or Both

Syria has fallen.

It is now highly likely that the country will fall apart. Outside and inside actors will try to capture and/or control as many parts of the cadaver as each of them can.

Years of chaos and strife will follow from that.

Israel is grabbing another large amount of Syrian land. It has taken control of the Syrian city of Quneitra, along with the towns of Al-Qahtaniyah and Al-Hamidiyah in the Quneitra region. It has also advanced into the Syrian Mount Hermon and is now positioned just 30 kilometers from (and above) the Syrian capital.

It is also further demilitarizing Syria by bombing every Syria military storage site in its reach. Air defense positions and heave equipment are its primary targets. For years to come Syria, or whatever may evolve from it, will be completely defenseless against outside attacks.

Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold.

The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state  "from the river to the sea".

Turkey has had and has a big role in the attack on Syria. It is financing and controlling the 'Syrian National Army' (previously the Free Syrian Army), which it is mainly using to fight Kurdish separatists in Syria.

There are some 3 to 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey which the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan wants, for domestic political reasons, to return to Syria. The evolving chaos will not permit that.

Turkey had nurtured and pushed the al-Qaeda derived Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take Aleppo. It did not expect it to go any further. The fall of Syria is now becoming a problem for Turkey as the U.S. is taking control of it. Washington will try to use HTS for its own interests which are, said mildly, not necessary compatible with whatever Turkey may want to do.

A primary target for Turkey are the Kurdish insurgents within Turkey and their support from the Kurds in Syria. Organized as the Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds are sponsored and controlled by the United States. The SDF are already fighting Erdogan's SNA and any further Turkish intrusion into Syria will be confronted by them.

The SDF, supported by the U.S. occupation of east-Syria, is in control of the major oil, gas and wheat fields in the east of the country. Anyone who wants to rule in Damascus will need access to those resources to be able to finance the state.

Despite having a $10 million award on its head HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is currently played up by western media  as the unifying and tolerant new leader of Syria. But his HTS is itself a coalition of hardline Jihadists from various countries. There is little left to loot in Syria and as soon as those resources run out the fighting within HTS will begin. Will al-Golani be able to control the sectarian urges of the comrades when these start to plunder the Shia and Christian shrines of Damascus?

During the last years Russia was less invested in the Assad government than it seemed. It knew that Assad had become a mostly useless partner. The Russia Mediterranean base in Khmeimim in Latakia province is its springboard into Africa. There will be U.S. pressure on any new leadership in Syria to kick the Russians out. However any new leadership in Syria, if it is smart, will want to keep the Russians in. It is never bad to have an alternative choice should one eventually need one. Russia may well stay in Latakia for years to come.

With the fall of Syria Iran has lost the major link in its axis of resistance against Israel. Its forward defenses, provided by Hizbullah in Lebanon, are now in ruins.

As the former General Wesley Clark reported about a talk he once had in the Pentagon:

"This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.”

Six of the seven countries mentioned in that famous memo have by now been thrown into chaos. Iran is -so far- the sole survivor of those plans. It will urgently have to further raise its local defenses. It is high time now for it to finally acquire real nuclear weapons.

The incoming Trump administration sees China as its major enemy. By throwing Syria (and Ukraine) into chaos the outgoing Biden administration has guaranteed that Trump will have to stay involved in the Middle East (and eastern Europe).

The massive U.S. 'Pivot to Asia' will again have to wait. This gives China more time to build its sphere of influence. It may well be the only power that has been a winner in this.

Palestine Open Thread 2024-295

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Ukraine Open Thread 2024-294

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The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-293

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Dec 2 - Why Did Joe Biden Pardon His Son?
  Related:
  - We haven’t seen a pardon as sweeping as Hunter Biden’s in generations - Politico

• Dec 3 - Mirror Action - China To Block 'Dual Use' Exports To U.S. War Mongers
  Related:
  - How America’s War on Chinese Tech Backfired - Foreign Affairs
  - US blasts China’s export ban on key minerals, vows ‘necessary steps’ - SCMP
  - Could Chinese Control Over Strategic Minerals Coupled with US Corruption Cripple US War Machine? - Naked Capitalism

• Dec 3 - South Korea - President Launches Putsch Against Parliament
• Dec 4 - South Korea - Majority Wins As President's Putsch Fails
  Related:
  - Reprieve for South Korea’s Yoon as ruling party boycotts martial law impeachment vote - SCMP
  - Interior Minister Lee Sang-min offers to step down amid martial law turmoil - Korea Times
  - President under investigation as 'suspect' for treason, abuse of power - Korea Times
  - S. Korea Pres. Yoon to step aside before resigning: party head - Kyodonews

• Dec 6 - U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia
  Related:
  - The Missile Will Always Get Through. But who is prepared to admit it? - Aurelien
  
  - ‘Unlimited’ enemy troops, no sleep: Ukrainian soldiers fight to hold on to Russia’s Kursk region - CNN
  - Ukraine’s exhausted troops in Russia told to cling on and wait for Trump - BBC
  - Will Trump Channel Nixon in Ukraine? - American Conservative
    There are indications that the president-elect may intend further escalation.

• Dec 7 - Craig Murray - The End of Pluralism in the Middle East
• Dec 8 - Syria Falls
  Related:
  - Erdogan’s Idlib shock shadows “Kursk” - Alastair Crooke /SCF
  
  - Lebensraum Needed for Israel’s Exploding Population (archived) - Times of Israel
  - Amnesty International Investigation Concludes Israel Is Committing Genocide - Zeteo
  - The White House Gave Israel Coordinates to Save an American’s Family. Then Israel Bombed Them Again. - Intercept

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-293

Syria Falls

I have yet to fully understand how this could happened at the speed it did happen:

Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family - AP, Dec 8 2024

BEIRUT (AP) — The Syrian government fell early Sunday in a stunning end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family after a sudden rebel offensive sprinted across government-held territory and entered the capital in 10 days.

Syrian state television aired a video statement by a group of men saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free.
...
Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government.

“I am in my house and I have not left, and this is because of my belonging to this country,” Jalili said in a video statement. He said he would go to his office to continue work in the morning and called on Syrian citizens not to deface public property.

He did not address reports that Assad had fled.

During and after its fight against takfiri terrorists Syria had come under heavy sanctions. Its main assets in the east were under U.S. control. Israel's airforce was bombing its military infrastructure at will. It was ripe to fall.

As soon as the bogus ceasefire in Lebanon was signed Turkey unleashed its takfiri 'Syrian rebels', many of them foreigners, against Syria. These were exceptionally well armed and trained. They have (vid) night vision equipment, drones, artillery, Starlink communication and a capable, professional command.

The Syrian Arab army proved to be unreliable. Some units just vanished. Others were ordered to retreat in haste even before coming under pressure. One wonders how much of its command level has been infiltrated or bribed.

Throughout the last months Syria's allies, Iran and Russia, had sought to negotiate a compromise between the opposition and the Assad government. In the end they were unable to overcome the stubbornness of Bashar Assad. They perceived that they were being drawn into a trap and rejected to fall for it.

Syria is now likely to fall apart. There will be many bloody acts retributions. A large number of people will seek refuge.

The 'axis of resistance' has lost its main connecting rod. Logistics between Iran and Lebanon will become very difficult.

Resistance however will continue.

A few tweets that caught my eyes:

Cont. reading: Syria Falls

Craig Murray - The End of Pluralism in the Middle East

by Craig Murray
Republished from craigmurray.org.uk

A truly seismic change in the Middle East appears to be happening very fast. At its heart is a devil’s bargain – Turkey and the Gulf States accept the annihilation of the Palestinian nation and creation of a Greater Israel, in return for the annihilation of the Shia minorities of Syria and Lebanon and the imposition of Salafism across the Eastern Arab world.

This also spells the end for Lebanon and Syria’s Christian communities, as witness the tearing down of all Christmas decorations, the smashing of all alcohol and the forced imposition of the veil on women in Aleppo now.

Yesterday US Warthog air-to-ground jets attacked and severely depleted reinforcements which were, at the invitation of the Syrian government, en route to Syria from Iraq. Constant, daily Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s military infrastructure for months have been a major factor in the demoralisation and reduced capacity of the Syrian government’s Syrian Arab Army, which has simply evaporated in Aleppo and Hama.

It is very difficult to see the tide turning in Syria. The Russians now have either to massively reinforce their Syrian bases with ground troops or to evacuate them. Faced with the exigencies of Ukraine, they may do the latter, and it is reported that the Russian navy has already set sail from Tartus.

The speed of collapse of Syria has taken everybody by surprise. If the situation does not stabilise, Damascus could be besieged and ISIS back on the hills above the Bekaa valley within a week, given the speed of their advance and the short distances involved.

Cont. reading: Craig Murray - The End of Pluralism in the Middle East

U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia

As further ATACMS strikes on Russia seem to have stopped this timeline is of interest.

November 18:

U.S. allows Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia:

The reversal of policy, nearly 1,000 days since Russia started its full-scale invasion on Ukraine, comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops to supplement its forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision told Reuters.

[Note: There is no evidence that any North Korean troops were deployed by Russia anywhere near Ukraine.]

November 19 and November 20/21:

Ukraine hits an ammunition depot in Russia's Bryansk Oblast, far from any relevant frontline, as well as military facilities in Russia's Kursk oblast:

On November 19, six ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles produced by the United States, and on November 21, during a combined missile assault involving British Storm Shadow systems and HIMARS systems produced by the US, attacked military facilities inside the Russian Federation in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
...
The fire at the ammunition depot in the Bryansk Region, caused by the debris of ATACMS missiles, was extinguished without casualties or significant damage. In the Kursk Region, the attack targeted one of the command posts of our group North. Regrettably, the attack and the subsequent air defence battle resulted in casualties, both fatalities and injuries, among the perimeter security units and servicing staff.

November 21:

Russia fires a new missile with hypersonic kinetic warheads at a military industrial complex in Dnipro:

Cont. reading: U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia

Palestine Open Thread 2024-292

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Ukraine Open Thread 2024-291

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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-290

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This currently makes the rounds:

A Giant of Journalism Gets Half its Budget From the U.S. Government - Ryan Grim / Drop Site News, Dec 2 2024

OCCRP works with dozens of major newspapers to collaboratively publish the kinds of scoops you’re well aware of, such as the Panama Papers or the Pandora Papers. What we can reveal today is that the single largest funder of OCCRP is the U.S. State Department.

Duh ...

Selective Leaks Of The #PanamaPapers Create Huge Blackmail Potential - Moon of Alabama, Apr 4 2016

A real leak of data from a law firm in Panama would be very interesting. Many rich people and/or politicians hide money in shell companies that such firms in Panama provide. But the current heavily promoted "leak" of such data to several NATO supporting news organization and a US government financed "Non Government Organization" is just a lame attempt to smear some people the U.S. empire dislikes. It also creates a huge blackmail opportunity by NOT publishing certain data in return for this or that desired favor.
...
A year ago someone provided tons of data from Mossak Fonseca to a German newpaper, the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. The Munich daily is politically on the center right and staunchly pro NATO. It cooperates with the Guardian, the BBC, Le Monde, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists and some other news organization who are all known supporters of the establishment.
...
The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) is part of the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) which is financed by the U.S. government through USAID.

The "leak" is of data selected by U.S. friendly organization out of a database, likely obtained by U.S. secret services, which can be assumed to include much dirt about "western" persons and organizations.

...