The War On Afghanistan Is Lost But The U.S. Still Tries To Keep A Foot In Its Door

The Afghan government forces the U.S. had trained are quickly losing the fight against the Taliban. The U.S. has promised a complete retreat from Afghanistan. But it has now a plan to keep a foot in the door by staying in control of Kabul's international airport. That plan is likely to fail.

When the Soviet troops left Afghanistan the government forces they had supported held out for three more years. Then the Soviets cut off all while the U.S. continued to support the various Pashtun warlords and Mujahedin. Without Soviet resupply the government forces had to give up. Now the U.S. occupation forces are leaving the country. But the government and the forces they are leaving behind are much less prepared to survive than the ones the Soviets had backed. The speed at which the Taliban are now taking over lets me assume that it will take only a few month until the Afghan government forces collapse completely.

Afghanistan has about 400 districts. The Taliban already controlled for some time more than 50% of the countryside but had usually refrained from taking the district centers. That has now changed. Between May 1 and June 14 this year the Taliban took control of 34 districts in Afghanistan. During the last week they added a dozen more, 4 of those on Sunday alone.

Remarkably a lot of the districts the Taliban took were not in primarily Pashtun regions but in the north where the population is often Uzbek, Tajik or from other ethnic minorities. Before the U.S. invasion those populations were often anti-Taliban.

Cont. reading: The War On Afghanistan Is Lost But The U.S. Still Tries To Keep A Foot In Its Door

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-047

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• June 14 - Corruption Is Profitable. But Does It Have To Be This Profitable?

• June 15 - Putin Teaching A Journalist And Other New Bits Around Ryanair Flight 4978
  Related:
  - Belarus yet to receive Ryanair aircraft instrumental data, data believed lost - Belta
  - Ryanair CEO says diverted flight had to land in Belarus -Yahoo

• June 15 - U.S., UK Information Warfare Behind Regime Change Drive In Belarus - by Kit Klarenberg
  Related:
  - Russia and Its Neighbors, Thirty Years after the Fall - Valdaiclub
  - The Good Nazis and Bad Nazis of Western Media - Patrick Armstrong / STF

• June 16 - Summit Summary
  Related:
  - Takeaways from Biden-Putin summit - Indian Punchline
  - The Strange Death of Liberal Russophobia - Ross Douthat / NYT
  - America is back — and wants everyone to focus on China - Financial Times

• June 17 - Reflections Of A Man And His Picture

• June 18 - U.S. Excluded China From International Space Projects - It Built Its Own
  Related:
  - Biden's China strategy: a chronology - Adam Tooze
  - Why Joe Biden has been forced to accept Russia and Germany’s energy relationship - New Statesman
  - Song Luzheng: Biden's first visit, Europe is the winner -What China Reads

• June 19 - Debunking A 'Chinese Defector' Story
  Related:
  - America's True Goals and Upcoming New Propaganda Push (vid) - Daniel Dumbrill

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-047

Debunking A 'Chinese Defector' Story

It is sad to see how much Col. Pat Lang's intelligence judgment has deteriorated.

Here he goes crazy over a story of an alleged Chinese high level defector who allegedly brought all kinds of materials with him:

This man, as Chinese counter-intelligence boss looked around the IC and decided that he was most likely to survive an internal leak if he defected to DIA. That means that in spite of the fact that DIA had an internal Chinese mole (recently arrested at DIA request by the FBI), the rest of the agencies are worse in the level in Chinese intelligence penetration not only of their analytic people but also of their operations staff. How do I know that? Material from the defector (Dong) would not normally be shared with analysts if it had his name in it. His identity would be held in operational channels.

Clearly, this man believes that; CIA. army intelligence, naval intelligence, USAF intelligence and all the rest are heavily penetrated. pl.

Lang took the defector story from Zerohedge.com which took it from Redstate.com where managing editor Jennifer Van Laar made it up by mixing her fantasies, a Freebacon report about Chinese students returning to the U.S. and a rumor about a defection reported by Spytalk:

Chinese-language anti-communist media and Twitter are abuzz this week with rumors that a vice minister of State Security, Dong Jingwei (董经纬) defected in mid-February, flying from Hong Kong to the United States with his daughter, Dong Yang.

Dong is, or was, a longtime official in China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS), also known as the Guoanbu. His publicly available background indicates that he was responsible for the Ministry’s counterintelligence efforts in China, i.e., spy-catching, since being promoted to vice minister in April 2018. If the stories are true, Dong would be the highest-level defector in the history of the People’s Republic of China.

The rumor is false.

How do I know?

I copied "vice minister of State Security, Dong Jingwei" into Google Translate with the output language set to Chinese (simplified). That results in this string: "国家安全部副部长董经纬". The big Chinese search engine is Baidu.com. After pasting the string into Baidu it delivered these results:

Cont. reading: Debunking A 'Chinese Defector' Story

U.S. Excluded China From International Space Projects - It Built Its Own

There was a time when the U.S. was open to international cooperation in space. It gained prestige and influence from these projects. But fear of competition from China and Russia have led to attempts to exclude these countries from international projects.

In May 2011 Congress banned scientific cooperation with China:

A two-sentence clause included in the U.S. spending bill approved by Congress a few weeks ago threatens to reverse more than three decades of constructive U.S. engagement with the People's Republic of China.
...
Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA), a long-time critic of the Chinese government who chairs a House spending committee that oversees several science agencies, inserted the language into the spending legislation to prevent NASA or the Office of Science and Technology Policy from using federal funds "to develop, design, plan, promulgate, implement or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company."

The European Space Agency as well as NASA were at that time favoring future cooperation with China on the International Space Station and on a planned Mars mission.

Since then other laws and sanctions have made the continuing cooperation with Russia on the International Space Station more difficult.

Banned from international space projects in which the U.S. is involved China went its own way. Ten years later it put a lander on the far side of the moon where the rover Yutu, the jade rabbit, is now pounding moon stones in his mortar to look for the elixir of life.

Last year China sent Tianwen, Heavenly Questions, and another rover named Zhurong, a god of fire, to Mars. It landed there in February:

"Tianwen-1 is going to orbit, land and release a rover all on the very first try, and coordinate observations with an orbiter," mission managers wrote before launch in the journal Nature Astronomy. "No planetary missions have ever been implemented in this way. If successful, it would signify a major technical breakthrough."

A week ago Zhurong, the fire god, took a selfie and sent it back to earth:

Cont. reading: U.S. Excluded China From International Space Projects - It Built Its Own

Reflections Of A Man And His Picture

On April 14 I learned that old time Moon of Alabama commentator anna missed, also known as Jack Chevalier, had died two weeks earlier. I wrote about it in

RIP Anna Missed:

Jack was an artist who lived on an island near Seattle. Jack contributed a lot to our discussions about the war the Bush gang waged on Iraq. He had been in Vietnam and could relate the ground reality.
...
The [picture] below is a gift anna missed sent to me back then. It's an oil painting on a thick piece of raw wood with small glass pellets sprinkled into it.

notebook #1

2008
9"x 16"x 1"
oil paint and glass pellets on wood
by anna missed
bigger

In May Jack's wife, Kelly, contacted me:

Cont. reading: Reflections Of A Man And His Picture

Open Thread 2021-046

News & views ...

Summit Summary

The results of the Putin-Biden summit today in Geneva seem to be thin. The meetings were expected to last for 4 to 5 hours but ended after little more than 2 hours.

During his press conference President Vladimir Putin said that the talks were constructive. He lauded Biden as very experienced politician and said that they had two hours of face time.

There were a few results:

• The ambassadors of both sides, who had been recalled from Washington and Moscow, will return to their posts.
• There will be new expert rounds about cybersecurity.
• There may be talks about an exchange of prisoners.
• There will be new rounds about security, which means strategic nuclear weapons.

A joint statement by both sides about Strategic Stability has been posted in Russian on the Kremlin site (machine translation):

...
Today we reaffirm our adherence to the principle that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and should never be unleashed.

To achieve these goals, Russia and the United States will soon launch a comprehensive bilateral dialogue on strategic stability, which will be substantive and energetic. Through this dialogue, we aim to lay the foundation for future arms control and risk mitigation measures.

That is a very important result and the upcoming talks will be interesting. The U.S. will have to end its Missile Defense Program if it wants limits on any of the new strategic weapon types Russia has introduced.

But the summit did not bring any further breakthroughs or new deals.

Putin answered at length several reporter questions about the Ukraine, human rights and the Arctic. He responded to critical questions by using legitimate whataboutism to reflect the issue onto the U.S. side.

On an aggressive question about Navalny by a U.S. journalist Putin explained that U.S. law designates Russia as an "enemy" and that the U.S. finances groups in Russia like Navalny's. He is a foreign agent. On top of that Navalny's organization has called for illegal demonstrations and riots. That made his organization an extremist one that now must be dissolved. Putin mentions that the participants of the Jan. 6  U.S. Capitol storming are now processed as criminals even as they only had political demands, were unarmed and mostly not violent.

On another question about alleged Russian political unpredictability Putin responded by listing all the arms control agreements the U.S. has left as well as the U.S. led coup in Ukraine which was executed even after then President Yanukovych had agreed to all opposition demands including new elections.

The press conference of the U.S. side has as of now not begun.

Altogether there was much less drama but also fewer results than the many previews had presumed.

U.S., UK Information Warfare Behind Regime Change Drive In Belarus

by Kit Klarenberg

Protesters in Minsk - bigger

The at-times fiery protests that raged across Belarus throughout 2020 had largely fizzled out by the time local activist and seeming neo-Nazi Roman Protasevich was dramatically arrested in May this year.

Now, the country has been catapulted back to the top of the mainstream news agenda, with new life breathed into controversial self-appointed President Svetlana Tikhanovskaya’s hitherto unheeded calls for Western leaders to recognize her as the legitimate Belarusian leader.

True to form though, not a single mainstream outlet has deigned to mention that for many years prior to the unrest’s eruption, London and Washington had funded, trained, and promoted the very elements that took to the streets in opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko.

“Not Worth People’s Blood”

In April 2019, the RAND Corporation—a U.S. government think-tank—published a report, Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.

It outlined “a range of possible means to extend Russia,” defined as “measures to bait Russia into overextending itself” in order to “undermine the regime’s stability.”

Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties and then “analyzes potential policy options to exploit them—ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily” along with “the likelihood that [these policy options] could be successfully implemented.”

Cont. reading: U.S., UK Information Warfare Behind Regime Change Drive In Belarus

Putin Teaching A Journalist And Other New Bits Around Ryanair Flight 4978

There are some new bits about the Ryanair flight 4978 which on May 23 landed in Belarus after having received a bomb threat. To recap:

On May 23 a bomb threat against a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania was emailed to airports and authorities in Lithuania, Belarus and Greece. It is not known who has sent the email. ...

Belarus Air Traffic Control, through whose airspace the plane was flying at that time, contacted the pilot, informed him of the threat and recommended landing the plane in Minsk. The pilot contacted Ryanair management and then decided to follow the advice. The plane landed at 10:15 utc (13:15 Belorussian time), the passengers disembarked and a lengthy bomb search was carried out. No bomb was found.
...
The passengers had to pass through passport controls. Two passengers were found to have outstanding arrest warrants against them and were detained. The other passengers flew to their original destination.
...
[J]ust an hour after the plane had landed [regime change agent] Frank Viacorka, who is followed by many 'blueticks' on Twitter, presented a narrative of the incident which strongly diverted from reality but allowed for a new push of the stalled regime change agenda.
...
The widely shared tweet and the ones following it implied that the Belorussian government ordered the plane down to arrest the regime change agent Protasevich.

When one looks into the details of the case it soon becomes obvious that the narrative is false.

The false narrative continues to be told by 'western' media. It has led, as its originators hoped, to the introduction of new sanctions against Belarus.

The case came up again during a recent interview by NBC with the Russian President Vladimir. The transcript and video are available here:

Cont. reading: Putin Teaching A Journalist And Other New Bits Around Ryanair Flight 4978

Corruption Is Profitable. But Does It Have To Be This Profitable?

Aduhlem, a drug that is supposed to slow Alzheimer's effects, had failed to show efficacy in two trials. It showed some reduction of plaques in the brain which may or may not be significant.

Ten of the eleven advisors of the Federal Drug Administration voted "no" when asked if there was enough evidence that the drug is useful. One voted "uncertain". Last week the FDA approved the drug and claimed that the plaques reduction effect is somewhat meaningful.

Three of the advisors resigned.

The cost per patient per year for the drug will be some $56,000. There are some 6 million people in the U.S. with Alzheimer's. Medicare and Medicaid, which will have to pay for the drug because it is FDA approved, will have to bear the costs. The company which makes the drug, Biogen, will gain ginormous profits from it. As will physicians who prescribe the drug, administer the infusions and bill 6% of the drug's price for it.

The above is a portrait of a deeply corrupt system in which all incentives are set in the wrong direction.

Now, corruption in national medical systems is not unusual and can be found all over the world. But what I find astonishing with the U.S. system is how little money companies like Biogen actually have to pay to get deals done that will make them billions.

The man who pushed for the FDA approval was no other than President Joe Biden. As the American Conservative, linked below, writes:

Less than two weeks prior to the approval, President Joe Biden said that “if we don’t do something about Alzheimer’s in America… every single [hospital bed] will be occupied in the next 15 years with an Alzheimer’s patient.” Guess which 2020 candidate was the largest recipient of campaign funds by a large margin from Biogen and affiliated parties? Joe Biden, with $76,241.

How cheap is that?

Within the next few years Biogen will make a million times more money than it paid to Joe Biden's campaign. Couldn't he have asked for 10%, 1% or an already cheap 0.01%? It would still have been a great deal for the company. But Biden is so downright cheap that he sold out for 0.000001% of Biogen's gain.

What a lowlife.

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Sources:

• If the FDA approves Biogen’s Alzheimer’s treatment, I won’t prescribe it - STAT
• Three experts resign as FDA advisers over approval of Alzheimer’s drug - Ars Technica
• Three F.D.A. Advisers Resign Over Agency’s Approval of Alzheimer’s Drug - New York Times
• ‘Simply unacceptable’: Alzheimer’s Association blasts Biogen over the price of its new medicine - STAT
• The Drug That Could Break American Health Care - Atlantic
• The Regulatory Capture of the FDA -
  The mega-profit pharmaceutical industry relies on connections with the agency tasked with regulating it. - American Conservative