Moon of Alabama

March 23, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-061

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 14:38 UTC | Comments (102)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-060

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 14:37 UTC | Comments (96)

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-059

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Mar 17 - Trump Bombs Yemen (Short Take)
Mar 19 - Trump Seeks Russian Support For War On Iran
Related:
- Is Israel the Deep State? - Sam Hussein
- Trump hypes up tensions with Iran - Indian Punchline
- Scoop: Trump's letter to Iran included 2-month deadline for new nuclear deal - Axios
- Trump & Putin Begin Addressing Cumulated Geo-Strategic Debris … Amidst Trump’s Ultimatum to Iran - Conflict Forums
- Trump Shouldn’t Follow Netanyahu’s Lead - Limitless support for the Israeli premier’s policies endangers American interests. - American Conservative

Mar 18 - Ever Predicted, Never Happening: Russia's Collapse
Related:
- Putin may well get what he wants in Ukraine - Aljazeerah
- Plenary session of RSPP Congress (Putin on Sanctions) - Kremlin.ru
- Russophobia At Peak! Why Europe Fears An “Existential Threat” From Russia & Is “Hell Bent” On Fighting Moscow? - Eurasian Times

Mar 19 - Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal
Mar 22 - How Zelenski Is Trying To Sabotage Trump's Negotiations With Russia
Related:
- Stepan Bandera's Sinister MI6 Alliance Exposed - Kit Klarenberg
- Will The Ukrainian Army Turn Its Bayonets on Kiev? - Gordon Hahn
- Brimming with weapons, Ukraine is a gunrunner’s paradise in waiting (archived) - The Times

- The Verkhovna Rada Committee approved a bill giving the National Guard the right to shoot people during rallies (in Russian) - Strana
- Peskov on contacts between Putin and Trump, the price of Zelensky's words and Europe. (in Russian) - Kommersant
- "There's only one way out of here — three or two hundred." Why do many Ukrainians not want to fight? Shura Burtin's report on the new fear of war that has gripped the whole country (in Russian) - Medusa

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2025-059

Posted by b at 14:35 UTC | Comments (59)

March 22, 2025

How Zelenski Is Trying To Sabotage Trump's Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine's (former) President Zelenski is trying to impede further talks between the U.S. and Russia. For this purpose he is avoiding to implement a temporary ceasefire an energy related targets as agreed on between President Trump and President Putin.

Zelenski does not like that deal. He continues to talk of a future ceasefire of all attacks on general infrastructure that may or may not happen in future while his army continues to attack Russian energy installations.

The Russian readout of the 150 minute phone call between the presidents includes this reference to an 'energy ceasefire':

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.

The U.S. readout is less clear on the issue. It says:

This conflict should never have started and should have been ended long ago with sincere and good faith peace efforts. The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

General infrastructure is a much wider field than energy infrastructure as it involves roads, bridges, public buildings etc. The much shorter U.S. readout is also not at all clear when the energy ceasefire should start even as Russia said that it already had started.

Trump then had a call with President Zelenski. The White House readout from that call says:

The two leaders also agreed on a partial ceasefire against energy. Technical teams will meet in Saudi Arabia in the coming days to discuss broadening the ceasefire to the Black Sea on the way to a full ceasefire.

This is way more compatible with the Russian view. The temporary ceasefire is about energy infrastructure. It is already ongoing. Further talks are only about expanding it.

This also consistent with the history of previous negotiations and agreements about a moratorium of attacks against energy infrastructure as documented here.

Steven Witkoff, Trump's negotiator in talks with Putin, also confirmed that the temporary ceasefire is about 'energy infrastructure' during an interview with Tucker Carlson (@55min).

Zelenski did not seem to agree with that view when he talked about his phone call with Trump (machine translation):

Cont. reading: How Zelenski Is Trying To Sabotage Trump's Negotiations With Russia

Posted by b at 17:09 UTC | Comments (246)

March 20, 2025

Palestine Open Thread 2025-058

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Posted by b at 11:40 UTC | Comments (394)

Ukraine Open Thread 2025-057

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Posted by b at 11:40 UTC | Comments (431)

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2025-056

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Posted by b at 11:39 UTC | Comments (329)

March 19, 2025

Trump Seeks Russian Support For War On Iran

The readouts from the U.S. and Russian side about yesterday's phone call between President Trump and President Putin has me concerned about the potential of another war in the Middle East.

The Russian readout has 674 words. It is quite specific about Ukraine issues. There is a two sentences paragraph about the Middle East:

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also addressed some other international issues, including the situation in the Middle East and in the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilise the situation in the crisis spots and establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security.

What those 'joint efforts' might be is not specified.

With just 227 words the U.S. readout is much shorter. There is much less on Ukraine. A whole one fourth of the readout is with concern to the Middle East:

The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.

Iran, not mentioned by the Russian's, is mentioned in the context of nuclear ('strategic') weapons.

Iran seems to be the next item on Trump's international meddling list.

Recently leaked documents point to major U.S. planning for a war with Iran. The suddenly renewed U.S. bombing of Yemen, despite no recent attacks by Ansarallah on international shipping, seem to be a provocation towards that:

Tehran has begun circling the wagons as a new phase is beginning in Trump’s foreign policies, with tensions rising steadily over the nuclear issue. The October deadline is drawing closer by the day for invoking the snapback clause in the JCPOA (2015 Iran nuclear deal) to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions will expire, and Iran’s enrichment programme, on the other hand, has apparently reached a point where it already has a stockpile to make “several” nuclear bombs, per the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran however has Russian and Chinese backing:

On March 14, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hosted a joint meeting in Beijing with the Russian and Iranian deputy foreign ministers where he proposed five points “on the proper settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue”, which, for all purposes endorsed Tehran’s stance. It was a resounding diplomatic victory for Iran.
Interestingly, the Beijing meeting was timed to coincide with the conclusion of a 6-day naval exercise at Iran’s Chabahar Port with the theme of Creating Peace and Security Together between the navies of Iran, Russia and China.
...
Moscow has lately waded into the Iran nuclear issue and is positioning itself for a mediatory role potentially. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently came out against attaching extraneous issues (eg., verifiable arrangements by Tehran to ensure the cessation of its support for resistance groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria) to the nuclear negotiations. Lavrov said frankly, “Such a thing is unlikely to yield results.”

Before the renewed bombing of Yemen Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Lavrov had their own phone call. The short U.S. readout said:

The Secretary informed Russia of U.S. military deterrence operations against the Iran-backed Houthis and emphasized that continued Houthi attacks on U.S. military and commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea will not be tolerated.

It did not mention that Russia spoke out against it:

The Russian Foreign Ministry, in a readout on Saturday, stated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Lavrov and informed him about the US decision to attack the Houthis. It said Lavrov, in response, “emphasised the need for an immediate cessation of the use of force and the importance of all parties engaging in political dialogue to find a solution that prevents further bloodshed.” Well, the shoe is on the other foot now, isn’t it?

Trump seems to believe that he can gain Russia's support, or at least its neutrality, in a futile conflict with Iran, by offering to end the U.S. proxy war in Ukraine.

Russia however seems to completely reject such plans.

Posted by b at 14:58 UTC | Comments (230)

Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal

The publicly known results of yesterday's telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's President Vladimir Putin are only minor:

In the run up to today's call, Donald Trump made a big deal of his conversation with Russia's Vladimir Putin.
But the results look like there's little to shout about.

The Russian president has given the US leader just enough to claim that he made progress towards peace in Ukraine, without making it look like he was played by the Kremlin.

Trump can point to Putin's pledge to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for 30 days. If that actually happens, it will bring some relief to civilians.

But it's nowhere near the full and unconditional ceasefire that the US wanted from Russia.

The length of the call, more than two hours, suggests that there were more items to talk about than just a ceasefire in Ukraine. However neither side has given more than a hints of what these items might have been.

The Russian pledge to immediately halt attacks on energy facilities is not new at all.

The Russian readout of yesterday's talk is explicitly mentioning a ceasefire on energy facilities:

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded favourably to the proposal and immediately gave the relevant order to the Russian troops.

The White House readout acknowledges the offer but does not confirm a date for its acceptance:

The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.

Ukraine seems to have not yet agreed to such a deal (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukraine Still Rejects Temporary, Energy Related Ceasefire Deal

Posted by b at 13:53 UTC | Comments (193)

March 18, 2025