Lysichansk Is Under Control Of The Russian Side

Lysichansk is now under control of the Russian side of the war.

This was reported by a Russian speaking journalist from the Lysichansk City Park (map) which is at the center of the city. There are a few locals around him who seem to be happy. There is no background noise of shooting or artillery fire or impacts in his report.

The Lugansk People’s Republic now has the entire territory of the Lugansk oblast under its control.

This comes only a week after the cauldron around Lysichansk began to close. Until a few hours ago there was still a chance to flee from Lysichansk but the only passable road was under Russian fire. It is not know yet how many made it out or how many gave up and were taken prisoners.

Some of those who retreated went to Siversk some 20 kilometer west of Lysichansk. That city will be the next bigger target in that campaign sector.

The speed of this operation was much faster than the one in Mariupol. That points to diminished capabilities and soldier motivation of the Ukrainian forces.

The now much shortened frontline frees up several battalion tactical groups on the Russian side which can now be refitted and rested to then move elsewhere.

Ukraine - The Bear Caught The Kraken By Using This Trick

This is the map that shows the historic development of Ukraine.

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Russia is, in my opinion, aiming at taking the pink and yellow parts which have predominantly Russian speaking populations. The most north- western pink oblast is Kharkov which is also the name of the oblast's main city. 

On March 1 the city was already under attack.

Cont. reading: Ukraine - The Bear Caught The Kraken By Using This Trick

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-100

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

No, NATO Will Not Get Ready For War

I had a good laugh when I read this nonsense:

NATO to boost troops on high alert to over 300,000 -Stoltenberg

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO will boost the number of troops on high alert by more than sevenfold to over 300,000, its secretary-general said on Monday, as allies prepared to adopt a new strategy describing Moscow as a direct threat four months into the Ukraine war.
...
Stoltenberg said NATO in future would have "well over 300,000" troops on high alert, compared to 40,000 troops that currently make up the alliance's existing quick reaction force, the NATO Response Force (NRF).

The new force model is meant to replace the NRF and "provide a larger pool of high readiness forces across domains, land, sea, air and cyber, which will be pre-assigned to specific plans for the defence of allies," a NATO official said.

NATO does not have 300,000 troops to put on high alert. The troops are controlled by member states and I see no willingness by any of them to shoulder the costs that a real high alert status would have. Units on high alert means that they fully manned with no one on vacation and with enough supplies ready to sustain weeks of battle. All of that costs money. Member states will instead designate existing units as 'high alert' ones and change nothing else in their usual equipment and training.

The statement is pure NATO public relations fluff. Stoltenberg did not even ask or inform member states before he made that announcement:

Cont. reading: No, NATO Will Not Get Ready For War

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-99

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-98

News & views (not related to Ukraine) ...

Another Zelensky Lie Debunked - White House Says Ukraine Must Give Up Territory

Yesterday I mentioned the burning shopping center in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, of which the Ukrainian president Zelensky falsely claimed that thousand people had been inside.

I asked:

Satellite pictures show that the shopping center is right next to the large Kredmash machine plant. Was that the real target of the attack with the shopping center being an unintended casualty?

It has now been confirmed that the answer to my question is 'yes'.

Today's report on the war by the Russian Defense Ministry says:

On June 27, in Kremenchug (Poltava region), Russian Aerospace Forces launched a high-precision air attack at hangars with armament and munitions delivered by USA and European countries at Kremenchug road machinery plant.

High-precision attack has resulted in the neutralisation of west-manufactured armament and munitions concentrated at the storage area for being delivered to Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass.

Detonation of the storaged munitions caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping centre next to the facilities of the plant.

Ahhh - "don't trust the Russians!" you say. Well, don't trust anyone I say, just scrutinize the facts.

Cont. reading: Another Zelensky Lie Debunked - White House Says Ukraine Must Give Up Territory

Newsbits on Ukraine - Lysichansk Cauldron, Civilian Damage, Reserve Troops, Russian 'Default'

This was the Lysichansk area on June 2022 with the Russian positions in red.

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This is the same area one week later.

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The distance between the red fronts above and below has shrunk to 8 kilometer (~5 miles). According to Russian source there are some 8,000 soldiers and militia left in Lysichansk.

The area between the Russian fronts is under full Russian artillery control with drones flying above seeing anyone who moves to escape from Lysichansk to Siversk on the left side of the map. A Washington Post report describes what happens to those who try:

Cont. reading: Newsbits on Ukraine - Lysichansk Cauldron, Civilian Damage, Reserve Troops, Russian 'Default'

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-97

Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...

The current open thread for other issues is here.

The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Jun 20 - Ukraine SitRep - Lysichansk Cauldron - Sinking Morale - More Provocations
• Jun 24 - Ukraine SitRep - Zolote Cauldron Closes - Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
  Related:
  - What do events in the Donbass have to do with Russian victory? - Thomas Bergman
  - Severodonetsk is not a Pyrrhic but a telling Russian victory - Asia Times
  - SCOTT RITTER: The Fantasy of Fanaticism - Consortiumnews

• Jun 21 - This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
  Related:
  - US ban on imports from China's Xinjiang region takes effect - BBC
  - We need a reset in US-China relations - Asia Times
  - US-China détente on the horizon - Indian Punchline
  - Interpreting history - Interview With Chas Freeman - Week in China
  - EU companies in China pay the price for Brussels stance on Xinjiang - SCMP

Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand - 1:19 UTC · Dec 15, 2021

> The new "Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act" that's about to be adopted by U.S. lawmakers might just be one of the most cynical pieces of U.S. legislation ever, and that's saying something.
A short 🧵
...
So here is a bill based on lies, presented as designed to "help people" when it in fact aims to destroy their livelihood, and to top it all will have disastrous effects on climate change. <

• Jun 22 - The Neocon's Dream - Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
• Jun 23 - Two Big Errors About Russia - By Helmholtz Smith
• Jun 26 - Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
  Related:
  - An Iron Curtain descends on Europe and the USA - Gilbert Doctorow
  - The Return of Industrial Warfare - RUSI

The U.S. is collaborating with Lithuania, but not with the EU, to provoke Russia. Lithuania issued false claims that EU sanctions force it to shut down Russian traffic to Kaliningrad. The U.S. issues 'leaks' about Lithuanian troops in Ukraine. All this for the purposes of baiting Russia into attacking a NATO country.

• Kamala Harris in Munich: We stand with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - Feb 19, 2022 - Estonian World
• EU sanctions against Russia explained - Consilium Europe
  "The ban does not affect mail services and goods in transit between Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia."
• Lithuania limits truck transit between Kaliningrad region, rest of Russia - regional authorities - Jun 21, 2022 - Interfax
• Lithuanians Stick New Finger in Eye of Russian Bear - Jun 21, 2022 - Antiwar
• Russian anger at Lithuania puts spotlight back on US troops in NATO battlegroup near Suwalki Gap - Jun 22, 2021 - Stripes
• European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad tensions - Jun 23, 2022 - Politico.eu
  Senior EU diplomats warn the situation is serious and could get worse, fast.
• Oped: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda: Now is the time to make NATO even stronger - Jun 23, 2022 - Washington Post
• Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say - Jun 26, 2022 - New York Times
  At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine.

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96