Open Thread 2021-93

With Vaccine Fairness China And Russia Are Beating The 'West'

For a moment I thought that I had caught the Associated Press in reporting a wrong number.

But in fact both headlines are right.

Xinhua - Xi announces supplying Africa with additional 1 bln COVID-19 vaccine doses, pledges to jointly implement nine programs 

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday announced that China would provide an additional 1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Africa and pledged to jointly implement nine programs on China-Africa future cooperation.
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To help the African Union (AU) achieve its goal of vaccinating 60 percent of the African population by 2022, President Xi announced that China would provide another one billion doses of vaccines to Africa, including 600 million doses as donation and 400 million doses to be provided through such means as joint production by Chinese companies and relevant African countries.

"In addition, China will undertake 10 medical and health projects for African countries, and send 1,500 medical personnel and public health experts to Africa," Xi added.

By Nov. 12, 2021, China had provided over 1.7 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines to more than 110 countries and organizations, including 50 African countries and the AU Commission.

Associated Press - China to donate 600 million COVID-19 vaccine doses to Africa 

China has pledged to donate 600 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccines to Africa as the world grapples with the unequal distribution of the shots between rich and poor countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping made the promise Monday in a video speech to the opening ceremony of a China-Africa forum on economic cooperation.

He said China will supply 1 billion doses in all. The other 400 million are to come through other routes such as production by Chinese companies in Africa.

Both headline can be justified. While Xinhua highlights the top number the AP emphasizes the donation.

China is putting the 'west' to shame with its donations and the additional vaccine doses it distributes. In exchange it will surely receive some good will:

Cont. reading: With Vaccine Fairness China And Russia Are Beating The 'West'

How NGOs And Newspapers In Germany Propagandize Chinese 'Querdenker' Zhang Zhan

Today a number of U.S. aligned non government organizations launched an anti-China campaign in Germany.

Reporters Without Boarders (RSF) led the campaign together with PEN, Amnesty International and a Germany journalist union. They called for an hour long tweet storm to demand of that German politicians should act to get the Chinese 'journalist' Zhang Zhan released from prison in China.

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The campaign was somewhat successful. A search for the #ZhangZhan hashtag used show that a lot of ill informed people, including many journalists, tweeted or retweeted the issue.

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The misinformation spread by Robin Alexander in the above tweet is pretty heavy but not unusual.

Zhang Zhan is not a journalist. She was not one of the first to post video from Wuhan. She did not report on the COVID-19 but protested against the successful lockdown. She is not in jail for that reason.

Cont. reading: How NGOs And Newspapers In Germany Propagandize Chinese 'Querdenker' Zhang Zhan

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-092

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Nov 22 - The White House Needs An Off-ramp From War In Ukraine
  Related:
  - Reports on concentration of Russian troops at border with Ukraine are false — intelligence - TASS
  - Network Close To NATO Military Leader Fueled Ukraine Conflict (Jul 28, 2016) - Spiegel
  - "Our army will take more, but…": Zelensky on why there will be no attack on Donbass (in Russian) - Pravda.ua
  > Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelensky believes that it is impossible to repel Donbass from the Russian occupiers by force, as the Ukrainian military will die. <
  

• Nov 23 - Biden's Play In Today's Oil Market Is A One-Time Trick That Will Backfire
  Related:
  - Biden Releases Sour Crude That’s Out of Favor With U.S. Refiners - Yahoo
  - China says it will release oil reserves according to its needs - Yahoo
  - Oil Prices Crash As Covid Does What Biden Couldn’t - Oilprice.com

• Nov 25 - 'Democracy' Circus
  Related:
  - In Africa, Blinken sees limits of US influence abroad - AP
  - US Provides Military Assistance to 73 Percent of World’s Dictatorships - Truthout
  - U.S. Allies Drive Much of World’s Democratic Decline, Data Shows - NYT
  > Washington-aligned countries backslid at nearly double the rate of non-allies, data shows, complicating long-held assumptions about American influence. <
  

• Nov 26 - The New Virus Variant Has Lots Of Mutations - That Does Not (Yet) Mean It's 'Very Bad'
  Related:
  - Video interview: Eric Topol on the Omicron variant - Noahopinion
  - US to restrict travel from eight African nations over new COVID-19 concerns - The Hill
  - Biden says he delayed Africa travel ban over Omicron variant on advice of advisers led by Fauci - NY Post

Flashback:

Joe Biden @JoeBiden - 3:16 UTC · Feb 2, 2020

Trump further diminished the U.S. in the eyes of the world by expanding his travel ban. This new “African Ban,” is designed to make it harder for black and brown people to immigrate to the United States. It’s a disgrace, and we cannot let him succeed.

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-092

The New Virus Variant Has Lots Of Mutations - That Does Not (Yet) Mean It's 'Very Bad'

Yesterday the chief of the World Health Organzation warned about a 'false sense of security' around Covid-19 vaccines:

In a news briefing in Geneva on Wednesday, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said many vaccinated people were wrongly thinking receiving the COVID shot meant they no longer needed to take any other precautions.

“In many countries and communities, we are concerned about a false sense of security that vaccines have ended the pandemic, and that people who are vaccinated do not need to take any other precautions,” Tedros told reporters.
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“We cannot say this clearly enough: even if you are vaccinated, continue to take precautions to prevent becoming infected yourself, and infecting someone else who could die.”

“That means wearing a mask, maintaining distance, avoiding crowds and meeting others outside if you can, or in a well-ventilated space inside.

The warning was a shot against the Biden administration which has done away with all non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures. These will be again needed if the news from South Africa of a new variance of concern turns out to be as bad as it sounds:

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said the variant was linked to an “exponential rise” of cases in the last few days, although experts are still trying to determine if the new variant, named B.1.1.529, is actually responsible.

From just over 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, South Africa saw the number of new daily cases rocket to 2,465 on Thursday. Struggling to explain the sudden rise in cases, scientists studied virus samples from the outbreak and discovered the new variant.
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It appears to have a high number of mutations — about 30 — in the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could affect how easily it spreads to people.

Sharon Peacock, who has led genetic sequencing of COVID-19 in Britain at the University of Cambridge, said the data so far suggest the new variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the significance of many of the mutations is still not known.”

A presentation by the Health Ministry of South Africa can be viewed here. The slide show at 5:10 forward is the interesting part.

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This (blue) variant seems to out-compete others very fast.

Cont. reading: The New Virus Variant Has Lots Of Mutations - That Does Not (Yet) Mean It's 'Very Bad'

'Democracy' Circus

The Biden administration has invited 110 'participants' to its 'Summit for Democracy' which is to take place virtually on December 9 and 10.

The use of 'participants' was necessary as not all 'participants' are recognized international states. Biden wanted to piss off China. He therefore invited Taiwan which is not recognized as a state by the United Nations nor by the U.S.

Source: Axios - bigger

The Biden administration did not invite Hungary, a democratic NATO and EU member, where, according to polls, the opposition is poised to win next years election. Poland, which is governed more illiberal than Hungary is invited. Likewise the Ukraine even as the Zelensky government has put the opposition leader under house arrest and has shut down opposition TV stations and newspapers.

Turkey, also a NATO member, was left off the list. Turkey's president Erdogan may be autocratic but so is prime minister Modi of India which is invited.

Singapore, a democracy and somewhat U.S. ally, is not on the list. This is likely because its prime minister had rejected to take part in Biden's proposed 'coalition of democracies' as a cold war style entity aimed against China.

U.S. 'enemies' like Russia, Venezuela and Iran are of course not invited even while they regularly have free elections.

The event is thus what it could be expected to be. It is not about democracy but a propaganda show which is supposed to demonstrate strong 'U.S. leadership' where none exists.

The propaganda is not even aimed at a foreign public. It is supposed to assure the U.S. that it still has the credentials it claims to have.

The system has become so weak that it sees a need to assure itself.

Open Thread 2021-91

News & views ...

Biden's Play In Today's Oil Market Is A One-Time Trick That Will Backfire

The White House announced today that the U.S., together with a few other countries, will release crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve:

Today, the President is announcing that the Department of Energy will make available releases of 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower prices for Americans and address the mismatch between demand exiting the pandemic and supply.

The President has been working with countries across the world to address the lack of supply as the world exits the pandemic. And, as a result of President Biden’s leadership and our diplomatic efforts, this release will be taken in parallel with other major energy consuming nations including China, India, Japan, Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom.

The U.S. will make a onetime release of 50 million barrels while the other countries together are expected to release 20 million barrels. For comparison the global consumption is about 100 million barrels per day.

Of the U.S. 50 million release 32 million are only an exchange. Refineries which buy those will later have to provide back a similar amount. The White House assumption is that future crude oil prices will sink. The refiners are likely smarter. They know that future prices will rise and are therefore unlikely to buy any of the 32 million barrels.

The total amount is thus too small to make a reasonable difference in the global market.

Oil prices have been sinking over the last days as rumors about the release made the rounds. But today they were back at rising:

Cont. reading: Biden's Play In Today's Oil Market Is A One-Time Trick That Will Backfire

The White House Needs An Off-ramp From War In Ukraine

Ten days ago I wrote about the potential of war in the Ukraine:

There is fear in Russia that the U.S. is egging the Ukraine into a renewed active conflict with its renegade eastern Donbass region and thereby into a war with Russia.
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The Biden administrations war mongering towards Russia may be seen to be free of cost. But it takes only one miscalculation in Kiev or some unforeseen incident in the Black Sea region and the situation could seriously escalate.

Moscow sees a salami slicing tactic at work that would only end with NATO directly confronting it on all its borders:

Moscow’s narrative is that the Western powers are deliberately fueling Ukraine’s revanchist instincts by arming it and encouraging President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is fighting for political survival, to believe that with Western support, a window of opportunity is opening to recapture the lost territories in Donbas and Crimea and thereby redeem his pledge to be his country’s savior.

And second, as Moscow sees it, the rising tensions with Russia have become a convenient alibi to involve NATO directly in Ukraine’s security and make it a template of the West’s containment strategy against Russia.

The level of alarm in Russia continues to be high. The current ticker on the right side of the TASS website includes these headlines:

• 22 Nov, 09:09 - Russian radars track over 50 foreign spy planes and drones near state borders over week
• 22 Nov, 10:32 - Migrants change strategy, attempt to cross into Lithuania in small groups, says Vilnius
• 22 Nov, 10:53 - Minsk does not want standoff fraught with conflict on border with Poland, Lukashenko says
• 22 Nov, 11:36 - Polish authorities use refugees as distraction from domestic problems, Lukashenko says
• 22 Nov, 12:02 - Anti-Semitism, Russophobia running rampant in Ukraine, Baltic states, warns Lavrov
• 22 Nov, 12:49 - Over 100 times in 50 years: Russian lawmaker points to extensive overseas meddling by US
• 22 Nov, 13:19 - Russia alarmed by Germany and France’s refusal to uphold implementation of Minsk accords
• 22 Nov, 13:35 - Belligerent rhetoric shows Kiev’s wish to send Donbass conflict into hot phase — Lavrov
• 22 Nov, 15:01 - Kremlin points to rising tide of Ukraine’s provocations with NATO-supplied weapons
• 22 Nov, 15:10 - Kremlin blasts West’s media crusade to portray Russia as ‘threat’ to Ukrainian settlement
• 22 Nov, 15:47 - Moscow, Minsk cannot but retaliate against Western pressure — Union State secretary
• 22 Nov, 16:01 - Topic of Ukraine will be touched upon at Putin-Biden meeting — Lavrov

The above are more then half of the links in the ticker column. It is thus extremely conflict heavy, far more than usual.

Russia has stated that it would intervene in the Ukraine should Kiev decided to invade Donbass. It would be the end of the Ukraine Moscow has said. (Russia would likely end up with taking the majority Russian east and south of the Ukraine. The rest would end up as a landlocked agricultural Nazi infested enclave.)

The Kremlin has also multiple times complained about the ever increasing amount of NATO activities near its border. A U.S. study confirms those activities:

Cont. reading: The White House Needs An Off-ramp From War In Ukraine

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-090

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Nov 16 - Russian Anti-Satellite Test Highlights Arms Race In Space
  Related:
  - Can a space war be stopped? - Paul Robinson / RT
  - Crowded Skies and Turbulent Seas: Assessing the Full Scope of NATO-Russian Military Incidents - War on the rocks
  - Amid tensions with Russia, White House scrutinizes military exercises in Europe - Washington Post

• Nov 16 - U.S. Follow Up On Positive Summit Talks Is A Boycott Of China's Olympics
  Related:
  - Biden Thinks He Can Have It Both Ways on China. He’s Wrong. - Peter Beinart / NYT
  - Taiwan’s Defense Plans Are Going Off the Rails - War on the rocks
  - Mackindergarten Lesson - Patrick Armstrong / SCF

• Nov 18 - Turkey - A Crazy Economic Theory Is Ruining The Country
  Related:
  - Turkey’s Currency Crisis Raises Cost of Living, Threatens Financial System - WSJ
  - Turkey’s Currency Mistakes Offer a Bitter Lesson for the World - Barrons
  - Turkey on the hyperinflation vanguard - Asia Times

• Nov 19 - New York Times Invents 'Sexual Assault' #MeToo Case To Blame China
  Related:
  - Where Is Peng Shuai? (Editorial, Nov 19) - New York Times
  
  Peng Shuai is posting selfies from her home, visiting a restaurant with friends and her trainer and at the opening of a teenager tennis event.

  chinahand @chinahand - 17:12 UTC · Nov 19, 2021
  That gear grinding you hear is the usual suspects formulating the response to the Peng Shuai pics. The iron law of China bashing is "Never admit defeat! Always move the goalposts!"

  - Videos Said to Be of Peng Shuai Don’t Resolve Questions About Her Safety (Nov 20) - New York Times

• Nov 19 - Kyle Rittenhouse Is Not Guilty
  Related:
  - "Across State Lines" | MASHUP (video) - Matt Orfalea
  - The Rittenhouse Verdict is Only Shocking if You Followed the Last Year of Terrible Reporting - Matt Taibbi but:
  - A mentally ill man, a heavily armed teenager and the night Kenosha burned (Oct 2020) - Washington Post
  
  - Rittenhouse lawyers’ trial playbook: Don’t ‘crusade,’ defend - AP
  - Kyle Rittenhouse defense attorney, Mark Richards, speaks out following not guilty verdict (video) - CNN
  - Rittenhouse 2.0: Threats of New Litigation Fly in the Aftermath of Rittenhouse Verdict - Jonathan Turley

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Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-090