Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 07, 2018

Syria - U.S. Reveals Underpants Plan For Indefinite Occupation

Today the United States officially announced a new policy in its war on Syria. It is an equivalent to the three step business plan (vid) of the underpants gnomes:

The new U.S. plan is to: 1. keep north-east Syria indefinitely occupied, 2. ???, 3. Iran leaves Syria and the 'regime' in Damascus falls:

President Trump, who just five months ago said he wanted “to get out” of Syria and bring U.S. troops home soon, has agreed to a new strategy that indefinitely extends the military effort there and launches a major diplomatic push to achieve American objectives, according to senior State Department officials.

Although the military campaign against the Islamic State has been nearly completed, the administration has redefined its goals to include the exit of all Iranian military and proxy forces from Syria, and establishment of a stable, nonthreatening government acceptable to all Syrians and the international community.

The first major step of the "diplomatic push" is to prevent the imminent Syrian army operation against al-Qaeda aligned groups in Idleb province:

While the United States agrees that those forces must be wiped out, it rejects “the idea that we have to go in there . . . to clean out the terrorists, most of the people fighting . . . they’re not terrorists, but people fighting a civil war against a brutal dictator,” as well as millions of civilians, [U.S. special representative for Syria James] Jeffrey said. Instead, the United States has called for a cooperative approach with other outside actors.

“We’ve started using new language,” Jeffrey said, referring to previous warnings against the use of chemical weapons. Now, he said, the United States will not tolerate “an attack. Period.

Jeffrey just visited Turkey. The intent was to stiffen Turkey's objection to the upcoming Idleb attack. The result was a plan that the Turkish president Erdogan presented today at the Tehran summit with President Putin of Russian and President Rohani of Iran. It included:

  • prolongation of the deescalation ceasefire
  • 12 armed groups, including Hayat Tahrir al Sham to be disbanded
  • Turkey will train a new rebel force to control Idleb under Turkish command
  • Groups who resist will be targeted in counter terrorism operations
  • ...

The plan is nonsense. It is a copy of the task list Erdogan was given when the deescalation zone in Idleb was established at an earlier summit in the Astana format. Erdogan failed to implement it. HTS still rules Idelb province. HTS still rejects to dissolve. The observation posts Turkey established around Idleb still depend on the goodwill and protection of HTS fighters.

Erdogan has no way to implement his plan. Accordingly today's summit in Tehran ended with a mealymouthed statement. It failed to come up with a common way forward for Idleb.


via Thomas van Linge - bigger

Syria and its allies Russia and Iran should proceed with their plans to cleanse Idleb of terrorist. The U.S. is bluffing. It has no realistic means to prevent the operation. Any U.S. attack on Syrian and Russian forces involved in it would likely escalate into a conflict between nuclear powers. That is a risk the U.S. military is unwilling to take. It knows that the forces it planted into Syria are vulnerable to attacks.

The U.S. is now screaming of imminent chemical attacks by the Syrian army on "civilians" in Idleb:

“If they want to continue to go the route of taking over Syria, they can do that,” said Nikki Haley at a UN press conference today, without explaining how a nation’s only recognized government can ‘take over’ the country it governs. “But they cannot do it with chemical weapons. They can’t do it assaulting their people. And we’re not gonna fall for it. If there are chemical weapons that are used, we know exactly who’s gonna use them.

If a chemical incident occurs the U.S. will know who did it because it provided the chemicals to the terrorist. The Syrian army will of course not use any such weapons. Sun Tzu never gave this advice:


bigger

Chemical warfare is ineffective. That is why everyone agreed to ban it. Like in east-Ghouta the U.S. obviously plans to again fake such a "chemical attack on civilians" to have a propaganda pretext to attack Syrian forces.

Tomorrow the Russian fleet will finish its ongoing maneuver in the eastern Mediterranean. All Syrian army units have taken up their launching positions for the Idleb operation and are ready to go. The shaping operations by artillery and air forces have been ongoing for a while. Any hold off now would only deteriorate the readiness of the troops and give the U.S. more time to implement counter measures.

The Russian President Putin seems to understand that. At the press conference at the Tehran summit he said:

"Regarding a ceasefire, we consider it unacceptable when, under pretext of protecting the civilian population, they want to withdraw terrorists from being under attack, as well as inflict damage on Syrian government troops."

Russia is not in the mood to compromise. It warned the U.S. military that it would soon launch an operation against ISIS forces under protection of the small U.S. garrison in al-Tanf. Those forces recently launched another attempt to recapture Palmyra but were caught and defeated before they could achieve their aim:

Russian complaints about the presence of potential Al Qaeda or ISIS fighters in the buffer zone are not new, the US officials point out. But with an imminent Russian-backed assault by Syrian regime forces in the Idlib area in the north, there is concern Moscow could see this as an optimum time to conduct multiple offensive operations.

And there is the problem of the new U.S. strategy in Syria. The position in al-Tanf is untenable. The U.S could put a full brigade there, including anti-air assets, and it would still be too vulnerable. That is why today the U.S. launched a rescue and exfiltration exercise in al-Tanf. The place is too far away from other U.S. assets to withstand a committed attack.

In the north-east of Syria the U.S. positions is likewise endangered. Since early August 1,900 trucks brought in weapons and equipment for its Kurdish proxy forces, the SDF. The Saudis have committed to pay some money for reconstruction and the U.S. surely hopes to use the oil fields there to finance a future occupation. It will soon start to announce some 'independent' regional government that will be under its complete control.

But Turkey is against such empowerment of Kurds. The supply lines through Iraq are vulnerable. The population is diverse with many Syrian Arab tribes unwilling to live under Kurdish/U.S. control. They will resist the sectarian and ethnic cleansing the Kurds have planned. That makes it easy to instigate a guerilla war against the U.S. occupiers and their proxy forces. What happens when the U.S. forces start to take serious casualties?

The U.S. presence in Syria is costly heap of underpants with no chance to ever turn it into a profit. It was a mistake by Trump to fall for the siren songs of the neo-conservatives and Zionists who pressed for this plan. It is he who will have to pay the political price.

Posted by b on September 7, 2018 at 11:53 AM | Permalink

Comments
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Its been proven again and again that usa only leave in body bags and that needs to happen especially since their lord and master israhell is really really insisting that they stay.
So needs to have a higher body count that usual to GTFO from Syria

Posted by: Occidentosis | Sep 7, 2018 12:17:42 PM | 1

Ho, ho, ho!

Aggrieved Kurdish fighters quietly join Syrian regime side in battle for Idlib

And believe it or not, that's Martin Chulov.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 12:19:59 PM | 2

Trump probably didn't fall for it. He was told by his superiors.

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Sep 7, 2018 12:20:03 PM | 3

So the USA, which has invaded Syria with large numbers of soldiers, weapons, and aircraft, and has built permanent bases there *without permission from the government of Syria*, demands that all Iranians leave Syria? Even though the Iranians are in Syria at the explicit invitation of the Syrian government?

Arrogance and hypocrisy can hardly be taken any further.

The logical implication of this US government position is that the USA does not recognize the Syrian government, and does not consider Syria to be a sovereign state. Yet the Syrian Arab Republic is a member in good standing of the UN, and is recognized by other UN members - even including the USA.

Posted by: Tom Welsh | Sep 7, 2018 12:26:23 PM | 4

Whichever way I look at this nonsense I keep up coming to the realization that any country that is not seeking to acquire atom bombs is ruled by idiots. Bullies don't understand any other language but that of devastating violence.

Posted by: Steve | Sep 7, 2018 12:28:02 PM | 5

I wouldn’t doubt the Post op-ed done by some “resistor” in the the administration, is actually done by some in the intelligence agency, even by Brennan himself, to sow more discord inside Trump’s inner circle. They are good at that. It’s not someone inside, it’s some spook with help from the Post.

Posted by: Jose | Sep 7, 2018 12:29:17 PM | 6

@Bob (3)

That has been my take on affairs sine some time: Trump is just the mouthpiece of, and strong-armed by the Media Military Industrial Intelligence Complex (MMIIC).

Full disclosure: I despise Trump for a great number of reasons.

Even fuller disclosure: I despise with a vengeance the Intel community, which has taken over the media and the DNC and are the Jesuits of the MIC.

Posted by: bjd | Sep 7, 2018 12:30:12 PM | 7

It's a good morning in my corner of the planet, and thanks for all the feedback, particularly Pft @50!

So far, no False Flag attack has occurred in concert with the Tehran Summit or UNSC meeting as many anticipated, which is very positive. Statements coming out of Tehran are very diplomatic. The comment I made at Sputnik's report centered on Erdogan's having created his Idlib dilemma himself and what he could do to atone for his moral failings for the entire Syria debacle he helped to cause. A Joint Statement was published, of which point #2 was aimed directly at the Outlaw US Empire and the UN:

"2. Emphasized their strong and continued commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic as well as to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and highlighted that they should be respected by all. They reiterated that no actions, no matter by whom they were undertaken, should undermine these principles. They rejected all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combating terrorism and expressed their determination to stand against separatist agendas aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria as well as the national security of neighboring countries."

What I'm missing is a transcript of the joint news conference as the snippets offered by TASS only cover specific, yet important, points, this one being most important as Putin calls for terrorists to "... wisen up, stop putting up resistance and lay down their arms."

So far, I've seen nothing from the UNSC meeting, but it's only just after noon there.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 12:31:49 PM | 8

thanks b.. excellent commentary and insight from you on this as usual..i especially liked the sun tzu quote!

the usa has been in afganistan for how long? if nothing changes here, it will be the same with usa in syria.. talk comimg from the usa/uk is cheap.. fortunately russia, syria and iran know this...

@3 bob... looks that way to me too.. ditto @7 bjds last comment.. everyone's comment are on track from my vantage point..


Posted by: james | Sep 7, 2018 12:43:30 PM | 9

Thanks for this cogent post. I pretty-much see it the way you do and am looking forward to
the great Idlib battle which *might* just turn out to be the LAST one in all military history!

Posted by: Guerrero | Sep 7, 2018 12:56:52 PM | 10

It's what I've said for some time. The grass is steadily being cut under the US feet.

I found in my inbox today a bulletin from ISW (Institute for the Study of War), that bunch of warmongering Kagan bastards. I thought I'd unsubscribed months ago, but they seem to have dragged my address out of the trash.

This one's quite interesting in its way, as long as you understand they're omitting the central, basic fact.

Intra Shi'a Civil War Begins in Iraq

An intra-Shi’a civil war is beginning in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi and Iranian proxy leader Hadi al Ameri are locked in a power struggle to dominate the formation of the next Iraqi government. The U.S. is backing Abadi and temporarily disrupted Iran’s play in late August. ISW warned on August 28 th that Iran could escalate militarily in response. Abadi and Ameri separately declared coalitions of Council of Representatives (CoR) members sufficient to gain the status of the “largest bloc” on September 2 nd . The largest CoR block has the constitutional right to choose the next Iraqi Prime Minister. The resulting stalemate has protracted government formation negotiations past legal deadlines. Each side is escalating with force in order to break this political stalemate.

Iran’s proxies conducted a warning shot against the U.S. embassy in Baghdad in an attempt to compel Abadi to back down. Abadi visited the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) on September 3 rd and declared his authority over all of Iraq’s armed forces. [1] His goal was likely to disrupt Ameri’s ability to use Iranian proxies within the PMF as coercive leverage against either Abadi or members of Abadi’s coalition. In response, ten Iranian proxy militias within the PMF declared they will respond to Abadi’s “irresponsible takeover” of Iraqi institutions and called on the Dawa party to limit Abadi’s behavior on September 4 th . [2] The groups stated they will use “all possible means” to force coalition troops out of Iraq. Multiple mortars landed near the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad at night on September 6 th . ISW assesses that an Iranian proxy, likely Asa’ib Ahl Al Haq (AAH), conducted the attack.

Shi’a actors aligned with Abadi and with Ameri are also escalating within a pre-existing protest movement in Basra. Abadi has lost control in Basra, where Shi’a protesters have defied a curfew and unidentified Iraqi Security Force (ISF) units have used live fire ammunition against protesters on multiple occasions since August 31 st . An appeal by Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani on September 4 th did not prevent future use of live ammunition . Attacks in Basra targeted multiple government buildings in addition to Iranian proxy militia headquarters and the headquarters of militias and political parties aligned with Abadi on September 6 th . It is possible but unlikely that protesters alone conducted these attacks. Militias aligned with nationalist Shi’a Cleric Muqtada al Sadr, a member of Abadi’s coalition, were likely involved in the attacks against Iranian proxy militia headquarters. Iranian proxies were likely similarly responsible for attacks against the Dawa party and possibly government buildings. At minimum, the deteriorating conditions in Basra raise the likelihood of intra-Shi’a violence at a time when Shi’a powerbrokers have resorted to armed action to affect a protracted government formation struggle in Baghdad.

Evidently the problem is that Abbadi is the US candidate, and he lost the election, which of course the US does not want to recognise. The confirmatory vote in parliament this week was dropped, evidently because Abbadi was going to lose. It is not an intra-Shi'a civil war, but a conflict between the Shi'a PM supported by the US, but who lost the election, and those who are quite rightly contesting this undemocratic US insistence. No doubt the stand-off will continue until the US agrees to another candidate.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 12:59:59 PM | 11

Looks like my comment made on the previous Syria thread was a waste of my time. Oh Well!

The Iraqi situation has clearly turned in the favor of the Outlaw US Empire as it craves chaos. It seems more likely than ever that Sadr's been turned given his behavior. The situation will give comfort to Neocons who want to "consolidate gains" within Syraq and continue building their military presence.

I very much welcomed the Russian statement on the al-Tanf terrorist base; its liquidation will hopefully come swiftly. It's instructive to compare the political stability of Syria with Iraq's political chaos. I think it very likely we'll see Daesh's resurrection within Iraq as that's the Outlaw US Empire's main tool to keep the chaos ongoing--the empire doesn't fight against Daesh; rather, it uses Daesh to fight against its stated enemies everywhere.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 1:02:25 PM | 12

This is such amazing insights. Like a game of Risk for real. Thanks for the truth and not the presstitute bullshit: aka sympathy for Al Qaeda

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 7, 2018 1:03:55 PM | 13

karloff

The Iraqi situation has clearly turned in the favor of the Outlaw US Empire as it craves chaos.
I don't agree with that, for the obvious reason that it will be impossible to support the US position in al-Tanf. And indeed in Syrian Kurdistan. What the US wants is a US-agreed PM in Iraq, and moderate stability.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 1:19:39 PM | 14

Those who have been skeptical of Erdogan's "turn to the east" are not surprised by Turkey's less-than-helpful position.

Also: those that believe that Russia saved Erdogan from a coup might be experiencing some cognitive dissonance at this point.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 7, 2018 1:25:28 PM | 15

Apparantly, the Press Conference was rather tendentious.

Laguerre @13--

I don't think the Outlaw US Empire will get what you think it wants. We differ. Events will eventually provide an outcome. As the recent election showed, political fragmentation within Iraq is rife.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 1:30:52 PM | 16

@10 laguerre.. thanks.. i have been trying to follow that but need more backdrop to fully understand it.. as for the us wanting a us-agreed pm in iraq, how do you think this is working out at present? looks like they need isis to help with the project at this time, as karlof1 mentions below..

@11 karlof1 quote "-the empire doesn't fight against Daesh; rather, it uses Daesh to fight against its stated enemies everywhere." indeed and the thought of an active isis in iraq appears to be the renewed agenda here..

Posted by: james | Sep 7, 2018 1:33:32 PM | 17

@14 jr... where do you think it is going with erdogan here? did you happen to see the link @2 that laguerre provided?

Posted by: james | Sep 7, 2018 1:34:52 PM | 18

Khamenei and Erdogan found time to meet in Tehran. Khamenei's words to him are interesting. Perhaps the Turks will release Erdogan's view of the conversation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 1:37:26 PM | 19

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 12:59:59 PM | 10

You'll find a much more trustworthy analysis of the Iraqi protest movement in Basra from Elijah Magnier:

The USA oblivious to the rise of a resistance movement in response to its interference in Iraqi elections

Posted by: BM | Sep 7, 2018 2:01:44 PM | 20

Bob in Portland

Are you naive? Trump and his aides have threatened Syria all week, just today they spread disinformation that a chemical attack by Syria was prepared.

Wait some days and there will suddenly be a video out and a campaign in the west that Idlib was attacked by chemicals and need military bombing by the west. Wake up!

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 7, 2018 2:15:35 PM | 21

If the SAA and allies wait more than a week they may lose their initiative as surely something spectacular is being devised, they need to keep moving fast right through the chemical stunt and what ever the reaction is. PMUs should bring a force to the border and publicly demand to be unmolested in an assault on ISIS around Al Tanf. Any supposed guerrilla assault by Arabs in the NE should begin at the onset of the Idleb offensive. If there were a cost for the SDF/US occupation at the same time as the US population is told we must defend Al Qeada in Idleb the whole narrative maybe harder to explain to the US. Also where is China? If they aren’t going to commit special forces or advisors as they hinted, than a strong statement about the need and right of the Syrian people to eliminate these jihadi forces on the world stage would help the whole situation quite a bit.

Posted by: Jason | Sep 7, 2018 2:21:09 PM | 22

B, the suntzu meme is awesome:)

Elijah J. Magnier has a new post in regards to Real politik in Iraq.

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/09/05/the-usa-oblivious-to-the-rise-of-a-resistance-movement-in-response-to-its-interference-in-iraqi-elections/(SP) has a post up about the real politik of Iraq,

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 7, 2018 2:22:43 PM | 23

The desperate panic of the US shows very clearly that there are many US special forces in Idlib embedded with the terrorists, who are in danger of capture (hence interrogation - the US would be less worried about their lives than releasing information about ther support for the terrorist chemical weapon attacks). I hope Russia will not allow any of them to escape. They should try to jam their communications.

On Turkey, the US are obviously trying to blackmail Turkey, and subject massive pressure to turn them. But it seems all the more implausible that Turkey would go back to the US side when the US is apparently planning to consolidate the Kurdish state, which is an existential threat to Turkey far greater than anything (else) the US can threaten them. Is it possible that Erdogan is bluffing in his resistance to the Idlib battle, as Kabuki theatre for Washington? (And also as Kabuki for the terrorists, whose turning against Turkey he fears).

Posted by: BM | Sep 7, 2018 2:24:06 PM | 24

karlof

I don't think the Outlaw US Empire will get what you think it wants.
I slightly misworded myself there (I didn't think it important). Not what the US wants, but needs. Obviously the US is capable of air-supplying isolated bases for ever, as we saw in Vietnam. But their functionality is impaired, potentially reducing even to uselessness. In the case of al-Tanf, that's true. The US needs a compliant regime in Baghdad, not a load of Bolshies, in order to make the Syrian policy work (not that it's going to work). Otherwise it will be like Dalat, except isolated by hundreds of kilometres, and unable to be air-supported in short order.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 2:30:53 PM | 25

Posted by: BM | Sep 7, 2018 2:01:44 PM | 19

Magnier's view is much the same as mine, according to his article.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 2:35:03 PM | 26

PMUs should bring a force to the border and publicly demand to be unmolested in an assault on ISIS around Al Tanf. ... Also where is China?
Posted by: Jason | Sep 7, 2018 2:21:09 PM | 21

That's a good point about the Iraqi PMU's bringing a force to the border near al Tanf. Otherwise any ISIS forces pursued by Russia could take refuge on the Iraqi side which Russia is not allowed to bomb. No doubt the US is planning to use their ISIS proxy massively during Idlib.

I am surprised the Chinese are not bringing in their new drones for testing in Idlib.

Posted by: BM | Sep 7, 2018 2:37:03 PM | 27

Not every portion of the Turkish Wall with Syria's watched/defended as this photo attests. The Russian commentary reads: "Likely supporters of the militants of the "moderate opposition" flee to Turkey, in connection with the approach of the beginning of the Syrian army operation in Idlib province."

IMO, Erdogan doth protest too much as he created the terrorist occupation of Northern Syria and Idlib Province, had lots of time to get his terrorists separated from the more extreme (or perhaps they're all extreme which is why they can't/won't be separated), and deserved to be in a cell at The Hague instead of negotiating in Tehran. Turks deserve better leadership than that provided by Erdogan, but unfortunately both Turks and the world are stuck for the moment with Erdogan.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 2:42:33 PM | 28

Quite what the Turks are up to seems to me not clear. Obviously they have to defend (politically) their conquest of Afrin, which was anti-Kurd, but executed by Sunni Jihadis. Will they defend the jihadis in Idlib? That seems to me less evident. They may do nothing.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 3:03:21 PM | 29

According to Russian sources, Erdogan has said the ceasefire would not apply to designated terrorists, so in that sense, the long-established de-escalation / reconciliation process would apply to Syrians (only) in Idlib who renounce violence and support a peaceful political process. In this context, the Russians offer their support.

https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/rusvesna.su/news/1536328450

There have been reports that HTS has executed a Syrian doctor, Dr. Hussein Aydin (sp ?) in Idlib city for refusing to cooperate with the forthcoming WH false flag.

Irrespective of the weak, venal Erdogan's inability to commit, the 'mealy-mouthed outcome' is just words. Idlib is going to be cleared by the SAA, Iran, Hezbollah, RuAF and others. Turkey will have no alternative but to seal its border to stop the terrorists streaming through or face their wrath if they do. Maybe the opposition position that Erdgan should deal with Assad over this is a result of them seeing this potential outcome.

As suspected, the Israeli rescue operation for 800 WH in southern Syria was intended to allow them to extract a number of their operatives. That was only possible because Israel had control of the border.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/four-rebel-commanders-flee-to-israel-as-syrian-army-takes-over-quneitra/

The same won't be true of any UK operatives still in Idlib, especially if Turkey does clamp down hard (can always hope). No wonder the UK is playing the Skripal card for all its worth.

Posted by: Yonatan | Sep 7, 2018 3:08:39 PM | 30

After all this, if the US launches another false-flag chemical attack, in order to be able to justify a wide-spread bombing of Syria, sounds like folly. The Syrians/Russians have been preparing for months for precisely this eventuality. There will be some results, but not mortal, if it goes ahead.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 3:27:55 PM | 31

I truly love this quote:

"a stable, nonthreatening government acceptable to all Syrians and the international community"

There is no conceivable Syrian government in the history of time that could be acceptable to all Syrians and the "international community" (i.e., the US and its lackeys). That's some class-A "we're never going to stop attacking you while we make it sound like we're interested in peace" BS right there.

Posted by: worldblee | Sep 7, 2018 3:41:24 PM | 32

Laguerre

You do not believe that yourself, cosidering the many times US has attacked Syria (and that with no effort to stop it by Russia by the way.)
Assad will of course not win the war and build up Syria again, US and Israel will kill him before that happens.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 7, 2018 3:55:19 PM | 33

Assad will of course not win the war and build up Syria again, US and Israel will kill him before that happens.
You have the very foolish idea that that the US is omnipotent. It is not true. They are in the middle of failing.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 4:03:42 PM | 34

It is amazing how people take seriously all that charade.

Erdogan will stop being from US stooge, even leave NATO or other nonsense, his personal fortune is bound to US. He was attacked financially few weeks ago lira lost 50% of value, he begged Turkish people to pull dollars from under mattresses to exchange for worthless lira and bail out him and his cronies, inflation jumped to 60% in last thirty days all that just before massive refinancing of western debt is due.

That collapsing trend of Turkey was starting to reverse just in last 48 hours before this turd of a meeting in Tehran, completely for nothing wasted time as Erdogan took blame of spoiler of agreement with Iran and Russia on Idleb again.

In fact in this very moment as I write Iran and Russia is under assault from US financial terrorists it will be escalated via Skripals nonsense and automatic CW sections in November, Iran oil production collapses as EU cowardly refused to defend Iran Nuke deal as well as India and China remaining wobbly , inflation in Iran skyrockets .

All that while narrative of Assad Must Go return with vengeance and former deputy VP of Russia claims excellent relations with Israel..

As I wrote before Russian and Iranian elites are dependent on US for their personal fortunes and simply will do what they are told and they do. Any observant student of Syrian war knows that Russia that threw Assad under the bus in 2012-14 in Geneva, refused to deliver already paid for in 2008 critical helicopters and weapons supply, could finish off terrorists and contain Kurds twice in 2015 and 2016 and instead engaged in senseless cease fire and withdrawn its military twice only to let terrorists convalesce and be supplied by US with new better weapons, is not there to defend Syrian nation from illegal external aggression by NATO and GCC but as Putin stated openly vaguely to defeat terrorists.

Suddenly Iran and Russia few months ago introduced hated reforms that hurt working people at home, under guise of sanctions, upping retirement age increase taxes reduce benefits seems straight from IMF devastating demands to increase profits of oligarchy and make people pay for their losses of profits.

Except for Assad Nobody wants to end this war as it fits their own political agendas as all of them are in western pockets while playing victims of the west for domestic political audience.


Posted by: Kalen | Sep 7, 2018 4:09:45 PM | 35

I have been listening to the UNSC meeting, and both France and Kuwait were quite insistent that the poor civilians in Idlib are in dire need of increased humanitarian aid, which they insist should be delivered by Turkey.
I smell a rat.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 7, 2018 4:15:43 PM | 36

Laguerre @24--

I get your point, which is why it wanted Abadi retained. But the conditions underlying the chaos unleashed is wholly due to the Outlaw US Empire's actions.

Still awaiting the UNSC meeting's results.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 4:16:18 PM | 37

Laguerre

Could you name me one time Syria had the power to respond military to the many attacks US have directed at Syria? There is no such case, but please let me know what Syria and Russia will do this time when Syria will get attacked, always funny comparing before and after you know?

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 7, 2018 4:23:21 PM | 38

That's quite a rant, Kalen. Everybody knows that the transaction system depends on the US, it's why other systems are being sought. Its' a problem of the system.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 4:27:15 PM | 39

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 7, 2018 4:23:21 PM | 36

Could you name me one time Syria had the power to respond military to the many attacks US have directed at Syria?
Of course not. Syria can't beat America by military acts. But nevertheless the US is losing, through bad strategy. The Kurds are unreliable allies, for one.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 4:48:11 PM | 40

Zanon @36--

Syrian air defense forces have responded to every missile attack launched by the Outlaw US Empire and they retaliated against the Zionists targeting some of their installations on Golan and beyond. Plus, the entire terrorist invasion of Syria is an Outlaw US Empire invasion by proxy, so the terrorists are actually Outlaw US Empire auxiliary troops according to the rules of war, just as the Hessians were British Empire auxiliaries during the American Revolution. As such, the SAA has inflicted tremendous losses on Outlaw US Empire's terror troopers, certainly with the aide of her allies. Additionally, there're the massive caches of arms and munitions captured by the SAA which come at the expense of the Outlaw US Empire and its allies--billions of dollars worth that are overflowing warehouses designed to safely store such items, some of which have exploded spontaneously in spectacular fashion.

What will be the response if there's a next time? I expect more of the same, perhaps with greater Russian participation. I suspect a multilayered response plan is in effect based on the nature of the attack as was the case the two previous times. Although I haven't been able to find a Russian source for verification, Mint Press News reports: "Russia has warned the U.S. that the Russian and Syrian militaries are prepared to launch an offensive on the U.S.-controlled Al-Tanf military base in Syria." I suggest you take the time to read this important article by The Saker published today as it illustrates the risk involved in such an attack.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 5:14:52 PM | 41

Demented US elites double down on stupid again and again.

Trump does this, then that - no matter, the US will leave Syria with its tail between its legs.

Posted by: AriusArmenian | Sep 7, 2018 5:21:54 PM | 42

wagelaborer @34

Yeah. See my comment @14.

Turkey keeps Idlib. No need for CW attack. WWIII averted.

Yawn.

Erdogan shows his true colors. Some of us warned of this. But there is just very little skepticism - even here. Dumbass Charlie Brown always believes that Lucy will NOT pull the football away. And the cheerleaders here CAN'T IMAGINE that their team might get played by a player.

So many LULZ, I'm choking on my popcorn.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 7, 2018 5:23:27 PM | 43

Kalen @ 33 said in part:"Except for Assad Nobody wants to end this war as it fits their own political agendas as all of them are in western pockets while playing victims of the west for domestic political audience."

Yep, we should probably add most of the Syrian people with Assad, to those who really want this war to end.

As much as most of us want the empire to experience a major setback in Syria, Kalen's take, IMO is right on target.
Here's my prediction: The empire will stay in Syria as long as it desires, and the powers that should be opposing their hegemony will do nothing.
Whether any of us like it or not, until the world is not dependent on the U$ dollar, nothing can change.
That REALLY sucks, but, it's the world we all now live in. I'd really like to disagree with Kalen's take on the matter, but, I can't...

Posted by: ben | Sep 7, 2018 5:42:50 PM | 44

The "underpants" plan was most likely concocted by Israel-firsters. The context:
The Jewish State has been arming the Al Qaeda in Syria with Israel-made weaponry: http://www.moonofalabama.org/2014/11/how-the-us-and-israel-support-al-qaeda-in-south-syria.html
At the same time, the Jewish State has been arming the neo-Nazi in Ukraine with Israel-made rifles: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-10/major-israeli-daily-our-government-arming-neo-nazis-ukraine
This looks like a final stage of the unraveling of the Holocaust business.

Posted by: Anya | Sep 7, 2018 5:43:21 PM | 45

FYI I'm not advocating an attack on Idlib. I'm not saying that Putin is 'soft' or anything like that.

Russia, Syria, and Iran gambled on bringing Turkey into their coalition. Maybe that was a gamble worth taking. But now they pay the price. Turkey has a veto on Idlib attack.

I'm sure game plans will be properly adjusted.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 7, 2018 5:45:02 PM | 46

P.S. Thanks b, as always, for your efforts on all matters. MoA is a "go to" site of the first order, and the therapy derived is awesome..

Posted by: ben | Sep 7, 2018 5:56:28 PM | 47

@ben if you were correct then how do explain united zionist states GTFO from lebabon?

Posted by: Occidentosis | Sep 7, 2018 6:00:00 PM | 48

There is a bit of self-contradiction in the US govt statements. They admit it's a civil war. That implies there is more than one side. But then the goal is stated that there is to be one leader to be approved by ALL Syrians. That is not possible. It's not even possible in the US. And no lesson was learned from the latest forgotten war - Libya - which now has 3 governments amid anarchy caused by US/NATO/Qatar/S-A actions. Maybe Assad should invoke the memory of Lincoln who was faced with a rebellion and ask what business is it of the US to interfere.

Posted by: Curtis | Sep 7, 2018 6:01:43 PM | 49

Comic Relief at UNSC as Haley had to sit and endure Syria's Bashar Al-Jaafari's presentation--she usually leaves the hall!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 6:01:58 PM | 50

DW just had a segment on the meeting in Tehran of Putin, Erdogan, and Rouhani. They claimed a desire to separate the "moderate" from HYAT but admitted that while Erdogan did not want any refugees, Turkey had supported the terrorists in the past. Ha ha. That's tough, Erdogan. You must reap what you have sown.

Posted by: Curtis | Sep 7, 2018 6:04:45 PM | 51

re Jackrabbit 44

Turkey is not vital for the attack. It will stop before Turkish occupied territory.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 7, 2018 6:06:48 PM | 52

@30 worldbee... nice summation and how i see it too..

@33 kalen.. i mostly agree with you, however i don't believe it is as simple as you outline and i do believe russia has been stalling for time.. i could be wrong, but i don't think it is a walk in the park for the west here and something is going to break - mostly likely russian and iranian patience on usa constant malfeasance.. i don't believe russia is going to back down when it is truth or consequences time which is rapidly approaching.. ditto @37 laguerres comment to you..

@41 jr... i don't believe it has played out yet, and i don't believe we can foretell as easily just how it plays out here, although as both you and i have maintained, erdogan under turkey is one slippery dynamic that mostly leans to the usa still in spite of any of his pretensions to the contrary..

@42 ben... as i said to kalen, i don't believe it is going to play out exactly like that.. i personally think russia is going to act.. it might be another year out, but i believe they will act against the usa's game plan here.. we'll see..

@47 curtis... see @30 worldbee summation.. usa position is a pile of steaming b.s..any way one reads it, nothing changes.. as i have said - talk is cheap.. actions speak louder.. we'll see how it unfolds.. i don't believe the defensive players in all this, have played all the moves they have to play..

@48 karlof1.. it is a wonder anyone sticks around for haleys presentations, including her own staff, lol..

Posted by: james | Sep 7, 2018 6:12:56 PM | 53

The administration spokesperson called for "a stable, nonthreatening government acceptable to all Syrians and the international community, unlike our own situation here in the United States"

Apparently his full quote was cropped before going out to the stenos.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | Sep 7, 2018 6:16:09 PM | 54

Let Trump suffer this disaster. Trump made wrong decisions by appointing neocons advisers.

Posted by: Toxik | Sep 7, 2018 6:20:51 PM | 55

@52 bart... let us know if you find the full quote.. i agree with @30 worldbee.. a pile of unbelievable b.s. as it presently stands..

Posted by: james | Sep 7, 2018 6:21:19 PM | 56

I find this observation apt:

"A senior #Russia/n diplomat in a private talk following #TehranSummit: "There's no "moderate opposition" in #Idlib left. All the folks who wanted to reconcile w/ #Assad, make deals w/ #Moscow already did so in other regions. What's moved to Idlib are die-hard radicals"

I don't know from what source came the idea that the Liberation of Idlib's been postponed. Putin specifically said there'll be no ceasefire on live TV so all the Turks back home would learn the hard truth.

After Khamenei's meeting with Erdogan, he met with Putin and then the rest of the team. His narrative's bold yet measured as with this example:

"One of the cases on which #Iran and #Russia can cooperate is harnessing the United States; because the United States is a threat to the humanity and it is possible to harness it."

More of the meeting is available in English on Khamenei's own website, the existence of which I just discovered. Enlightening reading to be sure!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 7, 2018 6:35:58 PM | 57

@b: The link to a bigger version of the map links to a small image. Here's the proper link: http://www.mediafire.com/convkey/d689/iqdz5c7phlb3239zg.jpg.

Posted by: S | Sep 7, 2018 6:41:12 PM | 58

Sorry for the veiled sarcasm, James. Our government is "not acceptable" to ALL Americans.

Posted by: Bart Hansen | Sep 7, 2018 6:52:35 PM | 59

The attack on Idlib has been foolishly postponed long enough. It should have been started weeks ago. It is obvious that Turkey is trying to buy time.

Posted by: redrooster | Sep 7, 2018 6:54:03 PM | 60

Turkey is not 'showing its true colours". It is wriggling- sending out signals to Uncle Sam that it still has lots to offer.
Turkey didn't turn away from the US. Nor was it seduced by Russia's sweet talk and soft power: it was spurned, repeatedly and violently, by a Washington which had got so used to telling its satellite what to do that it had forgotten to show even the most minimal pretense of respect.
That is what is apt to happen when History has ended and you're working for the Hegemonic power chosen by Providence to rule the world and thus able to leave its affairs in the hands of corrupt and stupid ignoramuses with rich friends: people who tend to make silly mistakes, like pissing off the governments of Russia, China, Iran and Turkey all at the same time, then adding Pakistan to the list. And, just in case they might feel left out, cutting the living standards of the Greek people in half.
Turkey desperately wants to be back in Uncle Sam's good books. And it figures that its position in Idlib gives it a wonderful opportunity to get a big kiss and a warm hug and the restoration of the lira for saving Sam's bacon.
My guess is that the US won't play ball and all Turkey will get for its pains is to add to the number of those regarding it with suspicion and distrust.

The underlying problem is that the US still doesn't recall why international laws and agreements came about in the first place. It doesn't understand how much it would gain from abiding by international agreements and, for example, honouring the sovereignty of the Syrian state. Russia must be very tempted to march a couple of divisions into the Donbas just as a reminder that there are laws in strategy as well as physics.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 7, 2018 6:55:07 PM | 61


Bevin
About which sovereignty of the Syrian state you are talking about? Putin model? with turkish agreed invasion?
Regarding the Donbass, please do not talk like an Baba Yaga but show it in nature! fingers will be cut off!

Posted by: ALAN | Sep 7, 2018 7:20:14 PM | 62

bevin

Turkey didn't turn away from the US. Nor was it seduced by Russia's sweet talk and soft power ...
What a narrative! Poor Erdogan suffers what he must! Um... no.

You forget that .... Erdogan was a willing participant in 'Assad must go!' and traded in ISIS oil. They facilitated jihadi entry into Syria. They killed journalists trying to get the truth.

And ... Erdogan has repeatedly denounced USA after the coup and said that with the trade sanctions USA was "trying to do with economics what they couldn't do with the coup".

Somebody is lying, Bevin. Somebody is getting PLAYED. Everyone WANTS to believe that the LIER is USA instead of Erdogan. Yet Erdogan called the coup a "gift from God." His power increased greatly since the coup and USA used the apparent Turk-USA tiff to get close to the Kurds. Now Erdogan stands against action against Idlib. Should we just ignore these facts and hope for the best?

Russia, Syria, and Iran now know the truth, if they didn't already. Putin let this play so that he could get the clearest possible read on where Erdogan's sympathies lie.

The underlying problem ...
Is that we are PLAYED. Obama PLAYED the world, pretending to be a man of reason and peace. Trump has PLAYED the world pretending to be a nationalist.

Erdogan is just another PLAYER. Does ANYONE think that he's a straight-shooter?

No one likes to think they've been PLAYED. Tell ordinary Americans that the two Parties are PLAYING them and see what happens. They will kill the messenger.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 7, 2018 7:38:05 PM | 63

O @46:

"U.S. military firepower arrives in Lebanon, bolsters partnership and fight against ISIS
By Adriane ElliotJuly 17, 2018"

For your edification: https://www.army.mil/article/208582/us_military_firepower_arrives_in_lebanon_bolsters_partnership_and_fight_against_isis

Posted by: ben | Sep 7, 2018 7:48:29 PM | 64

@15 karlof1

Your link to the Turkish commentary on the summit is interesting. In that thread, Ragip Soylu said 5 hours ago that apparently Turkish and Russian officials - this includes I presume Putin and Erdogan - were not aware that Tehran was broadcasting the meeting after the opening comments.

If in fact they thought the private talks had begun, then we've seen Erdogan's opening gambit out in public, and perhaps this is purely by mischance? Is this possible? Apparently so - observers in that thread seemed hugely surprised that such things would be made public.

I'm still struggling to catch up with appears to have been said, and agreed or disagreed, and is still in progress. Personally, I don't think anything will stop SAA, and Putin is ready also. Erdogan cannot stop it.

But he talks, that Erdogan and personally I admire him for it. He talks to all sides for all reasons and to all purposes, and then goes with what he must, while still talking as if he were not so doing. A fitting match for the US, which continues to talk forward while moving backwards.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 7, 2018 8:57:20 PM | 65

Also, karlof1 from #18 and again at #55 - your links are to Khamenei's Twitter account and not to the actual tweets you presumably had in mind. I take them to be these three:

9:32 am
then
9:37 am
then this one:
9:53 am: "@RT_Erdogan, I appreciate your stances on the issues regarding #Myanmar. The Palestinian cause is always important, too and it should not be neglected even for a second."

Is this what you were seeing regarding the meeting?

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 7, 2018 9:01:24 PM | 66

God surely has a sense of humor making Nikki Haley president of the UNSC at this particular moment. I can't wait to see her head explode as the forces of good finally prevail.

Posted by: wanton piece | Sep 7, 2018 10:40:50 PM | 67

@ wanton piece for the bit of snark about Nikki Haley........blessings to you for such reporting for us who are more time challenged these days

@ karlof1 and others with the reporting and analysis of the Turkish summit......thanks as well

I think that when/if a decent history of this period is written, the behind the scenes presence of China throughout will be more apparent.....not to belittle what Russia is doing in any way, BUT, we are seeing empire no longer able to push a unipolar narrative....and the crack we see is widening.

What will the next few days actions on the ground/air be? What circus act(s) as a preempt to war will iFUKUS try next?

I keep thinking of the now becoming hollow words of Karl Rove about how the actions of empire were to just be discussed/reacted to until empire did something else to then be discussed/reacted to. .....now there is an attitude that needs to be bitch-slapped..with apologies to bitches.....and it may be occurring.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 7, 2018 11:28:25 PM | 68

Can Novichok can be loaded into a gas canister and dropped as a bomb? I'm thinking that maybe Novichok will be named as the toxin in the next fake chemical attack. First it was sarin, then chlorine--they seem to want to name a new one each time, and Novichok already has name recognition thanks to the Skripal propaganda.

Posted by: Timothy Hagios | Sep 7, 2018 11:49:27 PM | 69

Grieved @67--

I linked to his main Twitter because there were too many components and no coherent thread containing them all. Then Khamenei went and tweeted some more! That's when he finally posted the link to his website. Gotta get web-savvy to make the required end-run around BigLie Media! Too Funny! I wasn't aware it was an open-mic mistake! But it was of so much benefit!

And there was no False Flag attack! What a day!

Cheers!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 8, 2018 12:09:13 AM | 70

Here is what the newest waistband warrior, agent orange, believes should be the theme of the amerikan occupation of Syria. WEDGIE POWER!!

Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 8, 2018 12:27:46 AM | 71

@59, redrooster,

These large operations planned by Russian military include safe passage routes for civilians who want to get out or who escape. So far, no announced routes. So it's still too early to begin the operation.

The fact that Idlib was the topic at the Tehran meeting of Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani is another indication that the operation is not ready to be launched.

Of course, if you know more than Shoigu, Gerasimov and the General Staff members running this, maybe you should be in Damascus coordinating.

Posted by: Red Ryder | Sep 8, 2018 12:32:06 AM | 72

@59 redrooster

Until the Vostok-2018 joint military exercises with China are over(Sept 17), I don't believe Russia will give the go-ahead on a full-scale assault of Idlib. If a chemical weapons attack is faked, things could get hot real fast, and Russia will need all the involved military assets in place.


There is no immediate risk of Syria losing the initiative, the offensive need not be rushed. Plenty of intelligence to gather in the meantime, probing and softening of positions, feints designed to fix the enemy in place and reveal supply lines...and diplomacy, the Russians seem to take diplomacy pretty seriously.


I don't see what Turkey gets playing for time.

Posted by: jmichael72 | Sep 8, 2018 1:41:28 AM | 73

I stopped watching TV about 30 years ago so I just took time to watch the underpants gnomes snippet which others have probably seen.

I am reporting back that Mad magazine came before South Park but with similar insight and presentation......and I am getting older and tired of watching SSDD (same shit/different day)

To those questioning why there is no more "left" in America, my take is that the vestiges of what folks thought was the "left" of the 60's that still seemed to show signs of clarity of purpose have all been coopted or otherwise neutered into vestigial forms. AND the 8 trillion pound gorilla in the room is the effectiveness of media and religion to keep the masses brainwashed into thinking they are the "empire" and all action starts and is defined by them. Reason has been deprecated along with science and just like many keep saying that China should step up, I am aghast at those leaders of science that are watching this attempted return to the Dark Ages and not stepping up as adult leadership above the private finance control fray and its destructive social structure.

I feel at times like humanity is in the "cave" of private finance organized society and can't see any other way for humanity to comport itself....an extinction request to the Cosmos, IMO.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 8, 2018 1:43:04 AM | 74

Karlofi@39
Jackrabbit@44
James@51

See:

Russia's asymmetric response is very painful.

https://cont.ws/@alex-haldey/1054552

machine translated from the original Russian; excerpted:

The fact is that Russia pursues its policy without regard to their provocations. She defeated the Wahhabis trained by the West in the Caucasus, snatched Crimea from under the nose. The US scenario in Ukraine broke. Restores the EAEC. In Syria, Russia completely threw the Anglo-Saxon West off the pedestal, which he held there all the post-war 50 years. That is, with its bombing of Igilov barmaleyov, Russia has broken the main ribs of the rigidity of the geopolitical world contour built by the Americans. This is a disaster, which the Anglo-Saxon world has nothing to answer nuclear to Russia.

While Britain crumbled in compliments of the OPCW experts it had bought for the act, Russia dealt the most powerful bomb attack in Idlib, clearing the way for the Syrian army to destroy the last enclave of American suckers. And thus it struck a blow to the British political elite. After all, all the dances around the Violins and the subsequent sanctions are designed to prevent what Russia is doing now in Idlib. Not prevented. And this is a demonstration of the weakness of the British ruling class, capable only of biting stealthily behind its heels.

But worst of all, the actions in Idlib demonstrate the US weakness. Trump is completely zamordovan - not their rivals, and Russia. Exactly. Russia has revealed the preparations for the provocation of the Khimatki in Idlib, which the United Nations has declared throughout the world. And all this was heard. With all the details, includes the number of barrels and their color, as well as a description of the ways of delivering chlorine from Idlib and places of their secret storage. All the trumps of Americans are shone. There is absolutely no sense in the operation.

But the operation will be. The match will take place in any weather. The United States has already outlined the places on which they will strike rocket-bomb strikes. The assault will be more decisive than the previous time. Preparation is as if the US is confident - the chlorine attack will take place. Then, when they decide in the US. Not in Damascus, but in Washington. That is, in general, all masks are dropped and the States openly prepare for aggression with provocation in a sovereign country where they are open in the status of an occupier. And even if there is no chemotherapy at all, the American blow will take place. Too much Russian was battered by bombs of American protégés. They are too close to defeat, for which the reason for finding Americans in Syria will disappear. How can this be allowed? The impact of prestige is necessary and it will be, even if the Sun falls to the ground and the Mississippi will flow backwards. Only prestige is not visible.

States are increasingly falling from the strategy to tactics. The attack on Syria is necessary for Americans not because they will decide something in the outcome of the campaign. He will not decide anything, because the US needs to introduce its ground forces to change the course of the war, with all the ensuing consequences - the death of the military and the clash with Iran, Syria and Russia. And even with Turkey. With China silently standing behind them. This is a guaranteed defeat, the global consequences of which are unpredictable. The first thing that can be seen is the collapse of NATO. The second Vietnam will crush not only the American president, but the US itself. Therefore, the Americans will score a goal of prestige and leave the lost match. They will strike at Syria, where again Russian intelligence will reveal in advance the alleged targets of the strike, withdraw the Syrian leadership from there, and then again a lot of exploding Tomahawks seeps from the fields of Idlib,

Russia in Idlib is now a difficult task. It does not consist in repelling an American attack, but in not getting it off TOO MUCH. Trump goes to the attack not because he wants to defeat the Russians in Syria, but because he wants to defeat the globalists in America. And do it on the eve of the congressional elections. That is, the reasons for the American attack on Syria are purely internal. If Russia gives too much in Syria to Trump on snot, she risks drowning him, instead of somehow supporting his formidable image and helping to win. Simply because Trump is beneficial to Russia - it's too cool he breaks everything on what the American power of the past decades was based. Turning such a guy into an idiot and helping his impeachment is beyond the national interests of Russia. We can not now overstep the stick in Syria. Trump must come out of the shelling with a good man,

That is, the fate of the United States is now in Russia's hands. And Russia is leading America according to its plan, lowering it slowly and controllably - although the US remains the world hegemon and very much at the same time beating Russia with sanctions. But Russia does not loose her teeth on the throat of the States. At the same time, Berlin, supported by Moscow's cheap gas, is on the brink of London in Europe.

It's very painful to understand this to the British and Americans. It is so painful that no collapse of the ruble and Hochma in Salisbury with the filing letters of local clerks from the OPCW, who were intimidated by British special services, can not satisfy this pain. Russia responds asymmetrically - by continuing to do what has become the cause of such insane and ineffective actions by London and Washington. After the United States has fired back from Damascus, Russia and Syria will continue to squeeze Idlib and squeeze him. And after that they will build a "big Chinese wall" around Deir-ez-Zor and not a single mouse will slip out of there, especially with oil. We have already shown by the example of Erdogan how easily caravans with oil are bombed, Russia does not want to allow its exports from Syria. And the US will have to withdraw from there. And the subject of negotiations with Russia will be the preservation of the US face in this history of their next defeat. In the meantime, Russia needs to try very hard not to let Trump get missiles to where they do not need to, and yet not expose him as a weakling and a symbol of American disgrace. Russia should give Trump the opportunity to finish his important business. The second such president the United States will not have, as Russia will not have a second Gorbachev.

Posted by: pogohere | Sep 8, 2018 3:00:08 AM | 75

@72 Red Ryder,
@73 jmichael72

The operation started 4 days ago with the bombardment of the province. The safe passage routes for the civilians had already been set up weeks ago.

Turkey plays on time because it itself does all it can to reinforce the defenses of the headchoppers all the while massively supplying them with each passing day.

The reason the operation was put on hold for such a long time was to somehow get Turkey to agree on Syria's and Russia's terms diplomatically, which of course didn't happen.

Posted by: redrooster | Sep 8, 2018 6:32:16 AM | 76

Looks like it may well have kicked off

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1038373765305065472

Posted by: JohninMK | Sep 8, 2018 7:06:01 AM | 77

Breaking: Terrorists & White Helmets met in Idlib to prep for final stage false flag chem attack – Russian MoD
https://www.rt.com/news/437953-idlib-syria-attack-terrorists/

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 8, 2018 7:48:14 AM | 78

When the inevitable fake chemical attack occurs, what is the chance that the war harpies in the news media will say that we need to risk Armageddon as some kind of tribute to John McCain, "the conscience of the senate"?*

Speaking of Armageddon, I must say that nothing indicates the fallen nature of this world more than the insane fawning adulation and honors bestowed in John McCain. That this corrupt, stupid, bloodthirsty war criminal would is treated like a hero while so many real heroes go unrecognized and even hated is more than disgusting--it has a downright Babylonian feel to it.

*Yes, they actually called him this.

Posted by: Timothy Hagios | Sep 8, 2018 8:05:12 AM | 79

Even a threat by US and/or some or all Nato countries to nuke Syria, if it attempts to free Syria of all terrorists [includes also American], will not prevent, i suggest, SAA from obtaining all of Syrian lands.

And US is mightily scared, in think and hope, of a Russian response if US and other terrorist states, would dare to nuke Syria.

Posted by: bozhidar balkas | Sep 8, 2018 8:22:10 AM | 80

@80:

If these psychopaths do nuke Syria, we'll all see a planetary wide revolt against the US. It'll start out slowly, then all at once. If you're living in the US, you better have an exit plan.

Posted by: Ian | Sep 8, 2018 8:50:47 AM | 81

By now it's blatantly obvious that the general western public, are several steps behind reality regarding globel affairs ! Due clearly to media misinformation and out-right censorship. Here on m o a we have slipped from being 2 steps ahead, to being 2 steps behind 'events' That has happened within the last 3 months. we may not like the truth but we have to face it ! And not be in denial

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 8, 2018 9:05:26 AM | 82

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 8, 2018 9:05:26 AM | 82

I guess Western journalists were not invited to the Idlib offensive.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 8, 2018 9:10:11 AM | 83

Reading b.'s argument about the chlorine.

Chemical warfare is ineffective. That is why everyone agreed to ban it. Like in east-Ghouta the U.S. obviously plans to again fake such a "chemical attack on civilians" to have a propaganda pretext to attack Syrian forces.

It is ineffective - same as nuclear weapons - if the idea is to get control of the civilian population instead of killing them.

It would make sense with tunnels or psychological warfare - forcing people to flee. I can imagine situations where both sides in Syria might think chlorine to be useful.

Chlorine has industrial use and was not included in the chemical weapons deal.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 8, 2018 9:22:05 AM | 84

somebody 83
I'm not sure when was the last time the US MSM had independent "war correspondents." In recent wars, they've been isolated to reciting DoD announcements or being embedded (controlled). So what we get is a homogenized, pasteurized version of what the govt/mil/elites what us to hear.

Posted by: Curtis | Sep 8, 2018 9:26:31 AM | 85

ben 64
Incredible article. "disarming of all militias?" Does that include Hezbollah? And Lebanon is fighting ISIS ... in Lebanon? This is sort of confusing considering how the US has handled ISIS in Syria.

Posted by: Curtis | Sep 8, 2018 9:29:28 AM | 86

The meeting where Erdogan openly disagrees with Russia and Iran is a face saving trick to allow Erdogan to appear loyal to the 'rebels and the Islamist terrorists that he has been supported for years. Erdogan is worried that the allies of the Islamist terrorists and the rebels will seek revenge inside Turkey is he appears to condone the attack on Edlib that Syria, Iran and Russia are about to perpetrate.
Russia and Iran have agreed to let Erdogan play the role of the outraged to try to spare him from violence inside Turkey.
The attack will take place and Erdogan will continue to vocally express his opposition while cooperating with Russia and Iran.
Will the betrayed rebels and Islamists believe in his innocence?

Posted by: virgile | Sep 8, 2018 9:44:23 AM | 87

#Youtube shuts down all pro Syrian channels including, Sama TV, Syrian MoD, Sana news agency, Syrian presidency
https://twitter.com/Ibra_Joudeh/status/1038373111480164352

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 8, 2018 10:41:33 AM | 88

@87

Youtube's owner Google is tight with US government (as is Facebook), therefore ever increasing censorship is expected. The resistance should really put more effort in creating alternative social media platforms, right now the Resistance is more or less dependent on US satraps mercy and can be banned anyday.

Posted by: Harry | Sep 8, 2018 10:51:37 AM | 89

Somebody @ 83 those jurnos know what side there breads buttered ! There all owened! And on that note, take a look at this bril comment.
Zanon @ 87
Wow you nailed it right there ! Right on que ! The comments on that link are good and encourageing , but the list of names envolved in ref ( mind blowing) keep up the good work, don't let eny one 'dis you' says more about them than it does about you!

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 8, 2018 11:07:18 AM | 91

Harry / Mark2

Yeah its quite sad that resistance isnt more prepared these days, I have to blame myself too of course, everyone has a "responsibility" to act in one way or another, after all wars based on lies and we are still as weak as ever. We can obviously expect no help from political parties nor social media platforms nor mainstream media.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 8, 2018 11:20:47 AM | 92

@75 pogohere

That's an utterly brilliant analysis. Thanks to you or whoever did the translation.

~~

@87 virgile

Yes, that's exactly what Erdogan is doing. Thanks for putting that into such clear words.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 8, 2018 12:01:28 PM | 93

Zanon
I called it 2 weeks ago, when the bad people of the world close down every form of comunication the only other comunication left is the streets ! That's not a good thing it's a bad thing. But it's a reality of human life . Caused by the oppressor not the oppresed !
I think the good people of Moa should couse less collateral damage but focus on the enemy !
At present we can see the 2 main battle fronts Idlib and all media. Both are battles only not the war !!!

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 8, 2018 12:08:41 PM | 94

@57 Karlof1 quoting the Iranian President:

"One of the cases on which #Iran and #Russia can cooperate is harnessing the United States;
because the United States is a threat to the humanity and it is possible to harness it."

As a life long reader of military history accounts, I predict that the battle of Idlib will go down as the
last battle in the history of human warfare. After all, isn't *military warfare* a throw-back? A threadbare
meme convenient for the purpose of "making of money", the seemingly easy, way of evil ? In a multi-polar world
ruled by sovereign nation states, warfare can only be viewed as an impediment to energy pipelines, maglev train
travel and meaningful economic progress, IOW the lawful development of human society according to God's Plan.
No, I am NOT an idle Jehovah worshiper nor any formal believer that the spiritual/moral realm has any kind of
one-to-one correspondence to events in the material realm. I only worship the truth and her harbinger, great art.

Posted by: Guerrero | Sep 8, 2018 12:11:51 PM | 95

I should have read this yesterday. Adam Garrie has a very full article detailing the agreement that actually came out of the Tehran meeting yesterday, and calling the disagreement "theater" staged by ALL the parties. Each element of disagreement played well for supporters and eased criticisms in each country's respective constituency. But the agreements are very clear and point to the formidable outcome that we all hope for.

Garrie also quotes from his previous writing that explained the true and full meaning of formal statements made by several of the key players in the region - an entertaining and illustrative aside. He finishes by recalling how the Idlib battle is actually far less important to Damascus than the future one east of the Euphrates. This, he says, is where the "eventual Ankara-Damascus rapprochement that Russia has long been keen to establish" could well come to be, as that battle shapes up in 2019.

Garrie's article also contains the full text of the Tehran agreement, with his emphasis in parts that spell out clearly the commitment of all parties. His analysis of the event is extremely valuable and I recommend it highly to any who wish to understand what's moving forward on Idlib. As a spoiler, here's Garrie's concluding paragraph:

In this sense, even if the US and its White Helmet allies stage a “chemical weapons” provocation in Idlib as Russia has publicly said it expects them to do, the political theatre in Tehran is the real false flag because it disguises near unanimity by cloaking it in robust yet polite disagreement. In this sense, the Astana Group have beaten the United States and its European partners at their own game.
-- Forget White Helmets: This Year’s Oscar Goes to Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani


Posted by: Grieved | Sep 8, 2018 12:41:00 PM | 96

Vanessa Beely on Twitter is a good read and view at the mo !

Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 8, 2018 1:03:36 PM | 97

@59 bart.. thanks.. i wasn't quick enough to pick that up!

@75 pogohere... it is an interesting take.. the parallel with gorbochev and trump is interesting.. i personally think that russia, or that particular author) has too much faith in trump playing this type of role here... trump seems like an unstable pawn in the hands of bigger players, even if he doesn't like to see himself that way.. he is being squeezed with the mueller investigation and the intel community on the one hand and the folks running the wars around the globe - dod and etc..

i think the scenario described is a bit too warm and fuzzy towards the authors own view on russia - it would appeal to a russian audience, and too naive with regard to the dangerous place the usa finds itself today.. trump could be taken out and replaced with pence as well.. i don't think russia has as much control over a number of possibilities here as the author seems to imply.. thanks for sharing..

@87 virgile.. good question.. i doubt it.. the ''moderate headchoppers'' erdogan had supported are going to feel betrayed...

twitter, google, facebook.. all tools of the usrael empire and all unable to prevent what is coming - media blackout is irrelevant.. the fools who follow shit on these outlets need to give their head a shake or put it in perspective... it is ultimately irrelevant..

Posted by: james | Sep 8, 2018 1:21:56 PM | 98

James @98:

Think of Erdogan's economic woes that are now being exacerbated by US financial attacks and Trump's need to survive the US mid term elections this Nov for all the members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate.

The object would be to give Erdogan and Trump the political "Golden Bridge"/cover they need to accede to what must happen, analogous to what Helmer cites here: IS PUTIN OFFERING KUTUZOV’S GOLDEN BRIDGE TO RUSSIA’S ADVERSARIES, OR IS HE TRYING TO CROSS IT HIMSELF? as Kutuzov's strategy to allow the French to retreat from Russia:

"The Russian tactic of giving an adversary an exit through which to escape was coined by Marshal Mikhail Kutuzov (left) during the war against Napoleon. He called it the “pont d’or” (golden bridge). The meaning was that Napoleon and his army should be allowed to retreat out of Russia, harassed, starved, diminished, but not annihilated. Kutuzov’s reasoning was strategic. It was not worth the risk and cost to the Russian army of a struggle to the death with the French. Worse, Kutuzov thought, if Napoleon were totally destroyed, there would be nothing to stop the British from emerging to threaten Russia more powerfully than the French had been capable of.

“You don’t realize,” Kutuzov talking to a subordinate in November 1812, as Napoleon and his stragglers crossed the Dnieper river, “that circumstances will in and of themselves achieve more than our troops.And we ourselves must not arrive on our borders as emaciated tramps.” And in a put-down of Sir Robert Wilson, a known English spy at the tsar’s field headquarters: “I am by no means sure that the total destruction of the Emperor Napoleon and his army would be of such benefit to the world; his succession would not fall to Russia or any other continental power, but to that which commands the sea, and whose domination would then be intolerable.”

Is the golden bridge still a doctrine of Russian strategy, and if so, who will express it?

. . .

Dominic Lieven’s history, Russia Against Napoleon, was published in 2009 in the UK, and a year later in the US. It is the first history in English to use Russian documents to substantiate the victories of the first Patriotic War, and to be dedicated by a non-Russian author thus: “in memory of the regiments of the imperial Russian Army who fought, suffered and triumphed in the great war of 1812-14”.

. . .

But there are three strategic lessons, which Lieven credits to the tsar, Kutuzov and others in the Russian command, and which qualify for Putin’s recommendation to re-read the history and apply it to today’s battlefields. The first is logistics – by withdrawing before Napoleon’s advance, and destroying the forage and food, the Russian strategy eliminated the forage on which Napoleon’s horses, and hence his supply chain, as well as his power projection (artillery, cavalry) depended. “The horse was a crucial – perhaps even the single most decisive – factor in Russia’s defeat of Napoleon”, Lieven concludes. Napoleon lost 175,000 horses in Russia in 1812. The following year Russian intervention prevented him getting hold of new horses from studs in Poland, Prussia, and Austria. It was easier to replace the men lost to the French army than the horses.

The second is intelligence. The record of the first Patriotic war reveals one of the most thorough penetrations of an enemy’s military plans, and its leaders’ most intimate conversations, in European history. With bribes, interceptions, seduction, and other means, Russia’s command had access to every Napoleonic secret from unit strengths, arms and orders to what went into Napoleon’s mouth for breakfast, and what was happening in his sensitive stomach. The Russians were also able to mobilize considerable counter-intelligence capability, turning French and British agents into conduits of disinformation. In intelligence gathering and its application to tactics and strategy, the Russians clearly outclassed the British.

The third lesson is the golden bridge. Requiring confidence in their ability to anticipate the enemy, and a realistic appraisal of their own weaknesses and vulnerabilities, the Russian command was able to prevent Napoleon from fighting the Russian campaign as he wanted. The bridge strategy gave the enemy the one predictable exit that optimized on the domestic and foreign political calculations in Alexander’s strategy. To achieve it, Kutuzov had to withstand constant criticism of his competence, age and loyalty from younger officers with attack plans Napoleon expected them to deploy. Borodino was the one exceptional sacrifice Kutuzov was obliged to make, allowing Napoleon to deploy 587 guns against almost 100,000 Russian troops on flat ground of less than one square kilometre with minimal cover. Although Kutuzov had 624 guns on the field, they were deployed in a scatter, unable to concentrate their fire on the French, and sitting ducks for the French artillery. In meat-grinders like that, the Russian heroism was in the sacrifice of lives without victory. In the golden bridge, the heroism was in the saving of lives, and victory at the same time." [emphasis added]

Posted by: pogohere | Sep 8, 2018 1:41:31 PM | 99

Grieved@96

Thanks for the Garrie article. Political theater at its best. It is entirely consistent with what I have since posted about the "Golden Bridge" strategy.

Posted by: pogohere | Sep 8, 2018 1:44:08 PM | 100

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