Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 23, 2018

Russian MoD Presents IL-20 Investigation Results - Israel "Crossed The Line Of Civilized Relations"

The Russian Ministry of Defense just presented the results of its investigation (vid, English subtitles) into the September 17 incident in Syria. A Russian electronic warfare plane was hit by a Syrian air-defense missile during an ongoing Israeli attack on Syria. Fifteen Russian soldiers died when the plane fell into the Mediterranean.

The investigation confirms the early analysis published on Moon of Alabama:

The Israeli attack came out of the same direction as the Russian IL-20. The large 4 propeller plane creates a much bigger radar reflection than the small F-16s fighter jets. The S-200 missiles have a semi-active radar homing seeker. These are passive detectors of a radar signal which is provided by an external source, in this case the Syrian and Russian radars on the ground. While the missile was aimed at the F-16 its seeker likely mistook the larger radar reflection of IL-20 for the intended target.

Russian experts later provided more details that supported the above analysis.

The investigation presented today found that the Israeli jets intentionally used the Russian IL-20 as a shield against the Syrian air defenses.

Ru MoD Presentation 5:54min

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RT summarizes the Russian conclusion:

"We believe that the blame for the Russian Il-20 aircraft tragedy lies entirely with the Israeli Air Force," said spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov, before revealing a detailed account of events leading to the downing of the Russian Il-20 military aircraft on September 17. The plane was shot down by the Syrian air defense units as Israeli's F-16s effectively used it as a cover during the attack on its neighbor.

The report featured previously undisclosed radar data and details of communications between Russian and Israeli militaries, and concluded that "the military leadership of Israel either has no appreciation for the level of relations with Russia, or has no control over individual commands or commanding officers who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy."

The report debunks Israel's claim that its jets were already back in Israel when the IL-20 was hit. The Israelis gave the Russian military just one minute of warning, misled about the intended target areas of its September 17 attack and lied about the positions of their jets after the incident happened.

The Russian military spokesperson reminded the Israelis of all the efforts it undertook to accommodate Israel on issues related to Syria. These included the removal of Iranian supported groups from south Syria, the protection of historic Jewish facilities in Aleppo and the recovery of the remains of Israeli soldiers from earlier wars.

"This is an extremely ungrateful response to all that has been done by the Russian Federation for Israel and the Israeli people recently," Konashenkov said.
...
"In view of the above, the hostile actions committed by the Israeli Air Force against the Russian Ilyushin Il-20 aircraft cross the line of civilized relations."

The incident will have consequences on several levels. For one - the airspace along the Syrian coast will now be off limits for Israeli flights:

Lebanese news outlet Al-Mayadeen meanwhile reported that Russia plans to continue its closure of the airspace above Syria's territorial waters after the end of military exercises on September 26. According to the report, the decision to shut the airspace was made by Russia's National Security Council after the plane was shot down.

The Syrian air defense will be further strengthened and modernized. Its personal will get more specialist training. But the probably worst issue for Israel's military will be cooled down relations with the Russian forces. There will be no more freebies, no more looking aside and direct Russian fire on Israeli forces should they again try such stunts.

While the Israeli military may feel superior as it has more weapons, especially airplanes, in the area than the rather small Russian force, it is Russia that has the strategic depth and the means to hit any point in Israel from thousands of kilometers away. It is Russia, not Israel, that has a seat at the UN Security Council and the international standing to make itself heard.

The Russian government will, like its military, conclude the provocation was intentional and draw its consequences from that.

Posted by b on September 23, 2018 at 07:57 AM | Permalink

Comments
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Useless words by Russia since Israel will keep bombing Syria and therefore make this incident possible again,

Netanyahu signals Israel won’t curb activities against Iran, despite Russia row
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-signals-israel-wont-curb-activities-against-iran/

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23, 2018 8:16:47 AM | 1

Russia is a paper tiger and will not respond to any attacks on it except with threats, which will be tested, will fail and then will be followed up with more threats and the cycle continues.

Posted by: Realistic | Sep 23, 2018 8:22:11 AM | 2

The main threat now to both the US and Israel is a potential coup d'etat by military hardliners in Russia. There is a limit to the number of humiliations they will accept.

Posted by: bob sykes | Sep 23, 2018 8:26:51 AM | 3

Konashenkov also lauded Russia's efforts to secure the withdrawal of Iran-backed forces from the Golan Heights near the Israeli border, saying that a total of 1,050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and tactical missiles, as well as 145 pieces of other munitions and military equipment" were moved more than 140 km to the east of Syria. Konashenkov added that this was done at Israel's request.

This is one of many titbits for those who claim Russia is neutral in Israel vs Iran/Syria conflict. Russia was always accomodating Israel as much as it possibly can, all the while it wasnt Iran/Syria who were bombing Israel daily, but the other way arround, yet Russia was siding with Israel and a) moving Iran/Syria/Hezb assets away from Golan; b) looking the other way when Israel bombs; c) refuse the delivery of S-300 which Syria already paid for many years back.

the airspace along the Syrian coast will now be off limits for Israeli flights

Its temporary, therefore it makes little difference in the long run. Plus Israel more frequently bombs from Lebanon anyway.

The Syrian air defense will be further strengthened and modernized.

At the most more Panstirs to intercept some missiles, Russia wont be providing anything (like S-300/400) to actually harm Israeli jets. Hopefully Iran will help with Bavar-373, the only way Israels aggressions stops if they get bitchslapped like Hezb did in 2006.

But the probably worst issue for Israel's military will be cooled down relations with the Russian forces.

We agree on this. I can only repeat: I dont get why Israel would backstab friendly superpower, which kept SAA and Iran off its back and allowed to bomb Syria without any consequences.

Posted by: Harry | Sep 23, 2018 8:31:14 AM | 4

The full transcript of the briefing for those who can’t see the subtitles: https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12196560@egNews.

Posted by: S | Sep 23, 2018 8:53:07 AM | 5

Posted by: Harry | Sep 23, 2018 8:31:14 AM | 4

We agree on this. I can only repeat: I dont get why Israel would backstab friendly superpower, which kept SAA and Iran off its back and allowed to bomb Syria without any consequences.

Maybe that can help to understand why Israel behaves so strangely...
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/351274-us-opens-first-permanent-military-base-in-israel

Posted by: Lea | Sep 23, 2018 8:53:10 AM | 6

all the hasbara trolls are in early, I see.

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 23, 2018 8:54:08 AM | 7

"I dont get why Israel would backstab friendly superpower"

Umm . . . remember the Forrestal. Israel does not behave by expected civilized standards. For Israel, backstabbing is the norm.

Posted by: Evelyn | Sep 23, 2018 8:59:28 AM | 8

Since the Israelis took down USS Liberty and killed tens of US troopers, they assume they can do any shit they want without any serious repercussions.
The bottom-line is simple: it's time enough for a major military power - so US or Russia mostly - to take down a high amount of IDF guys in one strike and claim "accident", just to show them they're not untouchable and not over the law. I think a ratio of 10:1 is considered by the military to be the limit of reasonable retaliation.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 23, 2018 9:05:04 AM | 9

"...cross the line of civilized relations."
It is my understanding that one of the gravest Russian insults is to call someone uncivilized...

Posted by: TheBAG | Sep 23, 2018 9:20:08 AM | 10

It seems that downing of Russian planes are triggers to major change in the dynamic of the war in the area. The first one pushed Turkey toward Russia and changed Turkey's course on Syria.
It is not expected to see Israel making such a drastic change but Israel is in a dire situation, surrounded by foes that are becoming military more powerful. They need Russia's good diplomatic relation with Syria , Iran and Hezbollah to prevent violent confrontation on their borders where Israel would certainly suffer civilian casualties. The USA can't be of any help as the only solution it offer is military confrontation.
Therefore we can expect Israel to apologize and try to decrease its military intervention in Syria and pursue a diplomatic path using Russia as a go-between. Of course the USA will act as a spoiler and push the Israelis toward more aggressive actions against Russia. I doubt that Netanyahu wants to see more enemies in the region.

Posted by: Virgile | Sep 23, 2018 9:24:46 AM | 11

@bob sykes

The main threat now to both the US and Israel is a potential coup d'etat by military hardliners in Russia. There is a limit to the number of humiliations they will accept.

Military coup in modern Russia is impossible. You completely misunderstand the power dynamics in Russia if you seriously consider such scenario. If it weren't for Putin, Russian military wouldn't be fighting in Syria at all (they would prefer to fight in Ukraine). Russian military position in Syria will continue to be fragile until Iraq fully moves into the anti-globalist camp, providing a reliable route for Russian forces. Only then will Russia become more assertive. That may take years. Russian military has developed a huge tolerance for humiliation in the 80s, the 90s, and the 00s. They will easily tolerate another 10–20 years of humiliation if that's what the Russian grand strategy requires. Russia will employ the rope-a-dope tactic internationally while it continues to modernize its military and harden domestic economy against future sanctions that are sure to come.

Posted by: S | Sep 23, 2018 9:28:41 AM | 12

How diplomatic.

No mention of the Frenchies.

Posted by: el sid | Sep 23, 2018 9:34:04 AM | 13

Here we go again, kill Russians. destroy aircraft, defenless aircraft at that and what does Russia do? They apologise for getting in israel's way. Just what we need more colorful maps and bull crap reports. Russia is scared to do anything meaningful and the world knows it.

Posted by: Dave | Sep 23, 2018 9:51:53 AM | 15

S@12

Great points. Both Russia and China have extreme amounts of patience. The Anglo American Axis powers are uncomfortable when their microwave dinners take more than a minute to cook. They are progressing on their attempts to encircle Russia by agreement or by smashing its allies. They started the second the old Soviet Union fell.

Part of Putin's history lays in Stalingrad. He is from there and his family fought the Nazis and died in Stalingrad. They will not allow that to happen again. He knows he has only one chance to cut off the head of the snake(that is the US). He will not make that move until he is ready.

Posted by: dltravers | Sep 23, 2018 10:14:34 AM | 16

This latest incident involving the shooting down of a Russian military aircraft which was used as a shield by the Israeli air force leaves Russia looking weak and foolish as the Israeli's must have calculated that Putin will not respond in kind.

Posted by: Peter Walker | Sep 23, 2018 10:17:40 AM | 17

Interesting to see if and when israel attacks targets in syria again

Posted by: adamski | Sep 23, 2018 10:18:08 AM | 18

adamski

Israel know that they could get away with alot (even killing 17 russians!) in Syria, this attitude by Russia surely give Israel more ideas to bomb Syria more frequently and openly.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23, 2018 10:23:16 AM | 19

My prediction of radioactive Holy Land may become a reality. Surely a few atom bombs into Israel would establish peace in the Middle East immediately. I am surprized that it did not happen yet. From a military point of view fiddling around with a country of about 8 million people makes little sense. China or North Korea may do the Syrians a favor.

Posted by: Friar Ockham | Sep 23, 2018 10:25:18 AM | 20

Realistic 8:22:11 AM | 2
"Russia is a paper tiger and will not respond to any attacks on it except with threats..."
Do not count on it. Putins Russia is very patient but there is indeed a limit. And this limit is almost reached.

Posted by: Pnyx | Sep 23, 2018 10:30:24 AM | 21

@zanon

The israelis haven't killed russians before and they certainly haven't gotten away with it.
I imagine some serious consequences for the israelis.
Konashenkov has just called off the friendship.

Posted by: adamski | Sep 23, 2018 10:32:34 AM | 22

Wouldn't want to be Putin in trying to balance his response in this. It's like having a misbehaving teenage son, no matter how bad he is you feel the need to protect him.
He is not known for knee jerk reaction and will likely bank the political gain from this just like he did with turkey. Israel will continue to hit Syrian targets it deems too dangerous and Syria will have minimal success is stopping what is clearly a superior Israeli Air Force and intelligence. It's a game of patience and time.
I doubt very much Israel will be this brave next mission.

Posted by: Brad allen | Sep 23, 2018 10:33:24 AM | 23

...
But the probably worst issue for Israel's military will be cooled down relations with the Russian forces. There will be no more freebies, no more looking aside and direct Russian fire on Israeli forces should they again try such stunts.

I hope this means that the next time the Air Force branch of the IDF crosses a Russian red line, any vulnerable branch of the IDF will become a legitimate target for Russian retaliation.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 23, 2018 10:33:47 AM | 24

I'm expecting the 'disputed' territory of Golan Heights to become an IDF-free zone before "Israel's" next Chutzpah adventure in Syria.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 23, 2018 10:54:13 AM | 25

The week long Russian snap drill over Cyprus amounts to a blockade of Israel.

Russia Blockades Israel

Posted by: Fec | Sep 23, 2018 11:13:18 AM | 26

"Part of Putin's history lays in Stalingrad. He is from there and his family fought the Nazis and died in Stalingrad. ' dltravers @16
I think it was Leningrad, which, in some ways, was even worse: a terrible siege involving the Baltic fascists too.
You are right about @12, a sensible response to the usual nonsense from those that laguerre, shrewdly, identifies as hasbara.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 23, 2018 11:22:14 AM | 27

.... it is Russia that has the strategic depth and the means to hit any point in Israel from thousands of kilometers away.

This is a ridiculous statement. Russia will NOT hit Israeli territory, will NOT start a war with Israel.

It is Russia, not Israel, that has a seat at the UN Security Council ...

Wrong: Israel DOES have a seat at the UNSC, that seat is occupied by the U.S.

Posted by: Ernesto Che | Sep 23, 2018 11:26:24 AM | 28

Tired of reading that Putin is this or that, not responding in a volatile way. WW3 is not a desired path that Putin wants to go down through. We can rant all we want, but we are not at the front lines, or ever will be. War is for warmongers who NEVER experience the hell they so desire upon us.

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Sep 23, 2018 11:40:46 AM | 29

Russian military challenging Putin here.

Posted by: paul | Sep 23, 2018 11:49:03 AM | 30

I'm sick and tired of everyone who criticizes Putin as he deserved being dismissed as idiots who want WW3. There are many many options for showing serious resistance to Israel's impunity far far far short of WW3. This is as clear as anything could be. Such attacks on Putin critics are dishonest and should stop.

Posted by: paul | Sep 23, 2018 11:51:09 AM | 31

For months drones were launched from Idlib against the Russian bases in Latakia.

This is being handled as a matter of Russian-Israeli relations. But I think the proper context is 'Assad must go!' vs R+6.

The drone effort was in line with express wishes of neocons that "Russia pay a 'price," for its intervention in Syria.

The Idlib agreement created a DMZ that will make it more difficult for Jihadis to mount operations against Russian bases and Rus-Turk anti-terrorist operations mean that Assad can't be blamed for a CW attack. So no 'price' can be exacted from a false flag.

But the Israelis were positioned to exact a 'price'. And they did.

And it was timed for maximum political effect as MoA readers know by the recent trolling. Trolls have been pushing the narrative that Putin is weak.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

The downing of the IL-20 also sidelined questions of Erdogan's loyalty to his new friends (Russia and Iran). USA threats to bomb Syria over Idlib provided cover for Erdogan's full occupation of Idlib.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 23, 2018 12:13:54 PM | 32

Russia and China are playing the long game, and are quite rightly ignoring or responding asymmetrically to continuous provocations. Open escalation risks upsetting that long game. Note that these military provocations are weakening, a sure sign of the declining power of U.$./Israeli/Saudi/et al hegemony.

Even U.$. economic sanctions have blown back driving Russia into Chinese arms (and vice versa) and strengthening Russian self-reliance.

In the case of Syria, the slow but sure cleansing of the terrorists infesting the country is a sign of strength. A major shift of power away from the Anglo-Zionists in the middle east is underway, and is the motivation for these militarily useless provocations in the vain hopes of maintaining the status quo chaos.

Iran is also playing a long game but is in immediate danger from U.$. oil sanctions. We'll know shortly whether Iran's Russian and Chinese partners will be able to offset the economic damage already underway.

Posted by: Trisha Driscoll | Sep 23, 2018 12:30:26 PM | 33

"all the hasbara trolls are in early, I see".

Posted by: Laguerre | Sep 23, 2018 8:54:08 AM | 7

Well, with this "incident", maybe they are not going to fall only the masks of Israel as Russian "partner", but also those of many supposed pro-Russian alt-media/blogs.....

The Saker blog curiously took it hard in trying to exculpate Israel, when it was obvious, even without having any military background, that the Israelis were to blame, as clearly stated Mr. Shoigu at the first moments after the "incident", and some of its unconditional supporters/patrons tried hard to blame Iran in the comments section, following suit the Israeli line of defense.

Fort Russ, at its time, seems to have better issues to treat....

All in all, Pat Lang, being the most patently obvious pro-US, has been the most even, what might tell us a lot about who is who in the world of armchair warriors....and selfproclamed "experts"....

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 23, 2018 12:39:43 PM | 34

All the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Syria since 2011 have failed to meaningfully alter the balance of power against the Syrian government. Up until 2014 the Syrian government was largely prevailing against NATO-, Gulf-, and Israel-backed jihadist mercenaries. Only the incursion of DAESH (ISIS) from Iraq prompted the Syrian government to request Russian military intervention. As soon as Russia intervened in late 2015, the balance of power shifted decisively against NATO/GCC/Israel and de facto denied the West its objective to topple Bashar al-Assad (as opposed to partitioning Syria). At this point the West gradually shifted the bulk of its material support from the jihadists to the Kurdish SDF (YPG/YPJ/PYD) in northern Syria, while attempting to form a joint Arab-Kurd force to eastward of the Euphrates, consisting of "former" jihadists and Kurdish militants. All the airstrikes and chemical-weapons incidents since then have been meaningless PR stunts. Personally, I think that Russia has made secret agreements to allow Iran to develop an indigenous copy of the S-300, which will then be deployed in Syria as part of an upgraded and modernised air-defence network to deter future foreign involvement, but only after the full defeat of Western proxy forces in Syria. Installing S-300s now would prematurely provoke the West into finding a rationale to justify harsher actions against Syria, Russia, and Iran. However, if Russia and Iran were to wait to install S-300s until the defeat of Western proxies in Syria, there would be no excuse for (further) Western intervention.

Posted by: Daniel | Sep 23, 2018 12:50:45 PM | 35

adamski

It wont happen anything, just look how Israel have reacted afterwards:

Israel determined to stop Iran in Syria, PM tells Putin
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/middleeast/top-stories/israel-determined-to-stop-iran-in-syria-pm-tells-putin/ar-BBNwUxu

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23, 2018 12:52:59 PM | 36

paul

I'm sick and tired of everyone who criticizes Putin as he deserved being dismissed as idiots who want WW3. There are many many options for showing serious resistance to Israel's impunity far far far short of WW3. This is as clear as anything could be. Such attacks on Putin critics are dishonest and should stop.

Indeed, apparently defending yourself will start WW3, as you say there are of course many other ways. Putin simply do not want to respond in any way at all.

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23, 2018 12:56:10 PM | 37

A couple of observations about this article:

1. The Israelis made a huge mistake. They have completed over 200 missions into Syria to bomb Iranian installations or weapon transfers to Hezbollah essentially without interference from Russia. Russia has now threatened to enforce a no fly zone for Israelis inside the Syrian border. That could involve the use of the S-300 or S-400 missile defense system. However, it seems unlikely that the Israeli F-16 would have used the Russian intelligence aircraft as a cover considering the working relationship Israel has with Russia (or else stupidity has no bounds for Israeli pilots). As Putin said, that probably was a tragic set of circumstances.

2. The sophisticated Russian radar system and ability to track Israeli jets calls into question (again) the shooting down of MH17. When the passenger jet was shot down, Ukraine was mobilizing for an offensive against the separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian jets were flying sorties (the presumed target of the Buk missile launcher). It's clear after news conference today by the Russian military spokesman that Russia would have been monitoring Ukraine troop movements and jets with sophisticated radar and satellite imagery. Why hasn't the Russian military produced those for proof of innocence? The photos certainly must exist.

Instead, according to RT, in the last few days, the Russian military released their latest attempt to obfuscate the Dutch investigation which involved tracing the serial numbers of the Buk used to bring down the passenger jet (https://www.rt.com/news/438596-mh17-downing-russian-briefing/):

".......The Russian military on Monday said they had traced them [serial number] to a missile which had the producer serial number 8868720.

Speaking to journalists, Gen. Nikolay Parshin showed a document trail of the Buk missile. According to the documents, some of which have been declassified for the presentation, it was produced at a military plant in Dolgoprudny in the Moscow region in 1986.

The missile was shipped from the plant on December 29, 1986 and delivered to military unit 20152 located in what is now Ukraine. It is now called 223rd anti-aircraft defense regiment of the Ukrainian armed forces, the report said. The unit took part in Kiev's crackdown on rebels in eastern Ukraine in June 2014, the general said......."my insert in brackets

I'm confident that this will be just another Russian hoax (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2014/07/24/caught-in-a-lie-compelling-evidence-russia-lied-about-the-buk-linked-to-mh17/), or there is a reasonable explanation. However, there is a large body of evidence pinning the responsibility for the 300 lives lost on the Russian military and/or the separatists.

Posted by: craigsummers | Sep 23, 2018 12:57:29 PM | 38

"...cross the line of civilized relations."

I wonder if the Russian military is aware of the parable of The Scorpion and the Frog)?

Posted by: Ross | Sep 23, 2018 12:59:55 PM | 39

What a load of nonsense. I don't believe the event as described at all.

"1 minute": nobody can convince me that the Russians weren't aware of all the F-16's and everything else from the moment they took off.

The amazing non-integrated yet integrated air defense system where the Syrians aren't at all aware of which Russian planes are in the sky and where and will fire without coordination?

Fuck if that was true there would be raining Russian planes all over the place.

I refuse to believe as badly of either the Russians or the Syrians as this story demands.

People seriously believe this nonsense? The Russians are seriously trying to sell it?

No way.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 23, 2018 1:04:17 PM | 40

..."the recovery of the remains of Israeli soldiers from earlier wars"....

Which wars were those, I wonder...
I interpreted this statement as if there was a request by the Israelis for the Russians to launch a search and recovering of remains of Israeli soldiers fallen on ISIS territory while fighting along ISIS....In a certain way, i interpet this statement as a definitive end of Russian coverage for Israeli shenaningans in Syria, meaning that from now on, everything will go public....
Well, the retaliation has started just with this briefing, me thinks...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 23, 2018 1:07:07 PM | 41

thanks b.. yes - you have been proven right, along with some of the posters here at moa.. meanwhile israel does another pr campaign claiming otherwise.. i wouldn't expect anything different..

@12 S.. good post.. thanks..

@35 daniel.. interesting conjecture.. thanks.

Posted by: james | Sep 23, 2018 1:11:12 PM | 42

@41 sasha.. i think you are right about that too.. ps - pat lang comment earlier... pat is quite objective when it comes to israel / usa relationship.. his site hasn't really focused much on the syrian dynamic of late..

Posted by: james | Sep 23, 2018 1:14:36 PM | 43

When I was young, I set myself to read the whole Bible, Old and New Testaments, cover to cover. Our minister and the Christian Education director were all happy to praise the Bible Heroes like Joshua and Jacob and Solomon and such, and their triumphs over the non-Chosen People as they worked toward Zion. Also read all kinds of war books, hero-worshiping “fighter aces” and Audie Murphys and Alvin Yorks, Ended up enlisting in the US Army in 1966, and got to go to Vietnam and take part in that war thing, discovering what it is really all about — best captured in “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Catch-22.”

I finally got over the fascination with the Israelites and their claimed special relationship with their YHWH. Turns out, that modern Israelites seem to take their behavioral cues from the stratagems and ploys and putting-mud-people-to-the-sword-and-taking-their stuff-and-enslaving-their-children and all that.

Looking for clues to behavior of the Likudniks and the elites of Israel? It’s worth a re-read of the first 12 books of the Old Testament, with attention to the deceits and slaughters and repeated “Golden Idol, worship Moloch”-type falling-always-from-YHWH-and-decreeing-that-all-is-fogiven. Got to give good marks for consistency.

And recall that by acclaim, in the Israeli press even, there are ELEVEN commandments, not 10 — the eleventh being “Thou shalt not be a Freier (sucker), but shall make Freiers of everyone else (including your co-religionists.) Here’s an explanation, in context: https://www.haaretz.com/1.4955222 And for those still harboring some forlorn hope that there might be “justice for the Philistines,” there is this reminder: https://mondoweiss.net/2009/07/jpost-memo-to-obama-israel-doesnt-keep-its-word-on-settlements/ You don’t see it bruited about so much any more, but often the Israeli rulers and ordinary people refer to the US Empire as “Uncle Sucker.”

Not much hope of any change “on the ground,” other than the “growth” of Greater Israel. And particularly perilous, since thanks to perfidy and subterfuge, the Israelites now have between 100 and what, 600 nuclear weapons, maybe even a much betterment of weapons than the power the ancient Israelites projected by carrying the Ark of the Covenant before them as they “settled” the territories of others...

Posted by: JTMcPhee | Sep 23, 2018 1:22:00 PM | 44

@Posted by: craigsummers | Sep 23, 2018 12:57:29 PM | 38

Well, after watching the briefing by Maj.Gen. Konashenkov, I got with that the IL20 was in patrolling mission to the North, then the Israelis suddenly warned of an attack operation at the North, thus the IL20 aircraft was called to its base to avoid any collateral damage, finding that where the attack was directed at was the Latakia coast in the West, just where its landing base was located, and moreover without minimal time of prewarning to land...Thus, it seems to me that the real target, as I ventured at other blog in previous days, was the IL20 itself, perhaps because of the intelligence it could have gathered now in the depths of the Mediterranean, and this could well be the case, especially after watching the criminal maneuver of one of the Israeli F16 approaching the surveillance aircraft to secure it would be targeted by the Syrian AD...

I think this is why Israel has risked finishing its priviledged relation with Russia...because the data which went to the sea along with the IL20 were far more valuable...

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 23, 2018 1:24:14 PM | 45

Sasha @45

Interesting theory.

Posted by: craigsummers | Sep 23, 2018 1:29:00 PM | 46

At least there was no softening of the Russian MOD's stance as to Israel's culpability in the IL downing. The next few days should give us an idea of just how "bad" Israel feels about its actions. Iran is probably trying to take advantage of the apparent lull to see if Israel can be provoked into another strike.
To a couple of posters that were wondering why Israel would want to risk harming its relationship with Russia I say this:
Israel doesn't want Russia to help it keep peace with its neighbours. It wants Russia to get the hell out of the way so that it can continue Syria's destruction and then destroy Iran as planned. Israel would just prefer if the US/Nato did the dirty work. With the whole region ruled by isis or daesh or whatever they could then expand and annex lands at will under the guise of protecting itself/fighting terroism.

Posted by: PleaseBeleafMe | Sep 23, 2018 1:33:23 PM | 47

The full transcript of the briefing for those who can’t see the subtitles
Posted by: S | Sep 23, 2018 8:53:07 AM | 5

Against this background, hostile actions taken by the Israeli Air Force, committed against the Russian Il-20 aircraft, go beyond the civilized relations.

Objective data of September 17 events presented to you today show that the military leadership of Israel either does not appreciate the level of relations with Russia, or does not control individual commands and commanders who understood that their actions would lead to tragedy.

You couln't get a more strongly worded statement than that. Without question, the blowback Israel will receive from Russia will be nothing on the scale it has ever received from Russia before.

Posted by: BM | Sep 23, 2018 1:37:37 PM | 48

This report published by Vesti News, incides in the issue of the remains of Israeli soldiers requested to be rescued by the Russians...I think gets additionally clear that these were Israeli soldiers who fell in ISIS territory...and curiously, or not so, the Russians went under ISIS attack once the operation of rescue initiated...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c7uyXqZ3sY

I think the Russians have collected enough crap in return fro their good will from the Israelis to date....

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 23, 2018 2:01:56 PM | 49

One thing that hasn't been covered by this or anything the Israelis stated, is the role of the french frigate that supposedly launched a missile during this event. How come we haven't heard much more about this, neither from the Russian or the Israelis.

Posted by: Brad allen | Sep 23, 2018 2:10:49 PM | 50

#29: You nailed it. Lots of tough talk by people who don't have to face the consequences.

Posted by: worldblee | Sep 23, 2018 2:34:10 PM | 51

".....Investigation Results"

very predictable and an investigation which is not. It seems to me that is rather taken from some script.

Posted by: partizan | Sep 23, 2018 2:36:43 PM | 52

Astonishingly enough, after days of hundreds of comments on this issue, and eventhough at Debka File they are quite concerned as to how this will change things in Syria, there is almost none reaction at every of the blogs which comment on Syrian war events....

Is that not strange? I find it so....

Posted by: Sasha | Sep 23, 2018 2:44:35 PM | 53

Laguerre @7 et al

Indeed.

Anyway, concrete events are underway. The Russians have flown four il-76MD heavy airlift aircraft into Hymeim airbase. One of this type was used to fly in the S-400 system after the Turkish shootdown of the Su-22. What do they carry? Who knows so speculate away! But all will be revealed in due course.

The Israelis, by trying their lying BS on the Russians (of all people), instead of taking responsibility and offering compensation, have fscked up big time.


Posted by: Yonatan | Sep 23, 2018 2:45:59 PM | 54

Yes,what about the missile launches detected fromFrench frigate?

Posted by: Bevin Kacon | Sep 23, 2018 3:00:47 PM | 55

Nope Russia wont do anything,

"How will this tragedy affect Russia's relations with Israel? It is clear that it is up to the leadership [of Russia] how to address this issue, and I can only make assumptions. I think that the decision will be made taking into account the long-standing good relations between Russia and Israel, and therefore a sharp u-turn like the abolition of a visa-free regime, not to mention something more serious, is hardly possible here," he said.
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201809231068271086-russia-syria-israel-airspace-aircraft/

Posted by: Zanon | Sep 23, 2018 3:06:13 PM | 56

Did Israel ever took responsibility? They never did and they never will. And they are great at hiding behind, such as hiding behind the IL-20 in Syria in 2018 or behind the phalangists in Lebanon in 1982.

Posted by: Jean | Sep 23, 2018 3:18:58 PM | 57

Russia cannot do something to a more powerful nation. Israel can destroy Russia through actions from the US. Russia is making angry sounds now for domestic consumption but will never be brave enough to defy the superior Israeli military.

Posted by: Realistic | Sep 23, 2018 3:27:37 PM | 58

It is a pleasure to read the trolls here bloviating about this or that.

Russia and China are taking away the war engine for Western control and that makes those that pay the trolls unhappy.

Guess what! Money does not buy civilization. It is earned by living a history of getting along and sharing, contrary to the purpose of usury.

We may be finally seeing reason prevail over faith. A tip of the scales long awaited.

Go long Russia and China

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 23, 2018 3:39:02 PM | 59

it still doesn't explain why the syrian air-defence operators decided to let rip with an s200 knowing full well that a russian airframe was in the vicinity of the missile's vector

i reckon there will be russian 'advisors' with every air-defence detachment from now on

Posted by: spike | Sep 23, 2018 3:46:20 PM | 60

@58. Russia is playing for time. It is not weak and everyone including the U.S. knows it. However Putin and all in authority understand that Russia has to become fully impervious to the U.S. aggression, which it can and will but it requires time. As the time passes so Israel and the U.S. will weaken, giving Russia a crushing advantage.

Posted by: Beibdnn. | Sep 23, 2018 4:03:48 PM | 61

it still doesn't explain why the syrian air-defence operators decided to let rip with an s200 knowing full well that a russian airframe was in the vicinity of the missile's vector

The briefing explained that Syrian AD does not have the IFF codes to recognize Russian planes, so the radar blip would have been labelled as "enemy" or "unknown". The operators therefore might not have been aware. The Russians have said they cannot give these codes to any other party so the only solution is what you suggest.

Posted by: evilempire | Sep 23, 2018 4:19:48 PM | 62

@54 Excellent news Yonatan. Another great example of "watch not what they say, but what they do"..

Posted by: Lozion | Sep 23, 2018 4:32:21 PM | 63

There are several important points in the Russian presentation:
1.Israel lied about where the attacks would be.
Israel said the attacks would be in the North, they were actually in the West.
2. Because Russia believed Israel, they called their plane back from its route in the North.
3. Once the plane was hit, Russia asked Israel to recall their planes at once so rescue could take place. Israel didn't recall its planes for 50 minutes. All downed Russians died.
4. Israel lied to the world's press saying it was already back in Israel when the Russian plane was hit, it wasn't.
Conclusion:
I believe the plane was a target, if not THE target, it may have had much to do with the exceptional info the Russians had on what was happening in Idlib.

I also read that the Israeli planes shot some missiles from the same trajectory as the French ship, haven't seen any follow up on this. If so, Israel was doing its damnest to start a war.

I don't believe Israel will never be able to rely on Russia for anything ever again. It's military are boiling mad; just watch the presenter's face and listen to his tone.

Posted by: frances | Sep 23, 2018 4:33:31 PM | 64

Looks like S-300 are comming for Syria.

https://twitter.com/Syrian_Uruk/status/1043927638778294272

Posted by: Viking | Sep 23, 2018 4:49:28 PM | 65

Sasha 45
Just read your earlier post. I didn't have time to read every ones prior to posting mine; looks we are on the same page:)

Posted by: frances | Sep 23, 2018 5:11:18 PM | 66

@64 frances

Auslander, who lives in Crimea and comments at the Saker, said he was at a service for the deceased Russians and the mood among the Russian military is that of "ice cold anger". I can well believe it. Another comment over there by Larchmonter says that this is Shoigu's to call. Putin understands that this wound is a military loss and must be settled to the satisfaction of the military. It's honor now, and we will see all of honorable Russia cleave to the one course.

~~

The trolls here - who are numerous and now talk to each other for lack of any friends - are so lost to morality as to insult these dead Russians by demeaning Russia, and they have made the same mistake as Israel, in thinking that empty words will matter when the Russians, who are slow to mount but fast to ride, lay down the new rules.

Never poke the bear. What was so hard to understand about this?

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 23, 2018 5:21:46 PM | 67

Just read this:
Desert Hawk
🇸🇾 شب
‏ @Syrian_Uruk
15h15 hours ago

"As the recent #Israeli, #French #airsrikes took place on Latakia, Pres Bashar al-Assad would flying in the night to Moscow for meet with President Putin after signing the Idlib agreement. He would fly to Russia through #Latakia Syrian Airport

It was an #NATO attempt to kill him."

Does anyone know if this is accurate? Looks like Israel and co may have had quite a game plan.

Posted by: frances | Sep 23, 2018 5:33:18 PM | 68

The "Russians" were less than soft here against Israel. In fact they were out in the open with their collusion as if this was something normal - and even asked: why are you doing this to us after all that we've been doing for you?
We all know Russia has been a playing ground for and controlled by Jewish interests from the beginning of the USSR (its "collapse" was a controlled demolition by the same people) but expected a national revival lately (in fact for 20 years already), and to be an exemple for others to follow. But with time, it looks more and more less likely, in fact quite the opposite.
Even if "Russia" establishes a "no fly zone" against Israel, as they seem to suggest elsewhere, it will rather protect Israel LAND from outside attacks rather than limit its power which is INTERNATIONAL.
It seems to me that the only political and military figures left that truly dare speak truth to power are Nasrallah, Rouhani and... Erdogan (though grossly misunderstood here) Really sad...

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 5:35:46 PM | 69

@69
I intended to say "around Israel" rather than "against Israel" in my previous post. Sorry.

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 5:41:04 PM | 70

Grieved @67--

Yes, the trolls are insipid, incestuous and irksome and have no clue as to the consequences of provoking the Bear's ire.

As I stated here and at Saker's, the ultimate--strategic--fault lay with Russia's policy, the tactical fault clearly lays with the Zionists. The policy has now been amended, and that error will not recur. The Zionists on the other hand will certainly try to attack again--indeed, some items I've read elsewhere have said Russia has already intercepted Zionist jets but provide no attribution.

The big complication factor, however IMO, is the terrorist attack in Iran--the Iranian reaction is very much Hard Ball with nothing rhetorically off the table--Trump might as well have pulled the triggers such are the responses vehemence. Will Trump try to bar Rouhani from attending the UNGA session that just began as Rouhani says he intends to confront Trump?

Meanwhile over in what for the moment is a dark corner, Russia intercepted two Ukrainian naval vessels in vicinity of Kerch Strait Bridge. And nary a word about the very welcome developments in Korea.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 23, 2018 6:09:56 PM | 71

This Craig Summers guy is a Bellingcat quoting Neo Con joke of a troll. His propaganda is pathetic, way below the intelligence level and knowledge base of this website.

Posted by: j | Sep 23, 2018 6:31:56 PM | 72

I think this might be an airborne version of the British "novice" nonsense :)

Hopefully no one actually died.

How can people believe that the safety of valuable Russian aircraft is so easily and nearly effortlessly at the complete mercy of circumstance? It would be complete madness if it was the case.

Okay who's next to concoct some ridiculous story no one should believe in? Oh the Norwegians you say? Sure seems like it :P Maybe it can manage to be silly enough to wake people the fuck up :D

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 23, 2018 6:48:26 PM | 73

Trolls begin to appear in numbers when things are hotting up and Israel is under particular scrutiny. The narrative must be switched from Israel’s stab in Russia’s back to portraying Putin as weak in order to destroy his image as a strong leader (somebody even posted a nasty attack on Putin using my username.) They want to force us onto the back foot, having to defend Putin instead of trying to analyse the repercussions of this event which will be significant and which in Russia at least will never be forgotten

Posted by: Lochearn | Sep 23, 2018 6:58:11 PM | 74

@68 and news for all New data
Assad was the target of the attack on Latakia. NATO's Israeli...
NATO's Israeli partnership attempted to assassinate him while he would travel to Russia by the Latakia airport. He should fly to Russia through the Syrian airport of Latakia . NATO took a green light to carry out the assassination of President Assad, by bombing his convoy before 23/09/2018.
https://dimpenews.com/2018/09/23/assad-was-the-target-of-the-at...
New data: Russian Ilyushin Il-20 was shot down by the missile of an...
NATO's Israeli partnership attempted to assassinate him while he would travel to Russia by the Latakia airport. 23/09/2018. https://dimpenews.com/2018/09/21/new-data-russian-ilyushin-il-2...

New data: Russian Ilyushin Il-20 was shot down by the missile of an Israeli warplane F16……
A European source of secret military intelligence, reveals new evidence about the fall of the Russian aircraft in Syria. According to this source:
After analyzing all the information and satellite images related to the crash of the Russian aircraft UAV 20 / IL 20, which belongs to the group of so-called « ELECTINT electronic intelligence »
we affirm:
1) The Russian aircraft was hit by an air-to-air missile that hit its target while it was 35.6 km away from its airbase in Hameimem at Latakia.
2) The plane was hit at 22:56 Damascus time.
3) The aircraft that launched the missile is a F / 16D / F 16D class, type 16 .
4) The missile launched by this aircraft is a short-range sidewind, AIM-9.
5) It was launched against the Russian aircraft from a distance of six kilometers and two hundred meters (6200 meters).
6) The mission of the Russian aircraft was to play an effective role in the dealing of the missiles launched by Israeli aircraft, by transferring accurate information about Israeli air operations directly to the command center and units of the Syrian Air Defence Forces .
7) His role described above was the reason that it had to be destroyed.
8) It was hit by the commander of the Israeli air force squad , who participated in the latest wave of air strikes against Syria.
dimpenews.com

Posted by: Dilara | Sep 23, 2018 7:19:15 PM | 75

@ Greived, karlof1 and other barflies

What I thought of while reading your comments was the recent claim the empire will strike Venezuela "soon". I meant to comment about that because recently China just inked a $5 Billion or so loan and doubt they would let empire take over Venezuela quietly.

The pot boils and then what? The mad dog of private finance led social organization and its poison of usury will finally die of its own cancer of hate and thinking yourself better than the next person....thats my hope.

This needs to occur for our species to attempt civilization which was a mythical joke under the aegis of private finance organized society. We need to stop making war on each other. What is so hard to understand about that concept?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 23, 2018 7:20:32 PM | 76

The possibility of an intended narrative in which France would take the blame for shooting down the Ilyushin, whether or not this actually happened, as opposed to the alternative in which Syrian friendly fire hits the Ilyushin after four Israeli F-16s take cover in the plane's radar shadow, leading to an expected angry Russian response in which the Russians hit the Auvergne frigate, France is able to invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and US, British and other NATO member warships currently in the eastern Mediterranean come to France's aid, Sixth Cavalry style, comes to mind as suggested by Joaquin Flores' article at Fort Russ and Tom Luongo's article at Strategic Culture.

https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-analysis-russian-disinfo-campaign-blames-israel-for-il-20-plane-downing-yet-exonerates-france/

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2018/09/19/israel-failed-attempt-start-wwiii-beginning-end-syria.html

By blaming Israel, Russia gives France and the rest of NATO no excuse to escalate the conflict and now has leverage over Israel's ability to act in Syria by giving Syria S300 anti-aircraft missile defence systems.

A late birthday present for the Syrian President; Satanyahu's efforts to prevent any Iranian-backed forces from coming anywhere near Hezbollah and the Golan Heights dissolving into fine grey ash; the IDF's worst nightmare becoming reality; and the Russian President having the last laugh on Satanyahu, remembering the Israeli leader's foetid presence and the sulfurous fumes emanating from the fellow at this year's Victory Day parade: all very enjoyable from this MoA commenter's POV!

Posted by: Jen | Sep 23, 2018 7:35:58 PM | 77

@64 Frances
"I believe the plane was a target, if not THE target, it may have had much to do with the exceptional info the Russians had on what was happening in Idlib."
Your Conclusion is confirmed by https://dimpenews.com/2018/09/21/new-data-russian-ilyushin-il-2...
The mission of the Russian aircraft was to play an effective role in the dealing of the missiles launched by Israeli aircraft, by transferring accurate information about Israeli air operations directly to the command center and units of the Syrian Air Defence Forces .
His role described above was the reason that it had to be destroyed.
It was hit by the commander of the Israeli air force squad , who participated in the latest wave of air strikes against Syria.

Posted by: Dilara | Sep 23, 2018 7:46:52 PM | 78

Sunny Runny Burger @ 73:

You must know a great deal about the Norwegian temperament and its gullibility. I was just reading this article the other day.

"Norway didn’t know much about Libya yet helped bomb it into chaos, state report finds"
https://www.rt.com/news/438683-norway-libya-war-report/

Coming soon to a TV or online channel near you ... "Norway knew nothing about Russian military capabilities in Syria yet takes blame for shooting down the Ilyushin transport plane".

Posted by: Jen | Sep 23, 2018 7:47:41 PM | 79

Friar Ockham "From a military point of view fiddling around with a country of about 8 million people makes little sense".
Russia isn't just fiddling with the Zionist outpost, they are up against the entire wealth and control of the international heeb bankers; a multi headed beast with tens of trillions of dollars and millions of military personnel.

Posted by: grr | Sep 23, 2018 8:20:25 PM | 80

Don't think any Europeans were involved in this. They seem to have prepared for strikes (including chemical incident) should Russia/Syria have started the Idlib offensive.
The agreement with Turkey prevented this.

The attack on Latakia was Israel's plan B.

And it seems to have been caused by Russia's refusal to "get Iran out of Syria".

From September 6

Having pushed Iranian-backed forces away from the frontier with the Israeli-held Golan Heights in July, the Russian president is defying the Trump administration’s demand to expel Iran completely from Syria after the civil war there winds down. With Washington’s credibility on the ropes both in Moscow and Tehran, and the U.S. eager to end its involvement in Syria, the Russians and Iranians may well prevail.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday urged the U.S. to abandon its demands for Iran to surrender its influence in the region, describing them as “unprofessional and unrealistic.’’

Neither Iran nor Turkey are friends of Israel. Russia was the only one they had left.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 23, 2018 8:22:48 PM | 81

I'd like to understand the mechanics of what happened better. Does this scenario represent them?

A visual that I imagined to overview the complexity of the 14 seconds worth of events would be similar to the four F16s cruising above Austin, Tx when the execute command is given for them to afterburner and hit an exact point in geo-location where an airliner will be while descending to land at DFW International (140 miles distant) within a plus or minus count off of one thousand one, one thousand two. That’s the margin of error required to stack these maneuvers together.

This mission would have been dry run and practiced by all parties for a month before all were competent to green light it. The French frigate was never in jeopardy because the Tornados had position. Any 'lock' on the F-16s by any means would have been eliminated by the Tornados too. Position is everything. The RuAF radar and all operators would have immediately recognized the situation.

The result of the mission is that now both Russia and the US have publicly issued 'ungrateful Israel' statements which has Netanyahu backed into a corner from which he has to choose one or the other. He will not be afforded the luxury of vacillating between them any longer.

Posted by: mrd | Sep 23, 2018 8:32:42 PM | 82

@81, somebody
"Russia was the only one (friend of Israel) they had left."
And is it no more? Because “unprofessional and unrealistic’’ doesn't mean at all they refused to do it, they simply stated they CAN'T do it.

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 8:40:06 PM | 83

Some of whats coming out of Russia is for domestic consumption. Lot of people including military unhappy with Putins comments. When things die down in the end Israel and Russia are still good. Israel probably backs off a bit for awhile since none of these attacks mean much to them in any event. People have short memories and after some time then its back to business as usual

Posted by: Pft | Sep 23, 2018 8:54:56 PM | 84

I always wondered about this….especially about the USS Liberty …if Israel I goes into an active/live Nuke arsenal mode…and any intelligence collecting craft in the area …be they supposed friend or foe….be immediately deemed to be destroyed before the collected intelligence would reach intelligence agencies as to their actual capabilities? They`ve never revealed or let nuke inspectors inspect their atomic energy facilities..One of the biggest unknowns in todays world is….”how many nukes/what type/ does this ass wipe country have? If the USS Liberty had picked up on those frequencies as the nuke signatures became “active”….is it the reason the “chosen” chose to completely eliminate that ship? Did the world know at that time that they actually had nuclear capabilities? I`ve never heard testimony from a Liberty surviver that said as much. Lets fast forward to the IL-20 awacs or whatever type data collecting craft it was. Did Israel go into a totally active nuclear mode of its weapons systems as shots were starting that the IL-20 would of collected …and knowing that…they became expendable immediately?Like Sasha said “because the data which went to the sea along with the IL20 were far more valuable…” I can`t recall any other examples where Israel decimated a “friendly” for no obvious reasons and …of course…lied their way out of it. Their technology is second to none and I`d be willing to bet….so are their nuclear capabilities! As would be their space/satellite communications systems. IL-20 could of known all that in the seconds that led up to its demise. Maybe? Just another possibility. Then of course the obvious fact… Israel was gonna do another sortie on Sovereign Syria and Putin was going to let it happen! What? Why? Had the IL-20 landed ….Russia still had a good idea that particular building was about to be destroyed.What is going on? What does I have on Putin? Pictures of some forbidden exploit like they have on every US legislator? Shit don`t make sense to any of us yet no one has the ability/balls to remove this cause of hate &discontent of human suffering on this planet. So I`m supposed to believe everything is just great …so I guess I`ll go have another beer and watch some more of the game. Jesus!

Posted by: pope francis | Sep 23, 2018 8:57:18 PM | 85

This incident has attracted a massive number of various theories, but that is not surprising. (Also quite a few ridiculous trolls.) So therefor I guess I am obliged to "go with the flow" and contribute my very own stupid asinine theories as well.

I have no idea at what level the decision was made to endanger, or perhaps even outright destroy, the big Russian jet. (Obviously the lower the better.) Now, people may perhaps recall that just prior to the Israeli attack (leaving out the Russia-Turkey deal) there was a huge amount of stress and pressure for Trump to "do something" about the fact that the (stupid) "effort" was just at the point of utter failure. So probably what Trump did was to simply make a typical "third party" move in order to provide a "finale rack" show of "slam the door on the way out" action. So they hired Israel. Very Big Mistake.

The Israelis did something incredibly stupid. It would have been stupid even if the Russian plane had not been destroyed. I of course don't know any details, but can analyze a bit from the Russian perspective. Of course they are as mad as stuck hornets. But what else? If I was them, I would be in shock. Why? Because this proves that the Israelis are stupid. Period.

No matter how you look at it, this was 100% USDA Grade "A" Stupid. And then from that comes the scary realization that you are in fact dealing with stupid people. Stupid people with a substantial military. Not good. Not good at all. Handling people with guns is one thing. Handling stupid people with guns is something else.

So that will probably change the Russian perspective. They will now have to factor in the extreme stupidity. This will turn out to be a hard job.

Posted by: blues | Sep 23, 2018 8:59:28 PM | 86

@84 Pft - "...then it's back to business as usual"

Not quite. While the diplomatic relationship has no particular reason to change from this incident, the military control of regional airspace and the protocols of deconfliction, absolutely do.

So when it goes back to business as usual, Russia will have tightened the screws on Israel's capabilities in Syria, and probably Lebanon, and perhaps even the Golan. It's happening already, and more will become clear over the next few days, I would think. Also there's the matter of whatever materiel it is that the Russians are busily landing into Syria in those military transports right now.

It may look the same on the surface. But it's already changed in the fundamentals, where it counts.

What's coming out of Russia is not for domestic consumption. It is domestic consumption. It's the reaction of the entire nation, of which its leadership is a part. One will misread this will of Russia at one's peril.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 23, 2018 9:10:16 PM | 87

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 8:40:06 PM | 83

The Israelis have the problem of their preventive doctrine. They can't sit still and wait something out. They always make things worse by striking.

A Turkish - Iranian - Russian - Syrian - Hezbollah coalition at their border is an Israeli nightmare. What do they do? They try to frighten Assad (whose base is in Latakia) into a US - Russian - Israeli deal to get Iranian and Hezbollah forces out of Syria downing a Russian plane in the crossfire.
Attacking the very part of Syria Russia defends for the sake of stability.

Russia had no reason to try to get Iran to back away from Syria before their plane got struck, they have less reason now. Russia has a very good reason from now on to prevent any further Israeli strikes.

Oil price is well over 70 Dollar. The US can add sanctions on end, they will not be able to hurt Russia.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 23, 2018 9:22:05 PM | 88

Has anyone heard that Israeli jets turned back over Lebanese airspace on a bombing run post IL downing this week?

If Putin’s wont give Assad the S-300’s, give them to Lebanon instead

Posted by: Anunnaki | Sep 23, 2018 9:43:19 PM | 89

H/T via an Israeli skeptic of the Israeli presentation; IDF presented "information", Russians countered with "data". Just the illustrated facts from an anon self-described "map expert":

Military Advisor (@miladvisor)
@miladvisor
6h
Russian MoD presented a detailed 3D timeline of Il-20 downing in Syria on September 17. pic.twitter.com/efaJZnqmYB
View photo ·
5h
Replying to @miladvisor
Israeli Air Force had notified Russia of its planned attacks on Syrian targets simultaneously with the beginning of the strikes (1 min before), violating 2015 bilateral agreements to prevent incidents in Syrian airspace. Air traffic on 17 Sep 2018 at 21:40 pic.twitter.com/r87g7sQAnG
Replying to @miladvisor
The Israeli Air Force misled Russia by providing wrong information about the area of the planned air strikes in Syria on September 17, thus preventing the Russian Il-20 from moving to a safe zone. Israel provided information about strikes in 'north' Syria instead of 'west'. pic.twitter.com/YwDgdxMTBj
1:08 PM - 23 Sep 2018
5h
Replying to @miladvisor
The Il-20 commander being in the north of Syria received a task to leave the mission area in north Syrian Idlib region and return back to the military base (in south area) while Israeli jets attacked western Latakia province. pic.twitter.com/DPbbbHsTby
5h
Replying to @miladvisor
Russian MoD stressed that talk was conducted in Russian, Russian Defense Ministry has a record of the
5h
Replying to @miladvisor
At 21:51 the Syrian AD forces started to repel the Israeli attack and launched anti-aircraft missiles. After the strike, Israeli jets took a patrolling area 70km west off the Syrian coast, set up jamming and probably prepared to attack again. Air traffic on 17 Sep 2018 at 21:51 pic.twitter.com/wJqEMHTU5I
4h
Replying to @miladvisor
At 21:59 one of the Israeli airplanes started maneuvering towards the Syrian coast approaching the Il-20 that was coming to airbase. Syrian AD units considered it as another attack. Air traffic on 17 Sep 2018 at 22:04 pic.twitter.com/H9qyCVNWV3
4h
Replying to @miladvisor
At 22:03 a Syrian S-200 anti-aircraft missile engaged a larger and closer target – Il-20 aircraft. pic.twitter.com/n27DFHGFk6
4h
Replying to @miladvisor
At 22:07 the Russian Il-20 survey airplane went off the radars. pic.twitter.com/h0ehZpMkaE
4h
Replying to @miladvisor
Israeli jets continued patrolling in area till 22:40. Air traffic on 17 Sep 2018 at 22:25 pic.twitter.com/kRmuyHseav
4h
Replying to @miladvisor
At 22:29 Russian side to demand that Israeli aircraft leave area. At 22:53, 50 min after Il-20 was hit by missile, IAF officer reported :"We left the zone.If you need assistance, we are ready to help". Air traffic on 17 Sep 2018 at 23:01 pic.twitter.com/vBbLHtsZvx

(Edited for brevity)

Hubris gonna getcha.

Posted by: lallarona | Sep 23, 2018 9:44:24 PM | 90

After the initial reports came out my original "hunch" was exactly the scenario presented in comment 75. If Syrian AD does not have Russian IFF codes, then every Syrian AD detachment must already have Russian advisors. If the Russian advisors have dedicated radar with Russian IFF codes, then most assuredly no S-200 missile would have been launched. It would be sheer lunacy for Syrian AD to operate independently without Russian IFF codes in a theatre where Russian air operations are so frequent.

Posted by: evilempire | Sep 23, 2018 9:48:30 PM | 91

I'd have loved to have been a fly on the wall at the meeting on thursday.
I haven't sen anything on how that played out.
Anyone have any limks?
'Ice cold anger' probably covers it.

Posted by: adamski | Sep 23, 2018 9:51:41 PM | 92

@88, somebody
What I see is a circus, for us the laymen, with a lot of real destruction though - which seems to be the real reason for it all. Your logic would be perfect in a logical world but I don't see any trace of it in this circumstances - and I'm pretty sure it's intended.

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 10:10:11 PM | 93

Posted by: pope francis | Sep 23, 2018 8:57:18 PM | 85

Israel's problem is that the fallout of a nuke on their neighbours will get them, too.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 23, 2018 10:16:18 PM | 94

@94, somebody
No, it isn't. Because the nukes are a Jewish invention, meaning that they are fake; they don't exist. It's their longest and biggest con in history.

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 10:44:11 PM | 95

Posted by: Realistic | Sep 23, 2018 3:27:37 PM | 58
"Russia cannot do something to a more powerful nation. Israel can destroy Russia through actions from the US. Russia is making angry sounds now for domestic consumption but will never be brave enough to defy the superior Israeli military."


US already destroyed itself after the 2000 tech bubble burst, it was broke and therefore forced to war as a way to distract US domestic audiences. weak little russia has too many options, but they will lay out the case for israel's actions before taking action. even france is probably figuring out what kind of allies it really has, hence the silence from them. presenting evidence gives numerous countries the perception that doing business with russia is a sound investment.

what does powerful israel offer that the world doesn't have? nukes? n korea has them too. technology? one high speed train? it could of offered leadership in religion which it castrated off to oblivion a long time ago and continues to use deception as a way to conduct warfare. which is basically military option first. what sets them apart from n korea in my mind..... not much except for sanctions.

1. russia can help hezbollah hit dimona/tel aviv/even saudi arabia soon. they can show the world just how "superior" that iron dome works when it can't even hit palestinian garage made rockets.

2. russia can hit saudi arabia and cut the lifeline of the economy of israel/us/etc. and send oil prices sky high thus helping themselves. you will see all EU sanctions come off of iran and russia instantly.

3. russia can drop weapons and supplies to yemen just to fuck with saudi arabia and thus again hurt the US/EU/Israel even with us productions at levels unseen, US domestic consumption still outstrips production levels.

4. russia can even just launch rockets by assad into israel for retaliation since it is logistically sound.

yet russia has not resorted to such low level blowbacks. these are just some Military options that will cripple the entire west and russia will resort to that last, even as others pick violence first. if someone is that powerful they would have blackout all evidence of the shoot down from being presented for all to see....... so much for that superiority.

Posted by: jason | Sep 24, 2018 12:10:49 AM | 96

I hope your trust in the response of Russia is justified. I don't have the confidence in the current Russian government to deal decisively with Israel.

Posted by: Steve | Sep 24, 2018 12:28:15 AM | 97

On the govt side vs the military, I hope Russia: 1.suggests to Russians in Israel that returning to Russia would be prudent along with moving their cash out of the country as well.
2.will no longer allow Israeli goods, services, produce to be purchased by any Russian govt entity.
3.at the request of the Lebanon govt, will close Lebanon air space to all Israeli commercial flights.
On the military side:
1.place s-400s in Damascus.
2.form a Iran/Syria/Russia/Lebanon "iron dome."
3.bring in two new spy planes and give them fighter escorts at all times.
These new disclosures; that Assad was a target at a Russian base no less and that the plane was shot down by Israel are real game changers. I think dark times are ahead.


Posted by: frances | Sep 24, 2018 12:47:03 AM | 98

Posted by: Alligator | Sep 23, 2018 10:10:11 PM | 93

You are correct, probably it was an American plan.

Dimona, by the way, exists.

Posted by: somebody | Sep 24, 2018 4:12:33 AM | 99

Evelyn @8:

USS Liberty.   USS Forrestal was McStain's doing.

Posted by: Ian | Sep 24, 2018 5:25:21 AM | 100

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