Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 08, 2018

Trump Ends The Nuclear Deal With Iran - What's Next?

With a very belligerent speech Trump nixed the nuclear deal with Iran. He also lied a lot in it. Neither is a surprise. The United States only keeps agreements as long as they are to its short term advantage - just ask native Americans. One can never count on the U.S. to keep its word.

Trump will reimpose U.S. sanctions on Iran because:

  • The nuclear deal was negotiated by the Obama administration and thus must be bad;
  • Israel wants to keep Iran as the boogeyman;
  • the Zionists and right wing nuts in the U.S. want the U.S. to attack Iran;
  • MAGA - Trump needs Iran as enemy of the Gulf states to sell more U.S. weapons.

Three European countries, Britain, France and Germany, were naive enough to think they could prevent this. The EU3 offered the U.S. to put additional sanctions on Iran for other pretended reason - ballistic missiles and the Iranian engagement in Syria. I was disgusted when I first read of the plan. It was obvious from the beginning that it  would only discredit these countries AND fail.

Luckily Italy and some eastern European countries shot the effort down at the EU level. They were not willing to sacrifice their credibility over the issue. The nuclear agreement was signed and should be followed by all sides. They pointed out that there was no guarantee from Trump that any additional European effort would change his view.

Over the last weeks some last EU3 attempts to influence Trump were made. They were in vain:

On Friday, Pompeo organized a conference call with his three European counterparts. Sources who were briefed on the call told me Pompeo thanked the E3 for the efforts they had made since January to come up with a formula that will convince Trump not to pull out of the nuclear deal — but made it clear the President wants to take a different direction.
...
After Trump's statement, the European powers want to issue a joint statement which will make it clear they are staying in the Iran deal in an attempt to prevent its collapse.

The sanctions Trump will reintroduce are not just limiting U.S. dealings with Iran, but will also penalize other countries. That will lead to a flurry of protective measures as at least some of those other countries will limit their exposure to U.S. rules and may even introduce counter sanctions:

“We are working on plans to protect the interests of European companies” Maja Kocijancic, EU spokeswoman for foreign affairs, told reporters in Brussel.

Iran will largely stick to the nuclear deal if the EU effectively defends it and does not hinder Iranian deals with European companies. If the EU fails to do so the nuclear agreement will be null and void. Iran will leave the deal. The neoliberal Rouhani government that agreed to the deal will fall and the conservatives will be back. They will defend Iran's sovereignty at all costs.

The U.S. seems to believe it can go back to the same position Obama had build up in the years before the nuclear deal. Iran was under UN sanctions and all countries, including China and Russia, held them up. The Iranian economy was in serious trouble. It needed to negotiate a way out. That situation will not come back.

U.S. credibility has been seriously damaged. Its soft power is gone. Its hard power has shown to be inadequate in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

China and Russia are both making huge deals with Iran and are now effectively its protectors. While they have no common ideology all three oppose a globalized world under exclusive "western" rules. They have the economic power, the population and resources to do so. Neither the U.S. nor Europe has come to terms with that.

Iran has not only new allies but gained in the Middle East because of U.S., Israeli and Saudi stupidity. The wars on Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen have all strengthened Iran's position while it largely kept largely out of them. The recent election in Lebanon went well for the 'resistance' camp. Within Lebanon Hizbullah can no longer be challenged. The upcoming elections in Iraq will result in another Iran-friendly government. The Syrian army is winning the war waged against the country. The U.S. position in Afghanistan is hopeless. Saudi Arabia is now in a fight with the UAE over the war on Yemen. The GCC spat with Qatar is still unsolved.

While Israel wants to keep Iran as a boogeyman to divert attention from its genocidal campaign against Palestinians, it does not want a large war. Hizbullah in Lebanon has enough missiles to make modern life in Israel untenable. A war on Iran could easily end up with Tel Aviv in flames.

There are some people in the Trump administration who will want to wage war on Iran. The Bush administration also had such plans. But any war gaming of a campaign against Iran ended badly for the U.S. and its allied states. The Gulf countries are extremely vulnerable. Their oil output could be shut down within days. That situation has not changed. The U.S. is now in a worse strategic position than it was after the invasion of Iraq. As long as somewhat sane people lead the Pentagon they will urge the White House not to launch such an endeavor.

The U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal is a huge mistake. Defense Secretary Mattis spoke against it. Will Trump make an even bigger mistake despite the opinion of his military advisors? Will he wage war on Iran?

Posted by b on May 8, 2018 at 02:21 PM | Permalink

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Ground operations on Iran mean immediate military intervention from China and Russia, neither of whom can afford to let the US take over that country - for strategic geographic and economic reasons. That was already clear to me back in 2003 when that idiot Perle stated he wanted to send the troops to Tehran; it's even more obvious now, after all that happened in Syria.
If EU had any sense, it would threaten total trade war against the US if they ever touched any EU firm over the Iran sanctions. The US has no legal basis for this, and it's time to make them pay for it - not only at UN and WTO levels, but by levelling economic sanctions against the USA as well.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 8, 2018 2:33:48 PM | 1

Congrats to the dimwitted MAGAClowns.

Your dumb god emperor is nothing more than a humiliated little poodle for the Israeli and Saudi regimes.

Europe, Russia, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and China all just became a single unified block against the increasingly irrelevant American empire.

Posted by: gorlog | May 8, 2018 2:34:17 PM | 2

Jesus, the speech was filled with so many lies and innuedos and pure psychological disinformation tropes I had to write down every one not to forget them.
Speech was sounding as something netanyahu had written for Trump. Which of course its all about, Israel.

Lets see if the phony EU states stand against US sanctions or if they like the pathetic media, already paint Iran as the new enemy.

Trump is a neocon, no doubt about that, we must stop hoping/supporting this dangerous man.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 2:35:54 PM | 3

@3 Why dont you list then here for us to know as well? I myself cant listen to the dotard..

Posted by: Lozion | May 8, 2018 2:46:40 PM | 4

I watched the first minute or so of Trump's speech. Links every evil in the world to Iran.
Big mistake for US. More than just a nail in the coffin of the US empire.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 8, 2018 2:49:04 PM | 5

The nuclear deal, for the United States, was an agreement by the previous president on a "plan of action" regarding restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities. This deal was not a treaty with advice and consent by the Senate according to the Constitution. As long as some presidents ignore the Constitution and make agreements on their own with other countries, they shouldn't be surprised when other presidents nullify them. (Bush-43 did the same thing on Iraq withdrawal as Obama did with Iran nuclear.)

Participation of the U.S. in this plan of action is now canceled, and U.S. sanctions on Iran will be enhanced. There will be no United Nations sanctions, and probably the other parties to the agreement will adhere to the plan's strictures while increasing ties with Iran. The Trump withdrawal in fact clarifies the U.S. position which was dismissive of the plan anyhow, with the U.S. not adhering to its terms under the new president.

This change may not hurt Iran much, as other parties to the plan continue to adhere to it and compensate for the U.S. withdrawal by using foreign currencies in Iran trade, etc. The price of oil is increasing and there is increased demand for it. Iran's ties with Russia, China and India are stronger than ever, and the latter two are in great need of petroleum. The change also reduces U.S. influence in Europe and elsewhere, which is not a bad thing because it reduces U.S. world hegemony.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 8, 2018 2:50:38 PM | 6

FFS. Stop with the Americans and Native Americans schtick. It is getting really fucking old. What about colonialism by other European states? What about England and the aboriginals of Australia. Every fucking western nation is just as sick and twisted in their drive for consolidating power and land as any other.

The only crime of natives the world over was that they were in the way of anti-spiritual Western Technology, crushed in that gauntlet of refined metallurgy.

I'm sorry b, but can you just refrain from your unabashed American fixation whenever we are dealing with the actual scourge of zionism and globalism?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 8, 2018 2:50:49 PM | 7

Europe is having none of the Trump clown show:

Europe Stands Firm Against Trump’s JCPOA Withdrawal – Vows to Uphold the Deal

Mogherini called the deal the property of the entire international community and not just a single nation

Trump - making America irrelevant.

Posted by: gorlog | May 8, 2018 2:51:40 PM | 8

Immediately after the Trump comedy, Netanyahu took the stage and babbled about nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles being developed in Iran for the use with nuclear warheads. Just poor coincidents: There was a general alarm on the Golan heights. When will the bombers take off?

Posted by: Gesine Hammerling | May 8, 2018 2:51:45 PM | 9

It needs clarifying - how can this be a 'withdrawal'? More like reneging on the agreement. Agreement incapable indeed.

It's getting time for the world to unify and sanction the US, until it reforms its behaviour. Why not?

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 2:52:40 PM | 10


Trump even made up that Iran supports al Qaeda, did you hear that?! Amazing, along with the fact that Iran wont be allowed to have ballistic missiles apparently. Its all pre-war Iraq 2003 again.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 2:56:01 PM | 11

I agree that Iranian strength has greatly increased and that US sanctions are counter productive.

I also agree that an attack on Iran would likely be suicidal for Israel and another chance to show US impotence. I don't see it happening.

My understanding is that Trump doesn't want to continue with the 90 day recertification process instituted by Congress. I think he is looking for something more permanent similar to Korea.

It reminds me of the US paying lip service to the Paris Accords but showing no real interest in effectively taking on climate change.

Posted by: financial matters | May 8, 2018 2:56:37 PM | 12

Thanks for the posting b.

Is the pot boiling yet? All the burners are on high so there is little excuse at this point.

What inane event will trigger escalation further you ask. Take your pick of many. My favorite is for all the multi-polar world supporters to stop buying US Treasuries......I think we are building to that if we don't go the "conventional" war route.

This decision with Iran will hasten the use of China as a financial "center" globally and the trickle we see now could become a flood.....my hope and projection

Posted by: psychohistorian | May 8, 2018 2:56:50 PM | 13

NemesisCalling
The Brits, the the Australians after Australia became a federation, never signed treaties to be broken.
b speaks of broken treaties rather than genocide which occurred in most nations Europeans of the day invaded.
In the ability to make and break treaties the US stands out, and has done so since its earliest days.
NZ - another Brit colony signed a treaty with the Maori's and largely held to it as far as I know.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 8, 2018 2:57:03 PM | 14

The level of the American Presidency has been declining for years. It is entirely in the gutter now, the Moron in Chief, has hardly any vocabulaary and what he has is uded to express blatant lies. What a disgrace...
I think it is an entirely defining moment for the EU's credibility now; if they abandon Iran the will loose a lot of goodwill and credibility around the world and jeopardize the whole European project, the trade war with the US has been in the making for a long time, the US wants to break the EU. Basically if the EU yields, it could very well disintegrate.
Lets take a trade war with them, if China and Russia does likewise, US economy is dead in the water. And so what, oh it will hurt, but the US will be bankrupt (it is already, they have not noticed).

Posted by: Den Lille Abe | May 8, 2018 2:59:06 PM | 15

Also, cant we stop this "Iran will attack if attacked by Israel, US" or even "RUssia and China will attack US, Israel if they attack Iran".

Look at how west hit Syria. And nothing happend, it will be the same with Iran if israel/US do anything militarly against them. Stop fooling yourself (you who have these irrational fantasies).

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 2:59:53 PM | 16

Well, it seems the fuck occupying the white house has just assured the 'mandate of heaven' has moved on. Iran must be placed under the Russian and Chinese nuclear umbrella. Period.

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | May 8, 2018 3:00:35 PM | 17

There is no army or proxie army that can wage a land war against Iran.

The war will be fought in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and then the Afghan side of Iran, this last place, an insurgency war--similar to the seven years in Syria.

US military will only wage aerial, stand-off platform wars.

How heavy they hit Iran is dubious. But the model will be at least Libya, more like Belgrade, but done mostly with missiles and guided bombs.

When? maybe dependent on North Korea outcome of the soon-to-be meeting.

Maybe the month before the mid-term elections if Trump fears loss of the House majority.

Clearly, if Iran starts anything against Israel, the US will hit them hard in return. With US base in Israel, that tiny regime now is USA by proxy.

The warmongers are riding high. But a large counter force is greed--capitalist exploitation of the Iranian market. Many trading partners want Iran to sanction-free.

First, the EU will react to this. Then Russia. Finally, China. How. and how effectively, to be determined.

Only Israel wants the war. The US just wants Hegemony and war suits it if necessary.

Bibi will be told in Moscow tomorrow how little room he has to wage his war. Just as a message was sent to Iran when the Russian defenses were not used to protect Iranian arms depots from the nine guided bombs that rocked Syria. Russia does not approve of Iran's tactical moves using Syria as its war base against Israel.

Lots of messages by various means and modes.

Iran is alone in the "war" it wants against Israel.

Israel has the US and the coalition of Arab-vassals.

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 8, 2018 3:00:52 PM | 18

always a good sign when a war criminal named "mad dog" is the voice of reason.

just saw trump's (probably written by kristol, frum or one of the israel firsters they share a brain with) speech and almost facepalmed myself into a coma. between the 2nd grade vocabulary scare words ("lunatic!", "chaos!", etc) and his strategy of "let's write what the saudis do but then change it to 'iran' for my speech" it was like my intelligence was being roasted by don rickles and dave chapelle.

i hope - against the evidence - that trump is just using the "play insane to get your way" technique nixon made popular with his false nuke alerts and such. he acted batshit stupid about korea and they have united in their hatred of the round eyed psychopaths who would see then all reduced to ash to wage a pathetic "war" on china. maybe he's just that great at failing.

the next big thing might be whether the s-300s (-400s?) russia keeps teasing actually end up in syria and/or lebanon. russia knows the road to moscow runs through tehran and hopefully any mild hint of a threat of an attack will be a bridge too far.

Posted by: the pair | May 8, 2018 3:01:19 PM | 19

@Nemesis Calling 8

I'm not sure why you expect b to invoke the history of some other nation(s) when discussing a decision by the United States government. Even if you insist that Zionism is at the heart of the problem, it is the AMERICAN commitment to Zionism that Trump manifests.

Posted by: Emily Dickinson | May 8, 2018 3:02:48 PM | 20

@ #8

the hell? where the hell do you think those "americans" who genocided their way across the continent came from? were they instantly another ethnicity/nationality when they hit the shore? you also might want to brush up on the history of the revolution. for all the talk of "freedom" and "taxes" what really set things off was the folks in england who wanted to stop settler expansion and honor at least some of the treaties that ended up as toilet paper for the mental defectives that became our "founding fathers" and "pioneers".

Posted by: the pair | May 8, 2018 3:06:22 PM | 21

@15 peter au

I believe you are splitting hairs. Western nations interaction with native cultures has always been about naked force. Your inability to understand that the west, itself, has never relinquished this position except when retreating from open violent rebellion, shows that you, too, have a fixation with the US as a boogeyman. This will not serve us well when the US is brought to heel and then we shall wonder why the fundamental problems of globalism and neoliberalism have not subsided.

The history of the US in their treatment of natives was a very UNIQUE situation on a frontier much different than N. Africa or SE Asian colonies.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 8, 2018 3:09:12 PM | 22

b

Cant you see that Its smart (in bad way) for the Europeans to remain in the deal? By doing so, Iran will “break the agreement” that they signed when Iran reacts to US withdrawal and belligerence.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 8, 2018 3:11:07 PM | 23

@20 Emily

Because what does one administrations differing policy with regard to the ME have to do witn manifest destiny and the genocide of native americans? It was a ridiculous analogy.

"See, look...the Americans are doing it again
"

I believe b is capable of much better commentary

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 8, 2018 3:11:48 PM | 24

Guys, i told you that Russia is getting owned by the sanctions and is waving the white flag. You did not believe that.


But now Benjamin Netanyahu is a guest of honour for Russia's V Day, Medvedev was confirmed for PM, and even the Saker himself admits that "things look pretty bleak to me."

http://thesaker.is/medvedev-re-nomination-this-does-not-look-good/

Trump's approach of threatening others with huge consequences worked. It worked with N Korea, it worked with the China trade war, and it worked with Russia. Now he will do the same with Iran.

Posted by: Passer by | May 8, 2018 3:15:24 PM | 25

Passer by


Trump's approach of threatening others with huge consequences worked. It worked with N Korea, it worked with the China trade war, and it worked with Russia. Now he will do the same with Iran.

^^This is very true, maybe the ONLY reason in fact that define his foreign policy actions.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 3:18:59 PM | 26

I do not think that Trump is, ideologically-speaking, a neocon. I would not credit Trump with possessing any consistently held principles or views informing either his domestic or foreign policy decisions. He is an avaricious showman and so is unstable and yet at the same time easily manipulable. But it doesn't really matter what Trump "believes" at the end of the day as he is for better or/and worse not the one really in charge of policy and hasn't been, quite clearly, for at least a year. (He sometimes forgets this when tweeting but is always quite easily reminded afterwards.) Don't get me wrong, I am not defending Trump. I do not at all believe of Trump what some believed of Obama, that he really *wants* so much to do the right thing but just can't, because X or Y. That is all bullshit of course. My point is just that Trump has no grand vision of US foreign or domestic policy but rather a knack for identifying and exploiting the excluded rhetorical middle whereever it appears (as he did in the Republican primaries) while launching witty and insightful broadsides against his many enemies. He will be allowed to enrich the already rich and his family and friends (as all US presidents do), and will be given one or two symbolic foreign policy achievements to sell to his base before the 2020 elections, but any chance there was of him intentionally or accidentally stalling or redirecting the longstanding big picture plan of Israel, SA, and the US for the Middle East has been self-evidently contained for quite some time now. Not that he very deeply cares.

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 3:21:31 PM | 27

Trump's approach of threatening others with huge consequences worked. It worked with N Korea, it worked with the China trade war, and it worked with Russia. Now he will do the same with Iran.

Well we now have seen the stupidest thing posted for the day...

Any other the_donald posters want to try to top it?

Posted by: gorlog | May 8, 2018 3:21:54 PM | 28

Why does everyone assume that “war with Iran” means war IN Iran and the Persian Gulf?

It is more likely to be an excuse for remaining in Syria and fighting Iranian forces there. At least at first. And possibly (probably!) expanding the fight to Lebanon.

Why does everyone assume that Israel will be forever cowered by Hez missiles?

Israel has complained about Iranian upgrades of Hez missiles. Israel is not likely to allow themselves to be checkmated. At some point (very soon, in all probability) Israel will bite the bullet and attack Hez in Lebanon.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 8, 2018 3:21:56 PM | 29

Iran is joining the EAEU, uses barter deals with Russia already, and will have an opportunity to fast track SCO membership.
If handled correctly, Iran can prosper from turning toward Eurasian development.

Russia has already involved in the nuclear energy sector, the gas and oil exporting for Iran.
Iran may not be able to access Western technology under new sanctions, but almost everything is available from China and Russia any way.

Meanwhile, they really need to clean up the corruption. No government can survive when the populace knows corruption is rampant.
Notice Brazil, Argentina, South Africa for example. It has crippled the BRICS badly as a force for sovereignty and multi-polarity.

Posted by: Red Ryder | May 8, 2018 3:25:25 PM | 30

Jackrabbit

Israel has complained about Iranian upgrades of Hez missiles. Israel is not likely to allow themselves to be checkmated. At some point (very soon, in all probability) Israel will bite the bullet and attack Hez in Lebanon.

Why do you use israeli propaganda to justify attacks on Lebanon? HEzbollah missiles, if there are any, are for protection.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 3:27:49 PM | 31

I think it's perfectly appropriate for B. to remind readers that the US Unitary Executive, traditionally known as the President of the United States, is notorious for bad faith and treachery in treaty-making. The Executive always has its own agenda to advance, whether domestic genocide or geopolitical imperialism.

This reminder in no way asserts or implies that the US is the only government that practices genocide, or heinously reneges on treaties and other ostensible obligations and duties.

It's useful to remember that, while the current Great White Father always looks as if he's making it up as he goes along, he usually acts according to the dictates (in every sense of the word) of US history and tradition.

Posted by: Ort | May 8, 2018 3:29:37 PM | 32

Israel and the US have poked and prodded Russia sufficiently to be clear that Russia will not defend Iran. I do not know how serious they are about attacking Iran, but they only reason they have not to is that it is morally wrong. For them that counts as incentive. Iran has only feeble defensive/counterattack capabilities.

Posted by: paul | May 8, 2018 3:32:19 PM | 33

@ Anon 16
Look at how west hit Syria. And nothing happened, it will be the same with Iran. . .
1. It seems clear that the hit on Syria was a US/Russia arranged show. That's why "nothing happened."
2. Iran always strikes back, and would have no reason not to especially since it's so easy to do, with all the lucrative western targets in the Gulf area especially. This is why the US has not and will not attack Iran, because it is not weak country like other US targets.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 8, 2018 3:33:33 PM | 34

Q: How many trailer-park republicans will be enjoying the latest hairy-chested bombast from Tiny Hands?

A: All of them.

Posted by: fastfreddy | May 8, 2018 3:33:51 PM | 35

OF course the jews are already plotting false flags in Golan,

Israeli military on' high alert', bomb shelters ready on Golan Heights over Iran activity in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/426190-israel-military-alert-syria/

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 3:34:11 PM | 36

Don Bacon

Again, that wont happen.
I dont know which world you guys live in, US could take Iran out in a 1 day. Stop fooling youself.
Do you know what happend with Goingtotehran?

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 3:40:19 PM | 37

By the way, anybody who thinks that HRC if elected would not have pursued effectively the same course of action toward Iran has not been paying attention. It was not only plain as day that HRC while campaigning had to situate herself on the side of Obama's deal against Trump's bombastic denunciations of it for obvious political reasons. But the apparent "partisan" divide over the Iran deal was always only that. HRC was going to "distrust and verify" and always counted on Bibi coming through for her like he did for Trump. Neither SA nor Israel liked the Iran deal, and so the Iran deal was never going to last under HRC either, for SA and Israel are her base. I say this all lest the dangerous and self-defeating idiocy of Trump's withdrawal from the deal be misconstrued as a partisan issue or failing. In truth, the Iran deal was never meant to last in the first place. If you think it was, then I would propose you are still underestimating the sway that SA and Israel and their US arms sellers exercise over US foreign policy.

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 3:42:08 PM | 38

Of course this makes Bibi's invitation to Victory Day even uglier and it was one already an incredibly ugly gesture. Putin we hardly knew ya.

Posted by: paul | May 8, 2018 3:42:23 PM | 39

"The Iranian economy was in serious trouble. It needed to negotiate a way out. That situation will not come back"

This is the key question. Why do you think that situation will not come back? The Iranian economy is already under immense pressure and sanctions have yet to come into effect.

Posted by: Ninel | May 8, 2018 3:49:27 PM | 40

There won't be any large war against Iran as this will lead to $ 200 oil price and possible break up of NATO.

Europeans are against the breaking of the JCPOA not because they like Iran, or not even the 25 billion $ in trade, but precisely because the possibility of such war. It will destroy the EU economically and put it at the mercy of Russia.

It will put the world economy into depression too.

Posted by: Passer by | May 8, 2018 3:49:33 PM | 41

Anybody know of a couple good English-German language Israeli and Iranian twitter feeds to follow if/when at least a little bit of shit hits the fan in Golan?

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 3:57:42 PM | 42

President Rouhani says Iran will stay in JCPOA
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/05/08/561071/iran-us-rouhani-trump-jcpoa

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 3:59:41 PM | 43

Re Nethanyahu on Victory Day Parade,

Was he invited or did he invite himself? Would it have
been possible for VVP to invite some other Head of State like
Rouhani for example?

Or even Nasrallah?

Posted by: CarlD | May 8, 2018 4:00:36 PM | 44

Iran reaction from IRNA twitter here
Javad Zarif
‏Verified account @JZarif
9m9 minutes ago
In response to US persistent violations & unlawful withdrawal from the nuclear deal, as instructed by President Rouhani, I'll spearhead a diplomatic effort to examine whether remaining JCPOA participants can ensure its full benefits for Iran. Outcome will determine our response. //(my bold)

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 8, 2018 4:01:29 PM | 45

CarlD

I very much believe the whole world is invited to this event. Especially west, but they boycotte it.
netanyhu hasnt gotten a special invitation sigh!

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 4:02:40 PM | 46

@39(Paul)

I agree with you- the optics around Bibi being a "guest of honour"(sic) for Victory Day are horrible.

And John Helmer seems to know a bit more than others (he could be wrong). And he is not enthusiastic about what he claima to be hearing.

I still think the Champions League final or the 1st week of the World Cup are the trip wires.

@MOA- Good work as usual, Bernard.
Thank you.

Posted by: Skeletor | May 8, 2018 4:02:41 PM | 47

b.. thanks for your post... your questions at the end "Will Trump make an even bigger mistake despite the opinion of his military advisors? Will he wage war on Iran?" i think the answer is yes to both, but i suspect the war will mostly continue on in syria.. israel is now just a usa outpost...

@8 nemesis calling... weird post from you.. i think the focus on the usa here is relevant.. your remind me of pat lang in the crazy level of patriotism with any logic and sense having flown out the window.. read @32 orts comments to you.. i agree with him..

@18 red ryder.. thanks.. good post and commentary..

@28 gorlog... lol.. i agree!!! hopefully others won't bother with the troll..

Posted by: james | May 8, 2018 4:02:51 PM | 48

OMG!! I'm the happiest kid in all of the Asia right now. Celebrate people celebrate!!! The great victory for the resistance. An official decleration of the end of Anglo-Wahabi-Zionist empire by it's very leader. Only the formalities remain.

Soldiers...March forward.

Posted by: Fantome | May 8, 2018 4:05:18 PM | 49

It was only a matter of time that the deal would be nixed. For starters, the Iranian deal was never ratified by Congress, so it was rather easy for Trump to walk away from it. Depending on how desperate Israel and Saudi Arabia is, we could see attacks on Iran soon.


Clueless Joe @1:

I highly doubt China will bleed for Iran. Political, financial and clandestine support is all China and Russia will offer.

Posted by: Ian | May 8, 2018 4:09:20 PM | 50

"While Israel wants to keep Iran as a boogeyman to divert attention from its genocidal campaign against Palestinians, it does not want a large war. Hizbullah in Lebanon has enough missiles to make modern life in Israel untenable. A war on Iran could easily end up with Tel Aviv in flames."

Netanyahu also wants a distraction from the criminal investigations he is facing. The Israelis have also arranged for US troops to be based in Israel, who are prepared to defend Israel (according to their US commander), so Netanyahu has nothing to lose in getting the US to attack Iran. He could even arrange a false flag against the US troops in Israel, to be blamed on the 'super secret super deadly weapons' Iran has smuggled into Syria (according to Netanyahu).

Posted by: Yonatan | May 8, 2018 4:09:51 PM | 51

Trump should go on a week-long bender and try to broker a trilateral deal between North Korea, Iran, and Israel:

North Korea gets to supply Iran with a couple of its nukes.
Israel gets to deport the Palestinians to North Korea.
U.S. removes its troops from South Korea.

Israel gets all of Palestine.
North and South Korea get rid of all U.S. troops.
Iran gets nuclear detente with Israel.
Trump secures peace in Korea, solves the Israel-Palestinian conflict, stabilizes the power struggle between Iran and Israel, and brings the troops home!
Palestinians get fucked.

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 4:10:01 PM | 52

Sputnik reporting massive explosions near Damascus. That didn't take long:

https://sputniknews.com/news/201805081064266076-massive-explosions-military-base-syria/

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 4:13:06 PM | 53

WJ @53:

Well, Israel did say they would try to assassinate Assad.

Posted by: Ian | May 8, 2018 4:15:00 PM | 54

I tend to agree with Fantome at 49, it's a time for celebration as the adults in the world community shake off some US shackles and enjoy the opportunity to bring some common sense to foreign relations unencumbered by US foolishness. It's a major event in this regard.

Posted by: Don Bacon | May 8, 2018 4:16:10 PM | 55

Israel has just launched two missiles against south Damascus which have been neutralized by SAA anti-air defense.

It is clear that the withdrawn from the nuclear deal was the green-light to this new attack, as was the last recent visit by Pompeo for the other.
There is a clear coordinated patern here.

Posted by: From the resistance | May 8, 2018 4:16:49 PM | 56

Just listened to Trump's speech pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. Sounded like something written by Bolton with help from Netanyahoo. Looks like Trump is going to lead us into WWIII very rapidly now. What a complete failure as a human being he is! Our work as lovers of peace is really cut out for us now. The world is plunging deeper into crisis with increasing speed. One cannot help wishing those responsible for this nightmare would just disappear, but that is not going to happen. We are left with trying to help the almost possible to happen, giving peace a chance in a world careening into war...........

Kim would be crazy to make a deal with Trump now, and so would China. If the major powers decide to appease the Empire, it will be a classic mistake, leading to WWIII nuclear. Only if Russia and China stand up to the US with conventional forces, will there be a chance that nuclear Armageddon can be avoided. Iran should be considered the red line to be defended at all costs in this resistance to Empire; anything less will be suicidal.

I would go farther and say that Syria should also be defended at all costs. With the rapidly escalating pressure from the Empire, there will be no way to buy time in hopes the resistance will strengthen, and the Empire will weaken. The Empire realizes that this is their last best chance to achieve total global domination, and is pushing it's potential victims to either respond or be driven into a weakened stance, and then conquered.


Posted by: mike k | May 8, 2018 4:18:07 PM | 57

Amazing, the jews are already attacking another country again, illegally.

Russia should be ashamed of itself not giving Syria s300, it is complicit is this madness.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 4:19:58 PM | 58

Posted by: CarlD | May 8, 2018 4:00:36 PM | 44

"Was he invited or did he invite himself?"

Netanyahu (cynically) arranged to go to Moscow on 9 May for a working visit, in the knowledge that he would be invited (as would any leader of a foregin country there at the time) to the parade out of courtesy. Netanyahu pulled off a similar stunt to get himself to the front line of the Charli Hebdo solidarity parade in Paris.

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201805061064184282-netanyahu-visit-russia-may/

Posted by: Yonatan | May 8, 2018 4:24:00 PM | 59

Ruhani and his smiling FM are toast!!! They still claiming Iran will abide by the deal simply becasue the Europeans say so. They'll be hit with another stick soon by the EU. The EU is merely an extension of the US. They don't move without approval from Washington. Like Victoria Nuland will say, "f*ck the EU".

Ruhani poured concrete into Arak nuclear plant on some flimsy promises from Obama. The "reformist" camp in Iran are politically DED now.

Posted by: Zico | May 8, 2018 4:24:56 PM | 60

This is the final warning for Kim. So it means war at all fronts. This year I guess.

Posted by: Pnyx | May 8, 2018 4:25:07 PM | 61

N.Korea is tremendously stupid if they sign a deal with Trump after this day...as is any other nation. What a mess.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 4:28:28 PM | 62

Thanks b, good article. An excerpt:

" They pointed out that there was no guarantee from Trump that any additional European effort would change his view."

First and foremost, IMO, this decision is not Trump's, his corporate masters tell him what he is to do.

The empire's decisions are made by the so-called " deep state", which is nothing more than an alliance formed by global industries bent on global hegemony.

Capturing "market share" is what they do, and they do it by any means necessary.

DT is just the latest version of the empire's puppets.

Posted by: ben | May 8, 2018 4:32:41 PM | 63

@61 & 62

Even if Kim makes a deal with Trump, nothing can happen to North Korea without China's consent. Remember that North Korea have a defense treaty with China.

Posted by: Ian | May 8, 2018 4:34:59 PM | 64

Ian

Sigh, NO here we go again,
check my post at #16

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 4:37:43 PM | 65

With the new attack on Syria by Israel, I would believe
Netanyahu's presence at Victory Parade would be too much
of an encouragement for other similar actions.

It would be like a reward from Putin to Netanyahu and this would
be too much of a symbol of complicity.

Posted by: CarlD | May 8, 2018 4:39:00 PM | 66

The Israeli air force attacked Syrian army positions south of Damascus:

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/08reuters-mideast-crisis-syria-strikes.html

Posted by: Gesine Hammerling | May 8, 2018 4:39:06 PM | 67

More Israeli air strikes on Syria tonight, according to reports. When are folks going to stop defending Putin and start calling him out?

Posted by: paul | May 8, 2018 4:42:05 PM | 68

NemesisCalling 22

You seem blind to the importance of honouring agreements It is why the US can never be trusted. The point here is that the US throughout its history has rarely honoured agreements.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | May 8, 2018 4:42:18 PM | 69

@65:

I already read your post and I disagree with it.

Posted by: Ian | May 8, 2018 4:42:58 PM | 70

Need a reason why peace with Iran is not on the empire agenda?

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/i-know-which-country-the-u-s-will-invade-next/

Posted by: ben | May 8, 2018 4:43:12 PM | 71

@ James 48

You are talking about two instances in US history that could not be more different. One is the end of the Iranian deal, which is the result of a different US administration and by the complete and utter infiltration Of gloablist and zionist interest. Furthermore, Iran has allies to back it up. The second instance was renegging on land treaties with a native population with its back against the wall, NO ALLIES, and no hope. It was pure and utter western exploitation. Unfettered and "wild," and so was given the name. The latter instance is what any western power would have and has done in the past given the right set of circumstances. It is one instance where the stars aligned for American industry and yet people think our nature and identity is forever stained by this occurrence. I say, "fuck that guilt and fuck that reminder."

Are the same architects or descendents of these in DJT's war cabinet right now? Is that how they are so similar?

But enough...it was a digression to begin with, especially since further in his post b alludes to his disgust with the EU in this issue.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | May 8, 2018 4:46:11 PM | 72

Ian

Its not my opions, its the facts, you see again, Syria attacked, nothing happens, Iran might be attack and nothing will happens, same for NK that dont have any agreement with China.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 4:47:11 PM | 73

@72 nemesiscalling.. thanks.. i agree it is a long time ago and probably not necessary for b to say that.. i think the point he was trying to make is the usa doesn't honour the agreements that they enter into, but even that is not entirely true... in this case though it is... i think the usa gets picked on a bit more due the fact it does a lot of shit that a lot of people are unhappy about.. obviously the country i live in is doing the same shit too! i regret the fact that the west has adopted to the role of the usa as exceptional nation... i wish europe, or canada and etc. etc. would stand up and say 'no more' to the usa.. but alas, politicians nowadays have no character or backbone... cheers -

Posted by: james | May 8, 2018 4:53:45 PM | 74

gorlog #28
well said. And a big thank you to b for the post. We are in interesting times and I am fascinated with bibi going to Moscow.

Posted by: flamingo | May 8, 2018 4:59:20 PM | 75

@73:

Nothing happened?! A significant number of missiles were intercepted. That's what happened. Putin never said he would attack the US and friends; only that there will be consequences. Guess what? Putin revealed another hint of their capabilities (i.e. that nuke powered cruise missile).

Regarding North Korea, Xi already made a public statement that China will defend North Korea if the US attacked first (i.e. reaffirming their commitment to decades old defense treaty).

Posted by: Ian | May 8, 2018 5:01:36 PM | 76

Ian

YEs nothing happend, no response by Russia nor Syrias a proposed by alot of people.

No China has not said they will defend North korea.

Stop spreading lies.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 5:05:16 PM | 77

US embassy in Lebanon urges Lebanon to retain policy of staying out of foreign conflicts
https://www.rt.com/newsline/426171-lebanon-us-embassy-parties/

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 5:07:00 PM | 78

"US ... soft power is gone."

Not totally, the masochistic streak in EU is quite deep. They lived through delicious pain of multibillion fines imposed on their companies for whimsically identified sanction violations. Not imposing sanctions but tolerating such fine would be as bad as breaking the agreement with Iran. But doing something about it may require a positive action rather than vetoes than can be imposed by few holdouts.

I seriously doubt if there would be any holdouts against empowering the offices responsible for the external trade of EU, say, imposing levy on imports from USA to reimburse American fines related to agreement with Iran -- the American exporters may collect the lost revenue from US Treasury engorged with fines. Would POTUS be inclined to escalate, American companies would squeel like hogs led to slaughter. Probably there are also other ways to immunize companies from American threats. But would Macron, May and Merkle go for it? Or would they sing together (sorry for crappy translatio) "With a whip, with a stick, torment my corrupted body".

Posted by: Piotr Berman | May 8, 2018 5:12:28 PM | 79

It's just sad to see Iran's fate being determined by whether the EU keeps holds on to the deal or not. My predictino is that the EU will fold soon under US pressure. Russia/China will go back to using Iran as bargaining chip in dealing with the West.

Man, how I miss Ahmadinejad!!!!

Posted by: Zico | May 8, 2018 5:13:50 PM | 80

The US empire is a withering empire in decline. How easy do folks forget the centrifugal forces of history, and that as all empires, especially ones constructed based on artificiality, are doomed. This decision by Trump only hastens the disintegration of the US global footprint. Whether the US ruling class wants to admit it or not, we live in a transitional age that is in the shadows of the American empire.

Wealth and industry have steadily shifted to the east, and with it, power. The "West" is mired in debt and decline and is but a twilight of its former self. The danger here is that when you have a ruling class that's apoplectic & a "leader" so unstable, they just might bring the entire house crashing down as they know nothing else and certainly don't know how to deal with diminishing power- the vainglorious and power hungry never do.

Unfortunately, I'm reminded of Fermi's paradox. Perhaps humanity only reaches a certain point and no more. We shall find out.

Posted by: Conscious | May 8, 2018 5:16:40 PM | 81

@68 How about when you leave MoA for good..

Posted by: Lozion | May 8, 2018 5:17:04 PM | 82

Given the current composition of Trump's foreign/defense policy team, it seems likely that the goal is an actual attack upon Iran. The warmongers are riding high in the saddle. One can only hope that our European allies make it clear that they will not support such an action, and that the U.S. and Israel will be on their own.

Posted by: Rob | May 8, 2018 5:20:56 PM | 83

Lozion

Why should he leave? Me too are so fed up with this dreaming with alot of folks here, is Putin a God for you guys? Cant do no wrong?
Accept that he was part of the attacks in Syria that was carried out some weeks ago. Putin refuse to sell s300 to Iran/Syria.


Will Russia Let Israel Dictate Syrian Survival, the S300 Issue
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2018/04/24/will-russia-let-israel-dictate-syrian-survival-the-s300-issue/

Putin is nothing to wholly defend.

Posted by: Anon | May 8, 2018 5:21:41 PM | 84

China and Russia don't need to intervene militarily in Iran. All they need to do is to keep resupplying Iran, and the U.S., if it invades, will be caught in a hopeless quagmire.

Posted by: lysias | May 8, 2018 5:32:29 PM | 85

It is hard to make sense of what Trump is up to if we do not know all that is included in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action aka 'Iran deal' of July 14, 2015. THE public text deals with ending Iran's nuclear program, further inspections in return for the lifting of sanctions. It was bad deal for Iran overall, and no sooner was it ratified the US refused to lift sanctions indicating it wants ballistic missiles eliminated as well.. But apparently there were secret clauses negotiated between the US and Iran in time just before ratification, the content which no one knows. Since the Iran deal however, US and Iranian troops, present in all parts of the middle east have not had any military confrontation. http://www.voltairenet.org/article201027.html
In this article Messyan also claims that there is some credence to Israeli claims that it sees itself threatened by Iranian military bases in souther Syria.

Posted by: majobrs | May 8, 2018 5:36:10 PM | 86

For those here blaming Putin for not doing anything against Israeli attacks on Syria, what exactly do you expect him to do? This is a fight between Israel and Iran. Besides, most Israelis are Russian citizens so why should Russia help Syrria or Iran Iran against their own.

People also forget that a lot of Russian Oligarchs have their seconed home in Israel. These are the moneymen Putin wouldn't dare go against.

It's just business. get use to it.

Posted by: Zico | May 8, 2018 5:41:15 PM | 87

Aid from North Korea played a big role in the Chinese Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War. China remembers this.

Posted by: lysias | May 8, 2018 5:46:48 PM | 88

To all those who claim that the United States is either currently or soon will be bankrupt, please stop. The U.S. government is not like a family or a privately owned business. That is because it controls its own currency and can create as much currency as it wants at any time it wants. Hence, bankruptcy is a logical impossibility. And don't think that foreign nations and private individuals relish such a scenario either. Should it come to pass that the U.S. cranks up the printing presses, the value of the dollar will fall, as will the value of all dollar denominated holdings. We're talking about many hundreds of billions (probably trillions) of dollars of investment losses. Anyone who thinks that China wants to absorb a massive pounding on the U.S. government debt it holds is nuts.

Posted by: Rob | May 8, 2018 5:47:37 PM | 89

Putin is not some guardian angel. He is the leader of a foreign state with multiple and complexly interrelated interests, foreign and domestic. He is not going to act unless the sum of these interests compel him to do so; that is, he is not going to act except in such a case where the repercussions of his *not-acting* clearly outweigh the possible harms of his doing so. And by the way thank God for that.

Posted by: WJ | May 8, 2018 6:00:59 PM | 90

I don't understand why Russian S300 & S400's are not in Syria shooting down Israeli gets bombing Syria.

Posted by: timbers | May 8, 2018 6:02:17 PM | 91

Putin has just stated that the time is right to decouple the Russian economy from the US dollar. He also said that Russia will continue to diversify its foreign exchange reserves in order to restore Russian econiomic sovereignty. Does this mean that the EU will now be able to pay for the gas it buys from Russia in Euros rather than USD?

The US has gone to war to prevent this in other states eg Iraq, Libya.

https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.en/rusvesna.su/economy/1525798146

Posted by: Yonatan | May 8, 2018 6:03:44 PM | 92

Rob 89

The "presses" along with credits on computer terminals have been running at break neck speed for at least 20 years as $1.5 billion each day is spent by the DOD on war machines alone.

While logic indicates that it should, this exorbitant spending apparently hasn't had any effect on inflation.

The US can spend like mad on bombs, but not on anything for the good of the common people.

And if any other country attempts to do anything for the benefit of their common people, well they get "corrected".

Posted by: fast freddy | May 8, 2018 6:04:42 PM | 93

@31

Jackrabbit is what I suspected all along; a NEOCON sleeper! From day one I wrote again and again that Trump is a ZIONIST, FIRST and driving the PNAC agenda - next stop war with Iran and regime change and that's why he was trolling me on every thread.
__________________

I'm surprised (actually, not so much with still lingering Trump deluded diehards) that no one brought up the fact that Israel is on a hyped high alert right now which leads me to suspect one thing and one thing only -- a false flag attack could eventually be launched to pin blame on Iran and just what Ziocon Trump and his master Netanyahoo need to move the Europeans in the planned direction. Trump and Netanyahoo are that dirty.

Posted by: Circe | May 8, 2018 6:08:36 PM | 94

93

Not meant as sarcasm:

Do you believe that the Ziocon Power Brokers and the ZioMedia's efforts to dethrone him are a ruse?

My feeling is - that they do not trust him sufficiently. That he hesitates... Where Obama always followed orders with expedience.

Posted by: fast freddy | May 8, 2018 6:22:36 PM | 95

Not too big of a deal for Iran so long as China, Russia and some EU states ignore the sanctions. Seems like more of a ploy to get US voters on a war footing. I suspect the immediate objective is war in Syria by exaggerating the presence of Iranian forces there. With ISIS in Syria not a credible threat to get support for more many Americans will easily be led to believe Iran is a credible threat to Israel and the region.

June is a favorite month to initiate wars for Israel. Bilderbergers meeting June 7-10. World Cup in Russia starts June 14 . I imagine fireworks around or even before then.

Now if Israel gets attacked by Syria or Iran in Syria, or maybe a false flag if they dont, they could blame Iran and launch attacks on Iran with US support. Could happen. Every President has to deliver his shadow masters a new war or two. Trump has yet to deliver.

Posted by: Pft | May 8, 2018 6:23:14 PM | 96

@fast freddy (92) You bring up a good point. The U.S. government never seems to run short of funds for "defense" purposes. They simply create as much money as is needed. Taxes never enter the discussion. And yet, despite the expansion of the money supply, inflation is nowhere in sight. That is because the demand for goods and services has not approached the capacity to produce them. The big lie is that funding of government projects can only come from taxes. Wrong! Money for non-military purposes can be created in just the same way, yet we never hear the end of how tax revenues are insufficient. Poor little children and their families are simply going to have to do without the niceties that the wealthy enjoy. This dynamic is well explained by Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).

Posted by: Rob | May 8, 2018 6:29:17 PM | 97

WJ | May 8, 2018 6:00:59 PM | 90

Thank you, it's the sort of reality that needs to be said. We, none of us, know what is going on within the very high level domain of politics; we don't have access. However, we can gather a great deal of general information and determine some broad ideas of outcomes. Never mind trying to be more manly than those in charge and declaring how you would take this action, shoot that plane, bomb this city. Step back and look at this broad playing field and consider what can be done while keep the body count to a minimum. Indeed, the USA is a zombie country (dead but doesn't know it yet). Yes, Israel is a little hole in the ground (you know, barrel full of fish sort of thing).
Yet, the US being a soulless zombie makes it exceedingly dangerous. So, Putin/Xi take military action, what is the outcome; be honest. The US and Israel panic, millions die.
It truly is a miserable decision to let so many suffer right now but honestly what is the alternative.
I firmly believe that in an informal way Putin/Xi are working in the background to hold what they can together, let the US stumble on in it's death spiral and limit the damage as much as possible. If that means appearing to bend the knee so be it; the alternative is annihilation.

Posted by: Bakerpete | May 8, 2018 6:30:44 PM | 98

I wish Putin would have Netanyahu publicly arrested for war crimes immediately before the Victory Parade.

Posted by: Perimtr | May 8, 2018 6:40:15 PM | 99

Anon & Circe

You guys are too funny.

@Anon: You are a moron. You question well-known facts. Everyone but you recognizes that Hezbollah has missiles. And China did issue a statement that they would back North Korea against a US attack, adding that they would NOT back NK if it was NK that was the aggressor.

@Circe: I called you out because your over-the-top anti-Trump statements showed you to be part of the “Never Trump” movement. Others saw that too. Grow up.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 8, 2018 6:52:31 PM | 100

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