Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 11, 2018

Syria - Erdogan (Again) Switches Sides - Delivers New Supplies For Terrorist Attacks

Turkey, in line with U.S. services, decided to block the current Syrian advance in south-east Idleb. Yesterday an ad-hoc alliance of jihadi "rebels" launched a counteroffensive to stop the Syrian army from cutting off a big chunk of "rebel" held territory in east-Idleb.

The Syrian army attack

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The area of the "rebel" counterattack (green)

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The Turkish and U.S. supplied "rebels" (see below) made a few local advances capturing some 12 villages of the 150 villages the Syrian army had recently liberated. They were soon beaten back. Some 50 Ahrar al-Sham fighters were killed or wounded after they ran into a trap. Some 10 Syrian soldiers have been captured by the enemy. Syrian and Russian air support is very active in the area and the Syrian army is again moving forward.

There is no mention or picture (yet) of al-Qaeda in Syria, currently labeled HTS, taking part in the "rebel" counterattack. Four days ago HTS published photos of its leader Joulini meeting with his military commanders to assess the situation. It looked bad for them. The squabble with other "rebels" increased. Two days ago Jouliani issued a statement that HTS would stop fighting other factions in Idleb to enable all to confront the advancing Syrian government forces. It seems that this was a condition for the renewed Turkish/U.S. support.

The counteroffensive could only proceed because Turkey (again) delivered hundreds of tons of weapons to the jihadis. New supplies of TOW anti-tank missiles, distributed exclusively by the CIA, have also been seen. (Turkey is also again supplying jihadists in Libya. The Greek navy just caught a ship going from Turkey to Libya with 29 containers full of bomb precursors, detonators and other bomb making parts.)

Here are some relevant tweets from the last few hours:

Terrormonitor.org‏ @Terror_Monitor 9:54 AM - 11 Jan 2018
#SYRIA #AlQaeda Affiliate #Uyghur #Jihadi Group Turkestan Islamic Party (#TIP) Releases Pictures Showing Its Fighters Against #SAA In Southern #Idlib. #TerrorMonitor
(pictures attached)

The Uygur terrorists were brought from west-China to Syria on official Turkish passports issued by the Turkish embassy in Thailand. On September 18 2015 al-Qaeda (Nursra, HTS) and the Uyghur jihadist group Turkistan Islamic Party stormed the long besieged Abu al-Duhur airbase and executed 56 Syrian soldier. It is this airbase the current Syrian attack in east-Idleb is aiming at. This time it will be the Uygurs who will lose their lives.

More on the today's events:

Ali Özkök‏ @Ozkok_ - 10:06 AM - 11 Jan 2018
#Turkey supplied Feylaq el-Sham militia with at least six armoured vehicles. This is a major indicator that Turkey also supports the massive counter offensive of rebels and islamists in #Idlib and #Hama against Syrian army and allies! I guess we will see soon some ATGM strikes.

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Carl Zha @CarlZha - 1:36 PM - 11 Jan 2018
Syria: Jihadists launching the counter-offensive against the Syrian government forces in Southern Idlib with APCs, heavy artillery and rockets this morning. APC were provided by Turkey earlier
(video attached)

The Syrian army captured one of the the new armored personal carriers. The various pictures and videos show a variant of the Armored Panthera F9 produced by the company Minerva SPV which resides in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Ali Özkök‏'s remark, "I guess we will see soon some ATGM strikes," was prophetic:

Carl Zha‏ @CarlZha - 1:58 PM - 11 Jan 2018
#Idlib: Syrian Rebel group Jaish Nasr TOW attack on Syrian Army Tank in Maraq Hill this morning. Wonder who provided them with TOW missiles?🤔CIA is suppose to account for all TOW missiles supplied by Saudi 🧐
(video attached)
Carl Zha‏ @CarlZha - 2:38 PM - 11 Jan 2018
#Syria Al Zenki Movement (Jihadist who beheaded a Palestinian child in Aleppo) firing ATGM hitting T72 tank today. Turkish support have been crucial for this rebel counter-offensive against #SAA
(video attached)

There was some early announcement of new Turkish and U.S. supplies by the Gulf propagandist Charles "Jihad" Lister:

Charles Lister @Charles_Lister - 5:58 AM - 11 Jan 2018
Sources - #Turkey has provided new supplies of: - Turkish armored vehicles - SALW ammo - RPGs - Mortars - Grad rockets & launchers - Tank shells & more… … To all major non-#HTS factions, for the express purpose of today’s new offensive vs. #Assad/#Iran/#Russia.

Two days ago Turkey protested to the Russian and Iranian ambassadors against the Syrian army moves in Idleb. According to the deescalation agreement it is Russia and Iran that are responsible for the south-eastern third of the Idleb deescalation zone while Turkey is supposed to control the north-western part. That Turkish part was recently used to attack the Russian bases in Syria though the Russians believe that the attack itself was launched not under Turkish but under U.S. command:

Russia said it held Turkey accountable for the drone attack, calling it a breach of their cease-fire agreement in northern Syria, while Turkey accused Russia and Iran of jeopardizing the entire peace process by launching an offensive to take control of an opposition-held air base in the area.

The Russian Defense Ministry named the opposition-controlled village of Muwazarra in southern Idlib province as the location from which a swarm of at least a dozen drones armed with crude explosives was launched Saturday, attacking the Hmeimim air base and the nearby naval base of Tartus in northwestern Syria. Under the cease-fire deal, Turkey is supposed to restrain opposition forces in Idlib province.
...
The [Muwazarra] village remains loyal to the moderate opposition, but military positions surrounding it belong to the Nusra offshoot Harakat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, said another man who lives in the village and did not want his name to be used. The closest HTS base, lying in a valley to the east of the village, was destroyed in a Russian airstrike earlier this week, he said — after the attacks on Hmeimim.
...
Many Syrians and also Russians have speculated that foreign intelligence agencies with reasons to provoke the Russians may have helped a local group conduct the attack. “There’s a lot of fishy stuff going on in Idlib — agents running around, and groups working with groups they shouldn’t work with,” [Aron Lund, who analyzes Syria for the Century Foundation,] said. “It’s very, very murky.”

The "rebels" in Idleb also set up a website with 150 pre-scripted tweets about killed children and barrel bombed hospitals which their fans can distribute at will. In the next few days we will hear news of the destruction of at least eight "last hospitals" in the Idleb governorate ...

One wonders what the wannabe-Sultan Erdogan is thinking. He had tried to provoke Russia before by shooting down a Russia jet. Turkey paid a huge price when Russia stopped all tourism and trade with it. A year later Erdogan had to go to Moscow to apologize and to beg for relief. Does he believe that Russia will react less sharply now when he allows attacks on their bases and again supplies their enemies?

What was he promised by the White House or the Pentagon for taking that risk and for again changing sides?

Posted by b on January 11, 2018 at 02:15 PM | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

I don't believe Putin covered up possible Turkish involvement in that particular case with the drone attack. He explained it plausible enough:
"I spoke with the President of Turkey from an office next door right before this meeting. We discussed this situation among other issues. I am sure that neither the Turkish military, nor the Turkish authorities, nor the Turkish state has anything to do with this incident. However, it is true that Turkey should control this part of the Idlib zone. It should be said, though, that we do not always manage to have complete control over what we should control there. Our Turkish partners are sometimes unable to do so either. The situation is complicated there. Under our agreements, they [the Turkish partners] should set up observation posts there, but they have not done this so far. And it is difficult to do it." (transcript)

Posted by: togre | Jan 13, 2018 4:27:39 AM | 103

Quite interesting to read Karlremarks' posts from 2011-2014 from today's perspective.
This one was his all best, imo
http://www.karlremarks.com/2013/10/reporting-from-annual-conference-for.html
And a good laugh for the weekend.

Posted by: Mina | Jan 13, 2018 5:34:46 AM | 104

@ 96

Agree. james is a very valuable member of the MOA community.

Posted by: Lochearn | Jan 13, 2018 6:26:33 AM | 106

Toivos says:

Oh dear, I was sucked in by a fraud

so first you laud the fellow for his solid logic, then you negate your own assessment based on an entirely trivial and unrelated matter...

i'd say that makes YOU the village idiot.

Posted by: john | Jan 13, 2018 7:26:17 AM | 107

For you relax a bit, since it´s weekend, we have slept al ot and, curiously, it´s partially sunny!

Another use of drones....in tourism at astoundish landscapes/locations...

While visiting Tibet, at certain monastery with a quite huge arcade courtyard in the centre ( I can not remember the name, since I visited quite a lot,well, almost all.... ), a Chinese tourist ( I guess really wealthy by the increasing in travel costs for transporting such a devise... ) brought in a huge drone which he started to fly with no less huge scandal, breaking up the previous atmosphere of recollection ....Once again, as I usually feel along my life, I thought about the inconveniences it come with excess of money....Since some of those buddhist monks seemed so interested in money matters, you being oblied to pay even to take some simple photos of inside the monasteries, I really wondered which ammount of money this particular tourist should have payed to be allowed to fly such artifact there for filming....Taking into account that at Jokhang Temple, at one little shop there is at the top terrace, one monk refussed to even sell to me and my friend one blessed amulet we tried to purchase at a lower price than another of bigger size, he wanted to sell us at the same price of the other....he got really annoyed....refusing even to sell us the amulet even when finally accepting paying the same price of the bigger one....what took me to doubt about the peacemaking effects of practising buddhism....on some, at least....Finally I purchased the same amulet of the same size to wear hold at my trousers´ belt at a market post owned by plain citizen near another monastery.....not blessed by anybody but at a quite lower price....Got satisfied enough...


Drone crash at Mt Everest. Tibet

Posted by: elsi | Jan 13, 2018 7:41:42 AM | 108

At
http://thesaker.is/meeting-with-heads-of-russian-print-media-and-news-agencies/
we have the following statement of Putin on the drones:

"As for these attacks, we have every reason to believe that they were carefully planned, and we know when and where the drones were delivered, and how many. These aerial vehicles were camouflaged as improvised devices. Let me emphasise, that this is only camouflage. In fact, they clearly include high-technology components. This is related to radio location systems and satellite targeting, as well as high-precision weapon separation systems. What this all means is that the explosives were dropped from the UAVs automatically, and the route was calculated so as to enable the drones to return to the launch site.

This proves that high-technology elements were used. I fully agree with experts from our General Staff that there was no way these elements were hand-built. This is the reality, we see this, and additional measures were taken to secure our locations. I hope that they are effective."

Posted by: Oliver K | Jan 13, 2018 8:42:49 AM | 109

Vaez @95...asks...

'...How is it possible to remotely capture the navigation and control system of a drone that flies without a live datalink and only uses a preprogrammed autopilot system?..'

I already addressed this issue in one of my previous posts...

The autopilot relies on GPS for its location signals...

The GPS signal is quite weak due to the height of the satellite constellation orbit...about 20,000 km...

This makes jamming of GPS radio signals quite simple...even using hobby equipment...some of which you can buy online...

The way to take control of such a craft is to spoof the autopilot with false location signals...this includes altitude data...

To get the aircraft to descend you would feed it a false signal that it is climbing...the autopilot would then command the elevator to deflect to pitch the aircraft nose-down...and then just bring her in for a landing...

There is military electronic warfare equipment designed to do just that...I had already mentioned the Russian Zhitel system in my very first post on this subject on the other thread...

This is how the Iranians probably commandeered and landed the much larger and highly sophisticated Lockheed RQ170 Sentinel UAV...

'...At least one US source admitted that Iran could have interrupted the data-link and brought it to a soft landing...'

Posted by: FB | Jan 13, 2018 9:19:21 AM | 110

@ John 106...

Good one...

It seems I have stepped on the toes of a local clique here...

Oh well...my bad...next time I will take into account delicate constitutions...and hopefully avoid snowflake melt...

Posted by: FB | Jan 13, 2018 9:24:27 AM | 111

from Business Insider

On Dec. 24, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, called together a delegation of Syrian opposition leaders to deliver a blunt message: Riyadh would be throttling back its military support for their efforts to overthrow Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

It was time, Jubeir counseled, to devote their energies instead to securing a political deal with Damascus at a peace conference in January in Sochi, Russia, according to two opposition sources and two other diplomatic officials who described the meeting to Foreign Policy. If they were well prepared for Sochi, Jubeir argued, they would be in a better position to get an agreement on a political transition. (Saudi officials in New York and Washington did not respond to requests for comment.) .

. . . Marine Gen. John Allen, the former US envoy for the anti-Islamic State coalition: "In many respects, the political trajectory has been decided by the Russians," Allen said last month. "And sadly, the United States has little capacity now to exert leadership in this process or to participate." . . here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 13, 2018 9:26:52 AM | 112

FB

¨Snowflake melt¨¨delicate constitutions¨ quite the parlance of a bully.

When civilised people step on other peoples toes, they apologise, rather than insult.

You must have noticed that you where not called names and your manhood was
not challenged. Whereas you boldy step where angels fear to thread.

If I am not mistaken, your RC experience is quite recent isn´t it? Do you actually work
at a drone/UAV factory?

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 13, 2018 10:14:45 AM | 113

FB

¨Snowflake melt¨¨delicate constitutions¨ quite the parlance of a bully.

When civilised people step on other peoples toes, they apologise, rather than insult.

You must have noticed that you where not called names and your manhood was
not challenged. Whereas you boldy step where angels fear to thread.

If I am not mistaken, your RC experience is quite recent isn´t it? Do you actually work
at a drone/UAV factory?

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 13, 2018 10:14:45 AM | 114

FB

¨Snowflake melt¨¨delicate constitutions¨ quite the parlance of a bully.

When civilised people step on other peoples toes, they apologise, rather than insult.

You must have noticed that you where not called names and your manhood was
not challenged. Whereas you boldy step where angels fear to thread.

If I am not mistaken, your RC experience is quite recent isn´t it? Do you actually work
at a drone/UAV factory?

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 13, 2018 10:14:47 AM | 115

to ¨b¨

could you please delete 113 and 114. Was unintended.

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 13, 2018 10:18:03 AM | 116

FB

OK, suppose way points have been set and destination coordinates have been entered
into the UAV program.

Will jamming the GPS automatically generate a response? And how does the intercept
know what response will be generated?

I can understand that transmitting a signal of too high an altitude will get the plane to
descend and crash. But it will not modify the trajectory, if I am not mistaken.

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 13, 2018 10:25:03 AM | 117

Oliver K @108...

Regarding Putin's comments which you cited...I followed the link myself and your citation is accurate...

Here is the relevant snippet...

'...This is related to radio location systems and satellite targeting, as well as high-precision weapon separation systems.

What this all means is that the explosives were dropped from the UAVs automatically, and the route was calculated so as to enable the drones to return to the launch site...'

Let me try to unpack this statement from VVP...

First the part about the UAVs returning to the launch site...

Return-to-home is a standard capability of even off-the-shelf autopilot systems for hobby RC [radio controlled] aircraft...like this one...

So the part about returning after mission is not beyond hobby technology...

That's one easy issue clarified...

Another easy one to clarify is the part about dropping the bomb payload...

This has absolutely nothing to do with hobby aircraft...so Putin is on solid ground there...

Clearly getting any UAV to drop 10 bomblets requires a fairly sophisticated engineering solution...

The most basic aeronautical issue is that of locating the bomblets in reference to the aircraft center of gravity...

Any aircraft...like a bird...can fly only if there is a perfect balance between the lift produced by its wing...and the location of the body's center of mass...

The tail [in both bird and plane] is the movable part which stabilizes this balance in any flight situation...

Locating the aircraft's center of gravity is a standard procedure that every pilot must calculate before every flight...taking into account the precise weight of passengers, luggage etc...and the precise location of said weight...and how it is distributed...

This is crucial...so an aircraft that needs to drop payload in flight is going to need a degree of design sophistication that hobby aircraft do not typically need...

[They do need of course to be perfectly balanced...like any aircraft...just they don't need to drop any weight while in flight...]

The other aspect that comes into play here is the mechanism for ejecting the bomblets...this too would require a mechanical solution that would not typically be within the skill set of even a knowledgeable hobbyist...you really need someone with mechanical engineering skills for something like this...

Then this comment from VVP...

'...These aerial vehicles were camouflaged as improvised devices. Let me emphasise, that this is only camouflage. In fact, they clearly include high-technology components...

Let's analyze this statement...

High technology components does not necessarily mean something that is not readily available...and VVP is not specifically saying that...

I mentioned earlier that every smartphone now available on the market makes use of a single-chip dual GPS/Glonass receiver...for improved accuracy and availability...here is a Qualcomm info on on this from 2011...

This is a high technology component...but it is cheap as dirt and available everywhere...

The same thing goes for the sensors that go into a UAV autopilot...

I have already quoted the comments published in Sputnik yesterday by Gen. Novikov...

'...the drones of this class could not have been produced in a hand-crafted manner....

Specialists, who underwent special training in countries producing and using systems with UAVs, were involved in the development of these drones...'

What is he saying there...?

He is saying that in order to build this kind of UAV you need special training...

I have said this from the start...

But here is the important part...neither VVP's nor Novikov's comments imply that the components needed for the autopilot system are controlled technology that is not available on the open market...

They only say that you need somebody who knows what they are doing in order to make this kind of aircraft...here's Novikov again...

'...One should not confuse the primitive assembly of the drones presented to you with the engineering and technical solutions used during their manufacture.

The production of such deadly machines requires superior professional knowledge, practical skills and experience in operating drones...'

This is very clear...nowhere is it said that there is restricted technology involved here...other than the explosives...

Novikov specifically focused on the chemical composition of the explosives and their possible sources...citing specifically Ukraine...

As for the autopilot system...I have linked here to hobby systems like this one...

But there are more sophisticated units available specifically for both military and civilian customers...like this one...

This particular autopilot from MicroPilot is basically the same thing as that hobby one...except that it is triple-redundant...ie it has in the same box three separate electronic circuit boards...each of which are identical separate autopilots...and are designed as backups in case the first or even second one fails in flight...

I can tell you with complete certainty what the components are in this kind of system...

They would consist specifically of an accelerometer to determine the aircraft's angular position...and an electromechanical gyroscope to determine the airplane's angular acceleration...

Here is a cheap off the shelf accelerometer that would be suitable...it costs exactly $8.14 at an online electronics retailer...

And here is a 3-axis gyroscope that is likewise cheap and easily available...it costs exactly $9.09...

The last part needed to make these two components into a functioning autopilot would be a programmable circuit board like the Arduino...

Here is where the real expertise comes into play...programming the software of an autopilot can be a huge undertaking...just ask the avionics manufacturers that make this kind of equipment for passenger jets...

It would be a big job and the level of performance would depend entirely on the level of expertise of the software programmer...who would also need to work with a very knowledgable aeronautical engineer...as well as a very qualified pilot...

So here is what we have here...the hardware is obviously quite freely available...but the expertise to make one these things work well is not so easy...

This is the clear message from both VVP and more important Gen. Novikov...

The bottom line is that some high level expertise is required in order to make something that will function with good performance...

However...it should be pointed out that even a non-expert, but knowledgable hobbyist...could in fact make something that would work...just not work very well...

Now as a final note to this post...I had mentioned the MicroPilot product...have a look at their client list here...

You will note that there are many civilian applications for sophisticated autonomous UAVs which includes things like mapping and surveying...or even just aerial photogrpahy...

Here is one such UAV manufacturer...SilentFalcon... that uses the MicroPilot system...

However...buying a sophisticated autopilot system like MicroPilot would be a self-defeating for a terrorist group [and their sponsors]...because such a sale could be easily traced and could not be covered up...

But like I said...the bottom line is this...a competent person...or better yet...a team of specialists...could easily build an autopilot system that is just as good as that MicroPilot product...

This is what we have here...and this is what the statements from both Putin and Novikov are emphasizing...the human expertise...

Bottom Line...The Russians are being quite honest and forthright here...

The problem is in the layman's misinterpretation of these statements...due to their lack of understanding the technical nuances involved...

Also I should state here that we cannot expect the Russians to divulge exact details of the avionics used on these particular UAVs...

There are two good reasons for this...

First...you don't want to give somebody a DIY manual on how to replicate something like this...

Second...this information must be kept confidential because it is the smoking gun as to who is behind this...

For diplomatic reasons...these kinds of details are not going to be presented publicly...

But they will be presented confidentially through diplomatic channels in the appropriate way...

I hope this helps the readers here to have a better understanding...which...I assume is what most are interested in here...

Posted by: FB | Jan 13, 2018 12:01:59 PM | 118

CarlD @113 and 114...says [twice]

'...You must have noticed that you where not called names...'

I don't want to get involved in a cat fight...but just to set the record straight...see comment 85...

Posted by: FB | Jan 13, 2018 12:07:45 PM | 119

I disagree in that the attack with drones over Russian bases of Hmeymin and Tartus in Syria would be at hand for any experimented hobbyist, since high technology at all at not at anyone´s hand was used in the attack:

Syria: a war of the highest technology available to very few

On Thursday, the Pentagon denied the participation of the US Army in the 13-drone attack against the Hmeymim air base and the Tartus naval base, both used during the Syrian War by Russia.

The denial does not allude to a circumstance that seems to us capital: on January 6 at night, at the same moment in which the attack took place, a reconnaissance aircraft of the US Air Force flew over the Mediterranean.

Technological innovations are one of the most neglected aspects of the Syrian War. War and technology have always gone hand in hand and that of Syria has proved to be a field for the experimentation of all kinds of novelties in the "art of war".

To the war the armies always go with the latest available technology and, by themselves, the technical innovations that we have seen in Syria show that there was never any "popular uprising", nor any kind of "civil war".

What was not so evident before, now it is resplendent, because the war has not ended and that is another mask that has come crashing down: now the United States can hardly hide the fact that the Syrian War is them.

Although the imperialists had already used drones in other wars, as in Afghanistan, it is in Syria where their use has a tactical character more evident in the battlefield. For example, the attack on Russian bases has shown the use of drone swarms, that is, a massive and simultaneous launch of units loaded with high-powered explosives.

They were no less than 13 drone drones that, in addition, moved to two different and remote places, such as Tartus and Hmeymim, something quite difficult to coordinate, especially if the distance pilots are not well trained for it.

If World War II, as Stalin said, was going to be a "war of engines", 70 years later that of Syria is electromagnetic and reaches the satellites that surround outer space. Without the space satellites, which are beyond the reach of the jihadists, the Syrian War would have been very different.

The military technique is also pure dialectic: every measure has its countermeasure. In the bases that Russia has in Syria, there is not only a powerful antiaircraft system, capable of destroying fighters or missiles, but a radio-electric umbrella that detects any signal 250 kilometers away, which has allowed them something much better than destroying some drones: seize them to analyze them.

The results of the analysis are not known, nor will they be known, but one thing is certain: what the Russians have found inside the drones is not the Quran.


Posted by: elsi | Jan 13, 2018 12:17:41 PM | 120

CarlDn @117 said...

'I can understand that transmitting a signal of too high an altitude will get the plane to descend and crash. But it will not modify the trajectory, if I am not mistaken.

That's a good question...

The short answer is that the EW [electronic warfare] specialist doing this job must finesse the control of the airplane...

We have heard that six of the UAVs were commandeered by Russian EW crews...but only three landed intact...the other three exploding...

So yes there is some delicate skill involved there...

Still...it is a good job that they have managed to do that...

But your position seems to be that you are arguing in favor of some kind of remote control by the terrorists [or someone else] of these UAVs in the terminal phase...

This is not correct as per the information we have...

'...The research conducted shows that the radio electronic equipment installed on the UAVs allowed their automated, pre-programmed flight and ammunition discharge...

...eliminating the jamming of their control systems," Major-General Alexander Novikov, the head of the Department for Construction and Development of the System for the Application of the UAV of the General Staff of the Russia Armed Forces, said..."

Again...we have to be very precise in reading this statement...

...'jamming of their control systems'...means interfering with the radio link of a remote-control system...

That is quite clear...

So there was no remote-control system...

Had there been such a remote-control system in the terminal phase...[some here have previously suggested a terrorist near the target base with a handheld RC controller...a notion I dismissed one day before we even heard from Gen, Novikov...]

...then that would have made things much easier...

It is in fact a problem that hobbyists run into on a regular basis during get-togethers...every model pilot is assigned a particular frequency slot...

...but sometimes slots close together can interfere with one another...ie say you have frequency 72.05...and the guy flying at the same time a few feet dozen feet away has 72.07...

The organizers try to avoid this kind of thing...

Point being that being remotely controlled makes it easy to take over the flight...you just go into the same frequency but with a stronger transmit signal and you have control of the airplane...

This is not what happened here...so don't entertain ideas about it...please see what Novikov said...

What happened here is much more difficult...

The only way in is through the satnav receiver[s] on board the airplane...ie the GPS/Glonass...and we can assume that it has receivers for both since these are now industry standard in everything from mobile phones to navigation radios on commercial jets...

The autopilot sensors which I talked about in my previous post cannot be accessed from outside...that is just physics...if you could somehow interfere with an electronic circuit that is not operating with radio waves then that would be a tremendous scientific breakthrough...

For one thing you could 'hack' the self-contained inertial guidance system on an ICBM and cause it to fly away in another direction...even back on the party that launched it...

So we have to draw a physical line between an electronic circuit and a radio device like GPS...

that is why NOvikov said that the 'automatic' and 'pre-programmed' flight control system could not be jammed...

However...any radio device can be interfered with...that includes radar...GPS...remote control using satellite link...etc...

Standalone electronic circuits cannot be interfered with...at least not easily...but they can be damaged from external sources...

Electronic circuits are susceptible to high energy radiation...ie gamma rays...and passenger jets and other aircraft have been known to experience so-called 'faults' in their avionics due to things like solar flares and geo-magnetic storm activity...[although I am not familiar with any case that has actually resulted in a system failure...]

That is why special care is taken to shield these kinds of circuits...

So the bottom line here is that the Russian EW guys got in via the GPS/Glonass receivers on board...yes this is tricky as you noted...but these guys have some tricks of their own...


Posted by: FB | Jan 13, 2018 12:39:23 PM | 121

FB - although you presented the opposite side i think the truth lies with a dash of both first world thugs and third world thugs. sure, the technical aspects of it are there on the market sure..... but the precision is not.

a scientist built a cruise missile with parts off the shelf,but the accuracy and the reliability was a joke around 10 years ago..... but if we want to be cruel, the soviets sent a drone to the moon and everything was radio controlled. regardless, also once captured they can easily be tested by firing sat codes at different powers to see if they are commercial or not...... hardened or not.

i am sure it was built/put together on the ground by locals, as seen with tape and aluminum, but the rest of it must of been supplied in a kit. sure a surveyor gps.... i don't wish to go on. but that is not cheap. if the coordinates say it was to the hanger or officers barracks which can be quite small, those are better than even surveyor gps tools....hundreds of km..first time without practice...... sure..... no one would waste such a surprise the first time. hence proxy attack.

more so. rdx is not some holy grail but the complete weapon launch system for its size just doesn't fit the bill for someone who is testing out some bombs, instead of just raising hell around the area for a while. those small bombs are meant for ...accuracy.. the ammunition fins and detonators were not crafted by some plastic ejection molding factory in syria that's for sure. the regulars on the ground would rather just strap mortar rounds no? i don't think those bombs have heat ir lens yet. but that's only next now, because someone wanted to push the envelope with such dirty moves.

if we see accidents happen we can be sure who thinks they are right. i wonder how some of these people sleep at night. no your not wrong, but if viewing from technical, their efficiency to kill with such payload suggest accuracy and not swarming, and that requires perfection.

Posted by: jason | Jan 13, 2018 2:12:09 PM | 122

The real village idiot is the one who engages with the thread hijacker who disperses the conversation’s focus in technical minutiae irrelevant to the subjects broached by our guest b..

Posted by: Lozion | Jan 13, 2018 2:39:29 PM | 123

the subject at hand in minute technical details does require debate.

how do you come to conclusions without any sort of knowledge. right? the growing circus previously known as news. news anchors who never majored in anything w experiences like Hillary as a person who does everything she does at mediocrity.

it's like thinking obama as a community organizer can give you "worthy" change. the healthcare bill turned my brother's profession as a medical practitioner into an insurance agent.

those details needs to be debated.

sure, if you want to ask how it ties up, it would be nice to show some mental capacity.

it would make the erdogan switching sides entirely relevant as the supply line has to be from turkey.

although b does have a point, the biggest thing out of this whole ordeal is how controlled russia has been. they are at a disadvantage, they need turkey to play nice..... at almost all cost unless they did damage to russians.

this technical information just shows how desperate the puppet masters are at russian softness. again proving, no matter how many times erdogan betrays others, saudi domestic distractions, etc. that russia is focused and that using softness defeats brute strength, blackmailing erdogan, etc.

people usually can guess or deduct other's strategy from details. not guess at others details by deducing their strategy.

Posted by: jason | Jan 14, 2018 1:37:17 AM | 124

NATO strengthens ties around the military base in the United Arab Emirates

NATO's interest in the Middle East grows at every moment. As if it were a first, the Military portal reveals that the imperialist alliance has built a clandestine base of the United States Air Force in Al-Dhafra, in the United Arab Emirates, where the 380 squadron has its headquarters.

But that base is not new at all. It is located 30 kilometers south of Abu Dhabi and just over 200 of the Iranian coasts. Wikipedia does not allude to NATO at all and limits itself to ensuring that it is a base shared by the United Arab Emirates, the United States and France.

However, in 1991 the base participated in the Second Gulf War, in 2003 in the invasion of Iraq and now serves as a liaison for interventions in Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa. From it depart the aircraft that punish the infrastructure of Syria.

Al-Dhafra can be relieved by Inçirlik if Turkey abandons NATO. It is one of the largest aircraft fuel parks in the world. In it sits a tanker KC-10 and a drone RQ-4 Global, among other American war devices.

Today a NATO delegation is on an official visit to the United Arab Emirates, although the media do not identify the members that are part of the delegation.

The Emirati public agency WAM reports that the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Policy and Strategic Affairs of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Falah Al Qahtani, has received them officially.

The official notes say that the NATO delegates and their hosts discussed ways to improve cooperation in the fields of regional security and stability, which is as much as saying nothing because NATO is each less a "regional" organization and more "global", which is forbidden by the founding Charter of the UN.

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 8:34:43 AM | 125

The first attacks using groups of drones on the battlefield

For eleven years, military experts have been debating how to coordinate drones for a group attack against one target. We know that Iran and of course China, are already masters of this technique [1]. It is probable that other States, including Israel, the United States and Russia and Canada, are also capable of applying it....

....During the attack, which was carried out using un-identified drones, four U.S. Navy drones for observation followed the reactions of the Russian defense....

...Studying the drones captured has allowed us to establish the following: that these engines, which have a flight capacity of around 100 kilometres, were travelling at around 50 km/hr and their coordination by satellite was by analogous signals not digital signals. They were transporting shells of artisanal construction meant to destroy the ships in the harbour and the planes stationed at the air base.

So what we have here is very simple equipment, which has already been used on the battlefield, both in Iraq and Syria. The novelty flows from its coordinated use by satellite.

The Russian army is now continuing its investigations. A notable objective is to determine which satellite was used in this operation and which State owns it.... the most likely hypothesis is that these drones were armed by the jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham.

Ahrar al-Sham was established by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood before the war against Syria. It includes in its ranks several of Osama Bin Laden’s companions. Its “Foreign Minister”, Labib al-Nahhas, is one of the British MI6 officers. At the end of 2016, Ahrar al-Sham signed an agreement with Russia recognizing the “de-escalation zones”; an agreement which it has clearly not respected.

....Furthermore, the Pentagon acknowledged that it had used for the first time its Global Hawks reconnaissance drones on the boundary line of Donbass, on 1 and 7 January which is in fact the day after the two attacks against the Russian military installations in Syria.

This technology failed on the Syrian battlefield against the Russian army, which is equipped with the most powerful anti-air weapons in the world (Pantsir-S1) and the means of radio electronic war, capable of bringing Nato commands to a grinding halt. Yet in a different environment, this technology could conquer....

....So the technology and necessary means to coordinate an attack by a group of drones has been transferred to a terrorist group. This means that even if the Anglo Saxons preserve coordination via satellite, they nonetheless announce a radical change in the Security and Defence.

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 8:57:15 AM | 126

Analysis of the drones that attacked Hmeimim

....- these drones cannot be manufactured locally. Accordingly, they must be imported.

- the use of these drones requires an appropriate training. It follows that either those providing the drones came to train the jihadists or the jihadists went abroad to be trained.

- the artisanal bombs that the drones were equipped with weighed about 400 grams. They have been conceived on the basis of quaternary nitrate and blocks of metal. This explosive is not produced locally. Several states produce it. One of these is Ukraine.

- the coordinates of the programme for controlling these drones are more precise than those that can be obtained from open sources. Therefore the jihadists had access to air or satellite intelligence.

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 9:01:07 AM | 127

The current SAA operation was never about capturing the Abu al-Duhur air base although that will most likely be the eventual outcome. Instead it's about killing as many jihadists as possible and the jihadists have fallen for it. The SAA advance to Abu al-Duhur created a salient and every arm chair general and his dog knows that the best way to deal with a salient is to concentrate your forces and pinch it off near the base by attacking the flank. If the flanks have been secured as it looks like the SAA has done then that approach fails. But until the jihadists understand that it was a trap they'll go on trying to break through because doing so will provide them with the miracle they need to keep up morale, recruitment, and funding they require from among the true believers. And they'll keep on dying.
While the jihadists are focused on the salient, the SAA seems to be advancing elsewhere into areas from where HTS,TIP, Ahrar al-Sham, etc. have withdrawn or drawn down their forces.
ISIS in the North Hama pocket seem to be staying out of this and I suspect the ISIS forces that some SAA units came into contact with further north are self-identifying (re-badged) HTS.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Jan 14, 2018 10:12:56 AM | 128

Elsi...

I do not need the dummy Thierry Meyssan to interpret for me what Major-General Alexander Novikov said from his own mouth...as quoted in Sputnik...

Meyssan is neither a pilot or engineer and he makes that quite obvious by spouting gibberish about 'satellites' used by the drones...

The only satellites used were same ones used by your phone...and my phone and everybody else's phone...ie the US GPS and the Russian Glonass...

I have already addressed this topic in detail...

Thierry Meyssan needs to stop blowing smoke out his rear end and talk to somebody who has actual technical knowledge...just to get some very basic facts of physics...

I really don't understand why you have your knickers in a knot over this issue...

I have said very clearly that everything that Novikov has said is very honest and forthright...

And I agree with all of it...

I also said this...

The problem is that layman people who do not understand these technicalities are misinterpreting Gen. Novikov's very clear comments...

This includes the dummy Meyssan...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 10:47:47 AM | 129

@ FB | Jan 14, 2018 10:47:47 AM | 129

First, I have no idea why you consider Meyssan a "dummy", although you seem to have a very low impression of almost every person on the surface of Earth....In fact, I have been quite negatively surprised by Meyssan´s almost unconditional support for the real dummy, The Donald, during and sfter the election, but he seems to be well informed in what he publishes on theo ther hand, and, in this case, his sources seem to come from the very Russians...For what i have uderstood he has contacts amongst the Syrian officials and he is living right there...

Second, how you know that the satellites used in the attack were the same my and your and everyone´s phone uses is beyond me.....independently of your knowledge in engineering..

Third, I wonder why in the Earth you dare to mention, and venture the style of, my underwear just because I do not happen to agree with you, you are a gross... I am waiting for an apologie, since I have been always civil, and even friendly, with you, otherwise we will stop being in talking terms...

Bájate del burro, please, if you can....at least for a while and with me, man!

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 11:55:40 AM | 130

Elsi...

The way I know what satellites were used is because there are only two satellite navigation systems in existence...GPS and Glonass...

There is no other navigation satellite system in our solar system...

And then you tell me to 'get off my donkey...?'

Oh well...I am not insulted...I like donkeys and have two beautiful horses on my farm...both of which are much much smarter than Thierry Meyssan...

You will be waiting for a long time for me to apologize to a woman for mentioning underwear...what is that something holy...?

Besides it was not meant in any kind of derogatory way...even though you are getting on my nerves by posting long tracts from the dummy Meyssan...

You even said he is a fanboy of the Rotting Halloween Pumpkin King...as Mexican former president Vicente Fox calls the Orangutan...after his comments about 's***hole countries...'

Yet you defend this dummy who clearly has no sense even about Donald Dump...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 1:15:15 PM | 131

@FB,

The way I know what satellites were used is because there are only two satellite navigation systems in existence...GPS and Glonass...

There is no other navigation satellite system in our solar system...

Of course, you, clearly, are so blinded by your own brilliance that can not even consider that everybody here, included me, knows that there are two systems satellites can use. But, I fear that both, the Russians, and even me myself, being a plain woman, obviously are referring to what particular satellite of what particular nation/-s the coordinates were transmitted from....That´s the issue, and so it has been written by Thierry Meyssan, dummy or not dummy according to your own very personal excluyent consideration of almost all the population of the world.

Bájate del burro, it is said here to people who is not able even to consider another point of view, also to intransigent and arrogant people...

....You will be waiting for a long time for me to apologize to a woman for mentioning underwear...what is that something holy...?

Nothing holy...but, I really hate that any man with whom I just have talked two times ( and even after talking a year ) mentions my underwear in a conversation which not verse on that topic, as it is this one, about geopolitcs...I consider that a grosería de tomo y lomo and something of really bad taste...Thus, from now on, I will take care in not engaging with you ever more, whatever you could say, as it is my custom with all those in the "alt-media" who insult me grossly and treat me with lack of respect....For being so much against Trump, you seem to be from those who felt liberated by his gross and bad manners and think that todo el monte es orégano...You have really slided with me there....

....even though you are getting on my nerves by posting long tracts from the dummy Meyssan...

Pues te tomas una tila, tío!, I post it in case anyone could find it informative, it is not you the only destinatary.

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 2:35:20 PM | 132

Elsi says...

'...the Russians, and even me myself, being a plain woman, obviously are referring to what particular satellite of what particular nation/-s the coordinates were transmitted from...'

See...this is why people who do not understand these things should not make lots of squeaky noises...

What you describe has no connection with the reality of how satellite navigation [satnav] works...

The 'coordinates' are entered into the device by the person using it...

If you have a GPS car navigator...you tell it where you want to go...you do not ask some satellite system to send you coordinates...

The same is true with your phone...punch in a location of a street and you will be guided to that destination...

The satnav receiver in your phone is a radio receiver...

It only receives signals from the GPS/Glonass satellites...

These signals tell the phone where exactly it is located anywhere on earth...

that's how GPS/Glonass works in all aircraft...from passenger jets to model airplanes...just like a phone...

There is no sending of coordinates...it knows where it is and you tell it where you want to go...

If you took a moment to stop and think about some of the things I have written here it would hep you to better understand how these things work...

I felt genuinely badly for you and the abuse you described on the Saker blog...but you are a high-strung woman...like a spirited horse...

Now you want to make me feel guilty for mentioning your underwear...well I'm not going to...you are too sensitive...

I considered you a friend here...and certainly you seem to have a sense of dignity...I do respect that...but you have to show some respect also...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 3:00:53 PM | 133

The 'coordinates' are entered into the device by the person using it.

Of course, man, but those coordinates, in the case of these particular drones of the "swarm attack", to be directed as a whole to attack and destroy, without interferring one into another, some vessels and aircrafts in both, and distant amongst them, Russian bases, were provided by intelligence data collected by a certain country´s satellite....Thus, the coordinates were, indeed, provided by a satellite of a certain country still for determination by the Russians....and after that introuduced into the devices programming software....
I am just waiting for the result of the research....I bet Pentagon....you see....

Now, you compare me with a horse...., just fixing the mess....Oh, your are really a gross....,or a cowboy too much time out of civilization or contact with women.... You have luck that in this case it happens that I love horses and so I do not felel offended by your comparisson....But the other I can not admit it....And yes, in case it is difficult for you to understand, it is you who must feel guilty by that fro the simple reason that it was you who made the offense...

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 3:45:55 PM | 134

Elsi says...

'...those coordinates...of the...Russian bases, were provided by intelligence data collected by a certain country´s satellite...'

Ok...I see what you are saying...

Yes you are correct...and that is a very good point...

See...we can find a solution...I will pay you a compliment now that this is intelligent thinking...

Btw...I do like spirited horses...they are the most interesting kind...

Just you have to be very careful around them...as I am now learning...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 4:34:38 PM | 135

Hey FB, according to you Mercouris, Meyssan and our own james, nonsense factory, etc. are all dummies or variants of. So, from a canuck to another, why dont you go fuck yourself somewhere else?

Regards,

Posted by: Lozion | Jan 14, 2018 5:17:17 PM | 136

ooh...Lozion is making big brave noises...

Of course he wouldn't be so free with his big fat lips in person...now would he...?

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 5:46:29 PM | 137

Maria Del Monte - Y se amaron dos caballos

Posted by: elsi | Jan 14, 2018 5:51:47 PM | 138

FB @ 131

Going back further, GPS was derived from the US Naval global positioning system (including submarines) developed by Milo Clauson a research faculty member at the Oregon State University College of Oceanography.

Posted by: Krollchem | Jan 14, 2018 6:18:00 PM | 139

@ all the FB haters, or rather in defense of FB.

Do you people ever consider the possibility that statements released by the Russian MOD, maybe every once in a while being less than accurate for political gain, or do you prefer to take anything at face value coming from said MOD?
Not being an expert in electronics and 'flying machines, actually I don't have a clue, so I won't comment on this. However, I do understand a thing or two when it comes to the chemistry of energetic materials and warhead design.

Quote from elsi, 127:
'- the artisanal bombs that the drones were equipped with weighed about 400 grams. They have been conceived on the basis of quaternary nitrate and blocks of metal. This explosive is not produced locally. Several states produce it. One of these is Ukraine.'

This may be true for industrial scale production but, given the small amount of explosives (my guesstimate ~120-150 grams for that type of ABF warhead each) applied in these mini-BLUs, assuming it wasn't produced locally in some guy‘s basement is flat out wrong.
For a chemist or student of chemistry skilled in the art a couple of routes for synthesis spring to mind immediately - all with precursors readily available to the head choppers. To cut it short, what's necessary to synthesize this energetic compound in a batch process is some rather basic knowledge in chemistry and basic lab equipment.
From the looks of the lumps of explosive utilized the explosive is a polymer/wax-bonded aluminized PETN composition (if indeed PETN is the energetic compound), either cast cured or pressed. Subsequently a meager ~1 kg of PETN is enough for 10 munitions. The same is true for RDX.

Jason states @122:
Quote: 'the ammunition fins and detonators were not crafted by some plastic ejection molding factory in syria that's for sure.'

In the age of 3D-printing creating the tail assembly is a piece of cake, every hobbyist can do this. Create your model using 3D software e.g. Maya, 3dsmax, softimage, Blender (Blender is for free and quite powerful) convert in stl-format - print it. 3D printers cost a couple hundred of $ these days.
Different approach: create a mold and use either thermoplastics or castable polymer resin.

The fuse looks to be a very simple single action striker design, nothing sophisticated with these. The detonator? If you lack the knowledge to build a custom-made one, use a percussion/friction cap from a life cartridge and you're all set.

Quote: '…..but if viewing from technical, their efficiency to kill with such payload suggest accuracy and not swarming, and that requires perfection.'

This is wrong. The warhead design is of ABF type – annular blast fragmentation – with, given the size of the warheads, a potential kill radius of ~7-8 m, depending on the number and mass of ball bearings loaded into the BLU. Thus, 13 x 10 warheads clearly indicate the attack was not meant to be of pinpoint accuracy but rather an attempt of carpet bomb the target area.
The attack wasn‘t meant to inflict maximum damage, rather it‘s purpose was that of a propaganda stunt with the additional benefit of increasing the perceived threat level for Russian personnel at the base.

Yes, technicalities matter - they often give clues about what is really going on behind the scenes.

Why not analyzing/criticizing a person‘s analysis instead of picking on somebody who‘s giving his best shot simply because it does not fit one‘s own take on the matter.

Posted by: Hmpf | Jan 14, 2018 6:32:00 PM | 140

140

Russian deputy: Ukraine preparing attack of drones on Crimea

A Russian State Duma deputy has warned of an impending drone attack planned by Ukrainian special services against the annexed Crimean peninsula. Ex-Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Ruslan Balbek claimed that the drone attack would bear similarities to last week’s strike on Russian military installations in Syria, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported on Thursday.

He said that the attack would be portrayed as an act of resistance by members of the Crimean Tatar community, which largely opposed Russia's annexation of the peninsula.

“The saboteurs don’t believe in the successful outcome of the attack, the main goal is information noise,” he said.

Balbek claimed that he was tipped off about the plan by members of the Ukrainian-based Crimean Tatar community.

“The very fact that this will be claimed a ‘Crimean-Tatar resistance operation’ should have the effect of an exploding bomb,” he said.

Posted by: somebody | Jan 14, 2018 6:48:25 PM | 141

the way i look at it, there could be any number of organizations / groups interested destabilizing moa with their bullshit.. ... whether folks want to entertain this thought or not - best idea is to not engage with those who doesn't warrant engagement.. ignore people you don't see eye to eye with, as opposed to creating what this thread has become..

Posted by: james | Jan 14, 2018 6:53:27 PM | 142

@142 & @All
Apologies to all the bar patrons for losing my temper. FB, you reap what you sow..

Posted by: Lozion | Jan 14, 2018 7:45:07 PM | 143

Hmpf @ 140...

Appreciate the technical insight...

Yes technicalities do matter...but not to a certain clique on this website who suffer from paranoid delusions that someone is trying infiltrate and sabotage their little game mutual stroking...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 8:34:16 PM | 144

James @ 142...

Who appointed you sheriff of this or any other thread...?

If you don't like what I post then ignore it...a number of people here have given positive feedback...but in your book nobody counts except you and your pathetic little clique...

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 9:02:25 PM | 145

Oh and btw James...I remember Elsi wondering if you are some kind of moderator here...

No wonder...you act like this is your own personal little sandlot and it's obvious to everyone...

I especially like your silly little 'reviews' of comments...like the old school marm giving out little gold stars...who could take you seriously...?

Posted by: FB | Jan 14, 2018 9:09:46 PM | 146

fb quote - "If you don't like what I post then ignore it.."


please do try to take your own advice...

Posted by: james | Jan 14, 2018 11:07:05 PM | 147

Elsi @138...

Thanks for that video...I enjoyed those wonderful caballos...

But I hope you are not a fan of bullfighting...

Posted by: FB | Jan 15, 2018 9:03:14 AM | 148

to the "Clique"

Some people are so accustomed to being obnoxious that they pack the
equivalent of S500- S400,´S300, Pantsir and OerlikonsIV for all those
that may inadvertently or not trouble their magistral perorations.

Hush, irreverent pupils! The Magister must not be disturbed!

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 15, 2018 9:27:21 AM | 149

Thank you CarlD...

This is of course correct...pupils must know their place...

Otherwise what would we have...a cacophony of turkey vocalizations...?

Posted by: FB | Jan 15, 2018 11:03:01 AM | 150

FB

You mean "Gobbling"

Glad to see that as a drone specialist you are yet to gain some proficiency in literature-

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 15, 2018 12:33:17 PM | 151

FB

From a pupil to the Magister

Some time ago there was a proposed autopilot for RC which involved patches of radio active material
, one at each wing tip, one on the nose and one on the tail coupled to an amplifier circuit and the required servos.

the idea was/is that the static electricity difference is strong enough that any variation in level flight
would be accompanied by a voltage differential across that `plane which would be amplified by the
electronic circuit and electrical pulses fed to the yaw/pitch/roll surfaces.

Have you ever since this system put into practical use?

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 15, 2018 12:51:29 PM | 152

152

correction:

have you ever seen this system put in actual operation?

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 15, 2018 12:52:45 PM | 153

@152 and 153...

No...

Posted by: FB | Jan 15, 2018 3:02:00 PM | 154

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