Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 08, 2017

Missing - A Motive For The Las Vegas Killing Spree

The currently known tale of the Las Vegas mass murder feels astonishingly incomplete. Several rumors and reports appeared about a potential second shooter. But there is no hard evidence. The police keeps saying there was only one person involved. It claims to have copious video evidence of that. None has yet been released.

It seems possible that one person alone did this. A large, densely packed crowd, a position high up, automatic weapons - it was a "shooting fish in a barrel" situation - not a chance to miss.

The shooter was white. He was therefore mentally disturbed. Would he have been black, he would have been an evil terrorist. But being mentally disturbed or under pharmaceutical influence doe not fit with the long planning and the diligence of preparation.

Stephen Paddock, the allegedly lone shooter, is a curious personality. Only bits of his life seem to be known. An accountant who, on the side, made millions in real estates? He must have been a thrifty person do achieve that, with a good sense for numbers. Why would such a person go to casinos and put money into video poker machines? It is a sure way to lose and any sane persons knows this.

The above gives rise to dozens of crazy theories. The man must have been CIA. ISIS ordered him to do it. Putin must have done it to somehow sow discord in America.

All these theories miss the same decisive detail that is lacking in the prevalent tale. A rational motive.

Posted by b on October 8, 2017 at 01:51 PM | Permalink

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There is a "rational motive" if this was another false flag operation.
Read Paul Craig Roberts column on this matter, see http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/10/07/las-vegas-final-comment/

Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 8, 2017 1:53:53 PM | 1

The motive? Pat Buchanan: The dead soul of Stephen Paddock

http://www.unz.com/pbuchanan/the-dead-soul-of-stephen-paddock/

Posted by: Virgile | Oct 8, 2017 2:06:35 PM | 2

@1

Interesting that when you click the youtube link that PCR provides you get the message:

"This video is no longer available because the YouTube account associated with this video has been terminated."

Posted by: spudski | Oct 8, 2017 2:07:39 PM | 3

speculation is rampant, but there is not a lot to go on... apparently he had rented a hotel overlooking lalapoloosa prior to the event in august but didn't show up for his stay... more fodder for the conjecture mill, but really nothing much of substance..

Posted by: james | Oct 8, 2017 2:10:11 PM | 4

4chan has a thread(s) on this. Lot of tosh, naturally, but a lot that appeals to a sense of cause & effect.

https://voat.co/v/4chan/2172732

Posted by: ruralito | Oct 8, 2017 2:15:25 PM | 5

with 500 purportedly wounded why have there been no deaths reported in addition to 59 initially killed? something does not smell right

Posted by: Ace Hanlon | Oct 8, 2017 2:15:37 PM | 6


MYSTERIES SURROUNDING LAS VEGAS KILLINGS

By Richard Galustian

There are more questions than answers at this point.

Many come from Hotel Guest Brian Hodge who was in the next room number 32134 to the alleged Vegas Shooter, Stephen Paddock, who was in room 32135.

The alleged shooter, Sixty-four-year-old Stephen Paddock hid himself in the casino hotel room with 10 guns, for several days, with housekeeping visiting every day, none of the weapons were known to have been high powered scoped automatic weapons, where he is said to have shot from the 32nd floor over 500 meters away,a long way, on a concert crowd who were at ground level, massacring 58 and wounding 527 others.

Technically there are many questions that beg answers regarding this alleged scenario. Too numerous to bother mentioning. Such readers research.

But in part the narrative of the case has been blown wide open after Brian Hodge, who was staying next door to Paddock, at the Mandalay Bay Hotel, came forward, to an Australian newspaper, with some details he witnessed.

When frantic calls began to pour into the Las Vegas Police Emergency number 911 that night with news of an active shooting taking place at the concert near the hotel, several initial eye witnesses claimed when they called 911 that there were multiple shooters firing down upon the crowd.

All 911 calls are recorded.

There are literally thousands of CCTV camera's in and around a casino. All have been confiscated

For some reason, the mainstream media keeps pushing the narrative that there was only one shooter involved, even though mounting evidence is starting to indicate otherwise.

The Australian man Brian Hodge was staying in the room next to Paddock.

After hearing gun fire while in an elevator going up to his room, he pushed the ground floor button and Hodge and others rushed to hide in the bushes and called 911 for help.

Hodge then told Australian Press something shocking; that he was certain that this massacre was not carried out by Stephen Paddock alone because he says there were multiple hotel staff dead in the hotel as well as multiple shooters. "I was just hiding waiting for police to come get us. He is the only one to say there was more than one gunman. We were hiding in the bushes outside waiting for the police over 5 minutes.” adding he thought from the sounds that there was one "machine gun" from his floor. He said the whole floor is vacant now as a crime scene but he emphatically said someone in uniform "killed the security guard on my floor.”

Hodge isn’t the only person who believes there was more than one shooter that carried out the massacre.

Many people judged the sounds, though in such an environment with echoes are difficulty to assess. Many former and current military, some British, personnel in the crowd believe that there was more than one shooter - the shooting went on for 10 minutes until the authorities claim to have broke into the 32nd floor where Paddock allegedly shot himself in the head. Then photographed the scene in the room including a dead Stephen Paddock and immediately made those pictures available to the public. A curious think for law enforcement to do.

Why would a retired accountant, a millionaire, with no criminal history, who according to his own family, didn’t even like guns, suddenly decide to commit the worst mass-casualty shooting in United States history?

Even respected Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy is scoffing at the narrative that this was carried out by a lone shooter.

Now to answe the question asked by MoA; a guess at a motive.

My hypothesis is this. An email supposedly exists, now no where to be found, that circulated in the first hour of the shootings by someone claiming to be a disgruntled local FBI agent is chilling, and supports the theory that there was in fact more than one shooter. In this alleged anonymously written email that was said to have been sent by an FBI agent, the text appears to reveal a conspiracy of Benghazi-level/'Fast and Furious' proportions.

The hypothesis is that the shooter(s) were actually FBI agents who were involved in a gun running scheme also similar to the shenanigans in Benghazi to Syria.

But obviously things unfortunately didn’t go as planned.

Such stings are very often used to draw out buyers who are then arrested.

A screenshot of the email was seen by a source and a note of its contents made; it read: “The LVMPD knows the motive behind the attack, but the FBI will not allow us to release the motive because it implicates the FBI in illegal arms deals and negotiations with ISIS terrorists within U.S. borders.”

“Stephen Paddock was, must have been, an undercover FBI agent or more likely a civilian willing participant, more than just an informant, probably was the point man for many stings and he'd done it before. His participation was a perfect cover as a 'high roller', for multiple illegal arms deals in the Las Vegas area in a gun running entrapment scheme very similar to 'Fast and Furious'.

The theory goes Paddock thought he was engaging in another routine arms entrapment, but ISIS operatives who were going to meet him learned, or were tipped off, about the entrapment scheme and Paddock’s true identity.

They instantly killed him in his room and carried out the massacre partly from
His room and a 4th floor room they must have had, and then fled the scene.”

The 4th floor (and exact room) is beyond doubt due to video footage.

The email concluded that some people within the LV police department are “disgusted” and are “pushing for this information to be released to the public.”

While this email cannot be confirmed as being written by an actual FBI agent at this time, this conclusion of what still is a theory makes sense.

It’s entirely possible that this was a gun-running scheme gone wrong because of the sheer quantity of guns found in Paddock's room and home; nearly a hundred.

Remember that ISIS immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. After months of targeting Las Vegas, perhaps ISIS had the opportunity to finally carry out an attack. But they must have had some help.

Back in May, ISIS released a 44-minute-long video of the strip in Las Vegas, calling on their supporters to carry out attacks on this area.

A small but important point is all the windows of all Vegas hotels are extremely thick and cannot be opened, the thickness to withstand hurricanes. Yes they could be smashed by high calibre bullets I guess but I'm not a ballistics expert so don't know what it would take to break this windows.

More facts and evidence will unfold no doubt in the coming weeks but that this was the act of a 'lone gunman', like Lee Harvey Oswald, is as ridiculous saying LHO only killed Kennedy.

Don't hold your breath though. We still don't know the truth of that lie and that happened in 1963!

Posted by: Richard | Oct 8, 2017 2:20:52 PM | 7

Obviously he didn't want to die but was trapped by police in his room.Maybe he wanted to get the ultimate kick.Who knows.He is dead.We can't ask him anymore

Posted by: Theo | Oct 8, 2017 2:21:43 PM | 8

A rational motive? The entire US is hitting peak-irrational. We're trained in FPS games, we're armed, we're medicated into a stupor, and we're ready! To fucking murder each other! Hey, what's good for America's enemies is good for Americans, right? As for motive we might rather ask, who has promoted this perfect storm?

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 2:21:50 PM | 9

Paul Craig Roberts' 'final' clearheaded piece re Vegas false flag is linked to by Perimeter #1.

Jim Stone freelance ( http://82.221.129.208/.zx0.html) has pointed out that there is video and reports of other hotels being shot up same evening, reports which then were scrubbed.

Huge effort to muddy the waters re whatever went on.

re Richard #7, there is a great deal now known about the Kennedy coup d'etat.

Only thing missing from the false flag template is a passport left behind. Perpetrators creative inspiration deemed the passport theme capable of triggering a global scale 'rolling of the eyes'?

Lest we forget, ISIS is peedominantly a US/Israeli creation.

Anyody who doesn't disbelieve the official cacophany of bs re the Las Vegas whatever it wass is giving evidence of belonging to the very large common human subset/category: naive idiot.

Posted by: Robert Snefjella | Oct 8, 2017 2:41:52 PM | 10

As per the PCR article linked to @1, a google image search and a search on twitter turned up no images of injured or dead people. Thousands of people at a concert with their iphones and whatever and nothing on social media?
@7's senario seems more likely - some sort of a deal gone wrong and a shootout between two groups, perhaps mostly with the casino, which is now being coverred up for whatever reason.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 8, 2017 2:43:54 PM | 11

There is no obvious reason for this to be a conspiracy. Politically this event was completely insignificant. I think he just did it to have some meaning in his life and go out with a blast. He got very rich, probably got everything crossed out he ever wished for leaving only something spectacular like mass murder.

It's like computer game creator Richard Garriott who desperately had to go into space.

Posted by: xor | Oct 8, 2017 2:57:22 PM | 12


TYPOS AND MISTAKES CORRECTED SO THIS SUPERSEDES PREVIOUS PIECE WITH SAME TOTLE 15 minutes ago - SORRY!


MYSTERIES SURROUNDING LAS VEGAS KILLINGS

By Richard Galustian

There are more questions than answers at this point.

Many come from Hotel Guest Brian Hodge who was in the next room number 32134 to the alleged Vegas Shooter, Stephen Paddock, who was in room 32135.

The alleged shooter, Sixty-four-year-old Stephen Paddock hid himself in the casino hotel room with 10 guns, for several days, with housekeeping visiting every day, none of the weapons were known to have been high powered scoped automatic weapons, where he is said to have shot from the 32nd floor over 500 meters away, a long way, on a concert crowd who were at ground level, massacring 58 and wounding 527 others.

Technically there are many questions that beg answers regarding this alleged scenario. Too numerous to bother mentioning. Suggest readers research.

But in part the narrative of the case has been blown wide open after Brian Hodge, who was staying next door to Paddock, at the Mandalay Bay Hotel, came forward, to an Australian newspaper, with some details he witnessed.

When frantic calls began to pour into the Las Vegas Police Emergency number 911 that night with news of an active shooting taking place at the concert near the hotel, several initial eye witnesses claimed when they called 911 that there were multiple shooters firing down upon the crowd.

All 911 calls are recorded.

There are literally thousands of CCTV camera's in and around a casino. All have been confiscated

For some reason, the mainstream media keeps pushing the narrative that there was only one shooter involved, even though mounting evidence is starting to indicate otherwise.

The Australian man Brian Hodge was staying in the room next to Paddock.

After hearing gun fire while in an elevator going up to his room, he pushed the ground floor button and Hodge and others rushed to hide in the bushes and called 911 for help.

Hodge then told Australian Press something shocking; that he was certain that this massacre was not carried out by Stephen Paddock alone because he says there were multiple hotel staff dead in the hotel as well as multiple shooters. "I was just hiding waiting for police to come get us. He is not the only one to say there was more than one gunman. We were hiding in the bushes outside waiting for the police over 5 minutes.” adding he thought from the sounds that there was one "machine gun" from his floor. He said the whole floor is vacant now as a crime scene but he emphatically said someone in uniform "killed the security guard on my floor.”

Hodge isn’t the only person who believes there was more than one shooter that carried out the massacre.

Many people judged so though the sounds in such an environment with echoes are difficulty to assess. Many former and current military, some British, personnel in the crowd believe that there was more than one shooter - the shooting went on for 10 minutes until the authorities claim to have broke into the 32nd floor where Paddock allegedly shot himself in the head. Then photographed the scene in the room including a dead Stephen Paddock and immediately made those pictures available to the public. A curious thing for law enforcement to do.

Why would a retired accountant, a millionaire, with no criminal history, who according to his own family, didn’t even like guns, suddenly decide to commit the worst mass-casualty shooting in United States history?

Even respected Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy is scoffing at the narrative that this was carried out by a lone shooter.

Now to answe the question asked by MoA; a guess at a motive.

My hypothesis is this. It's triggered by an alleged email, now no where to be found, that circulated amongst a small group of law enforcement on the ground in the first hour of the shootings by someone claiming to be a disgruntled local FBI agent is chilling, and supports the theory that there was more than one shooter. In this alleged anonymously written email that was said to have been sent by an FBI agent, the text appears to reveal a conspiracy of Benghazi-level/'Fast and Furious' proportions.

The hypothesis is that those involved were actually FBI agents who were engaged in a gun running scheme also similar to the shenanigans in Benghazi and weapons exports from there to Syria.

But obviously things unfortunately didn’t go as planned.

Such stings are very often used to draw out buyers who are then arrested.

A screenshot of the email was seen by a source and a note of its contents made; it read: “The LVMPD knows the motive behind the attack, but the FBI will not allow us to release the motive because it implicates the FBI in illegal arms deals and negotiations with ISIS terrorists within U.S. borders.”

“Stephen Paddock was, must have been, an undercover FBI agent or more likely a civilian willing participant, more than just an informant, probably was the point man for many stings and he'd done it before. His participation was a perfect cover as a 'high roller', for multiple illegal arms deals in the Las Vegas area in a gun running entrapment scheme very similar to 'Fast and Furious'.

My theory goes Paddock thought he was engaging in another routine arms entrapment, but ISIS operatives who were going to meet him learned, or were tipped off, about the entrapment scheme and Paddock’s true identity.

They instantly killed him in his room and carried out the massacre partly from
His room and a 4th floor room they must have had, and then fled the scene.”

The 4th floor (and exact room) is beyond doubt due to video footage. Who was booked in that 4th floor room with the broken window?

The email concluded that some people within the LV police department are “disgusted” and are “pushing for this information to be released to the public.”

While this email cannot be confirmed as being written by an actual FBI agent at this time, this conclusion of what still is a theory makes sense.

It’s entirely possible that this was a gun-running scheme gone wrong because of the sheer quantity of guns found in Paddock's room and home; nearly a hundred.

Remember that ISIS immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. After months of targeting Las Vegas, perhaps ISIS had the opportunity to finally carry out an attack. But they must have had some help.

Back in May, ISIS released a 44-minute-long video of the strip in Las Vegas, calling on their supporters to carry out attacks on this area.

A small but important point is all the windows of all Vegas hotels are extremely thick and cannot be opened, the thickness to withstand hurricanes. Yes they could be smashed by high calibre bullets I guess but I'm not a ballistics expert so don't know what it would take to break this windows.

More facts and evidence will unfold no doubt in the coming weeks but that this was the act of a 'lone gunman', like Lee Harvey Oswald, is as ridiculous saying LHO only killed Kennedy.

Don't hold your breath though. We still don't know the truth of that lie and that happened in 1963!

Posted by: Richard | Oct 8, 2017


Posted by: Richard | Oct 8, 2017 2:58:05 PM | 13

No Question FBI & LVMPD know what Happened !!
Gun Running gone wrong, exactly due to NV Gun Laws, Paddock was, is, the "Patsy", Period !! Motive is, Paddock was in for a deal, or was the "Sting". One thing is very Clear, he was USED!! He, repeat, he is Not "Perp"!! If he the Lone Ranger, explain, fourth floor videos. Multiple Shooters, Period. Aussie Guy said as much. I have stayed in Mandalay, That window is probably a foot thick, I am scared of heights, my wife chided me to ask me with a Grim, go to the window and look at street. I just dismiss, single shooter hauling up 20 plus guns in a hotel room!! I will look amiss hauling 10 or more suitcases on different days to my room & Hotel Bell Hop to security wouldn't notice this odd actions? Fools No one, CIA "False Flag", Operation Gladio.

Posted by: shaw | Oct 8, 2017 2:58:13 PM | 14

I'm just thinking of that old Boomtown Rats song: "And you can see no reasons, 'cause there are no reasons, what reason do you need to be shown?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yteMugRAc0

Personally I think that insisting on a rational motive for all human behaviour is the swiftest and surest path to irrationality. That's basically what conspiracy theories are. That's what most ideologies are. An attempt to erect a structure around chaos to make it reducible to order. The problem is, the assumptions you have to make in order to make the world into a coherent pattern become progressively more bonkers.

Posted by: Grimgrin | Oct 8, 2017 3:02:10 PM | 15

smuggled a deadly arsenal of 23 weapons, including 16 assault rifles, into his sniper's nest in a Las Vegas hotel.Stephen Paddock, 64, carried the weapons in ten suitcases into his 32nd floor room at the Mandalay Bay Hotel and Casino before launching his shooting spree.He also brought in a massive cache of .223-calibre military-grade bullets capable of disintegrating bone and leaving exit-wounds the size of grapefruits, said police.The guns included an AR-15 and an AK-47 as well as four Daniel Defense DDM4 rifles, three FN-15s and other rifles made by Sig Sauer.

I have also heard of:
14 bump stocks equipped rifles
9mm pistols
sawed off shotgun
2 .50 cal rifles (used to try to take out the oil tanks and start a fire at the airfield 2000' away, likely Barrett).
Silencers
Scopes
Ammo, loads of Ammo

This is a gun control freak's wet dream. So the number one motive is clearly gun control and the second amendment.

Combine this with the identity of the victims of this spectacle (white gun toting conservatives) and the motive is pretty clear. If any of you have noticed, the marxists can no longer constrain their hate, it oozes out every time the mention Trump. Supporting evidence is the massive baiting of the "far right" by declaring them Nazi's, allowing Antifa to violate the same laws that they prosecute the right for, all the fake claims from the MSM, and these clearly exaggerated, if not patently phony, "white supremicist" "terror" attacks like LV, Charlottesville, or Dylan Reed (where ever that was).

This blatant baiting of the last resistance to globalism in the US is clearly a part of their problem, reaction, solution style marxist manipulation. In case any of any of you haven't noticed, the revolution is still on and the marxists are very close to the take down of America. We are on the threashold of 1984 style control by the globalists which will include the usual communist style massacres of first Bourgouise and then later the Proletariat as well. One of the final stumbling blocks is gun control, and if this last event doesn't work we can expect more, bigger gladio style disasters until the people finally give up and aquiesce. Just like the empire is doing in Syria.

Posted by: Papa Smurf | Oct 8, 2017 3:02:33 PM | 16

@Richard thanks for the detailed post.It's very conclusive.I hadn't read your post when I posted my first comment.

Posted by: Theo | Oct 8, 2017 3:03:52 PM | 17

Or he didn't do it and is the patsy.

Posted by: goldhoarder | Oct 8, 2017 3:37:25 PM | 18

Video shows shots fired from 4th floor, not 32nd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMDNtboxEBo

Posted by: JSonofa | Oct 8, 2017 3:48:01 PM | 19

Commentators all, thank you.

Posted by: David Welsh | Oct 8, 2017 3:49:40 PM | 20

No more discussion worth the time. The "crisis actor" ads for the vegas fake have been resurrected and can be found on the web. No other speculation matters one whit. The whole thing was a large fake. One 20 minute video proves that the "shots" were on a looped tape, they keep coming on, over and over, mostly long after the place was emptied out of people.

It's a fake. The whole purpose, like the rest of these false flags in the U.S. is to declare martial law and confiscate the American citizens' guns, one of the very last bulwarks against world conquest, total world enslavement of mankind. Time the America haters realized that.

Posted by: Tony B. | Oct 8, 2017 3:50:38 PM | 21

@7/13 richard... thanks... it's plausible.. everything is speculation at this point.. it might remain this was as it did way back when too...

Posted by: james | Oct 8, 2017 3:51:50 PM | 22

Psychosis.

If that is ruled out, then we search for conspiracy.

Also, is the psychotic behavior organic or was it induced.

Then we search for conspiracy.

That's the rational approach for "motive".

The Unibomber, Zodiak Killer, Son of Sam, et al. Psychos. What was motive? No one asks once the psycho is known. They are known by deeds, not Why.

Posted by: Red Ryder | Oct 8, 2017 3:52:40 PM | 23

I want to correct my previous post. The 4th floor video has been proved to be a strobe light that was going off for hours prior to the shooting as well as later.

Speculation is dangerous. The only thing that matters are prayers for the souls of those killed as well as their families.

If this is a false flag, may God help us all.

Posted by: JSonofa | Oct 8, 2017 4:01:13 PM | 24

Easy to determine if paddock fired those weapons as much residual gunpowder would be all over his hands and clothing. The entrapment scenario begs the question: Why transfer the weapons et al at a casino hotel? Also, where are the blown-out 4th floor windows? Paddock had the corner suite and an adjoining room, which explains the distance between broken windows, likely burst out with an explosive.

But still no motive. The act was premeditated as proven by his behavior toward his lover--well insulated via distance and monetarily well endowed--and I bet she has an extensive, pricy jewelry collection. Plus he had more gear in his car--I've heard mention of a getaway plan, but haven't seen it in print. Perhaps his attitude toward Vegas changed and he decided to taint it forever from a moral standpoint--something that couldn't ever just be kept within Vegas--but without any manifesto, how is anyone supposed to get that message. Do twisted people do exceptionally evil, preplanned things just to do them? The answer appears to be yes based on previous examples.

As I wrote earlier, it's very hard to discern small but important facts not being at the crime scene. At full-auto, an AR-15/M-16 can fire over 2,000 rounds per minute; 10, 100 round magazines could easily be fired and reloaded during the 10-minute firing spree. He had means, opportunity, ability, but we cannot discern motive.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 8, 2017 4:01:29 PM | 25

PCR just posted new link to the video that was taken down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_ySNz2Lpyo
no blood visible on any of the "victims" suffering gunshot wounds. No blood on the beds, very clean major trauma.
I work in a hospital and have never seen a gunshot wound that was bloodless.

Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 8, 2017 4:08:21 PM | 26

Well, b it's good to see that you've moved away from your "just another shooting" opinion (not that guns are not a problem, but ...)

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 4:10:16 PM | 27

Only a couple of days ago I wrote about the frustrating lack of motive and the scenarios that we are left with: physiological (tumor, pychosis, drug contribution) or patsy. Of the two,patsy seems more plausible and would help to explain some "loose ends". Excerpt from my previous comment:

There's speculation that Paddock was involved with CIA (see PeacefulProsperity @258). That doesn't mean that Paddock would've willingly carried out a order for mass murder - one which would likely end in his death. But if he was on the 'radar' of intelligence agencies, he was at risk of being used as a Patsy. With this in mind, the security guard that first found Paddock's room (Jesus Campos) should be looked at closely:

- he was "on patrol" and was dispatched (by radio) to 32nd floor;

- we are told that he approached a room from which automatic gunfire could be heard - why did he do that? why not just call it in? the sound of the shooting must've been very loud on that floor;

- he had security radio (access to communications) and master card key access to rooms;

- I read that he was recently hired by the Casino;

- AFAICT no shots were fired from the room after the security guard's initial encounter with Paddock;

- despite a hail of bullets into the Hallway (over 200), this security guard suffered only a non-life-threatening leg injury. And instead of being shook-up by being shot and nearly killed, he stayed to help officers to evacuate other rooms (Did he know that Paddock was already dead?)

Photos of Jesus Campos (notice jihadi-like beard): here and here. Naturally any group that wanted to pull tis off would've wanted to have a guy placed in hotel security.

The Patsy theory lines up well with ISIS claims that Paddock was one of theirs as well as suspicions of CIA-MOSSAD support for anti-Assad extremists.

If discovered to be true, an ISIS attack of this scale could generate the public outrage needed for USA to double-down on GWOT. It is likely that USA would send more troops to ME and increase belligerence against countries that it has labeled as supporting terrorism.

And so, it is interesting that news media have no profiles of Jesus Campos. They only talk about his heroism - I can't find any news outlet that describes him as a person and what his background is. They generally don't have a photo of him (see this Newsweek atricle, for example) or use a photo of someone else(!) Why are the media so incurious about this "hero"?

MAJOR LOOSE ENDS
The Patsy theory might help to answer some nagging questions:

> Why did Paddock make reservations for places that overlook major concerts but then not use those reservations? It doesn't seem to be consistent with his methodical behavior.

Were those reservations added to the databases after the fact? (to prevent the appearance that a certain demographic was targeted)

> How did Paddock make such large amounts of money gambling? A gambling expert making the rounds on MSM news shows has said that Paddock wasn't considered to be amongst the small group of people that were considered to have mastered video poker. In his estimation, these 'masters' (the best of the best) get an edge that amounts to a mere half of one percent.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 4:36:38 PM | 28

There have been a number of erroneous theories - some fueled by comments from the police - that have been debunked or never made sense.

1. Second shooter / multiple shooters

>> Changing sound of gunfire
The sound changed because the shooter fired at least two types of weapons with different sizes of ammunition and out of two windows.

>> Flashing light from the fourth floor window
The window was not broken (so no bullets from there). The flashing light was also said to have been seen when Paddock was not firing (so it wasn't a reflection).

>> Gunmen in the concert venue
There may have been some police or citizens that had a gun and pulled them out when it became there that the concert was under attack. There are few claims of shooting from these gun holders but police have not said that there was anyone firing into the crowd other than Paddock/Patsy.


2. Paddock had help

Is mostly based on his having 10 or more heavy bags that were brought up to the room. He likely had a bellhop bring the bags up and he didn't have to bring them all up at once.


3 Paddock expected to survive/escape

Is apparently mostly based on his having a significant amount of ammunition and explosives in his car.

Survive/escape is also consistent with the Patsy theory. The Patsy never thinks that HE is a target.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 5:06:03 PM | 29

#7 "Even respected Republican Congressman Trey Gowdy "

That one gave me quite a laugh. You don't know Trey very well, do you?

BTW, the "dead" guard was the one shot through the door. He was either unconscious or "playing" dead.

"A screenshot of the email was seen by a source"

Sources, please.

Posted by: Bardi | Oct 8, 2017 5:06:30 PM | 30

How on earth is it irrational to keep the masses locked into a state of mindless fear?

Not only is it rational, rule by fear, it is also the well worn m/o and hallmark of the zionist shadow elite, which can not be reigned if our best even 'journalists, ' can not ascribe to them their psychopathic motives.

Picture fuzzy slippers stomping on your face, interspersed with real and invented instances of mass murder... forever.

Truthfully, some folks think it's a pretty good deal.

Posted by: C I eh? | Oct 8, 2017 5:20:15 PM | 31

Gun control or gun confiscation is an obsession of the hedge funds of power. Us plebs cannot be allowed to have weaponry. You can follow the gun control trail through Port Arthur, Dunblane, Sandy Hook. The patsies have one thing in common - they either lacked the mental or physical ability to carry out said acts. They are mocking us. It is an arrogance of power where they seem to be laughing and joking about the lengths to which they can go. Hey, look, an older drinker-gambler type can take out almost 60 dead and 500 injured at 1000 yards while shooting from a high vantage point (considered the most difficult by snipers).

If you doubt this check out this from a credible Iraq veteran who debunks the Paddock as killer piece by piece: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNhZRegFebg

In the Port Arthur scenario, Martin Bryant, a guy who had such a low level of intelligence that the Australian authorities gave him a guardian or carer, a man so bereft of coordination that he could not drive a car with gears and a clutch is said to have taken out 12 people in 15 seconds shooting from the hip.

The empire has lost its coordinated mind

Posted by: Lochearn | Oct 8, 2017 5:20:16 PM | 32

Congressman Trey Gowdy is probably the most intelligent and honest men in Congress. I guess you must know all the other idiots.

Posted by: Richard | Oct 8, 2017 5:20:57 PM | 33

Trump's "calm before the storm" remark is very disconcerting. Many think it refers to NK. But it could also refer to the ME.

ISIS's repeated claim of responsibility for the Vegas attack (which is given more credence the longer that an alternative motive is lacking) plus Trump's imminent decertification of the Iran deal could lead to a more aggressive ME posture.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 5:22:32 PM | 34

Suicidal-homicidal is a pretty common psychosis.

Guy was depressed, wanted to kill himself - kills his whole family too. This is a woefully common occurrence, no big conspiracy theory required to explain it. This Paddock character - looks like his family was the Las Vegas scene, that's all he had going on in his life. Having no criminal record, he was able to acquire a large arsenal of weapons and ammo, end of story.

Nobody claims the Saudis bombing a marketplace in Yemen and killing a hundred people and wounding 500 is some conspiracy theory; when some ISIS suicide bomber attacks a funeral in Baghdad and kills several hundred, we never hear about conspiracy theories - but oh, "how could it happen here?"

People living in a bubble, that's all it is. One mortar round into a Las Vegas concert crowd would have killed just as many people. One 500 pound bomb dropped by a fighter jet, same deal. One suicide bomber with a truck packed full of explosives. This guy just happened to have a bunch of assault rifles modified for high rates of fire.

Posted by: nonsense factory | Oct 8, 2017 5:23:41 PM | 35

Jackrabbit, while ISIS is of course a US/UK creation, you should keep in mind that it's(again) Rita Katz's "SITE" who keeps pressing the issue. "ISIS" claims literally every violent event in the west. But when SITE declares the "authenticity" of a claim, the last "rational" thing to do is believe it. Also if there were a shred of evidence we'd have heard it by now. Trump would be bombing a chicken farm or something in Syria, at least. The absence of a faction-aligned political motive, which is what I guess you're seeking(?), shouldn't tempt you to seek out explanations from proven propagandists.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 5:27:57 PM | 36

The whole "jihadi- like beard" thing is rather crass no? I mean it's absurd. He has the typical Latino facial hair style. Not some bushy jihadi beard. I'm getting a little angry even typing this out. Either you have never been to the US, or you have too much time on your hands, or both but all of that shit you posted was racist at best. Is Rita Katz paying you? ;-)

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 5:32:23 PM | 37

Jackrabbit @34

https://www.rt.com/news/406065-iran-nuclear-deal-germany/
‘World will change’: Trump likely to pull out of Iran nuclear deal next week – German FM
..The US withdrawal would only complicate relations with Tehran, Gabriel said, adding that nothing good “will come of us treating Iran as though it is developing nuclear weapons.” Apart from that, it creates dangers for Germany and the international community as a whole, as sinking the nuclear deal would mean the US “replacing the rule of law with the law of the strongest.”..

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 8, 2017 5:58:00 PM | 38

"they are gonna take away our guns now!" meanwhile, back on planet earth, nothing ever happens on gun control & gun sales go thru the roof w/each of these incidents.

arming the populace is part of the agenda. the US floods the world w/guns. b/c the NRA crowd is all talk about armed resistance to the gov't, and Uncle Sam knows it, the intent of gun saturation in the US is that people will turn against each other. just like in Baghdad, Juarez, etc. the belief that guns are the bulwark of liberty is about the stupidest thing anyone has ever said.

can't comment in the shooter, but it's curious that when popular resistance to the police state gets active like in St. Louis, some incident occurs to get trembling people tearfully to crawl back up & snuggle in Big Bro's loving breast.

Posted by: dumbname | Oct 8, 2017 5:59:09 PM | 39

@ 35 How do you know he was depressed?

Whot told you that?

Posted by: Lochearn | Oct 8, 2017 6:04:45 PM | 40

There were several eye witness reports of multiple shooters including someone in security garb. Including in Australian mainstream media of testimony by Aussies who were there, one - a Mr Hodges - had the room next to Stephen Paddock.

This video reportedly repeatedly censored on YouTube, clearly (albeit briefly because the photographer turned away to seek protection) shows a man in security jacket firing automatic gunfire point blank into the crowd that scatters away from him. It's on this website: http://www.stillnessinthestorm.com/2017/10/vegas-shooting-censored-footage-of-security-guard-shooter-automatic-gunfire-heard-at-ground-level-videos.html?m=1

Warning it's disturbing.

Posted by: Anoncommentator | Oct 8, 2017 6:09:48 PM | 41

Somebody said he must have been fucked up if he played video poker. Actually it's a good player's, with deep enough pockets to ride out the cycle, best chance of achieving near even odds with the house. Look it up.

Make money in real estate? Easy-peasy if you got the price of entry. New millionaires being minted every day.

Sounds like an addictive personality, lots of booze and whores and speculation about drugs. As they dig deeper into his cruises, five will get you ten it was the onboard casinos that got him off dry land.

But I guess it's catnip to the crowd that figures Sandy Hook was fake. Personally, I don't pay much attention to those retards. False flag? Pretty risky business no matter how elevated your position.

That cat just decided to go out with a bang. Beat the record in the Pulse nightclub. Maybe the autopsy will reveal a brain tumor the size of a baseball, maybe it shows fuck-all. Sometimes it just comes down to crazy. His dad was a bad actor, maybe it's in the genes. Sometimes you just gotta say WTF.

Posted by: peter | Oct 8, 2017 6:10:43 PM | 42

Maybe somebody else was the shooter and kidnapped paddock, then killed him and tried to trick the police into thinking he was the killer.

Posted by: Edward | Oct 8, 2017 6:25:30 PM | 43

The real estate angle - he had a home in ground zero of the Florida RE bubble. If you had enough to play around with when that was happening(and it's happening again), you could easily spin a few hundred thousand into millions. Without children, and a bit of a nutter, yes, it would be easy to make a successful career out of this, and the many hours of gambling in LV. House flipping is, basically, gambling. And I agree with the other poster who posited that Las Vegas was his "family". I think he clearly had a falling out - and like so many other angry dads in today's America, he wanted to take his whole family out with him, for whatever reason. "If I can't have you, no one can".

That said, the video which appears to show someone in the crowd on the ground firing a weapon is curious. Can it be explained away as a drunk, armed concertgoer who flipped out? Maybe.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 6:28:01 PM | 44

http://thenewyorknewsday.com/2017/10/06/las-vegas-shooting-victim-i-was-shot-by-a-gunman-in-the-crowd-read-more-at/#

More eye witness reports leaking into main stream media.

Posted by: ThatDamnGood | Oct 8, 2017 6:28:15 PM | 45

@sejomoje

I don't mean to be offensive sejomoje. Maybe I shouldn't have called it "jihadi-like". I live in USA and beards are not that common. Not sure what is "typical Latino facial hair style".

Please explain your theory of the crime. Should we NOT be suspicious of this "hero"?

Please explain why news media don't publish photos of this "hero" and why they are uninterested in his background.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 6:30:58 PM | 46

@ 35 How do you know he was depressed?
Whot told you that?
Posted by: Lochearn | Oct 8, 2017 6:04:45 PM | 40

Go to any search engine, like Duck Duck Go, (kind of tired of Google manipulation myself) and enter this:

man kills family and himself

You get thousands of examples. That's just what it looks like to me. Not really uncommon. No need for conspiracy to explain all those murderers, is there? There's just a certain fraction of psychotic types. The ones who end up in political office, and go on to start wars, those are the ones you have to worry about. 400,000 people killed in Syria - this guy didn't even come close.

Posted by: nonsense factory | Oct 8, 2017 6:34:28 PM | 47

ThatDamnGood @45

The video in that story which some have said shows a policeman shooting into the crowd has been debunked. The policeman has a flashlight. He raise the flashlight just as more shooting starts.

Evidence for shooters on the ground is spotty and weak at best.

Personally, I don't doubt that the shooting came from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay. I question if Paddock was the shooter. Absent any other explanation, he looks more like a patsy. Then you have to ask, what would be the intent of setting him up as patsy?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 6:44:43 PM | 48

Your first mistake jackrabbit, is believing the "hero" media hype. Yes, he has CLASSIC Latino facial hair. I mean. Anyway I don't think he's relevant at all, he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He got away lucky but it's a case of "spray and pray" on the part of the shooter, who was apparently shooting blindly, not shenanigans that saved him.

As for the rest of it, I haven't made up my mind. There are sooooo many possibilities that might implicate others' involvement but ISIS, or, "Latino ISIS" just isn't on my radar at all, sorry. It's silly.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 6:45:28 PM | 49

FFS on it goes - one of the things that hasn't been particularly well publicised because it tends to divert attention and split responsibility away from the prick who shot all those people is that many of the injured rather than the dead, were trampled in the rush to escape the shooter hence the lack of blood on many hospital admissions, trampling rarely involved penetration and penetration is a pre requisite for copious bleeding.
I recognise why so many white amerikans are desperate to shift culpability away from the arsehole and on to some mysterious 'ptb' it absolves seemingly ordinary humans from any feelings of responsibility and it allows them to continue to cower in their foolish and dangerous delusion that the elite can be brought under control by a rabble of dingbats armed with a multiplicity of weapons. Nevermind that the dingbats have been effectively neutered by a vast division of motivation - be it race, economic, abortions, GLBTQ or 'the constitution' or that faced with a trained and disciplined force of elite arselickers most of the dingbats would be dead within a few minutes of contact - this fantasy of resistance is essential for the elites since it ensures their continued survival, as for the fantasists they get what all fantasists aim for; respite from reality.

B. according to the mass murderer's brother in law, the killer had developed a system based upon regression analysis of vegas slot machines, that improved his odds to a few points ahead of the house. He never touched the tables - I guess because he would have been tossed as a card counter if he brought maths to them, and of course he needed a big pot right from the start so he could weather the bad runs but apparently his dedicated slot machining returned him around USD $100, 000 per annum which was more that he could hope to pull down as a corporate number cruncher. AFAIK maths on slots is tolerated by the casinos, I dunno if that's because because so few are successful at it or that it is much more difficult to detect and prove.

Back in the day when Oz casinos allowed low minimum bets, high max bets and only shuffled three decks into the shoe, I used to play at the tables and no card counting was needed or possible since a chunk of random cards was cut outta the deck. I could make a few bucks an hour playing the house game back at itself and picking up a 3 to 2 payout for blackjacks. It required far more obsessional dedication that I was prepared to put in and so I moved on.

The fact that this arsehole was prepared to sit at a rack of machines for hours on end feeding the slots endlessly IMO points to an obsessional personality capable of both focus and dehumanisaton necessary to fire machine guns at innocents' heads.
A deadset arsehole 100% unworthy of the attention he has been getting.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 8, 2017 6:47:56 PM | 50

nonsense factory @47:

man kills family and himself
But there's a reason why they get depressed. Loss of job. Financial stress. And often a history of abusive behavior. They have found nothing like that with Paddock.

And his planning makes the "just snapped" explanation moot.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 6:50:58 PM | 51

Debs there was an unauthorized leaked hospital photo that showed a bloodstreaked ER hallway, not a Hollywood scene at all, but actually what you'd expect an ER hallway that was accepting gurney after gurney after gurney of bleeding victims to look like. Anyway in all of these incidents you will have amateur troublemakers trying to make a name for themselves, this has become a culture-fad since the Boston Marathon bombing.

I think your analysis is spot on. And I also think that Vegas is dirty enough from top to bottom to cover up any sort of dispute he had with a particular casino, law enforcement, city officials, or all three. We'll probably never know the "motive" because the entire adult Disneyland clan has their own thin blue line and always has.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 6:58:47 PM | 52

At ZH someone noted that the independently-operated, partially-Saudi owned Four Seasons Hotel is located on floors 35-39 (5 floors) of the Mandalay.

Security Guard Jesus Campos was dispatched to check on a door alarm on the 32nd floor.

It was reported that Paddock had done something to the door to block accessing the 32nd floor from the stairwell. Explanation: stairwell door was close to the door of his room and he didn't want to be surprised (thus his video setup). But can we rule out Campos' setting that door block after the real shooters use the stairwell to go up to the Four Seasons?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 7:14:40 PM | 53

Are you confusing the Saudis with *their* patsies?? The Saudis own suites and floors in basically every major hotel on the planet, fwiw. And they don't shit in their own nests, let alone do their own dirty work. This is more ABSURD Islamophobic SITE-piggybacking BS posted by some kid o 4chan(yes I read Reddit, lol), but now I'm really starting to question why you're promoting it so wholeheartedly.

Latino ISIS. LOL isn't that some shit that the Minutemen Border Patrol fanatics were pushing, that the Mexicans would "let" ISIS in? Is to laugh.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 7:20:14 PM | 54

@51 Jackrabbit
"But there's a reason why they get depressed. Loss of job. Financial stress. And often a history of abusive behavior. They have found nothing like that with Paddock."

Well, some of those factors did show up, some reports of abusive behavior towards his girlfriend. But, you know, none of this explains much. Why kill your whole family, even if you're depressed? Where's the motive for that? Every social norm says a good man lays down his life to protect his family. Some people, they just go off the rails. We can't figure out what's going on inside their heads, from some media consumer viewpoint. We do know he'd been visiting a psychiatrist, had been given Valium, that's linked to suicidal behaviors.

When something like this happens, people want to tie it to some rational cause - some people want to use it role back gun ownership, some people want to use it for some other political purpose - it just doesn't work. He'd targeted another music festival the week before, headliners from the 'liberal' sphere, not 'conservative' country music - but shit, a music festival is just a music festival. ISIS likes to target music festivals, or any crowd - because there are lots of people there.

Sometimes there's no rational explanation for irrational behavior. Guy wanted to kill a lot of people, make a big scene - I've seen suicidal types with similar behaviors. We get something like 100 suicides a day in this country. This just looks like one who went one step beyond.

Posted by: nonsense factory | Oct 8, 2017 7:23:19 PM | 55

Wasn't he an accountant for Lockheed Martin?
Youtube had a video with fans laying on the ground during the shooting. The video had two cell phone videos that were similar. The fans hit the deck and you could hear the firing. They were in a panic then one of the guys said they are firing blanks. The second video had the same thing. A poster on the video mentioned they were there. They said that most C&W fans have been around guns.

The poster said he has shot guns and been around them all his life. He said no one was hit, no ricochet, no sound of bullets whizzing by (he said he knows that sound). He said the whole thing was fake. The video was up a few days after the shooting. The next day it was removed for...get this...bullying! This whole thing and the story is fake.

Posted by: Biz Boy | Oct 8, 2017 7:31:41 PM | 56

http://www.stillnessinthestorm.com/2017/10/vegas-shooting-censored-footage-of-security-guard-shooter-automatic-gunfire-heard-at-ground-level-videos.html?m=1

This video clearly albeit briefly shows a man in security jacket at ground level firing point blank into the crowd.

Posted by: Anoncommentator | Oct 8, 2017 7:36:27 PM | 57


Paddock was an arms dealer. That's why he brought 34 guns to the room; he was trying to SELL them.

But whoever was going to buy the guns assassinated him and then opened fire on the crowd below.

Also, there ARE multiple shooters. There are videos on YouTube where you can here 2 machine guns going off at the SAME Time. Do a YouTube search for "clear proof of multiple shooters in Vegas." It is indisputable. One of the gunman sounds like he may be on the ground level.

There is also a YouTube video where Paddock's brother comes dangerously close to calling his brother an ARMS DEALER but then cuts himself off in mid-sentence.

The whole thing wreaks of a gun running operation and a Mossad operation.

As for repeated claims of ISIS responsibility, it is well know by Moon of Alabama that ISIS is a Mossad/Saudi Counterintelligence asset which they can manipulate in order to provoke Americans for their own proWar agenda.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8, 2017 8:03:09 PM | 58

I vote for high body count suicide by an arrogant control freak who wanted to show everyone "it should be done" ... brother said that if Paddock decided it was time to leave, he would simply leave ... and I think that's what he did.

Brother(s) and mother were involved in his business holdings and they appear to be solid. He usually broke even at video poker (which requires a lot of skill), sometimes made a lot, usually broke even. No mention of his video poker skills falling off. He played for something 12 hours the day before the shootings.

Suspect complications wrt Lolapalooza may have been what made him decide to send girlfriend to visit her family ... he may not have been ready, she may have been too curious, etc. He didn't ever get to the hotel so we can't know if he would have found the trajectories satisfactory.

Acquaintances reported he was often disheveled and smelling of alcohol in the last few months (since August, iirce) and a car sales man, said Paddock confided his life a miserable mess, "relationship problems" also in late August. Girlfriend reportedly said he often writhed in bed, screaming, oh no, god, know" so -- who the fuck knows -- she by some later reports said she thought he was cracking up. He's at a good age for an "it's all downhill from here" crack-up ... Two marriages, no children, spent much of the last couple decades communing with video poker machines... achieving a respectable skill level but ... they're designed to minimize loss by players winnings.

He craved the respect that comes with money, but also was arrogant and demanding ... wore sweats and flip-flops out of the house and made staff tremble ... (he'd re-order meals and drinks if his first order did not appear quickly enough).

Impressive as his "lifetime achievements" may have been compared to most ... they were fairly paltry and apparently were giving him little to no joy beyond providing financial security for his brother(s) and mom...

He did it because he could ... and he did.

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Oct 8, 2017 8:05:21 PM | 59


There is a YouTube video entitled:

"Clear evidence of multiple shooters in Las Vegas/Mandelay" (YouTube screenname: Joe Quinn)

It is a 20 Second video taken by an eyewitness in which you hear 2 automatic weapons go off at the same time.

One of the weapons sounds like a 240 or 249; the other sounds like an AR-10 maybe? I'm not a gun guy; but there were MULTIPLE SHOOTERS. It was not an ECHO.

95% chance that Mossad did this.

Not Antifa or "ISIS"

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 8, 2017 8:14:52 PM | 60

@sejomoje

Firstly, I think you're confused about what I am saying. I'm not saying that it was ISIS. I'm NOT pushing the Rita Katz SITE nonsense.

I'm warning that connecting this attack to ISIS might well be what was planned - so as to get USA more involved in the Middle East.

I think most at MoA recognize the connections between USA 'Deep State'-Israel-Saudi and extremists.

Secondly, pushing using the ISIS-Mexican Cartel angle would be completely acceptable to Katz-SITE. They could piggy-back on warnings that have already been made (see: Town Hall August 2014: ISIS, Mexican Drug Cartels Teaming Up?

Thirdly, this makes no sense: "The Saudis own suites and floors in basically every major hotel on the planet, fwiw". They might rent suites and floors but they don't OWN them. OWNing provides a greater degree of control.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

I think that what makes the most sense is that Paddock lost most of his money gambling and decided to out with a bang - hoping to hurt the Casinos that bled him dry by reducing patronage. Casinos might try to hush up Paddock's gambling losses to prevent losing patrons and getting more regulatory oversight.

But police have said that Paddock had no such money problems. He actually MADE a lot of money gambling, they say. With no other motive, we are left with patsy. Whose patsy and why?

We may not know the answer to that question until we see how things play out. Cui bono: The group that successfully uses this attack to their advantage is probably the prime suspect.

Or they will find that Paddock had a brain tumor.

<> <> <> <> <> <> <>

Some other questions:

Q: Why did Paddock use video to see the hallway? Why didn't he just barricade the door? He could've bought devices to do so.

Q: Why did Paddock - the supposed madman - make ballistic calculations? Knowledgeable people say that those calculations made no sense. Bumpstocks made your aim at those distances unreliable. The fall-off (due to gravity) at that distance is easy to estimate (and he probably knew what it was from practice).

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 9:04:49 PM | 61

Without going to any length in search of information, what is reported generally is enough to leave very simple questions The man had way in excess of necessity in arsenal in his hotel suite. For the purpose of what he is reported to have done the inventory of weapons do not match the supposedly well planned activity. Motive is not the interesting question since they can not be answered by someone who is dead. But his contacts, handlers, employers probably have a very good idea. So someone who is laundering millions and has an inventory of guns (collectors have higher profiles and more variety in their collections and do not lug them around in explosive filled vehicles)is a complete unknown to the state?

Posted by: YY | Oct 8, 2017 9:23:06 PM | 62

Actually Jackrabbit, The Four Seasons floors aren't owned per se, by the "Saudis", it's the Four Seasons itself which has partial Saudi ownership(the prince w the mole who is more western than Saudi - and his holding Co. is in Canada. Here's a list of other holdings he's in charge of. It's typical billionaire shit. Bill Gates also holds a similar majority stake in the Four Seasons. So, if we follow the theory, Bill Gates may have orchestrated it all, himself! The "article" or anon post or whatever it was misrepresents it all in a very clickbait sort of way. Like literally someone googled the Four Seasons and the went from there with their "theory". So anyway, the Saudis and other Gulf State elites DO have ownership and partial ownership of hotels all over the planet - and although there is nothing indicates it's the case at the Mandalay Bay, they often rent out entire floors and expect certain suites to be available for them and their entourages.

The problem with this theory is that there are no "clues" that would point to terror, if it were a Mossad op they'd surely at least drop a passport or two, to get the point across. So it remains an absurd theory.

As for the rest, I think our hunch about him being unstable and having a beef with the casinos, or even a serious or acute personal issue is the most likely thing. Having winnings in whatever amount they're claiming means nothing. He sounds like the type of person not to be "cheated", in any way. They may have banned him, given him a warning, or kept some of his winnings. It could all be over a few thousand dollars. In his rage, he plans this out, in the context of being depressed about ... who knows - his reclusive, childless life? Maybe he has an illness that will only get worse - it's been said that he had severe autoimmune issues, so he could even be dealing with the onset of something like Multiple Sclerosis, which is a horrible way to go near the end, absolutely awful. His girlfriend may not even know, if the diagnosis were relatively recent.

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 9:28:26 PM | 63

Slight correction wrt the "Saudi" ownership - the stake held by the Saudi conglomerate is actually through Bill Gates' OWN American holding company(The Four Seasons itself is a Canadian co.).

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 9:33:55 PM | 64

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 9:04:49 PM | 60

I'm pretty much with nonsense factory's opinion that we'll never know. Using anecdotal evidence a fair bit because in the end altho the sample is tiny, at least the reality as best as it can be observed is untampered. Back in they day we had a pretty good mate who out of the blue tried to top himself - he was living alone in the bush and altho usually not more than a pot and beer user he swallowed a coupla handfuls of assorted pills. Under normal circumstances he would have died un-noticed until someone put themselves to the hassle of travelling way past the black stump to see him.
By chance someone did decide to do that unannounced on the very morning he swallowed the jacks. Rang an ambulance took him to hospital had his stomach pumped out by which time a mob of his friends (he had many good friends (male & female) - not acquaintences but a lot of people who considered him a brother.
Some of the blokes decided to take him out fishing for a few weeks - the skipper of the trawler was one who considered himself a brother as did most of the crew.
Anyway after a few days , my mate started engaging with others who felt his initial uncommunicativeness was related to the fact he had failed and had taken "the sheila's way out" ie pills. Anyway like I said after a few days he seemed to be back to his old self cracking jokes and bein as cynical as ever about the world. They had a good run and headed back to port after a bit over 3 weeks. Everyone hopped off the boat said "see ya up Stella's (Stella Maris a bar run by the church for seamen & fishermen) in a coupla hours blah blah" My mate walked off the wharf, up the road to the nearest gun shop bought himself a 12 gauge found a tree to sit under and blew his head off.
No one has a clue why he decided he needed to end it all. During the voyage a coupla of attempts were made to get him talking about that, but he just wouldn't engage - not angrily or negatively just be changing the subject etc.

He had for whatever reason decided he wanted to die and the reason was his no one else's.

I'm sure that among the thousands of other middle aged males who top themselves each year, there are many others who die refusing to disclose their motive

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 8, 2017 9:49:54 PM | 65

The demented ones are the ones who continue to privilege 'official explanations' and sneer at 'conspiracy theories'. You sneerers are the crazy ones.

What makes most sense to me so far is that Paddock was some kind of deep state asset, involved with gun traffic and money laundering. In this particular situation, it seems, he became basically a patsy for what looks like a large scale attack on the US population, by unknown parties, presumably to include ISIS and the Deep State in some kind of configuration. The Las Vegas massacre looks almost like a military assault, involving multiple shooters, complete with diversions on the side and triangulation on the main site.

To the topic of motivation: I think Paddock's motivations are likely irrelevant as he was probably a bit player in this event. The actual motivations are probably complex and even contradictory. Basically I think the intent behind this massacre has to do with pushing folks towards accepting a deepening police state. Gun control is one goal of that push, as it means disarming the civilian population, but I'd say it is not necessarily even the most important part. Viewed in a larger context, the Las Vegas massacre also feels like a prelude to some even more devastating event, such as a large scale global war. I believe that there is also a ritual aspect, a kind of 'harvest' of human live, a large scale human sacrifice (remember that war itself can be seen as a form of human sacrifice). Like 911, this event is almost certain to lead to much larger and much more devastating events.

Our job as human beings at this time is certainly NOT to sneer at 'conspiracy theories'. Now is a time for open, honest and respectful communication based on love. We must deploy love to counteract hate.

Posted by: paul | Oct 8, 2017 10:06:03 PM | 66

This will remain a mystery. All the conspiracy buffs will have another event with many theories, and of course plenty of "evidence" to argue about.

Posted by: ab initio | Oct 8, 2017 10:34:01 PM | 67

No chaos at the hospitals,,, no long line of ambulances waiting to load victims,,, no traffic jams. Not bad for over 500 victims. Shooter at 32nd floor or was it the 4th floor. Over 40 guns to use,,, with only a few short minutes available,,, and ammo for all those guns we still havn't seen? Sure,,, I believe it all! Government wouldn't lie, right?

Posted by: ken | Oct 8, 2017 10:37:12 PM | 68

@sejomoje

Yes. I saw that ownership.

Should we just throw up our hands and stop looking at inconsistencies or possible agendas?

>> There are people that want to take guns away. Obama's Fast & Furious should not be forgotten.

>> There are people that want to get USA to recommit to the Middle East. Trump is about to decertify the Iran deal.

Which of the above groups has such a burning desire to alter policy that they might engage in mass murder?

Media is focusing on the gun debate. And on the face of it, Paddock looks like a "gun nut". Is this what Paddock intended? There's nothing that has been revealed in his background to suggest that to be true. As far as we know, he didn't despise guns or Republicans.

Did he secretly despise guns and/or Republicans? Just so he could end his life in a way that surreptitiously adds support to taking guns away? It makes no sense.

Was he suicidal like Debsisdead alludes to? Maybe, but why murder and injure dozens of innocents?

@Debsisdead

Your comparing those who take their own life to the largest mass murder in US history makes no sense.

@paul

If you think about it, multiple shooters makes little sense. Especially if you want to set up a patsy.

The only reason to have multiple shooters is to increase the number of casualties. I submit that the shooter/shooters on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay were capable of creating a large enough number of casualties to make this a major event.

Multiple shooters in different locations only risks exposing the plot.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 10:53:04 PM | 69

Posted by: sejomoje | Oct 8, 2017 6:58:47 PM | 52
Thanks yeah I vaguely remember seeing that pic of a blood-streaked hallway. As far as my POV goes that is what the information (from checkable sources) tells me - it could be a mile off but given there is no rational motive for a conspiracy - much less any evidence of such - aside from the usual 4chan attempts at wind up, I cannot envisage any other scenario plus I refuse to elaborate more than I already have which is already too much, because even thinking about that now thankfully dead lower than a snake's belly creep is doing exactly what the scum wants. This is why I'll never post his name I have just about forgotten it and cannot suggest too strongly that others do the same. Its a fucked up world when mass murderers seek 'fame' yeah, but that is even more reason to anonymise such scum.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 8, 2017 10:55:50 PM | 70

It's interesting that his brother didn't know he was a licensed hunter. It's unusual that we don't know whether he was taking target practice leading up to the event like the San Bernardino shooters. There appeared to be other preparations. On the other hand, he was shooting into massive densely packed crowds.

He used hotel staff shift changes over 3 days to bring in roughly 10 rifles.

He seemed to have loaded up with a lot of things, including explosives, that he may or may not have intended to use. This is similar to the James Wesley Howell who was arrested on the way to a gay pride parade with car loaded with ammo, weapons, and explosives. He may or may not have had a plan, but he had the personality to go off with these toys.

Posted by: Les | Oct 8, 2017 11:09:22 PM | 71

We haven't talked much about is Trump's push for US citizens to be more patriotic. IMO USA is already a highly militaristic society with military displays at virtually all public events and a militarized police force.

FoxNews is now using the Las Vegas attack to disparage athletes that kneel.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 11:09:39 PM | 72

Anonymous @58:

There is also a YouTube video where Paddock's brother comes dangerously close to calling his brother an ARMS DEALER but then cuts himself off in mid-sentence.
No, he was saying that his brother was independent-minded and highly capable and then added: "Steve was an ar..." but then stopped himself and explained that what he was about to say would disparage one of the armed forces.

What he was likely going to say was that Steve as "an army of one." This is a colloquial expression that would be a common way to categorize a highly capable and determined individual in USA.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 8, 2017 11:47:20 PM | 73

When I was counting cards at blackjack decades ago, doing so actually gave a slight edge on the house with perfect play. That was in AC though, which tended to have less shoes in a deck, plus better rules such as split/double on anything, etc. At the time Vegas had worse factors so maybe not an edge. As you say, video poker does (or did) give a slight advantage. But a lot of that IIRC was due to large progressive jackpots, so only on average return (meaning you'd have to play for many several hundred years to be even or ahead on the odds, hoping you'd finally hit that jackpot). But--even without progressives I think some certain, standard high machine payoffs did give advantage without requiring quite so much play.

As for this shooting, haven't paid much attention, don't watch the MSM. Don't really care, I find mass-shootings a) personally boring, and b) socially hysterical. About as many people die from drunk driving here a day, every day. And we don't see calls for a massive surrender of our rights or entrapping brain-addled Muslims/I mean alcoholics as a response. Nor have we spent $2 trillion in the past 16 years trying to cure cancer. It's just a bunch of hoopla that feeds the war and surveillance and rah-rah machine. Much like 9/11. No matter whether big false flag or just regular Islamic terrorism, in a sane society it shouldn't have had even 1% of the response. Hype and concern that massively outweighs threat is incredibly counterproductive and incredibly dangerous to free societies. And to silly things like social welfare as opposed to military spending.

Posted by: Soft Asylum | Oct 8, 2017 11:52:46 PM | 74

Gee, maybe he thought the concert goers were The Infected and needed to be eradicated? That's as good a hypothesis as any other I've seen, apparently.

But what did the room service people see?

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 9, 2017 12:19:19 AM | 75

As you can see in this photo Paddock was apparently standing in front of the note he wrote / had written when he killed himself.

Unlikely that he was kneeling, given the outstretched legs.

They tell us that the note was meaningless. He only wrote elevation and distance on it. But the only reason to kill himself standing in front of the note would be if he wrote the note and then immediately killed himself.

Wouldn't he have written the note while seated? And wouldn't he write distance and elevation BEFORE he started shooting (not just before killing himself).

Whether writing the note or preparing to suicide himself, why not sit in a chair (there is one half-a-step away!) during the last moments of his life?

That's why I would do. And I can't imagine anyone standing - especially when a chair is readily available.

And, if you're standing when you suicide yourself, how does a gun manage to get over your leg?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 9, 2017 12:45:33 AM | 76

The whole story being built around Stephen Paddock is hardly credible. Details are being tacked on in a series of after-thoughts.

Could very well be that Paddock was a victim of identity theft, the intent on the part of those who stole his identity that he be a patsy to lead the police on a wild goose chase so that the real killer or killers could escape. His death, the desperate attempt to smear him as the killer and the choice of victims (country music fans) could in combination constitute a message in itself - we need to work out what to read in it.

Posted by: Jen | Oct 9, 2017 1:29:37 AM | 77

What if Paddock was a Code Pink/Pussy Riot Hillary supporter who hated deplorables and was previously seen in a NASA tee shirt holding a anti-Trump sign? If true, how could the FBI release the facts and not spark a civil war by releasing the information. Then again, the mass monument destruction riots planned for tomorrow might just do the trick.

Stay safe as the purple revolution may be coming your way...

Posted by: Krollchem | Oct 9, 2017 1:44:56 AM | 78

It is a sad subject. But the Putin angle is rather hilarious. Expect the Congress to form a committe to look into it. Maxine Waters is probably salivating for such.

Posted by: Steve | Oct 9, 2017 1:56:41 AM | 79

Just because you don't know what happened, doesn't mean it was a false flag operation. Learn to live with ambiguity and uncertainty. Filling in the blanks with elaborate, or not so elaborate, fantasies that "explain" events like this one is a sign of mental instability. Just saying.

Posted by: Temporarily Sane | Oct 9, 2017 2:24:11 AM | 80

If I put my old debate judge hat on, the failed/counter firearm sale turned into a geo-political statement angle fits more of the optics so far.

As I write this I think about reading recently, as we are about to be able to find out the "real" story behind the JFK killing, that the whole Lee Harvey Oswald file of those records is missing.

I sure hope the fat lady sings on the elimination of private finance soon so we can eliminate the incentives for such perfidy.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 9, 2017 2:38:34 AM | 81

I have seen the argument put forward that Paddock must be a leftist because he shot up a country music concert and country music fans are by definition good, patriotic Americans. At least ever since the great Dixie Chicks Purge of 2003...

Posted by: ralphieboy | Oct 9, 2017 3:00:11 AM | 82

Jack rabbit.

A good observation about the gun over the leg if the guy had shot himself standing up. I had noticed that myself when seeing the photo a few days ago. Was waiting to see if anyone else had.

Also the note seems placed under the ash tray to hold it, so it wouldn't blow away. Seems more consistent with a suicide note that was intended to be read than some calculations that had been completed and were no longer needed.

Only clear facts that can be discerned by us are the two broken windows in the two hotel rooms. This indicates the possibility of two shooters. Can't see why one shooter would need two windows in two adjascent rooms.

The apparent fact that Paddock sued a hotel/casino for slipping on a wet floor a few years ago, and lost, may suggest he was easy to take offense, so possibly something had happened recently that is being covered up that may have made him determined to embarrass the Mandalay or LV in this way.

Perhaps we can find other independent facts that are not u-tube witnesses or even official sources. A list of those might be useful

Posted by: Blue | Oct 9, 2017 3:48:21 AM | 83

Disappointed at how far the 'false flag' angle is going on this one, within the alt right/alternate media community. Despite there being no evidence whatsoever. For instance the idea that there were multiple shooters has been peddled so much that it happened, it's not considered 'fact', as if repeating it over and over proves anything.

This is detrimental to real journalism that the likes of Chris Bollyn does on real false flags, like 9/11.

It's sad to see this turn into another Sandy Hook, insane BS with no proof.

Posted by: Depth Charge | Oct 9, 2017 4:52:34 AM | 84

Re: Posted by: Richard | Oct 8, 2017 5:20:57 PM | 33

Congressman Trey Gowdy is probably the most intelligent and honest men in Congress. I guess you must know all the other idiots.

Trey Gowdy? You mean the guy who ran all the Benghazi hearings that resulted in exactly NOTHING. ZIP. ZERO. NADA.

And where was the expose in the Benghazi hearings (run by the same hero of yours Trey Gowdy) about the gun running from Benghazi to Turkey into Syria to the ISIS/Al-Qaeda CIA/Mossad/MI5 supported rebels?

Where was Gowdy's expose of this gun running ratline? Ala 'Fast & Furious' - gun-running by FBI/CIA into Mexico.

Similar play via Benghazi into the hands of Syrian Islamic crazies.

Tell me again how Gowdy exposed this crime and resulted in Clinton & McCain et al being locked up for supporting and funding terrorism via the Benghazi ratline.

Tell me again about that.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 9, 2017 5:07:42 AM | 85

...one of the things that hasn't been particularly well publicised ... is that many of the injured rather than the dead, were trampled in the rush to escape the shooter hence the lack of blood on many hospital admissions, trampling rarely involved penetration and penetration is a pre requisite for copious bleeding.
...
Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 8, 2017 6:47:56 PM | 50

A very relevant observation.
Lethal sports crowd panic events are mostly localised, near something visible. A sniper attack would tend to panic the entire audience simultaneously.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 9, 2017 5:29:52 AM | 86

Julian says:

Trey Gowdy? You mean the guy who ran all the Benghazi hearings that resulted in exactly NOTHING. ZIP. ZERO. NADA

yeah, that one. every once in a while they gotta roll out an 'honest' politician to remind all the rubes that the system is functional, that they really mean business, that come hell or high water this time they're really gonna take a bite out of crime...

but this scanty gaggle of 'honest' politicians rings so hollow, like i've said before, chiming like tokens in someone's pocket.

Posted by: john | Oct 9, 2017 5:38:48 AM | 87

I forget the exact numbers, but something like 50 dead a 500 injured. All trampled? So who were the shooters or shooter shooting at?

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 9, 2017 5:39:11 AM | 88

A 4-500 meters range and a hundred meters up firing on full auto into a dense crowd that covers a large area, every bullet will cause one or two casualties. The supposed shooter suposedley had a large collection of assult rifles over a number of years. A gun nut. He would know how to drop a magazine of bullets in a fifty or hundred meter circle. A piece of piss for anyone who has fired a few shot out of a gun. There are videos of the crowd when the firing is heard. There should be blood and guts everywhere. There is none on social media.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 9, 2017 5:47:50 AM | 89

Oh and the note tha apparently according ? was to calculate range what a load of shit. If the shooter wasd firing full auto he is not trying for a headshot. Simply guesstimate then adjust like you would a hose.

Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 9, 2017 6:01:21 AM | 90

@35: You took the right name, because what you're posting is completely contrary to established medical fact.

>>>Suicidal-homicidal is a pretty common psychosis.

No. Suicidal-homicidal is actually quite rare, in-the-wild. Most depressed, suicidal people have no interest in murdering others. Violent intentions and bouts of wild physical aggression are, however, a *known* and *proven* side-effect of anti-depressant and "anti-anxiety" medications. Valium is known to cause some perfectly peaceful, passive people to suddenly start attacking the people around them both verbally and physically. Prozac, too, was observed to incite otherwise peaceful but also suicidal people into violent acts against others.

Again, let me reiterate: the typical suicidal person is almost never inclined to harm others. That is a myth. Yes, there are murder-suicides, but generally those play out with the murder being perpetrated first in an act of rage, and then the suicide following once the realization sets in about what was just done, and/or what the consequences are likely going to be.


Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Oct 9, 2017 6:59:30 AM | 91

@55:

>>>Why kill your whole family, even if you're depressed? Where's the motive for that?

If a man sees himself as the primary breadwinner, believes that his wife and kids are incapable of achieving a measure of comfort and security after he's gone, and further believes that the world will be looking to curse them because their father "failed," then he will see the murder of his family as a mercy-killing. The suicide notes left behind by many couples indicate that precisely this motivates many of these murder-suicide episodes, oftentimes with the wife's full agreement.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Oct 9, 2017 7:12:55 AM | 92

Pacifica Advocate | Oct 9, 2017 7:12:55 AM | 92

Interesting; what little I do know, would tend to confirm what you've said.

Posted by: V. Arnold | Oct 9, 2017 7:26:36 AM | 93

The LV shooting is different from: a) encouraged / co-opted / entrapped ‘islamist’ terrorists (underwear bomber to Charlie Hebdo), b) the kind of stage managed ‘attack’ - emergency situation - involving actors, demonstrators, law enforcement, others, media, etc. (Boston bombings.. )

The b) type can veer between what is often called a ‘hoax’, i.e. it is a montage, a fiction, and incidents where quite some ppl are killed / grieviously injured, in a sort of modern enactment of a ‘reality’ on a media stage where actions are not merely duplicitious but ‘other’, i.e. so blurred as to be unrecognizable because of different motives, group-belonging, adherence, obedience, etc.

LV was a real massacre, shooting into a packed crowd. From looking at raw footage and stills, if anything the death count is too low, which is surely a rare take. It seems that the ‘multiple shooters’ scenario is very credible (see several posts above, sound analyses, etc.)

What believable aim can be cobbled up? For Paddock zero and I’m certain he had nothing to do with it, though he may have been in a role /function/ position to be a patsy. Either a planned one, lured, etc. (doesn’t seem very apt) or one found on-the-spot (better, remember shooting into concert for 10 mins only and 72 mins to breach of Paddock suite.) Prefer the second. (One can write that up easy, the frantic hunt for a culprit, some poss shady person, who is quickly killed, windows knocked out, etc.)

Imho, this massacre / attack was broader than the MSM informs (several shooters, attacks on other hotels, etc.) and is not directly related to the usual ‘terrorism’ scenarios but represents something else that was covered up with a ‘lone shooter’ narrative. (The MSM are trying to bury the horror already.)

The question is, what was the something else? Why and by whom, and why is the actor-subs. successful? (ISIS are the only ones who claimed authorship.) That is under the assumption that one is dealing with persons who do have a rational if evil aim… maybe not the case.

From hyping silly threats (shoe and underwear bombers) to covering up real ones - about 60 ppl shot dead hundreds wounded - at an regular venue like a concert...difference is too consequent to treat the same.

Posted by: Noirette | Oct 9, 2017 9:30:29 AM | 94

Shooting from 390 yards away. Four footbal fields. Not sure that qualifies as "fish in a barrel."

Posted by: JC | Oct 9, 2017 10:07:19 AM | 95

I've always liked the analyses done by AangIrfan blogger (although he's been gravely mistaken regarding Trump), very interesting angles, evidence being collected gradually so one needs to visit regularly to keep track.

Aangirfan: LAS VEGAS SHOOTING FALSE FLAG

And if you ask why a false flag - the answer is quite often the same: to introduce more police state "for our own security". Potential for some "special interests" to make really big bucks is enormous, let's have body scanners everywhere courtesy of RapingScan:

Getting Rich from the TSA Naked-Body Scanners


With all the commotion over the invasiveness of the naked-body scanners used by the United States Transportation Security Administration (TSA), one question that has been ignored is who is profiting from TSA’s use of the body scanners? Mark Hemingway and Tim Carney at The Examiner discovered the shameful answer: George Soros, Michael Chertoff, and a number of lobbyists.

Both Soros and Chertoff are profiting from the naked-body scanners by way of the company Rapiscan, whose contract is worth $173 million. Lobbyists for this company include Susan Carr, a former senior legislative aide to Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) who is coincidentally chairman of the Homeland Security Subcommittee...

And this is some very interesting conversation, including the statement:

"Vegas was onlyto stop Trump from what he's going to tell you"

4chan poster MegaAnon has a lot to say about what really went down in Las Vegas - It could have been much much worse

Posted by: PeacefulProsperity | Oct 9, 2017 10:19:04 AM | 96

For what it's worth MegaAnon 4chan comments on Las Vegas: Text version

Posted by: PeacefulProsperity | Oct 9, 2017 10:40:19 AM | 97

>>>Shooting from 390 yards away. Four footbal fields. Not sure that qualifies as "fish in a barrel."

All of this is just math, and some basic compensation.

Height of hotel floor("s") in meters = 3.9(s) + 11.7 + 3.9(s/20)

Distance to performance area (390m) can be gleaned from any detailed map.

That gives a hypotenuse of 415 meters, downwards. Bullets gain velocity downwards, so that's to the shooter's advantage.

This manual took me 30 seconds to find on a search engine (NOT Google). The URL is here: millettsights.com/downloads/ShootingUphillAndDownhill.pdf. It describes in detail the adjustments a shooter needs to make to accurately gauge a target when shooting from above.

The performance area had a maximum seating capacity of 25,000. The concert Paddock was shooting into had an audience of 20~22,000 (varying estimates). The audience area was almost to capacity.

All Paddock had to do was apply basic sighting that any entry-level private can do, hold the gun steady, and fire into an area that encompassed some 1/3rd of his visual field.

If you think that was difficult, then you're an idiot.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Oct 9, 2017 11:57:57 AM | 98

B. according to the mass murderer's brother in law, the killer had developed a system based upon regression analysis of vegas slot machines, that improved his odds to a few points ahead of the house.

@Debsisdead | Oct 8, 2017 6:47:56 PM | 50


Your post is so wrong on many levels.

Regression is about MEAN functions (think of them as arithmetic averages - the classical mean). They will not tell you how to improve “gaming odds” in the short term and would be very difficult to implement over the long run. In addition, there is simply no way of gather data on covariates that would effect the mean function - casinos would (and do) easily detect that.

Expected values are used to understand long run behaviors. For EVERY gambling game, they are negative! Casinos have every business and mathematical reason to keep games fair (a super-martingale), with a slightly negative bias (negative expected value or mean). That’s how they build billion dollar casinos in the desert.

Let’s take a closer look your “regression analysis” rubbish. Consider logistic regression, with the outcome as a binary random variable Y, Y is equal to 1 with probability p. Recall that the odds are defined as a ratio of p/(1-p). That is, a ratio of the probability for an event “success” to the compliment of the probability of an event “success”. Here, “success” would be winning at a game. Logistic regression is the relation of log-odds as a function of m predictors or factors:

log[p/(1-p)]=beta_0 +…+ beta_m*x_m

Note that true p is NEVER known. All we can do is estimate p, and this can be done using historical data. Again, casinos will notice you logging data, kick you out and ban you (may even beat some sense into you.) If you get p wrong, that could amplify your LOSSES.

Any kind of realistic application would require a constrained optimization of the logistic regression function to have a near zero mean function (log odds in this case). This in turn would down weight the predictors or factors towards zero (L_1 or L_2 regularization for the geeks out there. Hi fellow geeks!) If you didn’t do this (assuming you even have data), it would be easy to detect the winnings via surveillance and statistical analysis (watching the “hot” hand). And again, they might beat some sense into you or break your hot hand.)

So, in short, this “regression approach” to beating the casino is a bunch of baloney.

Slots have some of the *worst* odds of winning in ‘Vegas.

Money laundering is the *only* explanation that makes sense to this mathematical statistician.

Posted by: Variance Doc | Oct 9, 2017 1:25:28 PM | 99

Lots of new contributors aggressively pushing the official fairy tale.

Not that there isn't an immense amount of chaff amongst the off-script conjecture, no accident. Red herring fest.

I was reflecting today on the subject of evolving strategies in programs of narrative control in the developing internet world, and it occurred to me that it will ultimately fail for the simple reason that the volume of data available for autonomous navigation leads people to habits of learning about the world autonomously and forming their judgements autonomously. Contrast with the spoonfed passivity of the TV epoch. Thus, it won't matter how much discussion of key issues like this one are manipulated towards cryptocratic-approved consensus by troll armies or even censorship. The proactively thinking population general will simply filter out messages they intuit as bullshit, though they may play along, nodding and blinking to the official remonstrations of convenient 'thought leaders'.

The only way for them to reverse this trend is by huge curtailments in the quality and quantity of plain factual info available. E.g. It's not enough to control the 9/11 topic on Wikipedia, they'll need to entirely delete Wikipedia, or dumb it down to insignificance.

Today's conjecture, fwiw.

Posted by: Cursor | Oct 9, 2017 1:37:06 PM | 100

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