Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 30, 2016

Modi's Bank Transaction Tax May Lead To Larger Conflicts

The current Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, has a history of racism and can be described as a neo-fascist. A more pleasant label is Hindu nationalist but that essentially means the same.

It now turns out that Modis extremism in not confined to the nationalist bend but includes some crazy economic ideas.

Modi decided to demonetize the country from one day to another. Every bank note valued at over US$7 was taken out of circulation. The rather crazy idea behind this is to move all monetary transactions to some electronic money systems and to then tax each and every transaction. All other kind of taxes would be abolished.

Only a lunatic without any knowledge of actual economic issues can support such a move.

The predictable result of the sudden demonetization is a liquidity crunch. There suddenly is only half the amount of money in circulation than before. Bills can not be paid, salaries are withheld, services are unused because their is no money to pay for them. The government wants to move the people to open up bank accounts but the banking infrastructure in India is rudimentary, the systems running are old and the software inadequate to handle the masses. Mobs Lock Up Bankers as Pay Day Turns Pain Day in India is a current Bloomberg headline.

The protests have not reached their climax yet but expect some serious riots in India over the next weeks and months should Modi continue on this path. It will be even worse when, in a second step, the new tax system is introduced.

Taxing all transactions is digressive. The poor will end up up paying more than the rich as all kinds of property taxes and the like will end. Estimates say that the tax rate would have to be 4 to 6% on each monetary transfer to be able to eliminate all other taxes.

Manufacturing, which builds complex products from a number of pre-processed parts and inputs, will end up highly taxed. Each screw in a part that goes into a car will have been taxed when transferred from the steelmaker to the wholesale steel deal to the screw maker to the part manufacturer to the car manufacturer to the consumer. With several percents of taxes on each of these transaction this will end up as a very expensive car. There are products which easily include a dozen such stages or more.

"Sin taxes" on alcohol, gasoline and other socially or environmentally harmful stuff will be missing as regulatory instruments. Custom issues and double taxation agreements with other countries will be highly problematic.

The Indian bureaucracy is not the most capable in the world. The banking infrastructure, especially in the still mostly rural parts of India, is only sparse. It is practically impossible to have such a brutal, large conversion of the whole economy without major breakdowns.

The first real economic trouble will be noted soon. Liquidity crunches are usually followed by sharp drops in productivity and general economic activity. India until recently had a fast growing economy. It is very likely to now go into recession.

Taxes on a currency will lead to a shadow economy where people will used other means to pay, especially for small daily transfers. The new currency will probably be cigarettes or whatever can be bargained. The tax income will therefore likely be lower than estimated as the use of offcial money, then electronic money, in daily life will decline.

Modi was in favor of a transaction tax economy since at least 2013 though it did not play a role in his campaign and policy speeches. The people are unprepared for it and the large bumps that will come with its implementation.

My fear though is that Modi will do the usual nationalist / fascist trick when problems with the economy occur. He is unlikely to give up on his aims.  He will rather look for an enemy and accuse it of causing the problems. Divert the peoples attention by a war on - take your choice: Pakistan, China, Muslims in general, any local opposition or whatever. There will always be someone to blame.

So far Modi had a rather successful run as Premier. His tax project may well ruin that. Given his background his solution will likely be to seek a conflict. In a nuclear India with a nuclear arch-enemy Pakistan nearby that is some worrisome perspective.

Posted by b on November 30, 2016 at 02:29 PM | Permalink

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Technocrats love the idea of getting rid of cash, which people can control and possess without requiring a banker--and which they can hang onto if they wish, unlike the electronic funds in a bank account that can be hit with a 'bail in' as happened in Cyprus. This effort has failed spectacularly, but as b says, this doesn't mean Modi will stop. "We had to destroy the economy of the country to save it," or words to similar effect...

Posted by: WorldBLee | Nov 30, 2016 2:47:14 PM | 1

Interesting b, but, I must confess, this is way over my pay grade. We'll soon see where this leads India. You may be right about placing the blame elsewhere.

Blaming the passengers on the train for the train wreck, is in vogue these days.

Posted by: ben | Nov 30, 2016 2:49:03 PM | 2

Modi isnt exactly stupid, therefore there could be many factors at play we dont even know about.

Posted by: Harry | Nov 30, 2016 2:58:12 PM | 3

thanks b.. someone was discussing something like this very recently..i can't remember who... i do wonder what international banker types are profiting off this and who modi is catering to at this point. it is never the ordinary people!

we were in india in 1998.. the banking system - dealing with money - and everything around money appears upside down to an ordinary westerner - myself anyway.. and bureaucracy is way more intense in india, without a doubt.. maybe the plan is to cause some major pain for a short sighted goal.. all in all, it doesn't look good as you note..

Posted by: james | Nov 30, 2016 3:34:13 PM | 4

So (first sentence), Modi is a neo-fascist?
That same site about Trump:

The United States elected a fascist. A man who whipped up hate and xenophobia to shocking and unprecedented levels. The people surrounding and advising Donald Trump are the same people we have been warning about and exposing for years now. There was never a doubt that any Republican victory in the presidency would embolden this network of professional and career fear-mongers; Trump’s candidacy was worse than all of them.

This thread is for you to share your reflections and thoughts on the election of an American fascist.


http://www.loonwatch.com/2016/11/the-united-states-of-donald-trump/

Posted by: From The Hague | Nov 30, 2016 3:35:53 PM | 5

Interesting points raised by b. Sheikh Imran Hosein has been predicting the introduction of e-money, as an instrument of global control and oppression for a while now.
So much for the role of BRICS as a counter bloc to the American hegemony. India seems willing to be one of the first countries to adopt the e- money model and it would likely seize away the little monetary control people enjoy at present.
Its a really worrying development. Watch out for the rest of the cabal following suit.

Posted by: MumboJumbo | Nov 30, 2016 3:48:28 PM | 6

Such important decisions are made with clear intentions. I don't know what they are but here's a guess: Probably India is trying to cause a deflation in order to force the population to sell its gold. Why would India do this? Because otherwise the US might force them. To see if this could work one would need to check history - in the book 'Conjuring Hitler' the author Preparata claims that this is what Britain did in 1925 to refill their gold vaults.

I know it sounds crazy but at least it is an attempt to make sense of Modi's actions.

Posted by: pupij | Nov 30, 2016 4:02:27 PM | 7

This is a huge man-made disaster for India. After the US Civil War, there was $1.6 Billion in circulation. That was reduced by $1 Billion over the years. The lack of liquidity caused economic problems and/or aggravated any that came along until ... the Fed came along to save the day (/sarc).

I figure in this case a huge underground economy will result. That is what happens in many places in India with regards to electrical power as shown in the documentary Powerless.
http://powerless-film.com/
http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/films/powerless/
The ones who connect people illegally are considered Robin Hoods. Meanwhile their systems are overloaded, there are power ourtages, and the people fight the authorities.

So if we're anti-transaction-taxation, where are we on taxing Wall Street transactions?

Posted by: Curtis | Nov 30, 2016 4:20:09 PM | 8

investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-deep-states-attempt-to-suppress-indias-gold-demand/

Posted by: MistyAnn | Nov 30, 2016 4:30:41 PM | 9

@ MumboJumbo who wrote: "So much for the role of BRICS as a counter bloc to the American hegemony. "

I agree. Further to the point of the posting, thanks b, is that India epitomizes the class structure that is, IMO, an evolutionary dead end for humanity. As a species we can best advance/evolve from a broad base of our species and these sorts of enforced narrowing of the gene pool severly limit our ability to survive going forward.

That said, evolution spans time frames that most humans don't comprehend well and India has had its class system for centuries, making it look like it is a working model for others....like the global plutocrats and their private finance ownership.

It will be interesting to see, if I live that long, whether humanity will accept this evolutionary dead end or demand something better.

The ultimate question here is, should society organize itself to service the few at the top or our species in general?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 30, 2016 4:39:03 PM | 10

Modi as modern Manchurian Candidate? A pain-drug-hypnotized tool used to further already-agreed-upon plan for world domination by a superpower-group? Chaos can be a tool to enable takeover of any resistance.

Modi is chaos. Not an error. Not a mistake. Not an accident.

There is never just 1 superpower. That is a myth to distract attention away from truth. A dominating power of global scale is always a group/cooperative effort.

A single [nation] power will not scale to global proportion. Group cooperation is needed. Five-Eyes is an example. Central-Bank/Bank For Int'l Settlements is another. Fiat "money" in another. Atomic weapons capability is another. NATO is another. Artificial-Intelligence to enslave others is another.

Modi is lead-man for deliberate chaos. If you were looking for a workable way to neuter China, an India-China war might do. Or India-Pak-China war.

Then Russia would be effectively isolated for the final putsch, which would likely be an economic war using unlimited bribery as the overwhelming weapon. [Bribery penetrates any defense; money-sex-drugs, etc., with emphasis on the "etc.".]

End of disgusting speculation.

Posted by: chu teh | Nov 30, 2016 4:51:34 PM | 11

Aren't we witnessing a huge emerging market for Bitcoin and other independent currencies?

Posted by: Michal | Nov 30, 2016 4:55:15 PM | 12

I recently read somewhere (can't remember where) that
Bill Gates is happy to help out and would make this de-monetization a priority for his minions in India. Wow!

Posted by: R. Shackelford | Nov 30, 2016 5:01:54 PM | 13

Sounds loony, I agree. It may be that what Modi is trying to get at is a common problem with countries like India, but many others outside the western world. That is that a large part of the economy operates outside the tax system. Things are done in cash. I don't know anything about the Indian tax system. Peasants may be taxed on their land, but what about the rest of their activity? VAT doesn't work because nobody will pay over the dues. In one country I know, Jordan, the main government revenues are through customs duties, but then they import a lot. This must be an attempt to tie down transactions so that they can be taxed, to replace VAT (in Britain) or TVA (in France), or sales tax in the States, (or what in Germany?). 4-6% is not much compared to VAT in Europe.

Posted by: Laguerre | Nov 30, 2016 5:02:19 PM | 14

b, thank you for covering the extraordinarily important topic of the move towards cashless.

INDIA's official reason for reducing the use of cash: "corruption" (citizens' free trade in the marketplace, avoiding taxes, regulation, etc.) The large bills were probably disproportionately used for buying gold & silver jewelry, which is the family's nestegg.

AUSTRALIA: Citibank no longer accepts currency-- as of a few days ago. Of course people can still withdraw money using the ATMs-- for how much longer?

SWEDEN: Half the banks don't accept cash. Sweden plans to be cashless in a few years.

URUGUAY has begun to take steps in the direction of cashless, and Argentina & Denmark are talking about it.

Another "benefit" of getting rid of large denominations is that it's more difficult (bulky) to keep money outside the banking system.

The idea that we will somehow be set free by the (planned) collapse of the dollar is futile. The plan has always been a global currency (SDR probably)) for the big traders, and digital for the masses.

Only our own political platform of what WE WANT with massive support will save us. Not the hints dropped by some snivelling little liar every 4 years, nor other heads of state who also support the international institutions which comprise the NWO.

Posted by: Penelope | Nov 30, 2016 5:20:46 PM | 15

File under FWIW. I have friends from India, and I asked them about this. I cannot verify, but I was told that, Number One, allegedly Modi introduced the idea of getting rid of the 500Rupee & 1000Rupee notes possibly two years ago (again: unverified). Allegedly, Modi said: bring in your notes; we won't question how you got them; we'll give you back 60% and keep 40% as a tax/fee. Apparently, some people did this. This more recent effort in November was allegedly a culmination of a one to two year program, whereby, Modi now said: Ok bring in your money, and it's split 50-50 between you and the govt. Now, supposedly, the split is 60% for the govt & 40% for the citizen who brings it in.

My friends claim that it's well known in India (and I have heard this rumor before, but I cannot substantiate it) that some rather huge amount of Indian currency is alleged to be counterfeit. The prevailing "story" is that much of it is generated by "terrorists" (this usually means Pakistani's). Supposedly some of Modi's motivation was to get rid of the counterfeit money. I simply don't know.

My friends acknowledged, however, that a substantial amount of transactions - of all sorts, from very tiny to really big - are conducted in cash. Of course, most of the really poor in India (a huge amount of people) do not have bank accounts or credit cards and really can only conduct their lives in cash. How this affects them is another story, but it's gotta hurt. My friends, while having sympathy for the poor, acknowledged that a lot of rich people simply conduct most of their businesses, plus stuff like buying and selling properties, in cash to avoid taxation. They told me stories of people showing up with giant crates (their words) of rupees to buy, say, a house for cash. So they see some of Modi's motivation as somewhat reasonable - a means to an end.

My friends are living in the USA right now, so they're not dealing with it. I asked how it's going for their families back in India, but I didn't get a clear answer.

Hard to say what Modi's primary motivation is. I do feel that attempting to force citizens to pay legitimate taxes is probably one of them. But dragooning the poor to somehow have bank accounts and credit cards is just ridiculous.

I guess we'll see how this plays out. Does seem like one of the first shots across the bow in the E-money only battle.

Posted by: RUKidding | Nov 30, 2016 5:26:00 PM | 16

The rich Indians will not only be taxed less because of Modi's new taxing system, they will also evade any taxes by doing payments with gold or other precious metals.

Posted by: Dinky | Nov 30, 2016 5:28:08 PM | 17

Just discovered Corbett Report has a rundown on the progress of 22 countries + Hong Kong in going Cashless https://www.corbettreport.com/the-war-on-cash-a-country-by-country-guide/

Posted by: Penelope | Nov 30, 2016 5:40:26 PM | 18

There are rumours of a ban on gold imports too. It's caused quite a sell off in the bullion market.

Posted by: dh | Nov 30, 2016 5:41:01 PM | 19

Nothing is eaten as hot as it is cooked. (German saying)

Calm down, this is not half the revolution it seems at first glance.

a. There are new 2000 and 500 Rp notes, which will do nicely for everyday transactions, esp. of the lower and middle class.
b. They certainly don't want their industry to suffer disadvantages, so as with VAT the supply-chain transactions will not be taxed.
c. This could indeed stabilize financial markets and ensure that only 'useful' transactions are executed, which make sense economically.

It's a first step towards abolishing cash - which has its good and bad sides, esp. if you consider the possibility of introducing negative interest rates and the efficiency gains which allow for the downsizing of the unproductive banking sector.

If things go wrong however, I agree the govt will very probably resort to racism/ nationalism/ fascism and scapegoating of whoever.

Posted by: smuks | Nov 30, 2016 5:48:13 PM | 20

re 19. Don't really agree. 2000 Rp notes and below continue to exist, because that's where the poor in India live. The aim must be to tax those who live over that level. As for the super-rich, no doubt they have ways around the problem.

Posted by: Laguerre | Nov 30, 2016 6:11:58 PM | 21

Zerohedge had some good commentary on this subject about a week ago... I see it as a policy Modi was convinced to follow (He has no economic background or depth) in an attempt to discredit him and his larger foreign policy stance. Each of the BRICS has been the subject of recurrent financial attacks over the last 4 years. They tend to follow a stance or policy that is either pro-Asian or one that moves them away from Western policies - especially for India in the context of military contracts and allegiances..

The key will be to watch who proposed replacements will be when Modi takes the hit for this disastrous policy. His only hope is to scapegoat on of his ministers and back down from this insane policy in the next week.

Posted by: les7 | Nov 30, 2016 6:12:48 PM | 22

In the absence of cash, I many other things will be monetized. Poaching, especially of endangered species, will likely increase. So long tigers.

Posted by: NoOneYouKnow | Nov 30, 2016 6:28:00 PM | 23

Naked Capitalism has had two articles on this demonitization plan of Morsi. They pointed out that 85% of Indian currency by value was in those two notes. It would take 6 months to just print the needed notes with lower valued notes to restore circulated currency. The second point was that 60% of the Indian people do not use any form of electronic money nor do they have bank accounts. They exist entirely in a paper cash economic world.

What could go wrong?

Posted by: ToivoS | Nov 30, 2016 6:36:20 PM | 24

@1 wbl, 'Technocrats love the idea of getting rid of cash, which people can control and possess without requiring a banker-- ...'

Absolutely. Bankers will then possess and control 'the money' without recourse to the people.

@6 mumbojumbo, 'So much for the role of BRICS as a counter bloc to the American hegemony. ... Watch out for the rest of the cabal following suit.'

Right again, seems to me, especially with respect to the 'rest of the cabal'.

@9 psycho, 'I agree [with mj @6]. Further to the point of the posting, thanks b, is that India epitomizes the class structure that is, IMO, an evolutionary dead end for humanity.'

I agree with both of you, and with wbl first and foremost. Note that Thailand is right next to India on the inequality scale.

share of total wealth of richest 1% in selected countries

  Russia 74.5%
  India 58.4%
  Thailand 58.0%
  Indonesia 49.3%
  Brazil 47.9%
  China 43.8%
  USA 42.1%
  South Africa 41.9%
  Mexico 38.2%

b, 'Taxing all transactions is regressive. The poor will end up up paying more than the rich as all kinds of property taxes and the like will end.'

This is the way it has always been, in India especially. And will be until political power and economic power are separated.

Note as well that it is the bank's that will be 'required' to do the taxing. The underlying struggle with financialization is between governments and banks for taxing the world's poor. The financiers are winning. Taxes keep shrinking - austerity - and financial fees and interest keep rising.

No need to worry about the lack of 'financial expertise' in India, the TNC banks will ride in to the 'rescue'.

Posted by: jfl | Nov 30, 2016 6:49:14 PM | 25

@24 the Credit Suisse's The Global Wealth Report 2016, itself.

Posted by: jfl | Nov 30, 2016 6:53:49 PM | 26

re R. Shackelford | Nov 30, 2016 5:01:54 PM | 12

This is a tv commercial for a Microsoft-powered banking product designed to net in the rural regions of India. I'd speculate that these things are connected - prossibly along with the google/fb moves to bring the interwebs to everyone, i.e. to "catch them". Loose end: the exploded rocket which should have carried a first fb-owned satellite into orbit. (Could this actually be done with a sniper rifle?)

For more on rural India, I recommend P. Sainath.

Posted by: persiflo | Nov 30, 2016 7:00:14 PM | 27

well if the imf likes it, i would think that is a discouraging sign!

this from the daily press briefings out of washington dc. see this Link if you want more..

"QUESTION: There was a wakeup call and a surgical strike by Prime Minister Modi against black market money or black money in India, and that was called for the terrorists and black-marketers and people who didn’t pay taxes and also hiding or doing business under the table. And he was praised by the IMF, saying that any country doing business – huge business – under the table cannot progress, and we are with India as far as this. And I’ve been saying for 25 years against corruption by the politicians in India and also black market money. So any U.S. --

MR TONER: You were a voice in the wilderness then. Yeah.

QUESTION: (Laughter.) Thank you, sir. Any U.S. impact as far as this blocking 500 rupees and 1,000 rupees? And because there is --

MR TONER: Sure.

QUESTION: -- chaos in India, but mostly – 92 percent – Indians are supporting Prime Minister Modi.

MR TONER: Well, you’re right, and you’re right that this recent action followed on a series of steps that the Modi government took over the past two years to reduce black market money, and I think it also included a four-month amnesty for tax evaders in India, which resulted in I think the disclosure or declaration of billions of dollars in hidden assets. This was an action – I’m talking about the discontinuance of the 500 and 1,000 rupee notes – designed to target illicit cash proceeds from corruption and tax dodging.

And with respect to your question about the impact on American citizens, we got this question I think the day that this was announced. And indeed, as it was an inconvenience for many Indians, it was an inconvenience for Americans who were also there, and we actually put out a statement through our U.S. embassy to American citizens in India about the changes. Again, this was, we believe, an important and necessary step to crack down on this – illegal actions or illicit actions. American citizens who are working and living in India I think have the proper information now to exchange those notes or to get new notes, and it’s a little bit of an adjustment, just as it was an inconvenience, I’m sure, for many Indians, but I think a necessary one to address the corruption.

QUESTION: Is the U.S. embassy providing any help to American citizens there if they are stuck with – in these long lines and all that?

Posted by: james | Nov 30, 2016 7:00:26 PM | 28

It's a curious fact of Indian economic history that there have always been super-rich, when you wouldn't have thought it justified. Rajahs weigh themselves in jewels, or gold. How did they manage to arrogate such resources to themselves? Agricultural production was adequate, but not exceptional. How did they manage to get everything in their hands. That will have something to to tell us about the present problem.

Posted by: Laguerre | Nov 30, 2016 7:02:53 PM | 29

refreshing to read about something other than the state-sides political quagmire .

Posted by: la | Nov 30, 2016 7:12:29 PM | 30

@Laguerre 20
Erm, actually I wrote pretty much the same. Whether or not the super-rich find ways around it depends on its implementation, it could easily be avoided if there's political will.

@persiflo 26
I agree, and was thinking of writing the same about mobile e-finance which is really taking off in Africa right now. They're ahead of us in some ways...as is China of course, by 10-15 years.
(though I don't think the rocket explosion has anything to do with it.)

Western countries have a powerful 'old' economy which is blocking any progress, like banking, oil & coal, car makers, agro-business...less 'developed' countries have less vested interests holding them back.

Posted by: smuks | Nov 30, 2016 7:13:41 PM | 31

Remember all of this based on computer security. One Romanian hacker and it all falls down like the WTC. Or maybe even Skynet activates.

Posted by: blues | Nov 30, 2016 7:24:10 PM | 32

I suppose the idea is to move India towards a cashless society with a guaranteed basic income for all (that would eliminate pensions for various categories such as aged pensioners, widows and others) and to streamline the country's taxation regime to eliminate other taxes such as income tax and corporate tax, and indirect taxes. But as MoA says, a BTT is bound to penalise poor people and others who don't routinely deal in large currency transactions.

A cashless society with a guaranteed basic income for everyone would be easier to administer and privatise. Governments could sell off all social services to the highest bidders. Suppliers of now-privatised services would act as tax collectors for governments. In addition, suppliers could add their own mark-ups on the prices of goods and services to cover the costs of collecting the BTT.

As for part of Smuks' comment @ 19:

"... This could indeed stabilize financial markets and ensure that only 'useful' transactions are executed, which make sense economically ..."

I fail to see how a BTT would have any stabilising effect on financial markets since the tax would be levied on all purchases on goods and services, outside sharemarkets. What are "useful" transactions: are these transactions needed to sustain life and enrich it or are these transactions above certain amounts that only the very wealthy can engage in?

A Tobin tax on share transactions would stabilise financial markets by changing investor behaviour and directing it away from casino gambling transactions but the same can't be said for a BTT.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 30, 2016 7:31:01 PM | 33

@Laguerre 28
Very simple: They had hundreds of thousands working for them. Being 'rich' by definition means appropriating the fruit of other people's labour.

@RUKidding 15
Interesting, thanks. Sounds plausible that getting rid of counterfeits would be part of the motivation, coming from Pakistan...quite possible. But as long as there's still banknotes for smaller transactions, the poor won't need credit cards. Can you imagine buying 20 cents of groceries in the market with Visa?

Posted by: smuks | Nov 30, 2016 7:32:23 PM | 34

3

Like you, I'm stunned that b (or his minions) wrote: "Only a lunatic without any knowledge of actual economic issues can support such a move."

Modi knows EXACTLY what he's doing. He was ELECTED to do this, to complete the privatization of India for Globalists and the Crown.

His first act was to take the gold out of circulation by offering fiat script 'gold bonds' in return for the tons and tons of 24k gold jewelry that Indian families rely on for a store of value and personal wealth. They hoped for paper liquidity, but Modi wanted their bullion.

He's melted it down and just dumped it on the market before Thanksgiving, in return for UK Pound Sterling. You saw AU crash and £ soar. That's coin of the Queen, the Royals. Then just as soon as he bought into the Crown, he outlawed high-value cash, so the 'gold bonds' are now WORTHLESS, they can only be traded for bank credits and taxes, not for cash-without-pawn-shop-bite, not for the reason all those gulled folks gave up their 24k gold: liquidity.

He's taken a huge billion-person trade in 24k gold, and turned it into a 1's and 0's private tax machine His next move will be to use those Bs of £s to underwrite 100Bs of rupees in junk bonds then start buying up India's infrastructure, prime ag lands, hardwood forests and water resources. He's also jacking up income taxes to go after the outsource Indian service centers and programming mills economy, educated Indians who make far, far more income than the rural population, and they have nowhere to go. He's got all their outsourcing wealth in national banks, and they can't cash it out to flee. They're trapped like sheep.

Game, match, century~!

Did you think Maidan was a one-off, b? Did you think the junk bond default scam of the Israeli junta coup in Kiev was about nationalism? Did you forget about IMF-WB-Kerry?

KIEV WAS THE BETA TEST!

The rest of the book ... it's a cook book!!

Posted by: chipnik | Nov 30, 2016 7:35:49 PM | 35

Laguerre @28,
'How did they manage ...?'
Religion and the brutal enforcement of the caste system.
The Brahmins would just take everything away from the wives of lower caste men who died, then toss them onto a fire to join hubby in the great beyond.
One more example of the evil in all religions.
At least the brits did something right when they banned suttee.

On a lighter note, the PTB would have a hard time getting rid of cash in the US - all the right wing xians would start screaming about the mark of the beast!

Posted by: sillybill | Nov 30, 2016 7:36:55 PM | 36

There are many reasons why Modi did this they are economic but most importantly political.

In India what we call bribes or tax evasion is called a cultural norm, to pay certain money under the table, officially lowering the translation prices which were taxable before as well. It happens in the US often with sales of old used cars for cash declaring half or 1/3 of true price to lower the tax.

Also in the US common is a excise tax paid (or rather avoided) by anyone reselling the stuff on which one did not pay sale tax in the state with a sale tax, clearly seen in the internet sales.

But this move is political to appease global financial oligarchy and reduce common bribery and replacing it with bribery in highest echelon of ruling elite.

It is foremost aimed to against 250 millions small shops and businesses that opeperate virtually tax free but are politically organized by for example organizing 50 millions participant strike against Wallmart few years ago.

Modi is a nationalism strong man with full support of the west to shackle India economically and politically and that is seen in Kashmir and his aggressive attitude to Maoist guerrillas as he consolidates power while negotiate Indian peoples enslavement deal by globalists.

Which way he goes about eradicating cash as impossible to tax and control and in the process depresses Indian economy, he may as well eradicate fiat money at all in paper or electronic form and move people to gold to replace it or will force to at least partially abandon money based exchange markets, returning India back hundreds of years to local money-less markets.

Which may not be that bad thing. Humans lived for countless millennia without Money:

https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/plutus-and-the-myth-of-money/


Posted by: Kalen | Nov 30, 2016 7:49:32 PM | 37

I have read the Wikipedia history of Narendra Modi and suggest others do as well.

One can argue that he has brought significant "economic progress" to India but it has been at the cost of humanistic and environmental issues.

Just what is the measure of human "progress"? Is it the ability to buy stuff as commenter dahoit has said Cubans are Jonesing for? In India, Modi is building toilets for all and making people use them...but is that progress? Is economic growth an end in itself? I think the people that own finance would tell you it is.....to keep them in control if for no other reason.

Maybe it is humanities destiny to abuse our world to put lipstick on pigs until we hit the environmental wall of extinction but I have always hoped for a less hubristic and more pluralistic evolution of our species with the Cosmos. PavewayIV wrote a while back that humans 500 years from now would laugh at our current thoughts but I now doubt that there is a snowballs chance in hades our species will last that long......that said, the Trumpian pick for Treasury has told the Street that he is thinking about pushing for 50 and 100 year bonds.......think about that......one comment I read mentioned that a 100 year bond bought in 1916 would be worth about 3% of its nominal value today. But hey, Trump is nothing if not a great salesman for ongoing private finance.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 30, 2016 8:13:15 PM | 38

as far as diversions go, india and pakistan are already racking up casualties in and around kashmir. again. odd how two insane nuclear countries having almost daily skirmishes gets zero mention in the MSM.

tangential but also notable: supposed "progressive" hero of the moment tulsi gabbard is herself a bit of a hindu extremist with a sunny view of modi and a pronounced hatred of muslims. odd.

http://www.alternet.org/civil-liberties/curious-islamophobic-politics-dem-congressmember-tulsi-gabbard

Posted by: the pair | Nov 30, 2016 8:15:31 PM | 39

There has never been a reduction in the money supply without a reduction in the overall economy and there has never been a depression that was not accompanied without a large reduction in the money supply. Unless the people of India come up with a black market substitute form of universal exchange- money, they are in for a large decline in the Indian economy. Taxation, or sucking money from the private economy by government, will only exacerbate the process and problem. As India is largely a self contained economy this should not have too great an effect on the rest of the world economically, politically ?, but will lower the demand for gold-silver as the Indian people's insatiable taste for precious metals begins drying up. Perhaps the estimated 20,000 tons of gold the Indian people possess privately will begin to circulate as money? This as the Indian people, like the Chinese, have never fully trusted government created money.

Posted by: BRF | Nov 30, 2016 8:19:34 PM | 40

HOARDING; I noticed in a previous link the mention of the problem of hoarding currency and how various monetary systems might address it.

It's a mistake to fall for the establishment's bandwagon that it is desirable to prevent people's "hoarding" by charging interest on their unspent money, etc. May I point out that another word for hoarding is "saving"-- saving for retirement, or a career change, or a home, or to start a business, or a car, or a child's education, or a vacation, or just a rainy day. If one is not permitted to save, or requires permission to do so, then his scope of action and planning is severely circumscribed-- and he is utterly dependent on the State. Saving is the means by which individuals and civilizations progress. A person who may not hold, independent from the State, negotiable wealth is reduced to infancy. It changes everything.

Posted by: Penelope | Nov 30, 2016 8:53:08 PM | 41

Chipnik @ 34. Bravo! Masterful.

Posted by: Penelope | Nov 30, 2016 8:53:54 PM | 42

@ Penelope who wrote about hoarding = saving

You need to understand that in the new world savers are suppose to invest that extra money so those that make decisions about what development investments should exist at risk can do so on your nickel and not put theirs in potential jeopardy.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 30, 2016 9:05:25 PM | 43

Re: Posted by: les7 | Nov 30, 2016 6:12:48 PM | 21

You have to be kidding. You think the Indians would allow themselves to get played so easily?

Hahaha - as if.

Obama and his team are a bunch of Muppets - remember, they play checkers while their opponents - the BRICS play chess.

Isn't that what we've been told for a number of years now?

Posted by: Julian | Nov 30, 2016 9:18:53 PM | 44

42

From Zero Hedge:

"Demonetization has been primarily done due to 2 reasons:

1. To consolidate power and muscle out entire opposition in one go in order to win the critical largest state of 200m electorate - UP.

2. Banks were insolvent and bad loans have risen to 11.2% of assets and are at highest levels in 11 years while Govt has said they simply cannot inject more capital and capital raising bonds have failed to get issued and mergers have halted.

USD 5bn of FII's has exited in just 18 days post demonetization.

*USD 34bn* of Non Resident Indian funds had to exit before 2 Dec which came into India in Sept-Dec 2013 when Indian Rupee had plunged to INR 69 to 1 USD and Gov. Rajan was brought in (From Chicago Univ) to control the mess. He asked Non resident Indians to invest in India in USD instead of INR with half the cost of hedging absorbed by the Reserve Bank.

All of this money being USD 34bn was leveraged hence had to exit India before 2 Dec 2016. This turned a bad loan situation combined with a USD 34bn exit of deposits with lower interest rates a noose around the neck of the Govt who have no other solution except doubling of interest rates or such insane moves in order to prevent a banking collapse.

In short, insolvency of banks and Govt along with elections were the two main factors for this insanely crazy move. All other justifications of patriotism or removing terrorism or digitalization or whatever have been formed post the decision in order to appease the illiterate Indians."

This prolly explains Modi's Melt the Jewelry for Fiat Script Gold Bonds gambit, and why, when he crunched the numbers on that $34bn repayment by Friday, he dumped the bullion into London and took Pounds Sterling out to the Isle of Mann, or maybe his new palace in Dubai.

What if he did? What if he's starving opposition for the elections, and already hedged by looting the Treasury and lining his party leaders' pockets with the Coin of the Queen? What if the London bankers promise them 'your investment is 100% liquid' if they moved the bullion to London, then to NYC?

Ha,ha,ha,ha, wouldn't that be a SKETCH!?, if all the expatriate Indians living in the US who have DECIMATED US high-tech employment, USAryans (myself included) forced to train their Indian replacement, then dumped like yesterday's news, if all those Indian scabs got burnt by Modi for their $34bn, and, AND, he burned the rest of the population for their 24k gold!?

Don't say it hasn't been done before, that's exactly what happened in Kiev.

Posted by: chipnik | Nov 30, 2016 9:42:15 PM | 45

Penelope,
You are exactly right. They're attempting to turn an age old virtue into an offense against your fellow citizens and the state, thus entitling them to punish the 'hoarder' with a fine.

Posted by: sillybill | Nov 30, 2016 9:47:51 PM | 46

I have a hard time believing that Modi's advisors could recommend a tax on all monetary transactions. If supply chain transactions are taxed, this will lead to massive vertical integration initially to avoid the extra tax payments at each step of the manufacturing chain. As more and more production becomes vertically integrated, pricing information is lost and resources are misallocated.

This is the problem that Soviet economic planners faced. They were able to perform rudimentary calculations by getting their hands on US and European price lists, but without an actual market in goods and a working price system, it is impossible to know if it is actually worth the expenditure of capital to produce a particular product or component of a product in a particular location with a particular set of inputs. You end up with an excess of nails and not enough hammers, or in the case of a vertically integrated company, you may end up "paying" (expending labor and capital) much more for an in-company produced product that could have been purchased on the national or international market at a substantial discount had the transaction tax not interfered with the structure of production.

This can not help but make Indian products more inferior and more expensive than they would be without the foolhardy intervention of the technocrats. This in turn will make Indians less wealthy on average than they would have been under the status quo ante.

If there is a per-transaction tax, and the technocrats have even a basic understanding of real economics, I assume that the government will institute some form of voucher or exemption for supply chain transactions, resulting in more of a VAT / sales tax regime. The resulting VAT or sales tax taxation system is regressive, but can be offset by vouchers / minimum living wage for the poor.

republic

Posted by: republic | Nov 30, 2016 9:52:19 PM | 47

I don't like the cashless idea but a FINANCIAL transaction tax raises vast amounts of revenue. A 1% Wall St. sales tax would raise over $10 Trillion in revenue in the US. I don't know if India has an entity similar to Wall St so I don't know what it would raise there. We could eliminate all other taxes in the US if we went to a 1% Wall St sales tax. Also there is the Chicago Commodities Exchange that also needs a sales tax but I don't have any idea how much it would raise. A Nobel Prize in economics was given to an economist named Tobin for coming up with the idea for the Tobin Tax.

Posted by: Bill Warrick | Nov 30, 2016 10:58:11 PM | 48

45

India's bureaucracy is as self serving as USAs One Party of Mil.Gov.Fed. Now imagine that corrupted model imposed on a 3W country, where the bloated Indian bureaucracy would now have their hands on money vouchers for the poor? Are you kidding me? They never leave their office, so they would sell the vouchers to police chiefs, who would give each patrol office some small skim, the patrol officers would demand a cash 'fee' for dispensing the vouchers, or who knows, they would be shrink-wrapped in bales of 100cror and be auctioned off to Indian landlords and food distributors, the same was EBT used to be gamed in the USA before it was electronic and is still gamed right outside the store in exchange for cash.

The idea of a VAT-Voucher system for India would go down in history as second only to Modi's insane currency and gold bold 'scheme'. Ever notice how Wall Street names all their funds 'schemes' on the SEC paperwork. So, the Modi VAT-Voucher Gold Bond Fund Scheme, lol. I'll bet Buffett and Soros would be on that in a NYC nano-second.

Posted by: chipnik | Nov 30, 2016 11:15:02 PM | 49

So what does this do the vast Indian "call center scammers" industry who run IRS scams, government grant scams, etc? Many seem to rely on getting loaded pre-paid credit cards of various sorts. iTune cards seem to be popular lately.

It seems that cashless societies will allow governments to eliminate drug cartels/dealers, or more likely get into business with them. It seems countries with high drug use and/or drug production will not go cashless.

Posted by: Erelis | Nov 30, 2016 11:22:25 PM | 50

I'm not sure why U.S. citizens would think this is a bad idea.

Modi is right - banning Rs.100 and Rs. 500 notes will stop all corruption, money laundering, drug trafficking, tax avoidance, organized crime, pooping on the sidewalk and various other horrible crimes against humanity because the large bills are mostly used for those purposes.

One has to look no further than the success seen in the U.S., which has nearly completely eliminated those social ills by banning the $500 and larger denomination bills. The $100 note is essentially banned as a practical, everyday matter because few normal 'little people' places will even accept them or make change for them. If you're not committing a crime, then who cares if the government knows about every financial transaction you make? The government should know everything you do - it's for your own protection from dangerous terrorists! Stop resisting, citizen. OBEY!

I think the U.S. was a bit further along the curve for transition than India, so the large-denomination elimination wasn't as traumatic as India's will be. But ask any American today and they will quickly agree that we have all but eliminated ALL large-denomination-facilitated crime here. No drugs. No organized crime. No corruption. The experiment was a success! We are a drug and corruption-free society - it's a damn paradise here. Modi obviously sees that and wants a similar crime-free paradise for the Indian people. See? Good for him!

Why doesn't the EU wise up and ban the evil, crime-producing €100 and €500 notes? Are you Europeans stupid, or what? Stop helping the criminals!

Oh, and if anybody noticed: arguably one of the most inefficient, corrupt government bureaucracies on earth will attempt to manage a transaction-based taxation scheme for a nation of 1.3 billion people. Yeah... that should work out well. What could possibly go wrong? It's such a bad idea that I'm kind of wondering if the U.S. isn't somehow behind it. Are we trying to break apart India for some reason?

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 1, 2016 12:22:26 AM | 51

re: PavewayIV | Dec 1, 2016 12:22:26 AM | 49

I posted something related to what you just said somewhere else. I was responding to the "nothing to hide, so nothing to fear" argument, and explained the consequences of the abolition of info-equity. It automatically establishes a vertical division of society into two very distinct, and unequal, groups. So here it is:

Go to any Walmart anywhere; look up; see 300 video cameras, of course. You are going to be recorded by at least five of them at any given time in there, and you damn well know it. Or go serf-walking down Main Street; in many, many cities and towns you are now subject to being an observee to the info-lords. And you know it; you are an info-serf on a technotronic plantation.

Indeed, welcome to the mass observation culture, where an elite ruling patrician observer class oversees the submissive subordinate observee class.

The wealthy info-elite will be entertained by the spectacle of our misery. The relationship will be non-reciprocal with no info-equity at all. All information about the wealthy info-elite and their minions (e.g. police) will be classified Top Secret, and censored by the mediums that they control. So the info-pleb observees will never be allowed to know what the elite are doing and enjoying.

Posted by: blues | Dec 1, 2016 1:10:28 AM | 52

@45 republic

Up until now the financiers haven't cared about the real economy, they're all 'airmen' ... they live on air.

46@ Bill Warrick

A financial transaction tax in the midst of their program-trade-dominated market would float all our boats, as they used to say ... and put the financiers' underwater, in about a nano-second.

These are the last gasps of the 'smart money' men, of Larry Summers and the other 'smartest guys in the room'. Of extend and pretend.

Have a look at the Inedpendent's 'selection' of countries arranged by the relative disparity between 'average wealth' - skewed to the highside by the grillionaires at top of the list - and 'median wealth' - still skewed to the highside but levened a bit by the wealth of the millionaires at the bottom. I think that along with the fall of the ratio of 'median-to-average' wealth - top to bottom - the breadth of the 'haves' beyond the 1% itself, climbs as well. There are more grillionaires and fewer millionaires at top, more millionaires fewer grillionaires at bottom. At least that's how I rationalize the numbers.

Then have a look at Credit Suisse's numbers on the same phenomenon world wide.

All those big numbers at the top are 1's ans 0's, as chipnick points out, created electronically, are not real wealth. The collective narrative is that they do represent something of real worth ... but only on their wildly inflated, self-referential scale, in the real world's, not so much.

Looking at the 'unreal worth' represented by those asymptotic numbers, the grillionaires are trying now to rope in some 'real' worth from back in the real world. Right now that real worth is beyond their reach ... it's 'unbanked' ... and that's the next 'challenge' for the financiers. They're having a round-up in India right now. Coming soon to 'developing' countries all around the world.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 1, 2016 1:15:08 AM | 53

Pando did some good reporting about his ties with silicon valley people, including Pierre Omidyar. Being the man in the middle on every transaction is how billionaires are made.

I don't think Pakistan is stupid enough to get into a nuclear war. Maybe Modi is

Posted by: Cresty | Dec 1, 2016 2:35:05 AM | 54

But... wait! I was told India is one of the Brics! Have you ever heard about India, the emerging superpower?

Posted by: guy | Dec 1, 2016 2:51:47 AM | 55

There is no way this is going to fly. In all my travels, i have never seen anywhere so cash dependent as India. For example, police use bhakshish (bribe money) to pay officers to post them to lucrative traffic circles so they can get more bhakshish, the "corruption" is not really corruption because it is a generally accepted way of existing for almost all Indians that I know. The millions of small villiages, roadside stalls, rickshaws and small businesses that have absolutely no experience with or access to Banks, will never let this happen. The police, and all other public servants who make more money on bhakshish than they do on wages, will never let this happen. Like everything else in India, there is a massive disparity between official policy and the reality on the ground. That way the government can be seen to be behaving according to whatever international policy pressures are being used to bring them into line, but the people ignore or override the beaurocracy, and almost everybody is in on it. The abolishment of the higher denomination notes is pure posturing, and every Indian knows that even if it was the beginning of a very real war against cash, it can never succeed. Modi is perfectly aware of this,but I suspect that he has to be seen to be trying to create a technologically hip, fully functional tax system that suits the millionare class (correct me if Im wrong, but I think there are more dollar millionares in India than in the US), a powerful and beligerent superclass of civilian businessmen who have more or less full control of official Indian economic policy (nobody has any control of the Unofficial economic policy)... I do not agree with the hypothesis that a war could be fought to distract the masses from the economic kleptomania that Modi is promoting. Pakistan, China, both are nuclear powers, and no country is suicidal. If there is to be any distraction, it would have to be internal, and there are currently a few tinderboxes waiting to be set off in the North, but I think it is all just political manuevering....

Posted by: dan | Dec 1, 2016 4:15:03 AM | 56

Why Narendra Modi's Demonetization measure violates the RBI Act and creates financial anarchy http://seemasapra.blogspot.in/2016/11/why-narendra-modis-demonetization-law.html

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 4:22:23 AM | 57

The reasons why the high denomination notes were banned are:

1) The big one: Pakistan was counterfeiting Indian currency on a massive scale and using that to fund terrorism in India. This was typically done by the ISI through Nepal and the money was spread out to muslim youth organisations in India. Without the demonetisation there was nothing the Indian government could have done to stop this. Now the legs have been cut off from this strategy. For proof, look at Kashmir - there no longer are hordes of young muslim (always muslim) men throwing stones at the police/army. Why? Because they were being paid 500/day and without counterfeit notes from Pakistan to fund Islamic terrorism in India, they are not interested in throwing stones. Given a choice, they would rather take up work and live a normal life. The stone throwing racket was taking their life away with the lure of easy money. This will all stop now. No more money for terrorists of many other stripes. Just this is worth the pain that the population is going through there.

2) The effect on black money - the rich in India (and I am talking relatively vs the rest of the population there) usually the business community, has two account books. One for the government (lower sales and profits leading to lower taxes) and one real. The difference between the two being the transactions done through cash, as there is no way that the government can prove the existence of a bigger revenue/profit/taxable base for the company/person which hides a big chunk of its profits by doing it solely in cash. That, over the years, has led to a significant share of transactions being done in cash which escape the government tax net. Just realise that this is money that is being stolen from the public because tax that the rich don't pay is effectively stolen from the poor. Because of the size of this black market in India, some people had accumulated a huge stock of high-denomination banknotes. Now, at a stroke, these people as well as others who get money through illegal means (bribes, extortion) have lost a significant chunk of their ill-gotten wealth. Isn't that fantastic??

Public reaction - when I ask my Indian friends about this, with very few exceptions, they are all happy. Why? Because mostly they are the salaried class and don't take bribes. So, they don't have any significant wealth tied up in cash at home (a normal tax-paying citizen has no reason to keep massive amounts of cash at home with deposit interest rates running at 8%). And they are very happy to see the wealth of the so-called respectable people who had made tremendous amounts of money from illegal activities or tax-dodging being turned to dust. ill-gotten wealth = toilet paper. Isn't that amazing?

Yes, it will affect the GDP in the short term. And yes, it has led to a significant amount of pain for the population. But look at news reports and see people standing in the queues being interviewed and you will be surprised at the level of support this measure has within India. But of course, those who suffer the most - tax dodging businessmen, bribe taking bureaucrats and politicians, political fixers and terrorist sympathisers with a lot of black and counterfeit money, complain loudly. Don't let this noise drown out the clapping of the vast majority.

On Modi, now he is termed as a fascist by the media. Which media may I ask? The same western media (all the usual suspects - CNN, BBC, Bloomberg, NYT, WaPo, should I take more names??) that has crapped all over the place with regards to reporting on Syria and Russia. Suddenly you all have started swallowing their narrative. Why?
Before the Indian elections, the Western media was in full swing against Modi - just look at a few articles from that period. It was a full-fledged character assassination campaign being run against him not only by the Western media but also by the domestic Indian media which has nearly completely sold out. Fortunately, the people of India are not stupid and against all odds they granted him a majority (much better than poll forecasts and btw this keeps on happening again and again with politicians and policies that the NWO doesn't like). Modi's victory was like Trump's win and the Brexit vote. Utterly propagandised against and a shock to the average media consumer.

And yes, long before this a big campaign was started against Modi when the PM's position was still a dream in his mind. His visa to the US was denied on Hillary Clinton's initiative. Why might you ask? Well, the same people who support Hillary (Saudi, Qatar) are the same who want Modi down. A lot of Saudi and Qatari money has been spent on creating the image of Modi that all you seem to profess now. HRC herself spoke several times against Modi while he was still a CM. Who's smiling now??

Just check your assumptions before getting to your conclusions based on a ridiculously biased view from the Western media.

About the tobin tax - it has been talked about, but not sure it is going to be implemented. The poor don't pay any income tax in India (like most other countries). But a lot of the rich don't pay as well. Now, they will. For all its faults, India is a mature democracy and given the state of the country, most of the people are poor. Any politician who tries to screw the poor won't survive and his policies will be rapidly reversed. If Modi does replace the income tax with the Tobix tax (and only the income tax, not property or any other taxes) then the poor will be taken care of. But why talk and discuss something which is not in the immediate (or even potential) offing.

@PavewayIV America doesn't have a finger in every pie in the world. The US has nothing to do with the demonetisation in India. You guys are not omnipresent. Get it!

Posted by: ancientarcher | Dec 1, 2016 5:54:09 AM | 58

The Government of India's own affidavit to the Supreme Court states that about 400 crore Rupees worth of counterfeit currency circulates in the economy at any point, quoting the National Investigative Agency. This cannot justify banning 86% of circulating currency overnight.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/bibek-debroy-counters-ex-pm-manmohan-singh-on-demonetisation-116112600005_1.html

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 6:13:26 AM | 59

chipnik @ 35 says:

His first act was to take the gold out of circulation by offering fiat script 'gold bonds' in return for the tons and tons of 24k gold jewelry that Indian families rely on for a store of value and personal wealth. They hoped for paper liquidity, but Modi wanted their bullion

you act like it's a fait accompli. gold is auspicious for Indians and it has great religious significance. and for people who believe that there are an infinite number of ways of reaching God, this is no minor fact.

i see plenty of implementation risks with this scheme.

ever seen an Indian crowd?

ever seen an angry Indian crowd?

i have.

Posted by: john | Dec 1, 2016 6:35:15 AM | 60

The Modi Government is now targeting gold holdings of Indians - http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/No-tax-on-jewellery/gold-purchased-out-of-disclosed-income-Finance-Ministry/articleshow/55724734.cms

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 6:43:00 AM | 61

re 58. Good to see Modi hires trolls to make his case. Blame the Pakistanis, that's Modi's style. Modi not a fascist? Well, maybe not literally fascist, but a bigotted sectarian, yes.

Posted by: Laguerre | Dec 1, 2016 6:54:17 AM | 62

re: ancientarcher | Dec 1, 2016 5:54:09 AM | 58

re: Laguerre | Dec 1, 2016 6:54:17 AM | 62

It seems like we have two perspectives in contention. Let me complain about issues with both.

First, this notion of "fascism" has reached its sell-by date. It looks to me like Modi is a religious bigot, but perhaps not a racist -- there's a difference, no? And while this experiment in national cashlessness was probably a serious mistake, there must have been some serious motivation for it. But are the motives justifiable (considering we ourselves probably never know our real motives anyway)? I hope it's not just this stupid Kashmir thing, with people being payed in counterfeit cash to throw rocks at Indian forces. It's time to put away this fake Kashmir football, and let that region be its own country. (Please don't complain about Americans calling the Indian pot black; we do not "choose our leaders".)

Ultimately this experiment is quite dangerous, since nobody knows what will happen. When the excrement hits the fan all kinds of hacks will be played, of course. Speaking of hacks, while cash can be abused and counterfeited, all the zeros and ones in the Giant India Skynet computer will surely become the world's number one target for hackers. As I said before, if enough of this happens, the whole system could collapse like the WTC (only much worse).

Since Paveway IV is very popular here, it's probably not wise to complain about his strictly ancillary issue of "I'm kind of wondering if the U.S. isn't somehow behind it". That sounds disingenuous since it obviously is not one of his main points.

Posted by: blues | Dec 1, 2016 7:53:05 AM | 63

B,

It's rare thing that you're completely wrong on the analysis of this person and the current activities that he started. About Modi, you're so off base that you now sound like a propaganda tap instead of knowing what's happening. The primary reasoning of his hounding was the 2002 riots but who reads this news? And do note he was cleared by a Supreme Court ordered commission that was set up by the opposition.

>Every bank note valued at over US$7 was taken out of circulation. The rather crazy idea behind this is to move all monetary transactions to some electronic money systems and to then tax each and every transaction. All other kind of taxes would be abolished.

Well, he's removed 86% of high denomination notes. For crushing out black money and counterfieting by Pakistan. and it worked. There's not been a major strike, bandh, hartal nationwide(even Kashmir) since the ban because you can't rustle up people to be on the streets without money and biryani

And you're conflating GST with the above. Problem is, GST discussion has been going on since 2012 and brought to legislative table multiple times BEFORE this demonetisation

>The government wants to move the people to open up bank accounts but the banking infrastructure in India is rudimentary, the systems running are old and the software inadequate to handle the masses.

This is completely false. India has been on core banking software like Finacle and other software for more than a decade. And the GOI set a world record by adding 219 million new accounts under the PMJDY scheme. Please, the GOI under this man has done more to get people to bank than the last 70 years under Congress. And GOI has announced that they want to add 10 million POS machines with .
a target of 1 million in 3 months

There's lot more wrong in the above post of yours. I'll get around to it when I have more time

Posted by: shanks | Dec 1, 2016 8:17:02 AM | 64

Something to remember is that India is a de-facto slave state. Something like half a billion people there are chronically malnourished, and most the rest not much better off.

Contrary to popular propaganda, Malthus was right. Malthus did not predict a global catastrophe, nor even famine. Malthus pointed out that, once a country no longer has an open frontier, continued high fertility rates soon result in crushing poverty for most people.

And Modi (and a lot of rich in this country) think this is great! 'Globally competitive labor costs!' Quick and easy profits! That's why they have been propagandizing that more people are always better, turning a blind eye to the abuse of child labor, and importing massive numbers of Bangladeshi refugees. Cheap labor uber alles!

So bottom line: Modi does not care. If his 'reforms' result in an economic hit, it just means that population growth will slow a bit as the weight of poverty makes people just that much more susceptible to disease, or women just that much less able to get pregnant (because malnutrition shuts down their menstrual cycle) or carry a pregnancy to term. But India is already crushed at the limit, it can't really get worse.

Posted by: TG | Dec 1, 2016 8:43:12 AM | 65

Modi and what we call in India the bakhtis set up dreams that no one can fulfill. This leads to natural frustration on his part and that of his supporters, since his shtick was to claim that he would reproduce what was seen in the state of Gujarat all over India.

He overlooked two (or three) points:
a) that the growth in India that Gujarat participated in was an inevitable result of the liberalisation of the Indian economy in the early 90s, after decades as a semi-command economy
b) the state of Gujarat itself is home to an entrepreneurial caste that has produced some of India's richest men
c) the social indices are much better in many other states such Tamil Nadu, which has no need for the exaggerations, typical of the saffron-brigade

The Indian economy is the way it is, since it represents the balance of myriad competing forces, and there is no miracle round the corner, to boost it. It is optimal in a certain sense. The only way an economy like India, population rich but resource poor can grow sufficiently to accommodate the million graduates a year, who claim some form of engineering education, is through a credit boom. But the joker has spiked it with his demonetisation. Modi's 'Big Bang' ideas should remind one of the grand sounding '500 day' reforms in the post-Soviet era.

Posted by: Ivan | Dec 1, 2016 8:52:52 AM | 66

It seems to me that Modi's own instincts is that of a fascist. The BJP rode on the hatred of Muslims to consolidate its power. That is essentially a fascist tactic - demonising a minority to hold on to power - no matter how they try to sugar-coat it.

Posted by: Ivan | Dec 1, 2016 8:58:00 AM | 67

@65,

I suggest you look at the fertility rates of India of the last census.

>Malthus pointed out that, once a country no longer has an open frontier, continued high fertility rates soon result in crushing poverty for most people.

woeful history knowledge of yours. Ever know what 200 years of Colonial rule did?

Posted by: shanks | Dec 1, 2016 9:28:24 AM | 68

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/narendra-modi-looks-to-do-away-with-credit-cards-debit-cards-now-centre-eyes-big-online-transformation/461687/

Modi would like people to use biometric data to buy everything from eggs and butter to gold.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 9:36:25 AM | 69

Hello b,

I grew up in India and still have family and friends there. Corruption and black money was the biggest problem that I saw. As far counterfeit money, this was a problem 30+ years ago and might have gotten real bad recently. The connection between counterfeit, terrorism, drug-traffiking and hawala is real. I spoke to friends and family, who are mostly in salaried class. They all love this move as only 4% of Indians pay income tax. A poll that came out (reported in Times of India) last week put the approval numbers around 80%. May be Modi is so smart that he fooled majority Indians or may be something had to be changed in India. Shaking up a system with 1.2 billion is never smooth.

I wish you had considered that there is another side to this story, before you wrote this. Anyways, many good discussions but lot of uninformed viewpoints. But all are welcome!

Posted by: Ronak | Dec 1, 2016 10:24:43 AM | 70

Re: Laguerre | Dec 1, 2016 6:54:17 AM | 62
Re: blues | Dec 1, 2016 7:53:05 AM | 63

Modi's troll? So much for taking the time out to contribute to a forum where I have gained a lot from. And I mentioned PavewayIV specifically because he is my favorite commentator on this blog and the depth of his knowledge is simply outstanding. So, I had to point out an obvious lacuna in his argument, and perhaps his thinking. America has done a lot of things wrong in its foreign policy but they definitely had nothing to do anything with this one here (and I am not sure this is a fukcup as some people think).

Who is a fascist bigot and who is a tolerant secularist is an argument we can have for ages without reaching any conclusion. All I am saying is, the views that most people have, are created by the same western MSM that we blame for their biased reporting in other areas. Why are they trusted so much on India and Modi??

I had been to Gujrat personally when Modi was the CM and spoken to a couple of people (cab drivers) who were muslims. They said they had voted for him. The reason - economic advancement. Others (hindus) were happy too. Their reasons were the same. They were all happy that they could get out of their villages where there wasn't enough work (or farmland) and get jobs in cities. New factories were being built, corruption was low, and there was no rioting (contrary to the MSM story - if Modi had been a bigot you would have seen continuous riots, instead there were none after the 2002 incident). What people want, Hindus and Muslims (and Christians and Jews) is economic prosperity and they are willing to vote for a leader who is seen as incorruptible and has the vision to make the changes needed for growth.

And don't look at India from the point of view of a Westerner looking at average incomes etc - you still can have a very good meal for $0.50 in most parts of India (except the big, expensive cities). People are very aware politically and in my humble opinion, understand politics much better than the US, for example. Modi doesn't need anyone to defend him - hey he won the parliamentary majority in a country of 1.2bn people when the whole media was demonising him - and he definitely doesn't need me. And the fact that the vast majority of the Indian population supports him says a lot about the demonetisation move.

And think of how many enemies Modi made with this move. Everyone who lost cash that that they had collected through illegal means now hates Modi. Unfortunately, those people are the ones who donate to political parties. His own party members would have lost money, but how can they say anything now when their own leader did this? This was a great political move only because the ordinary people love it so much and they will be the ones going to the polling booth vastly outnumbering the haters. Wouldn't you love it too you paid your taxes and were not corrupt but if most of the rich and corrupt got away without paying their dues??

b linked the demonetisation in India to a move towards a cashless society. There might be some truth in it but we are stretching things here. A higher denomination note has been introduced, which might again be used to hoard black money but people will be scared of such a move again, so the magnitude will be less. Just because Modi has pointed his finger towards Pakistan doesn't negate the fact that Pakistan was and remains a primary sponsor of Islamic (what other kind is there??) terrorism in the world and has been counterfeiting Indian currency notes to fund secessionary activities.

Posted by: ancientarcher | Dec 1, 2016 10:59:34 AM | 71

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's statement that his forces in Syria were there to topple President Bashar al-Assad had come as a surprise to Moscow and that it expected an explanation from Ankara.
In a speech on Tuesday, Erdogan condemned what he said was the failure of the United Nations in Syria and cast Turkey's incursion in August, when it sent tanks, fighter jets and special forces over the border, as an act of exasperation.
"We are there to bring justice. We are there to end the rule of the cruel Assad, who has been spreading state terror," Erdogan said.

"The announcement really came as news to us," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.
"It is a very serious statement and one which differs from previous ones and with our understanding of the situation. We hope that our Turkish partners will provide us with some kind of explanation about this."

Posted by: okie farmer | Dec 1, 2016 10:59:53 AM | 72

http://katehon.com/article/demonetization-india-authoritarian-and-demonic-theft

Panama Papers and Falciani

Hervé Falciani is a Franco-Italian software engineer who has access to all papers regarding HSBC (Swiss). Falciani possesses a colossal amount of data on Indian black money with around 1,300,000 names in the data (various countries).

Let’s listen to Falciani for a while:

A4. I had offered Indian investigators to come to Barcelona. Earlier it was planned that Argentina would also be part of this plan but with the change in government there, things have changed. But I had offered. I don’t have an answer from India.

A5. I will not go to India to get arrested. It won’t be a very intelligent way to proceed.

Question: Minister Arun Jaitely was not happy with your statements to journalists. You had requested for protection but he had said, “Whoever has whatever details, he or she should give it to us instead of putting any pre-conditions .”

A: The so-called “conditions” are only related to travel procedures.

A. If they don’t proceed in the right way, things will eventually lead to nothing. And I won’t participate in something that’s designed to fail.

Posted by: Maybe | Dec 1, 2016 11:09:06 AM | 73

Modi is also corrupt. See - On Modi's Watch, 20,000 Crores Vanished. The Big "Gas Scam" http://www.ndtv.com/opinion/from-jairam-ramesh-7-questions-for-pm-modi-on-20-000-crore-scam-1404319

Modi has lied about his education. He claims two degrees but both are fraudulent.

Modi received bribes as Chief Minister of Gujarat. Google Modi and the Sahara and Birla diaries.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:16:06 AM | 74

Just by seeing the initial lines which use words mostly used by so called MSM news outlets as 'racist', 'neo facist' and comparing nationalist to essentially all of the tags mentioned earlier. So you can imagine what is the agenda or propaganda behind this article. More than 90% of the people have supported this demonetization drive. I am from India and I know what is happening here at ground level. This drive has essentially eradicated and completely stopped 'terror financing' due to counterfeit currencies from Pakistan, pounced on hoarded black money in trillions illegally, and brought transparency in cash transactions.

The writer is having same liberal communist agenda of attacking any nationalism and I am sure he would put the Donald Trump in the same category.

Posted by: vicky | Dec 1, 2016 11:25:39 AM | 75

Seema @74.

This is an opinion piece by Mr. Ramesh, who is in the opposition Congress party. Shouldn't he be asking questions about Mr. Singh's corruption list first. Just saying...

Posted by: Ronak | Dec 1, 2016 11:33:44 AM | 76

Ronak @76

No, lets forget about the corrupt Mr Manmohan Singh for the moment and lets focus on the corrupt Mr Narendra Modi.

Lets also ignore who wrote the piece and instead lets look at the undisputed facts about Modi which have been revealed and what they tell us about Modi.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:36:53 AM | 77

As Gujarat Energy & Petrochemicals Minister, Saurabh Patel joined family firm that invested in oil, gas blocks http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/saurabh-patel-corruption-oil-gas-blocks-gujarat-energy-petrochemicals-minister-4388863/

This corruption also took place under Narendra Modi's watch.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:38:15 AM | 78

Seema @ 77.

Why should we ignore any corruption? I was pointing out that accuser that you mentioned is from the most corrupt party that ruled India for most of it's recent history.

Also, Mr. b has made this forum possible for us participate. Not sure about his intentions on turning this into a political forum from India.

Good bye.

Posted by: Ronak | Dec 1, 2016 11:45:45 AM | 79

Modi as Prime Minister now trying to cover up his corruption as Chief Minister of Gujarat.
The other KG gas scam: Is ONGC being bulldozed into saving a debt-burdened Gujarat-owned company? http://scroll.in/article/819488/the-other-kg-gas-scam-ongc-is-being-bulldozed-into-saving-a-debt-burdened-gujarat-owned-company

A covert ‘surgical strike’ http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/A-covert-%E2%80%98surgical-strike%E2%80%99/article16079543.ece

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:49:07 AM | 80

@seema - you have so many points to make in so many posts, so many here are probably ignoring you at this point..

Posted by: james | Dec 1, 2016 12:03:10 PM | 81

This Modi plan cannot work in a country like India. (For other it might be discussed seriously.)

I have great difficulty in understanding even why he is proposing it (i.e. not convinced by any of the pro-arguments. but see others above..) It sounds like just ‘modern guff’, oh we will innovate, be the first, etc.

At present Sweden is the OECD country that is reaching for that first place on the podium of a cash-less society, and they are well on their way. (see also Penelope above.) It is near done…

Note there is one argument that many like to mention for Africa (for ex.), ppl have mobile phones, but no bank accounts, they need a way to shunt money outside of the banking structure, etc. what exactly that would be is moot, or differs according to different commentators, etc.

Implementing it would be costly (who gets the money? Which parts of the skim off the top are awarded to whom?) in say Togo or Sierra Leone etc.

I don’t know too much about this stuff, but it looks like an undergound war between the ‘communications’ sector, those who control the ‘com, info pipelines’ - large transnational corps and Gvmt. stooges, Gvmts often own part of these cos. or in fact control them, and certainly are powerful players because they award permits and the like so control comm. infrastructure - and the traditional banks, who, all over the world have fallen behind on this point, but who hold on to supremacy because they are the lenders, aka, money creators.

So they, the Big Banks, are for the mo the arbitrators and controllers, but are being attacked (under cover) by the Tobin-tax types. (All this comes from Tobin’s original proposition to tax some transactions in x way.)

Posted by: Noirette | Dec 1, 2016 12:05:38 PM | 82

Many of Varanasi’s famous looms have stopped running due to the cash shortage and the city’s small vendors are also struggling with falling sales.

Demonetisation: Daily Wagers Fighting the Crisis by Skipping One Meal a Day

More trouble to come - this simply can't work even when 80% allegedly applauded the move when it was introduced. Maybe that was only in the big cities? The country simply doesn't have the infrastructure outside of those.

Posted by: b | Dec 1, 2016 12:13:56 PM | 83

folks

Instead of slinging random sites links for and against, can we revisit this topic at the end of this month? We've not had riots so far and certainly none politically motivated so far.

A lot of informal methods have already sprung up for the goof ups of minor nature. Payday was today and nothing has broken out that would be called apocalyptic. Credit works, electronic payments work and so do a whole host of methods other than direct cash payment.


Instead of shaking your head, watch the action. after all they did 220 million bank account openings in 1 year or lesser and cancelled about 30 million fake welfare gas connections in 1 year

Scale is not what you're used to dealing with.

Posted by: shanks | Dec 1, 2016 12:33:02 PM | 84

Re: b | Dec 1, 2016 12:13:56 PM | 83

100% of people in the country have suffered from demonetisation, some more than others. The long-term losses will probably be more for the black money hoarders and the short term pain more for the poorest.

Look at what customers (waiting to exchange their cash) and employees in a bank visit by a known anti-Modi journalist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAKzmXRk_Mg

It was never going to be painless. But the support of ~80% of the people inspite of the pain is not trivial. People who have lost too much of their cash or are going through a really painful phase will complain. There will be some loss of business and a negative impact on India GDP. But all that is temporary. The gain will be a lot more permanent! And people understand that.

Posted by: ancientarcher | Dec 1, 2016 12:46:44 PM | 85

Many people have died as a result. People have not been able to obtain medical treatment. Major life events have been adversely impacted like births, deaths, marriages. Daily, poor people have been beaten by police in bank queues. Police raids have been conducted without authority of law and property seized. People are living in survival mode. Many have not had enough to eat. Lakhs of people have lost jobs. Many have been forced to buy new currency at a loss in the black market to pay for survival needs. They have incurred losses. People's livelihoods and businesses have been badly affected. Their earnings have stopped or come down. People are not being able to live their normal lives or to work, or to travel normally etc. People are being unlawfully prevented from withdrawing their own money from banks.

Shops have been looted. Bank property destroyed. Fights have broken out. There have been street protests. Highways blocked.

Yes, but large scale riots have not broken out.

Withdrawing 86% of the currency overnight in an economy with 95% transactions in cash, with no plan, ability and perhaps even intent to replace this currency is not a minor goof-up.

Violating the law and citizens' constitutional rights and creating monetary anarchy is not a minor goof-up.

Modi's demonetization measure is a malafide and fraudulent exercise of power.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 12:57:11 PM | 86

Demonitization is being sold as a boon to India gubmint's war against the Red Menace who are supposedly surrendering in droves because they can no longer afford to buy weapons.

Posted by: ruralito | Dec 1, 2016 12:57:42 PM | 87

Watch YouTube videos here of Police beating up people at banks in India because of Modi's demonetization.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=polce+beating+at+bank

The vast majority of Indians do not support this measure. The one Modi app survey was gamed.

Every person I have spoken to in Delhi since November 8 (and I have spoken to many many poor people) is unhappy and distressed.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 1:02:46 PM | 88

The Police is being used to intimidate and silence people who are protesting against demonetization. See - Social Media Post Against Demonetisation Lands a 19-Year-Old in Prison http://thewire.in/83154/demonetisation-social-media-madya-pradesh/

Here is an extract from this story.

"The Wire had earlier reported that on November 14, P. Narhari, Indore’s district collector unprecedentedly invoked Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure and made it a criminal offence “to post any objectionable and inflammatory posts on social media or mobile messaging applications about the Modi government’s decision to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.”

According to the order, these so-called objectionable social media posts could have the potential to harm or damage “human life and public property”. Most internet rights organisations objected to such blanket ban on social media posts and found it politically-partisan and illogical to equate criticism of demonetisation and inciting violence."

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 1:13:36 PM | 89

The Cult of the Leader: Demonetisation and Modi Worship http://thewire.in/82547/demonetisation-modi-stalinism/

worth a read

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 1:57:51 PM | 90

Whatever little to nothing the idiots achieve by this ridiculous exercise, it should gladden the economics student as a large scale experiment in folly. The fellows in India are talking nonsense about going cashless when even in a highly wired and efficient place like Singapore they cannot do without cash. After this display of arbitrariness anyone thinking of investing in India should have second thoughts. In particular one can expect that Indians overseas wringing hands, at the alleged inability of outsiders to understand this "masterstroke" from Modi would be the first to find ways out to keep their money in dollars and pounds. The breathtaking hypocrisy of Indians is the one constant.

Posted by: Ivan | Dec 1, 2016 2:50:01 PM | 91

Modi's intimidation tactics. His demonetization is being vigorously opposed by the Chief Minister of West Bengal Ms Mamata Bannerjee.

Yesterday, her aircraft was forced to hover over an airport for half an hour. She alleged this was a deliberate attempt to harm or threaten her.

Tonight, the army (which is under Modi's control) has been deployed in West Bengal without notifying Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee or the West Bengal Police.

An amazing conversation is taking place on twitter between Bannerjee, the Army and the West Bengal Police with the Press reporting it.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 3:09:45 PM | 92

ancientarcher@58 - "...America doesn't have a finger in every pie in the world. The US has nothing to do with the demonetisation in India. You guys are not omnipresent. Get it!..."

It was intended as sarcasm, emphasizing that demonetization is a useless solution to the stated problems. Its a popular, 'feels good' move. Come back here in five years and tell me the success it had against this:

"...And they are very happy to see the wealth of the so-called respectable people who had made tremendous amounts of money from illegal activities or tax-dodging being turned to dust. ill-gotten wealth = toilet paper. Isn't that amazing?..."

Turned to dust? [face palm...] I know everyone in India can't be this delusional. The wealthy are not stupid. This is the kind of moral victory that a child reads about in a comic book. In real life, the wealthy cheats have all converted their ill-gotten wealth into some other store of value by now. And they will continue to take bribes and cheat on taxes by adjusting their methods, trade and stores - just like they did everywhere else on earth.

Even the anti-counterfeiting argument falls flat on its face. This is the first article Google pulls up about counterfeiting:

Demonetisation is hardly a durable solution to fake currency: Here's why

There are other main goals Modi or his handlers have with regards to demonitization, but it always comes down to the tired old (but expected) actual psychopathic statist intent: control the little people as easily and cheaply as possible until the banking Ponzi blows up (again). Modi's supposed fascism or religious bigotry is of far lesser consequence - we all know how this will end.

Different dynamics, but the same game plan in the U.S., so I claim no American exceptionalism here. This is like a group of idiots sitting in a circle drinking drain cleaner, betting who will be the first to collapse and 'lose'. This does not make the remaining participants 'winners' in any sense of the word. Will the U.S. or India collapse first? Who cares - the state's electronic intrusion into every transaction made by its citizens is like drinking drain cleaner.

"Put on these shackles so we can protect you from bad things and make everything fair and equal, but we promise we won't enslave you with them. No, seriously - we double- ...no, triple-promise!"

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 1, 2016 3:11:29 PM | 93

Who cares if he is a "racist"? So what? In any case, "Racist" is a Trotskyite propaganda term that has no objective meaning outside of Marxist discourse.

Posted by: Old Ez | Dec 1, 2016 4:02:45 PM | 94

Hear, hear PavewayIV. It is our cash but their database system.

Posted by: Ivan | Dec 1, 2016 4:03:34 PM | 95

@65 TG

I think that's the part that people don't understand about the rich in India and Thailand. They just do not care what happens to their subject populations. They rely on them for their wealth and regard them as an inexhaustible resource in the aggregate, but don't care at all or think at all about them as human beings like themselves.

And this same attitude is now being adopted by the West, by the rich to their own disadvantaged populations ... but with a difference and a consequent vengeance. The plutocrats in the West are the ones taking advantage of the poor in China and India, so they have no use for their own disadvantaged. They do not view us as a 'resource', as the Chinese and Indians do view their reserve armies of labor, so they are making do - using us as prison populations, as a means to extract tax dollars as input to the prison-industrial complex, and - on the other side of the same coin - as consumers of military-industrial complex' output. Perhaps soon, as Paveway has forecast, they will reinstate the draft and send us all to our deaths as cannon fodder in their wars as their 'final solution' to their 'disadvantaged problem'.

But China and India still see their reserve armies of labour as the source of their wealth, and have done so for millennia. This move by Modi is surprising to us in the West, perhaps, but read the 'explanations' of it by the Indian wannabes, educated and working in the Western treadmill at home and abroad. Perfectly normal to them.

@82 Noirette, 'Note there is one argument that many like to mention for Africa (for ex.), ppl have mobile phones, but no bank accounts, they need a way to shunt money outside of the banking structure, etc. what exactly that would be is moot, or differs according to different commentators, etc.'

That push is happening in Thailand, too, with a large percentage of the population 'unbanked'. And there's a certain synergy between the fascist government here and the fascist financial sector, after February one will have to be fingerprinted and have one's fingerprint stored in one's SIM when one buys a mobile phone. To 'protect' oneself ... for the benefit of the fascist fraternity, of course.

It's the ultimate in total control. You're not an 'economic entity' unless you're registered with the authorities, and everything you do is filed in Big Data once you are.

And, as well, de-monetization will be much more specifically applied once they have control of all the 'economic entities' and all the money.

@84 Shanks, 'Credit works, electronic payments work and so do a whole host of methods other than direct cash payment.'

That's exactly the point. The English-speaking, technically-employed, well-off minority think it's great. The 1% everywhere think its great.

@91 Ivan, '... one can expect that Indians overseas ... would be the first to find ways out to keep their money in dollars and pounds. The breathtaking hypocrisy of Indians is the one constant.'

Posted by: jfl | Dec 1, 2016 7:04:57 PM | 96

jfl @ 97. As you note there is a disturbing contempt for the suffering of those most immediately affected by this. The daily workers, those in the small retail trade and people who just cussedly do not trust the government. The rights of all these people have been grossly violated in peacetime in the name of fighting corruption. The BJP touts itself as business friendly entity, yet have damaged the trust necessary to conduct transactions with less hassle. Again notwithstanding all the chest-thumping of the 110% superpatriots, I doubt if a single one of them would put their own money to start a business in this environment. For anything up to a year from now, few transactions will take place in the real estate sector, since the bureaucrats will apply the method of maximal harassment in order to protect their jobs.

Posted by: Ivan | Dec 1, 2016 8:53:50 PM | 97

"TNA: In two tragic side-effects of demonetisation in Bihar, an infant was found dead in the arms of his mother as she stood in a long, suffocating queue in a bank and a man’s body was held captive by a private hospital for over 12 hours as his kin were unable to pay the pending bills with new Rs 500 notes."

Source http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2016/dec/01/demonetisation-infant-dies-in-mothers-arms-in-bihar-as-she-stands-in-bank-queue-1544597.html

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:28:08 PM | 98

It is only Modi trolls & die hard BJP-wallahs and clueless, self-absorbed, insulated, and right-wing "overseas" Indians who are minimizing the suffering and disruption caused by Narendra Modi's assault on the Indian currency. Most Indians in India are condemning what Modi has done and the needless pain caused to ordinary people.

People in India are comparing demonetization to sterilization, as the Hindi words for both - Notebandi and Nasbandi are similar. Nasbandi or sterilization was a forced population control measure used by the Government of India when it seized emergency powers in the 1970s. Modi's demonetization is an undeclared and unconstitutional financial emergency.

Under the Indian Constitution, an emergency is a situation when the Government can suspend peoples rights and abrogate power to itself which it normally does not enjoy.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 1, 2016 11:58:47 PM | 99

"Demonetisation has hit Agra’s unorganised shoe manufacturing industry, with a large number of workers being out of work.
It is 2 p.m. A small workshop located in the extreme corner of Chakki Paat, a densely populated Dalit settlement which produces tens of thousands of shoes every day, is quiet. Of the 20-odd workers, only three karigars are showing the magic of their hands. On a normal day, they don’t get time to strike a conversation with each other, given that they have to produce 200 pairs of shoes at the end of the day. Ever since the demonetisation announcement, the workers at the unit have had no work, just like over three lakh workers associated with the city’s unorganised shoe manufacturing industry.

Lives paralysed


“Our lives have been pushed back by at least 10 years. The government has prevented us from withdrawing our own hard-earned money and thereby paralysed the shoe manufacturing units,” says Bharat Singh, the owner of the workshop. In Agra, families join hands with workers, mainly Dalits and Muslims, and set up small manufacturing units which work only on cash. There are 10,000 such workshops, located in Qazi Pada and Teela Nanadram, which produce over 10,00,000 pairs of shoes daily. The annual turnover is said to be Rs. 14,000 crore.

Agra itself contributes to 28 per cent of the national export and 65 per cent of the domestic consumption of shoes in the country."

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/In-Agra-%E2%80%98soles%E2%80%99-bear-the-burden-of-demonetisation/article16738910.ece

This is happening across the board, in every industry and sector, in every rural and scame and medium scale enterprise.

Posted by: Seema Sapra @SeemaSapraLaw | Dec 2, 2016 12:08:02 AM | 100

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