Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 18, 2016

ISIS Moves To Syria Where Erdogan Still Aims For Aleppo

The Iraqi army started a large operation to liberate Mosul from Islamic State jihadists. But the forces, in total some 40,000, are still several dozen kilometers away from the city limits. They will have to capture several towns and villages and pass many IED obstacles before coming near to the center and house to house fighting. It might take many month to eliminated the last stay-behind ISIS cells in Mosul.

About one million civilians live in Mosul. Many, many more than in east-Aleppo. Many of them were sympathetic with the new overlords when ISIS stormed in two years ago. French, American, Kurdish, Iraqi and Turkish artillery are pounding them now. Airstrikes attack even the smallest fighting position. When the city will be conquered it will likely be destroyed. The imminent fight over Mosul might be the reason why John Kerry dialed down his hypocritical howling over east-Aleppo in Syria which is under attack from Syrian and Russian forces.

The attack on Mosul proceeds on three axes. From the north Kurdish Peshmerga under U.S. special force advisors lead the fighting. Iraqi forces attack from the east and south. The way to the west, towards Syria, is open. The intend of the U.S. is to let ISIS fighters, several thousand of them, flee to Deir Ezzor and Raqqa in Syria. They are needed there to further destroy the Syrian state.

We pointed out here that this move will create the "Salafist principality" the U.S. and its allies have striven to install in east-Syria since 2012. The "mistake" of the U.S. bombing of Syrian army positions in Deir Ezzor was in support of that plan. Other commentators finally catch up with that conclusion.

The Turks are openly talking about such an escape plan for ISIS in Mosul. The Turkish news agency Anadolu published this "sensitive" operations plan. Point 4 says:

An escape corridor into Syria will be left for Daesh so they can vacate Mosul


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Two points in the Turkish plan will not come true.

  • The Iraqi government has ordered that no Turkish troops take part in the Mosul operation and will designate them as enemies should they try.
  • The Sunni "Nineveh Guard", trained by Turkey, paid by the Saudis and led by the former Anbar governor Atheel al-Nujaifi, will also be excluded.

It was the Saudi proxy al-Nujaifi who practically handed Anbar over to ISIS by ordering his troops to flee when ISIS attacked. He and his Saudi and Turkish sponsors want to create an independent Sunni statelet in west Iraq just like the Kurds created their own entity within north Iraq.

The U.S. hopes that the influx of ISIS fighters into Syria will keep the Russians and Iranians trapped in the "quagmire" Obama prescribed and finally destroy the Syrian state. It seems to have mostly given up on other plans. The U.S. military now acknowledges that fighting the Russian air defense in Syria would be a real challenge:

"It’s not like we’ve had any shoot at an F-35,” the official said of the next-generation U.S. fighter jet. “We’re not sure if any of our aircraft can defeat the S-300.”

There is a "no-fly zone" over west-Syria and it is the Russians who control it. All U.S. and Turkish talk about such a zone is moot. The Obama administration has for now also given up on other plans. The recent National Security Council meeting deferred on further decisions:

Consideration of other alternatives, including the shipment of arms to U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in Syria, and an increase in the quantity and quality of weapons supplied to opposition fighters in Aleppo and elsewhere, were deferred until later, officials said. U.S. military action to stop Syrian and Russian bombing of civilians was even further down the list of possibilities.

The only U.S. "hope" for its Syria plans is now the facilitation of another ISIS influx. That and the CIA coordinated actions of its allies. The Saudis Foreign Minister announced that his country will increase weapons flow to its al-Qaeda proxies in Syria. The "rebels" are still receiving TOW anti-tank missiles and other heavy weapons.

Turkish proxy forces, some Syrians, some "Turkmen" from Chechnya and elsewhere, have taken Dabiq from ISIS. The village is said to become a focal point of a future apocalyptic Christian-Muslim battle. A lot of "western" commentators pointed to that as a reason why ISIS would fight for it. But that battle is only predicted for the period after the return of the Mahdi which has not been announced. The current ideological value of Dabiq is therefore low and, like in Jarablus, ISIS cooperated well and moved out before the Turkish proxies moved in.

The Russians had allowed Turkey to enter Syria only within a limit of some 15 kilometers south of the Turkish border. Heavy artillery would have to stay on the Turkish side. The sole original purpose of the Turkish invasion was to prevent a Kurdish corridor from the eastern Kurdish areas in Syria to Afrin in the west. Such a corridor would have limited ISIS access to Turkey.

The Kurdish corridor has been prevented and ISIS access to Turkish controlled areas and Turkey itself is as open as ever. The Turkish military sees this as sufficient for its aims:

Taking control of Dabiq had eliminated the threat to Turkey from rockets fired by the jihadists, the Turkish Armed Forces said in a written statement.


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The Turkish military wants to halt the operation. But Erdogan and his proxies forces want to go further south and west to attack the Syrian army encirclement of east-Aleppo:

President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said on Sunday Dabiq's liberation was a "strategic and symbolic victory" against Islamic State.

He told Reuters it was important strategically that the Turkey-backed forces continue their advance toward the Islamic State stronghold of al-Bab.

To move to al-Bab Turkish artillery, with its units relying on conscripts, would have to move south of the Turkish-Syrian border. Any attack on them by the Syrian or Russian forces would thus become legal. Kurdish guerilla would be a constant threat. This explains the new split between the Turkish military and political forces. It will be interesting to watch how that dispute develops.

For Thursday the Russian command announced a unilateral temporary ceasefire in east-Aleppo to let the Jihadis move out. British and other special forces, said to be embedded with al-Qaeda, will be happy for the chance to leave.

In Iraq some Shia militia are moving towards Tal Afar to cut of the ISIS path to the west. Russia promised to take political and military measures should it detect an ISIS move. In east-Syria the Russian and Syrian air-forces, Hizbullah and more Shia militia from Iraq are now preparing surprises for the expected ISIS influx from Mosul. How much can they risk when the U.S. provides further air-support for the ISIS move?

Posted by b on October 18, 2016 at 05:21 AM | Permalink

Comments
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Hi b, I suppose the Russians stopped the operation in Aleppo in advance,to concentrate in east-Syria: https://www.rt.com/news/363117-russian-air-force-stops-aleppo-strikes/

Posted by: Gigi | Oct 18, 2016 5:42:54 AM | 1

Quite a lot of sources are saying that the ISIS fighters defending Mosul are pretty much all locals, and that the "foreigners" left some time ago. In that case they are not going to leave for Syria, even if a route is left open. Rather once they lose (if they do fully), they will shave off their beards and disappear into the local population.

You say that the fighting could last some time (which is true). But there is a strict American timetable: the battle has to be over and victory declared by 8th November. It would be quite easy to upset that timetable. Indeed, if the timetable were to be achieved, it would require the collaboration of ISIS organised through Saudi, as you suggest.

I still don't see how that is going to work. The Sunni Arabs of Mosul don't want to be taken over by the Peshmerga, or the Shi'a army of Baghdad. Or indeed the Turks. It's going to be a very delicate issue whether the US-led attack is better or worse than ISIS.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 18, 2016 6:03:18 AM | 2

The Shia PMU should give good chase to the bastards. A few Iranian drones might come in handy too. Happy shooting boys!

Posted by: jezabeel | Oct 18, 2016 6:05:02 AM | 3

jezabeel | Oct 18, 2016 6:05:02 AM | 3
Well, the US-led "coalition" is really out to destroy ISIS.

Iraq's volunteer forces (Hashd al-Shaabi) complained that the warplanes of the US-led coalition are allowing ISIL military convoys flee Mosul in Iraq's Nineveh province to Syria without being harmed.

It also appears that there is dissent in the rank of ISIS:
Daesh Police Rises against its Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi
Local media have reported on Monday that Daesh religious police has rebelled against the terrorist organization's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Iraq's Mosul, killing the leader of Hisba in the area.

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Flees to Raqqa, Wife Arrested
ISIL terror group ringleader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has fled to Raqqa in Syria before the Iraqi army started its operations in Mosul, but his wife has been arrested, sources said on Monday.

So, because of their desire to use ISIS for regime change in Syria, the US missed the chance to kill Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Why has none of the MSM raised this important evidence of the United States consorting with terrorists? If the Syrians had done the same, would the world's media be silent?

Posted by: Ghostship | Oct 18, 2016 6:41:17 AM | 6

Question is, has Russia the military capability to strike columns of Daesh fighters if they do try to escape by the road Mosul-Sinjar to east Syria ? It seems very far in the eastern regions fort the russian bases in Syria.

Posted by: Kinan | Oct 18, 2016 7:34:59 AM | 7

The gods be good: Niccolò Machiavelli would be so proud.
The intracacies of this game board are almost beyond comprehension; at least mine.
This is likely why the U.S. rarely achieves its stated goals; but then those goals may (probably are) also be a diversion from the true goals...

Posted by: V. Arnold | Oct 18, 2016 7:47:15 AM | 8

The Russian initiated temporary cessation around the city of Aleppo could be a good sign. Rumours that people living in Aleppo have tired of the conditions might mean the Russians are aware of this and that given the chance, there might be an exodus. Considering the shortage of pro Assad ground troops, could it be that Russia has coincided the ceasefire with ISIS trying to flee Mosul? It looks like there are many crossing places from Iraq into Syria, so would it be possible to patrol such an area? Despite a steady flow of recent loyalist successes, I get an awful feeling that the 'rebels' might still have some tricks up their sleeve.

Posted by: Andy | Oct 18, 2016 7:48:45 AM | 9

Turkey says it wants to participate to the fight for Raqqa.
The Russians could well make use of the Turkish army to destroy the last ISIS stronghold as the Syrians forces are busy fighting in Aleppo and Edlib. The Russians don't need the YPG, the USA does.
Therefore the Russians can make a deal with Turkey that in exchange for the neutralization of the YPG, Turkey will commit troops and air force to destroy Al Raqqa. The question would be who would control Raqqa after...
The Russians can also call on Iranian supported Iraqi Shias to intervene in Al Raqqa after the fall of Mossoul.
Al Raqqa war will be the decisive one and it is starting already.

Posted by: virgile | Oct 18, 2016 8:11:15 AM | 10

virgile says:

The Russians don't need the YPG, the USA does

hmmm

Posted by: john | Oct 18, 2016 8:18:27 AM | 11

Kinan | Oct 18, 2016 7:34:59 AM | 7
ISIS wouldn't want to cross into territory in Syria held, even loosely, by the Kurds. so that rules out crossing directly from Sinjar. They have to cross further south.
Kinan | Oct 18, 2016 7:34:59 AM | 7
The problem is not the range but arriving over the target while it's still viable. Foward deployment would make that a lot easier. Most Russian military aircraft are designed to be able to land and takeoff safely from shit surfaces so the airfield at Palmyra could be used if that has been cleaned up for a forward deployment, as could roads in that area.
Andy | Oct 18, 2016 7:48:45 AM | 9
Russia seems to have fairly capable reconnaissance drones and the Tu-214R which should be able to monitor most likely crossing points.

Posted by: Ghostship | Oct 18, 2016 8:36:50 AM | 12

The only thing Russia and SAF has to do is to bomb the ISIS convoy when it runs from Mosul to Raqqa or Deir Azzor. Just watch the movement and incinerate the dogs when they come out. Block the passge to Raqqa and Deir Azzor, let US provide them cover but even then bomb them on their way. Or bomb the bridges connecting these cities. Btw US has done that already.

Posted by: ChamCham | Oct 18, 2016 8:41:00 AM | 13

b

After reading your assessments, am I correct to assume the mother of all battles, Mosul and Raqqa, will Russia defend Raqqa like they did in Aleppo?

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 8:58:17 AM | 14

No, how would you know US bombed bridges to prevent ISIS? Analysts claim they did it exactly to stop SAA to go after ISIS.

Posted by: Alesh | Oct 18, 2016 9:01:37 AM | 15

What could complicate the Mosul operation is Turkey. Erdogan reiterates Turkey's past territorial claims to Mosul, comments made to explain determination to participate in ISIS fight.http://news.antiwar.com/2016/10/17/erdogan-reiterates-turkeys-past-territorial-claims-to-mosul/ Hope the US don't use barrel bombs to target hospitals, women and children in Mosul.

Posted by: harrylaw | Oct 18, 2016 9:12:05 AM | 16

This great game is getting to great for me. This is crazy.

Posted by: Cycloben | Oct 18, 2016 9:18:34 AM | 17

Let me repost my question and @ virgile | Oct 18, 2016 8:11:15 AM | 10.

- fast forward, ..."The question [would be] who would control Raqqa..." at the end of the day?

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 9:27:05 AM | 18

b: But the forces, in total some 40,000, are still several dozen kilometers away from the city limits.

Other sources report 45,000 Iraqi soldiers and Shia militia. Kurds? Haven’t seen a number – tens of thousands, at least. USG: 5000 “troops in Iraq.” US 101 Airborne is tag-teaming w/ Kurds. Coalition airstrikes have been softening targets for weeks. UK, US, Fr artillery are all pounding targets.

OK, so all up, there must be 75,000 troops heading for the party in Mosul, not counting artillery and air assets.

What about Da’esh? Pentagon estimates 3,000-5,000. So, the ratio is on the order of 10 or 20: 1

You also have to consider that there are over 1 million civilians in Mosul. Reports from inside Mosul say a lot of pissed off moderate Sunni will be pulling out their hidden AK’s and eliminating Da’esh from the inside out. They should have a very effective kill ratio.

So Da’esh is hugely outnumbered, not counting the 1m Mosul residents – maybe 20:1. By comparison, in the final 2016 battle for Palmyra it took about 3 weeks for 6000 SAA+friends, supported by RuAF airstrikes, to exterminate the place of 2000 Da’esh rodents and reptiles, 25% of which were killed. That was a ratio of 3:1.

The problem is not exterminating Da’esh, it’s keeping advancing Shia and Kurds from butchering non-Da’esh Sunni.

Even if all 5000 Da’esh scum were to miraculously make it to Deir Ezzor, it wouldn’t make that much difference. Just another short delay in the inevitable – and the inevitable is not a “salafist principality.” al-Baghdadi is peeing his panties and trying to find a burqa that will fit.

These Da’esh clowns remind me of IDF. They are able to exist and terrorize people only because they have good PR that presents them as scary. They kill farmers and merchants and 14 year-old kids with rocks, but when finally confronted with trained, armed opposition, they will pee themselves and run off into the desert. Looking forward to the next edition of the glossy Dabiq magazine. Should be good.

As for the IDF, to paraphrase Trump: Make Israel Palestine Again

Posted by: Denis | Oct 18, 2016 9:32:20 AM | 19

A new twist, according to Iranian's Farsnews

"Al-Baghdadi had been severely wounded in the Al-Anbar battle in Western Iraq last month, and his wounds were so lethal that he could not at all move freely," a local Iraqi source told the Arabic service of the Russian Sputnik news agency on Tuesday.

The source said despite long treatment in Mosul, the general health conditions of the ISIL leader deteriorated due to "a deep abdominal cut, damage to his liver and crippling wounds in his left limb.

...Al-Baghdad lost his life in the town of Al-Be'aaj some 100km (60 miles) West of Mosul near the border with Syria..., but his death is concealed....."

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 9:39:31 AM | 20

The 'fight' for Mosul may be as bogus as the Turkish 'pivot'.

The problem with this 'fight' starts with the question of who will occupy Mosul when it falls. We know that Erdogan has laid claim to Mosul and Aleppo.

This thorny question leads us to the realization that Mosul doesn't have to fall. The current 'fight' is really just a morality play whereby the Assad must go! Coalition appears to fight the good fight against ISIS while R+6 bombs hospitals and civilians.

Thus, for the time being, a Mosul "stalemate" would serves the interests of both Turkey and USA. The rationale for leaving the Western approaches open would then be NOT to allow ISIS to escape (it is said that many already have) but to allow Mosul to be reinforced as necessary.

One could well imagine that, at some point in the future, after Iraq has tired of the fight, Turkey will walk in to Mosul (like Jabalus and Dabiq) to end the ISIS rule there under humanitarian / UNSC 2249 pretext.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Oct 18, 2016 9:58:52 AM | 21

Does any of this really matter? Check out: http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

A quote from Orlov: "This view rests on a foundation of circular reasoning: we behave in enlightened ways because we are enlightened, and we are enlightened because, to wit, we behave in enlightened ways. As to why what we consider enlightened is in fact enlightened rather than a question of possibly questionable personal taste—that is not to be discussed: de gustibus non est disputandum."

Orlov was referring to our alleged choices regarding technological things (toys) we have been suckered into believing are essential. I would add that we have also been suckered into thinking that any of this matters ... in the long run the place at which equality exists is probably when the total population of the world is less than a billion. This means we have a long ways to go in ridding ourselves of the excess population. Any volunteers?

Posted by: rg the lg | Oct 18, 2016 10:19:43 AM | 22

@ b "to stop Syria and Russia bombing of civilians"@22 "while R + 6 bombs civilians and hospitals" Irony aside, the US propaganda BS has simplified Aleppo to Syria and Russia targeting civilians and hospitals as part of them Russians them Russians demonizing--anybody with a link to the reality vs. all the BS?

Posted by: boilo | Oct 18, 2016 10:53:28 AM | 23

This is all the unsettled positioning for jurisdictional control between the world's Apex Elites, like Mafia 'families', as the 'New Universal Agenda' comes into being. The average 'Joe' has no idea of the back room dealings, double crosses or inter connectivity of these elites. All the rest of us non-elites are either cannon fodder or Chinese i phone factory workers now. The real targeted populations are those democracy loving peoples in the west who are anaesthetised and herded towards this 'new universal agenda'[re branded from the old NWO] on many fronts and levels simultaneously under such memes as 'global warming' and various 'trade packs' meant to destroy cultures and national identities and structures, all aided and abetted by localized wars as the elites jockey for dominance and positions of control. All these elites agree on the end goal just not who is to be first among equals.

Posted by: BRF | Oct 18, 2016 10:55:22 AM | 24

Just a note on the Israel threatening to attack Iran they did more than just threaten it. Netanyahu gave the order and the IDF and Mossad refused to follow it. A quick search on any of the Israeli paper sites will turn it up.

Posted by: BraveNewWorld | Oct 18, 2016 11:05:44 AM | 25

@ Denis nailed it though a bit OT

MAKE ISRAEL PALESTINE AGAIN

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 18, 2016 11:32:23 AM | 26

Kinan @7

They could ask the Iranians for permission to use the base at Hamadan for the Tu-160s / Tu-22s. The range would be reduce from ~2500km to ~600 km. They cpuld run round the clock bombing runs with enough aircraft and manpower.

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 18, 2016 11:42:57 AM | 27

Andy @9

The problem is that the takfiris have blocked the defined exit routes on their side and snipe at anyone trying to use them.

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 18, 2016 11:44:55 AM | 28

to continue note 24 a bit, this Counterpunch piece states "Syria and Russia are indeed committing war crimes in Aleppo . . ."

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/10/18/stop-the-next-president-from-waging-the-next-war/

What is the reality of these "war crimes" in Aleppo?

Posted by: boilo | Oct 18, 2016 11:55:31 AM | 29

@23 The type of wars fought in 2016 will never kill that many people. You need disease, starvation, for that

Posted by: Cresty | Oct 18, 2016 12:23:04 PM | 30

There is no Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, only Elliot Shimon... -> https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/leaked-nsa-doc-reveals-isis-leader-al-baghdadi-jew-is-us-british-and-israeli-intelligence-asset/

Posted by: LXV | Oct 18, 2016 12:52:49 PM | 31

From RT live feed..

"Russia large & important country, with big military, should be part of solution, not problem - Obama. Published time": 18 Oct, 2016 16:26. Edited time: 18 Oct, 2016 16:36

Fuck you Obomo too late, your hands are dripping with bloods all over. Millions suffers, continue to suffer after you leave in a few months time!

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 12:53:00 PM | 32

Didnt the Americans cut the Euphrates river bridge access from Aleppo to Deir Ezzor? So if the SAA or Russians want to stop them must be by air? Highway of Death V. 2.0?

Posted by: Elwood | Oct 18, 2016 1:18:16 PM | 33

Basically, there are two ways of breaking a resolute defense of a city: destroy the city or leave the opponents a way to recreate. Thus leaving one side of the city "open" is a textbook strategy. The question is what will happen next. In Ramadi, ISIS decided to stay in the city and defended for 10 weeks, in the case of numeric advantage estimated as 13 thousands against 2 thousand. And the city was not in a good shape. However, in Mosul the may decide otherwise, but it is not the ISIS strategy to retreat too easily. These people may be insane, but they are not stupid. They are creating a legend that will take over the Umma, and this legend requires heroic battles.

It is quite possible that ISIS will split forces, with majority retreating to Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa provinces of Syria, and the textbook strategy is not too obstruct them too much. The question is, what comes next. Striking them in the open desert is much easier than giving them more cities to dig in, and American forces are neither inclined nor too able in that respect. "Everybody" knows how to attack compact columns, and ISIS definitely knows how to move around without such columns. Chasing widely dispersed small groups is a job for small slow aircraft and helicopters. The airbase near Palmyra seems more secure than before, in recent weeks SAA was clearing the hilly territory to the north of that base that was used by ISIS to destroy some helicopters few months back. In principle, the airport at Deir ez-Zor could be used if Russia decided to go in in a big way and sent a brigade of paratroopers: this should suffice to clear the perimeters of the base and secure it from short range artillery. A shuttle of flights bringing supplies and weapons is also possible. The chief problem is that the size of Russian forces deployed in Syria so far does not allow to fight on many fronts at once, and this is a war with a hundred fronts.

Putin is rather cautious, and he will not run a war with big price ticket. There seems to be a strange and delicate relationship between Russia and Iran. Seems that Russia committed more weapons, and Iran, more boots and many of the soldiers in those boots became martyrs, so each side thinks that is doing more and the other side is "shirking". But returning to the textbook strategy, there are two cardinal errors to avoid: number one, not having a reserve force, number two, refraining to use the reserve when necessary. Russian surely read the books, and Iranians are quite literate as well, but the question remains: when is the time to send the rest of "budgeted force"?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 18, 2016 1:47:39 PM | 34

@32 "Russia large & important country, with big military, should be part of solution, not problem - Obama. Published time": 18 Oct, 2016 16:26. Edited time: 18 Oct, 2016 16:36

Translation: The Russians need to get with the program.

Posted by: dh | Oct 18, 2016 2:18:55 PM | 35

disturbing news!:
Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:36
Syrian Commander: US, Israel, S. Arabia Helping ISIL to Take Control of Deir Ezzur
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950727000555

BRIDGES
Bing image search has lotsa sub-headings across the top, where you can find maps of specific places, in this case Deir Ez-zor city Syria on the Euphrates (al Furat).


http://www.mappery.com/maps/Deir-Ez-Zor-City-Map.mediumthumb.jpg

This map shows the bridges, including across the parallel tributary river branch there, but no date, & there were supposedly several different ones taken out last few weeks alone.
only 200,000 there supposedly, so no sprawl requiring a huge number of bridges.
https://mw2.google.com/mw-panoramio/photos/medium/18094132.jpg

Posted by: schlub | Oct 18, 2016 2:19:24 PM | 36


big big news mentioned last evng on syrianperspective.com

Egypt leaves Saudi Coalition in Yemen: reports
18/10/2016 1

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/egypt-leaves-saudi-coalition-yemen-reports/

Posted by: schlub | Oct 18, 2016 2:27:53 PM | 37

@29 boilo, 'What is the reality of these "war crimes" in Aleppo?'

This from Zoltan Grossman and Counterpunch together with Code Pink, Democracy Now, and the Intercept buying into the 'noble' White Helmets storyline makes me wonder if it isn't the entire 'left' in to the USA that isn't feckless.

Posted by: jfl | Oct 18, 2016 2:52:25 PM | 38

Thank you @jfl I've just found a long detailed report from a reporter who went to Aleppo in August and this report includes comments from Syrian residents and overall debunks the continuing garbage stream of MSM on on on with Russians and Assad bombing civilians etc. etc.

http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2016/september/23/journey-to-aleppo-exposing-the-truth-buried-under-nato-propaganda/

Posted by: boilo | Oct 18, 2016 3:08:46 PM | 39

another indicator of something big is up is this bunch spouting off about the IRAQI military committing war crimes in their own country.

Torture and executions – Amnesty International warns of revenge attacks in Iraq

Shia paramilitary groups and Iraqi government forces have carried out revenge attacks on Sunni Arabs suspected of supporting ISIL, that’s according to Amnesty International.

In its new report the agency says the attacks amount to war crimes.

The publication called ‘Punished for Daesh’s crimes’ :Displaced Iraqis abused by militias and government forces, exposes a backlash against civilians fleeing ISIL-held territory. It’s based on over 470 witness statements from survivors and aide workers.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=760_1476770400

Posted by: schlub | Oct 18, 2016 3:11:43 PM | 40

It is claimed that Islamic State or a good number of them have left Mosul en route to Deir Azzor, and that this is part of a Saudi/US plan to prolong the war or make that area part of an enclave to be used to split up Syria. This has been in the works for several weeks, one can only assume the Russians/Syrians knew this was going to happen, and have plans worked out to counteract it,[Lavrov acknowledged this] what will the Russians do.

Posted by: harrylaw | Oct 18, 2016 3:12:33 PM | 41

An interview with the SYrian 1st Lady. A very intelligent, compassionate and courageous woman.


https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/full-video-syrias-first-lady-interview-russia-24/

Posted by: Dean | Oct 18, 2016 3:24:02 PM | 42

http://en.alalam.ir/news/1874166
october 18

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns that his country could take "political and military" decisions if ISIS terrorists were redeployed to eastern Syria after being granted a safe passage from Mosul.

“As far as I know, the city is not fully encircled. I hope it’s because they simply couldn’t do it, not because they wouldn’t do it. But this corridor poses a risk that ISIS [Daesh] fighters could flee from Mosul and go to Syria,” Lavrov said on Tuesday.

Posted by: schlub | Oct 18, 2016 3:26:14 PM | 43

Posted by: V. Arnold | Oct 18, 2016 7:47:15 AM | 8

The gods be good: Niccolò Machiavelli would be so proud.
The intracacies of this game board are almost beyond comprehension; at least mine.
This is likely why the U.S. rarely achieves its stated goals; but then those goals may (probably are) also be a diversion from the true goals...

Generally, I believe that these 'intricacies' are very
crude and near random.
The reason lies within the fact that all these 'diversions' are indeed not even diversions, but part of the symphony of abandonment that emanates from the management floors of the U.S.A. Corporation.

In order to understand what is happening, one must possess the ability to imagine the unimaginable consequences that come to mind. While most consequences will only show after the process is well advanced, 'virtual reality', or as I call it 'Universal Reality', will help to find out how a mind works, that leaves in its path widespread pain, discomfort, anger, disgust, death, starvation, crime, violence and despair.

The implementation of a Corporate Global Management'- "How To Create And Use Terror To Overthrow Restive Nations To Install One Corporate Planetary Management In Less Than 25 Years" is in full swing and even the nasty parts of the war of terror serve an agenda. Mind Control.

The goal is one 'corporate global administrative board' - making any kind of 'Nationalism' moot. Humankind is prepared for 'Blade Runner' and 'Terminator' turning reality.

'The People' (globally) have not been of any even slightest concern to the corporate board.

When it comes to 'follow the money', one will discover that ALL sides/parts/particles are making a killing of terror and war.

I'd take Follow The Money any day to shed light on the shadiest happenings.

Posted by: Nottheonly1 | Oct 18, 2016 3:33:08 PM | 44

@jfl | Oct 18, 2016 2:52:25 PM | 39

Excellent rebuttal!

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 3:38:40 PM | 45

Special forces embedded with jihadists inside Syrian territories is a serious matter. What, for example, would the purpose be inside Aleppo if not providing assistance to the indiscrimate shelling into the other areas of the city? What is the purpose of embedding these soldiers inside al-Qaeda forces at all? That would be interesting to hear, should such embedded forces be identified and detained.

Posted by: jayc | Oct 18, 2016 3:46:27 PM | 46

There's a lot of crap being posted on this thread. The ISIS fighters in Mosul are not going to do a runner to Deir ez-Zor. According to reports, most are locals, see my comment @2. They will either fight or not for Mosul. If they fight, it will be be because conquest by the Peshmerga, or the Shi'i soldiers of the Iraq army, provokes fear. They are quite justified in this fear. Kurds are aliens. The Iraqi Shi'a, since the Samarra bombing in 2006, have become quite sectarian, and under Maliki, there's been a history of anti-Sunni prejudice. I've heard all the details from Sunni Iraqis. There haven't been offers of compromise from the Baghdad government, probably because the Shi'a support won't accept it.

The question remains for them: will Baghdad reconquest be better or worse than ISIS? At any rate, a substantial proportion think ISIS is better, to judge by the resistance to the US-organised advance.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 18, 2016 3:50:20 PM | 47

The Russians comprehend:

https://www.rt.com/news/363137-mosul-isis-syria-lavrov/

"Commenting the ongoing siege of the Iraqi city, Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday: “As far as I know, the city is not fully encircled. I hope it’s because they simply couldn’t do it, not because they wouldn’t do it. But this corridor poses a risk that Islamic State [IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL] fighters could flee from Mosul and go to Syria.

“We will be evaluating the situation and take decisions of both political and military nature if this happens,” he added. “I hope the US-led coalition, which is actively engaged in the operation to take Mosul, will take it into account.”


Russian military builds new runway in east Syria as ISIS flees Mosul

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-builds-new-runway-east-syria-isis-flees-mosul/

"HOMS, SYRIA (10:00 P.M.) - The Russian Air Force has built a new runway at the T-4 Military Airport in eastern Homs after reports of several Islamic State fighters fleeing the large Iraqi city of Mosul for Syria.

Prior to the Islamic State's massive counter-offensive in the Al-Sha'er region of east Homs, the Russian Air Force was actively using the T-4 Military Airport as a command center to advise the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the area.

However, due to the increased security risks near the T-4 Airport, the Russian military advisors moved their command post to Palmyra and most of their aircraft to the Hmaymim Airport in west Latakia.

With ISIS fleeing Mosul for eastern Syria, the Russian Air Force has made the decision to beef up their air presence around the Deir Ezzor Governorate in anticipation for this influx of terrorists."

Posted by: Dean | Oct 18, 2016 4:01:12 PM | 48

Assange/Wikileaks framed in CIA plot?

Assange accused of being a pedophile and russian spy...by "dating" site.

wikileaks.org/Background-and-Documents-on-Attempts-to-Frame-Assange-as-a-Pedophile-and.html?update2

Posted by: Laboren | Oct 18, 2016 4:06:07 PM | 49

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950727001125
Iraqi Source: ISIL Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Dead
"Al-BaghdadiIraqi Source: ISIL Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi Dead had been severely wounded in the Al-Anbar battle in Western Iraq last month, and his wounds were so lethal that he could not at all move freely," a local Iraqi source told the Arabic service of the Russian Sputnik news agency on Tuesday.
The source said despite long treatment in Mosul, the general health conditions of the ISIL leader deteriorated due to "a deep abdominal cut, damage to his liver and crippling wounds in his left limbs".
The source said Al-Baghdad lost his life in the town of Al-Be'aaj some 100km (60 miles) West of Mosul near the border with Syria, but his death is concealed to avoid the loss of morale among ISIL ranks who are faced with a tough war in Mosul and Syria these days.
There have been numerous reports on the fate or location of the ISIL leader in the last two years. As the war ravages over the self-proclaimed capital of the terrorist cult, Mosul, in Western Iraq, Arab media sources said yesterday al-Baghdadi had fled to Raqqa in Syria before the Iraqi army started its operations in Mosul, but his wife was taken.
According to Iraq's Sumeriya News, local sources in Nineveh quoted defected ISIL leaders as saying that al-Baghdadi has managed to escape from Mosul to Raqqa, but his wife has been arrested.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 18, 2016 4:22:16 PM | 50

By the way, on the Peshmerga role in this offensive. The economy of the KRG government in Erbil is in a state of collapse, mainly because of the decline in the oil price, and the Kurds having sold their oil outside the agreement with Baghdad, which led to Baghdad stopping their subsidies. The Peshmerga were not paid for months, so did nothing. Then recently there was a Kurdish report that the US had agreed to pay the salaries of the Peshmerga for ten years. Whether one believes it or not, evidently something happened.

Evidently you have to ask the question: what would make a Peshmerga risk death to conquer a people who dislike them, and whose territory they cannot keep for Kurdistan? The Kurdish history of occupying Northern Iraq after 2003 didn't work out well. Well, a salary to feed your family is one thing. But not enough to justify a large death toll in fighting into a city, the same in Mosul, as has proved to be the case in Raqqa.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 18, 2016 4:26:17 PM | 51

@32, Jack Smith

Russia large & important country, with big military,

This is not exactly what Obama said about Russian military.

Posted by: SmoothieX12 | Oct 18, 2016 4:36:13 PM | 52

"By placing the missiles as a threat “against military action” by other countries in Syria, Russia has raised “the stakes of confrontation,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Sunday.

"By placing the missiles as a threat “against ILLEGAL military action” by other countries ILLEGALLY in Syria, Russia has raised “the stakes of confrontation,” Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Sunday."

There; I fixed it for you John.

Posted by: Dean | Oct 18, 2016 4:37:46 PM | 53

@SmoothieX12 | Oct 18, 2016 4:36:13 PM | 53

"This is not exactly what Obama said about Russian military.

Please enlighten me exactly what Obomo mean.... snip passage from RT . Can you trust a fucking pathological liar?

President Obama says Russia is a large and important country whose military is “second only” to that of America........ "We think that Russia is a large, important country with a military that is second only to ours and has to be a part of the solution on the world stage rather than part of the problem," ....

https://www.rt.com/usa/363208-obama-russia-military-trump/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 5:14:51 PM | 54

@22 Jackrabbit

This thorny question leads us to the realization that Mosul doesn't have to fall. The current 'fight' is really just a morality play whereby the Assad must go! Coalition appears to fight the good fight against ISIS while R+6 bombs hospitals and civilians.

Thus, for the time being, a Mosul "stalemate" would serves the interests of both Turkey and USA. The rationale for leaving the Western approaches open would then be NOT to allow ISIS to escape(it is said that many already have) but to allow Mosul to be reinforced as necessary.

Indeed. A "stalemate" also serves the interests of Russia, Iran and dare I say.. Israel.

6 years of war in Syria and well over ten years in Iraq -- with no endgame in sight.

Oded yinon is still a go. Russian and Iranian elites were given a choice:

1) Escalate military involvement to the point where victory is achievable; or

2) Continue playing footsie with Western 'partners', making oneself rich and important whilst chasing the Zio-Luciferian Dream.

Imagine 4 more years of 'managing' this conflict 'partnered' to the Killary Whitehouse. That's the plan and that's what we're gonna get. How can be there be any doubt given the particulars? All sides are effectively consolidating the positions of junior partners, Syria for Russia and Sunnistan for the USA. All sides reap benefits from the prolongation of this conflict. Russia of Putin may want peace but having the Shia corridor blocked indefinitely is hardly bad for Russian energy companies, or weapons manufacturers, or especially for the Anglophile Zionist Russian Elites who will continue to get invited to the best Anglozionist parties in London, New York, Toronto and etc.

Posted by: C I eh? | Oct 18, 2016 5:19:03 PM | 55

okie farmer@ 51

Could the reported death of ISIL Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi lead to ISIL/ISIS/Daesh being renamed and "rehabilitated" by the west as freedom fighters? Seem this is what has been done following the murder of Ben Laden after which Al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria became Al Nusra and then Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (Conquest of Syria Front).

Posted by: Krollchem | Oct 18, 2016 5:43:54 PM | 56

MSM coverage of Mosul is absolutely worthless. I feel like I'm reading about the local High School football championship matches.

Brief, unbiased, thoughtful coverage of the events as seen through Iraq Arabic language media sources: Daesh Daily. I get more news in one of their 1000 word daily reports than I can get from 1000 MSM sources. The view is from inside Iraq as seen by various local media - it's not meant to be comprehensive coverage. Still, a must-read for anyone trying to understand events inside Iraq. Even the rumors are great: ISIS carting off the contents of the Mosul central bank in refrigerator trucks!

About: DaeshDaily is a daily update on ISIS activities compiled from Arabic language sources, supplemented by local contacts in Iraq, with explanatory comments by Iraq specialists.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 5:48:00 PM | 57

On the Iraqi role in the offensive. The Iraqi troops are Shi'a, the majority of the country. They are supported by a Shi'i militia, al-hashd al-sha'bi. They are still forty km or more south of Mosul.

Under al-Maliki, Baghdad was very anti-Sunni, and things haven't changed. I met the Sunni assistant governor of Salah al-Din, that is Tikrit and its area, last year in 2015. His feeling of being in defeat was evident, although he talked a lot about regionalisation of budgets.

The question is, with a Shi'a army arriving from the south, and the Peshmerga from the east, neither of whom are particularly interested in killing themselves to defeat a people they can't dominate in the long term, what's the point in making an effort? If the Muslawis give up and admit that ISIS was wrong, fine. If, however, they decide, or some of them, that Kurdish/Shi'a domination is unacceptable, then we're in for a fight which will extend long beyond the victory date of 8th November.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 18, 2016 5:49:58 PM | 58

DaeshDaily doesn't reveal its origins, but Sunni Arab Iraqi seems to be it.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 18, 2016 6:08:06 PM | 59

45

Aren't the Leviathan gas fields in Gaza's offshore territorial waters? Oh, wait, Palestine never existed, Palestinians are all cockroaches, we won, you lost, it's just business, get over it, now get off our Black Hills gold discovery, lol, and start down that Trail of Tears! USAryan, Canadian, and Australian citizens have no business messing in the Israeli ethnic-genocide of Palestine and Ukraine.

The Crown will accept all those refugees on behalf of the Just Doing God's Work folks, then disappear the tax monies meant for social programs, the way Clinton Foundation disappeared some 88% of their donations. The One Party of Mil.Gov.Fed.Biz is disappearing your last life savings meant for health and human services faster than Israel is disappearing Gaza and Egypt's natural gas resources, so why are we so obsessed with that theater, when the whole kaboodle is about to blow up in US-UK-CN-AU?

30 more days and they're going to 'pull it', then blame it all on election fraud and the chillblains. 100 more days, then the velvet glove comes off the iron claw, whether you take Red pill or Blue pill.

Posted by: chipnik | Oct 18, 2016 6:08:09 PM | 60

@PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 5:48:00 PM | 58

Thanks, now can fact check events in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
The last time you posted access to Al Jazeera via eastafro.com.
Not available unless you have a TV and scribe to cable.

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 6:09:26 PM | 61

Quote from RT, "If Islamic State fighters are allowed to leave Mosul and go to Syria, Russia would take the appropriate military and political decisions, Sergey Lavrov warned."

According to Fars, apparently, that is just what Russia et al did. Russia, Syria and Iraq closed the Iraq-Syria border and bombed the ISIL mercenaries from Mosul who were trying to cross over to Syria.
The border is sealed shut.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950727001081

Posted by: Lea | Oct 18, 2016 6:16:23 PM | 62

54

By placing defensive missiles in Syria, Russia is doing legally (at Assad's invitation) what NATO is doing illegally, (after it was agreed they would not install 'defensive' missiles and targeting radars in former Soviet bloc countries). The difference, I suppose is the S300s work, while Patriots are a shuck-and-jive left over from Bush the Lessor nee Reagan's failed Star Wars.

In pre-scripted tests with known launch coordinates, times and trajectories, Patriots still miss 50% of the time on the incoming ballistic phase, so probably why they must be installed in E EU on the boost-phase side, but then with C&C delays, they cannot catch up with their soon-MIRVing targets.

Basically, the West has no defense, other than automated robotic global thermonuclear retaliation, which is why the Pentagonall Church must be renamed War Department and National Insecurity State.

"Then someone will set the spark off, and we will all be blown away." Tra-la!

Posted by: chipnik | Oct 18, 2016 6:23:06 PM | 63

Yonatan @27,

Re: russians flying out of Iran. They would have to overfly Iraq or Turkey. I'm not sure that permission would be given.

Posted by: sillybill | Oct 18, 2016 6:31:24 PM | 64

thanks b.. excellent coverage.. i am too busy to properly read, but FWIW i see '''''charlesdrake''' is still getting thru @21, 35 and 45..

psychohistorian.. thanks for what you said on the previous thread..

Posted by: james | Oct 18, 2016 6:33:38 PM | 65

Krollchem, I don't if that true.

Posted by: okie farmer | Oct 18, 2016 6:57:34 PM | 66

sillybill @65 The Russian bombers flew from Hamadan airbase Iran not so long ago and bombed Syria. The only dispute involved some Iranian lawmakers who felt they should have been more fully consulted.

Posted by: harrylaw | Oct 18, 2016 7:01:15 PM | 67

Good thing someone asked the real experts for an unbiased estimate of this Mosul operation.
However, that's obviously not the correct color flag the frenchies are famous for flying shown at the top of the article.

French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned Tuesday that the battle to retake the Iraqi city of Mosul from ISIL group could take “months”.

“It could be a long battle, it’s not a blitzkrieg… It’s a lengthy affair (lasting) several weeks, maybe months,” he told reporters in Paris a day after the offensive began.

France to Host Talks Thursday on Mosul’s Future
http://english.almanar.com.lb/68858

Posted by: schlub | Oct 18, 2016 7:22:40 PM | 68

sillybill @65

Russia is supplying Iraq with Su25s and the latest Mi28 helicopters. Early on there was an Iraqi request for Russia to help Iraq in the same way it is helping Syria, probably at a wish level rather than inter-state agreement as Russia would not bite off more than it can chew.

As harrylaw said, Russia has done this before. Indeed, Russia would not be in Syria in the first place without fly over rights from Iran and Iraq. That is how they managed to set up Hymeim under the eys of the AngloZionists. That is how the cruise missiles got from the Caspian to Syria.

The immense amount of dimplomatic effort required to set up those access rights, in utmost secrecy, is probably one of the reasons it took Russia so long to actually get going in Syria. Russia woulsd not have gone in if the logistics were not right.

Remember that amateurs worry about strategy/tactics, professionals worry about logistics.

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 18, 2016 7:29:08 PM | 69

sillybill @65.

The construction of the runway at T-4, ~60 km west of Palmyra may obviate the need for the Iranian base to some degree. In addition, if the Russians are serious about T-4, they will ship in S-400s, further extending the de facto no-fly zone. This currently extends almost to Deir ez Zor. With T-4 active, it will extend well beyond Deir ez Zor covering almost all of east Syria. This will check-mate the Anglo-Zionist plan to use the 9000+ takfiris released from Mosuls to create a caliphate in Syria east of the Euphrates.

Posted by: Yonatan | Oct 18, 2016 7:36:09 PM | 70

Laguerre@60 - I was about to ask you if you had any insight to the editors, listed as Ashraf Al-Khalidi & Dr. Thomas Renahan. There is (in my small world) a very limited set of sites with Sunni Arab-originated/oriented news in Iraq. I understand why that's the case in Iraq today, but it's unfortunate nonetheless.

Jack Smith@62 - "...Thanks, now can fact check events in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere..." I understand what you're saying, Jack, but for readers who may not be familiar with the situation, one should keep in mind that a good dose of critical thinking and skepticism needs to be employed. The authors of DaeshDaily do not try to represent their bits of reporting from other Arabic-language sources as authoritative or 'fact'. It's items that they thought were relevant, interesting or insightful that were reported in one of the publications/sites they survey. The authors themselves often write comments questioning the veracity of certain claims made in the reports. The value (in my eyes) is the translation that I'm never going to get with mechanical Google (or any other) translation engine and the author's focus on a unique and relatively inaccessible (to me) set of sources.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 7:36:31 PM | 71

Jack Smith@62 - "...The last time you posted access to Al Jazeera via eastafro.com. Not available unless you have a TV and scribe to cable..."

Not sure if you're in the U.S. or not Jack, but the reason I originally posted the link is because Al Jazeera English is effectively censored in the U.S. - it didn't matter if you have TV or cable, you can't get it. Satellite - not sure. The powers that be only allowed us to see the dumbed-down Al Jazeera America, which (mostly) sucked. It has since gone out of business. See: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera/posts/10151870616208690

Al Jazeera itself changed quite a bit in the last few years. They use to have rather outstanding coverage of the Middle East that illustrated how completely worthless western MSM coverage of the region had become.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 7:52:03 PM | 72

Yonatan and harrylaw,
Yes, I remember the previous overflights.
But right now the US military is supporting a major Iraqi army offensive. They must have some conditions for all the support. IF the US's strategy is to kick IS out of Mosul towards Syria - to help with the breakup of Syria (and that's a big IF, but it's the theory we seem to be working with at the moment) - they surely don't want the Russians wiping out their proxies before the job is done. Right now there is a defacto NFZ over western/central Syria enforced by the Russians. Would not the US forces maintain a similar zone over the northern Iraqi battlespace? I would think that US force protection doctrine would demand it.

And as for logistics - the US is in a better position. Russia can only resupply thru 2 opposite points, 1 being from the Med directly thru Syria, the other being thru Iran by overflying northern Iraq. Which is a route that can be interfered with.

But of course, I AM an amateur, without access to inside information. I do hope I'm wrong and IS gets pounded from all sides.

Posted by: sillybill | Oct 18, 2016 8:08:31 PM | 73

Yonatan@71,
Yes, that seems more reasonable to me. They will still have to stick everything on a boat and ship it to the med which will take a while. Unless they can fit it all in a jumbo air transport.
You got to kind of wonder why they haven't done that already? I guess you can't just order up a mobile air defense system from the local hardware store. I wonder how much an S300 or 400 system costs?

Posted by: sillybill | Oct 18, 2016 8:18:22 PM | 74

@75 Iran ALLEGEDLY paid 900 million for 4 S 300 systems. But there was probably some haggling. Missiles cost a million a piece.

Posted by: dh | Oct 18, 2016 8:26:59 PM | 75

Al Masdar News (pro-SAA) reports

HOMS, SYRIA (10:00 P.M.) - The Russian Air Force has built a new runway at the T-4 Military Airport in eastern Homs after reports of several Islamic State fighters fleeing the large Iraqi city of Mosul for Syria.

Prior to the Islamic State's massive counter-offensive in the Al-Sha'er region of east Homs, the Russian Air Force was actively using the T-4 Military Airport as a command center to advise the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) in the area.

However, due to the increased security risks near the T-4 Airport, the Russian military advisors moved their command post to Palmyra and most of their aircraft to the Hmaymim Airport in west Latakia.

=====

T-4 is about 20 kilometers west of Palmyra. During Palmyra offensive Russians used it as a helicopter base, but ISIS destroyed five helicopters on the ground. Now the base will also be ready for planes, the the nearest mountain ridges are under control, so new ISIS forces will be greeted by appropriate air force. If ISIS could be stopped by planes alone, it would not be operating by now. A long distance plane cannot hover over the ground for hours to hunt individual vehicles. KSA reliance on distant air bases is one reason for their lack of effectiveness. It is easy to select buildings and bomb by coordinates, given expensive toys that they have, but combat support is an entire different story. They move, they hide, they do not try to "play fair". Even so, there was also a report that Iraqi planes bombed an ISIS column that was retreating West.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 18, 2016 8:38:28 PM | 76

@77 I saw this report...

http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/warplanes-destroy-large-isis-convoy-trying-escape-raqqa/?

What makes you think they were Iraqi planes? Assuming it's true.

Posted by: dh | Oct 18, 2016 8:43:20 PM | 77

dh | Oct 18, 2016 8:43:20 PM | 78
If the video is what it claims to be then it was Iraqi helicopters that did the business just as it was with the convoy leaving Fallujah earlier this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eg-4zFGr6-E

Posted by: Ghostship | Oct 18, 2016 9:31:31 PM | 78

@78 dh.. thanks.. assuming it is true and the picture isn't from some other time and place... one wonders given the advance broadcast of isis relocating to raqqa just who is yanking whose chain here.. on the other hand, i suspect iran and russia would be on top of this as much as possible too and iraq could be in on the agenda too.. hard to know with uncle scam hanging around with the ready made propaganda to lead others astray.

Posted by: james | Oct 18, 2016 9:35:05 PM | 79

SmoothieX12 | Oct 18, 2016 4:36:13 PM | 53

This is not exactly what Obama said about Russian military.

What Obama did say just shows that he's pond-life.
"We think that Russia is a large, important country with a military that is second only to ours and has to be a part of the solution on the world stage rather than part of the problem," he said. "But their behavior has undermined international norms and international rules in ways we have to call them out on."

From the president of the country that has done more in the last sixty five years to undermine "international norms and international rules" than any other that is just so sickening.

Posted by: Ghostship | Oct 18, 2016 9:42:22 PM | 80

@81 ghostship.. ditto your sentiment.. bullshit artist as leader of the unfree world.. oblama..

Posted by: james | Oct 18, 2016 9:53:56 PM | 81

Oh where oh where can DEFCON be?
Is it at 1, or 2, or three?

Read this: http://empireexposed.blogspot.com/

Then denigrate it ... I'm sure some know-it-all knows it all and can prove the issue is bullshit (well proof insofar as their bias will allow).

In the event you don't know about DEF CON, you can get a passably decent review here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON

Word is that we are still at DEF CON 3; but a neighbor who is tech support at our local air force base let it slip that the rumor was we were on the cusp of a DEF CON 4 ... and that encrypted traffic was at an all time high.

Hmm. Makes all of the above seem a tad bit silly!

Posted by: rg the lg | Oct 18, 2016 11:09:51 PM | 82

al bagdadi is an actor
he is not the leader
because his organisation is fakery
pixels sound and words like rita katz site intel and amaq news.
a dimona sim
shimon elliot
simon elliot my last post deleted he is a mossad
al bagdaddi lives then dies then lives again ground hog days
sorry i did not know it was secret
word deletion is so killery
not alabama
unless alabama is nsa
information gatherings

Posted by: c drake | Oct 18, 2016 11:39:02 PM | 83

@PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 7:52:03 PM | 72

Al Jazeera and DaeshDaily provide alternate fact checks. Al Jazeera nowhere near when it first came online and rarely goes there.

I'm not quick and sharp like you, b and many here. Whether we agree 10% or 99% are immaterial. Lived in poor rough neighborhoods in Central Valley CA, my extensive traveled around the world plus ethnic background gimmie different perspective views, but more in the same sound bites to rg the lg. Thank you :-)

Posted by: Jack Smith | Oct 18, 2016 11:53:25 PM | 84

How do you start a fight when your opponent doesn't want a fight with you? You force it... you create fear... you create fear and sell another stinkin' pile of lies til the body count meets your project goals.


What the CIA Does When The Other Side Won't Fight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=289&v=2IiS6Fehd44

Posted by: c drake | Oct 18, 2016 11:53:42 PM | 85

Of late, Erdogan is constantly repeating the refrain "we'll be at the table" when talking about Mosul. He seems to think that the situation in Iraq is nearing a negotiated end ... interesting.

Two great battles Aleppo and Mosul and Turkey's out of the equation in both (except under the auspices of the coalition). Snubbed and isolated it seems by both RF and US.

As for Erdogan's claims that Mosul is historically Turkey's, it's a nationalst rant that he renews each month, until last week it was the Greek Islands, now its Mosul. Wouldn't pay it much mind. Distractive exaggeration is all it is.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Oct 19, 2016 12:37:12 AM | 86

Things White Helmets willingly ignore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSNt_0nq9ek

Posted by: xyz | Oct 19, 2016 7:20:52 AM | 87

"We think that Russia is a large, important country with a military that is second only to ours and has to be a part of the solution on the world stage rather than part of the problem," he said. "But their behavior has undermined international norms and international rules in ways we have to call them out on."

From the president of the country that has done more in the last sixty five years to undermine "international norms and international rules" than any other that is just so sickening.
Posted by: Ghostship | Oct 18, 2016 9:42:22 PM | 80

Obama is almost correct: USA did not undermine international norms and international rules in ways USA had to call upon itself, unlike Russia that USA called upon. But did USA have to call upon Russia? Perhaps. That hints the existence of overlords dictating USA what to do -- and many folks here agree.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Oct 19, 2016 8:47:52 AM | 88

@54, Jack Smith

Please enlighten me exactly what Obomo mean.... snip passage from RT . Can you trust a fucking pathological liar

1. I don't trust anything what comes out of American establishment because it has no credibility left.
2. Obama compared apples to oranges. One can not compare Russian and US Armed Forces--two very different philosophies and doctrines are behind both. Two very different designs, with US Army existing primarily for expeditionary warfare, Russian Armed Forces are tasked with defending Russia and her people. Unless one can prove to me that mighty Mexico is secretly planning, in pincer movement, to surround and take Chicago by the force of two tank armies, I don't know. Last time what was a proto-US Army fought in defense of its motherland was in 1812 in what can only be described as battalion level engagements. So, Obama's "comparisons" are as relevant to what Russian Armed Forces do as my cold is relevant to quantum mechanics. Obama made another snafu, which, by now, is the only thing expected from this guy.

Posted by: SmoothieX12 | Oct 19, 2016 9:03:03 AM | 89

Anyone notice this pattern of engaging in questionable activity covertly (like flying ISIS out of Iraq for Syria for months and months now) --> followed by a few hints to the press that the U.S./the west is somehow considering it --> followed by some mild objections by someone else --> followed by U.S. denials that it will do anything of the sort (because we're already done by this point)?

In six months when the fighting is still raging with ISIS in eastern Syria, someone will accuse the U.S. of having transported ISIS there, and then we'll have to suffer through another State Department presser with spokesweasel John Kirby feebly denying the U.S. ever considered/approved/executed such plans and the entire idea is just preposterous (so shut up Matt Lee or the State Department have you nailgun suicided).

I guess we're at the 'mild objections' part, so they must just about be done with the head-chopper relocation program:

Iraq urges U.S.-led coalition to prevent Islamic State escape to Syria

Posted by: PavewayIV | Oct 19, 2016 10:32:15 AM | 90

U.N. claims 900 civilians have crossed over from Mosul into Syria, and are being cared for in refugee camps.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/battle-mosul-hundreds-civilians-flee-syria-u-n-says-n668701


Also, 2 more Syrian bridges on the Euphrates have been struck by coalition aircraft.


http://en.alalam.ir/news/1874663

Posted by: Wwinsti | Oct 19, 2016 11:46:38 AM | 91

@ Wwinsti | 91

U.N. claims 900 civilians have crossed over from Mosul into Syria, and are being cared for in refugee camps.

Cunning move on US part. Everybody knows that US/Saudis will be moving ISIS from Mosul to Syria, and big ISIS convoy was already bombed in Iraq yesterday. How do you prevent bombing of terrorists asset by Iraq/Russia/Syria? Move them under UN umbrella as civilian refugees from Mosul to the camp in Syria, from there they'll be transported wherever US wants terrorists to be. If Russia bombs them, not only US, but UN will also scream bloody murder over "poor civilian refugees killed by bloody Russians."

As I said, cunning. How do I know its not actual civilians (or not all of them)? Starting with a point Iraq has much bigger safe zones than Syria, so whats the point of transporting Iraqis to a Syria's war zone? That makes zero sense from safety and legal point of view, in Iraq they would have government's support, in Syria these US/UN operated camps are illegal. Plus since in those refugee camps there are civilians too, and thats the second part of US cunning plan - create terrorists safe havens under guise of refugee camps in Syria, and some civilians there will be used as human shields to protect the terrorists. Turkey is doing that in the North, Israel in the South, US in the East.

Posted by: Harry | Oct 19, 2016 4:25:05 PM | 92

Posted by: PavewayIV | Oct 18, 2016 7:36:31 PM | 71

I googled the DaeshDaily editors to see if I could add something. They're pretty well hidden. Ashraf Al-Khalidi is the pseudonym of an Iraqi who authored an article back in 2006, on this sort of topic. Not a shi'i or Kurdish sort of name, so Sunni probably. Thomas Renahan is on Academia.edu as an independent scholar, but doesn't have a bio, or publications. Interested in conflict and Kurds, so probably the same person, but they are only hashtags he follows. So the only evidence is their writings.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 19, 2016 4:36:30 PM | 93

Harry @ 92
Your post is most interesting when taken alongside shlub's @ 40. Amnesty doing some prep work for their masters.

Posted by: Benu | Oct 19, 2016 8:35:34 PM | 94

OCT 19
i think there's the 3rd prez 'debate' 2night.
we'll see if they can pump the wildebeeste full of drugs to keep it upright the whole time, just short of its evil eyeballs turning turtle rolling over in its head.
Remember, doping is an exact science, perfected over decades, what with all the pro athlete customers in every niche, even cycling. especially cycling.

Still haven't seen or heard from the french, pretending like they're over Libya, at their Kobani base.
unless this was them.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-regard-belgian-strikes-aleppo-support-nusra-no-criticism-follows/

"If no one comments on it, then we will conclude that the real concern is not about the plight of Aleppo’s civilians," the diplomat added. "This media buzz is aimed at protecting Jabhat al-Nusra (terrorist group outlawed in Russia) and preventing the Russian Aerospace Forces from eliminating the terrorist groups in Aleppo."

"There can be no other explanation. If no direct condemnation of the US-led coalition, the Belgian Air Force actions follows, then we will have to consider it as an attempt to shield the terrorist groups active on Syria’s territory," Zakharova stressed.

Posted by: schlub | Oct 19, 2016 8:55:17 PM | 95

@92 harry... i don't think it is all that cunning on the usa's part myself... only a fool would be able to miss the game here.. there is no reason to send refugees into syria, and anyone who tries to make sense of that is full of it - the usa in particular.. they could just as easily go to turkey, or erbil, so going to syria only makes sense based on the long term agenda of dividing up syria and even an idiot can see the game here..

thanks for your comments and everyone else's too..

Posted by: james | Oct 19, 2016 10:38:41 PM | 96

http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950728001677

- In September 2013, Israel’s Ambassador to the US Michael Oren said, “The greatest danger to Israel is by the strategic arc that extends from Tehran, to Damascus to Beirut. We always wanted Bashar Assad to go, we always preferred the bad guys who weren’t backed by Iran.”

He said this was the case even if the “bad guys” were affiliated with Al-Qaeda. He also said Israel would prefer a victory by ISIL over continuation of the Iranian-backed government in Syria. The cynical and dangerous realpolitik is clear. ISIL was co-founded by Washington and allies to pit Muslims against each other and to protect Israel.

This rather notorious line of policy by the White House and the Pentagon has made the Russians to prepare a runway in the Eastern parts of Homs province that neighbors Deir Ezzur to start an increasing number of combat sorties to strike the long columns of ISIL vehicles that are coming from Iraq's Mosul to Deir Ezzur and Raqqa in hundreds.

Posted by: schlub | Oct 19, 2016 11:39:10 PM | 97

"This is not the way our democracy works. We've been around for 240 years, we've had free and fair elections, we've accepted the outcomes when we may not have liked them and
**that is what must be accepted**,"
Clinton said.

-- from Orwell's 1984

"Don't you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought? In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible, because there will be no words in which to express it. Every concept that can ever be needed will be expressed by exactly one word, with its meaning rigidly defined and all its subsidiary meanings rubbed out and forgotten."

You will vote, and then you will go back to your work camp, unless you work at the Ministry, in which case there is no need to vote, as in either outcome, you life and your occupation will be completely unaffected.

Posted by: TheRealDonald | Oct 20, 2016 12:32:44 AM | 98

Not sure what to make of this request from the US concerning "new defense systems".

From Sputniknews.com

The United States and Russia need to look into updating memorandum of understanding for flights deconfliction in Syria amid deployment of new defense systems to the region, US Central Command Commander Gen. Joseph Votel stated on Wednesday.

Recently, Russia deployed the S-300 air defense system in Syria's port city of Tartus in addition to S-400 currently stationed at Russia's Hmeymim airbase in the Latakia province. "As we move forward, and additional systems, other systems are introduced into the area, that highlights the importance of this effort and means that we have to continue to stay in a dialogue on this, we have to look at how we update our deconfliction methods to make sure that everybody can stay safe," Votel said.

So, is it the s-300 and its purported ability to shoot down ballistic missiles that has them wanting a new hotline, or is it the pantsirs, which are in the hands of Syrians that has them worried?

https://sputniknews.com/military/201610191046512712-centcom-russia-syria/

Posted by: Wwinsti | Oct 20, 2016 12:49:13 AM | 99

#99 Wwinsti

I'm no A2/AD pro like some other posters are, just a keen amateur/wannabe, but I am pretty sure this has to do with all of them. They collaborate and help close each other's gaps. They much complicate any potential first strike against the complex. Of course they are upset.

I like how b's suggested Pantsirs for reinforcing Deir az Zor in a previous post. The more I researched, the more the system seemed extremely suitable for forward deployment. It can't reach far, but it can reach high enough (50,000 ft+). Simple passive guidance, relying on the ground unit radar. Which allows for an unusually light weight of the SA missile compared to the maximum range (under 100kg each) as well as greater simplicity, increasing robustness of such missiles. Which all in all provides excellent characteristics for resupply via air drop. Just great for an deployment that can't benefit from a solid land route resupply.

Posted by: Quadriad | Oct 20, 2016 1:29:29 AM | 100

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