Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 13, 2016

The "Race To Raqqa" Is Quickly Intensifying

This is a look at the larger picture of forces developing around Syria. Several foreign armies are aggregating at the Syrian borders with the intent to invade Syria and to occupy its eastern part. But before we dive into that, a short look at the curious situation developing in the north-west.

Near Azaz the U.S. ally Turkey is currently shelling (video) the U.S. ally YPG which is fighting the CIA supported FSA.


map by AFP(?) - bigger

The Syrian-Kurdish YPG troops were heavily supported by the U.S. in their fight against the Islamic State in north-eastern Syria. Under U.S. tutelage they united with Arab anti-IS fighters under the label Syrian Democratic Forces.

In north-west Syria the SDF has used the recent success of the Syrian army against Jihadis in the area to take northern parts of the Azaz corridor which once connected Aleppo to Turkey. That corridor is held by a mixture of al-Qaeda Jihadist from Jabhat al-Nusra, "Turkmen" Islamists from various Turk speaking countries and local Islamist gangs supported by the CIA under the label Free Syrian Army. All three get money and weapons from Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

The Syrian army is moving north and south from the red strip in the map. The SDF is moving east from the Kurdish enclave around Afrin. During the last days the SDF, supported by the Russian airforce, captured the Minnagh airbase which was held by al-Qaeda aligned forces. The SDF then proceeded north to take Azaz, the last major town the Turkish supported Islamist are holding in the area.

Turkey today used 155mm artillery to fire from Turkey against SDF positions on Minnagh airbase and around Azaz. There will be Turkish special forces observers in Syria to direct the fire.

The NATO member Turkey is shelling the YPG, which is backed by Russia and the U.S., and the SDF which is backed by the U.S. for attacking the FSA and Islamists who are backed by the U.S., Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

A nice little clusterfuck the smart (not) girls and boys around Obama created.

But as described here two days ago in The Race To Raqqa Is On, a much bigger clusterfuck is currently in the making in and all around Syria.

The Russian and Syrian airforce will likely respond to the Turkish attack with an intensified bombing of positions held by Turkish proxy forces in Syria. Those forces just received new artillery ammunition and new TOW anti-tank missiles.

There is yet unconfirmed news that this situation will escalate very fast:

The Int'l Spectator @intlspectator
BREAKING: Turkish official says there will be a 'massive escalation' in Syria over next 24 hours.

The Turkish Foreign Minister said today that the fight against ISIS must include (Turkish) ground operations.

The Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian allies are determined to liberate the whole country from the foreign supported terrorists and the Islamic State. The want to keep the country united.

The aim of outside forces, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE, the U.S., Britain, France is to occupy east Syria to gain political concession from the Syrian government and its allies. They will demand the reconfiguration of the independent, secular Syrian state under President Assad into a dependent Sunni Islamist entity. Should that demand not be fulfilled they will form a new "Sunnistan" Islamist protectorate from the currently ISIS held carcasses of east Syria and west-Iraq.

Turkey today threatened further and wider attacks on Kurdish held areas in Syria. The Turkish 2nd Army is positioned to attack Syria from the north. It could come through the ISIS held corridor between Azaz in the west and Jarablus in the east and move south towards the Islamic State held Raqqa while other forces, see below, would reach Raqqa from the south and south east. Syria would be thus split into a government held western half and an ISIS and U.S. allies held eastern half.

Russian advisers have trained one Syrian brigade specifically for the purpose of holding off a Turkish invasion. But that brigade is probably not a big enough deterrence for the large Turkish forces and could soon be overwhelmed.

The Saudis today claimed again that Assad must be overthrown to defeat the Islamic State. That is of course nonsense but the Saudi family dictatorship has a personal grudge against Assad. The Syrian President once called the Saudis "only half men". (IMHO He was too generous.)

Twenty Saudi F-15 jets arrived today in Incirlik airbase in Turkey to, allegedly, join the U.S. coalition force against the Islamic State. The Saudis also promised to send ground forces if those would fight under some allied command "against ISIS". The United Arab Emirates promised to send special forces for the same purpose. Some Saudi ground forces have already been observed making their way through Jordan.

At least 1,600 British troops with heavy weapons and equipment are currently arriving in Jordan. The Brits claim that this is just for some normal training maneuver but we can expect the British government to paid off enough by the Gulf Arabs to take part in the fight. The British units would likely lead a Saudi/UAE/(maybe also Egyptian?) combined force from east Jordan up through the Syrian desert towards Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. These forces are currently explained as "trainers" who will enter Syria to instigate Syrian Arab tribes to fight ISIS. If there were enough forces in such tribes at all, these could be trained in Jordan. There is currently no Syrian or Russian force in the desert that could prevent such a move.

An additional brigade from the U.S. 101st Airborne is deploying to Iraq without much public announcement. Its task is an invasion of Syria from the south-east along the Euphrates to first capture Deir Ezzor and to then move on to Raqqa.

The Syrian army is on its way to ISIS held Raqqa to prevent any foreign force reaching there first. It will have to hurry up. The race to Raqqa is intensifying.

The Russians have alarmed several airborne brigades and air transport units of their Southern command to be ready for a fast intervention should such troops be needed in Syria. The Russians could airdrop an airborne brigade into the government held, ISIS besieged parts of Deir Ezzor (vid) to prevent that city from being attacked or taken over by Saudi and/or U.S. forces. Two additional Russian missile ships are on their way to the Syrian coast. They carry long distance Kalibr cruise missiles which can be used against other ships as well as against land targets.

Iran is ready to send as many men from its Revolutionary Guard and Quds brigades to Syria as are needed to sustain the governments fight. These folks salivate over the prospect of having some regular Saudi forces for breakfast.

There are active attempts to draw all NATO nations into the phony "fight against ISIS". When the war over Syria gets hotter NATO will likely try to create diversions elsewhere to keep Russia distracted from reacting properly in Syria. The U.S. will tell its Ukrainian puppet government to reengage in massive attacks on Russian supported Ukrainian rebels in east Ukraine.

The war against Syria, waged by the U.S., Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, was so far carried out by proxy forces and foreign mercenaries within Syria's borders. When the Syrian government was on the verge of losing the successful Russian intervention turned the war around. German intelligence no asserts (in German) that the Syrian government is winning the war against the foreign supported forces.

As the war by proxy against Syria has now failed, the anti-Syrian powers have decided to join the action on the ground with their own forces. The "fight against ISIS" (which the Syrians and Russian are fighting more than anybody else) is now the pretext to capture eastern Syria, to split the country in half and to destroy the Syrian government and state.

The "civil war" in Syria is now developing into an large international conflagration over the future of Syria and the whole Middle East.

Meanwhile the Islamic State, confused by this U.S. created clusterfuck in Iraq and Syria, decides to relocate its headquarters from Iraq and Syria to Libya, the other failed state and Charly Foxtrot the U.S. (F, UK) recently created. There it will find rich oil fields, lots of new weapons and no capable enemies.

Posted by b on February 13, 2016 at 02:30 PM | Permalink

Comments
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WWIII here we come. Unbelievably stupid brinksmanship. There's only one party whom I can imagine gaining any advantage from this (if they are not all blown to smithereens with the rest of us).

Posted by: Uncoy | Feb 13, 2016 2:41:49 PM | 1

Uncoy: Antarcticans?

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 13, 2016 2:50:22 PM | 2

It would take a wiser person than I, to pinpoint when this becomes an irreversible chain reaction, but it's not unreasonable to suggest that moment may have already passed and we've yet to fully comprehend it.

Posted by: IhaveLittleToAdd | Feb 13, 2016 3:00:41 PM | 3

Damn. Not good..

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 13, 2016 3:18:29 PM | 4

AFP reports Turkey attack SAA now, they are fucking isane, this cant be without Nato/US approval.

Posted by: Trombol | Feb 13, 2016 3:21:01 PM | 5

Can Obama be nominated again for the Nobel Peace Prize? Considering how much he's accomplished in the years since he received one….

Posted by: jawbone | Feb 13, 2016 3:26:16 PM | 6

"The "civil war" in Syria is now developing into an large international war over the future of Syria and the whole Middle East". Yes regime change in Syria to break up the 'arc of resistance' [Iran, Iraq Syria and Hezbollah] has been the plan all along. They will not stop now after investing so much capital in Syria's destruction. Russia and Iran must realize that they cannot back down and allow any unauthorized boots on the ground [which would be contrary to UNSC Resolutions and the UN charter] to do so would mean a partitioned Syria. Russia and Iran must make it clear to the aggressors that they will defend the sovereignty of Syria with all available means.

Posted by: harry law | Feb 13, 2016 3:29:41 PM | 7

The US hellbent on creating an Islamist puppet state out of once secular Arab dictatorships?? Risking a huge war in the process. Even during the Baby Bush tenure I would have laughed at such a notion, but I guess the Islamic boogeyman is the shapeshifting gift that just keeps on giving the establishment whatever it needs when it needs it.
Obama Regime not too concerned with jihad attacks in the States it seems, rather reminding people "it's not all Muslims" and shaming people who weren't asked if they wanted these people in their neighborhoods - but they need to bring 'em in anyway from regions where we are at war or are directing a proxy war. Sorry, in the minds of some if US uniformed soldiers are not on the ground = US is not at war.
I always knew Obama's young sheltered Harvard eggheads were too clever by half. The echoes of the USSR in AmeriKa get louder and louder.

Posted by: farflungstar | Feb 13, 2016 3:40:22 PM | 8

According to the sources, the Turkish military retaliated twice on Feb. 13 within its rules of engagement.
The first incident occurred around 3 p.m., when Syrian regime forces fired mortar shells near Çalıboğazı Post in the border province of Hatay. The Turkish Armed Forces retaliated to the firing.

In the second incident, gunfire from the YPG-controlled Maranas, located in the southwest of Azez, targeted Turkey’s Akçağbağlar region.

The Turkish military retaliated for two hours within the rules of engagement, the sources said.

From the article linked to above the map.

Seems Turkey is claiming both SAA and YPG hit Turkey first.

Posted by: jawbone | Feb 13, 2016 3:44:25 PM | 9

7)
I imagine if there are dead Russian and Iranian soldiers because of such AmeriKan full-blown Zionist idiocy and arrogance I bet that they will never forgive the Great Satan for these losses.

Palms rubbing in anticipation for permanent war of gentile vs. gentile.

Posted by: farflungstar | Feb 13, 2016 3:45:29 PM | 10

harry law,

Too late for that now, Iran seems to have become a ridiculous state since they cuddled up with the west recently and Russia wont/cant do anything against nato intervention, nor should they.

Posted by: Trombol | Feb 13, 2016 3:54:16 PM | 11

Ah shit...

Earlier today I saw Nigerian chartered flights taking off from government held territory in the north east of syria, and antonov heavy transports "disappearing" over Iran. There are reports that these have landed at the russian airbase.

The signs are indeed all over the place, and my ass is in Istanbul!

Needless to say, I'm packing...

Posted by: In Istanbul | Feb 13, 2016 3:59:12 PM | 12

From Defense One - http://www.defenseone.com/news/2016/02/the-d-brief-february-12-2016/125902/?oref=d-river

Also coming to the Syrian battlespace: UAE special operators to join Saudi SOF. Their job is to “assist in the development of local Sunni Arab fighters focused on recapturing Raqqa, the Islamic State group’s capital,” the Associated Press reports this morning. Ash Carter made the announcement from Brussels, but—in typical “SOF” fashion—declined to give too many specifics short of their mission being “part of an effort led by the United States and bolstered by Saudi special forces to train and enable local Arab fighters who are motivated to recapture Raqqa.”

And Turkey reminded everyone that they’re moving into a military base in Qatar to provide air, land and naval assets to the counter-ISIS fight.

A bit more about that base, from the initial announcement back in mid-December: “3,000 ground troops would be stationed at the base—Turkey’s first overseas military installation in the Middle East—as well as air and naval units, military trainers and special operations forces.”

With a new defense budget in the works back stateside, what weapons do America’s special operators want to fight ISIS? Not “U.S. weapons and ammunition,” writes Aram Roston of The Daily Beast, “but rather Russian-designed arms, including hundreds of AK-47 rifles, heavy mortars, and anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades, enough to equip a battalion.” (Here’s a graphic with all the arms in one place.)

Who gets these AKs is—naturally—not crystal clear, but Roston writes that it could include “the ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ coalition made up of the Kurdish militia known as the YPG and other groups.” The intrigue continues, here.

Note: hyperlinks available in original article

Very timely and helpful post.

Posted by: h... | Feb 13, 2016 4:01:11 PM | 13

harry law @7--

It would seem that "Jaw-Jaw" will be replaced by "War-War" regardless of legalities as per the Fascist Neocon playbook, and without them weighing the potential consequences blinded by their hubris. Does "with all available means" include nuclear weapons? I know what Putin said; would you consider that enough of a "mak[ing] it clear" or should he repeat himself (which he almost never does)? Another question is will combat be limited to Syria or will we see missiles flying every-which-way?

Medvedev in Munich said it's imperative for cooperation to be re-established to deal with global crises. Trying to fulfill Vision 2020 always implied a climactic struggle for freedom against the Outlaw US Empire. It appears the Zionists running the Empire have decided that the time for that struggle is now with Syraq being the chosen place. So far nobody's provided any info about the IDF's status. I'd be rather surprised if it didn't join the invasion.

Posted by: karlof1 | Feb 13, 2016 4:01:36 PM | 14

Did Clinton losses accelerate the war process?

Posted by: Mina | Feb 13, 2016 4:08:51 PM | 15

Russian blocking...

I just finished talking with a friend in Russia of mine, she reported that she was unable to find articles on the situation in Syria besides one or two Russian state media sites. All others were being blocked by her ISP.

Posted by: In Istanbul | Feb 13, 2016 4:10:59 PM | 16

The escalation, by the parties that started this destruction, is terribly sad. But, some here were too dismissive of potential escalation. It's a reminder to me to listen to arguments I initially might recoil from.

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 4:11:41 PM | 17

>> The "civil war" in Syria is now developing into
>> an large international conflagration

Perhaps that was the goal.

"The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion […] but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”
- Samuel Huntington

>> Meanwhile the Islamic State ... decides to
>> relocate its headquarters ... to Libya

Is their mission accomplished?

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 4:14:11 PM | 18

Hey b,

On a prior thread, you didn't reply to my follow-up defending myself against your allegation of "sock puppetry". I pleaded "innocent". But, I won't repeat what irked you, because it made you waste a few seconds of your time managing the comment section instead of pursuing your work. Sorry.

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 4:20:21 PM | 19

thanks b... i wish things looked different.. paveway and a few other posters appear prescient at this point..

Posted by: james | Feb 13, 2016 4:21:00 PM | 20

@jawbone #6

Can Obama be nominated again for the Nobel Peace Prize? Considering how much he's accomplished in the years since he received one….

Not sure can nominate for a 2nd Nobel Peace Prize. However, Both Houses of Congress could create a special medal higher than Purple Heart and only one award to Obomo since G Washington, did so much for world Peace.

UN can also create an award to Obomo as the only person who truly understands wars, suffering....and gave the world peace no other person have ever done since the beginning of time.

Posted by: Jack Smith | Feb 13, 2016 4:22:57 PM | 21

Maybe the best that can be hoped for is that Syria/Iran/Russia clean the clocks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia ... and the US effects Plan B ... pretends they had nothing to do with it ... chides the Turks and Saudis for acting independently ... for 'not sticking with the program'.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 4:47:35 PM | 22

@22 hopefully there's only bluster. I don't think it's fair to the soldiers to suffer death as the result of their leaders' nutso politicies

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 13, 2016 4:50:32 PM | 23

I guess one could assume that the Russians would get a whole lot of troops to Syria in short order if Turkey invades. They weren't long responding to other events like the Su24 thing. But how many Spetsnaz guys could fit on one of those big-ass planes anyway? And if it's game on, how vulnerable are they? I'm not being facetious, I'm curious.

I've heard different people on different sites and on MSM state that Russia's vulnerability was their relatively small number of boots. If the players have decided that it's now or never to go for Raqqa and the oil, and fuck all pretense of trying to say you're doing something else, can Russia and Iran hold on till the cavalry gets there?

Posted by: peter | Feb 13, 2016 4:55:00 PM | 24

>> But how many Spetsnaz guys could fit
>> on one of those big-ass planes anyway?

Hypothetically, they might open up a direct front or try to hit Erdogan wherever he's hiding or support a coup -- presuming they even think Erdogan's giving rather than taking the orders.

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 5:02:49 PM | 25

@15 Possibly. I thought 2016 could have a lot less action geopolitically, but I later considered that the PTB may want to start the new presidents' tenure in a form of heavy (continued) conflict.

I think such moves may undercut Bernie severely, even though I expect him to miss the nomination anyway. I think it could *potentially* undercut Trump, because Hillary will be able to tout an ability to transition into office to take care of the mayhem better than he can.

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 13, 2016 5:07:29 PM | 26

That map looks like it's from the ISW. Handle with caution. Kimberly Kagan's in-laws are Robert Kagan and Victoria Nuland.

Posted by: Jono | Feb 13, 2016 5:08:57 PM | 27

O/T but folks here might want to know Justice Antonin Scalia has died - http://www.kvia.com/news/breaking-surpreme-court-justice-scalia-dies-during-hunting-trip-in-marfa/37981652

Posted by: h... | Feb 13, 2016 5:09:57 PM | 28

Mission Accomplished: Crude Oil 29.02 +3.23
New Khazaristan Bank:Finance is safe once more.
"Oh Sweet Jesus, bmob the gooks for Moloch!"

Think of all the other cartel wars we can fap-fap about~!
Why, it's a war pron fap fest~! Ughhh, ughhhh, ...Baal~!

Meanwhile the Universe is overflowing with Abundance,
and We, as Agents of Distribution of that Abundance,
sit here fap-fapping, while Millions are left Without.

Dedicate your Sunday to work at a Homeless Shelter.

Posted by: NoReply | Feb 13, 2016 5:13:07 PM | 29

Senior U.S. Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia found dead at West Texas ranch.

This will affect a lot of cases before the U.S. Supreme Court. Obama is unlikely to get the Republican Senate to confirm any nominees during his last year in office. When there is a tie vote in the Supreme Court, the ruling of the court below remains the final disposition of the case.

Posted by: lysias | Feb 13, 2016 5:15:36 PM | 30

Two schools of thought among North American racists:

1.) Knucklehead: Glass the ME and let the Xtian god sort them out.

2.) Pseudo-intellectual Knucklehead: Scoff about Arabs fighting each other for millennia (which they deduce with aplomb and Fox News intellect that this should continue "so they can all kill each other and let the Xtian god sort them out").

Now Israel with its Yinon and PNAC Plans for remapping the ME with Greater Israel as its center - using its ham-handed American War machine has resulted in a similar arrangement which will directly engage Russians and Americans in a fantastic hot war.

So they can all kill each other and let Israel sort it out.

Posted by: fast freddy | Feb 13, 2016 5:15:54 PM | 31

@28

Sorry he's dead. Glad he's off the bench. Afraid "Obama's" choice of replacemnt will be in the 'worse' direction. It can always get worse.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 5:19:04 PM | 32

@31 ff 'So they can all kill each other and let Israel sort it out.

All time.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 5:21:31 PM | 33

Re Syria. I'm old enough to remember this 1997 event (are you?):

http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/1997-12-07/news/9712060167_1_mossad-israeli-intelligence-military-intelligence

Mossad Officer Reportedly Fed Lies To Government About Syria

December 7, 1997|By JAMES RUPERT The Washington Post

...Former military chief of staff Ehud Barak, who heads the opposition Labor Party, told Israeli television that ``for some 20 years, this case officer has been presenting fabricated material'' as having come from ``a not insignificant source'' that Mossad maintains in Syria. Other media accounts suggested that the reported Syrian agent is a high-ranking military officer....


Syria has long been targeted for takeover by outsiders for many different reasons, all adding together to unite a vicious collection of enemies.(other sovereign states)..This means that lying/twisted propaganda tends to dominate much of what we "know" about Syria, Syrians. their government and their culture.
False data and omitted data are the stock-in-trade of unfriends..

Posted by: Chu-Teh | Feb 13, 2016 5:21:33 PM | 34

28

Now Obama can appoint a close personal friend of the Clintons to SCOTUS for the Big Hanging Chad ReCount, that will sweep her Khazar Mafia Cartel into power. Then kiss Ukraine goodbye, kiss Syria goodbye, for Perpetual Structural Adjustments under an overwhelming TPP horizon.
What, you thought when they said Exceptional, they were talking about YOU?! Bwaa-ha-ha-ha.

Posted by: NoReply | Feb 13, 2016 5:25:01 PM | 35

This is a sequel of the start of World War I in very slow motion. In Ukraine Westerners tried to get Russia to invade but failed. Now they have Russia trapped in Syria. Threats of the Turkish and Saudi invasions netted a half-assed stand down. But, if the incursions into Eastern Syria are underway, it is too late. Much like Hernan Cortes burning his ships, with the Bosporus and Gibraltar closed, together with the history of the west’s shock therapy in the 1990’s and NATO’s expansion to its borders; Russia will not back down but fight to win. Russians have the experience, morale and technology to destroy any Syrian invaders including British and American trainers. Russia’s Shiite and Alawite allies on the ground know their fate if the head choppers win.

The losing side facing a humiliating defeat and a catastrophic collapse destroying the oligarchs’ wealth will inevitably use nuclear weapons.

Posted by: VietnamVet | Feb 13, 2016 5:25:14 PM | 36

It must not be forgotten that the possible Turkey/Saudi intervention is contingent on being US led, at least the Saudis think it is. Therefore any unilateral Turkish intervention must be condemned by the US. So with this Turkish threat manifesting itself in plain sight, it is incumbent on the US to warn Turkey not to take matters into its own hands, and that if it does so it will be on its own, If it does not warn Turkey, the US will be on board to invade Syria and possible confrontation with Russia. The balls in the US court.

Posted by: harry law | Feb 13, 2016 5:25:58 PM | 37

>> Scalia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=DopWfOB2XX8#t=114

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 5:26:37 PM | 38

No surprises at all. Like I mentioned as soon as Russia extended its power into Syria, the evil US Empire saw that move as "we're the fucking empire, you back down". And it now looks like that time has come to be tested.
The US knows that Russia in Syria will kill its terrorists all day long, but the real test is will Russia kill western criminal invaders ? The Empire is desperate to put that lunacy to the test.
Nothing has been less about terrorists then this WW3 provoking move by the evil US Empire, to counter the rising power of Russia.
And this has nothing to do with negotiating some fucking agreement, it's about who is going to stay the big bloodthirsty dog.
And if the US and it's terroritst state allies does invade and take away parts of Syria, there is no fucking way they gonna give that up under any circumstances.

You don't hear many calls about how 'history will be the judge' anymore, when nuclear war will erase most of history.

PS. Isnt it obvious now that its always about power and domination and not about the power of corporations ( also very important) , I really wish idiots would stop With that shit. Hillarys emails proved that amply.

The shrinking self destroying US Empire will certainly lash out and cause/start/ provoke wars as it descends into its own filth, evil and corruption.

I still can't get past Putin inviting US evil itself into a coalition against terrorists in Syria. One of the stupidest things I've ever witnessed in geopolitics. Master tactician ? laughable, if it wasn't so terrifying.

Posted by: tom | Feb 13, 2016 5:35:51 PM | 39

@-39

I still can't get past Putin inviting US evil itself into a coalition against terrorists in Syria. One of the stupidest things I've ever witnessed in geopolitics. Master tactician ? laughable, if it wasn't so terrifying.

Conciliatory propaganda invitation. It was never considered a serious offer ( by both sides )

Posted by: alkomv | Feb 13, 2016 5:48:04 PM | 40

@37 harry law.. i agree with your last line especially..

@39 tom.. you keep on saying that about putin, but i think you are wrong on that...it is too soon to tell and only time will tell..

Posted by: james | Feb 13, 2016 5:50:53 PM | 41

Sacalia was on a Cheney-style canned quail hunt down in TexMex. They're saying that he expired in his sleep while dreaming of pulling the legs off of kittens. For all we know, Cheney accidentally shot him in the face.

The rich man's canned "hunts" are interesting. Shooting the birds is a bit like shooting fish in barrel. There be no "hunting" involved of any sort whatsoever.

You simply drive in your 4x4 golf cart with the Rolls Royce grill to the bushes where the birds are nested. After slamming a few Coors/Carnegie Mellon Lights, you disembark and wait for the young Mexican boys to roust with broomsticks the birds from the bush. When the startled birds take flight, you fire your shotgun over the heads of the Mexican boys - hoping (sort of) that you miss the boys and hit the birds. A boy takes some birdshot now and again, but them's the breaks for $10 a day.

It's a wonderful sport.

Posted by: fast freddy | Feb 13, 2016 6:08:02 PM | 42

US has asked the Turks to stop bombing the Kurds. For once French radio was balanced and put the blame entirely on the Turks for playing havoc after the Kurds had managed to get back the military base which had been taken by Ahrar al Sham in 2013

Posted by: Mina | Feb 13, 2016 6:13:12 PM | 43

@42 Those Saudis know a thing or two about destroying birds. No Coors though. Of course it's a cultural tradition so we can't say much.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35524916

Posted by: dh | Feb 13, 2016 6:24:05 PM | 45

@ 39 Tom
I still can’t get past Putin inviting US evil itself into a coalition against terrorists in Syria

May I suggest this essay by Dimitry Orlov

Peculiarities of Russian National Character
http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/2015/08/peculiarities-of-russian-national.html

"Dealing with Invaders" Dealing with Foreign Powers" .. then read "Conclusions"

Posted by: likklemore | Feb 13, 2016 6:33:32 PM | 46

noreply----> Chipnik?

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 13, 2016 6:38:46 PM | 47

E@44 yup, surely sounds like our plumbing problem ridden PW. Great read.

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 13, 2016 6:45:21 PM | 48

THIS MEANS WAR.

BUT US REFUSED SO FAR, TO GRANT BLANK CHECK TO TURKS BY IMPUDENTLY ASKING FOR DEESCALATION ON BOTH SIDES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHICH BOTH SIDES, ONLY TURKS ARE SHOOTING, ANOTHER TURKISH ACT OF AGGRESSION VIOLATING UN CHARTER OR RESOLUTIONS SINCE FOR UN KURDS ARE NOT TERRORISTS BUT SYRIAN CITIZEN.

Expect guided missiles launched from sea and Russian strategic bombers to annihilate the artillery positions even in Turkey officially to protect their own special forces present in North Aleppo. Turks will not invade Syria en mass without explicit blessing from the US Air command since with no air supremacy Turks will be decimated.
More about already failed Munich (AFTER 48 HOURS)cease-fire agreement can be found here:
https://syrianwarupdate.wordpress.com/


Posted by: Kalen | Feb 13, 2016 7:00:20 PM | 49

I'm less certain of this becoming the great shebang than many others. The argument that kicking off a 'proper war' will make it tough for either Sanders or Trump does resonate somewhat but there are two factors that may negate that argument. Firstly who really cares which asshole is amerikan prez anyhow? Like being emperor of China back in dynastic days the job is largely ceremonial and real power rests with others. Secondly whatever power oblammer has managed to hang on to will be used to lever the US away from such a direct conflict as Obama like a general who fights the last war his superiors fought will be determined not to suffer the gw bush fate of going down in history as a weak assed war monger who couldn't finish what he started (yeah yeah too late I know but oblammer prolly only listens to his propaganda machines who would have really tough time selling a war with Russia over Syria).

More likely is that Obama will try to cut a deal over the Scalia replacement in return for not being pressured into becoming notorious for kicking off the big one.

All the pundits really care about who gets on scotus, but joe blow doesn't so much especially given that Roberts will still be calling the shots no matter who is picked. If oblammer gives scotus to a closet rethug it will cause a stir but not as long term or profound as bluing with the russkies would, plus the rethugs cannot be certain they will retain control of the hill after the next election, so leaving the selection that late could be a major loser. That will scare the rethugs who run the war machine whichever puppet gets to be prez cos the wrong scotus pick could screw their profits something awful they will want that sorted soon.

The Clintons are capable of sticking any old hack into scotus especially if he/she already knows where to pick up the brown envelopes. For some reason janet reno comes to mind as a likely billary nomination. Long term AG and a woman.
She would distract the mugs by writing deliberately provocative opinions on culture wars cases while pushing through the corporate agenda for clinton's backers. She won't upset the applecart but anything can happen in the next 18 months to fuck the preferred nominee.

Yep there is a certain asymmetry a la 1914 war against Germany Part 1 to the showdown with Russia starting now after ordinary humans thought the scare had passed, but it is tough to see the corporate capitalists seeing an improved bottom line being a long term result of a major war. Small regional confrontations where everyone makes a dollar and things stay secure back home is what they like.

Which is not to say this cannot spin outta control - I just think that these blowhards in USuk just don't have the strength not to blink once the temperature rises too high.
Turkey and Saudi will end up isolated and get their asses kicked - that is more likely.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 13, 2016 7:03:57 PM | 50

@44 da

Agree with 7181621 Paveway IV, but I cannot imagine Syrian/Iran/Russia allowing 7181773 Paveway IV to go forward.

We ought not to take our predictions too seriously, we have - even the Paveway has - not enough information to know what's actually going to happen, and time will tell soon enough. Certainly our knowledge/ignorance of the play will have no actual effect on it in any case.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:05:21 PM | 51

oops for asymmetry read symmetry

Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 13, 2016 7:08:42 PM | 52

jfl, I totally understand. We're a bunch of campers speculating wildly about the stars in the night sky. It's a hobby for the morbidly curious who find the usual circuses tedious. (FWIW, I like your posts too.) Funny thing is: I estimate a higher probability that our semi-informed speculation rings true than anything TPTB (a union of corporate, media, and government power) tells us, because IMHO they lie to us on instinct. It's "economy" of effort: When they even attempt to speak to us, when they find they get our attention they might as well introduce or reinforce a narrative that serves their purposes -- not ours.

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 13, 2016 7:17:48 PM | 53

@50 did

I agree with your overall assessment of the war(s) ... OT : I think you may be (are!) right with your assessment of the importance of the SCOTUS to the oligarchs, now that they have effectively - if not theoretically - emasculated the POTUS. It's not at all unlike the 'problem' the Thais have here ... see, for instance, Thailand’s juristocracy, and The Constitutional Court in the 2016 constitutional draft: A substitute King for Thailand in the post-Bhumibol era?.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:18:44 PM | 54

I just think that these blowhards in USuk just don't have the strength not to blink once the temperature rises too high.
Turkey and Saudi will end up isolated and get their asses kicked - that is more likely.

but these blowhard in the USUK don't have to blink - it's not actually their asses on the line.

The Turds and the Toads MIGHT get their asses kicked, (or even nuked it the hysterics are to be believed, (hint: They're not) but the Russkies will have to invest a whole lot more Men, Material and Money if they are going to do so. (Iranians too)

And THAT is the aim of the game.

Now, I'm off to my library to get my dictionary to look up the correct spelling and definition of "Quagmire" - I suggest b do so also.

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:21:31 PM | 55

We ought not to take our predictions too seriously, we have - even the Paveway has - not enough information to know what's actually going to happen, and time will tell soon enough. Certainly our knowledge/ignorance of the play will have no actual effect on it in any case.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:05:21 PM | 51

Spoken like a guy that never made a useful or interesting prediction. Paveway can occasionally, and is certainly worth reading. You? Not so much

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:27:21 PM | 56

NB - operative words "useful or interesting"

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:27:56 PM | 57

@53 da 'I estimate a higher probability that our semi-informed speculation rings true than anything TPTB (a union of corporate, media, and government power) tells us ...'

I agree there. We - anyone who takes the time to try to figure out what the hell is going on - can rapidly discover that it ain't what TPTB claim it is, and can begin to create a more accurate understanding him/herself over time. But the resolving power is just not there. And when things get to be as contingent upon imponderables as this situation seems to have, predicting the blow-by-blow becomes a fool's errand. I do think the longer trends are more nearly predictable - well assessible ... but one's own frame of reference and outright bias/preferrence is unavoidable, and becomes more pronounced as the term lengthens.

At least in my own case. I'm always divining a way for the good guys to win. Seems to dictate my time frame, to lengthen my long run :)

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:32:25 PM | 58

Told Ya @55

"(or even nuked it the hysterics are to be believed, (hint: They're not)"

From VT piece today ...

"VT is back up after being hacked for several hours when one key story was up — the one below on the Saudis moving tactical nukes to Turkey, to be closer to the NW Syrian battleground"

The year is 2016 NOT 1916!

Posted by: Alberto | Feb 13, 2016 7:33:08 PM | 59

Anyone that uses VT as a reliable source for anything is a bit of a fool imo, Albie

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:36:47 PM | 60

@55 ty ' but the Russkies will have to invest a whole lot more Men, Material and Money if they are going to do so. (Iranians too)'

But there will be a return on the investment they were forced to make. Feel free to skip the comments with jfl on the bottom.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:39:16 PM | 61

" We - anyone who takes the time to try to figure out what the hell is going on"

LULZ - well, YOU sure have a high opinion of your non existent predictive capabilities.

as Tonto said to the lone Ranger "Whose 'WE' Whiteman?"

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:39:38 PM | 62

But there will be a return on the investment they were forced to make. Feel free to skip the comments with jfl on the bottom.

Posted by: jfl | Feb 13, 2016 7:39:16 PM | 61

hahaha I sure hope you don't give professional investment advice - gawd help yer clients if you do.

"Feel free to skip the comments with jfl on the bottom."

Nah - you post the comments on a publicly accessible forum- and I get to laugh at em when you post something totally LULZworthy, which you frequently do.

If you want privacy, and want not to be ridiculed when you post obvious nonsense, I suggest you set up some private password-protected forum where you and your little gaggle of "yes men" can preen each others egos to yer little hearts content.

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 7:45:24 PM | 63

I feel like a guy who threatens Europe with waves of migrants, publicly threatens the US with "you're with us or you're with the Kurds/terrorists" nonsense (which seems like it was a mocking as well), and who starts shelling and invading Syria in a way that might spark a war that the US and Europe don't want... won't be around for very long.

Unless he's kept around as a convenient crazy belligerent. Which looks less and less likely, but you never know. I thought he'd be gone a couple of months ago.

Posted by: Joanne Leon | Feb 13, 2016 7:51:36 PM | 64

This blog is a font of detailed information on Syrian developments. I've never seen anything like it and am continually amazed. Well worth putting up with the formulaic propaganda line.

The Southfront link on Turkish 2nd Army forces massing on the northern border is particularly interesting. The three corps are chock-full of armored, mechanized infantry, self-propelled artillery, and commandos, with modern equipment and seasoned troops, all highly mobile.

The arguments put forth by the same article's author regarding Turkish justifications and NATO ring true.

Lots of great stuff. Keep up the good work, b.

Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | Feb 13, 2016 8:04:49 PM | 65

Mmm the more tension rises, the more hungry trolls leave their caves.. Go back to fasting please.

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 13, 2016 8:11:55 PM | 66

Posted by: Joanne Leon | Feb 13, 2016 7:51:36 PM | 64

"a guy who threatens Europe with waves of migrants, publicly threatens the US with "you're with us or you're with the Kurds/terrorists" nonsense (which seems like it was a mocking as well), and who starts shelling and invading Syria in a way that might spark a war that the US and Europe don't want"

Pretty certain the US and Europe DO want a war.

I think the gaping disconnect between words and actions is whats got you all confuse-imalated.

Here's a handy tip for all you seemingly permanently "confused" dinosaurs out there : Ignore the words, but pay close attention to the actions

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 13, 2016 8:13:45 PM | 67

From RT: https://www.rt.com/news/332380-turkey-shells-northern-syria/

Scalia? BFD, more useless theater.

Posted by: ben | Feb 13, 2016 8:42:16 PM | 68

I am just now downloading to read this post but note the first comment expresses concern about WW III. While I agree that is a very serious concern -- I mean it's an outcome with what is becoming a more substantial probability of happening all the time lately -- note that the US/NATO were already flirting heavily with WW III consequent on US aggression (coup) in Ukraine and followup imflammatory actions and statements. And I think it was just in the last week or two that the US announced intent to build up its forced in E. Europe to deter Russian aggression. But at least the issue is being raised here in re Syria while it got very little play in re Ukraine. E.g., PM Medvedev in the last day or two warned at a conference in Munich of a New Cold War; of course one has been underway for some time now, but nobody with such a high profile has used the word before that I'm aware of (but some Western officials denied that one was threatened and/or claimed not to want one). Wrt Syria the subject has come up and there is awareness of the risk, seemingly, which may not be much comfort but from my perspective is a bit of an improvement. Note that old New Yorker article that explored some of the ways in which there could be a nuclear launch without even the intention of starting a war. Citations and discussion of some of this is on my blog at www.healingjustice.wordpress.com.

Posted by: Robert Roth | Feb 13, 2016 9:39:15 PM | 69

@ 67 Told Ya
Pretty certain the US and Europe Do want a war

I respectfully disagree. They may desire a war but Not with Russia and Iran/Hezbollah they don’t.

On February 07 we read in b‘s post “ Why Kerry Blames the Opposition for The Continuing Bombing in Syria” - Kerry asked the Opposition: “What do you want me to do? Go to war with Russia?

As demonstrated, Russia is well equipped. This Syria campaign had several months in planning before being deployed. S-400 and Kalibr at the ready. There this the old adage in Russia. “Saddle your horse slowly, ensure the harness is secured then mount and ride fast.”

Today’s action by Turkey will end ugly. It is likely NATO will splinter, Erdogan will fall and Turkey will become a failed state.

Posted by: likklemore | Feb 13, 2016 9:41:21 PM | 70

Did I miss it or has Putin not spoken yet? Seems like he would be due soon to address the Duma and the nation. Russia went into Syria on an agreement with its people that it wouldn't turn into something heavier. I'm very curious to see if Putin feels the need to escalate this now, or not. I have the feeling that whatever Putin says will show the entire world how it's going to be in Syria.

In terms of power, I accept the Saker's continued point that the Russian force currently in Syria is very small, especially compared to the force that Turkey could launch. But as his latest assessment also points out, Russia has made full military preparations for war with Turkey, if necessary.

Also, Iran has a mutual defense treaty with Syria, and Syria has formally said she will regard uninvited foreigners on her soil as something to be attacked. By my very casual reading as a non-military person, Iran has at least 300,000 very motivated soldiers ready to enter Syria on a dime. By the way, Iran has been active throughout Syria all along, as water poured into water. The two are mixed inseparably, and Iran has not slackened or hesitated - simply waited until need should arise.

I speculate that Russia will stay with its original purpose and simply control the skies over Syria. It will be quite enough of a test and a showdown for Russia to finesse the next few days in this capacity. How masterfully she does it will dictate much of what ensues, I think.

I'm a big fan of Russia - in case it wasn't clear - and expect great things in the days to come. But I would parse all of Russia's actions in terms of building peace, rather than winning wars, per se.

Posted by: Grieved | Feb 13, 2016 9:41:50 PM | 71

"An additional brigade from the U.S. 101st Airborne is deploying to Iraq without much public announcement. Its task is an invasion of Syria from the south-east along the Euphrates to first capture Deir Ezzor and to then move on to Raqqa."

I saw a comment at the linked to blog saying that the author had heard of the second brigade (didn't specify how or from whom); but what is the source for the subsequent assertion about "its task"?

Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | Feb 13, 2016 9:44:04 PM | 72


Fuck I hate it when posters go agin each other but to paraphrase comrade Giap those who enter MoA to shit on the rug are only worthy of our contempt.
the angry chap shouting to get his POV down everyone's throat while denigrating other posters comes across like a 'survivor' frustrated at his/her failure to push back while 'dad' pushed his face into the pillow & now wants to lash out at anyone/everyone. Might be time to seek treatment "Told Ya"

It is possible, now that everyone in the elite when the European war which dominated the first half of the 20th century is dead, that the puppet masters may have forgotten rule number one of kicking off wars - that altho smallish conflicts are a good way of grinding wealth for large established players, the really big blues cost the big players and enrich regional boss countries itching to force their way to the top of the top table at the expense of the instigators.

In January 1914 amerika was a precocious pain in the arse for England France Germany and Austria. Russia was considered to be always an also ran - handy to make up the numbers 'but not quite white'.
Jan 1946 and Austria is over so is Germany - England and France have been relegated so Russia and amerika can take charge.
I reckon the gwbush fuckups in Iraq and the 'ghan will have given amerikan puppet masters pause. They can go all in and still fail to win a war where they imagine they hold all the advantages.

In a war with Russia they won't have such a clear cut advantage so there will be nervousness and sufficient caution to listen to those analysts and historians who are not so gung ho full speed ahead.
Amerika could end up bluing with Russia either because the generals eager to try all the toys won the day or because the inept crew in Washington stumbled into a war with Russia and Iran by accident, but the chances of that are less than the odds of the puppeteers declining to go all in, preferring to play carefully & continuing to use their wealth to bleed us all dry slowly.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 13, 2016 9:46:39 PM | 73

@73
Might be time to seek treatment "Told Ya"

Surely you recognize the foff MO by now.

Posted by: dh | Feb 13, 2016 9:51:58 PM | 74

@44 da... i doubt very much that's paveway making those zh posts...

i agree with @51 jfl in not taking any prediction too seriously.. paveway wasn't making any prediction, so much as articulating his observations on the build up gleamed from numerous media sources, much as b does in fact.

@ told ya = foff and etc.. i agree with you here: "Ignore the words, but pay close attention to the actions."

at this point it seems turkey is justifying ( the fact they're justifying here shows their weak hand) their firing on the airbase as a return for fire on the killis area.. now whether ISIL decided to lob a few bullets towards turkey, or their is covert agreement as to this approach to engage and justify turkeys foray here, it seems like turkey has a weak hand.. they are not being given any support from the usa and russia has yet to speak... i doubt russia is going to say anything, but i suspect they will be prepared for an immediate response if it happens again.. they may have been thinking of giving turkey enough rope to hang themselves.. 2nd time round might be entirely different, if and when it happens... all in all, things continue to heat, but i don't think this is the trip wire just yet..

unfortunately i am in the group that anticipates a more major confrontation.. i say that as i don't want to be, but i can ignore the actions as i see them unfold, to go back to 'told ya's' quote above.. it is hard for me to take saudi arabia seriously with their talk about going after ISIS, while saying the only way forward if for assad to be gone.. is that becuase they have the same warped ideological position that ISIS holds? it would appear that way to me.. so, the talk is cheap dept. is working, but their support for the headchoppers tells a different story.. same deal with turkey and the akp so far as i can tell too.. that is like a pair of jacks in a place where some other parties are holding something better - russia in particular.. i just wouldn't underestimate russia's resolve, or nato/wests duplicity.. that's my bottom line..


Posted by: james | Feb 13, 2016 10:00:58 PM | 75

Re 71: "Russia has made full military preparations for war with Turkey, if necessary."

Such as?

Here is the official Putin line as of February 4:

"Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russian military
men do not take part in ground operations in Syria. Peskov explained the presence of advisors with the need to train Syrian military men and teach them how to operate new weapons and military hardware."

http://www.pravdareport.com/russia/politics/04-02-2016/133250-russia_syria_losses-0/


Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | Feb 13, 2016 10:24:42 PM | 76

This does not sound like much of a strike force, though the situation is fluid and this particular report may not be definitive:

"Turkey continues building up its military presence on the border with the Syrian Arab Republic, as evidenced by photographs from reconnaissance drones.

"A source at the Syrian Armed Forces said that more than 20 Turkish tanks, more than 20 self-propelled guns and 30 field artillery guns of various calibers appeared near the border on Syria during February 7-10."

http://www.pravdareport.com/world/asia/12-02-2016/133320-turkey_saudi_arabia_russia_syria-0/

Posted by: Emil Pulsifer | Feb 13, 2016 10:33:12 PM | 77

Latest Ft. Russ: http://www.fort-russ.com/

Posted by: ben | Feb 13, 2016 10:33:17 PM | 78

That map looks like it's from the ISW. Handle with caution.
Kimberly Kagan's in-laws are Robert Kagan and Victoria Nuland.
Posted by: Jono | Feb 13, 2016 5:08:57 PM | 27

Interesting. Thanks for the input.

Posted by: Terry Ostrics | Feb 13, 2016 10:44:12 PM | 79

@Emil Pulsifer #76 - This should answer your laconic question: http://thesaker.is/week-eighteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-a-dramatic-escalation-appears-imminent/

Note that I offer this only for its sound detailing of Russia's preparation for war, not necessarily for its prognoses.

Posted by: Grieved | Feb 13, 2016 11:37:24 PM | 80

#GOPDebate

While Rubio, Bush and Kasich were in competition to be the deep state's biggest prostitutes tonight, Trump sounded absolutely sensible.. Cruz showed a hint of rationality as well for that matter

Trump's response re: putin, Isis, etc is around the 22 minute mark
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o0KowPetnU

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 13, 2016 11:44:22 PM | 81

b says: “Charly Foxtrot the U.S. (F, UK) recently created”

That is such a beautiful piece of anagram-poetry . . . it brought a tear to my eye. We should not let it pass unnoticed.

Speaking of humor: 20 Saudi F-15's join French, British, American jets flying out of Incirlik or other Turk air force bases.

How many runways can Turkey have? 20, at most? Incirlik has one – 05/23. Crater them all with Putin’s Kaliber’s and it’s game over. Ask Egypt how effective an air force is with no runways.

If you want to see what a cratered runway looks like, here’s a very recent job in Yemen, al-Anad AFB blistered by the Houthis: 16° 58.204' N 43° 43.725' E – GE, Jan09|2016

Even if ya’ got 1000 coalition fighter jets sitting at AFBs within range of Syria, sitting is precisely all they’re gonna’ do once the runways are cratered. Of course, the same goes for Putin’s jets in Syria, which is what makes it all s’durn interestin’.

Aircraft carriers are no exception to this rule. What coalition carriers are in the Med now? Harry Truman along with the de Gaulle? Wonder what a few Kalibers flying at Mach 3+ only 15 feet off the sea surface would do to an aircraft carrier . . . likely leave holes in bulkheads that extend well below the water line.

Einstein: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” Now we know, Al. WWIII is going to be fought with hyper-Mach cruise missiles, swarms of smart-bombs, and missile-defense systems no one has ever really seen in action.

And the US is extending that crop-duster runway in the middle of the Syrian desert for C-130's – ha, ha, ha.

Air superiority has and will continue to determine the outcome of this war on the ground, but if this thing blows open and hostilities spill across borders, cruise missiles will determine air superiority more than fighter jets will. Technically speaking, this is going to be a fascinating little dust-up.

Need I point out that Dabiq, the prophetic, apocalyptic ground-zero for the end of times, is smack in the middle of the battle plan shown in b’s map – it’s just east of Tal Rifaat.

Posted by: Denis | Feb 13, 2016 11:51:58 PM | 82

I certainly hope that if Saudi and Turkish troops attack in an attempt to take Raqqa that the Russians refrain from getting involved. There is little that the Russians can do other than destroying some convoys and shooting down aircraft. If they were to do that it would put tremendous pressure on the US to get directly involved. No one can predict the outcome of that confrontation. I certainly have no faith that Obama and Kerry have the strength to resist the war party once they begin to scream in unison for revenge.

The was the danger of Putin going into Syria in the first place. The US made it abundantly clear that Assad must go! We have a history of changing regimes and we were not thwarted in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. In the minds of the war party, it was a right the US learned as being the world's only superpower. That has become part of the psychology of the US elite. It can't last forever, but perhaps the US should have been given more time to come to its senses. A sudden crisis, which the Russians created by defeating US proxies in Syria, is not conducive for most people to come their senses. If this invasion does now occur, let us hope that Russia will let the US to bask in its victory and maybe begin to sober up a little bit.

Posted by: ToivoS | Feb 14, 2016 12:06:57 AM | 83

aaaaaa @80

You do realize that Trump's backfill is Arnoldt Schwartzenegger the former Governator of California who could not properly pronounce California?

Posted by: Alberto | Feb 14, 2016 12:14:03 AM | 84

@83 I wasn't talking about 'The Apprentice' at all

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 14, 2016 12:23:37 AM | 85

Head-banging in the White House after crucial meetings of Kerry/Lavrov in Munich and Ashton Carter / Breedlove @NATO HQ in Brussels. With NSC's Susan Power and VP Biden having the President's ear ... Kerry lost and Carter won! More war in the Middle East with a dangerous clip to manage: showdown with Putin's Russia.

Wagging the Dog ... a military conflict would turn US domestic politics in the presidential race upside down. The establishment wins once again: Clinton (D) vs Kasich (R). Perhaps a dark horse will enter the race to the White House.

When the stakes are down [read Wall Street and the banking/financial institutions] the powerful, filthy rich will resort to a great war to invest their riches. The beginning of the 20th century déja vu – attempt to break up the monopollies of run-away capitalism. USA at risk with a "commie" running for president. With the (un)timely death of judge Scalia just raising the same stakes for America's future [of the 0.1%].

Will US/UK/NATO Intervene In Eastern Syria?

Posted by: Oui | Feb 14, 2016 12:23:51 AM | 86

Samantha Power R2P policy after 300k deaths: Syria gov has slowed aid access to trickle in Aleppo.
Russia must push regime to let in aid instead of bombing ppl
... so HRC's favorite son Erdogan comes in and bombs the SAA and Kurds near Aleppo.

Who is providing the financials in HRC's Super PACs?

Posted by: Oui | Feb 14, 2016 12:24:41 AM | 87

After "peace talks" with Lavrov and the ISSG in Munich, Kerry knew the military option was already set in motion. The world remained silent ...

Munich Security Conference - John Kerry condemns Russia's 'repeated aggression' in Syria and Ukraine

Posted by: Oui | Feb 14, 2016 12:26:49 AM | 88

Posted by: ToivoS | Feb 14, 2016 12:06:57 AM | 82

Toivo- basically your theory is like the BS Nixon told Mao which is go tell Putin that Americans are crazy they may do the ultimate irrational crazy thing so you better let them win this one. BS, no one is going for that kind of shit, IMO it's time for the American stratgic planers to grow up in this adult world and realize BS warfare wouldn't work, it never did. In other word if you have to shoot, shoot don't BS talk.

Posted by: Kooshy | Feb 14, 2016 12:32:07 AM | 89

@81 Denis
Yes Dabiq. All the signs are there. According to Islamic eschatology, from Jordan will come the Sufyani, a great commander who will invade Al Sham, after both armies in Syria are exhausted.
Al Malhama, the great war of muslims and non-muslims.

Posted by: Lozion | Feb 14, 2016 12:56:51 AM | 90

So is this finally Armageddon? The king of north attacking the king of the south and all that? I still remember when the USA was the good guys.

Posted by: Fernando Arauxo | Feb 14, 2016 1:51:24 AM | 91

>> In other word if you have to shoot, shoot don't BS talk.

That was Tuco's advice as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WjoXaJUOInU#t=1410

Posted by: dumbass | Feb 14, 2016 1:56:53 AM | 92

...
A sudden crisis, which the Russians created by defeating US proxies in Syria, is not conducive for most people to come their senses. If this invasion does now occur, let us hope that Russia will let the US to bask in its victory and maybe begin to sober up a little bit.
Posted by: ToivoS | Feb 14, 2016 12:06:57 AM | 82

That's almost as stupid as it is disingenuous. Is it mere coincidence that it's the same argument the Jews use to justify their collective punishment of Palestinians?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Feb 14, 2016 2:13:50 AM | 93

(OT) As introduced above - moar bright and shinny bits of information from where ever they can be found; much less of the - my opinion is better than your 'un (please vocalise that last part). The trolls have become thick of late - b must be doing something right - keep up the effort. (/OT)

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Feb 14, 2016 2:19:15 AM | 94

Re: Posted by: ToivoS | Feb 14, 2016 12:06:57 AM | 82



A sudden crisis, which the Russians created by defeating US proxies in Syria, is not conducive for most people to come their senses. If this invasion does now occur, let us hope that Russia will let the US to bask in its victory and maybe begin to sober up a little bit.

Wow, you talk a lot of rubbish.

A sudden crisis! Are you mentally damaged? The Syrian Civil War has been ongoing for 5 bloody years! Almost as long as World War II mate! Hardly sudden at all - and you know it.

A crisis the Russians created by defeating US proxies? WTF? You contradict yourself in only a few words.

How could Russia have created US proxies for them to defeat. What a ridiculous statement. Obviously you even admit the crisis has been created by US proxies!!

Your conclusions are bizarre son. Wake up.

Russia will respond to being attacked in any means they deem necessary. That is their tight which they have repeatedly repeatedly stated.

Posted by: Julian | Feb 14, 2016 2:44:57 AM | 95

Wow, you talk a lot of rubbish.

does sort of seem to be a bit redundant there @ 94

Posted by: Formerly T-Bear | Feb 14, 2016 2:53:53 AM | 96

To add to what I wrote earlier - Trump's comment in tonight's debate about Putin was quite a shock; he actually appeared to compliment him.

Causing a conflagration with Russia would cast a serious shade on Trump's professed views. "He loves Putin who killed American troops", or something to that matter.

I'm wondering if we make it to election at this point.. Interesting tidbit, Denis@81 re Dabiq: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2786039/The-1-300-year-old-apocalyptic-prophecy-predicted-war-Islamic-army-infidel-horde-Syria-fuelling-ISIS-s-brutal-killers.html

I always think back to the hoopla upon O's election, regarding the MABUS/antichrist bit from good old Nostradamus.. Ray Mabus is still sec. of the navy afterall.. lol

Posted by: aaaaaa | Feb 14, 2016 2:57:14 AM | 97

Pahtetic (turks), saudis attack their arab brothers like that in syria
But have never dared to help their palestinian people
like that!


B,
You are quoted at sputniks check here
http://m.sputniknews.com/politics/20160213/1034706612/race-raqqa-why-washington-wants-to-capture-the-city.html

Posted by: cz. | Feb 14, 2016 3:16:17 AM | 98

Julian at 94 seems to be arguing that the war in Syria was not so sudden. Of course it's not. What is sudden is that in just the last few weeks it has become clear to the whole world that the US proxy armies fighting Assad are in the process of being defeated. This possibility was not even imaginable to US leaders 6 months ago. Also their defeat in NW Syria is probably irreversible. Raqqa could at the most be a consolation prize for the US and its allies and possibly a bargaining chip in future negotiations. That would not be a terrible loss for the Russians. However a war between the R+6 and the Turks and Saudis (especially if those forces were about to be defeated) could result in a real shooting war between Russia and NATO. That is a situation I would hate to see.

Posted by: ToivoS | Feb 14, 2016 3:35:57 AM | 99

73

Ah the joys of an antipodean childhood, as detailed by debs -always a treat the hear him reminisce about his and Giap's formative years.
If they could run faster than a kanga can hop, little Ozzy anklebiters might have had somewhat less traumatic experiences with which to regale us, on this sunny Sunday morn.

I heard the flashbacks can be quite debilitating, in later life, from that sort of thing, but i didn't quite realise how much, til I discoverd both our antipodean friends
@james

".. i agree with you here: "Ignore the words, but pay close attention to the actions."

Well of course you do james, it is after all the only sensible way to approach these matters.
The fact it even needed stating in the first place, is testament to the tenacity with which the usual gaggle of gormlessness commenters refuse to excersize what little greymatter they possess. Formative Years spent pillowbiting seems to have had a lamentable effect on their aged synapses, it seems.

But If I were you i'd be wary of using phrases like "my bottom line", when debs is around. It takes the nurses hours to wrench the pillows from his cold clammy hands afterward, and matron's mighty peeved at having to cover the overtime. Plays havoc with her bugdget forecasts

Posted by: Told Ya | Feb 14, 2016 4:17:18 AM | 100

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