Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 06, 2015

Erdogan Moves To Annexes Mosul

The wannabe Sultan Erdogan did not get his will in Syria where he had planned to capture and annex Aleppo. The Russians prevented that. He now goes for his secondary target, Mosul in Iraq, which many Turks see as historic part of their country:

At the end of World War I in October 1918, after the signature of the Armistice of Mudros, British forces occupied Mosul. After the war, the city and the surrounding area became part of the Occupied Enemy Territory Administration (1918-1920), and shortly Mandatory Iraq (1920-1932). This mandate was contested by Turkey which continued to claim the area based on the fact that it was under Ottoman control during the signature of the Armistice. In the Treaty of Lausanne, the dispute over Mosul was left for future resolution by the League of Nations. Iraq's possession of Mosul was confirmed by the League of Nations brokered agreement between Turkey and Great Britain in 1926. Former Ottoman Mosul Vilayet eventually became Nineveh Province of Iraq, but Mosul remained the provincial capital.

Mosul, Iraq's second biggest city with about a million inhabitants, is currently occupied by the Islamic State.

On Friday a column of some 1,200 Turkish soldiers with some 20 tanks and heavy artillery moved into a camp near Mosul. The camp was one of four small training areas where Turkey was training Kurds and some Sunni-Arab Iraqis to fight the Islamic State. The small camps in the northern Kurdish area have been there since the 1990s. They were first established to fight the PKK. Later their Turkish presence was justified as ceasefire monitors after an agreement ended the inner Kurdish war between the KDP forces loyal to the Barzani clan and the PUK forces of the Talabani clan. The bases were actually used to monitor movement of the PKK forces which fight for Kurdish independence in Turkey.

The base near Mosul is new and it was claimed to be just a small weapons training base. But tanks and artillery have a very different quality than some basic AK-47 training. Turkey says it will increase the numbers in these camps to over 2000 soldiers.

Should Mosul be cleared of the Islamic State the Turkish heavy weapons will make it possible for Turkey to claim the city unless the Iraqi government will use all its power to fight that claim. Should the city stay in the hands of the Islamic State Turkey will make a deal with it and act as its protector. It will benefit from the oil around Mosul which will be transferred through north Iraq to Turkey and from there sold on the world markets. In short: This is an effort to seize Iraq's northern oil fields.

That is the plan but it is a risky one. Turkey did not ask for permission to invade Iraq and did not inform the Iraqi government.

The Turks claim that they were invited by the Kurds:

Turkey will have a permanent military base in the Bashiqa region of Mosul as the Turkish forces in the region training the Peshmerga forces have been reinforced, Hürriyet reported.

The deal regarding the base was signed between Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani and Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu, during the latter’s visit to northern Iraq on Nov. 4.

There are two problems with this. First: Massoud Barzani is no longer president of the KRG. His mandate ran out and the parliament refused to prolong it. Second: Mosul and its Bashiqa area are not part of the KRG. Barzani making a deal about it is like him making a deal about Paris.

The Iraqi government and all major Iraqi parties see the Turkish invasion as a hostile act against their country. Abadi demanded the immediate withdrawal of the Turkish forces but it is unlikely that Turkey will act on that. Some Iraqi politicians have called for the immediate dispatch of the Iraqi air force to bomb the Turks near Mosul. That would probably the best solution right now but the U.S. installed Premier Abadi is too timid to go for such strikes. The thinking in Baghdad is that Turkey can be kicked out after the Islamic State is defeated. But this thinking gives Turkey only more reason to keep the Islamic State alive and use it for its own purpose. The cancer should be routed now as it is still small.

Barzani's Kurdistan is so broke that is has even confiscated foreign bank accounts to pay some bills. That may be the reason why Barzani agreed to the deal now. But the roots run deeper. Barzani is illegally selling oil that belongs to the Iraqi government to Turkey. The Barzani family occupies  not only the presidential office in the KRG but also the prime minister position and the local secret services. It is running the oil business and gets a big share of everything else. On the Turkish side the oil deal is handled within the family of President Erdogan. His son in law, now energy minister, had the exclusive right to transport the Kurdish oil through Turkey. Erdogan's son controls the shipping company that transports the oil over sea to the customer, most often Israel. The oil under the control of the Islamic State in Iraq passes the exactly same route. These are businesses that generate hundreds of millions per year.

It is unlikely that U.S., if it is not behinds Turkey new escapade, will do anything about it. The best Iraq could do now is to ask the Russians for their active military support. The Turks insisted on their sovereignty when they ambushed a Russian jet that brushed its border but had no intend of harming Turkey. Iraq should likewise insist on its sovereignty, ask Russia for help and immediately kick the Turks out. The longer it waits the bigger the risk that Turkey will eventually own Mosul.

Posted by b on December 6, 2015 at 01:35 PM | Permalink

Comments
next page »

Cant see Abadi requesting Russian aid, he is a US puppet and even if he did, Russia wont confront Turkey directly, the stakes are too high imo.

Posted by: Lozion | Dec 6, 2015 1:48:37 PM | 1

Also disconcerting is the building of a US base in YPG controlled territory. The powder keg is bloating..

Posted by: Lozion | Dec 6, 2015 1:51:27 PM | 2

McCain reportedly visited Iraq on Monday. Turkey started sending troops on Thursday.

Posted by: yellowsnapdragon | Dec 6, 2015 1:51:51 PM | 3

This should make the U.S. look absurdly untrustworthy. The situation is both insulting and extremely hazardous to people in the U.S.

This is where our Peace Dividend went?

Posted by: blues | Dec 6, 2015 2:02:23 PM | 4

@1 Abadi cant really invite Russia in when he has already ok'd up to 10K Amerricans during MCCain's visit.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/29/john-mccain-lindsey-graham-20000-troops-syria-iraq

"The senators met earlier with the Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, who they said had welcomed the idea of more US troops."

Posted by: yellowsnapdragon | Dec 6, 2015 2:04:06 PM | 5

Meanwhile there are renewed hostilities on the Ukraine/Donbass line of contact, Nuland is in Kiev and Biden is due. Poland's Duda suggests US nukes in Poland may be coming. I would say that Russia's 'western partners' have decided to call Putin's bluff. Since they think that's what it is.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Dec 6, 2015 2:04:54 PM | 6

b says:

It is unlikely that U.S., if it is not behinds Turkey new escapade, will do anything about it

not only is the US behind this escapade, like it was behind the sukhoi downing escapade, but it's also behind the next escapade, the one they're working out the details for as we speak. escalation.

the good Sheikh gives us another year, tops.

Posted by: john | Dec 6, 2015 2:10:31 PM | 7

The senators said removing Assad, who is backed by Russia and Iran, was key to getting Arab Sunni states to back the proposed ground force. So the proposed US/Arab army is pie in the sky.

Posted by: harry law | Dec 6, 2015 2:20:23 PM | 8

MoA is right, kick the Turkey out sooner than later.

If invited by the Iraqi government the Russians could bomb ISIS around Mosul and just happen to 'accidentally' drop some bombs on the heads of the Turks.

Posted by: AriusArmenian | Dec 6, 2015 2:26:14 PM | 9

#2 Also disconcerting is the building of a US base in YPG controlled territory. The powder keg is bloating..

YPG seems to be getting new toys to play with Erdogans kids, too...

Russian military transport aircraft dropped 5 tons of standard weapons and ammunition for the Syrian Kurdish party in the area of Aleppo

Posted by: Kraut | Dec 6, 2015 2:29:22 PM | 10

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/172776/World/Region/Iraqi-defence-minister-asks-Turkey-to-withdraw-tro.aspx
Yesterday on RT there was an article where the Turks were saying that they had come to Iraq "to train Iraqi troops" "in coordination with the mayor of Mosul and the ministry of defence"

which mayor of Mosul? the IS guy? can't find the article on rt

Posted by: Mina | Dec 6, 2015 2:30:31 PM | 11

thanks for covering this b..

it's the newest development and chapter in all this..turkey is friends with isis.. that much is very obvious.. they are friends with kleptocrats, barzani and etc too.. i think @7 john is probably right.. the usa has supported this and turkeys shooting down of the russian plane.. hopefully the world is seeing how things are playing out here, although i doubt western media is going to be doing any critical thinking for anyone in any of it... and clearly the game plan is to carve up the assets and work towards destabilizing any country that gets in the way..

Posted by: james | Dec 6, 2015 2:37:54 PM | 12

hmmm ...
where is the evidence?
a little melodramatic if you ask me.
the kurds have denied the existence of the base reported in hurriyet.
of course the turks and ISIS are closely alligned in Mosul, it was after all the turks that allowed the city to fall and the banks be ransacked handing ISIS millioms in cash ...
but invasion?
if so, the quietest invasion for the last century.
no one but no one in the ME is covering this. And no one is covering it in Turkey.
see what response the Iraqis receive.

Posted by: notforturning | Dec 6, 2015 2:38:17 PM | 13

Iraq to Turn to UNSC if Turkey Fails to Withdraw Troops Within 48 Hours


"Iraq has the right to use all available options, including resorting to the UN Security Council in the absence of the withdrawal of these forces within 48 hours," Abadi said in a statement following the National Security Council meeting.

On advice from Russia? Not from the US. The US/GB/FR veto a resolution condemning Turkish aggression, authorizing aid to Iraq's self-defense and then the Iraqi's denounce the US and EU and align with the Russians? I don't think the Iraqi political class is up to it.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 6, 2015 2:41:08 PM | 14

Iran might also act.

Posted by: Edward | Dec 6, 2015 2:49:56 PM | 15

what more can get say other than, holy shit.

Posted by: Au | Dec 6, 2015 2:54:51 PM | 16

@14

"Baghdad warned that it might..."

Between might and will is alot of room for calls between D.C. and the "Green Zone"..

Posted by: Lozion | Dec 6, 2015 2:56:47 PM | 17

Turkey exploits the chaos in Syria to enhance the Syrian Turkomans and fulfill Erdogan's dreams for territorial and influential expansion in the wider Middle East.

Posted by: nmb | Dec 6, 2015 3:00:37 PM | 18

THE SCREAMING MESSAGE:

Someone please tell me where the UN is in all this. I know the 'Merkins will veto any UNSC resolution but can't Russia even call a meeting there or in the General Assembly to at least air the matter? What is going on here ??

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 3:08:27 PM | 19

The Iraqi's do need to appeal to the UNSC because this is a clear act of aggression, and would be a chapter 7 resolution. How could any member of the Security council veto such a request without establishing the precedent of giving any state the right to invade their neighbor?

Posted by: harry law | Dec 6, 2015 3:08:33 PM | 20

Russia inviting other countries to come to Syria wasn't such a good idea?

Now the situation in Syria is very complicated.
And it seems difficult for Russia to take an initiative to or in Iraq.

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 6, 2015 3:17:22 PM | 21

Does the UN Security Council actually matter in cases like this beyond redundantly proving that international law need not be followed by some nations? Yes, a resolution backing Iraqi sovereignty would feel good, but it would have little influence over real events.

Posted by: yellowsnapdragon | Dec 6, 2015 3:19:01 PM | 22

After reading #14, I still don't see why Russia as a veto wielding power can't request some kind of meeting.

Anyway, how is the following:

1. The League of Nations failed to prevent World War 2 because America was not a member
2. The United Nations failed to prevent World War 3 because America was a member

Is that the scenario we are looking at?

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 3:22:51 PM | 23

I think Putin is unwilling to use the UN if he can shame some other country in doing the obvious -- This is a moment when Iraq NEEDS to assert it's sovereignty and independence from the USA ... and the USA needs to fish or cut bait ... this "should" be very embarassing ... "we" are already flirting with double-crossing the Kurds wrt Erdogan ... will we double-cross Iraq? (shades of the Smother's Brother -- who does mom like best?)
I wouldn't be shocked if Erdogan invoked R2P (to the rescue of human rights) and/or ISIS-IN-MOSUL's threat to Turkey's national security (existential threat) ... the man has moxie.

McCain and Graham can "recommend" and saber-rattle all they want ... they don't have the power to deploy troops or we'd already have WWIII with live ammo in the Ukraine ... oh, yeah, and as far as I can tell McCain simply lies

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 6, 2015 3:31:05 PM | 24

Harry Law, #20
"Iraq would have to complain.."

As far as I know the UN has the power to discuss and possibly act on any grave threat to world peace. Remember the Anschluss when the Austrian government fell and a certain dictator invaded the country and annexed it with the permission of the new "legitimate" government? Or say the victim country is not a member of the UN (say, Taiwan), would the UN be powerless to act or even discuss it?

I don't believe the founders of the UN forgot the Austrian example only 10 years previous to it's foundation, and neglected to provide for similar situations.

Anyone who has chapter and verse, either way, please post a link to it.

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 3:40:11 PM | 25

YellowSnapDragon #22

That right, a UN resolution is just a piece of paper to The Masters of the Universe, but in global flyover country - which is most of the world - the Merkins are hated for their violence, feared for their instability, and despised for their hypocrisy. The Russian ego could do very nicely with an affirmation that it is not alone in it's ideas. Besides if the UN refuses to react to this blatant aggression it certainly clears the decks, at least in part, for any future unilateral action by the RF.

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 3:48:06 PM | 26

Seems Sultan Caliph Erdogan is hell bent on setting the entire region ablaze - which will invariably burn down his own house. This fool has outlived his welcome. Suffice to say, he's still the best fool out there NATO could ever has hope for. They'll dump him when he's done serving his usefulness.

Posted by: Zico | Dec 6, 2015 3:49:48 PM | 27

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 3:08:27 PM | 19

THE SCREAMING MESSAGE:

Someone please tell me where the UN is in all this. I know the 'Merkins will veto any UNSC resolution but can't Russia even call a meeting there or in the General Assembly to at least air the matter? What is going on here ??

Good question. But it appears increasingly that the UN is dead in the water. Putin mentioned recently that the UN should be moved out of the US, by way of suggesting, more or less subtly, that the UN has been reduced to a theatrical farce.

He's right. We're living in a lawless globalized world in which might and finance make right.

Posted by: Danaë | Dec 6, 2015 3:52:57 PM | 28

Just you wait, it will happen to Raqqa too. The recent clamour among Western partners to bomb Syria has all but guaranteed that; to claim a stake in that oil rich province when IS is defeated and an obedient local "Government" is installed under the auspices of "advisors". The oil fields of Northern Iraq and Northern Syria are for the taking.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Dec 6, 2015 3:53:44 PM | 29

The Turks have claimed that they are training the Kurds to fight ISIS for a reason. People forget that the recently passed UN resolution calls for "all means necessary" to combat ISIS and Kurdistan has de-facto autonomy.

I criticized the UN resolution as leaving too much lee-way for mischief. This elicited the response that the resolution "didn't authorize" attacks on Syria and wasn't done under Ch. 7. But territory that ISIS controls isn't NOT controlled by the States of Syria or Iraq so it's hard to see attacking/occupying those territories as "aggression" against a State.

And the resolution also gives ISSG, whose members are mostly anti-Assad, the lead in decision-making for anti-ISIS matters in Iraq and Syria.

In short, the US+UK+France *WILL* block any condemnation of Turkey - and will cite UNSC 2249 when doing so.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 3:56:44 PM | 30

Except ... Iraq has already complained and even issued a 48-hour ultimatum (sputnik link above, iirc) ... Erdogan is playing hardball and the U.S. is going to be forced to chose ...

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 6, 2015 3:59:31 PM | 31

b:

The title of the post has a typo. Please change "annexes" to "annex".

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 4:02:42 PM | 32

Why is McNutty allowed to play General??

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 6, 2015 4:07:27 PM | 33

@ alberich | 26

if the UN refuses to react to this blatant aggression

You mean like Saudis aggression against Yemen, or US against Iraq, or many countries against Syria, etc?

There are literally hundreds of such cases, so Turkey's aggression against Iraq is neither precedent, nor would change anything in International politics.

Iraq is too weak, with US installed puppet, so they will do nothing against invaders (militarily).

If Iraq's Shias grow further, they could expel Turkey. We saw similar case in Lebanon, when despite of their weak army and impotent government, Hezbollah defeated and expelled Israel. Iran is even nearer, with more experience and power this time.

it certainly clears the decks, at least in part, for any future unilateral action by the RF.

Nope, RF had its hands untied for a long time now, but its weaker than NATO in power and economic projection, therefore Russia has to play by the rules, even though the West isnt, never did, never will. At least Russia by constantly insisting on UN rule slows down the West a little bit, and its the most Russia can expect.

Posted by: Harry | Dec 6, 2015 4:12:27 PM | 34

@21 I don't think Russia can make big moves there due to logistical realities, and containing ISIL and saving secular Syria is the primary objective. Also Iraq and the Kurds can't be counted on to be beneficial partners

Posted by: bbbb | Dec 6, 2015 4:13:20 PM | 35

Russia blundered by voting in favour of that UN resolution (after the Paris false flag)?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/21/un-calls-for-all-able-member-states-to-join-fight-against-isis

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 6, 2015 4:23:26 PM | 36

James says:

i think @7 john is probably right

yeah, probably, but that's obvious. but did you listen to Sheikh Imran Hosein's words?

Posted by: john | Dec 6, 2015 4:25:38 PM | 37

Erdogan's decision to send forces into Iraq was made about the same time that the Obama Administration announced that they will send an "expeditionary force" to Iraq to fight ISIS, train Iraqis, gather intel, and rescue hostages.

The US forces are also unwelcome. But it hardly matters. Because UNSC: all necessary means FUBAR. Roger that!

US-Turkish Coordination? Not to the small minded who focus, or allow themselves to be led to focus, on one incident at time.

A double-game by US-Turkey-Israel-Saudis? Fighting and supporting ISIS at the same time? Un-ba-leivable.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 4:28:34 PM | 38

I still tend to forget that "the United States foreign policy" is obviously fractured, and that different camps in the Obama Administration may be driving this clown car to this inevitable collision ... just because ... I almost think that some of these actors enjoy deliberately making Obama look feckless and fence-straddling.

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 6, 2015 4:34:16 PM | 39

Iraq ... invite China to remove Turks? Greece?

Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 6, 2015 4:38:33 PM | 40

News reel from Lebanese Daily Star (20 minutes ago):

Turkey says it will to halt transfers of troops to north Iraq for now
13 minutes ago
Poland denies considering request for nuclear weapons
1 hour ago
France's Sarkozy says 'No' to any alliance with Socialists in election
1 hour ago
France's far-right National Front leads in regional elections
2 hours ago
California shooters may have planned multiple attacks: government source
2 hours ago
Iraq's Abadi says could resort to U.N. over Turkish deployment

A protest in UN has to be raised by Iraq. What will happen later is a bit delicate, and there are some unknowns. Apparently, Barzani administration of KR made a total financial mess, and a takeover by the central government is even less attractive than at the time of expensive oil. Is it credible that KRG managed to have a deficit of 7 billion dollars in 2014? And financed it, apparently, by forcing the local branches of Iraqi state bank to give him loans, and thus those branches having no liquidity? And a UAE company requests some multi-billion loan to be repaid? The loans and the requests can be a some type of influence buying and subsequent pressure, so Turkey, Qatar and UAE have a good method of grabbing Barzani by the jugular and dictate (I do not believe puppet theory literally). And Turkish troops may have the role of janissaries (propping the rule and oblivious to the public sentiment).

Actually, Turks DID notice that Barzani's writ does not extend to the Niniveh province, so the pro-AKP Al Sabah paper cites "the exiled governor of Niniveh (Mosul)" as the dignitary who authorized Turkey to create military camps in that province. (Of course , the temporal limits of Barzani's writ expired, and before the expiration, he did not have constitutional authority to independently conduct foreign policy, foreign trade etc.)

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 6, 2015 4:47:47 PM | 41

At least things are improving in Northeastern Latakia, in last two months SAA cleared just 60 sq.km, but in last 3 days - another 75 sq.km.

In the last 72 hours, the Syrian Armed Forces have seized over 75 square kilometers of territory from the Islamist rebels in Jabal Al-Akrad; this number will likely double in the coming days as the pro-government forces intensify their assault.

http://goo.gl/80qN39

Not so great news from Kurds (YPG), they signed ceasefire with FSA, Al Nusra Front, Ahrar ash-Sham and other jihadis.

http://goo.gl/UZNzYl

Posted by: Harry | Dec 6, 2015 4:49:09 PM | 42

Susan Sunflower: ...United States foreign policy" is obviously fractured...

Really? How so? Because some times we are 'informed' by our controlled press that there are differences of opinion?

Isn't that a great way to keep our enemies guessing?

PS Western publics are also "the enemy" to the extent that we can interfere with the plans of TPTB. The establishment has not forgotton the 'lessons' of Vietnam!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 4:49:49 PM | 43

Too much fog. How many NATO members will fight against Russia? USA, UK, Turkey, and who else? Is there really any other alternative to war as I doubt this will remain confined to proxies? Yes, the Turks and Daesh must be driven from the land along with the Kurdish Mafiosi, so perhaps an alliance between Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, Lebanon, and China will suffice. Do they all have the political will? And numerous other questions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 6, 2015 4:55:05 PM | 44

Too much fog. How many NATO members will fight against Russia? USA, UK, Turkey, and who else? Is there really any other alternative to war as I doubt this will remain confined to proxies? Yes, the Turks and Daesh must be driven from the land along with the Kurdish Mafiosi, so perhaps an alliance between Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, Lebanon, and China will suffice. Do they all have the political will? And numerous other questions.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 6, 2015 4:55:31 PM | 45

Not accounted for here are Iran and the Shiite militias. Abadi could well find his head on a spike if he bends over to the likes of McCain and Graham. Iran's national security is under grave threat. One of the last arrows in Russia's quiver would be to provide Iran with "defensive" nukes and sophisticated air defense technology. What does either country have to lose at this point? Now that it's clear that the Witless West, Erdogan, and the House of Saud are using Assad/Daesh/Crimea as a flimsy pretext to change the world map.

The Saudis have been executing Shiite "terrorists" lately. They will have a problem. Greed, arrogance, and stupidity... It was always thus.

Posted by: chuckvw | Dec 6, 2015 4:57:14 PM | 46

b: what can be done about the inadvertent double posting?

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 4:59:29 PM | 47

Sorry for the double; I suspected it might when it said "facebook posting error" as I don't use facebook.

Anyway, another gem thanks to the friends of Angry Arab: "Germany rejects Germany's criticism of Saudi Arabia" http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2015/12/an-actual-headline-germany-rejects.html

"German government on Friday rejected the findings of a damning report on Saudi Arabia by its own spy agency and called Riyadh a key partner..." Link to article at AA link above.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 6, 2015 5:06:48 PM | 48

Germany seems to zigzag its way through this issue. Vice Chancellor Gabriel has just made things worse (or rather better)

“We must make it clear to the Saudis that the time of looking the other way is over,” German Vice Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs Sigmar Gabriel said on Sunday, referring to the Western policy of turning a blind eye on Saudi ties to extremist groups worldwide.

“From Saudi Arabia, Wahhabi mosques are financed throughout the world,” he said, adding that in Germany, many people “considered dangerous persons emerge from these communities.”

Thomas Oppermann, the chairman of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, which is headed by Gabriel, also said, “We will prevent Saudi help in the building or financing of mosques in Germany, where Wahhabi ideas are to be disseminated.”

He asserted that Wahhabism provided the “complete ideology” of the Takfiri Daesh terrorist group – which is causing death and destruction mainly in Iraq and Syria.

I think it has dawned on Germany's political class that to take in millions of Syrian, Iraqi and Afghan refugees provides a fertile recruiting ground ...

Posted by: somebody | Dec 6, 2015 5:17:40 PM | 49

Mary Jane Watson: (Screaming)
Mary Jane: (Screaming)
Shandi Finnessey: (Screaming)
Shandi: (Screaming)
Carla Spalletta: (Screaming)
Carla: (Screaming)
Shandi Screams: No
Shandi Screams: Noooooo
Shandi Screams: Nooooooooo
Shandi Screams: Nooooooooooooo
Mary Jane Watson: (Screaming)
Mary Jane: (Screaming)

Posted by: alberich | Dec 6, 2015 5:48:12 PM | 50

@34 Harry ' If Iraq's Shias grow further, they could expel Turkey. We saw similar case in Lebanon, when despite of their weak army and impotent government, Hezbollah defeated and expelled Israel. Iran is even nearer, with more experience and power this time. '

That sounds do-able. When they're finished with the Turks they can help the Kurds get rid of the Americans in Northeastern Syria. The Russians would only help if Iraq asked for help ... they might yet. China is all hat and smiles - win-win - no cattle.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 6, 2015 5:53:56 PM | 51

Big Butt Screaming: And The Woods And The Hood
Butt Screaming: And The Woods And The Hood
Ashley Olsen: (Ashley Screaming)
Ashley Olsen: Ashley Screaming
Mary Kate Olsen: (Mary Kate Screaming)
Mary Kate Olsen: Mary Kate Screaming
Ashley Olsen: (Ashley Screaming)
Ashley Olsen: Ashley Screaming
Mary-Kate Olsen: (Mary-Kate Screaming)
Mary-Kate Olsen: Mary-Kate Screaming
Mary Jane Watson: (Screaming)
Mary Jane: (Screaming)
Carla Spalletta: (Screaming)
Carla Spalletta: Screaming
Carla: (Screaming)
Carla: Screaming
Carla Spalletta: (Carla Screaming)
Carla Spalletta: Carla Screaming
Carla: (Carla Screaming)
Carla: Carla Screaming

Posted by: alberich screaming | Dec 6, 2015 5:54:38 PM | 52

Doesn’t matter if the Russians didn’t bite the bait, we still can continue on the original plan, the is the weak under belly of Russia, NATO was to own the “lake” apparently for that she is ready for a tactical nuke war. Closing the Mediterranean to Russian shipping can mean and translate to Russian as to closing in and out accesses to everyone else, by nuking Gibraltar and Suez.

“Turkey might close its straits to Russian ships, if its national security is threatened, according to the Ankara-based International University Council's (IUC) chairman Prof. Orhan Hikmet Azizoğlu.

According to a news report published by Anadolu Agency on Sunday, Azizoğlu said, "If Turkey and Russian are conflicting parties [in case of a war], since Turkey had the universal right of protecting the country, it could close the Bosporus to Russian ships and never let them pass through the straits ever again."
http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2015/12/06/turkey-could-close-straits-to-russian-ships-if-national-security-threatened

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 6, 2015 6:08:28 PM | 53

Maybe Mr Putin you are being too reasonable, too predictable dare I say. So Turkey is upping the ante. And that’s just the beginning. You should drop all this Western partners crap. Your enemies are not your partners. They want to destroy you and your country and then steal its resources. It’s time to remind your “partners” and especially their impoverished masses that your toys include dozens of “Satans” - a single SS-18 or R-36 can take out a whole American state, if not three; some pretty devilishly quiet submarines that sit right next to your “partners” East (and probably West) coast with devastating capabilities as well as all the other frightening gear. You’re in the unique position in the world of being able to smash the Americans. These guys have been bullying their way around the world for decades. And in their Ukraine coup they were foolish enough to take on the one country that can beat them. Of course, you did the right thing there by not intervening. But in Syria Russia is much more exposed. Therefore being nice and reasonable does not cut it anymore. Who are you trying to win round with all the nice words? The Europeans? No chance. Step out of line even an inch and one of their big companies get slapped with a huge fine (BNP – France, VW – Germany) or forced to lose a very valuable contract (Mistrals). If the Brits even give an inkling of rebellion the City of London would get annihilated by American hedge funds. The only way to stop a nuclear war is to threaten one.

Posted by: Lochearn | Dec 6, 2015 6:08:42 PM | 54

@ Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 4:49:49 PM | 43 Fractured ...
We keep having these whiplash moments where, for instance, John Kerry makes a statement, to be followed by words or actions by Obama doing something contradictory/incompatable... McCain appears to be being allowed to conduct flagrantly neocon negotiations as an at least "casually" accepted representative of the USA ... it's hard to know on what level corporate interests (and promises) may be being "negotiated" in sort of ex officio advancement of policies (which given the State Department's role in overtly flagrantly "advancing American business interests") may be a third or fourth line of 'attack'
Publicly stated "policies" and objectives seem to be entirely PR events, mostly for domestic consumption, because it's always and election year ... and that's always job #1. shrug.
We played hardball with Maliki for years ... threatening to withdraw support if he didn't bend to our wishes ... we may be doing the same thing with Albadi ... We crucified Karzai to the point where donors were caught between fullfilling the pledges and looking like they were aiding and abetting corruption (oh, and angering "us") ...

Elsewhere, I'm getting "pussy riot" vibe off of the stories about the female Kurdish commandos ... too much press and the photos are too good ... in fact the whole northern "experiment" seems likely ersatz, government in a box ... regardless someone wiht deep pockets would appear to be "making it happen" as an ersatz/potemkin "alternative" ... forgive me if I'm cynical ... but it's being presented as a "good news, don't look a gift horse in the mouth" kind of way -- why suddenly now and where did this come from...

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 6, 2015 6:13:13 PM | 55

It may be time also for China to step up and help defend Iraq. Turkish occupation of Mosul is but the first step towards Turkish domination of Central Asia including Xinjiang and it would be in China's interests to help nip that whacky ambition of wannabe Caliph Erdogan's in the bud.

Iraq should be asking China as well as Russia and Iran for support.

Posted by: Jen | Dec 6, 2015 6:25:02 PM | 56

@ 54 Lochearn

http://heiwaco.tripod.com/bomb.htm

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 6, 2015 6:30:56 PM | 57

Iraq May Seek "Direct Military Intervention From Russia" to Expel Turkish Troops
Includes additional 'color' that is interesting.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out since, as I noted above, US and Turkey likely will make the case that their deployments are in-line with UNSC 2249.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 6, 2015 6:31:37 PM | 58

“He now goes for his secondary target, Mosul in Iraq, which many Turks see as historic part of their country:”

Just one parallel. As we know the names of present countries are colonial names. Those countries have been created after Sykes-Picot Agreement. That area, and of course and much wider, was under the rule of the Ottomans for centuries before the British and the French invented them. By the way Kuwait is the British imperial invention as well, they want to have a port for its colonial trading and to prevent the Germans reaching this point. And about Nazi settler state with European Jews there one shouldn't waste a time explaining it.

So, if Russia could "bring back" Crimea why shouldn't the Turks take Mosul back? Only basis for the Russian claim (quasi historical) is that there are Russian "majority" in Crimea!?

by Ragnar Redbeard, Might is Right


Might was Right when Caesar bled upon the stones of Rome,
Might was Right when Genghis led his hordes over Danube's foam,
And Might was Right when German troops poured down through Paris way,
It's the Gospel of the Ancient World and the Logic of Today.

for the rest use search engine.

Certainly both the Russians and the Turks are using military Might to achieve its goals. Something that the West perfected trough centuries before and glorified by Ragnar Redbeard (pseudonym) and the like people.

Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 6, 2015 6:36:21 PM | 59

Certainly both the Russians and the Turks are using military Might to achieve its goals. Something that the West perfected trough centuries before and glorified by Ragnar Redbeard (pseudonym) and the like people.

Posted by: Neretva'43 | Dec 6, 2015 6:36:21 PM | 59

As a matter of historical pedantry, (1) the killers of Ceasar did not outlive him much, Genghis probably even did not know where Danube is (Mongols demolished Hungary in a single pass, never to return), Germans did not enjoyed their passage under Arc de Triomphe for long. A feat by an army, or a dagger, more often than not has fleeting benefits.

Turkish policies are perhaps less contradictory than Western, but still they are sufficiently inconsistent that Turks may rue the days when they elected and re-elected Erdogan clique. The few battalions in Nineveh and Kurdistan do not represent true military force, perhaps a bit too many to be simply for "training", but far too few to fight ISIS. Training and creating loyalty of local beneficiaries are chief goals, but (1) Barzani plays a convenient tool because his position in Kurdistan is week, but among lesser Kurds Turkey is not popular, and Barzani is not that popular either -- the last elections in KR were for the assembly and his party is in minority, and other parties refuse a coalition, and extending his mandate as a leader. He controls peshmerga and delivers their pay, but he is also bankrupt, so that control may be fleeting too. Then there are Sunni Arabs of Iraq that COULD be a realistic hope for grateful clients. However, there is a small difficulty on the way to sublime consumation of that relationship: "pet cobra" relationship between ISIS and Erdogan.

So far, ISIS was convenient for Erdogan and vice versa. His secret service trades with them, and they provide useful death squads at home. But a cobra never makes a pet, and it does not blink when it bites the hand that fed it. You may try to control a movement like ISIS with secret agents, but what normally happens that a substantial number of them, including the leadership, gets converted to the extremist ideology. The best example is Pakistan, ISI and Sunni extremists there and in India. A prime minister who crosses them does not live long. Observe the business of the "safe zone" in the north of Aleppo province, and scant progress on the border of that "zone" with ISIS. However convenient it would be to take it over etc., Turkey simply could not do it. Similarly, Sunni Arabs of Nineveh and Anbar would be genuinely grateful if Turkey defeated ISIS and imposed an administration more friendly than from cruel ISIS or unfriendly Shia dominated Baghdad government. But it is not clear if Erdogan would enjoy the glory longer than Benazir Bhutto, and if his own MIT would protect him or rather than lend a hand to the assassins.

Seems to me that in the games of might, Erdogan does not think of too many moves in advance, perhaps for two reasons. One is that his temper notoriously takes the better of him. The second is that while very cunning and effective within Turkey, he is surprisingly ignorant of the world abroad. Example: at the beginning of the current Ukrainian crisis, Erdogan (or the equally intellectually limited pet hamster of Erdogan, certain Davutouglu) said that Turkey, as the only country that borders both Ukraine and Russia, will play a major role. Either his map knowledge came from the historical books on Ottoman Empire (note the year 1670), or he imagined himself to be the Sultan of Belarus. Example two: championing historical achievements of the Muslim people like reaching America and building a mosque in Cuba that noted by Christopher Columbus who came later -- he even offered Cuba to rebuild that mosque, something that the government there declined.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 6, 2015 7:28:00 PM | 60

b, thanks for the history lesson in this post. Very helpful.

Also, I can't find who posted it but the link to Gareth Jenkins' history is also very helpful in understanding this piss-up over Turks "invading" Iraq. I'll re-post it, w/ gratitude.

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=4807#.VmTCnzOgvNr

Whatever the issue, a little back-story always goes a long way to answering: WTF is going on?

Posted by: Denis | Dec 6, 2015 8:17:05 PM | 61

[...] It is unlikely that U.S., if it is not behinds Turkey new escapade, will do anything about it. The best Iraq could do now is to ask the Russians for their active military support. The Turks insisted on their sovereignty when they ambushed a Russian jet that brushed its border but had no intend of harming Turkey. Iraq should likewise insist on its sovereignty, ask Russia for help and immediately kick the Turks out. The longer it waits the bigger the risk that Turkey will eventually own Mosul.

Thanks b for an excellent report and summation of a volatile powder keg.

Every crisis is an opportunity, and there are several forces willing to take advantage of Erdogan's latest (dumb?) move. Iran and Russia are waiting for an opening to move Iraq once and for all to the Axis of Resistance, and Russians/Syrians will take full advantage of the distraction created by the change of focus from Syria to Iraq, an obvious concession Syria is lost for Erdogan's ambitions, to make a push to the finish line.

The Russians will be more than happy to bomb Turks to bits just about anywhere, Iraq included, it's just not that simple. Every move in the Syraq chessboard can have strategic consequences, with so many active military forces on site and counting, and different agendas at work. It is yet not clear enough who is behind Turkey, and what are their strategic objectives beyond the obvious, taking Iraqi territory for oil ambitions.

From the pov of int'l law, it is a stupid move, easy to counteract, but no so easy given the complexity of the forces and their combined interests in Iraq and Syria. The next 48 hours will be crucial for the 4+1 strategic objectives in the region, as the fate of Iraq will be decided by Erdogan's probe into their determination to block any threats to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 6, 2015 8:47:31 PM | 62

As things look, Turkey is determining to press on with US behind it. WW3 seem most likely. So be it and ain't running or hiding!

The ironic part Obama was awarded Nobel Peace Prize before even tested. Not only he'll know as a warmonger, drone murderers but the President started WW3.

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2009/press.html

"The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009 is to be awarded to President Barack Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. The Committee has attached special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.

Obama has as President created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations. Thanks to Obama's initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role......Oslo, October 9, 2009"

SHIT!

Posted by: Jack Smith | Dec 6, 2015 8:53:12 PM | 63

@Susan Sunflower@39

[...] I almost think that some of these actors enjoy deliberately making Obama look feckless and fence-straddling.

...And I am sure Obama enjoys looking "feckless and fence-straddling" making the world believe he's a victim of "these actors."

Such gullibility...this late into the game...

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 6, 2015 9:20:16 PM | 64

The Nobel committee has shown itself to be a giant ass-kisser. Maybe there was a time when the award meant something, but, no longer.

Posted by: ben | Dec 6, 2015 9:21:43 PM | 65

The inanely dishonest and impractical League of Nations certainly sowed a lot of seeds for future discontent before it was disbanded and replaced by the similarly corrupt, politicised and toothless tool of the neo-Colonial, divide-and-conquer crowd, the so-called United Nations.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 6, 2015 9:28:05 PM | 66

Lone Wolf -- I've seen nothing to suggest Obama has developed any particular expertise in foreign affairs ... and he had zero experience beforehand ... and nothing to remotely suggest he's the genius people claim he is ... yes, imho, he's following minders ... he's really not a dynamic person, much less leader ... again, imho. Clinton had a fire in the belly, even Bush ... Obama ... I just do not see it.

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 6, 2015 9:34:12 PM | 67

China signed some oil contracts with Iraq in 2008. What has happened to them. 3B investment.

Posted by: shadyl | Dec 6, 2015 9:38:12 PM | 68

@42. Not good if true but even there is confusion, the Almasdar article says the YPG agreed to a cease fire but not the SDF. The opposite would make more sense if a faction decided to put down their arms in exchange for US support..

Posted by: Lozion | Dec 6, 2015 9:39:43 PM | 69

From RT:

https://www.rt.com/news/324930-turkish-invasion-iraq-reaction/

Posted by: ben | Dec 6, 2015 9:41:55 PM | 70

@36
Russia blundered by voting in favour of that UN resolution (after the Paris false flag)?

I'm really hoping that the ISIS Resolution is not an underhanded strategy to redraw borders like Turkey's misusing it that way. But shouldn't caveats have been considered? How much is known about this resolution? I mean if an ISIS group set up camp in Canada's BC would that give the U.S. the right to move troops there?

How can fighting ISIS be used to breach another country's sovereignty? It's ludicrous.

Is this resolution the same kind of ruse that the Libya No-Fly Zone resolution was?

I can't believe Putin would step into another resolution blind-fold. There must be caveats with that resolution:

After the vote, Churkin also added that the French delegates included “important corrections introduced by Russia” into the resolution.

https://www.rt.com/news/322931-un-resolution-fight-terrorism-isis/

So my question is: What are those “important corrections introduced by Russia” into the resolution?

Look Putin was once bitten on the Libya resolution and I can only hope he was twice shy on the Syria resolution.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 6, 2015 9:53:41 PM | 71

Denis@61 "Whatever the issue, a little back-story always goes a long way to answering: WTF is going on?"

I couldn't agree more. In fact, there's a parallel back-story that's pretty much ignored by... well, everybody. It involves Iraqi Turkmen, their ethnic cleansing by the Kurds and the loss of the Iraqi Turkmen city of Kirkuk to the Kurds.

Turkey and Iraqi Turkmen share a language and ethnicity, but not much else. Iraqi Turkmen have lived in Tel Afar, Erbil, Mosul and Kirkuk for several centuries - they consider themselves Iraqi (or at least a cultural minority in Iraq). They do not consider themselves Turkish or members of the Turkish state. They don't want Turkey to 'reclaim' Mosul - they just want Turkmen rights to be recognized in Mosul. And they would also like the Peshmerga to stop killing them. It is Turkey that attempts to exploit this tenuous connection to Iraqi Turkmen to justify some of their actions in Iraq. Turkey and Erdogan, in fact, are far better allies of Barzani then they are or ever were of Iraqi Turkmen.

Part of the U.S. and Israel's independent Fake Kurdish state scheme involved decades of ethnically cleansing Turkmen from the Iraqi cities they called home and replacing them with displaced Kurds. Tal Afar was almost entirely Turkmen (half a million), but was depopulated and leveled by the Americans at the behest of the Kurds during the war. Technically not 'the Kurds' but the two top U.S.-backed clans/parties: Barzani's KDP and Talabani's PUK.

This is a longish blog article, but explains the Iraqi Turkmen issues in any potential fake Kurdistan. It's imperative to understand this to understand how ZATO has steered and whitewashed the usurped Kurdish independence movement.

Turkmens, Turkmeneli and the Musul Region

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 6, 2015 9:57:38 PM | 72

Iraq can repudiate last month's deal with the Yankees any time it wants to, by the simple expedient of loudly citing evidence of Yankee duplicity. Russia will probably advise Iraq on the timing. One more problem solved.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 6, 2015 9:57:58 PM | 73

Re: Posted by: Kraut | Dec 6, 2015 2:29:22 PM | 10

Doesn't the building of a US base in YPG territory in Syria then legitimise any and all Russian incursions into Eastern Ukraine for exactly the same reasons.

Did I miss something - did the Syrian Government invite the US in to build a base on Syrian sovereign territory??? Of course not!

Posted by: Julian | Dec 6, 2015 10:00:53 PM | 74

According to PressTv:

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/12/06/440604/Turkey-Iraq-troops-mosul-

Turkey will not add any additional troops to the Mosul contingent already deployed.

Whatever numbers are there will remain until further notice.

Posted by: CarlD | Dec 6, 2015 10:13:56 PM | 75

@Piotr 60
I agree with you. Erdogan and his pet hamster Davutoglu are incompetent when it comes to understand the Arab world. They are able to manipulate the Turks using religion and the modern development, but they remain infantile in their foreign policy. They have failed in just everything they tried, from Egypt to Syria. Even the Qataris and Saudis have become aware of the murderous stupidity of the AKP in Syria.
Barzani is a dead man walking and his days are counted. If he falls, Turkey would have lost a critical oil supplier and will be even more isolated. The Iranians and Russians should accelerate the toppling of Barzani and his clique. That would be a fatal blow to Erdogan.

Posted by: virgile | Dec 6, 2015 10:46:32 PM | 76

@Lochearn@54

Maybe Mr Putin you are being too reasonable, too predictable dare I say. So Turkey is upping the ante. And that’s just the beginning. You should drop all this Western partners crap. Your enemies are not your partners. They want to destroy you and your country and then steal its resources.

Mr. Putin already knows the "partners" short and long term planning and ambitions, his reasonableness a calculated attitude, his predictability a mask that hides a volcano under the snow.

The "Western partners crap" is an approach with multiple goals, one of them is to keep a "friendly" attitude towards people and countries he knows are hellbent on destroying Russia and himself. Another one has to do with his assessment this is a long term struggle, blocks and alliances will shift along the way, better to keep the door open, just in case.

Putting "the Western partners" in one cat-bag and treat them all like enemies, as you suggest, will only give them the necessary ammunition to isolate Russia further, and will keep Russia from exploiting cracks within them. For example, France dropping their "Assad must go" demand is a clear victory for Russia, which continued dealing with Hollande even after the Mistrals reversal.

Putin understands very well the intricacies of Western politics, he did not make any inflammatory statements against France, did not denounce Hollande as the puppet of the empire he is, treated him with respect...and waited for his opportunity. The timing was right after 13/11, and Putin was ready to pick the fruits of his effort.

Putin knows changes will be slow to come, as in the example of France, forced to change policy only after a brutal attack, but better keep on trying than slamming the door on the "Western partners."

Keep your friends close...

[...] The only way to stop a nuclear war is to threaten one.

That is the most irresponsible statement I ever read in MoA, foolish nihilistic delusion for short-term gains, a perilous road Putin condemned on his recent address to the Russian Federal Assembly.

[...] But, if they expected a nervous or hysterical reaction from us, if they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it. They won’t get any response meant for show or even for immediate political gain. They won’t get it [...]

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 6, 2015 10:58:12 PM | 77


b: PLEASE CORRECT THAT HEADLINE !!!

Posted by: MoonEd | Dec 6, 2015 11:10:40 PM | 78

@Susan Sunflower@67

Lone Wolf -- I've seen nothing to suggest Obama has developed any particular expertise in foreign affairs ... and he had zero experience beforehand ... and nothing to remotely suggest he's the genius people claim he is ... yes, imho, he's following minders ... he's really not a dynamic person, much less leader ... again, imho. Clinton had a fire in the belly, even Bush ... Obama ... I just do not see it.

Even Bush? Sorry, I believe Obama is a war criminal, spineless figurehead, who pretends to give people the perception you subscribed above, someone I intensely dislike, but next to Bush, Obama is a genius. Bush was (is) a total nincompoop, a figurehead Cheney manipulated at whim, a total idiot who couldn't even put a sentence together, let alone a speech.

As for "expertise in foreign affairs," well, Bush was the laughingstock of every head of state he ever met. They couldn't believe the US could have elected such full-time idiot for president, and they all started to believe, justifiably, we are all idiots in good 'ol USA.

Maybe they are right, what do you think?

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 6, 2015 11:19:57 PM | 79

@Susan Sunflower@67

Lone Wolf -- I've seen nothing to suggest Obama has developed any particular expertise in foreign affairs ... and he had zero experience beforehand ... and nothing to remotely suggest he's the genius people claim he is ... yes, imho, he's following minders ... he's really not a dynamic person, much less leader ... again, imho. Clinton had a fire in the belly, even Bush ... Obama ... I just do not see it.

Even Bush? Sorry, I believe Obama is a war criminal, spineless figurehead, who pretends to give people the perception you subscribed above, someone I intensely dislike, but next to Bush, Obama is a genius. Bush was (is) a total nincompoop, a figurehead Cheney manipulated at whim, a total idiot who couldn't even put a sentence together, let alone a speech.

As for "expertise in foreign affairs," well, Bush was the laughingstock of every head of state he ever met. They couldn't believe the US could have elected such full-time idiot for president, and they all started to believe, justifiably, we are all idiots in good 'ol USA.

Maybe they are right, what do you think?

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 6, 2015 11:24:43 PM | 80

This is grotesque madness.

Remember the 'good old days' when the most likely spark to start WW3 was Pakistan and India.
Well that's way behind, and it's been replaced by the US Empire and it's puppets going hard after Syria, and now Iraq.

There is no way that the Germans, the Turks, the French and the British would all commit troops or their military without US backing/planning. Sure makes Obama look like he's leading from behind doesn't it ? Well, At least to partisans or morons.

Lone Wolf, Russia does not need "western partners" to fight terrorism in Syria, At all.
There is an infinity of relationships outside of the realm of Syrian terrorism, that Russia can potentially have good relations with the West.
For Russia To invite the West into Syria( and I was the first online that I've read, to denounce that invitation as a serious mistake) is to invite disaster, and now is looking to be the greatest threat to start WW3. It's still a small chance, but growing all the time.

The west would have anyway inserted itself into Syria if it was confrontational enough, and without serious Russian resistance, and used a proxy terrorist attack just like Paris looks like it was for public groundswell support.

Posted by: tom | Dec 7, 2015 12:09:34 AM | 81

@PavewayIV@72

Thanks for the link, and for your insights into the Kurdish Question.

A few threads ago I posted a link for you from CIA mouthpiece SOHR on very confusing developments in Syrian Kurds territory. I don't think you saw it, but if you read this and I post it again, would you mind to shed some light on it? I don't even know whether is relevant anymore, or if I can find it. Please let me know. Thanks.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 7, 2015 12:14:14 AM | 82

Saturday evening Thomas van Linge tweeted about rumours that ISIS fighters have disappeared from the streets of Mosul. Combined with this "Invasion", I was reminded of a press conference in Turkish parliament in September 2014, where a HDP MP claimed that

The group being presented to us as ISIS is not just formed of jihadist militants. We have information that the majority of ISIS’s fighting forces are formed of Turkish Special Forces who were cutting off the ears and noses of Kurdish fighters in the 1990s. These Special Forces have been staying in hotels and safe houses in Mosul for months and have travelled from Mosul to Makhmour, from Makhmour to Sinjar and are in Kobane now commanding and determining the strategy of ISIS. There are said to be around two thousand of them.

So could this be an evacuation plan? You "invade" with a few hundred, send your Special Forces from the town to the rural base, let the Iraqis create international pressure and then withdraw back to Turkey with the "2,000" you've announced to send? And then Mosul gets "liberated" as easy as it "fell"? We'll see.

If not, I think they are just opening a new supply line after YPG cut Raqqa from Mosul and the Russian are bombing the Turtkish border in the west.

Posted by: CE | Dec 7, 2015 12:21:41 AM | 83

No, but everyone knew the deal with Bush -- Bush would wow the citizenry and Cheney would run things ... However, Bush did have the "fire in the belly" to show up his dad ... and get the evil-doers which was a large part of what fed his popularity ... yes, he was a cartoon character, and arguably an imbecile, you know, like Reagan. People understood he had a massive staff of "well-seasoned" advisors. I was always amused because Bush so palpably hated Washington and hated being president -- He and Laura were homebodies who genuinely didn't socialize. I find Obama so drab and lack-luster ... his eyes are dull and I find his formal speech delivery condescending ... and numbing. When Obama was running for president everyone gushed over his genius ... he may be quite intelligent, bright and quick, but I can't remember anyone -- any single person -- gushing over him as I have heard so many people gush over Bill Clinton's ability to tap into encyclopedic knowledge.

I don't use the term "evil" often, but Obama is self-serving and deceptive in ways that come close ... and he appears to have no conscience ... I've suspected for almost a year, he's been counting the days until it's finally over... having first given up on most of his campaign promises and more recently giving up on his "legacy" ...

In contrast, Hollande was an absolute laughing stock and is now respected for his full-bodied, full-throated response to Paris -- yes, it's theatre. Merkel was a nebbish nobody who became "leader of all Europe" because she was willing to negotiate, to show up, again and again .... Don't have like either of them ... but they both have a "sweat equity" right to respect that Obama lacks.

I recall reading that Putin was appalled at how badly informed Obama was on some early meeting ... making chit chat about the news of the day, iirc, Obama didn't know about the "news of the day" ... it was sort of like Condie Rice's bad Russian fluency ... Having high expectations, Putin was just shocked ... and appalled ... because part of his "every morning" was an hour's briefing on the "news of the day" .. not just prepping for his day's schedule of meetings.

Posted by: Susan Sunflower | Dec 7, 2015 12:40:59 AM | 84

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-base-in-iraq-targets-mosuls-liberation-from-isil.aspx?pageID=238&nID=92159&NewsCatID=409 All comments about Iraqi chief by 3d parties sound like he might be in favor of Turkey's action, pretends not to be for citizen's ears. Exception: Statement he'll take it to the UN.

---

Iraqi Kurdistan can declare itself an independent country, US & European countries, Israel, etc recognise it and it invites Turkey in. fait acompli, legally?? They intend it to become an independent state anyway, so why not sooner?
---
I'm sure I heard UNSC meeting December 17 something about combatting terrorism, but I can't recall what, can't find it on UN calendar.

Posted by: Penelope | Dec 7, 2015 1:13:39 AM | 85

Obama Addresses Nation on Security Issues


“We will destroy ISIL [Islamic State or Daesh, an organization banned in many countries including Russia and the United states] and any other organization that tries to harm us,” the president said.

He noted that the US military will continue to "hunt down" terrorists in any country that's "necessary".

He reiterated his support to forces fighting against terrorism, adding that Washington continues training of "tens of thousands" Iraqis and Syrians fighting Daesh.


"... in any country that's necessary."

BREAKING: International Coalition bombs Syrian Arab Army positions in Deir Ezzor


For the first time since the U.S. President Barack Obama announced an aerial campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) in Syria, the Anti-ISIS Coalition of predominately Arab states have struck a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) camp in the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor, killing 1 soldier and wounding half dozen others on Sunday evening.

According to a military source from the Syrian Arab Army’s 104th Airborne Brigade of the Republican Guard, a U.S. warplane struck the military camp belonging to the SAA’s 137th Artillery Brigade (17th Reserve Division) in the village of ‘Ayyash, killing 1 soldier instantly and leaving 6 soldiers in critical condition – including an officer.

The Syrian Arab Army’s 137th Brigade has been protecting the civilians in the village of ‘Ayyash from the swarming ISIS fighters that are attempting to break into the provincial capital of the Deir Ezzor Governorate from the northern flank; this airstrike only boosted ISIS’ positions inside this village and the nearby broadcast tower.

As of now; it is not clear who the U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition aircraft meant to target, but it was clear to the Syrian Arab Army soldiers that the airstrikes were inaccurate and lacked logistical comprehension of the ground situation in the Deir Ezzor Governorate.


Obama is killing Syrians with his own bloody hands ...

Iraq: No to Turkish, US troops


Baghdad’s rebuke of Turkey comes just a day after Abadi lashed out at the Obama administration for its proposed deployment of special forces – part of an expeditionary force – to Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State.

“The Iraqi government confirms its firm and categorical rejection of any action of this kind issued by any country [that] violates our [Iraq’s] national sovereignty,” Abadi said in a statement which was also linked to his official Twitter account.

Abadi called the US plan a hostile act of aggression and a breach of Iraq’s sovereignty.


Iraq says it said no ...

Turkey Will Stop Sending Troops to Iraq After 48-Hour Warning


The troops have been training Sunni and Kurdish forces for two years, according to Turkish state media.

Turkey will stop sending troops to northern Iraq after Baghdad gave it a 48 hour ultimatum to withdraw on Saturday.

"Turkey is ready to deepen its cooperation with Iraq in coordination and consultation,” read a letter by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. “Those who are disturbed by the cooperation of Turkey and Iraq and who want to end it should not be allowed to attain their goal."

Turkey had sent troops on Thursday to train Sunni and Kurdish forces to take back Mosul from the Islamic State group, said Ankara. It has deployed troops to the Bashiqa region for the past two years, but the Iraqi defense minister said that the latest ones were sent without consulting Baghdad. He also said the forces were too large for their stated mission.


... Turkey says the Iraqis said yes. And they ain't leavin'. Obama says "... in any country that's necessary."

Posted by: jfl | Dec 7, 2015 3:22:43 AM | 86

I have no doubt these troops are here to exfiltrate the Turkish counsellors and US mercenaries who have been helping IS all along in Mosul (priests told of special robots that could be activated only knowing the codes)

Posted by: Mina | Dec 7, 2015 4:10:23 AM | 87

b

Sadly the observation you present, the premise and the suggestion in this post are woefully wide of the mark.

2000 troops isn't an occupation army, it's an oil tanker hub security force. Turkey has the additional advantage of asking for forgiveness from its NATO allies,...yeah, that'll happen.

Iraq can ask Putin for counter strike until they're blue in the nats. First of all, Iraq is a US protectorate and extreme oil competitor to Russia. Your suggestion would be like Apple asking Google for help. Ain't gonna happen.

Russians don't care about I$I$, they care about food prices. Putin's sanctions against food imports from US, then EU and now now Turkey means a long cold starving winter to a Russian population that remembers too well Afghanistan, the collapse of the USSR, and 20 or so years of mafia looting, loss of pensions and savings, and more starvation.

Putin can protect Northern Syria, and bmob the Wahhabis until he has to play rope-a-dope. The USILKSATUR is an unbeatable Wehrmacht. However you feel about fact is why war pron is so popular. Everyone has a lascivious dream of white unicorns.

Posted by: Chipnik | Dec 7, 2015 4:16:21 AM | 88

Lone Wolf@81 - Re: Ahrar Syria Brigade declare al-Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood in Aleppo “military area”

Sorry, I missed that back when you originally posted the question. I see there has been an updated article on the situation: Ahrar Surya Brigade renew its declaration to continue its shelling the neighborhood of al- Sheikh Maqsoud, and impose conditions to stop it

The YPG and local militas have been protecting the Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood in Aleppo city. They had a truce with al Nusra/FSA head-choppers until recently: don't bother us and we won't bother you. Same with the Sheikh Maksoud YPG and the SAA - they're not allied with each other, but they're not fighting, either. Sheikh Maksoud is the area in yellow at the tip of the thumb on the loyalist hand surrounding Aleppo [source: @PetoLucem]

The green line on Peto's map labeled "Last Insurgent Supply Route" is also known as al-Kastillo road. It leads north to the A'zaz - Kilis al Nusra/FSA/CIA supply route to/from Turkey. That road has been under attack and is now cut, AFIK. Kurdish units from Afrin were cooperating with the SAA and Russians in that effort. Al Nusra/FSA called and end to the truce with the YPG, but only for the Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood. Several other areas/truces remain in effect as mentioned in the articles.

The renewed attack on Sheikh Maksoud is designed to convince the Kurds to stop attacking the al-Kastillo road, but also for some supposed transgressions against the arab population of the neighborhood. It's unclear to me what power the YPG in Sheikh Maksoud has to sway the Afrin Kurds and PKK to open up the al-Kastillo road, but that's not going to happen. Apparently al Nusra also figures killing arabs and leveling their homes is the only way to save them from the YPG protecting them. Don't ask me - it's head-chopper logic.

To illustrate what a slug-fest this has been between everyone around Aleppo, here's a map from just over a year ago about the SAA's plans to cut the supply lines to Aleppo [source: AGATHOCLE DE SYRACUSE blog].

Al Nusra/FSA is just invoking their Samson option and scorched-earth retreat. They're losing in Aleppo, so they're going to try and take everyone down with them. They may succeed in leveling the Sheikh Maksoud neighborhood and killing some YPG (and Arab civilians), but their supply lines are gone. I'm guessing they only have a month or two left in Aleppo city proper before they abandon the opposition-controlled parts to the SAA.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 7, 2015 4:20:47 AM | 89

Western coalition strikes Syrian army camp, 3 dead, 13 injured
https://www.rt.com/news/324940-syrian-army-coalition-strike/

More proof Obama is supporting ISIS against Syria. Despicable.

Posted by: Seder | Dec 7, 2015 4:51:17 AM | 90

Boris Johnson said allies should join Assad and Russia against ISIS.http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/07/boris-johnson-allies-should-join-assad-and-russia-against-isis One comment about this was .. Johnson was a Russian 'sleeper' agent but that his handlers should have changed his surname as well. Hej.

Posted by: harry law | Dec 7, 2015 5:59:59 AM | 91

@36, @71

I believe the “important corrections introduced by Russia” refers to the section that mentions "Al Nusra, and other Al Qaeda related groups".

Without this clause the western powers would have used it as a tool to beat Russia with. "They are not hitting IS positions, in violation of the UN Resolution" etc. However with this clause, it justifies all of their airstrikes, and also puts pressure on the western powers that support the same groups.

It should also be helpful when they discuss which groups are terrorists in the next round of Vienna talks. If they already have UN backing on anything AQ related, then that should hopefully exclude large numbers of the 'moderate opposition'.

Posted by: Bill | Dec 7, 2015 6:06:54 AM | 92

What is the US cooking up for Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran? "Divide and conquer" on a whole new level


Now, the United States is encouraging Erdogan with a conspiratorial half-smile while trying not to cross a certain line. Once his job is done and the fires of war have been lit, then it will be possible to accuse him of all mortal sins (first and foremost the financing of international terrorism) and skillfully replace him with someone fully controlled by the West from among the military-based nationalists who are dreaming of revenge against Erdogan over recent mass imprisonments and other humiliations.

Another pipedream? Just like they'll get rid of Da'esh when they're done, so too, they'll get rid of Erdogan, the godfather of Da'esh?

Things are beginning to spin out of control. Iran and Iraq cannot tolerate Erdogan in Iraq, and Syria cannot tolerate Obama in Syria.

They're on their own ... Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia ... the longer they wait to react the more Turks and Americans will be in Syriaq, and their ability to dislodge them will shrink and fade away. It seems clear that Russia will be engaged on at least 3 fronts - Syriam Ujraine, and the Afghanistan border. Everyone knows the plan for the Middle East.

Posted by: jfl | Dec 7, 2015 7:20:00 AM | 93

@ 71 Circe, @ 91 Bill

The Libya resolution was a fault of Medvedev (then president of Russia).
Putin was very angry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/22/world/europe/22russia.html?_r=0

But the acceptance of this resolution seems a fault of Putin.
Only fighting after approval of the relevant sovereign state. That should have been a condition.
Exactly what Russia and Syria had done.
(Lavrov: 'We are nice people, we won't come if not invited')

What a chance to underline the necessity and possibility of civilized behaviour between states.
What a chance to be pro-active with regard to Iraq.
The resolution in this form should have been vetoed.

Indeed, the correction is an improvement, but hence not enough.
Coordination with the relevant state and their ground troops is essential.
Assad commenting on British air strikes: Assad said Cameron's strategy would make the situation worse, not better. "They are going to fail again," he said. "You cannot cut out part of the cancer. You have to extract it. This kind of operation is like cutting out part of the cancer. That will make it spread in the body faster."
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN0TP08N20151206

Posted by: From The Hague | Dec 7, 2015 8:10:00 AM | 94

So the Turks have invaded Iraq

Next b will be telling us that the Iraq war is in the process of "winding down", the dumb bastard

And the ZioNasty Empire has for the first time directly attacked SAA forces - so expect a post from b, the dumb bastard, telling us how the Syrian War is definitely "winding down"

lulz

Posted by: von SantaClausewitz | Dec 7, 2015 8:40:17 AM | 95

@PavewayIV@88

[...] Don't ask me - it's head-chopper logic.

Well, they learned it somewhere along the way from their sponsors, who invented the concept of "destroying the village in order to save it."

[...] I'm guessing they only have a month or two left in Aleppo city proper before they abandon the opposition-controlled parts to the SAA.

That's a good assessment, give or take a few weeks. From what I can gather following the Aleppo campaign, SAA, Militias, HA, with a little help from above (Allah and the Russians), have been effective at cleaning Aleppo's countryside and cutting off supply routes to the takfiris in the city. Their time is coming up.

Thanks for your prompt response, and the maps.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 7, 2015 8:51:08 AM | 96

Turkey’s red line in Syria under attack

Http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/turkey-syria-turkmen-border-israel-russia-eu-settlements.html#key’s red line in Syria under attack

Posted by: virgile | Dec 7, 2015 9:23:11 AM | 97

@jfl@92

A bad translation of an excellent analysis, thanks for pointing at it. I fully agree with the author that,

[...] The decision to start operations in Syria was strategically, absolutely correct. And it has only one drawback: it was not taken earlier.

Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 7, 2015 9:25:40 AM | 98

Russia - match the U.S. deployment of nukes to Turkey, deploy a dozen tactical nukes to Syria for the defence of the Syrian Government against external aggressors.

Announce you are doing this. Making the path of escalation as clear as day may be the only effective way to give the NATO warmongers pause for thought.

Remove them when the U.S. removes their nukes from Turkey.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 7, 2015 9:36:33 AM | 99

In addition - can we assume Russia has contacts within the Turkish military?

They certainly should as one of Russia's most important neighbours / historical adversaries.

One would hope that now is the time Russia would be metaphorically screaming at these guys - get rid of Erdogan and his ruling mafia clique or be prepared for this madman Erdogan to lead the country down a path that leads to several Turkish cities resembling steaming piles of ash during the next few months.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 7, 2015 9:40:47 AM | 100

next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.

 

Site Meter