Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 26, 2015

Turkey's War On Kurds Realigns Syrian Kurds With Their Government

A short update to yesterday's (corrected) post on the situation in Turkey and Syria.

Last weeks suicide attack on a meeting of young, mostly Kurdish socialists attributed to the Islamic State was probably a false flag operation initiated by Erdogan's secret service. I discussed the possibility of such an attack a month ago: The Turkish Military Rejects Erdogan's War Plans - "False Flag" Needed?. The attack on the Kurds was then used to justify an operation against the Islamic State. But that operation is only pretended. That Erdogan's claim of attacking the Islamic State is only theater and that his real aim is a war on the Kurds who fight the Islamic State can be seen best in these tweets:

Turkey arrests 593 individuals on terrorism charges, though only 32 are #ISIS members, the rest are from Kurdish parties.

(The expression "Kurdish parties" is not completely correct here. Some people from the marxist DHKP-C party, which is mostly not Kurdish, were also arrested.)

From yesterday:

#BREAKING Sources tell CNN Türk last night Turkish jets made 159 sorties against #PKK camps in N.Iraq&hit 400 targets

#BREAKING Sources tell CNN Türk last night there was no air strike against #ISIS, targets were hit by tank fire near #Kilis.

In yesterday's post I named as one of Erdogans aims as to: "Rally nationalist for a new round of elections to Erdogan's side. Shut out the Kurdish HDP from the next election to again win an outright AKP majority."

Today the leader of rightwing-nationalist MH Party and a vice leader of Erdogan's AK Party called for prohibiting the leftist HDP from taking part in the next elections likely this fall. The HDP won 12% in the last election and is the party that is also representing the PKK Kurds. Kicking out the HDP would assure that Erdogan's AKP could again achieve an outright majority of parliament seats. It could then continue with Erdogan's plan to change the constitution and to move all executive powers to the president's office which he occupies.

Two soldiers killed, 4 others injured in car bombing in Turkey’s southeast which guarantees a further tit-for-tat escalation of the revived conflict between the Kurds and the Turkish state.

Turkey has called for NATO consultative meeting under chapter 4. I doubt very much that his operations, obviously in support of the Islamic State, will get official help from NATO.

In Syria President Assad held a public speech and described the current situation in the country. Reuters headlines: Syria's Assad: Army focusing on holding most important areas

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Sunday the army had been forced to give up areas in order to hold onto more important ones in its fight with insurgents ...

Reuters, and others who now report this, are a bit late to the game. That the Syrian government had decided to keep the army mostly to holdable defensive positions was reported and explained here on June 4(!):

The parallel onslaught of U.S., Turkey and GCC supported al-Qaeda "moderate rebels" and Islamic State Jihadists necessitates that the Syrian government concentrates its capabilities and assets and moves into a defensive stand.

This is not a strategic change of course or a sign of weakness but a tactical move. To sacrifice exhausted army units in further defending outlying and thereby indefensible minor parts of the country would simply be unwise.

The Kurds in Syria and their leader Salih Muslim are under attack from the Islamic State and now also from Turkey. They have now offered to reconcile with their only reliable partner, the Syrian government. Salih Muslim said that the Kurds would join the Syrian army if that army would show a "new mentality". He spoke favorably of the father of Bashar al Assad and his relations with the Kurds and discussed various forms of federalism.


Should the Syrian government take up this offer for talks (likely!) and guarantee some kind of Kurdish autonomy within some federal Syrian structure the Syrian army would regain the manpower to again go on the offense. Supported by Iran and Russia and united with the Kurds the Syrian army would again be dominant power in the country and likely be able to retake the insurgency and islamist occupied areas.

Posted by b on July 26, 2015 at 01:36 PM | Permalink


Yes it is and I do believe it would work. Then again what do I know?

Thanks b

Posted by: jo6pac | Jul 26, 2015 2:33:27 PM | 1

One problem of AKP is that Erdogan is erratic. They can arrest 10,000 Kurds and leftists, but will it eliminate HDP? HDP got 13.12% of the vote, and once I read an estimate that of that, 11% were Kurds, the rest other minorities and leftists. I think that repressions will not dent the support of that electorate. Also, if the government will be grossly one-sided, it may alienate part of Turkish electorate too, and ca. 5% of the electorate of AKP that consists of Kurds, but here I can only guess. Furthermore, such policy would most probably alienate CHP and prevent the formation of the coalition government, which may be part of the plan.

The most safe route to electoral victory would be to outlaw HDP, something similar was done before, but this would return Turkey to civil war, and quite possibly worse than in the past. Outlawing HDP could be also unpopular, so AKP could fail getting a majority again, and by the time of third election it could have a stigma of selfish adventurers, and worse.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 26, 2015 2:39:58 PM | 2

thanks b.. very interesting developments..

isn't the usa-israel plan to have a kurdistan? wasn't that all a part of the breaking up of iraq and this regime change in syria? turkey under erdogan seems to be easily duped into playing right into this plan too..

Posted by: james | Jul 26, 2015 2:57:26 PM | 3

"Last weeks suicide attack on a meeting of young, mostly Kurdish socialists attributed to the Islamic State was probably a false flag operation"

The bomber that was identified was a Turkish Kurd-
If factual, it was not likely a 'false flag' attack, but, was indeed ISIS, which has Kurds amongst it's ranks

There never appeared to be any war plans by Erdogan- I followed that story and it went no where- Erdogan talked of securing borders and not much else, their appeared to be nothing to the 'war plan' talk

"Erdogan's claim of attacking the Islamic State is only theater"

Ok, you do know that shots were fired from Syria killing a Turkish soldier maybe 2? Which resulted in the retaliatory fire from Turkey, right?

You are also aware that the PKK claimed the assassination hits on two police officers in Turkey, as they slept, right?

Then there was another hit on two traffic cops at what appeared to be a staged accident- head shots, again.

Then finally the attack you reference on the two soldiers..

So, you are missing many occurences between between here and there

You are also aware that Turkey went to the UN regarding the strikes on ISIS, right? While never once entering Syrian airspace?

As for the offer of reconciliation from this Kurdish leader....
While it might be a good idea, in theory, in reality I wouldn't get too excited as of yet

There is much disagreement between the Kurds themselves- And NATO backed Kurds have been killing Kurds who are less then compliant..

Considering also the fact that the Kurds have been ethnically cleansing Syrian Arabs and Christians- Same as in Iraq

Facts that don't get covered even by so called alternatives such as MOA. And so many others

Then of course there is the fact that Israel and the NATO allied Kurds are the best of buddies- And Israel long ago infiltrated into and trained the Kurdish fighters-- Israel wants nothing to do with Assad

Kissing and making up- might be a bit difficult
Not impossible, just difficult
I'll refrain from jumping for joy at this time- but will hope for the best- For all ordinary humans concerned

Posted by: Penny | Jul 26, 2015 3:20:13 PM | 4

james @ 3

"isn't the usa-israel plan to have a kurdistan? wasn't that all a part of the breaking up of iraq and this regime change in syria? turkey under erdogan seems to be easily duped into playing right into this plan too.. "

It would seem Erdogan has caught on
Israel would love a Kurdistan- it would be a home away from home for Israelis

Posted by: Penny | Jul 26, 2015 3:23:41 PM | 5

Thanks for this update.

The Syrian Kurds, all Kurds have been shafted by the U.S. they are not going to get a state.
Iraq will not give up in Iraq there is the issue of oil. Iran would be against it. The best they can hope for is autonomy; Syria to survive will surely adopt.

Erdogan is in a mess. Turkey do not want civil war but he wants to hold power. What a psychotic

Posted by: James lake | Jul 26, 2015 3:23:59 PM | 6

All of Sultan Erdogan's mad policies are based on the assumption that victory can be achieved within the shortest possible time. Of course, as with many things in life, nothing is ever certain so things often tend to go down South - especially things that contain too many combustible elements(Nusra, Da'esh, Islamic front, FSA, Chechnya mujaheddin).

Sultan Erdogan gambled on killing two birds with one stone by supporting the most radical Sunni elements in the region to first topple Syria's government then also destroy the Kurds. But as the war drags and alliances are lost/formed, things didn't/haven't gone according to plan and now it's payback time.

One has to admit though, that Sultan Erdogan played the Kurds very well...First he managed to bribe the corruptible ones among them into some fake "peace process" (similar to the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian piss process). He managed, quite successfully to co-opt the corrupt Kurdish mafia in Northern Iraq, Massoud Barzani clan and at home, the HDP. In Iraq, he used the corrupt KRG mafia to subvert/undermine the central Iraqi government and also to suppress other anti-Sultan Erdogan Kurds (PUK, PKK etc etc). This plan worked nicely until a rift developed among Erdogan's supported minions - Da'esh vs FSA vs Islamic front vs etc etc. So Da'esh went ape sh*t and decided to teach Sultan Erdo a lesson.

I don't believe the attach in Suruc was a false flag attack. It was Da'esh sending a powerful message to Sultan Erdogan not to get ahead of himself too much. Erdogan is now stuck in a confusing web of madness he's woven over the years. To divert the people's attention and take some heat off him, he's opted for the one thing that sorta unites all Turks - anti-Kurdish bigotry. So he bombs Kurds for crimes committed by hi favorite terrorist group, Da'esh.

It gets even better, he manages to get the US to support him. But what do you know? The US will support anything as long as there's some bombing involved.

There's darker days approaching to Turkey and many of us here saw it coming long time ago.

Posted by: Zico | Jul 26, 2015 4:27:41 PM | 7

EU Mogherini speaks to FM Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on Syria, ISIL and peace proces with Kurds

Posted by: Oui | Jul 26, 2015 4:47:31 PM | 8

President Rouhani visits Iranian Kurdistan for the first time July 26, 2015

Posted by: Oui | Jul 26, 2015 4:56:10 PM | 9

"The Syrian Kurds, all Kurds have been shafted by the U.S. they are not going to get a state"

That meme is well worn- Why do the Kurds deserve a state?
When so many others are stateless
Syrians made stateless
Iraqis made stateless
Libyans made stateless
Palestinians losing their state as we speak
so many others- no place to call their own, but somehow the kurds deserve the state above all others

If not for the media promoting that meme would anyone be regurgitating it thoughtlessly?

What's interesting is both the self declared right and left push this meme- this mind virus crosses all indoctrination levels
Which suggests widespread implantation
Why did some organization, entity, agenda work so hard to spread that mind virus?

Oh and one last thing?
The Kurds are largely nomadic.. Do nomads ever really have a state?
Or do they just have areas they 'hang out in'

Posted by: Penny | Jul 26, 2015 6:06:04 PM | 10

Hmmm, so, if the Kurds throw in with Assad then he will be under some degree of pressure to use his airforce to deter Turkish F-16s from dropping bombs on his new allies.

Otherwise from the Kurdish PoV what's the point of allying yourself with someone who can't help you out?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jul 26, 2015 6:55:45 PM | 11

"Supported by Iran and Russia and united with the Kurds the Syrian army would again be dominant power in the country and likely be able to retake the insurgency and islamist occupied areas"

What would force them to stop at the Syrian boundaries?

Posted by: Bardi | Jul 26, 2015 7:01:39 PM | 12

Putin is cutting arms deals with Assad's biggest enemy the KSA and his navy is doing naval maneuvers with Israel so his support of Assad may not be very deep.

Assad is offering amnesty to draft dodgers, no report on any takers, because his forces are being depleted. The Kurds have had a de facto agreement with Assad since the beginning of the conflict and they have their hands full with their own actions in Syrian Kurdistan so I don't see how they can make any real difference in Assad's diminishing part of Syria.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Jul 26, 2015 7:44:02 PM | 13

Dream on wayout There is a powerful person to person alliance between Mid to senior level Russian pols & functionaries and their Syrian government counterparts. That extends into the Russian media and while it is convenient for western media to call everything Russia does as something 'done by Putin' that is far from the case.
Even if the Russian prez did want to sell Assad short he wouldn't want the problems with his own mob that would cause.
So a few bits and pieces are sold to another side gotta make some hard cash - same for the Israeli 'exercises' that will be a dance as both sides try to deceive the other while assessing their opponents/allies capabilities.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 26, 2015 8:45:31 PM | 14

@10 Russia/Israel naval exercises? Got a link for that? Russia/China and Russia/Egypt naval drills happened.

Posted by: dh | Jul 26, 2015 9:53:30 PM | 15

I guess that Putin, and to a degree Iran, were pressuring Assad to forge a compromise with Kurds and perhaps other minority militias. Putin is a master in sending confusing signals and not averse to cutting side deals, but I really do not recall him abandoning an ally.

In any case, while there were cases of tensions between YPG and Syrian military, they seem to cooperate OK in Aleppo and Hasaka. It is not clear to me how Kurds are getting weapons. I would guess that most of it is delivered through KRG area, perhaps ultimately from Iran and Russia, but NATO supplies are presumably included. It was also reported that there were tensions between KRG and YPG, but it seems mostly in the past. What is very mysterious is how Afrin enclave is supplied. However it is accomplished, PKK is not starved for weapons and experienced fighters.

The West, and in particular, West Europe, is very concerned about ISIL, and there is really nobody except leftist Kurds that can serve as an opposing force that they can cooperate with. ISIL-related extremism is a domestic problem in Europe.

"[On July 24th] Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice President of the European Commission Federica Mogherini called Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on Sunday and encouraged the Turkish government to pursue the continuation of the settlement process with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)." Bundeskanzlerin chimed in, and I really do not see who in Europe would advocate otherwise. Americans are more ambiguous, but I would guess it is a matter of politeness. In that situation it would be hard for AKP government to outlaw HDP, they actually have votes to accomplish that because MHP requests to do so, but it seems that it would cause problems with all countries that matter except GCC, and unleash a broad insurgency to boot. If Erdogan were reckless to that degree, he would send divisions of troops into Syria years ago.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 26, 2015 10:01:04 PM | 16

The Russian trade deal with the KSA is huge and long term including 13 Nuke plants defense deals and energy cooperation. Syria offers nothing but a Black Hole for Russian aide with little reward even if Assad survives.

Russia and Israel are close allies with economic, cultural and military/intelligence cooperation ongoing. Israel is supplying Russia with hundreds of drones some built cooperatively in Russia, Russia supplies most of Israel's oil needs.

There are over 1.000,000 Russian speakers in Israel and many Russian retirees who vote in Russian elections while in Israel.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Jul 26, 2015 10:12:37 PM | 17

US government sanctions Hezbollah officials for assisting Syrian government fight against ISIS and al-Qaeda.

Posted by: jayc | Jul 26, 2015 10:16:10 PM | 18

challenge wow all you want and ask for a link too.. isn't forthcoming, is it?

Posted by: james | Jul 26, 2015 10:22:34 PM | 19

@14 Israel and Russia certainly have strong connections. Still wondering about the naval exercises.

Posted by: dh | Jul 26, 2015 10:22:47 PM | 20

Iran needs to get serious and send its army to Syria.

Posted by: Kevin | Jul 26, 2015 11:03:02 PM | 21

Posted by b on July 26, 2015 at 01:36 PM

It sure is.
(It's not often we see Wayoutwest in panic mode)

It's easy to forget that the Obama fake "International Community's" fake civil war in Syria has never been more than a to & fro standoff and requires only a united front to tip the balance in Assad's favour.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 26, 2015 11:38:36 PM | 22

In response to Wayoutwest who has come here to post unfounded speculation

The saudi investment is potentially is 10 billion over 4/5 years this is 2 billion a year. In real terms not a lot and in real term nothing concrete had been signed. There is a lot of talk no substance.

Russia is friendly with every nation in the Middle East has bilateral relations with all of them. I don't understand commentators who do not see this and understand this. Russia has no desire to make enemies and has built positive relations with countries even ones heavily influenced by the U.S. anti Russian stance.
They do have clear policies on Palestine, Syria and Iran and Iraq

They are not doing any millitary exercises with israel, this is made up nonsense.
They are doing exercises with China in the med and that is it.

On another blog Fortruss they report regularly about regular arms shipments going to Syria these are reported in Russian media all above board and legal.

Posted by: James lake | Jul 27, 2015 1:45:38 AM | 23

So when Putin gave access to America's predictable war crimes in Afghanistan, that's was fine too? ....Dispicable.

Putin recently signed a disgusting nuclear energy with Saudi Arabia, and before the deal was signed, the malevolent Saudis were bragging about how they eventually will want to make their own nuclear weapons!!!! Which didn't give the freak Putin pause what-so-ever about this horrendous nuclear energy deal.
So not did only Putin raise the stakes in the future nuclear conflict, he also increased the economic strength of this despicable Saudi government which entrenches the power of the evil king and prinecs, replaced clean energy with a nuclear energy deal during all the warnings about global warming, and all this compromise with the future of humanity so fucking Putin can strengthen the Russians State. FUCK PUTIN SO HARD.

Posted by: tom | Jul 27, 2015 2:07:58 AM | 24

Shrillary is in full electioneering mode. Yesterday, she warned that Russia & China will "pay for supporting Assad's slaughter in Syria." I'm quite looking forward to her becoming POTUS. With so many of the West's 'leaders' acting like big shrill girls, it'll make a pleasant change for one of them to actually BE (notionally) female.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 27, 2015 2:58:41 AM | 25
Turkish PM: No plans to send ground troops into Syria
Ahmet Davutoglu said air strikes on IS positions close to the Syria/Turkey border and on Kurdish PKK separatists in Iraq could "change the game".

Turkey's actions are in response to violent attacks last week in Turkey itself, including the death of 32 activists in a bombing in Suruc.

Nato is to hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the situation.

Posted by: okie farmer | Jul 27, 2015 3:31:57 AM | 26

The post by (21) Tom should be deleted the language used does not help debate.

Posted by: James lake | Jul 27, 2015 3:32:23 AM | 27
“Instead of targeting Isis terrorist occupied positions, Turkish forces attack our defenders’ positions,” the statement said.

“We urge [the] Turkish leadership to halt this aggression and to follow international guidelines. We are telling the Turkish army to stop shooting at our fighters and their positions.”

Posted by: okie farmer | Jul 27, 2015 4:00:07 AM | 28

This could be the turning event that let the good guys win.

Posted by: Alexander Grimsmo | Jul 27, 2015 7:02:30 AM | 29

From guardian link in 25, swipe and paste:

Turkey accused of shelling Kurdish-held village in Syria
Turkey denies claim by YPG that tanks fired on border village of Zur Maghar overnight, reportedly wounding four fighters
Protesters prepare to throw a molotov cocktail from a rooftop during clashes with Turkish police in Istanbul on Sunday. Photograph: Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Turkish tanks shelled a Kurdish-held village in northern Syria overnight, wounding at least four fighters, according to Kurdish forces and a monitoring group.

This is what happens when you try to use an electric fan in the region. Rather than sh..t, you get Molotov cocktails and worse flying in your face. By the way, the village is "East of Jarabulus which is held by ISIL". Jarabulus is on the bank of Euphrates and border with Syria, and according to "The National" of South Aftica, the attacked village is on the other bank of Euphrates. It is very hard to make a mistake when the positions are separated by a huge river. The "fighter" are apparently "moderate Arabs" working with YPG.

NYT describes plans to make a "zone", buffer zone, safe zone, liberated zone? using a combination of bombing, artillery fire and "moderate tighters" that would separate ISIL from Turkish border, help other moderates in attacking the government in Aleppo, provide safe heaven for refugees and so on, a plan which is quite contradictory and can lead to a number of nasty outcomes. Leaks described Americans and Turks as the "planners", and NATO session will discuss the situation soon. The plan could actually be approved because it is wrong in so many ways that it is hard to describe them (but a series of power point slides could explain one by one).

Digression: my late father was in "artillery patrol" on Eastern Front, the guys who figure out where the artillery should shoot. On of the most difficult tricks was "attack with a curtain of fire", artillery makes a line of explosions directed at the enemy line, infantry runs in that direction, and the line of fire moves forward, infantry keeps running, until enemy positions are overrun or our brave infantry is cut to pieces by the friendly fire. Once his patrol encountered a nicely entrenched batter facing river B, a tributary of big river A, because they mistook B for A and thus prepared to rain fire on their friends. How such mistakes can be made in the age of GPS? Back in old times, one had to neglect to check the compass, now one has to neglect checking GPS.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 27, 2015 8:17:11 AM | 30

One word about my digression: the "zone plan" seems totally impossible, because it would require very tight coordination between three unrelated forces, while offering tons of occasion to kill "the wrong people". Attack on Zur Maghar looks like test shooting, and true or false, it instantly showed the difficulty.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 27, 2015 8:22:26 AM | 31

Nuclear energy to produce electricity is the future.burning fossil fuels to do the same is destroying this planet,ironically those countries that sell fossil fuels are demanding nuclear energy as compensation,also they have the revenue to afford the costs involved.then the competition for uranium will begin and more wars will be fought for this resource.

no fucking NO

wrong way .....turn back

population control over the next century is the only way to go by halving the demand

no more human beings to be born for 10 years starting 2020

ZERO population growth for 10 years is the answer.enforced by law and forced abortion for those that break the law


Woman must take human destiny in its hands and STOP BREEDING

Posted by: mcohen | Jul 27, 2015 8:32:02 AM | 32


None of the information I reported on Russia/Israel relations is controversial or contested and some of the military story comes from RT. They also reported on the five year military agreement between R/I in 2010 which will probably soon be renewed.

Posted by: Wayoutwest | Jul 27, 2015 10:03:01 AM | 33

Posted by: mcohen | Jul 27, 2015 8:32:02 AM | 29

You're not a deep thinker are you?
If the West hadn't spent the past 2 Centuries plundering and impoverishing the entire planet, more people would have achieved sufficient economic security to have entertainment options and interests other than shagging and would limit the size of their families in order better enjoy their wonderfully rewarding lives.
You should more careful ... pulling the "blame the victim" rabbit out of your ass says more about your seedy Final Solution obsession than it does about improving the human condition.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 27, 2015 10:12:38 AM | 34

@30 Thanks for the clarification. So somewhere in RT we will find a reference to Russia/Israel naval exercises.

Posted by: dh | Jul 27, 2015 10:19:19 AM | 35

21;Israel and Saudi Arabia are now the bestest friends.Any venom for the Zionists?Putin is the smallest threat to world stability,as the USA and the Zionists.

Posted by: dahoit | Jul 27, 2015 10:36:23 AM | 36

@ 29: Never happen, because, as the old saying goes, " The comfort of the rich, depends on an abundance of the poor." Humanity will always need others to look down upon. Sad.

Posted by: ben | Jul 27, 2015 11:04:48 AM | 37

@24 james lake... may as well just ignore tom.. everyone else is!

@32 - that is about as much as you are going to get from the western propagandist..

Posted by: james | Jul 27, 2015 11:30:24 AM | 38

@24 james lake.. may as well ignore tom.. everyone else is..

@32 dh.. that is as much as you are going to get from the western propagandist..

Posted by: james | Jul 27, 2015 11:31:24 AM | 39

Moon of Alabama is a great source for keeping tabs on Turkey. As soon as I heard the media reports of Turkey "bombing ISIS" I suspected it was a cover to hit the Kurds but I had no confirmation until b posted his first article. It's very affirming to hear the truth in a world dominated by lies.

Most of the debate here is useful as well, save for a few shills who drag down the conversation while everyone else works to keep it at an intelligent level--kudos to the posters who try to keep things based on facts as the comments can be hugely useful.

Posted by: WorldBLee | Jul 27, 2015 12:39:04 PM | 40

kurds are getting weapons from the SAA already in Al Hasaka and other areas only thing holding them back from fully aligning with the SAA is the FSA in kobone

Posted by: shane | Jul 27, 2015 1:25:02 PM | 41

This is great news if true - and alliance between Kurdish Workers Party, the (Baathist) govt. of Syria, The Syrian equivalent of the Kurdish socialists and the religious minorities the Druze, Christians & Shite ... The U.S. normally might scuttle such a deal via bribery, but the Americans can hardly reach out to a Workers Party anywhere. Workers party's are anathema to the present western ruling regime .They will double down on their alliance with the most degenerate, and most reactionary forces in the region. And will lose ultimately

Posted by: psakiwacky | Jul 27, 2015 2:18:44 PM | 42

An alliance between Syria and the Kurds would be ideal. ISIS would be forced to fight on two fronts and would end up having to run into Turkey itself if the alliance succeeds on the ground and its successes spread through word of mouth or online. That would be Erdogan's worst nightmare.

Posted by: Jen | Jul 27, 2015 7:03:43 PM | 43

Hurriet: Turkey may need to revise its economic targets downward once a government is formed, Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on July 27, on the back of persistent uncertainties.

“We hadn’t been expecting uncertainty in the second half of the year like the first half,” Şimşek said in an interview broadcast live by NTV Television.

Actually, "uncertainty" is now pretty much certainty. Tourist season started disappointingly, and will finish much worse, lira is tanking, foreign investors start to shun Turkey, even the Gulfies prefer Russia (sorry, dear Muslim brothers) and so on. And PKK knows how to inflict economic damage: the main gas pipeline from Iran just exploded and is closed pending repairs. Moving the economy to war footing is actually a good trick, if the downturn is inevitable, but only if the population can be convinced that this is not a wag the dog war. In Turkey it will be difficult to convinced Kurds, Alevis and the leftists, who did not vote for AKP and MHD anyway, but this is already 40% of the electorate, and some groups that voted for AKP and MHP may be cynical about AKP actions, while diving economy may do the rest. So it will be necessary to outlaw HDP, escalate the conflict exponentially ...

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 28, 2015 12:52:49 AM | 44

I think Turkey bombing the PKK is a warning that the Kurds shouldn't think that Turkey bombing ISIS means that they favour the Kurds over ISIS.

Posted by: Willy2 | Jul 29, 2015 1:39:23 AM | 45

I think somewhere, an algorithm that's used to run scenarios has a glitch, and nobody knows what to do. We are dealing with a headless Turkey here.

Posted by: Ross | Aug 3, 2015 6:48:54 AM | 46

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