Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 28, 2015

The Turkish Military Rejects Erdogan's War Plans - "False Flag" Needed?

The war on Syria would not be possible without the huge involvement of Turkey on the side of the islamists fighting the Syrian government. Despite some success by Kurdish guerrillas along the border with Turkey against the Islamic State there are still open routes that allow the islamists to cross and which are their most important supply lines.

The Kurdish success against the Islamic State and other Turkey supported islamist groups, created with U.S. air support, is seen as a strategic threat to Turkey. The Kurds already have a semi-autonomous state in north Iraq. They now could possibly create one in Syria along the Syrian Turkish border. They may later want to integrate Kurdish areas in Turkey.

"I am addressing the whole world: We will never allow a state to be formed in northern Syria, south of our border," Erdoğan said at a Ramadan event organized by Turkish Red Crescent in Istanbul late June 26.

"We will keep up with our struggle whatever the cost is. They are trying to complete an operation to change the demographics of the region. We will not condone," he said.

The economic situation in Turkey is getting worse. Erdogan and his AKP party lost in the recent elections but want to avoid a coalition government. Erdogan isn't finished. He will call for new elections but will first create a situation that will diminish the vote for the mostly pro-Kurdish party HDP and thereby recoup their parliamentary votes for his AKP.

All three issues: the Turkish proxy attack on Syria through islamists forces, countering the threat of Kurdish consolidation in Syria and diminishing support for the pro-Kurdish party in Turkey could possibly be furthered in Erdogan's favor if he could create a wider conflict with the Kurds.

Last weeks Islamic State raid on Kobane, allegedly from Turkey, killed over 200 people, mostly civilians. This was a much bigger terrorist attack than the ones in Tunisia, Kuwait and France which were hyped in "western" media. But with U.S. support on the side of the Kurds the islamist Turkish proxy forces have trouble to defeat the Kurds.

Erdogan's solution to his problems is to send the Turkish military. Its task would be to keep the Kurds in Syria from progressing further and to keep the logistic lines for the Islamic State to Turkey open. The army fighting against Kurds in Syria could also help to diminish non-Kurdish support for the pro-Kurdish HDP in Turkey.

But the Turkish army does not want to fight Erdogan's war:

Turkey’s government wants more active military action to support the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the regime, Kurdish and jihadist forces in Syrian territory, but the military is reluctant to do so, playing for time as the country heads for a new coalition government, official sources told the Hürriyet Daily News.
...
One source explained the “need” as to “prevent more clashes between the ISIL and the Kurdish forces led by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), prevent the PYD from taking full control over the Turkish-Syrian border and create a safe zone against a new wave of refugees on Syrian territory, no longer in Turkey.”

Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel has delayed the government directive with justifications of international law and politics and the uncertainty of reactions from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, as well as from its supporters Russia and Iran, together with the United States.

The government has been conducting dialogue since then to convince the army on its plans.

The army is blocking Erdogan's move to send at least one division into Syria. It wants its orders in writing and from a new, yet to be formed, government. The Turkish attack will therefore - should happen at all - not be launched before fall.

With this move the army leadership, surely in contact with the U.S., takes one of three of Erdogan's reasons for sending the military off the table:

Twitter whistleblower Fuat Avni wrote in the early hours of Saturday that President Erdoğan is concerned about what the anonymous account alleged to be secret coalition efforts between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and that a Syrian war appears to be the only way to create chaos that will lead to increased support for the AK Party.

As the army does not want to follow Erdogan's plan he may to have look for other ways to create an emergency situation. Could some "terrorist attacks" on Turkish land from Syria be used to press the army into immediate action? The Turkish intelligence service M.I.T. is in Erdogan's hand. It does not shy away from dirty "false flag" business. Could it be used to create the crisis Erdogan needs? Could the neoliberalcons in Washington DC help him?

Posted by b on June 28, 2015 at 12:12 PM | Permalink

Comments

Erdogan and his AKP political future hinges on the overthrow of Assad at any cost.. His demented dream of becoming the regional Sultan will eventually destroy Turkey. Besides, he's invested too much in the Syria project to watch it all disappear.. As things stand, Assad isn't going anywhere so Sultan Erdo better toss himself over a bridge..

Funny thing is, Western diplomats/politicians know the links between the AKP and Daesh but they've ignored it - for now, that is until it's convenient to beat Turkey with a stick.

Posted by: Zico | Jun 28, 2015 2:52:30 PM | 1

The main reason the US empire is supporting the Turkish Kurds is to create the usual divide and conquer that works against Turkey.
So, the US is helping the ISIL terrorists overthrow Assad. A goal they share with the Turkish government using terrorist jihadi proxies. But the US is also creating dividie and conquer by supporting the Turkish Kurds against the Turkish government.

Isn't geopolitics just dandy.

The US empire has the upper hand clearly, with its goal of all regional groups weakening and preferably for the empire, destroying each other.

Posted by: tom | Jun 28, 2015 3:37:25 PM | 2

Well, there's at least one Turk who has more than half a brain and doesn't need a proctologist to find his head:

Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel has delayed the government directive with justifications of international law and politics and the uncertainty of reactions from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, as well as from its supporters Russia and Iran, together with the United States.

Turkish boots on Syrian territory is serious red line stuff for Russia. Erdogan should give General Özel a medal for Wisdom. But he's such a dickhead, he'll probably sack Özel for being too sane.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 28, 2015 5:17:02 PM | 3

A false flag by Turkey has already been tried Seymour Hersh wrote "Was Turkey behind Syria sarin attack" "Recognizing Obama’s political sensitivity over his “red line” pledge, the Turkish government and Syrian rebels saw chemical weapons as the way to force the President’s hand, Hersh reported, writing:

“In spring 2013 US intelligence learned that the Turkish government – through elements of the MIT, its national intelligence agency, and the Gendarmerie, a militarised law-enforcement organisation – was working directly with al-Nusra and its allies to develop a chemical warfare capability.https://consortiumnews.com/2015/06/27/was-turkey-behind-syria-sarin-attack/

Posted by: harry law | Jun 28, 2015 6:08:17 PM | 4

cyprus is linked to the greek tragically....and the russian magically by the orthodox church...also the port and the gas resouces in the med

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2971278/Putin-s-Cyprus-deal-gives-Russia-foothold-EU-British-MPs-blast-island-s-decision-let-Moscow-s-navy-use-ports.html

if greece slides towards russia and china away from west then....bail and out.

then deal with greek cyprus is done and the turks in cyprus will be blocked

the kurds are russian pressure in south,cyprus in east,georgia in north

http://www.wnd.com/2015/03/russia-preparing-final-assault-to-take-back-georgia/

the classic pincer ...queen,castle, rook.

thus expect sunni proxy isis to move against kurds

false flag will be kurdish attack on turkish forc

or cyprus/turkish misunderstanding

cia in albania to setup .....kentucky fried chicken

Posted by: mcohen | Jun 28, 2015 7:05:10 PM | 5

"We will keep up with our struggle whatever the cost is. They are trying to complete an operation to change the demographics of the region. We will not condone,"

Jesus. Erdogan sounds like he's channelling the most craven and racist Zionists.

"We'll keep up our struggle..." one has to wonder wether he or the Turkish people know exactly what that is anymore.

Posted by: guest77 | Jun 28, 2015 8:52:10 PM | 6

@6

' "We will keep up with our struggle whatever the cost is. They are trying to complete an operation to change the demographics of the region. ..." '

Shouldn't that read ...

' "We will keep up with our struggle whatever the cost is. They are trying to complete an operation to recognize the demographics of the region. ..." '

Maybe the answer is for the Syrians to recognize and support the Kurds as allies and for the Iraqis and Iranians to recognize and support the Kurds as allies? And together to battle their common enemy?

And the Kurds need to remember that they are nothing but instruments in the geopolitical calculus of the USSA, and have nothing at all to look forward to in the hands of the Evil Empire but repeated betrayal.

Posted by: jfl | Jun 28, 2015 9:21:46 PM | 7

I could imagine that the economy in Turkey goes "down the drain" before Erdogan can plant a "false flag" operation. Then the government doesn't have time to foment more "unrest" in Syria.

Posted by: Willy2 | Jun 29, 2015 1:47:21 AM | 8

@8 willy.. that would be really great if it applied to the ussa as well, lol..

Posted by: james | Jun 29, 2015 2:30:56 AM | 9

@8 willy.. that would be great if it was to be applied to the ussa as well..

Posted by: james | Jun 29, 2015 2:31:36 AM | 10

OT
Expect an Iran deal between July 1-9

The June 30 deadline for the talks on the nuclear issue between Iran and the world powers is coming up tomorrow and the excitement is running high, which is only natural for such crucial negotiations of momentous consequence to international security and world politics. Diplomats have a way of rushing things at the last minute.

But the deadline is going to be extended until July 9, as sticking points still remain to be resolved.

Why July 9? Simple, insofar as the US Congress will need double the 30-day period it has sought to review any deal that is reached beyond July 9. Which, of course, means that the lobbyists of Israel and Saudi Arabia (who work in tandem) will get extra time of 30 more days to do mischief. The Barack Obama administration can’t be unaware of the risk involved — and, possibly, Tehran too.

Another hopeful factor is that the media and the “expert opinion” is actually doing guesswork but no details of the talks as such are getting leaked. Obviously, we are way past the time for grandstanding.

Again, the remarks by the European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini in Vienna on Sunday are noticeably optimistic. “Everybody is very much aware of the fact that we have conditions now to close the deal… There’s a good deal, and we have to use these hours these days to do it. Postponement is not an option,” she insisted.

She added however that everyone was prepared to be flexible if a few more days were needed to reach a deal curtailing Iran’s nuclear program. “We don’t have new points open on the agenda, we’re not re-negotiating things,” she said. Mogherini enjoys the trust and confidence of the Iranians who dealt with her previously as Italy’s foreign minister.

Some of the most accurate assessments of the Iran talks have so far come from the Chines pronouncements. Thus, the remarks by China’s vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong in Vienna on Sunday become a useful marker. Li said talks are only “a step away” from the possible comprehensive deal.

Interestingly, Li spoke of the possibility of wrapping up the deal “within one week”. He seems looking at the period between July 1-9.

The 24-hour dash by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Zarif to Tehran with the promise to be back at the talks in Vienna on Tuesday strongly suggests that he is taking the final approval for some formula that might have emerged during his three rounds of talks between Saturday and Sunday with the US Secretary of State John Kerry and the US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz.

The smart thing to do will be to remain alert on any “breaking news” by the Russian nor the Chinese media on the two countries’ foreign ministers rescheduling their program and heading for Vienna. The presence of Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi becomes a “must” for the historic occasion of the signing of the Iran nuclear deal.

By M K Bhadrakumar – June 29, 2015

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 29, 2015 2:53:24 AM | 11

10

Turkey took over Greece's role as the largest agriculture products supplier to the EU, then thanks to Nuland-KerryKohn-Poroshenko's illegal coup, Ukraine was attempting to supplant Turkey, but thanks to Russia, now Albania may seize that role, ... or maybe it's Armenia; whatever, the banks are closed in Greece, and those who didn't get their cash out are starving in the streets, because they failed to realize WW3 is being fought with banks instead of bullets, and the outcome is still the same: 10,000,000s on their way to the open-air gulags of the 21st Century.

Whoo-whoo, all aboard!

Posted by: Chipnik | Jun 29, 2015 5:06:16 AM | 12

11

Another one bites the dust:

Governor Says Puerto Rico’s Debts Are ‘Not Payable’
By MICHAEL CORKERY and MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
Gov. Alejandro García Padilla, saying he needs to pull the island out of a “death spiral,” has concluded that the commonwealth cannot pay its roughly $72 billion in debts.

Taa-dah!! The Domino Effect of IMF/WB/FED/EU Global Credit-Debt Conflagration.
Astute observers will start cashing out their savings accounts before the banks bail in their accounts, to make up for receivables shortfalls. Then Mil.Gov will start bailing in tax refunds and credits to make up their receivables shortfalls. Then all the Mil.Gov contractors (that 'China™' hacked every piece of business data about, and there are 10,000,000s of), will start bailing in their APs to make up for 120+ aged receivables,

"Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera..." Yul Brinner

Hey, who needs cash when you can debit off 28% to your credit card company!?

Posted by: Chipnik | Jun 29, 2015 5:38:08 AM | 13

13

What?!? What?!?

Luxembourg -3,443% of GDP Irremediable External Debt
Iceland -999% of GDP
UK -406% of GDP
Sao Tome
and Principe -349%
Hong Kong -334%
Netherlands -316%
Belgium -266%
Guinea-Bissau-259%
Monaco -240%
Switzerland -229%
...
Zimbabwe -103%

There are 32 nations, many in EU, more bankrupt than Zimbabwe!!

On to Moskva!!

Posted by: Chipnik | Jun 29, 2015 6:16:25 AM | 14

One can wonder why Erdogan blew his stack right now, other than having the well documented proclivity in that direction.

I seriously doubt that high brass of Turkish military would like to fight. They went through a cycle of purges under Erdogan watch, allegedly accomplished by Gulenists in the judiciary and police, and rehabilitations that followed the purge of Gulenists, but their gratitude for the latter should be tepid at best. Now that Erdogan is a lame duck, they can obstruct him more openly. Lastly, I would think that they are Kemalist and not Sunni fanatics.

Fighting insurgencies puts high demand on manpower, and Turkey has a lot of it. But they know better than anyone that a victory over Kurds in Rojava would be pyrrhic, as it would re-start civil war in eastern Turkey. Would Turkey proceed cautiously, it would give time for Russia to send arms and for Iran to send troops, and with NATO material support missing, this could turn to be a major debacle. And with unwilling generals and lacking allied support, I do not thing Turkey can go for a blitz krieg that would go all the way to Damascus. Most realistic would be a much more modest plan, occupy the rectangle from Euphrates to Afrin and south to Aleppo. I would stop the Kurds from occupying it, and it would give Turkey complete control over the supplies to taqfiris. But this can also lead to a disaster. Overt supplies to ISIL are extremely unpopular in the West, and excluding ISIL can lead to serious bombing attacks in Turkey.

I just do not see a positive scenario for Turkey

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jun 29, 2015 11:01:48 AM | 15

I could also imagine that Erdogan will stage a false flag event to divert attention from the dismal financial situation in Turkey.

Posted by: Willy2 | Jun 29, 2015 12:56:34 PM | 16

Now Erdogan has more incentives to turn to Russia & China. But that won't go down too well with the bosses of NATO.

Posted by: Willy2 | Jun 29, 2015 1:32:36 PM | 17

It is apparent that Edrogan hasn't received the memo from US about the Kurds in the region being part of the US's defense against Isis.
Some fluster cluck in terms of US foreign policy in the region?

Posted by: ALAN | Jun 29, 2015 3:20:33 PM | 18

Would Russia and China really accept a corrupt, revanchist autocrat as any ally?

Posted by: Almand | Jun 29, 2015 5:58:11 PM | 19

@19 Perhaps if there are any left over that the US hasn't claimed.

Posted by: guest77 | Jun 29, 2015 7:21:24 PM | 20

Come now, guest77. How can you utter such rank propaganda. America's allies are all staunch champions of democracy and human liberty. Especially in the Middle East. Maybe that's why they hate Iran so much... Theocracy without Monarchy. Big no-no.

Posted by: Almand | Jun 29, 2015 7:38:26 PM | 21

And here was the smoke screen the US administration just could not block, the century's old relationship; as Putin and Merkel circumnavigate the energy route evading the troubles yet slapping the US Et Al. AKA Gazprom’s silver bullet and Putin announcing the 'New' Nord Stream Gas Pipeline to Germany one 'second' before midnight (Emphasis added). The also pushes Turkey to start playing the game, and Putin still has his South Pipline agreement it also lets Russia bypass countries like Ukraine, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Belarus and Poland, bye bye NATO, even though it was touted as a security risk. Ha Ha, metaphorically one large effing pipe bomb! that turned into a bomb-shell! Ukraine alone will lose natural gas transit revenues up to $720 million per year and cant steal (bleed off).

Posted by: Kevin | Jun 29, 2015 7:51:49 PM | 22

The center really is not holding... anywhere.

Posted by: chuckvw | Jun 30, 2015 3:16:22 AM | 23

Kevin, your quote comes from a very good article by Mike Whitney:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/06/29/putin-gobsmacks-uncle-sam-again/

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 30, 2015 5:38:34 AM | 24

How about the link between the kurds and ISIS themselves, because it's there.
Given that Kurds are sunni muslim same as ISIS?
Tom @ 2:
excellent comment

Given that there are Kurds fighting with ISIS?
Considering that ISIS and the Kurds are both running under the NATO umbrella should we consider the symbiosis between them- the flow
the give and take- that's been part of the theatre since Sinjar and the Yazidis?

btw: we've already seen a 'false flag'
the most recent attack on Kobane- to frame the Turks


When the destabilization of Syria began doesn't anyone recall that it was CIA agents sitting at the border of Syria and Turkey handing out weapons to the 'rebels' That should give us some idea who has been allowing "ISIS" fighters into Syria via Turkey

Posted by: Penny | Jun 30, 2015 6:51:41 AM | 25

harry law @ 4

that robert parry piece is nonsense- based on Sy Hersh-

That attack, using Sarin, was aided by Israel.

Read that and thought hmmmm.... Robert Parry moves the narrative along
That would be the NATO narrative

Posted by: Penny | Jun 30, 2015 6:53:54 AM | 26

http://english.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?eid=218657&cid=22&fromval=1&frid=22&seccatid=55&s1=1
Turkish Opposition Leader Warns Erdogan against Syria Intervention: War Not Game
Turkey's main opposition party leader warned that any military intervention in Syria would spell disaster for the country.
~~~
Turkish newspapers have carried reports Erdogan is considering military intervention in Syria, in a bid to stop gains secured by Kurdish fighters against Takfiri group ISIL (so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Levant).

Posted by: okie farmer | Jun 30, 2015 11:25:09 AM | 27

Sultan Erdogan's just posturing..The guy's been desperate for a crisis ever since his glorious AKP party didn't get the outright majority in the last elections..He needs a crisis so he can declare a state of emergency etc etc..

No sane Turkish general will be foolish enough to enter Syria - officially, that it..

Posted by: Zico | Jun 30, 2015 12:04:48 PM | 28

I am surprised how easily Erdogan went through parliament to force the military's hand today. I expected more of a fight. This is not good.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/11706383/Turkey-planning-to-invade-Syria.html

Posted by: CW | Jun 30, 2015 9:04:55 PM | 29

@19

Are we reading the same article?

Turkey 'planning to invade Syria'


It remains unclear whether the threat to intervene will be followed up by action. The military is said to be unhappy to involve ground troops in the civil war. They are said to be offering to join the international bombing campaign against Isil instead. “It may be the government wants to do this but there are numerous institutional reservations,” said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Edam think tank in Istanbul.

In particular, there is a question mark over whether the intervention would be legal under Turkish law without a vote in parliament, or in international law without a UN Security Council resolution.

There would also be intense opposition to the operation being approved by the prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, who is only still in place because of difficulties forming a coalition after his party, the Islamist AKP failed to win a majority in this month’s election.

The intervention would also be opposed by the rival Republican People’s Party (CHP), which blames Mr Erdogan for making the Syrian war worse by supporting Islamist rebels rather than using his influence to negotiate peace.

“There is not sufficient reason to send Turkish troops to Syria,” said Faruk Logoglu, who until the election was head of the CHP’s foreign affairs committee. “Once you do that there is no way out.”

Posted by: jfl | Jun 30, 2015 9:36:01 PM | 30

above should have been @29

Posted by: jfl | Jun 30, 2015 9:36:34 PM | 31

@30 'The military is said to be unhappy to involve ground troops in the civil war.'

It's called invasion of a sovereign country. Unless language has totally lost it's meaning.

Posted by: dh | Jun 30, 2015 10:01:56 PM | 32

I was reading the 'It remains unclear whether the threat to intervene will be followed up by action.' and what follows. It doesn't seem to me that this is a 'done deal' at all. Having lost at the polls Erdogan has turned over the table and is starting a fight inside Turkey ... maybe he'll lose before he gets to the border?

Posted by: jfl | Jun 30, 2015 10:15:41 PM | 33

in re 26 -- Parry and Hersh present evidence; where's yours?

Posted by: rufus magister | Jun 30, 2015 10:53:33 PM | 34

Hurriet, which seems to represent CHP point of view, had a field day with at least three editorials mocking the idea to intervene in Syria, and so far, this newspaper was quite measured in criticism of Erdogan because there is a potential of AKP - CHP coalition. In the meantime, two Rojava cities on the border with Turkey were quite viciously attacked by smallish squads of ISIL -- not enough to take them, but enough to blow up checkpoints with kamikaze attacks, get some sniper positions and shoot at everything in sight. HDP blamed Erdogan for Kobane incident, I do not know what they will tell about Tel Abiad (spelling?). Erdogan was sending journalists to prison for 10 years for less, but I think members of Parliament have immunity. The accusation is quite plausible given Turkey's action in recent past.

I would think that this affair can hurt AKP in coming elections (it does not look right now that there will be a coalition, so there will be new elections in two-three months), but I am not sure how it plays to Erdogan's base and to MHP voters. To AKP voters, this is normal behavior of their beloved leader, I have no idea what are the views of extreme nationalists voting for MHP . From what I imagine, if the military does not like it, they will not like it either.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 1, 2015 12:54:47 AM | 35

@34

what evidence do Parry and Hersh present?

Posted by: Penny | Jul 1, 2015 7:28:08 AM | 36

There is a faint hint that there may be anti-AKP coalition in Turkey. For that, CHP and HDP would have to vote for MHP candidate as Parliament's speaker, which could save face for MHP for making a coalition with CHP with HDP outside support.

I do not know what is MHP thinking because I do not know any English language web site that would represent them, like Hurriyet Daily News for CHP, or Today's Zaman for Guelinists. CHP line is pretty clear so one does not need their publications to figure it out, but MHP sounds very irrational when you read about them. However, typically a party with a major following is not THAT single minded. The bottom line is that several more years of Erdogan's dominations over Turkish politics can give a lot of damage to Turkey, and above all, to the parties in the opposition, as AKP can consolidate repressions and patronage as tools of maintaining one party state. The increasing adventurism of Erdogan can add to their motivation.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 1, 2015 10:23:02 AM | 37

I wrote about this just yesterday. I hope I am not breaking any rules posting it. Please remove it if I am. I mainly think that this is a counter plan for the US's plan to use the Kurds to fight ISIS.

http://theantimedia.org/turkey-afraid-of-kurdish-independence-more-than-isis/

Posted by: ndahi | Jul 1, 2015 8:37:39 PM | 38

The Turkish army hates Erdogan and it is reciprocal.
Erdogan dreads that the army becomes strong again and threaten him with another coup.
It is well known the the army is on Gulen side and would never obey the AKP orders

Posted by: Virgile | Jul 1, 2015 9:52:15 PM | 39

- I doubt the IMF is able to rescue Turkey with a new fresh loan.

Posted by: Willy2 | Jul 1, 2015 10:24:20 PM | 40

ndahi @ 37 -- Seems like a fair analysis, given the Islamist nature of the AKP. It's a tough row for them to hoe, encourage the Syrian Kurds against Damascus, but prevent the Turkish Kurds from making headway and prevent them all from joining with the de facto independent Kurdish state in Northern Iraq.

Virgile at 38 -- You're right about the bad blood between AKP and the military (see the Ergenekon trials). They might have to formally obey, especially if the AKP could plausibly claim a security justification. But they might well try to exploit the situation to their advantage.

Posted by: rufus magister | Jul 1, 2015 11:28:35 PM | 41

The situation of military officers versus AKP is complex. For starters, Kemalist ideology is anti-Islamist, and I guess most officers were trained and screened to be Kemalists, but the younger generation may be different. Second, Ergenokon caused a lot of bad blood, Gulenists were blamed and victims (?) were rehabilitated. However, Gulenists were part of AKP and the fact that now they are subjected to Ergenokon type of witch hunts is not particularly reassuring: AKP changed spots a bit, but it remains the witch hunt party.

It also seems that the military intelligence is firmly in the hands of Erdogan and it is the tool used to aid jihadists of all kinds (ISIL included). That can prevent a coup attempt, but I imagine that non-intelligence officers would tend to hate the military intelligence in those circumstances.

The biggest security issue for Turkey is that (1) YPG and KPP seem to overlap, a blow against YPG re-starts bloody strife on Turkish soil (2) ISIL has a lot of recruitment structures in Turkey, a blow against ISIL would start a bloody strife on Turkish soil (3) hard to see the "moderate al-Qaeda" being the target (4) if the government forces would be attacked, probably Russia, Iran and China could all retaliate economically and there would be a military component, this is WWIII stuff. What would Turkish troops do? Serve coffee and baklavas to all?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 2, 2015 6:10:36 AM | 42

US Forbids Allies From Arming Syrian Kurds to Fight ISIS


While the Pentagon is providing airstrikes in support of the Kurdish YPG virtually daily in its fights against ISIS, reports are that the Obama Administration is blocking other nations’ plans to provide heavy weapons to the group, in hopes of bolstering their fight.

This has led many in the US-led alliance to see the YPG is their most reliable allies inside Syria, and the US itself seems eager to back them with airstrikes at every opportunity. Directly arming them, however, is apparently a step too far, and the reason is likely Turkey.


And they might defeat the US' ISIS boys. So the US is rooting for Turkey to annihilate the Kurds.

I think that Syria, Iraq, and Iran need to reconcile themselves to the existence of the Kurds and to arm and support them. One way or the other things do seem to be getting rearranged in the Middle East, and together with the Kurds Syria, Iraq, and Iran could be on top of the wave rather than always behind it.

Posted by: jfl | Jul 3, 2015 7:24:48 AM | 43

43

Once Assad falls and UN 'peacekeepers' take over the Syrian military bases and disable the radars, then Tehran will quickly fall, as US-IL launch fire-and-forget cruise missiles and tactical radar destroying missiles from just over the horizon and appearing in the direction from Turkey or even Ukraine, that Tehran is unable to defend against, and which US-IL can plausibly deny.

Once Tehran retaliates in Gulf of Hormuz, then comes an ashen-faced Obama, a shrieking lily-white Netanyahu, quick UNSC vote, and the heavy bombers with nuke bunker busters Shekhinah. All the pieces and ordnance are all in place, ready to be locked and loaded, from far offshore US Navy in the Gulf, and Diego Garcia B-29s and B-2s in the air within 4 hours.

Then crude oil will be comfortably back above $145, and we can sign the TPP, and EU bond write downs on Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, the Final Solution to Total Global Hegemony by IMF/WB.

Posted by: chipnikh | Jul 3, 2015 7:50:13 PM | 44

@44

sounds like you're looking forward to it

Posted by: jfl | Jul 3, 2015 10:35:37 PM | 45

July 08, 2015, Wednesday/ 18:39:32/ TODAY'S ZAMAN / ISTANBUL

A recent survey conducted by Gezici Research Company has revealed that the vast majority of Turkish voters are against a possible cross-border operation into Syria to be conducted by the Turkish military to combat security threats.
According to the survey, 91.4 percent of the respondents said they don't want the Turkish military to be involved in any operation in Syria, while just 8.6 percent said a military intervention should take place. The survey also revealed that 70 percent of the respondents believe the interim Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government will start a war with Syria.

ZAMAN is vehemently against Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but I did not see them making stuff up. Seems that Erdogan made a huge miscalculation. In the meantime, one of the parties of the opposition, xenophobic MHP, is positively going bonkers. Young supporters staged a protest against China "outlawing Ramadan" and attack a Chinese restaurant (Turkish owner, Uighur cook) and a group of Korean tourists, and the party leader defended them, explaining that one cannot tell Koreans from the Chinese from their looks (not to mention Uighurs, on whose behalf the protesters made a riot).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jul 8, 2015 10:59:53 PM | 46

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