Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 27, 2014

Syria: Erdogan's False Flag Invasion Plans Reveled

Updated below.

An March 23 the AlQaeda affiliated groups Jabhat al Nusra and Ahrar al-Shams consiting of foreign men crossed the border from Turkey and attacked the western Syrian province of Latakia. The seized the Kasab border crossing and the Armenian town Kessab. People there fled as the Jihadist removed the crosses from the Armenian churches and replaced them with their black flag. The Jihadist groups were given artillery support and anti-air cover from Turkey. A Syrian jet on a bombing run against the Jihadists was shot down by the Turkish air-force.

The Jihadist managed to capture several hill sides before being stopped by reinforcing Syrian forces. After the plane was shot down Syrian anti-air radars painted any Turkish flight coming near its border ready to shot them down. Heavy artillery is used against the intruders and they are said to have high casualties. Their wounded get transported to the Turkish border and find help in Turkish hospitals. The Jihadist campaign is clearly in trouble and it may only take a few days until they will have to give up and retreat.

The Turkish prime minister Erdogan and his foreign minister Davutoglu have further plans. They allege that the Tomb of Süleyman Shah, a small place in Syria 25 kilometer from the Turkish border but under Turkish sovereignty, is threatened by Jihadist group Islamic State (ISIS). They say that Turkish troops are ready to go to protect it. This clearly is a threat of invasion under some attack on radio Gleiwitz reasoning. Today leaked tape recordings of two tapes of a conference (in Turkish, UPDATE: English transcript of first part) between Davutoglu, the chief of the Turkish intelligence MIT Hakan Fidan and others, seem to confirm that this is indeed the plot. According to a preliminary translations by Firat Gunay (for which I can not vouch):

  • Fidan offers Davutoglu to send men into Syria to fire missiles on Turkey.
  • After Davutoglu rejects that, Fidan offers to bomb the tomb of Süleyman Shah.
  • Talk about the needs of the Jihadists which is more about ammunition than guns.
  • Fidan states that they have delivered 2,000 truckloads of weapons to the insurgents.
  • Davutoglu says Kerry had asked if the Turks would invade Syria and had pressed for it to do so.
  • Davutoglu also says they have plans for a no-fly zone over Syria and have delivered such plans to NATO.
  • Davutoglu assures Fidan that Erdogan has agreed to all the plans.
  • Fidan says things do not go well for the insurgents and that Turkey has send a general to help them.

Shortly after the calls were leaked on Youtube Turkey blocked local Internet access to Youtube. It is now also available on Vimeo and elsewhere. The tape release, only the latest in a larger series, came after Turkish police raided a holding company related to the religious Gülen movement, an earlier ally of Erdogan which has become his fiercest enemy. A TV station related to Gülen was also taken down.

There are local elections on March 30 and Erdogan's AK Party may lose the mayor seats in Istanbul and/or Ankara. Erdogan seems to have not only his voice but also his mind. He is using a strategy of demonetization against everything - Twitter, Gülen, Israel, Syria, whatever - to play to his large base. This base though may no longer be big enough for electoral victories.

The Obama administration is also planting stories of new "worries" about Jihadists attacks on "western" interests from north or east Syria. Such an "attack" could easily be orchestrated and then used to "justify" "western" intervention and a renewed perspective of a no-fly zone over Syria.

The northern attack on Syria comes at a time where a long announced attack in the south fails to materialize. There have been sightings of new Chines anti-tank weapons in the south but there is no sign of a coordinated campaign. Indeed there are doubts that the announced Southern Front exists at all. The talk about it may have been a diversion for the attack in the north.

Turkey and the United States should be careful with their dreams of invading Syria. Two can play such games and there are Russian troops ready on the eastern Ukrainian border. A move in one place could result in a counter move elsewhere.

UPDATE: A link to the complete taped conference with English text. A link to the complete English text. (Again: I yet can not vouch for their correctness.)

Posted by b on March 27, 2014 at 11:28 AM | Permalink

Comments
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why is turkey such a stooge for the usa?

Posted by: james | Mar 27, 2014 11:51:11 AM | 1

I look forward to seeing whether Harf or Psaki will be asked about this at a State Dept. Presser:

"•Davutoglu says Kerry had asked if the Turks would invade Syria and had pressed for it to do so."

It will be even more interesting if it gets traction in the MSM beyond a question from Matt Lee.

Posted by: Rusty Pipes | Mar 27, 2014 11:56:13 AM | 2

Having cooperated with the Jihadis, the U.S. is laying the groundwork for another attempt at intervention in Syria based on the fact that Jihadis control large swaths of territory in the northeast. The argument, which is based mostly on anecdotal evidence which can be easily disputed, was regurgitated yesterday in a NYT story. It is a familiar one: Jihadis traveling to Syria from the West are being trained for future attacks on Europe and the U.S. Hence, a ready made casus belli and rationale for intervention.

I don't think it can be sold in the U.S. And it's doubtful Erdogan can pull it off by himself. But with Obama "leading Erdogan from behind," with Saudi assistance, maybe.

Posted by: Mike Maloney | Mar 27, 2014 11:59:37 AM | 3

Thing is, Erdogan is a useful dictator so he gets a free pass... I mean, who'll replace him after he's gone?? The risk of a civil war in Turkey if Erdogan steals the elections is more real now than ever..

He wants to start a war in Syria to silence his opponents at home...And to think that EU leaders are quiet while Erdogan shuts down twitter, utube etc etc is nothing surprising...

Interesting times...

Posted by: Zico | Mar 27, 2014 12:01:39 PM | 4

Thanks for the update, B. I was wondering about the report a couple of days ago that Turkish tanks were heading for (across?) the Syrian border; now it's confirmed. The whole business seems like utter folly. The US definitely believe they still hold the strategic initiative in the Middle East. That can't possibly be true after the face-down last September. It ought to be fairly easy and not costly for the Russians to give Assad a hand in suppressing the incursion if he needs it, which seems doubtful. I would have expected some simultaneous moves on the Jordan front. Anything happening there?

Posted by: Knut | Mar 27, 2014 12:01:53 PM | 5

According to Reuters Erdogan has confirmed the authenticity of the leak while Davutoglu says some parts are manipulated.

@Knut I would have expected some simultaneous moves on the Jordan front. Anything happening there?

As I wrote above the southern attack does not seem to happen. Some rather small scale stuff but nothing really serious yet.

Posted by: b | Mar 27, 2014 12:06:40 PM | 6

Posted by: b | Mar 27, 2014 12:06:40 PM | 6

Does anyone know the date of the recorded conversation? It might have been from years back.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 12:11:14 PM | 7

I seem to recall that in the 1973 War, when the Israeli Army was threating Damascus, the Soviets (aka Russians) put an airborne division on alert. That’s when serious peace negations commenced.

One wonders just what commitment Russia today has to Syria?

Posted by: TomV | Mar 27, 2014 12:18:42 PM | 8

Actually, b. the Zaman article (that's Gülen information) sounds strange.

Reuters could not verify the authenticity of the recording, potentially the most damaging purported leak so far as it appeared to have originated from the bugging of a highly confidential and sensitive conversation.

The English translation you link to in the blog post also sounds strange - more like a montage from different conversations.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 12:31:16 PM | 9

Does anyone know the date of the recorded conversation? It might have been from years back.

No, I think it would be from the last few weeks. It mentions the tomb of Süleyman Shah, which is the tomb ISIS threatened to attack 2 weeks ago. The tomb, belonging to the grandfather of the first Ottoman Emperor is located around 15 miles inside Syria but the site is considered Turkish territory.

All in all this is a very worrying leak. Seems like Erdogan is committed to engineering a way to attack Syria and is just willing to wait under after the local elections on Sunday to do it. Worse still is that the leak claims John Kerry is also pressuring the Turks to go ahead with it.

Posted by: Colm O' Toole | Mar 27, 2014 12:44:17 PM | 10

@somebody - here is the story directly from Reuters

"They even leaked a national security meeting. This is villainous, this is dishonesty...Who are you serving by doing audio surveillance of such an important meeting?" Erdogan declared before supporters at a rally ahead of March 30 local polls that will be a key test of his support amid a corruption scandal.
That, I think, confirms the leak.

I am still waiting for a decent transcript esp. of the second part.

Posted by: b | Mar 27, 2014 12:48:45 PM | 11

Posted by: b | Mar 27, 2014 12:48:45 PM | 11

Bavarian radio announced Tymoshenko's run for presidency with "leaked phone call where she threatens to shoot Putin into the head regarded by many observers to be published by herself to bolster her image"

It is quite possible Erdogan published this to deflect from the corruption leaks and give a "security reason" to ban social media.

The Reuters text you quote sounds like it.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 12:55:16 PM | 12

Further to what b reports…

According to the Greek language Defencenet.gr (pro Putin, pro Syria), quoting a Syrian officer, Syrian forces have retaken the strategically important height of Al-Kasab, 65 kilometres north of Lattakia, which commands the strategic passes of Castel mamaegen and Ma Afu.

Critical to the recapture was the transfer of SA-6 anti aircraft missiles to cover Syrian Mi1-17 Hip helicopters gunships, which proceeded to pound Turkish and islamist positions. These helicopters couldn't be used since the downing of the Syrian MiG-23 by the Turkish F-16 several days ago.

According to the same Syrian army source, some 200 islamists (out of 5000) and two Turkihsh officers were killed. He promised further action agains the remainder.

This information cannot be verified, since Defencenet.gr did not post links. Sometimes, but not always, they overstate things.

Posted by: Thrasyboulos | Mar 27, 2014 1:05:55 PM | 13

Obviously, the intent of the western poligarchy is to save their failing terror campaign against Syria by using Turkey to provoke Syria into making a move that the west will then twist into something that will be used to engineer open aggression as in Libya. Claiming Erdogan is just trying to improve election chances for his party is cover for this. The involvement of Kerry pushing for aggression by Turkey against Syria is proof of that. The western establishment doesn't really have a stake in supporting Erdogan's party, since the main opposition is their stooges, also. Much like with Egypt and the Morsi-Sisi spat.

Expect false flags from these cretins.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 1:14:04 PM | 14

I am a bit busy now so I couldn't concentrate on it, but I listened to the Turkish version of clip. It is rather interesting because it seems to me that General Guler is complaining at a point about the military preparedness of Turkey. He doesn't talk very explicitly but I got the impression that -presumably because of the purges in the armed forces- the turkish armed forces was in a state of semi paralysis.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 1:32:05 PM | 15

My understanding of what Fidan (the head of the MIT) says is not that Fidan "offers" ways of initiating the war. But rather he says that it is absolutely no problem for him to make a false flag attack on either Suleyman Shah's tomb or to send a few people to syria and get them to fire a few rockets into some empty landscape on the Turkish side and use either one of them as the "excuse" for initiating the war. What Fidan says is that doing such false flag operations was no problem at all. But what he says is that there is no "political will" to go the whole nine yards and actually enter a full blown war, because sending troops and tanks means a clear and unmistakable start of full blown war with Syria. So what he says is that the practicality of the false flag creation is not what's stopping them, but the lack of political will/determination to get into a full fledged war is the problem.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 1:43:35 PM | 16

By the way b,
If you are curious I can translate the whole of the two clips and post it here.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 1:49:41 PM | 17

Descriptive maps showing Syrian strategy during the last 3 years and speculation about the future. Found this site on Syrian Perspective site..http://trpintel.myfotojournal.com/
I wish that some wise heads would start talking peace and stop the villains from filling their pockets at the expense of the Syrian people.

Posted by: Midan | Mar 27, 2014 1:51:57 PM | 18

The Revenge of the Tartars: The Empire Strikes back


Shooting down the Syrian jet would have proven to be a viable motive for Syrian "retaliation" in the form of the false flag attack that was proposed.

But better out than in, I say. Such actions are now less likely to wash.

Posted by: Pat Bateman | Mar 27, 2014 1:58:02 PM | 19

What I am very curious about is that who is behind planting a bug to record such a high level confidential conversation. Gulen movement is completely in the pocket of USA, and I don't think that USA would like such leaks to happen. So I am not sure if Gulen movement is behind the leak. But then again if not the Gulen movement the, who?

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 2:05:51 PM | 20

Al Akhbar tells a story about how Halab's villains fill their pockets. http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/bustan-al-qasr-crossing-aleppo-daily-humiliation-and-nonsensical-rules

Posted by: Midan | Mar 27, 2014 2:07:47 PM | 21

@20 - pirouz. good question. one wonders if israel or saudi arabia have a particular agenda which isn't immediately obvious.. the motive for russia would be obvious.

Posted by: james | Mar 27, 2014 2:10:54 PM | 22

my guess would be the Russians found a way to intercept the conversation or bug the room. The Soviets/Russian were amazingly good at penetrating every single western intelligence org. I doubt very much that the Russian intelligence lost a step after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Posted by: skuppers | Mar 27, 2014 2:14:15 PM | 23

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 2:05:51 PM | 20

"who?"

Syria or Russia. Syria has been very good at breaking the intelligence of the terrorists and their western handlers. The Russians have essentially broken the whole of the western intelligence establishments. So both have the capability and the motive.

And it is lucky for the world that they do.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 2:14:16 PM | 24

skuppers

Russians? Not likely, rather any turkish opposition to erdogan.

Posted by: Anonymous | Mar 27, 2014 2:19:53 PM | 25

Anonymous

ya, 'cause oppositions always happen to have the kind of clearance, access, and resources to sit in and snoop on the governments to which they are opposed. It's a good thing that Obama cracked down on the Occupy movement or who knows WHAT kind of state secrets they would have revealed.

Posted by: skuppers | Mar 27, 2014 2:23:50 PM | 26

Since I don't speak Turkish, I am not sure what the second of the leaked phone calls mentioned by b is all about, but it could refer to this story.

PM Erdoğan plotted sex tape to topple opposition leader, audio leak reveals

A leaked voice recording purportedly of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan organizing the dissemination of video footage of former main opposition Republic People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal's adultery has provoked widespread criticism, including from Baykal, who made a statement on Wednesday calling on “Erdoğan and the state to provide an explanation” concerning the leaked audio. [...]

The leak was uploaded onto YouTube under an account named “DLMHACK,” ostensibly belonging to a leftist group as the logo has a hammer and a sickle in place of the letter D of its name. The YouTube user claimed that they seized the recording from the email account of Erdoğan's adviser Mustafa Varank, hinting that the recording was carried out by the prime minister's own associate in the first place.

In the recording, which seems to be a collage of different speeches, the voice attributed to Erdoğan instructs his men to capture Baykal in flagrante delicto and spread the footage through the media and Internet.

“Unfortunately, there are very indecent and immoral things. There has to be an intervention here. The CHP has gone completely off the rails,” Erdoğan is allegedly heard telling the people in the room.

“We have such things in our hands, a document to be published. If I give it to you, how would you do it? … Are you passing them to websites?” says the voice, and after a pause, possibly a point at which parts of the original recording were edited out, he goes on: “All right, let's do it like this, then. Let me first save it to a hard disk. But the recording is very bad. Can't he [Baykal] say they are fake and this and that?” [...]

Looks like Erdogan is going all in. If these tapes are indeed all genuine, he is burning some important bridges in the process, retreat from his position will be almost impossible. The number of enemies he has to watch out for and include in his calculations is increasing every day, with every new leak. And its not groups like the Turkish breastfeeding association, but forces capable of arranging for his funeral to be held.

He has fired thousands of police officers, judges and other government officials, had protesters dying and is shutting down social media, waging war against the Kurds and the Syrian people, battling Gulen and his followers - the deadly arrow could come from any direction. His bodyguards and secret service must be working overtime.

The continued surfacing of damaging leaks is a massive problem for him. He can't trust no one and has to watch every word he says, even in private. Not easy organizing a political strategy under such circumstances, nor an election campaign for that matter.

Its not just Erdogan who has that problem, as the highly embarrassing examples in the US/EU Ukraine coup have shown, almost everybody in government or diplomatic circles should now expect their emails and phone calls to be on record and potentially being made public.

So in times like these, he needs some friends with influence. And who better to have in your camp than the country which 3 years ago killed nine Turkish nationals trying to deliver aid to their brothers in Gaza.

Considering Turkey and USsrael's joined operation against Syria for the past three years, this surely is merely a formality:

Report: Turkey and Israel to reopen embassies

By JPOST.COM STAFF, HERB KEINON
03/27/2014 13:07

Alleged move to normalize relations comes days before critical elections in Turkey; Jerusalem denies report.

The Israeli and Turkish embassies in both nations will reopen, according to a report in the Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman on Thursday.

The report followed a meeting between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's personal representative on energy and security issues, David Meidan, and Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MİT) chief, Hakan Fidan, in Ankara earlier this week, during which the move to normalize relations was allegedly discussed. [...]

One of the major issues Erdogan is struggling with in the upcoming election is the economy. He and the AKP still have substantial support amongst the conservative population, the elections on Sunday will give a pretty good indication for where the mood is at and loyalties lie.

But should the economic trends keep pointing down and his supporter base increasingly notice the negative effects on their bank balances the political instability Erdogan's bone headed policies are causing, then he is bound to lose crucial votes. Keeping the economic ship from keeling over until after the August presidential elections is paramount for his fate at the polls.

And its not looking too good. The Turkish lira has fallen by 30% in the past three years (although in recent months has slightly recovered from its low point), which means their imports get more expensive and export products cheaper. You'd think this effect would lead to a reduction in their current account deficit, but it isn't, quite the opposite.

[...] Turkey’s current-account deficit more than doubled to $8.3 billion in December from a month earlier, taking last year’s tally to $65 billion, equivalent to about 7.9 percent of GDP, based on government estimates of the size of the economy. The ratio was 6.1 percent in 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Its third-quarter reading of 7.2 percent compares with a 9 percent deficit in Ukraine, a 6.4 percent gap in South Africa and 3.6 percent in Brazil, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China has a surplus of 2 percent while Russia’s is 1.8 percent. [...]

Inflation at 8%, unemployment on the rise again from 7.8% two years ago to 9.1% expected by mid 2014, pretty cloudy in Erdoland.

Posted by: Juan Moment | Mar 27, 2014 2:30:26 PM | 27

@27

Indeed. It's like trying to figure out who shot Mr Burns?


Posted by: Pat Bateman | Mar 27, 2014 2:37:02 PM | 28

This site claims this is the full transcript of the Syria attack call.

http://www.goodmorningturkey.com/audio-leak-reveals-turkish-intelligence-chief-fm-planning-attack-soil-start-war/ Audio Leak Reveals Turkish Intelligence Chief and FM Planning to Attack Own Soil to Start War

Not read through it all yet.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 2:40:51 PM | 29

Oil exporter?

"If we just focus on the imported crude oil supply for US refineries over the last four weeks, we (gross) exported 64,000 bpd and had (gross) imports of 7,337,000 bpd. So net imports of crude oil were:

Gross Imports – Gross Exports = Net Imports
7,337,000 – 64,000 = 7,273,000 bpd

Let’s assume that we boost gross exports by 1,000,000 bpd, and to offset for the decline in crude oil supply to US refineries we then boost gross imports by 1,000,000 bpd. Net imports of crude oil would then be:

8,337,000 – 1,064,000 = 7,273,000 bpd"

-WT

Posted by: Dave Ranning | Mar 27, 2014 2:56:08 PM | 30

Now I finished scanning the transcript a couple of quick notes. Kerry isn't mentioned, neither is the American government, as far as I could tell. They talk about having Turks infiltrated into Syria to fire rocket back at Turkey to use as a pretext. They also mention creating a pretext using the Shrine in Syria. They discussed occupying a region of Syria, near the shrine, in a more major incursion, using the pretexts described. whether to inform their UN and Syrian ambassidors before or after such the plan is put into effect. Also rundown of the Turkish military, past ops in Iraq, reliability of ISIS and the other groups as allies, etc.

It doesn't sound as if they are set on any operations, but are looking at possibilities in order to occupy part of Syria. This also does not seem to be a stunt planned to help Erdogan's party in the elections, or his falling popularity, but isntead appears to be an attempt to prolong the terrorism in Syria, perhaps turn it around back to the Turkey's favor.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 3:02:04 PM | 31

This article is on the sex scandal, which is something different.

http://www.goodmorningturkey.com/pm-erdogan-plotted-sex-tape-topple-opposition-leader-audio-leak-reveals/ PM Erdoğan Plotted Sex Tape to Topple Opposition Leader, Audio Leak Reveals

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 3:06:07 PM | 32

@31 Could be Turkey finds itself with a bunch of jihadis on it's hands. Time to get rid of them?

Posted by: dh | Mar 27, 2014 3:08:09 PM | 33

I'd imagine the level of assistance Syria gets from Russia, particularly satellite intel, has increased dramatically given the Turks role in the Ukrainian coup. Remember, Russia and Turkey have been adversaries for many centuries, and what recently was a minor thaw in relations has iced over. The indicator is Syria's seemingly new found ability to resume command of its borders. Realtime IR satellite intel showing terrorist forces movements would provide the data required for effective use of Syria's artillery and airforces as has recently been reported. Once Syria finally reclaims control of the majority of its borderlands, the terrorists remaining in Syria will be hunted and eliminated. Thus the talk of very desperate measures to breech the border through false-flag attacks.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 27, 2014 3:19:03 PM | 34

Another interesting point is that it seems obvious to me, that everyone is trying to escape from the responsibility of such a decision.
So Genral Guler says that the foreign ministry should officially tell the UN and also the Syrian consulate that ISIS is working in coordination with the Syrian regime, and say that any attack on Suleyman Shah's tomb will be considered as an act of war against Turkish sovereign territory by ISIL (which would also mean by the Syrian regime as ISIL is working as an ally to the regime).
Davutoglu and Sinirlioglu on the other hand say that they have already given numerous such written warnings to the Syrians.
Davutoglu keeps saying that he does not understand "what all this stuff has to do with the office of foreign ministry, what are we [the foreign ministry] supposed to do?" He says that the only part whose responsibility falls on for. ministry's shoulders is to do its job on the diplomatic aspect of the process.
Aparently the chief of staff in Turkey has been trying to get the foreign ministry involved and Davutoglu wants to deflect that back on to the shoulder of the Armed forces
At this point Hakan Fidan interjects and says that such an act of war would entail MANY retaliatory bombings inside Turkey as there are no control on the borders [and so ISIL can easily infiltrate inside Turkey].
At this point Genral Guler interjects again and tried to shift the burden on Hakan Fidan's shoulders and says that "Weaponry and ammunition should be given to Mr. Fidan and he should send those weaponry and ammunition to the opposition forces in Syria. This should be done with the coordination with the interior and defense ministry"
At this point Mr. Sinirlioglu interjects and tries to shift the burden of decision making back on General Guler's shoulders. Sinirlioglu says: "Just as we did in Northern Irak when we sent our tanks and troops in there with no command from the government but by just a simple decision from the Army generals, the same thing can (should?) be done in Syria [meaning that the top Generals should take the responsibility and act on their own decision]"
At this point General Guler has to concede: "Yes I agree with you but at the moment there are a variety of 'response' that Syria can give"
And lo and BEHOLD Ahmetoglu says at this point: "Mr General, we are very much aware of their [Syrians] capacities that is why we say 'let's not enter Syria!'"
And then Genral Guler says: "is 'MCI' [Mechanical and Chemical Industries is the Turkish company which produces military equipment and ammunition] not under the direct control and command of the prime minister? Right at this very moment Qatar is willing to pay cash money for ammunition and weaponry, so why doesn't prime minister give the orders to MCI? MCI is under his direct control, let prime minister give the order and produce the equipment and give it to Qatar!"
And Davutoglu replies: "yeah...well... this is the point where we can't seem to work in unity and coordination"
So Guler replies: "Then [if coordination is the issue] let the Prime minister call both the chief of staff and the minister for a joint meeting and act in coordination"
So Davutoglu replies: "Together with Mr. Sinirlioglu we went and almost BEGGED the primeminister to make a meeting together because the situation is going from bad to worse..."
Then they argue about what is and was necessary, Davutoglu says that Turkey should have acted more assertively and courageously in 2012 at the time when Syria was at its weakest point and was exactly like Libya and that was when Turkey should have intervened. He keeps emphasizing that what is needed is the "people", Genreal Guler says it is not people which are necessary but rather "weaponry" and much more importantly "ammunition". At this point Fidan interjects and says that they [Turkey] have already sent close to 2000 large trucks [Transports Internationaux Routiers International Road Transport type of trucks] of equipmwnt to the rebels"
Guler replies: "What's necessary is ammunition more than equipment, we also proposed to send some generals there, and we did send in a general..."
Then they suggest that the defence ministry must make an emergency declaration to the Turkish people, at which point Davutoglu says: "Hakan [Fidan], if we send in tanks over to Syria, what sort of complications would that entail?"
And Fidan replies: "Without coordination, and considering the exisiting balance of powers in Syria, it is not very practical"
And General Guler replies: "That is why we say that MIT must be in full charge of coordination!"

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:21:06 PM | 35

Posted by: dh | Mar 27, 2014 3:08:09 PM | 33

"@31 Could be Turkey finds itself with a bunch of jihadis on it's hands. Time to get rid of them?"

They did talk about weapon supplies for the terrorists to keep them in the field at least 6 months, and said that since the terrorists were not supplied with enough weapons earlier, many had returned to Turkey.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 3:22:12 PM | 36

Slight correction to my previous message:

"...He keeps emphasizing that what is needed is the "people", Genreal Guler says it is not people which are necessary but rather "weaponry" and much more importantly "ammunition"..."

"people" should have been "man power"

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:26:39 PM | 37

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:21:06 PM | 35

They sounded leery of actually doing it, in my opinion. That's why I said I thought it sounded like they had not actually committed to any specific plan, but were running through some options. It sounded like they wanted to do something to support the terror operations in Syria, but were not thrilled with the options available.

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 3:27:14 PM | 38

Does Turkey have the stomach for a full scale conflagration?
The way the SAA dispatched the criminals show how they are now a better fighting force and will make enchiladas of Turkey's untested and perhaps noncommittal armed forces.
The shooting down of the Mig that was a cheap pay back of the Turkish jet lost awhile back.
Erdogan is losing points, he really is. His people must have near zero respect for him anymore. He is probably a punchline, that's all.

Will this cause the Armenian diaspora to show support for Syria and Assad?
Things like this always have unknown outcomes.
I wonder what Mr. Pragma thinks about this?
Oh that's right, he's banned....That sucks....

Posted by: Fernando | Mar 27, 2014 3:29:29 PM | 39

Speaking of Turkey, how many Westerners know that Turkey has been occupying about a third of the inland of Cyprus since 1974? Turkey is a regional power, like Russia is, according to Obama? So why is Turkish occupation of Cyprus tolerated to this day by the West, to the extent of even letting Turkey stay in NATO despite its brazen violation of international law, while Russia's assisting Crimeans in determining their destiny was so hysterically condemned?

Also, given how prominent the Israeli occupation of Palestine is as an international issue, it is odd that hardly anyone seems even to know about the Turkish occupation of Cyprus. Greeks living in the Turkish occupied area were ethnically clensed.

Posted by: Demian | Mar 27, 2014 3:31:22 PM | 40

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:21:06 PM | 35

It does sound like a montage. And Erdogan has no part in it.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 3:33:07 PM | 41

What is interesting is that the Russians, who have long had the capacity to eavesdrop on conversations but until the Ukraine events have not distributed them. And now we have the Turkish phone call on yet another false flag operation making the light of day. Source? The Russians?

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 27, 2014 3:35:00 PM | 42

@Somebody;

Doesn't sound like a montage. But then again I am no expert...

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:39:00 PM | 43

If it's phony as some here suggest, it seems unduly convoluted and quite detailed. Montage? Well possibly in the sense that it might have been edited to remove stuff that wasn't relevant. And if an invention who would do it? The Russians? Turkish opponents of the govt? Means, motive and opportunity.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 27, 2014 3:54:56 PM | 44

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:39:00 PM | 43

The way they all seem to evade what the other is saying? They make it sound as if there is no interdepartmental coordination. Davutoglu is foreign minister, he would not go down to the operational level.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:00:44 PM | 45

Can we get a translation of the Kerry passage? Or maybe I'm missing it.

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 27, 2014 4:04:03 PM | 46

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:00:44 PM | 45

"Davutoglu is foreign minister, he would not go down to the operational level."

They are not talking about operational level. Anyway, you are claiming things you would have no knowledge about.

You seem particularly focused in trying to discredit this leak. ;)

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 4:08:44 PM | 47

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 3:39:00 PM | 43

"Davutoglu is foreign minister, he would not go down to the operational level."

There's nothing operational about this conversation. It's exactly what I would expect politicians to engage in. After all, they spend a lot of time considering the implications of the proposed scheme eg,

So Guler replies: "Then [if coordination is the issue] let the Prime minister call both the chief of staff and the minister for a joint meeting and act in coordination"

As to 'interdepartmental coordination [sic], this may well be some kind of 'rogue' operation or perhaps an 'unofficial' operation aka Iran-Contra for example.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 27, 2014 4:10:37 PM | 48

@Somebody;
No...the voices blend in and interact very naturally, they even occasionally raise their voices to not allow the other side cut them short and finish their sentences. It seems like the real mccoy to me.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:14:37 PM | 49

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 27, 2014 4:10:37 PM | 48

So Guler replies: "Then [if coordination is the issue] let the Prime minister call both the chief of staff and the minister for a joint meeting and act in coordination"

Who is present who could "let the Prime Minister call ..."? I listened to the Turkish tape, the way they talk over each other is strange.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:17:45 PM | 50

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 4:08:44 PM | 47

The leak does not make sense. I does not discredit Erdogan because he is not part of it. None of the actors claims to act on his orders.

As I stated I think is is a leak by Erdogan's people to justify the shutdown of social media "for security reasons".

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:21:42 PM | 51

Erdogan (E.)is fighting tooth and nail for his career. He wanted to
- buy weapons from Russia & China
- join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
- E. supported the Mavi Marmera expedition back in 2010
http://www.worldbulletin.net/gulen-movement/125437/erdogan-gulen-rift-began-with-mavi-marmara-in-2010
E. wanted to support the palestinians whereas Gulen supports Israel.

These are two things NATO didn't like and that's why NATO has made a decision to get rid of E. That's why he's demonized every day for the last weeks. I DO think E.'s days are numbered.

For the time being (!!!) I consider these "invasion" revelations as an attempt to weaken E.

There's however another interesting connection between Russia, Iran, Syria, Israel & Ukraine.

Keywords: "US neocons".

Russia helped to broker a deal between Syria & the US in 2013. (remember: nerve gas, poison gas). That didn't go down too well with the neocons. In that regard the conflict between Russia & Ukraine came to the rescue. It increased the rift between Obama & Putin. Now Russia/Putin has much less credibility in the US and that makes it more difficult for Obama to seek help from Russia. So, Russia is "out of the picture" and that makes it more easy for the neocons to push their own (Pro Israel) agenda:
- US must attack Syria.
- US must attack Iran (what Netanjahu desparately wants to happen).
So, the problems with the Ukraine could have pushed/forced Obama onto the "neocon" (pro Israel) policies again.
http://www.peterbcollins.com/2014/03/06/journalist-robert-parry-and-former-cia-analyst-ray-mcgovern-unpack-the-crisis-in-ukraine-a-neocon-production/
https://www.commondreams.org/robert-parry
https://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/03/20

Keep in mind: Obama was busy reaching a deal with Iran and didn't want to attack Syria. Two things the neocons don't like.

Posted by: Willy2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:27:06 PM | 52

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:14:37 PM | 49

Compare it to the Nuland leak, the Ashton aide with the Polish EU coordinator and the Estonian Foreign Minister with Ashton which I all consider real. None of them talk over each other like that.

You would not jump in like that in a conference call either, there you would be very careful to make sure it is your turn.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:29:52 PM | 53

somebody, that's not very convincing at all.

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 27, 2014 4:31:17 PM | 54

@L Bean (#49)

The part about Kerry starts when Davutoglu says:
"If we don't do anything, next time we won't be able to tell Kerry that we [US/Turkey/Qatar/S.Arabia] should take a firmir stance. He [Kerry] will reply back '[what firmness are you talking about] you guys did not even protect your own sovereign land [ie. the tomb of Suleyman Shah]'. Kerry on many occasions when we were talking just in a friendly capacity (I am assuming he means not in an official capacity) has asked me: 'have you guys finally reached a decision regarding an attack?'"
At this point General Guler interjects:"Mr. Minister, we have made our decision, we made our decision 100 times over! USA..."
At this point this time Sinirlioglu interjects: "Look 3 days ago there was a joint (or is the word 'general'?) staff meeting about crisis coordination, this is the first time I am hearing such a thing..."
General Guler interjects defensively: "No...We do such meetings on a regular meeting [meaning that it was not a singular even]"
But Sinirlioglu doesn't let him interrupt and continues: "and something happened in that meeting which is the first time I hear such a thing: Americans -in that meeting- have distributed the plans for "no-fly zone". This has happened for the first time in a meeting. Were you aware of that? [I am not sure to whom he directs that question]"

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:33:49 PM | 55

@Willy2:

Erdogon is on board with the neocons, supporting the jihadists in Syria. Isn't that more important to them and USG than anything you mention?

He's being demonized because he's doing stupid things like banning Facebook. It doesn't look good for a NATO power to do something like that.

Posted by: Demian | Mar 27, 2014 4:36:11 PM | 56

Correction to my previous message:

General Guler interjects defensively: "No...We do such meetings on a regular meeting [meaning that it was not a singular even]"

'meeting' should be 'basis' and there is a 't' missing at the end of 'even', it should have been singular evenT not 'singular even'

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:37:31 PM | 57

Ah ok TY Pirouz - so there isn't much more than the money quote implicating Kerry. Plenty damning though.

Kerry on many occasions when we were talking just in a friendly capacity (I am assuming he means not in an official capacity) has asked me: 'have you guys finally reached a decision regarding an attack?'

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 27, 2014 4:37:36 PM | 58

54) I don't pretend to know but consider this run up

UPDATE: *TURKEY'S DAVUTOGLU SAYS LEAK IS 'DECLARATION OF WAR': TURKIYE

As we noted here, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan had blocked Twitter access to his nation ahead of what was rumored to be a "spectacular" leak before this weekend's elections. Then this morning, amid a mad scramble, he reportedly (despite the nation's court ruling the bans illegal) blocked YouTube access.

So they knew the leak would be coming?

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:39:48 PM | 59

somebody, it's absolutely possible that they discovered a weak point in their communication, before the leak actually materialized. Why would it not be?

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 27, 2014 4:41:10 PM | 61

Posted by: L Bean | Mar 27, 2014 4:41:10 PM | 61

But isn't it very convenient when the courts just had ruled that blocking social media was illegal?

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:44:06 PM | 62

@59 - somebody - it looks more like a simultaneous situation.

Posted by: james | Mar 27, 2014 4:44:41 PM | 63

consider also this Hürriyet

“These gangs of treachery are the enemies of our state and people. The perpetrators of this attack targeting the security of our state and people will be found out in the shortest time and will be handed over to justice to be given the heaviest penalty. This treacherous attack targeting the Republic of Turkey will be disrupted,” the Foreign Ministry said in a written statement late March 27.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also strongly criticized the leakage in an election campaign in Diyarbakır on Thursday, describing the move as “immorality, dishonorableness, and vileness.” Erdoğan blamed the Fethullah Gülen community, or “Hizmet” movement, for the leak and reiterated his government’s commitment to “walk into their den.” Foregin Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu described the move as open declaration of war against the state and its people, in a statement late Thursday.

An Ankara prosecutor responsible for prosecuting crimes committed against the constitutional order immediately launched an investigation on spying charges into the leak. The prosecution will be carried out by Prosecutor Fethi Şimşek, former head of the Telecommunications Directorate (TİB).

from the same link

Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioğlu, and Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Gürel. According to the information obtained from sources, the recording consists of a chat between four officials in Davutoğlu’s office before the commencement of the official meeting with the participation of more civil and military bureaucrats in another room at the Foreign Ministry. The meeting is believed to be recorded by a hi-tech device that allows perpetrators to record a meeting within a few hundred meters distance.

That does not make sense either.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 4:53:27 PM | 64

Nobody's denying the meeting or its substance; instead, it's being confirmed. I very much doubt a Turkish political party has the tech to do such eavesdropping, but the Turkish military might and the Russian's certainly. As I said above, this is a signal of desperation, not confidence.

Posted by: karlof1 | Mar 27, 2014 5:10:21 PM | 65

Willy2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:27:06 PM | 52

I think Parry is rigth. And @pirouz_2 / somebody the leak names E. as client, he had said "Suleyman Shah tomb" should be taken as an "opportunity" - but opportunity for what exactly?

Feridun Sinirlioğlu:
“Our national security has become a common, cheap domestic policy outfit.”

Is this just a conjecture? Nobody tells - Nobody seems to know.
Definitely this mission / mandate has nothing to do with the attack on Lattakia!

Lets see, the "Tombstone" - issue was first mentioned in english by Hurriyet March/14/2014
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-ready-to-respond-any-attack-to-suleyman-shah-tomb-in-syria-fm-davutoglu-says.aspx?pageID=238&nID=63573&NewsCatID=352

There it says:

"... statement (of Davutoglu) came after clashes between opposition groups the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) intensified in the region and the al-Qaeda-affiliated organization took control of a nearby town."

So there was no threat! Davutoglu invented it.
Now look at this:
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/isis-threat-turkey-syria-jihadists.html

Semih Idiz, March 25, 2014, presented the "threat" as "brandnew" together with some domestic incidents that might or might not have involved ISIL. At the end he tells the mission:

"Most Turks would therefore like to see the government openly and categorically distancing itself from all radical groups in Syria. Growing tensions with ISIS only serve as a reminder of why this is important."

And indeed, as far as the leaks reveals, the mission is NOT against Syria, at least not directly, its against "the jihadis". It fits perfectly well that the old boys lament on what "could have been done" in 2012, when Damaskus were weakest - then they wouldn't have the mess they are in. This MESS is definitely not about how ousting Assad, how invade victoriously, but how to get rid of the jihadis both confronting them and dispatch them with fresh ammunition to Syria.

So. If there is a new offensive planned against Syria - and of that I am convinced - then it will be by the fake "secularists" in the South, contrary to what the Josua Landis allegiated Aaron Lund claims for Carnegie and with him 'b'.

But the Lattakia - attack does not fit in this scenario. Seems someone is trying to deflect the planned southern offensive to other strategic aims. I will argue for it tomorrow, now I have just my analysis in german 3 weeks ago:

http://tomgard2.blog.de/2014/03/04/israelisch-arabischer-ueberfall-damaskus-wenigen-tagen-beginnen-17874707/
with an update the next day:
http://tomgard2.blog.de/2014/03/04/update-bevorstehenden-arabisch-israelischen-offensive-damaskus-17879648/

Btw.: Someone told me the Financial Times of 3/6 was quite explizit talking about 30.000 fighters ready for combat but still the chain of command not fully established. I don't have money to climb the paywall, perhaps one of you guys can do it.

Posted by: TomGard | Mar 27, 2014 5:13:12 PM | 66

I'm going to repost a comment I made on an earlier thread.

"...It's important to understand that the Zionist entity insured Erdogan's re-election when he was way, way down in the polls pre-election. With the attack on the flotilla Israel gave him a 'gift' that allowed Erdo to win. One of the most evil campaign stunts in the history of elections I've ever seen, or heard of.

Posted by: okie farmer | Mar 22, 2014 4:21:41 AM

Erdogan's (party) chances of winning this upcoming election are poor. What he needs is a rallying theme. What better than provoking Syria to attack Turkey (with or without US support), similar to Israel's providing the rallying theme described above.

As several have noted, he's fighting for his political life, willing to pull out all stops, go for broke.

Posted by: okie farmer | Mar 27, 2014 5:16:36 PM | 67


Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:14:37 PM | 49

Au contraire, that's exactly what a conference call would sound like, with people talking over each other. We hear it differently. I haven't heard the tape (if that's what it is), so I can only go on what's been said here. But I have read the transcript on Good Morning Turkey and it sounds like a lot of people, with a lot of power, talking through things.

There's also the question of the translation. It's pretty bad. Whoever translated it is not very familiar with spoken English.


There's also the question of any editing that's taken place, which if it is a fake, it kinda makes these ramblings useless.

Which brings me on to the final point; that it's been planted to discredit Erdogan (I note the refs to his support of the Mavi Marmara, closer ties to Russia, China etc in an earlier Erdogan incarnation).

Hmmm... of course it's possible but then that would mean he had already been 'got at' by the Empire, wouldn't it? I read Erdogan as a rank opportunist like most professional politicians, who'll get blown this way and that, so clearly he gets some of his marching orders from the Empire, but which ones? And no doubt, if he gets in the way of the Empire, they surely will blow him out of the way. But is this the tool to do it with?

Sacrifice the top people in Erdogan's government? People, who do have the shit on everything? It seems awfully complicated. Why not set up him in a hotel room with a babe? Better still a guy babe.

This is what the Beeb had to say about it:

Earlier, what appeared to be a leaked audio recording of Turkish officials discussing Syria appeared on YouTube.

It relates to a discussion of possible military operations in Syria, which was apparently attended by Turkey's intelligence chief, its foreign minister and the deputy head of the armed forces.

Reuters news agency, which examined the recording, said it could not verify its authenticity but it was potentially the most damaging purported leak so far as it appeared to have originated from the bugging of a highly confidential and sensitive conversation.

Mr Erdogan, who faces important local elections on Sunday, accuses social media of spreading misinformation and suggested earlier that bans could be applied to both YouTube and Facebook. - 'Turkey moves to block YouTube access after 'audio leak'', BBC News Website, 27 March 2014

Which suggests that the Empire doesn't want us to think it's important. Maybe...maybe not.

Now who would be in a position to bug that conversation? Pretty much everyone who cares to I would have thought.

Posted by: William Bowles | Mar 27, 2014 5:17:48 PM | 68

Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:33:49 PM | 55

and following up #66

The "no fly zone" doesn't fit in the tombstone - scenario neither in the Lattakia - attack that looks more like a distraction because they took difficult terrain they can dig into, but not go forward.
NFZ is for the coming attack in the south.

Posted by: TomGard | Mar 27, 2014 5:22:06 PM | 69

from the Hürriyet Link

The ministry statement confirmed the meeting, in which the situation regarding the Süleyman Shah Tomb was discussed, but said the leaked content was “distorted.”

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 5:32:31 PM | 71

@William Bowles (#68)

LOL...The lousy translation belongs to yours truly!! I know a bit of Turkish and I am the one who translated it from the original YouTube clip (which was in Turkish) that 'b' linked.
As much as my spoken English maybe bad I can vouch for the correctness of my translation of the content.
I did pretty much translate the whole of the first clip without leaving a lot behind and I went as far as half way through the second clip.
For whatever it is worth (I am not an expert), I think that the tapes are authentic. The conversation sounds very natural. You must remember that it is a very unofficial conversation conducted in a "friendly" manner. So interruptions are very natural as in any heated conversation between people. The commenter who doubted the authenticity was "Somebody" and not I.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 5:35:06 PM | 72

@TomGard;

Maybe I didn't do a good job of translating. But the issue of "no-fly zone" was only introduced as a "news" (at least to some of the people in the room) by Sinirlioglu. I didnt get the feeling that he meant it as directly related to a possible incursion by Turkey into Syria.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 5:39:17 PM | 73

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 4:33:49 PM | 55

What you posted doesn't appear in the translated part. Have you got a link to any of the rest?

Posted by: scalawag | Mar 27, 2014 5:42:52 PM | 74

Scalwag;
I think there is a confusion here. All I did was to go to the link provided by 'b', listened to the original conversation in Turkish (which was on the clip) and translated to the best of my very limited ability the first clip and some parts of the second clip. The stuff posted by me are my own translation from the clip and I did NOT read them from anywhere else.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 5:52:38 PM | 75

There were some Turkish commenters who used to come to this site (eg. Kodlu), I am sure they can do a more decent job than I can. But unless they take the time and do some translation I am afraid you guys are stuck with either me or the other available translations (partial?) online. Sorry about that... LOL

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 5:55:49 PM | 76

This here is USAToday's Summary of the leak - sounding like b.'s with the same source.

An audio recording leaked on YouTube appears to reveal that top Turkey officials were plotting to fake an attack against their own country as an excuse to wage war on Turkey.

Turkey on Thursday blocked access to YouTube in the same week it banned Twitter after someone posted the audio recording.

The audio claims to be a recording of Turkey's foreign minister, its intelligence chief and an undersecretary of foreign affairs discussing plans to stage attacks on Turkey from Syrian soil to justify waging a counterattack on Syria, says Ilhan Tanir of the Turkish Daily Today's Zaman in Istanbul.

I guess they mean Syria in the first paragraph. Today's Zaman is Gülen and Erdogan claims Gülen is behind the leak.

The leak has nothing to do with Turkey planning an actual attack on Syria.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 5:57:28 PM | 77

@somebody:

Discussing moving Turkish tanks into Syria "has nothing to do with" attacking Syria???

Am I the only one who things Russia is behind this, i.e., bugging taping the conversation and leaking it? This seems to be the FSB's M.O. of late. I don't know of any other intelligence service that makes a habit of leaking conversations it intercepts. (Incidentally, since the FSB engages in legitimate intelligence operations, unlike the NSA, its secrets do not get leaked.)

Posted by: Demian | Mar 27, 2014 6:10:19 PM | 79

On second thought, after reading Willy2's boilingfrogspost link, it looks like the NSA and/or Mosad was behind this.

Posted by: Demian | Mar 27, 2014 6:22:26 PM | 80

79) It is election politics, I think. Turkey would never dare to attack Turkey without the US doing it first.

This is another interesting take on what Erdogan is trying to do

In other words, Erdogan’s strategy is to demonize social media. .... Erdogan is not trying to block social media as much as taint it. .... UPDATE: On 3/27, YouTube was also blocked in Turkey with the executive decision of the governing agency, TIB. The context of this ban is an alleged recording of Erdogan’s inner circle, including the Foreign Minister, the ramifications of an incursion into with Syria. For many days, a Twitter account who claims to be a mole in Erdogan’s inner circle had been “predicting” that Erdogan was considering war with Syria as a means to gather support or distract.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 6:26:55 PM | 81

Turkey would never dare to attack Syria ...

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 6:27:40 PM | 82

Apparently the policy of Western state propaganda organs like the New York Times and the BBC is to go totally dark on these leaks, but where is their response to Obamas' Grotesquely dishonest speech in Brussels ? His extended remarks concerning contemporary world history vis-a- vis the massive US invasion and brutal 10 year occupation of Iraq were so bizzare, so completely removed from reality they could have come from the mouth of Kim Jong Il, or Idi Amin. Where is the NYT response? Where is the BBC's response to the Americans presidents' serial falsification of the entire sorry action? Western corporate media have truly, become NOTHING but cyphers for US/EU/NATO psy-ops and propaganda distortions..

Posted by: Marc | Mar 27, 2014 6:44:32 PM | 83

Turkey would never dare to attack Syria ...

They attack Syria for three years now. And remember the Phantomas-inscident. Who claimed to "know all about it" and who stayed silent and let NATO declare "Bündnisfall" on stock? (Don't know the english word, I think its § 5 of NATO-Treaty) And who literally gifted Putin with "South Stream"? And who is now desperately than ever interested, that there will be no gas-pipelines from the Gulf to the mediterranian, be it from Qatar or Iran? And who invested instead a lot in Oil Kurd / Iraki Oil industries and pipelines sidelining Syria, and in the same time struck deals with Israel and Turkey for shareholding and investment in Levant Gas - fields? And who got literally gifted with all Gas that will be found / lifted from Lattakia coast by a "Production Sharing Aggreement" with Syria that is like two peas in a pod with the ancient Yukos / Sibneft PSA's?

There is more in it than meets the eyes ...

Posted by: TomGard | Mar 27, 2014 6:55:00 PM | 84

@Demian @80 so it was a triple fklase flag "op", eh? Diabolical! ....

Did it ever occur to you that it is exactly what it sounds like - Turkish govt. apparatchiks discussing more provocations in Syria, where they are, along with the US, France and Israel, supporting a massive mercenary army trying to overthrow the government ? That Russia could not "fake" this conversation unless Turkey and its government and all its ministers are secretly and massively plotting with the Russians against NATO, an organization to which Turkey has belonged for decades? And that the NSA/US could gain NOTHING from staging this?

Posted by: Marc | Mar 27, 2014 6:55:21 PM | 85

Seems to be mutiny in Turkey.

Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has said he had seen a footage showing Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan watching a 2010 sex tape that forced the main opposition's then-leader Deniz Baykal to resign.

"I watched it. Those who made Prime Minister Erdoğan watch the footage [secretly] filmed him, too. The latest audio recording consists of their conversations," Kılıçdaroğlu told on Kanaltürk television March 27.
An audio recording released late on March 25 allegedly portrays Erdoğan speaking about the video regarding Baykal even before it was uploaded onto YouTube and giving orders for the release of the video. The tape was said to have shown Baykal allegedly having an affair with a female politician.

"Erdoğan was filmed by the webcam of the computer that he used to watch the tape. I've never seen a man lying so scurvily. Mr. Baykal knows it and this is why he's now suing Erdoğan," Kılıçdaroğlu added on Kanaltürk.

When asked about why he waited until today to speak out, Kılıçdaroğlu answered: "I didn't have the recording as it was not given to me then. A screenshot from the film [showing Erdoğan watching the tape] is now leaked to the Internet, so, I'm revealing it."

Now, this has Erdogan in it, and this is presumably why youtube got blocked and why the other scandal was created.

Imagine, Erdogan filmed whilst watching porn.

Posted by: somebody | Mar 27, 2014 6:58:23 PM | 86

#86: So Erdogan's people leaked themselves that conversation about going into Turkey, so they would have an excuse to cut off YouTube? Sounds plausible, I suppose, since there had been talk of cutting off YouTube before.

This is getting curiouser and curiouser. At least there is little chance of this coming to a civil war, unlike in the Ukraine.

I had heard of Gülen before, and knew that he has many powerful followers in Turkey, but I did not know that he is Zionist backed and CIA run.

Posted by: Demian | Mar 27, 2014 7:19:32 PM | 87

Pirouz_2, thanks!

Posted by: claudio | Mar 27, 2014 7:46:24 PM | 88

So what if one's fellow travelers are actually not loyal, part of the team, got their own ideas?

Given that everyone is being snooped on and capable of snooping, and barring resorting to communicating by grunting to each other inside brown paper bags, one indispensable ingredient now appears to be loyalty. The potential for betrayal is everywhere, everywhere. And what's a criminal's (from common to Kissinger) career opportunities or life expectancy without the shroud of secrecy.

And loyalty is a hard one to cement into place. Whether Snowden is some species of 'limited hangout', as Webster Tarpley asserts, or not, and whatever secrets he has or hasn't revealed, its his example, Snowden as role model, that threatens good things for reason and sanity. It was so much easier, so much safer, to lie, and say stupid things, and safely plan vile crimes, in the good old days.

It also may be politically safer to be vile and stupid and dishonest in public than it is privately: In public, posturing is assumed; a Rob Ford can retain his core support no matter how cocaine and alcohol and ineptitude-addled he is publicly. But when someone is overheard conspiring behind closed doors, prurient gossip loving humanity pricks it ears and then listens with special intensity and is scandalized, scandalized.

Blackmail has been one key to the control System. But now: the blackmailers themselves are increasingly worried.

The questions who did this and what was intended and what is likely to result are important, and endlessly fascinating. But maybe the 'secret teams' out there, high or low, and the cops who go bad, etc, all the powerful who used to have it all their own way, have to worry more now, look over their shoulder constantly now, to see if they can get a glance of the shadow of either anonymous loyalty to decency, or anonymous disloyalty to depravity.

Posted by: Robert Snefjella | Mar 27, 2014 8:14:15 PM | 89

The vimeo link in the article seems to be dead/wrong. Found this one, maybe replace or update?

Posted by: peter radiator | Mar 27, 2014 8:20:36 PM | 90

#82

As far as i can see, it's not about attacking "Syria" but attacking "these men" (isil, from what I understand). In effect, that would probably be the same, but "officially" Turkey wouldn't go to war with Syria then. Not attack, but defend and so on, you probably know the lingo.

translation
Yaşar Güler: This is reason to war (casus belli). What we will do is directly a reason to war.
Hakan Fidan: Not a reason to war with Syria.
Yaşar Güler: No, these men.

Posted by: peter radiator | Mar 27, 2014 8:27:49 PM | 91

Neither BBC nor CNN is reporting the content of the recording. More censorship. What could be more newsworthy: false flag planning caught red-handed!

Posted by: fairleft | Mar 27, 2014 8:37:25 PM | 92

b, you should correct two typos:

- "Erdogan seems to have lost not only his voice but also his mind." (lost is missing in the text)

- demonization instead of demonetization

Posted by: claudio | Mar 27, 2014 8:38:58 PM | 93

Pete radiator;

They are perfectly aware of the fact that they will be declaring war on Syrian regime. That is why at the beginning of the conversation they lump ISIS (or ISIL or whatever the hell it is called) with the Syrian regime together as "allies". Sinirlioglu is also wary of giving too much of warning ahead of time to the Syrian regime rather than surprising them.
What they mean when they say that it will be a war against ISIL and not against the regime -IMO- is just an international diplomatic cover for the benefit of the international public, to make it seem like a fight against AQ rather than directly against the sovereign regime of Syria.
They even openly say that if they claim that they are going in Syria to fight against ISIL they will have international support because after all they would be fighting AQ.

@all
My conclusion is that, the issue of attack on Syria is like a hot potato which they pass along to each other. All of them want to look tough without wanting to accept the responsibility of a possible attack.
The funny one is General Guler, the poor man confronted with the minister and his advisor (Sinirlioglu) seems like a timid animal to me. It looks to me like on one hand he doesn't want to look too dovish and perhaps bring the wrath of Sultan Erdogan on himself, on the other hand he hates the idea of accepting the responsibility of such an operation and wants to shift the responsibility on Hakan Fidan's and the Erdogan government's shoulders.
And even funnier is Davutoglu's (and sinirlioglu's) position, they keep trying to shift the responsibility on Guler's shoulder making the military responsible for the operation (sinirlioglu even says clearly that he thinks that military should not wait for a command from Erdogan and rather should take the initiative). As if it was the military which created all these problems to begin with. Very conveniently they overlook the fact that it was Erdogan and Davutoglu who created this problem to begin with. They are personally responsible for this shit. Exhibiting an unequaled level chutzpah they talk about the extreme security danger that a region governed by ISIS Islamists would pose on their national security, as if it was my grand father who armed/trained and brought islamists to Syria and then painted them as "freedom fighters"! And now they expect military to make operations inside Syria with its own responsibility.

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 8:53:44 PM | 94

@88 I second that, great job Pirouz. I think W. Bowles might of had your translation confused with the rather choppy one posted by b.

Somebody, I don't want to be harsh, but your suppositions are silly: "You would not jump in like that in a conference call either, there you would be very careful to make sure it is your turn...he would not go down to the operational level...the way they talk over each other is strange." You base your idea of how high level Turkish ministers act during their conference calls on what, exactly?

Your theory strikes me as somewhat similar to those who thought that Wikileaks was a US front because some of the released cables were rather kind to the US. I think you've got the chicken and the egg switched up. You're saying this: The tapes, which contain evidence of a false flag operation, are themselves a false flag operation, all so Erdogab could ban social media. This, in my opinion, is too clever by half.

It seems we are asking this: did Erdogan release the tape to ban YouTube, or is Erdogan banning YouTube because the tape was released? I think the later. If Erdogan did this himself, he would have to have a reason for shutting down social media more compelling than the damage which is done by these leaks. And the damage could be immense. The tapes are too too high a price to pay for the cheap good of the social media ban. Certainly he could have found a way to ban YouTube without having to expose his chief allies preparing a fake attack on their own country? Literally any vacuous conversation would have done in its stead. Releasing something this dramatic would be insane.

The social media ban is a political WMD - if Erdogan is doing it, it is because he is desperate. It smacks of reaction, not of a well considered plan. He is really entering uncharted territory. None of his NATO allies will be able to back him rhetorically as it is one of the "civilized" wests big no-no's. And he'll be further enraging the Turkish population with the ban, on top of the rage that will come when the Turks - who absolutely do not want a war with Syria - discover that high officials of the AKP seen trying to concoct one. There are things that could be more politically damaging to Erdogan and his party - and with the elections only days away, it seems clear to me that the YouTube ban is certainly meant to limit dissemination of this extremely damaging call.

It seems like too much of a coincidence that yet another phone call amongst NATO higher ups is leaked. The answer to cui bono? does point to Moscow. The exposure of this call stops dead in its tracks a potential Turkish military operation against Syria and it also points to an American hand in a truly underhanded scheme just as the Russians are trying to expose US/NATO machinations in Ukraine. But to assume the Russians and then say "case closed" would be silly. This isn't the first tape of Erdogan to have emerged and it is hard (though not impossible) to imagine Russia being behind all of the recent embarrassing leaks. It could be anyone. As Juan Moment pointed out, there are few people who don't have Erdogan on their hit list at this point.

Whoever has put out the leak - they are pulling out all the stops. These leaked phone calls are certainly akin to revealing a secret weapon: you do it when you feel it can have maximum impact, knowing that you have a short time to use it to maximum effect before the enemy comes up with strategies to cope. Apparently strategies like sitting in a tent inside your hotel room aren't a proper defense.

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 27, 2014 9:10:13 PM | 95

it is in every sense of the word pirouz, byzantine

Posted by: remembererringgiap | Mar 27, 2014 9:12:53 PM | 96

@95

There are things that could be more politically damaging to Erdogan

should read

There are few things that could be more politically damaging to Erdogan

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 27, 2014 9:17:21 PM | 97

@Claudio and guest77 as well as all others who read my translation:

You are welcome. :)

Posted by: Pirouz_2 | Mar 27, 2014 9:27:26 PM | 98

@94 Excellent analysis.

Comparing such men to mafia dons would certainly be unfair - to mafia dons.

They won't even take responsibility for their deeds, though you can be certain they'd be crashing through Erdogan's door to take the credit if it went "well".

Such dangerous traitors to their own people. Such moral mice.

What a truly pathetic display.

Posted by: guest77 | Mar 27, 2014 9:30:36 PM | 99

@ Pirouz_2 - yes, thanks indeed for your translations!

Posted by: ahji | Mar 27, 2014 10:06:06 PM | 100

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