Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 21, 2009

Is It Over?

Juan Cole headlines: Downtown Tehran Burning. That is wishful thinking and certainly not the only thing he got wrong.

Is the 'revolution' in Tehran that was none over as Arnold Evans assumes?

While not certain I think mostly yes.

With only 3,000 fighting in the streets yesterday there are too few willing to seriously challenge the government's authority. It seems that expressing discontent and frustration is one thing and risking ones health for a change in government something else. The police and other government forces have not turned on the government and as long as do not do so there is little chance that the few will have any effect but to disgruntle their compatriots by disturbing their daily business.

I doubt that a general strike Mousavi asks for will happen. He does not have the charisma, the numbers and cause to do lead one.

There will be a few more rowdy nights in Tehran, lots of faked or not faked violence videos for the 'western' voyeurs and the usual 'western' officials who will feign outrage.

But unless something really big happens, the crisis will now peter out. Unfortunately the damage done to Iran's image will only be repaired over a longer time frame. That was certainly not the intend of the people on the streets in Tehran, but likely the intend of the people who planed and started this.

Posted by b on June 21, 2009 at 11:44 AM | Permalink

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My take for the following week is as follows
Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani clan arrested: Incumbent goverment knows it has the backing of majority of the ruling class, hence it can do this arrest.

Mumbarack and Barack meeting: The next phase will move to Egypt.

Calling a general strike More like a general flop.

Iran will be stronger after this, they will be some reform to the oppressive laws but more then most corruption will be reduced.

Posted by: Hans | Jun 21, 2009 12:00:36 PM | 1

I think Iran will become more paranoid, at least the leadership will.

So far, they haven't seen any western meddling until AFTER the issues started. Now, in their minds, there will be lots of people who will listen to Western influences and be susceptible to some kind of "colour revolution". In fact, if you're a western power intent on destablising, now is the best time for cash handouts and setting up your cells in Iran.

Reflexively, all dissidence even if legitimate will be stamped down hard. And thus the long road down to tyranny.

Posted by: shanks | Jun 21, 2009 12:41:13 PM | 2

I'm personally not interested in what Juan Cole says. The demonstrations are continuing but the regime is using water cannon exclusively as far as I can gather down here. They've realized murder is counter-productive and Neda has become a national symbol of regime brutality, more so than Zahra Kazemi who was illegally taking pictures outside Evin Prison despite signs along the walls forbidding photography.

And no, it's by no means over.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 12:48:42 PM | 3

unless the general strike materialises, it's over

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 1:01:45 PM | 4

Don't forget the boredom factor. It will take quite a bit more bloodshed to draw people away from Jon and Kate.

Posted by: dh | Jun 21, 2009 1:02:22 PM | 5

Did anyone note that Iranian Americans were protesting outside of the CNN studio in Atlanta yesterday? They don't even no why they're protesting. You can't have a revolution if no one can articulate why they're revolting, what they're revolting against, and what they want in place of what they have. If those basics aren't even adressed, all you will get is more of the same, and blood spilled unnecessarily. A protest does not a revolution make.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 1:10:18 PM | 6

Not just Atlanta, either. This thing's really gone viral.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Iranian-Americans demonstrated on the streets of Washington on Wednesday evening, marching from the Iranian diplomatic offices to the Russian embassy, in protest of both governments’ actions.

The demonstration came in the wake of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev hosting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Moscow on Tuesday, despite allegations of ballot fraud in Ahmadinejad’s re-election last week.

“We’re hoping that the world attention does not end from what the Iranians are doing right now, because this is not going to end in the next few days, because this is a long haul, a long battle,” said Washington protest and group organizer Morteza Ahmady. “Iranians are very capable of deciding their own destiny.”

The group Whereismyvote.org organized the demonstration of about 100 people and aims to build support for its “global protest” this Saturday.

“I think it’s a very new thing from a historical point of view; it’s a civic movement. People try to keep it as nonviolent and civil as possible,” said group organizer Negar Mortarzavi.

In Russia, Ahmadinejad was welcomed as the “newly re-elected president of Iran,” with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov telling reporters, “the issue of elections in Iran is an internal affair of the Iranian people.”

Eighty-five percent of the country’s 46 million eligible voters went to the polls last Friday, an unprecedented turnout, Iran’s interior ministry said. When the ballots were counted, the government declared Ahmadinejad the winner, with 62.63 percent of the vote. The man many analysts had widely expected to win, Mir Hossein Moussavi, received 33.75 percent.

The speed with which the election results were released insulted the Iranian people, said Ahmady, who cited that as a sign of fraud.

Moussavi’s camp has demanded new elections.

Sarah, a Washington protester who would give only her first name, agreed.

“We’re not saying that pro-Ahmadinejad supporters don’t exist; they do exist,” she said. “And we’re saying that, yes, if they indeed did win the vote, then the election should be theirs, because we are a democratic people. But we don’t feel comfortable with the numbers that came out of Iran. And we’re not saying that we don’t accept it altogether. We’re just asking for a revote.”

http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2009/06/18/iranian-americans-protest-outside-russian-embassy/>Iranian-Americans protest outside Russian embassy

Seriously, though, what do these "protesters" hope to accomplish by protesting in D.C. outside of the Iranian and Russian Embassies? What could possibly come of such an act? Is it just pure symbolism?

Note the part I bolded. Sorry, but that's definately Color Revolution tactics and has Intelligence Services written all over it. Global protest?

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 1:18:27 PM | 7


Iran's central government should begin to delegate more authority to provincial governments with respect to those issues/reforms that can be addressed locally i.e lifestlye issues, moral codes, religious codes, marriage laws ...

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 21, 2009 1:19:22 PM | 8

"They've realized murder is counter-productive"

Its about time. I hope you are right about that. I think I've been saying it all week. It is true of course, that if such a demonstration happened in Egypt, Mubarak would gladly kill 10 times as many and the world would barely notice. But that is not much comfort to protesters in Iran.

If Parviz is right and the government can contain the protests without death or serious injury, then the worst may be over. If demonstrators are willing to push things to the point where police "are forced" to kill, then maybe not.

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 21, 2009 1:21:32 PM | 9

"Unfortunately the damage done to Iran's image will only be repaired over a longer time frame."

Damage? What damage would that be?

Posted by: PeakVT | Jun 21, 2009 1:24:17 PM | 10

but business is business so cnn & sister in arms huffington post continue in their hysteric fashion

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 1:27:08 PM | 11

not to diminish the death of 'neda' - these evil commenters on the mass media would not be able to remember one name, not one name of those slaughtered in gaza let alone the million deaths in iraq

it appears only some deaths are worthy of a name

what that says,, inplicitly is too horrifying to contemplate

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 1:33:48 PM | 12

@jbc - @8 Iran's central government should begin to delegate more authority to provincial governments with respect to those issues/reforms that can be addressed locally i.e lifestlye issues, moral codes, religious codes, marriage laws ...

Just wondering ... would that not likely be more suppressive if every local wingnut can up their own rules?

Posted by: b | Jun 21, 2009 1:35:09 PM | 13

Exactly, r'giap. What it says is that Classism is every bit as insidious as Racism, and often they're one in the same and equally capable of systemically grotesque distortions and atrocities.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 1:38:44 PM | 14

Well, bang on cue at 10 p.m. this evening the streets of Tehran rang with the deafening sound of Allah Akbar and Death to the Dictator, louder than anything I've heard before. A few thousand protestors are battling the Guards in downtown Tehran and there are still protests across the country.

Iran Khodro, Iran's largest automobile manufacturer, is on strike in sympathy with the protesters.

5 of the key figures in Iran's revolutionary history have condemned the vote rigging, namely:

1. Rafsanjani, former 2-term President and Chairman of the Council of Experts which chooses the Supreme Leader.

2. Larijani, Chief Nuclear Negotiator under Khatemi Speaker of the current hardline Parliament.

3. Moussavi, the 8-year prime minister and the rightful President

4. Khatemi, 2-term President.

5. Karroubi, former Parliamentary Speaker whose reformist newspaper is the most widely read in Iran (yet he ended up allegedly with only 300,000 votes!?!)

... plus many SENIOR Grand Ayatollahs including Montazeri, Sanei, Taeri (= more senior than Khatemi who is simply an 'Ayatollah'),

.... not to forget the 50 million pissed-off Iranians.

I love the caption of this thread. There's not an immediate change of government and you think "it's over", thereby ignoring the fact that it took one whole year of on-again, off-again demonstrations to get rid of the Shah.

It's over? The title is not only wildly premature but follows the same pattern visible in every other thread except mine ...

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 1:56:06 PM | 15

& iranians will have to remember that in gaza we watched people being bombed before our very eyes. their lives extinguished - the world believed that monster regev when he sd what we were seeing was actually the opposite of what we were seeing. & while 1500 were being slaughtered - those cretin journalist sytayed at rich hotels & tel aviv & spent their time visiting the few place the palestinian fire rockets actually connected.

you are other. your dead bodies mean nothing to them. to them you are only elements within a crueler configuration

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 2:00:08 PM | 16

Sorry for the typo: I meant more senior than Khamnei.

Here's Iran Khodro's declaration:

Strike in Iran Khodro:

We declare our solidarity with the movement of the people of Iran.

Autoworker, Fellow Laborers (Laborer Friends): What we witness today, is an insult to the intelligence of the people, and disregard for their votes, the trampling of the principles of the Constitution by the government. It is our duty to join this people's movement.

We the workers of Iran Khodro, Thursday 28/3/88 in each working shift will stop working for half an hour to protest the suppression of students, workers, women, and the Constitution and declare our solidarity with the movement of the people of Iran. The morning and afternoon shifts from 10 to 10:30. The night shift from 3 to 3:30.

Laborers of IranKhodro

So whoever thinks this was a Gucci-Revolution (personified by the infamous Parviz), and not broad-based as I have stated all along, is uninformed at best and ideologically handicapped at worst. B, didn't you jump the gun a little with this thread?

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:02:13 PM | 17


b@13,
I think it depends on how its done. Some local wingnuts especially the more clerically inclined will see it as an opportunity to harden the rules. But locally elected officials will generally be under pressure to relax rules/codes particularly in Tehran and other large cities. The trick would be to delegate the authority to elected officials, some of whom are in fact clerics.

Also, if things were more relaxed in Teheran, activists & progressives there can channel more efforts towards helping ease things in other more rigid areas rather than have to confront the monolithic central government on every issue. And this can help bridge the divide we have seen between the city & rural folks.

I suspect most Teherani could live with occasionally having to defer to different codes when they travel out into the country for a few days.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 21, 2009 2:02:57 PM | 18

I suspect most Teherani could live with occasionally having to defer to different codes when they travel out into the country for a few days.

Jony_b_cool:

What utter rubbish. Have you ever been to the north, 800 km of Caspian coastline where th rules are more relaxed than Tehran? Or to Kermanshah where you are offered alcoghol without even asking for it?

This is a broad-based, nationwide demand for personal and political freedom. Foreigners are continually blinded by the regime's rent-a-crowds you see on CNN and have not the foggiest clue what is going on in my country. People actually leave Tehran and visit the Caspian for more freedom. Please comment only on what you've personally witnessed.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:09:36 PM | 19

Lysander (9), let me amplify:

The regime thought nothing about mudering senior intellectual Ayatollah Beheshti or knifing liberal Ayatollah Taleghani soon after the Revolution, but today they don't even dare murder a former prime minister who was dragged back into politics after 20 years of retirement. If they do there will be civil war.

THIS is the big difference between then and now, the caption of this thread notwithstanding.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:13:27 PM | 20

Sorry, jony, I've promised myself (and Lizard) to reform. I just saw red when I saw the title of this thread which is in complete contrast to events on the ground.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:18:44 PM | 21

Goodnight, everyone, I don't want to repeat my marathon of last night (I can already hear the cheers).

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:19:28 PM | 22


Parviz.. quite dribbling so much shit you idiot.
I love it how you think you speak on behalf of "50 million pissed off Iranians". You don't even speak for one.

Posted by: Ehsan | Jun 21, 2009 2:20:58 PM | 23

thereby ignoring the fact that it took one whole year of on-again, off-again demonstrations to get rid of the Shah.

It is you who are conveniently ignoring the fact that you got rid of the Shah only to replace him with an equally opressive and tyranical rule by Islamic Clerics.

There will be no change in Government from this, even if it becomes more than just protests. If there is a change, it will be purely superficial with some minor, lipstick on a pig concessions to the groveling swine, otherwise business as usual and the big shaft for the majority of the Iranian people.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 2:26:09 PM | 24

Sorry, still lurking ...

Jeez, Obamageddon, how old are you? Honestly. This thread is about whether "it's over" or not, and I gave a simple example of how long such things can take even in the best of circumstances. And you pipe up with some asinine comment that condemns my nation to eternal corruption and damnation. Clean up your own nation first before spitting at mine. Your post was nothing but fatuous "lipstick on a pig" drivel.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:33:40 PM | 25

The regime thought nothing about mudering senior intellectual Ayatollah Beheshti or knifing liberal Ayatollah Taleghani soon after the Revolution, but today they don't even dare murder a former prime minister who was dragged back into politics after 20 years of retirement. If they do there will be civil war.

There's that word again, yet without definition. From the context of this particular statement, one can infer that by regime, you mean the ruling clerical establishment, but it's not perfectly clear and you won't clarify or elaborate. On another thread, you claim that you support an Islamic Republic, yet here it looks like you are refrring to the ruling power of that republic as the regime, and regime change has been proferred as part of these protests. So what, exactly, does regime change mean, then? It appears to be a contradiction. If the regime is the ruling clerical establishment, and the protest, amongst other things, seeks regime change, then by definition, the protest seeks to displace clerical rule, yet you say you support an Islamic Republic and its attendant constitution. How do you reconcile this apparent contradiction?

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 2:35:10 PM | 26


also, an 85% turnout was reported and if we can assume that was higher than expected, we would expect that some polling-stations would have experienced & reported delays as a result of ballot-papers running out. And one would expect a pretty uniform pattern of run-outs across the country. Hence, some correlations & patterns may be visible by applying elementary and easily understandable statistics on the run-outs, where they occurred, where they did not occur, who won there, ...

ideally, the required data is available at the MOI. But some of it should be available from local newspapers or from local officials, candidate-representatives too & possibly voters.

it would be particularly interesting to examine those voting precincts that reported really high turnouts but no accompanying run-out.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 21, 2009 2:35:45 PM | 27

Ehsan,

Murderous revolutionary guard and militia thugs are always welcome on this thread. Enjoy the following committed by your thug friends:


Baseej cold-blooded muder

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:39:42 PM | 28

"On another thread, you claim that you support an Islamic Republic"

O-My-Godden, What have you been drinking? or should I say, smoking?

Please provide the link to any thread where I've 'supported' the Islamic Republic.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:41:56 PM | 29

Parviz,

If you're still awake, what are your thoughts on Shimon Perez openly 'supporting' the protesters in Haaretz today? Is he sincere or is he throwing Ahmadinejad a lifeline, knowing it will be parroted in Iranian media?

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 21, 2009 2:42:20 PM | 30

Parviz et al: what do you thik about MK Bhadrakumar's article on Asia Times (Asia Cautions US on Iran, June 20). He seems to see this event as an ill-timed and dangerous attempt by the clerics, using Rafsanjani as their stalking horse, to counter the attacks on their privileges and authority lead by Ahmadinejad.

Posted by: senecal | Jun 21, 2009 2:45:48 PM | 31

Lysander, I was frankly horrified. He should have kept his mouth shut unless, of course, he wants Ahmadinejad to succeed and give Israel the excuse it needs to divert attention from its own atrocities, and maybe even bomb Iran. These Israelis do tend to be Machiavellian, you know.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:46:10 PM | 32

This thread is about whether "it's over" or not, and I gave a simple example of how long such things can take even in the best of circumstances.

If the time frame is from 1979 until today, it's still not over, so how old are you that you can't think in multiple perspectives? The revolution never ended, or was never resolved adequately. Deposing the Shah was only one leg of that campaign. Another leg was replacing his opressive monarchical rule with a form of Government that was the antithesis of the previous tyranical system. That leg never manifested. The Mullahs usurped the Iranian people's hopeful future and coopted what could have been a complete revolution. So, we're in agreement in a general sense. These things take a long time. This particular revolution is 30 years and counting so far.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 2:46:29 PM | 33

Lysander, I realize yours was a rhetorical question, as Peres knew very well what the effect of his words would be.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:47:41 PM | 34

My final, final goodnight. I hope Ehsan has some really juicy Faustian nightmares.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:48:33 PM | 35

Please provide the link to any thread where I've 'supported' the Islamic Republic.

It was you, or Amir, but since you said Amir's post was required reading for all non-Iranians, I assume you are in agreement with Amir. I'm not going to look it up. I don't have the time, but it made me scratch my head when I read it. Either way, you are still avoiding the question and you refuse to elaborate and clarify.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 2:50:33 PM | 36

Parviz, how can you sleep at a time like this? I know I couldn't. Arenaline keeps me up, as it does most normal people. Of course, if it's just a job, I can understand the fatigue and the need for rest after a long day's work.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 2:53:04 PM | 37

hmm ... Angela Merkel et al now call for a new election. So the free world now accepts Iran as a democracy, all is well if the vote is regular. I would call that a huge PR success ...

Now, after the problem with Iran has been framed in this way - if Iran can document in English :-)) - that the election process was ok. - they will have won the PR battle.

Posted by: outsider | Jun 21, 2009 2:53:41 PM | 38

37, for the record, I've never supported the essence of the Islamic Republic. I HAVE supported the Islamic Republic's support of Hamas and Hezbollah, but that's not the same thing.

Lysander, you guessed right. I'm still awake. Let's see how long I can stay awake, but I have to feed my family too and they're pissed of because my wife only sees me behind a computer all evening (after being away all day).

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 2:56:40 PM | 39


Pravda:

Genuine Protests or US Plan to Destabilize Iran?

Posted by: Anon | Jun 21, 2009 2:57:33 PM | 40

After wavering between this and that and here and there, I'm saying this is a color revolution full of Western and Israeli black ops. My sympathies to all the sincere people.

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21, 2009 3:00:15 PM | 41

Lysander, I was frankly horrified. He should have kept his mouth shut unless, of course, he wants Ahmadinejad to succeed and give Israel the excuse it needs to divert attention from its own atrocities, and maybe even bomb Iran. These Israelis do tend to be Machiavellian, you know.

How ironic you refernce Machiavelli here in regards to Israel, your supposed enemy. You remember what Mach said about friends and enemies, don't you? Don't under estimate your enemy, Parviz, if Israel really is your enemy. I'm sure Israel has many plans to destabilize Iran, and bombing is just one of many contigencies. Your plan is equally as enticing and makes Iran that much more vulnerable to the vultures who are ready to swoop in after you're done tearing each other to shreds in the streets. Any action by the people ought to be well thought out and coordinated, otherwise it may well cost you your country.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 3:00:42 PM | 42

Israel the excuse it needs to divert attention from its own atrocities, and maybe even bomb Iran.
Since when does Israel need excuses and justifications?

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21, 2009 3:02:38 PM | 43

I've never supported the essence of the Islamic Republic.

Yet you support Moussavi and his good friend, Rafsanjani, and what are they aside from the "essence" of the Islamic Republic?

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 3:05:00 PM | 44

@outside @38 - Angela Merkel et al now call for a new election

This is a sign that it is indeed over. Only now the 'western leaders' dare to say such things because now they know that saying so will not change anything.

As Arnold expressed:

Obama until now had remained publicly neutral because he understands that a statement in support of the protesters is far more likely to discredit them than to inspire them. As it has become clear that there is nothing left to lose, Obama is now free to speak to his domestic audience that wants the US president to openly take the side of protest against Ahmadinejad's government.

Same goes for Merkel ...

Posted by: b | Jun 21, 2009 3:06:58 PM | 45

hmm you are probably right b.

by the way - what did Ali Larijani really say?

1. http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=197302

2. http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/larijani-and-the-uprising.html

to be fair to 2. this is Press tv http://www.presstv.ir/aboutus.aspx saying the following

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/98645.htm?sectionid=351020101

lost in translation?

Posted by: outsider | Jun 21, 2009 3:25:02 PM | 46

(44):

"Yet you support Moussavi and his good friend, Rafsanjani, and what are they aside from the "essence" of the Islamic Republic?

More vicious lies. I am on record on this Blog as stating that I and everyone I knew were going to boycott the election till the sparks really flew in the final week of campaigning and 2 candidates said the Constitution needed to be changed. Grow up, will you?

Why do you keep trying to paint me as 'defender of the Islamic Republic', or 'defender of Rafsanjani' whom I've constantly referred to as the most corrupt person on Earth? Your constant misrepresentations seem designed consciously to exhaust me by forcing me to continually deny your lies and prevent me from providing other information such as in my next thread. Stop it.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 3:34:39 PM | 47

"It's Over"???

Shots have suddenly started are ringing out all over Tehran as I write (midnight here), and Tabriz (where the Revolution began in 1978) is in complete lockdown. btw, this proves that Ahmadinejad could not possibly have won Moussavi's stronghold of Azarbaijan where Ehsan's thuggish friends are being particularly (and unsuccessfully) brutal and have been forced to impose a state of Martial Law.

Vote-rigging? Read the latest detailed analytical report from Chatham House which has praised Khamenei's stewardship of Iran during the past decade. They now write the ballots were stuffed beforehand, so what use would monitors have been?


Chatham House Report

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 3:41:57 PM | 48


Paviz,
realistically, this has overall been a big plus for the reformist movement and the mullahs are more than a little nervous. One big obstacle for the reformists I suspect is Ahmadinejad's impressive ability to cultivate the poorer segments of Iranian society. Thats the element the reformists do'nt have an answer for. But the reformists should be very careful not to follow a course that so weakens Iran internally that it is overwhelmed and subsequently partitioned by outsiders.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jun 21, 2009 3:43:09 PM | 49

Jony_b_cool, I fully agree with you, but Iranians are sophisticated and more aware than most other nationalities of the dangers of foreign rule. I have actually argued repeatedly that dictatorship is what has weakened Iran, and not democracy.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 3:57:19 PM | 50

In a statement on his website, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri called for three days of national mourning for those killed. This is Montazeri’s way of getting people to strike informally since people attending funerals cannot be shot. This was the tactic that brought down the Shah since there were funerals each and every day on the 3rd and 40th day after the deaths, so after the first 30 deaths it was continuous and never-ending, with those unrelated to the victims attending in solidarity. I shall attend the Neda funeral tomorrow at the Niloofar Mosque in Abbas Abad, Tehran.

“It’s Over”? No, “It’s Just The Beginning” which would have been a more appropriate title for those witnessing the events and with a knowledge of how the Pahlavi Dynasty was brought to its knees.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 3:57:55 PM | 51

I think Rafsanjani has completely overplayed this thing and his only remaining hands are either to make and agreement (and likely sacrifice Musavi that is starting to look quite desperate) or try to create a revolution. One son and daughter under arrest and what looks like part of one of the councils he theorically controls (or controlled) bypassing him seems to prove that. As far as the internal power play goes Khamenei seems that will finally be free from his influence. He may end as Montazeri or even in exile if he tries to play this thing too far. Khamenei already offered him an 'olive-branch' on his Friday speech defending him against Ahmadinejad. That was the carrot, the stick was clearly the arrest of his sons.

The Pahlavi had no actual support outside their paid goons. And they were openly US stooges. That's not the case for the current regime. As far as we can see the islamic republic, the Pasdaran, the Basji, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have quite a bit of popular support (even by 'reformist' accounts at least a third of the population). And those supporters come from the most radical (fanatic?) part of the population and from those who control the strings of power (military, revolutionary guard the vigilante militias). Without external support guess which direction it could go in this case. And what would mean that external support for the fence-sitters.

Parviz, Montazeri has been openly against the regime for quite a while and wasn't able to change anything. He has been mostly under house arrest for at least a decade for that same reason. Don't put his statements as something surprising or as the cleric class supporting this stupid powerplay.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jun 21, 2009 4:12:14 PM | 52

Iran's religious clerks in Qom and members of the Assembly of Experts are considering the formation of an alternative collective leadership to replace that of the supreme leader. This is why Rafsanjani (Chairman of the Council that elects the Religious Leader) has been so quiet and has spent so much time in Qom with senior dissident Ayatollahs.

Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh was released just now after a brief detention, so it's definitely 'Game On'.

Khamenei screwed up by arranging the national fraud. He would have gotten away with it under normnal circumstances when a mass boycott (as occurred 4 years ago) would have seen the monkey re-elected by default. But the debates were the turning point in 30 years of repressive, fanatical and equally hypocritically religious rule. They were what persuaded me and my friends not just to vote but to turn out in force. Same as occurred with many of the previous 20 million boycotters.

b, do you still think Ahmadinejad won fair and square?

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:13:13 PM | 53

Obamageddon,

Any action by the people ought to be well thought out and coordinated, otherwise it may well cost you your country.

Who is supposed to think out an coordinate it? Opposition leaders? You should remember there is no organized opposition in Iran, as every entity opposed to the regime is killed well before it's born.

So, to see thought out and coordinated action in Iran we could wait for IR ceding it's power (which will never hapen) or for a war. There is no third coordinated way.

Posted by: emes | Jun 21, 2009 4:13:17 PM | 54

b, re your comment:

"the crisis will now peter out. Unfortunately the damage done to Iran's image will only be repaired over a longer time frame. That was certainly not the intend of the people on the streets in Tehran, but likely the intend of the people who planed and started this.

As emes correctly asks above, exactly who is supposed to have organized this forest fire? Please re-read my post 53 for the answer.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:16:32 PM | 55

parviz I guess it is over because otherwise you would be in Teheran organizing and not posting desperately diverse facts on a German English blog :-))

I am posting this a Parviz just to show how simple it is.

Go to sleep it is over ...

outsider

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:24:56 PM | 56

it's over

when parviz has clearly retreated from the possibilities of a general strike into an 'informal' one(whatever that means) we know that this movement does not have the support of the masses

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 4:34:33 PM | 57

it's over

when parviz has clearly retreated from the possibilities of a general strike into an 'informal' one(whatever that means) we know that this movement does not have the support of the masses

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 4:34:33 PM | 58

Outsider, that was a cheap trick, posting in my name.

Posted by: Outsider | Jun 21, 2009 4:36:24 PM | 59

b, would you tell this idiot that you have my both IP coordinates and my complete background?

Would you also ban Outsider for having entered my name in post 56? I did the same to him in post 57 to show how pathetic he is.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:38:24 PM | 60

Sorry, b, I did a reverse impersonation in 59.

Seriously, this habit should be banned. It's both dangerous and reduces the credibility of your Blog when it's so simple to enter another person's name instead of your own. It reduces the Blog to a kindergarten for little boys like outsider.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:42:12 PM | 61

r'giap, when did I retreat from anything? Your tactics are worse than Obamageddon's. I stated early on that it's a lengthy process with lots of starts and stops. It took a year to get rid of the Shah. Can't you read? Or only selectively. I'm wondering about your attention span: Probably too many news items interfering with the advertising.

You are the living (or virtual) proof that Communism is B.S..

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:44:58 PM | 62

The Paper:

Parviz, Montazeri has been openly against the regime for quite a while and wasn't able to change anything. He has been mostly under house arrest for at least a decade for that same reason. Don't put his statements as something surprising or as the cleric class supporting this stupid powerplay.

Montazeri bravely but foolishly opposed Khomeini while the latter was still alive. The time wasn't ripe for Montazeri's proposals. In politics 'Timing' is everything. Khruschev would have been as successful as Gorbachev if Khruschev had tried to liberalize Communism several decades later.

Like the Soviet Union in the Eighties, the Islamic Regime is a system rotting internally under the weight of corruption, backwardness, global arrogance, pure reliance on militarization and control of the populace through domestic barbarity. Montazeri's (and Grand Ayatollah Sanei's and Grand Ayatollah Taeri's and the Qom Seminary's and the Association of Combatant Clerics) encouragements are now fuelling the already blazing fire.

"Stupid power play"? I believe in different horses for different courses. I don't claim the powers of prophecy or wander around like the Monkey claiming there's a halo around my head and that "the entire U.N. was hypnotized by my maiden speech and not a single person blinked for 30 minutes", but I DO know that the clergy has lost its aura, the respect of the people and, more importantly, the FEAR of the people. They're still out there facing down the goons and the Kalashnikovs and, believe me (This is also for you, emes) there are intensive secret debates among even the Guards who don't really want to kill the young unarmed students, women and children. Believe it or not, the Guards still retain respect for having defended the country against Iraq. Now they're being asked to do something totally contrary to their past history.

Don't count on knee-jerk obedience by the military apparatus.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:48:04 PM | 63

Goodnight. More tomorrow when I shall answer all serious comments plus those of Obamageddon, R'giap and baby Baseej Ehsan.

Posted by: Parviz | Jun 21, 2009 4:50:00 PM | 64

Even Perez had his moment of sincerity:

"Everything evil and repulsive about the Iranian regime is reflected in the personality of Ahmadinejad, so in that context he's better for Israel," he added.

VOA News

Posted by: emes | Jun 21, 2009 5:05:03 PM | 65

I think it's over!

I think,they did not have any chance;without political programme and leadership behind them to carry out anger,enthusiasm and energy of this brave people.Political programme which will works for them,and the poeple in general,not to right wing/liberal elite.Also,IMHO there were no solidarity among all strata of society,without mass disobedience/pressure,can't be any success.

I feel sorry for lost lives,for Neda and others.If there is such thing as Heaven, they are there!

I do not want taking either side and go into ideological inane discussion.Again,I just feel sorry for lost lives.The oppressors and tyranny have won again,either it will be Mousavi of new/old President.

Sad!

Posted by: balkanac | Jun 21, 2009 5:23:34 PM | 66

So, to see thought out and coordinated action in Iran we could wait for IR ceding it's power (which will never hapen) or for a war. There is no third coordinated way.

Understood, but without a coordinated effort, and instead a fragmented protest that doesn't represent the entirety of the Iranian people, and not even the majority, or their will, this thing is doomed to fail. If it has no purpose other than to scream "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore," then it's nothing more than running in place. You'll never get from Point A to Point B, because there is no agreed upon Point A or Point B.

Now, if the purpose of the protests, unwitting protesters aside, is to induce a head-splitting crackdown complete with summary executions for the protesters, then I would say, yes, there is a chance of success for that, however limited. If that's the purpose, and it may be, then Israel is either very lucky, or more skilled than even Alice The Kurious imagined.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 5:29:11 PM | 67

Serial killers and politicians share traits

Posted by: balkanac | Jun 21, 2009 5:30:52 PM | 68

Like the Soviet Union in the Eighties, the Islamic Regime is a system rotting internally under the weight of corruption, backwardness, global arrogance, pure reliance on militarization and control of the populace through domestic barbarity.

If that's the case, then why not wait until the rot has so permeated the corpse there can be no effective defense against the people's will. There's no need for an uprising at this time. Allow time to take its course, and start planting the seeds of a new system now, so when the time comes, the new system can use the rotting corpse of the former system as fertilizer for a healthy one?

Of course, that would require you and others to finally, once and for all, to define what you really want, and AGREE upon it. That's a tall order, from what I gather. The Iranian people are not a monolithic group of one mind.

Posted by: Obamageddon | Jun 21, 2009 5:35:04 PM | 69

There is need for Global Revolution

It's time for a second American revolution in the spirit of perestroika

Posted by: balkanac | Jun 21, 2009 5:48:08 PM | 70

Even when the whole thing settles up we will still see a lot of problems. If they are able to finally control the opposing movement and if the iranian leadership has the slightless suspicion of open collaboration by the US or other western powers it will search some payback (as they are used to do, for example in the 80s and 90s). What do they will use? May be Iraq? For example some kind provocation that would produce mass demostrations against the US presence in Iraq would be quite ironic when the western media would try to disregard the 'democratic' voice of the people.

Of course from the other side all our 'freedom loving' western powers will also further the campaign to destroy Iran as a independent power and the propaganda pitch will go up by a few notch. So much for those that were seeing reproachment with Obama (soon to be called Bush The Third). I still see an attack (not an invasion) quite more possible after this event than before. Regime change failed, may be they will keep trying for a bit more disestabilization, perhaps more sanctions. But they will eventually go, with bloody Netanyahu, for the main plan.

Posted by: ThePaper | Jun 21, 2009 5:56:40 PM | 71

So who are these guys, reformers?

Four policemen were shot dead by gunmen...
"All (four) were killed by insurgents carrying pistols with silencers who passed nearby, opened fire, and fled immediately," a police official told AFP of Saturday's incidents.

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Iraq_insurgents_kill_nine_police_06212009.html

Your movement is hijacked, your supporters are Kissinger, Brzezinski, Netanyahu and McCain.

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21, 2009 6:01:35 PM | 72

bbccb

Posted by: zadeh | Jun 21, 2009 6:10:45 PM | 73

Parviz (and others):

To answer a question I think you asked b earlier, not presuming at all to speak for b, but for myself, at this point I'm pretty sure Ahmadinejad won essentially fair and square.

The reason I think this is that Rafsanjani would be able to find out if on election day Khamenei began making calls ordering the elections bureaucracy to fabricate the entire election - and he'd put Khamenei in prison for doing that. And many people who are now in Khamenei's faction against Rafsanjani would agree, given decent evidence of fraud, that Khamenei should be removed from power and they'll need to appoint a new factional leader.

I don't doubt that there are irregularities like those in US Florida or Ohio, but those only matter in close elections.

Statements like "they didn't count the vote at all, they just made up numbers so Ahmadinejad would win" were barely plausible the day after the election. Today, after a week has passed during which evidence could have come up, those statements are just nonsense. Ridiculous. Dozens, hundreds, maybe thousands of people would have to be in on the conspiracy, and none willing to talk to the head of the Assembly of Experts who is also the richest man in Iran. There is no chance of this.

But I feel like we're getting close to beating a dead horse on the election issue. A more interesting question for me is: what exactly do you want?

Freedom to wear what you want and drink alcohol if you want - if that's what this is about, you have to acknowledge there is a possibility that Iranians do not favor that position as a majority. I think that is a valid desire, but I don't think that is the basis of a successful revolution in Iran, or even a successful campaign for national elected office in Iran.

Government officials not profiting on Iran's economy - Mousavi vs Ahmadinejad seems like you've chosen the wrong side as far as commitment to refrain from benefiting financially from office.

Mousavi inaugurated President of Iran - that's up to Rafsanjani. If he gets evidence of fraud - and not "I thought Mousavi would win this district" but instead "I followed orders to pre-stuff ballot boxes in this district" then Mousavi will be nominated. If he cannot, then that will not happen. The thing is that if there was wide-spread ballot-stuffing, enough to change the election, a lot of people know. A lot of people know who would like to be owed a favor by Mousavi and Rafsanjani who would be the most powerful people in Iran if they confess.

If there is no real evidence of fraud, then Mousavi does not deserve to be inaugurated president, and nothing you do in the streets will change that.

So what do you want?

I hate to sound condescending, and I know I do not know more about Iran that you but I do feel like there is a naivete in the protesting. I can't figure out what you're trying to accomplish. I can't figure out what exactly you want to replace the current political system with. I also do not think there is a broad consensus in Iran that the country should go in the direction you'd propose - but if there was such a consensus, the system is flexible enough that it would go without street protests.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Jun 21, 2009 6:15:38 PM | 74

parviz

please, there has been nothing serious in your posts since you suggested there were shock troops of hamas or hezbollah.. you are a one man propaganda bureau. evangalism in anyone's arguments reveals their essential hollowness

hal f this thread & many other have been given over to the most fantastic concoctions - it is clear that the repressive state apparatus in iran is concentrating control but in that they are no different from many other states - but the fabrications torn from whole cloth have made it even harder to determine exactly what that apparatus is doing

put simply - i do not trust to any degree - what our iranian friends here are telling us - its agenda is too clear, its purpose concentrated, its methodology eerily similar to other incursions here in the past

i hope the real situation will oblige them to be truthful & something that passes for information can be shared - not the cnnisation of the soul we have been witness to for the last few days

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 6:24:55 PM | 75

Press tv is reporting that the guardian council has announced that the number of votes exceeded the number of elegible voters in 50 cities. This seems to be a serious change. We may see the system correct itself and the gc move towards new elections. That would be by far the best solution now. Posting from phone

Posted by: Lysander | Jun 21, 2009 6:58:48 PM | 76


I do not know more about Iran

Well, arnold?

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 21, 2009 7:08:37 PM | 77

parviz...where do you stand on the nuclear enrichment issue?

Posted by: dh | Jun 21, 2009 7:11:35 PM | 78

I think all the talk throughout the years on this blog worshiping "the people" who dare oppose oppression, blah, blah, has been solidly qualified by a veneration deserved of the people so long as they are incontrovertibly hostile to "America."

That's really all it boils down to.

The bizarre condescension of some here like arnold, who admits (and a visit to his website confirms completely) that he knows jackass about Iran, is comical and terrifying at once. It highlights another intellectually mortifying contradiction. For years here, the greatest sensitivity to the inherent wisdom of indigenous political actors has dictated, rightly so, a presumption that in the absence of information, some faith is owed by us to the intelligence of people "on the ground" who know better than we do why someone would risk death protesting a perceived tyranny.

Well, fuck all that! One man's revolution is another moa blogger's counter-revolution. damn.

Posted by: slothrop | Jun 21, 2009 7:27:38 PM | 79

http://www.informationdissemination.net/2009/06/reality-of-generation-ys-virtual-world.html
approach of the "pork" crowd

Posted by: constant | Jun 21, 2009 7:38:31 PM | 80

http://www.informationdissemination.net/2009/06/reality-of-generation-ys-virtual-world.html
approach of the "pork" crowd

Posted by: constant | Jun 21, 2009 7:38:31 PM | 81

the problem with most of us (iranians)is that sometimes
we dont know when to stop.
we lose our temper too soon.
we accuse each other of somthings that only exists in our own head.
and in a debate we are only satisfied when the other side unconditionally surrender.
This is my oponion for what it is worth.I agree with the chap who said rafsanjani is overplying his hand. this thing has been brewing between him and ahmadinejad for quite a long time.if you listen to the supreme leader speech on friday he very briefly hinted about a letter(from obama).the content of the letter nobody knows exactly.but it is apperrently very polite friendly and concilitary.it has always been the best known secret in iran that if anybody would start a normal relation with the west it would be rafsanjani&co.because most people around him are the businessmen who have invested quite a lot of their wealth in businesses with the west,among them many sons and daughters of some clergies. now with ahmadinajad first term in the office as the president and slogan of GO EAST it started to sound the alarms in rafsanjanis camp and also ahmadinejad again under the slogan of putting the oil money on the working class peoples table started a widespread purge of the top managers in the oil and gas industries. that cut off many lucrative cantracts and commissions favouring rafsanjani and the reformers camp.being afraid of a grand bargain being struck between america on one side and ahmadinejad with the blessing of the supreme leader on the other side put the fear right in the heart of rafsanjani camp.rafsanjani is 75 yrs old for him it was now or never.so rafsanjani being rafsanjani throgh and through dug up mousavi to put in the office and stop the rot.it was do or die for him and reformers. if ahmadinejad could (still can) come back from the bargaining table with america and say to the nation this was the fruit of all his resistance against the west and with sanctions off and normalcy of diplomatic and trade back in iran this would be goodby to reformist movement for a long time if not forever and financial disaster to rafsanjanis trade camp. I am devastated with the news of the death of so many of my countryman and women as every iranian and all peace loving people all over the world is.but this could have been avoided with a little bit of hindesight.after two days of relatively peaceful demonstration by huge number of peaple and a real show of force mousavi dould have called off the demonstration but say that they will stage the same show of force every thursday or friday and that way he could have excerted a tremendous amount of pressure on both ahmadinejad and khamenei and announce the establishment of a new movement or party and start working towards fortifying his position in the next elections of the parliment,councils,gaurdian councils and other elections.
weather rafsanjani and mousavi overcooked or not we have to wait and see.this is not end of the story in the iranian political arena

Posted by: zadeh | Jun 21, 2009 7:39:21 PM | 82

Sloth, I don't see any purpose in engaging.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Jun 21, 2009 8:02:04 PM | 83

@ yuri why are you attributing the actions of the Iraqi resistance onto the motives of the Iranian protesters? Maybe it's late at night and you're confused I dunno but I do know that the ping-pong debate that's been going on here all weekend especially those parts of it that resort to attacking the character and motives of those who hold an opposing point of view, are ridiculous and tedentious.
Although it must have the resident misanthrope creaming his/her jeans at the sight of such naked vitriol, all it does for normal humans is lead them to question yet again why any Iranian who cares about what is going on in Iran would bother to join in.

I hafta say that the fact no one else seems to have picked up on Yuri's link tends to support the notion that there is a heap of shouting, plus the typical quiet nastiness from the sidelines, but no one is listening to anything anyone else is saying. In other words a thoroughly pointless debate.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jun 21, 2009 8:03:57 PM | 84

Parviz and other Iranians, especially those sympathetic to the protesters, I still really would like to hear what, as specifically as you can, you are trying to accomplish, and how the protests tie into your strategy for that.

Posted by: Arnold Evans | Jun 21, 2009 8:04:52 PM | 85

... because the nation ruled by the unworthy rulers still must be defended from its many enemies.

http://tinyurl.com/lsofx2

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21, 2009 8:07:46 PM | 86

Parviz @ 3:

They've realized murder is counter-productive and Neda has become a national symbol of regime brutality, more so than Zahra Kazemi who was illegally taking pictures outside Evin Prison despite signs along the walls forbidding photography.

Yah, how dare that evil stupid bitch take a picture near a sign forbidding pictures. She should have been raped by the entire Repuplican Guard not just one or two in a dungeon. The sepah should have been awarded a medal for pulling her fingernails out for defending the Islamic Republics honer and integrity and protecting the laws of the people. How dare she take a picture of protesting students that might possibly discredit the Islamic regime. Most appalling is that nobel laureate whore Shirin Ebaidi having the gall to actually defend her. They should have dragged that slut out in the street and skinned her alive.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21, 2009 8:14:37 PM | 87

b) Right on, my brutha!

The first "Green Revolution" was sending Bibi into harm's way in 2007 to oust General Musharraf, and that worked better than any KGB operation ever did. Her $B'r husband Zardari is every bit a Shah of Pakistan, so much so that Obama was able to say today, "We Have No Intention Of Sending US Troops Into Pakistan." Well no duhh!

That's what the next Congressional cycle of $107B "Perpetual Emergency Funding for Iraqistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Waziristan, Baluchistan, Tajikistan, Iranistan, North Koreastan and other undisclosed national security purposes" is for!

Obama's Little Green Book, "The People's Baaaksheesh Utopia!"

The second "Green Revolution" in Iran has apparently failed, but as you point out, probably failed that way a pit viper biting you on the ankle fails to get Great Shaytan a hot meal of blood, but you're walking dead anyway.

The third "Green Revolution" will be Afghanistan this August, when Obushautomata either keeps Karzai on a tight leash, or inserts Ghani as Karzai's doppleganger, they're both Western expatriate apparatchik's preparing the ground work for 5c-on-the-$1 royalties extraction of Afghanistan's $500B to $1,000B in strategic natural resources, leaving the 25M internally displaced refugees in a narcostate by 2025, but as Don's Rumsfeld whispered in George Bush's ear: "History? By then we'll all be dead!"

Posted by: Mon Frere | Jun 21, 2009 8:17:18 PM | 88

@ yuri why are you attributing the actions of the Iraqi resistance onto the motives of the Iranian protesters?

I'm not, I'm illustrating that the protesters, IMO of course, have been hijacked and are easily made use of by provocateurs and assassins and they are leaving their nation open to Machiavellian schemers. I don't see a change in tactics which is my main criticism because what Iran wants is really none of my business.

In my estimation, and as Parviz himself pointed out a while back, ( Khamenei's Aura of Invincibility Shattered ) things are not going to go back to normal. This should be a major success and one to be made use of without taking down the nation. Mousavi, as far as I can tell, is indeed open to the accusation that the deaths will be on his head.

As for the comments section, it is a trial and unfortunately the fascinating and important information gets quickly swamped with accusations. Pity.

Posted by: yuri | Jun 21, 2009 8:19:24 PM | 89

Thank you, zadeh @82.

Posted by: Thrasyboulos | Jun 21, 2009 8:23:29 PM | 90

@Debs is dead

I did pick up on it, it just wasn't worth replying to, like most of the other comments on this thread and others. They are so basically wrong, that I don't know where to start, and believe me I've tried.

It's been a huge mistake for me to post on this blog. A big waste of time. Hours and hours, finding numbers, facts, articles, giving background of the situation. Painstakingly answering people's questions, one after another. But glub glub the same shit always floats to the top.

Here's Eric Hooglund (foremost scholar on Iran for 30 years) analysis of the myth of AN winning the poor rural areas.


I also suggest just not posting any more stories on Iran. If you really think it's over, it's over. Please I beg of you, leave Iran alone. Talk about Israel or Iraq or something. Dennis Ross. Do the world a favor. No more long threads of uneducated opinions, by thickheaded people unwilling to do basic background reading.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21, 2009 8:23:53 PM | 91

Also the blabbering of improper french on this forum by people who have no understanding of the language accompanies nicely the blabbering of pseudo-leftism by people who know nothing of dialetctical materialism.


casse-toi "mon frère".


bye.

Posted by: Amir S. | Jun 21, 2009 8:29:52 PM | 92

would like to echo Thrasyboulos @ 90

Posted by: Lizard | Jun 21, 2009 8:42:09 PM | 93

& i too thank zadeh for this information

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jun 21, 2009 9:17:21 PM | 94

Debs is dead @ 84:

at the sight of such naked vitriol, all it does for normal humans is lead them to question yet again why any Iranian who cares about what is going on in Iran would bother to join in.

Actually for such a small community there has been a lot of Iranians that have joined the discussion. Those that get attacked by the regulars are not attacked because they are Iranian but for their views they have posted. This is normal to question one's motives when something seems awry. Most of the attacks have been agianst Parviz because nobody can figure out where he is coming from and he has openly posted bullshit like armed Lebanese Arabs on the streets of Tehran suppressing the people.

He has distorted the conversation so much that posters like Cynthia actually thought this was a secular uprising against the theocracy and used Parviz name as proof. He says he is agianst the theocracy even he devotes a front page post to praising the cleric Khatemi and predicting he would win the election and it would enshrine a new era of prosperity and a grand bargain with the US. If he wouldn't attack the regular posters with name calling and denigration he probably wouldn't be attacked himself.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21, 2009 9:18:16 PM | 95

Sam @ 87

She should have been raped by the entire Repuplican [sic] Guard not just one or two in a dungeon.
Iran does not have Republican Guards, but the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps [Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enghelab-e Eslami], that is
حرس الثورة الإسلامية
not
الحرس الجمهوري,
in case your mother tongue is Arabic, not Persian.

The sepah should have been awarded a medal for pulling her fingernails out.
I have not seen evidence as to (1) the IRGC detaining her; (2) the IRGC torturing her; (3) the IRGC pulling her fingernails to defend the Islamic Republics "honer". Some references on this is highly appreciated.

Thank you.

Posted by: Dragonfly | Jun 21, 2009 9:23:38 PM | 96

Iran does not have Republican Guards

Just a slip of the tongue while busy reading and posting Degonfly. Sorry for the error.

in case your mother tongue is Arabic, not Persian.

Now that's a first. I'm a 100% whitey.

Some references on this is highly appreciated.

I already posted the link yesterday but just for you I'll do it again:

Iranian-Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi died in Iranian custody on July 11, 2003, almost three weeks after she was arrested for taking pictures outside a prison during a student protest in Tehran.
...
Evidence of a very brutal rape.

A skull fracture, two broken fingers, missing fingernails, a crushed big toe and a broken nose.

Severe abdominal bruising, swelling behind the head and a bruised shoulder.

Deep scratches on the neck and evidence of flogging on the legs.

CBC

Your welcome

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21, 2009 10:30:04 PM | 97

Here's another interesting tidbit from Eric Hooglund (hat tip Amir) in an interview by Zaman when asked if Iranian expats could overthrow the Iranian regime:

No it can’t be. Many Iranians outside the country are not interested in that, even though they don’t like the regime. But it could be as much as 20 percent of adult ex-patriots in the US who are preoccupied with overthrowing the regime. They work with the neoconservatives or whoever they can.

Some intersting answers on nukes and the main players

In light of the disaster in Iraq I find this truly amazing.

Posted by: Sam | Jun 21, 2009 10:53:38 PM | 98

Sam, the CBC has shown itself to be completely unreliable so far as news from Iran is concerned.

And you are not much better: the case of Zahra Kazemi was considerably more complex than the faux factoids with which you regale your unwitting readers. You note too that it occurred in 2003, during the Presidency of someone who was not Ahmedinajad or a supporter of his policies.

As to your self-characterisation as "100% whitey" it probably encapsulates your ability to comment on Iranian society.

Posted by: ellis | Jun 21, 2009 11:07:47 PM | 99

sam #87
dreadful wording, sam, i always steemed your contribution, but this is disturbing: "bitch", "raped", "whore", "slut"
and then at #95, "denigration"
words matter, dude, and i'm not talking about PC bs...
sincerely,

Posted by: rudolf | Jun 21, 2009 11:27:42 PM | 100

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