Myanmar - Politics, Media Manipulation and Help

BANGKOK (Reuters) - An international aid agency has confirmed some cases of cholera in Myanmar's cyclone-hit Irawaddy delta but the number was in line with normal levels in previous years, an aid official said on Friday.
...
"We don't have an explosion of cholera. Thus far the rate of cholera is no greater than the background rate that we would be seeing in Myanmar during this season," [World Health Organization representative Maureen Birmingham] said.
Some cholera confirmed in cyclone-hit Myanmar

My 12 year old RC cars and Lego cranes co-enthusias, Lukas, today told me that cholera was a big problem in Burma because of the recent storm and the criminal non-action of the government there. He had read such in the local right-wing fish-wrap this morning which had a headline to that regard.

I can't blame him for getting the impression he had. But, according to the WHO, it was obviously wrong. So I explained to him that there are always some cholera cases in nearly every society and especially in hot and moist places with little technical hygiene facilities. Cholera is also relative easy to heal, I said. I then laid out that there are political reasons that drive such propaganda. That's what he immediately got.

There are other scare stories around now of "dead bodies floating" in Myanmar and that these may cause epidemics. These are just as wrong as the cholera stories:

"There has never been a documented case of a post-natural disaster epidemic that could be traced to dead bodies," the WHO said in a statement.

What many get from the news on Myanmar are scare stories about a bad government and lots of people dying because of that government.

Not that I like the military dictatorship in Myanmar, but the people who recently died there were killed by a natural disaster. A storm that drove an unexpected high wave onto a low laying area. No Myanmar government of any form could have prevented that.

But the hypocrites are out in full force:

Cont. reading: Myanmar - Politics, Media Manipulation and Help

The Delusional Addict

Here is a story on delusional addicts who believe they have leverage towards their drug dealers.

Democrats in the U.S. Senate have threatened to withhold military supplies from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors unless they pump more oil.
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"We have a strategic partnership with the Saudis, but it seems to me a partnership works two ways," Sen. Byron L. Dorgan, D-N.D., chairman of the Democratic Policy Committee, said at a news conference Thursday. "The Saudis want to purchase sophisticated weapons from our country. ... They should understand there are certain things we need from them as well."
US Dems threaten Saudis with arms cutoff, April 26, 2008

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Cont. reading: The Delusional Addict

Rovian Appeasement

Yesterday Bush gave a speech in front of the Knesset that accused Obama of appeasement.

This was a sole U.S. political issue - the Knesset degraded itself to a rent-out high school stage.

The Rovian idea behind this is to move the Jewish votes, two thirds of which usually goes to Democrats, towards the Republican candidate.

But given that McCain lacks serious fund raising capacity, moving more zionist billionaires to cough up more money for McCain and the party, may have been the more important issue here.

Rove, a mass mailer by trade, always thinks in the frame of arranging statistical 'blocks' of 'targets'. Rove is essentially trying to buy off, give in to, or appease a certain group of voters.

But these voters no longer have the demand he assumes and tries to appease. There are many  signs that the Jewish vote in the U.S. has moved beyond radical zionism.

His efforts have therefore some general utility in the monetary range. But I doubt the utility of such assumed appeasement in the electoral dimension.

Then again, Diebold may take care of that.

What's your take on this?

Planless McCain

Text of McCain's Speech on First-Term Goals

So, what I want to do today is take a little time to describe what I would hope to have achieved at the end of my first term as President.
...
[1.947 words list of 200 or so somewhat chimerical things I hope to achieve]
...
Thank you

Your welcome Mr. McCain.

When I read through that, I found lots of aims one could argue about. But I found not a single word in there on how to achieve these aims.

Y'know, hope is not a plan.

What are the plans?

In Search Of: Successful Humanitarian Intervention

A request to readers:

I am looking for an example of a successful humanitarian intervention.

Successful in the sense that

• the sum of positive effects minus negative effects ended up greater than zero
• the sum effect would likely not have been achieved with other means

Humanitarian in the sense that

• there was a non-artificial humanitarian need
• there was no hidden political agenda

Intervention in the sense that

• military means were used (not necessarily active fighting)
• by one nation state (group) into another state
• against the wish of the target state authorities
• limited in time, i.e. didn't end in occupation or permanent termination of the target state

Criticism of the above definition is welcome.

Is there any case that fits in completely?
Are there any cases that nearly fit in?

Bush Shuns, Gates Demands Appeasement

Says something about "unity of message" ...

Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is -- the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history. (Applause.)
President Bush Addresses Members of the Knesset , May 15, 2008

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates called on Wednesday for more unofficial contacts with Iran, saying this might eventually open a pathway to more substantive dialogue between the governments.
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"My own view, just my personal view, would be we ought to look for ways outside of government to open up the channels and get more of a flow of people back and forth," he said in a speech to the American Academy of Diplomacy, a group of retired U.S. diplomats.
Gates urges more nongovernment contacts with Iran, May 15, 2008

The Senator Bush quotes was William Borah, a Republican from Idaho.

False Weather Warning by U.S. Military to Press Myanmar

A widely repeated Associated Press report yesterday claimed that a second cyclone is threatening Myanmar.

The report was false and likely based on U.S. military propaganda. It may have led to further death in Myanmar.

Here is what AP wrote:

A second cyclone was forming Wednesday near Myanmar, less than two weeks after it was devastated by a killer storm, the UN said.

The United Nations' weather center is tracking a nascent tropical storm that is likely to become a cyclone, said Amanda Pitt, the spokeswoman of the world body's humanitarian relief program, in Bangkok, Thailand.

"This is terrible," she told reporters, adding that it could further jeopardize the people who survived Cyclone Nargis on May 3 and the efforts to distribute aid for them.

The UN's World Meteorological Center said on its Web site that "the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good."

The UN World Meterological Center (WMO) never gave a warning for a second cyclone because there was never one to expect.

The actual "warning" was given by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy in Hawaii to the Regional UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Bangkok. From there it went to press agencies and the media. The U.S. military center later downgraded the likelihood of a second cyclone in the Myanmar area to "poor."

Is cyclone prediction by the U.S. military so bad that it changes its judgement within hours from "good chance" to "poor chance" for another one?

Cont. reading: False Weather Warning by U.S. Military to Press Myanmar

George Will's Misleading Quotes

In a column aptly titled Alice in Housing Land George Will goes through the looking glass.

He explain that there is no housing crisis and therefore legislative measures to help borrowers are not needed. To make his case, Will uses highly selective number and distorted quotes. He writes:

One symptom of the "crisis" is that housing prices have fallen. How far is unclear. Estimates range from 3 percent to 13 percent. Questions arise.

Do young couples struggling to purchase their first homes concur with the sudden consensus that the decline in prices is a national misfortune? The Economist reports: "Monthly payments on a typical house with a 30-year mortgage and 20 peris cent downpayment were 18.5 percent of the median family's income in February, down from almost 26 percent at the peak -- and close to the historical average."

If prices have only fallen 3-13%, how come the share of family income that is needed to pay for a house has decreased by 40% (from 26 to 18.5)?

Will does not explain that. But he points to the usually reliable Economist to support his  hacktacular non-crisis thesis. So let's check. Here is what the Economist wrote about the percentages Will cites:

Cont. reading: George Will's Misleading Quotes

Side Effects

A Democrat won yesterday's vote for a House seat in Mississippi's 1st district with 54% to 46%. An 8 points winning margin in a district where in 2004 62% voted for Bush, 37% for Kerry. This was the third Republican seat that went to a Democrat in a recent by-election.

With the economy worsening, there is no reasonable way the Democrats and their presidential candidate can lose the November elections. Any poll that gives McCain a chance to win over Obama is likely flawed. In November, the GOP will get trashed.

Still, the House Republicans hope a new slogan for their policies product will help.

"The Change You Deserve"

The slogan was copied from a campaign for an antidepressant, Effexor. The slogan will not work because the product has not changed and people who have taken the medicine over the last years already noticed the side effects:

Headache, drowsiness, dizziness, nausea, weakness, dry mouth, constipation, loss of appetite, weight loss, blurred vision, tiredness, nervousness, trouble sleeping, sweating, or yawning may occur.
...
stomach/abdominal pain, chest pain, persistent cough, shortness of breath, bloody/black/tarry stools, vomit that looks like coffee grounds, easy bruising/bleeding, fast/irregular/pounding heartbeat, muscle weakness/cramps, yellowing eyes/skin, dark urine, seizures, unusual tiredness.

Fans on manliness, like Chris Matthews, have experienced a special one, "a painful or prolonged erection lasting 4 or more hours." As they did not see their doctor and never stopped to swallow the drug, as is reommended, they will now have to live with "permanent damage."

The U.S. people know it is high time to get rid of such medication. The race is thereby already over.

Still, the media will drive this on and make it look competitive because that is what sells their product.

But all international agents know this is over and now adjust their behavior accordingly. They rightly assume that U.S. policies will see significant change.

It will be interesting to follow that sea change especially in the Middle East but elsewhere too. That change itself will have some interesting side effects too.

The post below shows one of them.

Stalemate on Iran

Finally someone important says what the 'Iranian nuclear issue' really is about - Iran's security:

Russia says "Six" could guarantee Iran security

YEKATERINBURG, Russia (Reuters) - The six powers negotiating with Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program could offer Tehran security guarantees, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Wednesday.

"I think the 'Six' could make the following step: directly put concrete offers on the negotiating table, give Iran security guarantees and ensure a more distinguished place in negotiations on the situation in the Middle East," Lavrov said.
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"I am convinced that this is an effective way of relieving tensions in the region and regulating the situation surrounding Iran's nuclear problem," Lavrov said.

But of course the U.S. wants 'regime change' and has no intention to let Iran live in peace:

U.S. says Iran security pledge not on table in atom row

"Security guarantees are not something we are looking at the moment," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in Israel as President George W. Bush launched a Middle East visit.

"As we've been saying, details (of the incentive package) are still being worked out and will be presented to the Iranian government soon. The one who needs to give security guarantees is Iran, because they keep threatening to wipe Israel off the map," Johndroe told reporters when asked about Moscow's idea.

With the U.S. blocking any possibly reasonable offer, the 'Six' will of course achieve nothing. Sanctions will be circumvented and new security council action will likely be blocked.

Stalemate until whatever happens.

What to do about Hezbollahstan

The U.S. allies in Lebanon lost out against Hizbullah. The Shia in Lebanon, represented by Hizbullah, are some 35% of the population. They may now actually achieve a better representation than the 20% of parliament seats allocated to them by the Taif accord.

Universial suffrage is a pain in the ass, if a third of votes are against the imperial, colonist USrael agenda. Something must be done about such an awesome Hezbollahstan.

The neocons, out of ideas, have their usual answer:

Bombing the runway of the Damascus airport for the role [Syria] plays in serving as a conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah would also be an appropriate signal of American displeasure.

Another idea, from an Israeli, is a bit more refined:

Upon the elimination of the Christian hegemony in Lebanon, the old Israeli interest in maintaining an independent Lebanon will dissipate. The real alternatives are an Iranian Lebanon or a Syrian Lebanon. We do not know the price Syria will be willing to pay for a secret pledge that Israel would not do a thing to prevent Lebanon’s annexation to Syria, but it is worthwhile looking into it – this price may be Syrian willing to renounce its claims for the Golan.

Pretty cool and much more thoughtful than the bomb, bomb, bomb neconed one.

"I've stolen your Porsche. So what. Now stop nagging about that little robbery and I'll let you take your neighbours Jetta."

Chutzpa is a quite inimitable word.

Texan Characteristics of Terrorists

Via Cyrus Safdari a flyer (front, back) by the Counterterrorism Intelligence Unit of the Texas Department of Public Safety. The title:

TERRORISM - What the Public Needs to Know

This brochure is intended to provide information that will help YOU to help US in our everyday effort to identify and stop terrorism-before it becomes a deadly and tragic reality.

The flyer goes on to list "Some Characteristics of Terrorists":

• Typically focused and committed to their cause.
• Team oriented and very disciplined.
• Trained to be familiar with their physical environment whether it be a 747 jumbo jet or a courthouse.
• Will employ a variety of vehicles and communicate predominately by cellphone, E Mail or text messenging services.
• Well prepared to spend years in "sleeper mode" until it comes time to attack.
• In many cases may appear to fit in and not draw attention to themselves.
• Will appear normal in appearance and behavior while portraying themselves as a tourist, student or business person.
• May be found traveling in mixed groups of men, women and children of varying ages who are unaware of their purpose.
• Trained to avoid confrontations with law enforcement and therefore can be expected to portray a "nice guy" image.
• Known to use disguises or undergo plastic surgery especially when featured on police wanted posters list some.

Cyrus admits that he fits all the above. I am now preparing an email to the Special Crimes Service of Texas to turn him in.

Who else here do I need to list?

Confess!

Okay, I will add myself. I also fit the above and even some other additional criteria laid out in the flyer.

Recently, I made a large cash purchase of beer, wine and liquor. Texas seems to have reason to suspect that terrorists are doing such. I also own a relative large amount of clothing, especially of Levi jeans. This, according to the flyer, is another of many sign that I am a terrorist.

At least in Texas, where everything is a bit bigger than elsewhere.

Crunch

Wimberly said he'd recently sold a home in [Atlanta's] West End that tells the tale of what's happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000.
Tax assessors boggled by housing dip

Ouch!

That house may have hit its bottom, though the article points to some homes in the $10,000 range. The next step in the downward spiral is sinking tax revenue and lots of layoffs by cities, counties and states.

Two years from now things might start to look better again.

Maliki's Thugs

The U.S. and its Iraqi puppets opened another fight against the resistance in Mosul. For starters, they killed a family riding in a car during a curfew. Did these people knew at all that there was a curfew?

The truce over Sadr City is somewhat mysterious as the sides do not seem to agree about its conditions. I find it unlikely that it will hold. There are good reasons for the Sadrist and the resistance to be very suspicious of Maliki's words and deeds. I'd rather not have his thugs around my neighborhood.

London Times: Parading of fighters' bodies taunts Mahdi Army

A humvee military vehicle idles on a broad avenue as an Iraqi army soldier walks nonchalantly past without so much as a glance at the body slung across the bonnet.

The dead man’s trousers have been pulled down to his ankles, exposing white underwear below a torn T-shirt drenched in blood from wounds to his chest and side.

Behind is a second Humvee with another body sprawled over the front, arms and legs outstretched. On his white shirt, a large bloodstain indicates the wound that may have killed him. A soldier sitting on the roof dangles his legs over the windscreen and seems to prod the corpse’s stomach with his boot.
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A second video obtained from the same source purports to show prisoners being beaten in a police station in the Shi’ite holy city of Karbala, south of Baghdad.

McClatchy: Sadr City residents fear a cease-fire means more violence

Abdul Hassan pulled out his phone to show a public hanging of three men. They stood on police trucks with nooses around their necks as a crowd of people looked on and then the trucks were driven away and the men were hung. Another showed men shot by the Iraqi Security Forces and then burned.
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Abdul Hassan said the videos were shot in the southern cities of Karbala and Nassiriyah, and he worried that the same would happen in Sadr City if the Iraqi Army had free reign.

But of course the U.S. just had to free Iraq of Saddam's brutal security forces ...

More Annals of Reporting

Smuggling to Iran rife in dangerous Gulf waters

KHASAB, Oman (Reuters) - Smugglers pile boxes high on their speedboats, covering them with tarpaulin before zipping off into the sunset on the short but dangerous journey across the strategic Strait of Hormuz from Oman to Iran.

The last time I checked the sun sets in the west.

Khasab, Oman lies south of Iran. Its harbour is shielded from the western gulf by some miles of headland.

So how much are we to believe from the rest of the report?

They Call This Reporting ...

In a clearly partisan article the Observer writes:

In a speech on Friday that triggered the worst violence since the civil war that tore the country apart between 1975 and 1990, Nasrallah pledged to 'cut the hand' that touched his fighters' weapons and rockets, accusing the ruling coalition of being 'Israelis dressed in suits speaking Arabic'.

So who "triggered" this strife? Was it really Nasrallah? How does that fit with this view further down in the piece:

'Tackling the airport and telephone system was the first time since the Syrian withdrawal that the government has taken practical measures to deal with the resistance,' said Patrick Haenni , Beirut-based analyst for the International Crisis Group. 'This was a paradigm shift by the government and it was met by a paradigm shift by Hizbollah, who said they would never turn their weapons in.'

So who triggered?

And the "worst violence since the civil war"? Somehow the indiscriminent bombing Israel did during its 2006 lost war on Lebanon, with over a 1,000 civilian death, seem to have been much violent and worse than the twenty something dead on all sides in this episode.

But maybe we should just forget about that?

Leave Us Alone

Re-reading the post below, you might think that I root for the Myanmar government, a military-Buddhist dictatorship.

I do not.

But I also do not root for western 'intervention' to 'save' the people of whatever country and to force our way of living on them. To assume that the 'west', which comprises just some 800 million of 6,500 million people living on this planet, knows best, is ridiculous.

There are other ways of living together than ours, other ways of representation and government acceptable for the people we simply do not understand and value because we are ignorant of them.

There was a big fight over such believe and ignorance issues in the 17th century in Europe. Nobody did win in that fight. But a third of the central European population died prematurely because of that very, very long war.

Peace came when folks acknowledged that there is something like sovereignty. The right of a people to assert their way of living without exterior interference.

We might not like their way. We might think those folks are 'suppressed'. But do we really know? How?

As long as a nation does not hurt other nations just leave it alone. Help if there is some catastrophe. But let's not try to change their way of living because ours seem to us to be superior.

Our view is not universal just because we believe it is.

False Intervention

WaPo editors, using the colonial name of Myanmar, write on what they call Burma's Blockade

Three years ago, the United Nations adopted a doctrine to deal with exactly this sort of situation. Known as "right to protect," it foresaw the Security Council authorizing a humanitarian rescue operation even without the cooperation of the national government. Yet France's attempt to raise Burma's case before the Security Council on Thursday was opposed by China, Russia, South Africa and other developing countries, which apparently cherish the ideology of nonintervention more than the lives of hundreds of thousands of Burmese.

First: There is no "right to protect" but a "responsibility to protect" which the United Nations consciously restricted to

protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity;

None of these criteria fits the situation in Myanmar. Any intervention would thereby be illegal.

Second: When New Orleans was under water Cuba offered to send 1,586 disaster-trained physicians to help. The U.S. declined despite an obvious need.

Where was Fred Hiatt's call for black helicopter intervention against the U.S. when those doctors were not allowed to reach the needy?

As China Hand proves, Myanmar has accepted and received international aid at least since Wednesday from multiple groups and countries without any problems. But the government resists demands to allow USAID 'experts' on its soil. Given that USAID is often nothing more than the 'humanitarian' arm of the CIA, there are certainly reasons for it to do so.